The Stock Market and Investing

robr2

Personally, I'm not changing a thing.

Russia has sent ships there as it has a base in Syria. The stated reason they have done so is in case it needs to evacuate Russian citizens. IMHO, they are there to give al-Assad early warning. IMHO Putin isn't crazy enough to block US action. An article I read indicate that they are there to protect their military (the base is their last naval base in the Mediterranean) and financial (arms, energy, tourism). Russia has lost many customers due to UN sanctions against Libya and Iran. Further, Russia isn't too crazy about the potential for another Muslim conflict. An increase in Muslim radicalism is a greater threat to Russia than it is to the United States as the Muslim world is closer to Moscow than it is to Washington.

As for China, they say they are just observing. It's much harder to say why China is opposed to the UN resolution. It has no military or trade reasons. Maybe they are concerned that Iran would be next and that opens the door for the UN to sanction them.

cyclone4

I'm still of the mindset that there is some additional correction that needs to take place in the stock market. I want to buy back SPY that I sold above 168, but I'm trying to be patient since I believe there will be a sell-off again in the near future.

I love the news that came out shortly after the close or perhaps just about on the close that Apple will be selling the lower cost iPhone to China Mobil. This is huge news.

ljflx

I will be out of the market for October - no question. I'm talking mutuals here, which is the high majority of my holdings. My individual stocks will be on a case by case basis. I only have a handful to consider.

Saw that Amazon may offer a free smartphone supported by ad commerce. So I guess you'll have to navigate thru ads to get to even more mobile ads? As long as Wall street gives Bezos a free pass on worsening earnings and extremely low and deteorating margins, Amazon can give away everything they sell.

gagrice

The Labor Department’s snapshot of the job market in August had several discouraging details underneath a relatively mundane headline number, which showed the economy added an estimated 169,000 jobs. Perhaps the most striking was a plunge in the share of Americans who are either working or looking for work, which fell to its lowest level since 1978.

“If you had a more optimistic view of the economy, which I think the Fed does, this should give you some pause,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR. “It’s been a real struggle here in the labor

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/07/business/economy/us-economy-adds-169000-jobs-a- s-unemployment-rate-falls.html?hp&_r=0

imidazol97

>looking for work, which fell to its lowest level since 1978.

More people are leaving the workforce by giving up on finding a job than GOT jobs (part time incuded) in the last months. Not sure of the fact, but the statement may have been made this is true for the last 40 months.

Also the statement was out there that if the unemployment were based on the number of folks working in 2009, the unemployment rate would be 10.3% IIRC. So many have given up on looking and the labor participation rate is so low, the figures are distorted.

Still waitiing for the recovery that started 3 years ago :grin

Many go on SSI to avoid having to look for work--a friend of ours did. Those attorneys advertising to get you the SSI you deserve aren't kidding that they know how to twist the loops.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

gagrice

Around San Diego I am seeing the U6 to the Shadow stats for employment. Of my immediate circle of friends only 1 out of 6 job seekers have found a job that was close to the one they lost. Two went from $100k high tech jobs to $15 per hour low tech jobs. My PHD Programmer friend is stuffing candy in boxes at $10 per hour. 3 others are living at home waiting for their college degrees to get them a McJob. Getting on disability is the racket if you can pull it off. Once you get into the welfare system you are in for life. Around here the only really good jobs are working for the government. Interesting my friend at the Post Office did not lose any pay in the sequester. She just works behind the closed doors. They open the PO now at 10 AM and close for lunch from 12:30 to 1 PM and open again till 5 PM. No hours were cut just services. Part of the plan to extort more from the middle classes. Yet the restaurants are all packed and you can't find a parking place at the beach to save your soul. Being poor today ain't what it was when I was a kid and dirt poor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP_izYhdehY

ljflx

From a stock market POV this is not bad news at all. It means the fed should have to keep the easing policies in place for a lot longer further propping up the economy until it finally gets some real legs. This is also great for real estate. The big fear in the market is that the fed will pull the plug too early. This should prolong the bull run in the stock market. Slow and gradual is the best for stocks. Combine anticipation of more prolonged future growth with the strongest Balance Sheets we've ever seen in public companies, including many trillions in cash, and you have a real nice looking stock market profile.

