The Stock Market and Investing

carnaught

Looked at the Hybrid Titanium with my son. Nice car but with the three of us on test drive with the a/c going, it had no "gitti-up". How's the pick-up with the Energi? Agree with you with leasing it and not getting the black interior.

Anyway, congrats.

cyclone4

"Geeze relax."

Rob, I was not at all trying to get on your case. I was just trying to point out that there is more to the story about why Apple has been rallying lately.

anthonyp

You are right , although I haven`t even floored it, I can tell it is just what it is, `a different experience` I think (and hope) that when they get the battery smaller, and more endurance in it, they can then increase the engine h.p and have a nice ------compromise----like the politicians :-).....Also the trunk is small due to the battery, but enough for me.....Another thing that is displeasurable is they want four hundred dollars for an additional plug cord.....Not from me will they get it.

The good points overwhelm the bad ones though....Quiet, efficient, very good ride, and comfortable ...Tony

imidazol97

>I wish I had just purchased it.....It is a Ford Fusion Energi

I'm enjoying reading your experiences with the Fusion. That's a car I am interested in. Thanks for sharing.

imidazol97

anthonyp

Nothing much more to tell now, but I can confirm the twenty + miles of elec (battery) power really makes a huge difference...Usually use no gas, and when I drive to the farm, use the battery while in town and after getting on the scenic road, shift to gas for the strait aways ...It is fun , and a new experience....The quick acceleration is not missed, nor is it a problem not having it....If something un-usual comes up I`l keep you posted...Tony mpg(e) is in the upper fifties

ljflx

Interesting to watch Cramer and his comments about deferred revenue/subscriptions on this video. My take on stock market analysts is they are pure mathematical modellers with little understanding of balance sheets, cash flow and accounting rules. They are easily duped by people who run businesses for stats that would appease Wall street rather than shoot for profitability. Bezos at Amazon fits this to a tee. He just wants to report revenue growth and he'll do whatever he can to make that top line impressive. He doesn't want profitability at this point. That becomes a big problem on Wall street. Profitability begets a PE multiple that would make no sense. He would also have to increase it many fold depending on what he reports as profitability when he eventually does or if the company can ever attain it.. But assuming its a decent amount he'd have to triple or quadruple it in a very short period. That's why I expect Bezos to continue to report revenue growth that makes the street happy while at the same time reporting small nickel or dime a share losses for as long as the street gives him a free ride on losses. Meanwhile Amazon oozes cash and gives BS reasons, such as their warehouse building as excuses for lack of earnings. An accountant knows that warehouses are built, hence capitalized, the equipment and furniture that goes in them gets capitalized and the goods that goes in them gets inventoried. So none of this is a P&L expense. In the case of Amazon they actually rent warehouses instead of building them since the rent saves them hoards of cash and equates to the same expense that would be in the P&L from depreciation. The warehouses are fulfillment centers so they are immediately integrated into Amazon's ops and are supposedly there to save them distribution costs. But they are instead used as reasoning to explain away Amazon's lack of profits.

Think back to Enron. Enron had a constantly weakening balance sheet and yet analysts just pointed to higher stock prices based on P&L growth stats. It took a high level accounting manager at Enron to point out to the world that the company would not be able to make payroll in the next month, was on the verge of bankruptcy and would soon have no cash to pay its bills, and by soon she meant a week or so. Why did that happen? Because Enron had a CFO that tricked everyone and falsely showed profits that did not exist. All one had to look at was the Balance Sheet and the lack of cash generation to see that the earnings were either bogus or of the lowest quality imaginable. Wall street analysts missed this because they only model P&L stats with no cross check on quality. Yet these analysts drive stock prices. It almost reminds me of looking at a car and valuing it on its beauty and having no understanding of what's under the hood. The balance sheet is what's under the hood.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000212037&__source=yahoo%7cheadline%7cquot- - - e%7cvideo%7c&par=yahoo

carnaught

Kramer was touting aapl (whoopie-doo) about an hour ago. It is now 10 points off its high. The rest of today should be interesting.....

imidazol97

>ljflx

Nicely explained. Even I could understand what's happening there.

houdini1

Yes, excellent post. You have some keen insights. Thanks.

tlong

Interesting to watch Cramer and his comments about deferred revenue/subscriptions on this video. My take on stock market analysts is they are pure mathematical modellers with little understanding of balance sheets, cash flow and accounting rules.

