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Just an observation.
Regards,
OW
As for market share - you can define it by total sales or total profits. If you go by the latter Apple is as dominant as ever, maybe moreso given Amazon and others lose money on every tablet sold and in the case of Amazon barely makes money on the sales of other things on its website from its tablet strategy. Of course Apple will lose marketshare on volume. They'd have to give away their product to maintain marketshare on volume. As it is they have a hard time having enough production to meet demand from people willing to pay the most premium prices on the market. The market share argument is a bad one as it brings in giveaways and artificially low pricing to a large segment of the market that a sensible highly profitable company will not play in. Be careful of Amazon. When the hedge funds start to dump it after another bad quarterly performance it is going to be very very ugly. All their pricing announcements on lowering the Kindle prices further are nearing downgrade territory and it's starting to happen. Amazon has trained me well. I'll buy certain things from them as long as their prices are the lowest in the market and I get free shipping and no sales tax. The moment any one of those three mantras change I'll buy locally. That is not a good or sustainable business model.
Interesting comments on Amazon, not just the above point. But in reference to the funds, where does Apple stand in the holders of its shares as we do the last two weeks to the end of the quarter: will they be selling Apple from their portfolios or will they buy in to adjust their holdings for the quarter's end? Its major holders are institutions and funds if I recall the terminology from the analysis I read.
I looked last year when I was considering buying Apple with all the discussion here about its merits and I found that many of my funds already had a good chunk of Apple based on the reports which are always historical and might not have represented the current holdings.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
As for Amazon, they have already started charging tax in CA. It does not have as much appeal as the prices rarely are better than Costco. Their stock never appealed to me either. I got stung in the Dot.com bubble and don't want to repeat with volatile tech stocks.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
The market share argument from IDC is ludicrous in my opinion. As you stated Len, did they expect Apple to maintain 100% market share? Maybe it's not the IDC research that's stupid (I'm sure it's accurate) but it's the interpretation of the data by analysts that's stupid. They just want to spin it in a very negative way since this is the popular thing to do the past several months.
It looks like Tony will be happier in a few days. It appears that Apple will boost the dividend to about 4.5%. The announcement could come as early as tomorrow.
How do figure they are far bigger. They have roughly the same revenue, much less profit and about 20% of Apple's cash, maybe even less than that.
In all seriousness a person just can not loose any meaningful sum of money in the investment world....Math is just not forgiving....Tony ps I do like the products, and the way the management handles that part of the business....I am leery about buying music, as I want to be able to use the music on any device I want to....There is an informative article in `market watch` on this ...
In my own little world of investing logic, I never buy into the market when the euphoria is high. I am not sure if the overall market fits that yet. However, in the world of AAPL my thinking is that there isn't enough negativity. for it to be a likely sure buy. If I had bought AAPL back when I quit using AAPL computers and left the club supporting same, I might feel different. But I looked seriously into buying a position in AAPL as the price was moving with momentum last year. I then recalled the times I had been stung and stung myself. I let the Apple in various stock funds be the proxy for my buying into AAPL. I rode INTC up several times during the many years and then got stuck with the last block I bought. At least it now pays a nice dividend but it's about 10% below my purchase price.
Now, I'm wondering what those funds and institutions are doing to clean up their portfolios they report at the end of the 1st quarter. Are they buying or selling to clean up to beautify their holdings for the public reports?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
I remember reading an article detailing the unique laser equipment that Apple developed for making holes in cases.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/business/economy/in-us-surprise-housing-demand- -catches-industry-off-guard.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
Not a bad thing to see, but too many unknowns could be behind it.
I think you are exactly right. Fannie Mae is sitting on 1000s of abandoned homes. My source in the Foreclosure business says they are still two years behind processing the homes in CA owned by Freddie Mac. Holding those homes off the market is a form of Federal manipulation.
What is interesting the area I am focusing on has a very few homes for sale. And a large number in Pre-Foreclosure. The bank owned home we just bought in January went into foreclosure in 2011. Notice of sale in June 2011. And the bank did not take possession until April 2012. Being a total fixer it sat for 8 months on the market.
I will say the fixers around here are going for way more than I would pay. I would think if the market continues up I may someday get out what I put into my home. :sick:
I may look for land on Pawley's. I'm pretty certain we'll build there or a little further south in your neck of the woods and eventually sell up here and also take a condo in either Manhattan or more likely Hoboken. We're very close with our neighbors across the street and that's what they've done and they'll sell their house in the next year or two. When I come down to SC it'll be for a wedding and I'll either take the GL or fly. My wife absolutely loves the S550 and it's hard for me to even get driving time.