gagrice

No doubt the pumping of cash has helped the Stockmarket. And the companies with great balance sheets are helping as well. Is it improving the plight of the Middle class? Or do we want more of an elite and welfare society? The real estate resurgence seems to be a result of people with buckets of cash looking for better places than the bank to stash it. Many wealthy foreign investors. I think perspective on this economy is more based on a person's circle of friends. I stop by the two local food banks to visit friends in those churches that volunteer to hand out the food. Even though this is a rather affluent rural community, there are a lot of hurting people lost in the shuffle. Most with no hope of finding a job that can support them. I don't see any improvement for them on the horizon. Most of the companies doing well like Apple are not providing many jobs for Americans. Companies like GM we bailed out are moving more jobs South to Mexico rather than expand much here. The top selling GM vehicles are the Sierra and Silverado PU trucks. When GM was on the verge of BK in 2007 they were 90% US content. The 2014 models are only 40% US content. Mostly made in Mexico. Good for Mexico bad for the USA.

anthonyp

Hope for a `big day` tomorrow.....Maybe the war threats will simmer down and aapl will have some good news.....but I am with Charlie, I hope the correction continues on so I can continue to build a position ,,,,Tony

carnaught

Yet another disappointment from Apple. Time will tell.

Now, the stock in slow free-fall :sick: .

gagrice

I could have told you. Gold falls the next day AAPL follows. Not sure why.

cyclone4

THE reason the stock has plummeted is due to the unsubsidized pricing of the new iPhone 5C. The great majority of analysts expected the price to be between $300 and $400. However, it has been announced more than an hour ago that it will be priced at $549. AAPL immediately tanked from about $2 lower to more than $16 lower. Apple is not stupid. Perhaps they care more about profit margins than they do about competing with the much cheaper Androids.

There is a huge event in China that starts at 9:00 PM Central Time (10:00 AM China time September 11) this evening. It's possible that Apple will have a different price in China but I doubt it. The big news is that there will be a very important announcement that Apple has struck a deal with China Mobil. And, who is to say? Even at $549, the Chinese will buy the new iPhone in droves. It will be a big status symbol for them and some other emerging markets.

EDIT: Here is the first explanation I have seen on the reasoning for the pricing:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-guess-why-apple-decided-200914747.html

gagrice

AAPL selling at $467 pre opening.

houdini1

Yeah, their big news yesterday was that the iphone now comes in a lot of new colors !

anthonyp

A salty wound......I thought Ichan could give some decent advice on how to stabilize the price....Guess not....I personally think that aapl should introduce a larger screened phone......As for me and the stock , that is the final nail in the coffin....Tony

robr2

I thought Ichan could give some decent advice on how to stabilize the price....Guess not

He's not in it to stabilize the price. He's there to pull out $$$$.

This price drop will only feed his fire.

On a positive note, FB up 3%+ to an all time high. I can't complain - 120% return in 12 months.

cyclone4

"As for me and the stock , that is the final nail in the coffin."

Tony, this is a terrible day for Apple investors, but try not to give up. There will be much better days ahead for Apple in the near future.

Here are a couple of good articles on the subject:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1688242-great-expectations-the-apple-story?sourc- e=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/review-slick-ios-7-shines-041310012.html

anthonyp

I`m sorry Charlie, but it is too frustrating to me to hold aapl any longer....I got out just above five hundred, and lost about three thousand dollars.....The kid got back in and made some money--like a thousand--without my help :-) With my help he lost a thousand, and I made it good for him.....You may not remember but he wanted to buy fb just a tad above twenty, then eventually he did get some and now feels he s the king of the world------all at my bruised feelings so you can see I am just moving on....

I really like the products, and will continue to support them in that way, but the stock---not---God I am glad I didn`t build a meaningful position.....I wish all holders of the stock, the best of luck, and will continue to `ponder` the stock, and the differences between amazon vs aapl....although I am afraid the computer trading etc will continue to baffle me.....so in other words ` I just can`t understand it`Tony`

carnaught

Sounds like I'm in it to about the same degree as you were. Thinking more like Cyclone, I'm holding, to hopefully break even (unless some unexpected momentum develops), then I'm out. Fortunately, although I was tempted on multiple occasions to buy more, I never did. It only represented a fraction of a percent of my portfolio which is now mainly liquid. It's safer to put money under your mattress, and less aggravating.