I think you are being quite charitable to put Cramer in that camp. He's a good showman with a little bit of snake oil in his panties.

Because Enron had a CFO that tricked everyone and falsely showed profits that did not exist. All one had to look at was the Balance Sheet and the lack of cash generation to see that the earnings were either bogus or of the lowest quality imaginable.

Given that Enron begat Sarbanes Oxley, a very burdensome set of regulations to help increase financial transparency, I've never heard anybody tell me why with SOX in place, we still managed to have much of our financial sector melt down from bogus derivatives, bad loans, and other financial creativity. Seems that SOX is a regulation that didn't accomplish anything.

ljflx

Cramer's a businessman. He started Street.com. My point wasn't really about Cramer anyway. It was about Wall street analysts. I used the video link as a point about deferred revenue, a Balance Sheet item and how Wall Street misses things like that. The only connection point they had this go round was that Apple explained it in their jargon as a gross margin reduction (a paper adjustment) rather than as growth in a liability account, albeit a non-cash liability. Unless you owe clients back money for something deferred revenue is purely a non-cash liability. It's not like payables. Companies play games with deferred revenue from quarter to quarter. It's a great hiding place. Apple gave the free software as a reason for it this quarter. Could be true, could be a big stretch of the truth. The latter may be the case because they were easily ahead of earnings estimates without it so they may have decided to put the profits in the Balance Sheet instead of the P&L. After accounting for dividends and stock re-purchase their cash again grew at a higher rate than earnings, making the usual testament that their earnings are high quality. So the increase in deferred revenue now makes a lot of sense to me.

tlong

Personally I see most of the WS prognosticators as excellent trailing indicators. Problem is that to be effective they should be leading indicators

Case in point. When Apple was around 700 it was a huge buy rating all over the place. Once AAPL plunged into the low 400's they had more sell ratings. Now aren't we supposed to buy low and sell high? Once a stock crashes, the analysts say "sell". When a stock has gone way up, it's usually a "buy".

Most of those analysts are driving nice cars and working in marbled offices. All of that money comes from somewhere. It's often extracted from their clients. If they were so good you'd think they'd quit charging clients and just play the market on their own with their great talents.

It's probably better to be a contrarian. Or buy index funds.

ljflx

"It's probably better to be a contrarian. Or buy index funds. "

Index funds is where I do my heaviest investing and because it's with pre-tax or annuities I own i can make easy changes without worrying about taxable income. This year I've gone more in and out than in the past so I have gains in the 35-36% range. I think the market is peaking so I just put in orders to cut my investments to 50%. One of my indicators is small cap, a group I put a lot of money into. Once they really start to slow down my experience is the market will sell off somewhat. I don't anticipate more than a 4-5% correction but I've earned a very healthy growth rate this year so sitting on the sidelines for two months with some or all of those investments in money markets may not be a bad idea. The returns have been a bit too easy this year. With that said I also say don't fight the Fed and we have an even more accomodating incoming head replacing Bernanke. So next year may be very good too but no way does it replicate this years returns.

cyclone4

Len, I love your explanation about the phony Amazon balance sheet. Eventually, this stock will get hammered.

I watched this segment with Cramer live yesterday morning. It was interesting, but Cramer is occasionally "two faced". I remember him blasting Apple several times a few months ago. He seems to change his tune rather frequently.