We may sell our business as there's a number of interested parties. If I get my number I'm buying or leasing a CL, CLS, SL or I might wait for the new S class coupe that replaces the CL next year. I'll downgrade from the GL to the ML when the GL lease is up. I love the GL - it's the best SUV on the road - and would take a new one at lease end in a heartbeat but it's too big for my wife to drive. She wants the ML next go round. The new S should be fabulous but I love the current car styling. On paper that I've seen so far it looks too much like a bigger E-class to me but it still looks stunning.
I know a guy my age who just sold a fixer 1960s ranch for 470K. I was amazed it brought so much, as it needs work - but it zillow'd at 700K at the peak of the mirage economy. His parents virtually gave it to him, but he took out loans against it - finally paid them down enough to escape.
Condos here are still kind of soft, some have almost tempted me. But the disconnect between true ownership/carrying costs vs rent is still too great, for a ball and chain that has a lot less appreciation potential and more chance for drama than a detached property.
I have no doubt the market is better than it has been in several years. I don't know what's really behind it though, or if it can hold. To be a little glib, we need more jobs.
That is what I am seeing in CA, horrible unemployment and people bailing out and going on welfare. This economy is unsustainable.
Your plan sounds like alot of fun, and excellent choices....I`v just always visualized you on Pawley`s, but of course Kiawah has been a big success, and at one point in time I had a couple of houses out there----back in the beginning---and not at the same time
Pawley`s is just an `old` established island that has a history, and frankly culture...Kiawah is pretty much this first generation and has a following of executives, and their idea of what life should be like....It takes different cultures and poor as well as rich and artistic people to make up an exciting setting....
later Tony
I have a friend who just sold her house at over asking price in just one day. She priced it fairly at market value and got 3 offers over asking at the open house. One was an all cash offer but they wanted to close in 20 days (they brought financial statements) and the other waived the home inspection. She went with the latter as she couldn't move in 20 days.
It's a rarity to hear that now but I guess it can happen with the right circumstances. Here in New England there aren't a glut of foreclosures as we didn't have the same type of building boom as found in other parts of the country. Yes there were foreclosures but we don't have huge subdivisions being built.
Also how many people lost homes in Sandy that are looking to replace? The building boom in the SW USA was crazy from 2001-2007. Whole new subdivisions were leveled when the banks did not want to pay taxes on empty unsold homes. Lennar had a heck of a time unloading the homes in a large subdivision that bordered 5 acres we owned. Looks like Lennar is making a comeback now though. It seems they reported a $135 million loss one year. LEN would have been a good buy when it dipped under $4.
Lennar Jumps to Highest Since 2007 on Earnings Beat
By John Gittelsohn - Mar 20, 2013 1:32 PM PT
Lennar Corp. (LEN), the third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, rose to the highest in almost six years after reporting a better-than-estimated profit and a 34 percent jump in orders in the fiscal first quarter.
Net income climbed to $57.5 million, or 26 cents a share, in the three months through February, from $15 million, or 8 cents, a year earlier, the Miami-based company said today in a statement. Analysts expected earnings of 15 cents a share, the median of 15 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Total revenue rose 37 percent in the quarter from a year earlier to $989.9 million. Lennar delivered 3,186 homes with an average price of $269,000, compared with 2,482 homes for an average of $246,000 in the first quarter of 2012. Orders jumped to 4,055 homes from 3,022 a year earlier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/lennar-earnings-beat-estimates-as-housi- - ng-recovery-continues.html
Most of the damage from Sandy was in NY and NJ - I'm in Boston where Sandy damage was very limited in comparison to NY and NJ. Hence there aren't many folks here looking for new homes from Sandy.
In any case, those folks are probably rebuilding right where they were as opposed to moving on. Folks that choose to live near the shore typically won't give up living on the shore.
We did have some damage from the last couple of recent winter storms but in terms of lost houses, it's probably under 20.
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http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Toluca-Lake-Los-Angeles-CA/pmf,pf_pt/27431_- rid/days_sort/34.167535,-118.342795,34.139941,-118.37348_rect/14_zm/
This place is pretty spectacular if you are in that league and like desert living.
http://www.zillowblog.com/2013-03-06/house-of-the-week-bob-hopes-iconic-lautner-- home-for-sale/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=emm-0313_MarchBuzz- AtomicHomes-hope
"“Nobody is stealing more money from bank depositors than Ben Bernanke,” Rickards tells The Daily Ticker. Bernanke's doing that, Rickards says, by maintaining interest rates near zero.
"“At this stage of a recovery normalized interest rates should be around 2-3%,” says Rickards. “Apply that 2-3% to the entire multi-trillion-dollar deposit base of the United States of America and that’s a $400-billion per year wealth transfer from savers to bankers so they can pay themselves bigger bonuses or make crazy bets.” Over time, Rickards says, that wealth transfer could reach $1 trillion.