ljflx

I was surprised about the downturn in Apple's share price. Maybe people just expect too much or maybe a lack of a China Mobile deal fueled it. But I also saw that Icahn bought another large position on it - taking advantage of hedge fund nervous nellies. I can't sell if Icahn is buying. His buys usually turn out very positive. I'm also not sure I get the whole market share issue at least not to the level it is cited. Apple refuses to go too far down market in China. It gets chastised for resistance in competing with $100-200 android smart phones and these are probably the same people that would chastise it on margins if it did compete at the low end. Apple is dammed if they do and dammed if they don't. But let's be realistic about this instead of playing the hedge fund game of paying off CNBC for air time for their stooges. The buyers of those cheap phones can barely afford them. Why would anyone want to build an eco system for a group of people that is already seriously reaching to buy a $100 smart phone (whole list price with no subsidy). Good luck to apps developers who want to go after that niche and make money year after year. I read a lot into the secure finger printing that Apple is coming out with. It's a major step to secure banking apps and a smart phone debit and credit card system. Such a system will be embraced fastest by the higher end consumer. So I'd watch Apple closely for a break through in that niche and then in the TV space plus I'd expet a big contract with China mobile pretty soon. IMO Apple is setting up to milk its products lines for big holiday profits and then to sustain those profits with new products. Of course if it comes out with larger screens, as almost all analysts want, they will say it's nothing new. Like I said earlier it's dammed if you do, dammed if you don't.

First smart business story I read in the last three days. Nice to read a guy who values profits and understands pricing strategy rather than read a bunch of analysts who don't.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1691552-why-apples-5c-phone-pricing-makes-perfec- - t-sense?source=yahoo

Watch out for October. We are well positioned for a correction. I'm day by day with pulling money out. I went down from the high 90's to 80% in equity today. I'll be 25-75 by month end.

cyclone4

That's a great article and he makes too much for those bozos that frequently show up on CNBC.

Honestly, after being "brain washed" by the constant talk prior to the announcement Tuesday that the 5C was going to be priced between $300-400, I am now happy that Apple priced it at $549. It will pay off in both the short and long run. I feel confident that AAPL will do just fine by the end of the year and into 2014 with new and exciting products.

gagrice

Just got an offer in my email for a Verizon iPhone 5C in color of my choice for $99 with 2 year contract. Anyone interested go to Verizon wireless.

cyclone4

I agree with what this lady says on this interview.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101031368?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%- 7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101031368%7CExpect+a+new+%27wow%27+produc

robr2

Just got an offer in my email for a Verizon iPhone 5C in color of my choice for $99 with 2 year contract.

That's the standard subsidized price for the 5C and 2 year contract. I'll stick with AT&T for the same price and my grandfathered unlimited data plan.

kyfdx

Today is the first day you can pre-order the new iPhone for delivery next Friday...

gagrice

I'll stick with AT&T for the same price and my grandfathered unlimited data plan.

Any grandfathered plan is worth hanging onto. I still have my Sprint Pioneer plan for life. No monthly. Only charged for outgoing minutes. Average about $10 a year. If I ever get a smartphone and plan I am torn between Verizon and AT&T. They both have their weak areas. My son's Verizon phone does not work at all at the house he is remodeling. Less than a mile and a half from middle of town. Guy working for him with AT&T has all the bars. Sprint does not work there either. Verizon told him sorry nothing they would do. So much for "Can you Hear me Now"?

houdini1

I have seen that offer before on the 5C and I think they are not telling the whole story because the two options they give you do not make sense.

1. $99. up front for the phone and a two year contract.

2. $00. up front and 24 monthly payments of $23.05 for the phone.

In option 1, it looks like you only pay $99. but in option 2, you would pay about $553.00 for the 5C.

In option 1 there has got to be a more expensive plan you have to buy or somewhere hidden in the fine print there is an add'l monthly charge for the phone. These wireless companies are pretty sneaky.

robr2

In option 1 there has got to be a more expensive plan you have to buy or somewhere hidden in the fine print there is an add'l monthly charge for the phone.