I was also watching late yesterday afternoon on the show that Melissa Lee of CNBC hosts. She really ticks me off (gets on my nerve) because she does not know what she is talking about a lot of the time. She was interviewing a couple analysts I believe yesterday and in the course of the conversation she says that Tim Cook did not say anything about new product categories for 2014 and that he was being coy about it. I heard that and I was cursing her in no uncertain terms. I listened live to the entire conference call on Monday and I know for a fact that Tim Cook specifically stated "new product categories" in addition to new products for 2014. Of course the analysts did not correct her or that she did not allow them to correct her since they were out of time. Did I ever tell you that I cannot stand her?

The one huge moment I am waiting for with Apple is the China Mobil announcement. It will come. It's just a matter of will it come in November or will come next year. When this announcement is made, I bet the stock jumps 10% in a matter of hours or days.

anthonyp

Good news for you today :-) Tony

cyclone4

Tony,

What's the good news?

circlew

I think Tony refers to the SAC deal.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/sac-capital-advisors-reaches-deal-feds-artic- - le-1.1506000

SAC Capital Advisors reaches $1.8 billion deal with feds over insider trading charges
Steven Cohen’s company has agreed to pay, plead guilty to all criminal charges and close its investment advisory business in a deal reached with Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara.

kyfdx

That wasn't SAC that he had the issues with.... It was Jon Corzine's company, MF Global (I think)

gagrice

It was Jon Corzine's company, MF Global

That slime ball Corzine epitomizes the Cronyism rampant in our government.
He is probably basking in the sun on the South coast of Europe in the Villa he bought with Cyclone's cash. Have they dug up his many estates looking for the buried Billion in cash? His buddy Holder let him slide. Sick, he should have to share a cell with Madoff.

Without directly linking Mr. Corzine to the disappearance of more than $1 billion in customer money, the trading commission will probably blame the chief executive for failing to prevent the breach at a lower rung of the firm, the law enforcement officials said. If found liable, he could face millions of dollars in fines and possibly a ban from trading commodities, jeopardizing his future on Wall Street.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/24/u-s-civil-charges-against-corzine-are-see- n-as-near/

ljflx

This is the first time I bought an IPO on day one. I just got 750 shares of Twitter at 45.15. Let's see where it goes.

ljflx

The city is in great financial shape, crime is very low and the incoming mayor is about ready to reverse all that. This place is about to nosedive. If it were a stock I'd short it to the maximum. The new Mayor - Bill DeBlasio makes Obama's liberal views look like Bush's conservative ones. I'm not sure where Wall street will go but I'd expect plenty of jobs to leave NYC pretty soon. I also didn't realize that NYC elected a husband and wife as mayor. Thank God I never bought a condo there like I once wanted to.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/nyregion/de-blasio-takes-his-first-steps-to-re- - - shape-new-york.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

cyclone4

Yes indeed! It was Corzine and MF Global for me and my family. We are up to 98% whole and and from what I heard yesterday, we will be up to 100% by the end of the year. They should pay us at least 150% for all the pain they caused.

ljflx

Excellent story on Twitter here. I'm not intending to stay in this stock very long. I've allocated money to buy a few individual stocks which I may only stay in for days. Twitter is the first of these. My feeling on the market on thw whole is that where it is now is likely where it'll be at december 31st. So going in and out with mutuals and annuities is the way I'm playing. This week I'm 50% out, next week I may go 100% back in. I'm expecting a fall back than a late rally than a selloff at year end as fund managers lock in gains for the quarter and year.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2013/11/07/heck-no-i-wont-invest-in-twitter-af- ter-this-ipo-debacle/

cyclone4

Len, it sounds like a good strategy to me. It seems like the market as a whole is in for some sort a correction the way it acts today. But I agree that it will be in a kind of a trading range of +4% to -4% from here.