"Rickards says zero interest rates are just one way the Fed is fleecing depositors. Others include increasing inflation, which Bernanke is trying to do, and taxing deposits like Cyprus is pushing for. “Bernanke is stealing more money from depositors than Cyprus is... looting everyday Americans—teachers, firemen and retirees,” says Rickards.
"There’s another way, of course, to view Fed policy: that near-zero interest rates and $85 billion worth of asset purchases every month are helping to boost economic growth and employment and maintain low interest rates for both short-term and long-term debt. Bernanke himself, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee late last month, said, “The benefits of asset purchases, and of policy accommodation more generally, are clear monetary policy is providing important support to the recovery.”
"But Rickards says the easy money policy is creating asset bubbles that may feel good for now but will eventually crash. "
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
That is my opinion of the new easy money. I just say "Please Lord give me one more Bubble so I can get my money back out of this House and leave California behind". I would be happy with a small farm in a state that respects our Constitutional rights and does not tax the crap out of the individuals. If the winters are cold I will close the place up and go rent a condo in the Keys for the winter.
Not to mention the subprime auto loans GM and probably others are putting out. Another bubble that will bite US in the behind.
I have taken advantage of the housing comeback, as it may not turn out to be a boom....Sometimes the best time to sell is when it appears to be heading towards a `boom`.....your guess
An interesting artificially low interest rate market can be seen in Canada, which in most metro areas right now is in a huge real estate bubble. Canada now has home ownership rates equivalent to the US at the peak of the market, and IIRC even more household debt. It won't end well.
Moving would be the biggest problem. I finally after 35 years have all my stuff in one place. Buying and selling houses, farms and land does not bother me. It gets my adrenalin going. The paper work has gotten to be the worst part over the years.
The other factor is that the low interest rate and the Bernanke buying 85$ billion per month keeps treasury rates low: that masks how much of our tax money is going to pay for the interest on the debt. With a small rise in rates from 0.0001% that debt maintenance is not going to leave much to give away to social security, medicaid, and medicare.
This will affect the stock market as the economy again crashes. So the effort to keep rates really low will continue as a cover-up. The humorous part is that many of the older and near older don't seem to realize that the low rates on cash equivalents they have is actually another tax.
The 85$ billion per month increasing the total dollars in circulation is devaluing everyone's dollar value. The middle class gets hurt by both the faux interest rates and the decreasing dollar value. The middle class gets to pay for the 47% who aren't working to the point of paying income taxes themselves. The middle class is paying for what the high income earners and inheritors aren't paying under the current tax system. The middle class is paying for the refusal to cut spending but instead to just keep giving away Christmas presents from the government.
How far up can the S&P go before becoming completely divorced from the real economy?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
There have been more positive reports about new products and potential higher sales from products. The Samsung new phone announcement didn't go much of anywhere spectacular, but Android phones have strongly increased their sales relative to iPhones.
But the moving averages don't look good yet for aapl. What technical indicators make aapl a good shot beyond the possible dividend increase?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
One of these days in the not too distant future everyone will have a Smartphone and only the very affluent will be dumping their 6 month old phone for a new one. Of course you and I and most of the posters here get to pay for the 47% to carry a smartphone. What a country.... :shades:
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Our state senator's newsletter indicated he's in favor of a program (tax money to banks) to let people write down the amount of money owed on their mortgage because the government caused housing bubble bursting lowered the value of their home below the amount owed. That, of course, would be a government program once again subsidized by taxpayers like myself and probably all of us.
I chose my mortgage and home carefully keeping it what we could afford. Why should I now have to help those who were leveraging themselves and taking a risk on job security, longevity, and can't now have a house worth more than their mortgage? I already pay for welfare of all kinds, earned income tax credits full of fraud, ObamaPhones, and now bailing banks to help owners escape their mortgage responsibilities?
I see a collapse in the future again, because this is even beyond the exposure of social security, medicare, medicaid, et al, as programs for everyone with no spending controls in sight.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
There really isn't a smartphone bubble. The market works just as it always has for the past 15 years with the difference being that people used to get $400 phones for $100 and today it's $700 phones for $200. 15 years ago you might have blanched if you had to pay $400 for a replacement phone - $700 is the new $400.
Further, Plans often are cheaper today than 15 years ago. I used to pay $100 a month for 2 phones and barely used them. Today I pay $160 a month for 4 phones and they're an indispensable part of my daily life.
Good point. Do you even have a landline, or do you rely on your Smartphones?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Truth is this will be the second time we have bailed out the banks. TARP should have addressed those upside down mortgages. Instead a lot of it ended up as banker's bonuses.