Nope the plans are exactly the same. The difference is that with Option 1 you are are locked into a contract for 2 years and get the phone for $99. With Option 2 you pay for the the full retail price of the phone in 24 payments but you can trade in your phone after paying 50% of the phone's price. That's where they get $23 a month for 2 years. Hence you could trade up every year but you pay $225 for the phone in that year.

houdini1

The plans may be the same, but you are still paying over 4 times as much ($50. per year vs $225. per year) for the phone each year just for the privilege or trading up one year early. That seems like a big penalty but I suppose some are willing to pay it. I certainly would not. Option 1 looks like a much better deal.

robr2

Right - I was showing you that. You said there must be some sort of hidden catch for Option 1 so I was pointing out there wasn't.

cyclone4

Here is another article that merits a lot of attention. It fully explains Apple's strategy with the pricing of the two new phones. The author is right on the money in my opinion.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1694852-is-apples-iphone-5c-5s-strategy-all-wron- g?source=yahoo

cyclone4

And here is an article focusing on Apple's strategy in China.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1696222-apples-big-opportunity-chinas-not-going-- anywhere?source=yahoo

anthonyp

As I now am just following along, I read an article that said that aapl`s price for the cheaper `c` would give the carrier a larger profit, and that in turn would motivate the representatives at the carrier to push aapl products......I don`t know if that is accurate or not, but thought it may be helpful...Tony

gagrice

cyclone4

Tony, et all,

Tim Cook finally spoke today about Apple's strategy, the competition, and Apple's stock. It's about time. It is helpful.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/connieguglielmo/2013/09/19/tim-cook-says-apple-isnt-- interested-in-junk-part-of-low-end-smartphone-market/?partner=yahootix

anthonyp

That was a good article....Calm and collected....They have a great product, one I use daily, and plan on continuing with :-) Do look forward to a larger screen ...Like Cook says,` you have to keep innovating`....

I`m in the throes of car shopping and am thinking of either the Mercedes S or a Porsche Panemara.. As this will be close to the last car I purchase, I want to get a good pleasurable one.....I like the Porsche, but the logic in me leans towards the Mercedes.....The Porsche takes me back to `youth`and what I want, but that isn`t necessarily the smartest time to do....Any thoughts? Tony

tlong

Choose heart over logic, and then enjoy the ride!

anthonyp

Thanks.....

cyclone4

Tony, I've been at airports all day. Otherwise, i would have responded sooner. I would go for the Mercedes S. if Apple ever gets back close to the highs of a year ago, I will seriously consider the S. And you must keep in mind that this is coming from a diehard Lexus fan.

houdini1

I am on my 3rd Lexus LS and have to admit that my eye is beginning to wander. Even though they have all been flawless, I am beginning to lean toward something a little smaller and more engaging, etc.

anthonyp

Like what? :-) Tony

houdini1

I was speaking only in generalities, etc. No particular model in mind. Not a sports car, etc. but something a little more sporty. I have always liked the Hyundai Genesis, and now the new Kia Cadenza looks interesting, but I have not driven either one. Even the new (2014) Honda Accord hybrid is interesting.

It would be hard to give up the Lexus dealer experience. Maybe what I need (want) is a 3rd car.

gagrice

An intriguing story of someone that did not let the ladder of success get in her way. For anyone that thinks you cannot start with nothing and make it in this country.

The former CFO of Amazon.com, Joy Covey, died in a bike accident in Silicon Valley yesterday.

Joy was riding downhill on State Highway 35 when a minivan turned across the road directly in front of her. Joy crashed into the side of the minivan and died at the scene.


http://www.businessinsider.com/joy-covey-2013-9

fintail

Maybe Lexus GS? It might be the nicest design in the Lexus stable right now.

Accord is a probable bargain though, and looks more upmarket than it costs, while not being as derivative or half-baked as some Koreans.

cdnpinhead

Sad, but interesting. Thanks for the link.

houdini1

Yes, that is certainly a possibility. I also like the CT hybrid, maybe as a 3rd car.

fintail

I suppose a CT would be a good runabout, especially if your area has dense traffic. I'd take one over a loaded Prius anyway - CT is still a little goofy like most hybrids, but not smug.

cyclone4

Apple haters are trying everything in their power to knock down the stock, but eventually Apple will prevail. The weekend iPhone sales were incredible and the demand is in the stratosphere. In what I believe is an unprecedented move, Tim Cook announced that the quarterly earnings report will be towards the high end of expectations due to the tremendous success of the new iPhones.

Here is a Forbes article from this morning:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerkay/2013/09/23/apple-proves-critics-wrong/?part- - ner=yahootix

anthonyp

Although I shouldn`t have downloaded the osx7 I did, and like it all except the `reader` disappeared ...You done this yet??, and if so, do you now how to get the `reader` ??? Tony

cyclone4

Tony, I have not downloaded the iOS7 or iOSX7 yet. I am going to wait until I get back home from MA next week.