As for TWTR, I think you will make some money but probably not very much. Cooler heads will prevail and the stock will eventually sell off to perhaps less than $40 after reaching above $50 possibly in the next few days. I did not buy any shares.

ljflx

Charlie,

This is a gamble, not an investment. I'm simply buying on today's momentum. I wanted to put a stop on the stock but you can't do that today. So I'll just watch it in this last hour. I may be out of it by 4PM.

cyclone4

I have a feeling you may be doing the right thing to get out by the close today.

houdini1

One on the cited advantages of obamacare is that an employer can no longer hold someone hostage because they are afraid they will lose their health insurance, because they can always buy one of the gov. plans....but if the gov. plan costs over $20,000., it would seem that that person is still held hostage....

tlong

One on the cited advantages of obamacare is that an employer can no longer hold someone hostage because they are afraid they will lose their health insurance, because they can always buy one of the gov. plans....but if the gov. plan costs over $20,000., it would seem that that person is still held hostage....

Well I doubt it was any cheaper with private insurance. My private (family of 4) costs were over $20K, but my CA state cost would be about $15K. The difference is that I can't be excluded for pre-existing conditions, which was not the case previously.

Healthcare was and is expensive either way. So the chaining to the employer could be just as much due to inability to pay for ANY healthcare as anything else.

imidazol97

How do the deductibles and copays compare?

Most real reports are of people paying more for much higher deductibles and higher copays. If yours is not, you're lucky.

I see the higher costs for deductibles and copays for many having to lose their private insurance to be replaced with ObamaCare being a factor in spending as we near year end as many people realize their disposable income has shrunk.

tlong

They are less generous with the state plans, but OTOH, there was NO other option than the >$20K plan on the private market.

gagrice

I got a letter from Kaiser. Most of my co-pays are going up due to Obamacare. I really don't think Obama lied. I think he was clueless as to the content of what he was signing. He is a puppet of Axelrod's and says what he is told to say.

gagrice

Last but not least Apple Care.

ljflx

Charlie - I got out late in the day at 47.75. I bought back 300 shares on Friday at 41.75. I'm just gambling here. This is not investing. the stock is incredibly over-valued.

For anyone playing the Wall street game on momentum stocks this is must reading. There are a number of companies that play this game of serving up info that is rosy while deadpanning the real GAAP costs. The SEC made a major mistake with this non-GAAP reporting nonsense. Note the CEO that went to jail over rosy reporting on his company that today trades at $17 or so but with the rosy reporting during the internet bubble the stock traded in the high $400's. Wall street should know better but even today they are driving up the price of non-profit companies by using false metrics. Either they are dumd to the real costs, ignore them for whatever reason or they use the company BS to drive the prices up so that they can start selling and shorting them near absurd peak prices that the retail investor comes in on. Amazon plays this game because the longer they can report small losses or barely profitable numbers they stay on the momentum side. They have convinced Wall street to look away from costs and only look at revenue growth and Wall street analysts, who seem to know nothing about accounting, follow that script as if they were employees orderred to do so.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/business/earnings-but-without-the-bad-stuff.ht- ml?ref=business&_r=0

cyclone4

I figured that you had gotten out of TWTR with some profit the day of the IPO. Since TWTR is operating with losses, what do you think the fair value is right now? My guess is that it should be trading down to near $20 or so.

That is indeed a great article you linked. And yet, AMZN rolls on. Incredible!

cyclone4

I found this article rather interesting. I knew that Apple Mapping is vastly improved from the year ago launch but I did not realize it has made such a huge impact against Google Maps in just one year. The article below provides the reasoning behind Apple's huge comeback with iMaps. I know from first hand experience that Apple Maps is now wonderful.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/When-It-Comes-to-Map-Apps- /11/11/2013/id/52641?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo&refresh=1

ljflx

I can see it in the 30's but not the 20's. I wouldn't at all be surprised if it held at $40+ either. There was a huge block of shares bought at $45-$48. Those are people that will hold and keep shares available for sale in lower than normal supply IMO. With a stock like this you think of supply, demand and future revenue. So it's impossible to value a stock like this as it's all based on discounted revenue projections. You can't measure it by today's P&L or Balance Sheet. Facebook sold off because the IPO was too high and then people discounted it's revenue projections much more severely. Once they did that,erroneously as it turned out, the stock sold off to just below $20. BTW Trump said he bought it at $19 simply based on what he was seeing on CNBC.

ljflx

Charlie,

It is amazing how this map story has gotten so little press. It's also amazing that analysts keep wanting Apple to go low quality, low price for marketshare and that area of the market yields little if any profit and probably more often losses. Apple has a history of introducing one product at a time. But now in the last two months they've introduced multiple products in the same category. And guess what - the market wants the more expensive, higher profit product. It happened with the 5S over the 5C and now it's about to happen with the iPad mini retina display which will sell at $100 more than the iPad mini. Just more and more proof that Wall street analysts are clueless about what Apple customers really want.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/11/12/apples-stealth-launch-of-ipa- - - d-retina-may-hit-at-supply-issues-good-for-holiday-sales/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=ya- - - hoo

cyclone4

Len,

It is truly amazing that the folks at CNBC have not said a word about how the Apple Maps have greatly improved and have taken off and have been gaining on Google Maps in recent months. Why? It appears that the analysts that CNBC is paying to spew BS, don't want AAPL to rally and so there has been no mention of the iMaps in recent weeks.

I have heard today that the iPad Mini with retina display may not be all that constrained. Both the Air and the Mini are selling like hotcakes. I believe this will be a fantastic Holiday Season for Apple. I'm not sure if I had mentioned it here the past couple weeks, but my wife purchased the 64 gig with data option and Wi-Fi iPad Air at the Apple Store on the day it was launched (Nov. 1). She absolutely loves it.

gagrice

I may have to give the iPad Mini with retina and cellular a go. I love my Galaxy Note 8.0. However on this last cross country trip I missed having Google maps and Gas buddy on the road. The latest OEM NAVs are always 3 years behind. The VW RNS 850 NAV is a vast improvement over the Toyota NAV, but still not what I would trust. I would give iMap a chance. But would not toss out Google maps. I like the fact that I can buy Cellular data service for when I travel. Now to decide between Verizon and AT&T. Verizon is very poor in some areas we travel. AT&T poor in others.

OH, for perfection.

cyclone4

My son ordered the new Mini with retina display as soon as it was launched late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. He is heavily involved with music (does a lot of audio and video editing) and thus ordered the 128 gig model. The estimated time of arrival was by November 22. He has owned the Galaxy 3 and now a new high end LG phone with a little bigger screen than the Galaxy 3. He had been shying away from Apple since he does not like the "restrictions" but he says that Apple is starting to open things up little by little in recent months. He is extremely excited about the new Mini after researching the specs.

As for me, I could not care less about the so called Apple "restrictions".

ljflx

I am very tempted to buy the iPad air for the holidays. I am sorry I downloaded the new operating system to my 2nd gen IPad and I'm going to go into an Apple store to find out why it's worse than the op system I had. I cannot access certain web sites that l aways could. They are there but the data is displayed in a horrible format and I'm back to my PC for them now. Don't know if it's something more that I need or did'nt do with the new system. If not I want the old op system back. The iPad 2 was phenomenal but with the new system it's only good.

I read a story that the new op systems that Apple introduces make it tougher on the old gen products instead of better. That this may even be a strategy to lure you into an Apple store for a fix or make you want to buy a new device to take advantage of all the the things the new system can do. Could this be why Apple gave away the new software?? Given my experience it may be the case.

cyclone4

That's strange that the new OS does not work well with your iPad 2. I believe you can go back to the older OS if you wish. But I think your best choice is to get a new iPad Air. You will love it.

anthonyp

I unfortunately downloaded the new operating system on the phone, and am very discouraged as the print is so small..Can`t go back...It truly makes me wonder if I want to get any more imbedded with aapl, as it is getting harder and harder to think about trying something different.

Most of my frustration comes from not being able to get lte everywhere I go, and dealing with at&t on my bill.....aapl products probably are the best, but I sure hate to be taken advantage of ....Tony

circlew

Tony, did you turn on the large text setting in the settings menu?

ljflx

I shouldn't have to buy an iPad air and spend $500+ to rectify this. The iPad 2 that I had worked flawlessly with the old system. I just want that back.

anthonyp

I did, and also as one of the moderators said, I needed to do something with Adobie , and I opened an account.....Before the download, there was an blue box that said `reader` for anything you wanted to read...I miss that feature the most....I really just don`t understand why evertyhing would even come with such small print....I am afraid the job of doing these changes falls to the guy with `dyslexia`, as God always compensates those with some challenge , with a `gift`.....Tony ps thanks

anthonyp

Good News-----I found that the` reader` can now be activated by tapping the four lines on the left of the url, or the line on the top of the screen, the one that shows where you type an address---to be thorough---.....Man what a pain this has been, but now all is well...:-) Tony

cyclone4

Great to hear that this problem was solved for you. On another post above you mentioned that the LTE can be a pain since it does not work everywhere. This is where I need to tell you a horror story that involves yours truly and AT&T.

A few weeks ago I found out that I was missing calls and texts. There would be voice mails that would show up hours later than when they were sent. I bit more investigation determined that I was missing calls and texts ONLY when I was in my home and nearby. So, I went to the AT&T store to find out what in the hell was going on. My first visit resulted in a hard boot of my phone. The problem continue (I could easily test it by calling my iPhone from the home phone). I went back to the AT&T store and this time the manager downloaded an app on my phone called "Mark on the Spot". I came back home and checked out this app and sure enough, it indicated a problem in my area and that they are working hard to resolve it. Now the story gets worse.

I called AT&T customer care and I was on the phone for at least an hour explaining all the details of the problem. Finally the rep told me that I would hear from AT&T tech support within 72 hours. Well, sure enough, at just about 72 hours, a tech support guy called me and told me that the problem was with my phone and NOT with AT&T. Then I said what about the message I received from the app that sated there WAS a problem in my area. He then comes back with, well there is a 2G tower that is down a couple miles south of me but that does not affect me since I was on 4G LTE. He suggested that I go to the Apple store for them to do a "backup and restore" on my phone. So, I did so and hopefully that would fix it. When I came home not only did the phone still have the same problem but I also found out that ALL my photos and videos on my phone were gone. Then I really panicked. I went back to the Apple store and they said that unfortunately, the camera roll on my phone was turned "off" and therefore, the photos were not backed up on the cloud. 3 years of photos and videos were now gone. The only ones I could recover were those that I texted or emailed to friends and relatives since I could just look through the texts and save them again. So, all was not lost.

Now here is the kicker. I decided to turn the LTE option on my phone and guess what? the phone now worked flawlessly. I called the tech support people at AT&T and asked some new guy now what in the hell is going on. Listen to this: This tech guy said there is indeed a problem with 3 switches on LTE towers in my area and that's why I am not able to receive calls when I am close to home. Now, I was furious!. I said, then why in the world did that first tech guy give me the crap that it was my phone. He basically jumbled around with no good answer. The damage was done with my photos plus I wasted about 2 whole days trying to figure out what was going on. By the way, AT&T has still not fixed the LTE problem in my area. They have been switching the Des Moines area to LTE, but some parts of the city are not working right yet. IF only I was told to just turn off the LTE option my phone from the start, everything would have been great.

gagrice

That is a very sad tale for sure. I am not where I would trust a cloud or web server to store anything for me. I learned a hard lesson in the 1980s about backing up info I did not want lost. I now keep every picture, email, doc, Spreadsheet and database on 3 separate computers along with a stand alone hard drive that goes in the safe when we are away.

AT&T are not the only ones with issues. My son is on Verizon in Indiana. His phone does not work a mile and a half out of town on the property we bought there. My wife's AT&T phone has 5 bars in the same location. Half the time when he emails photos of the building project I don't get them. And he does not get any kind of response that they were not delivered. Leaves me wondering why I would own a smartphone? Sprint is even worse. If my Sprint phone service was not free I would cancel.