Am co-executor of my dad's smallish estate and need to go look at the whole file before I agree to the distributions that I have come up with. My twin questioned my honesty so have decided that I do need to read the whole file before I can "honestly" sign off on anything so there will be no distribution in 2013 as originally planned. Even the attorney who, is co-trustee, agreed that there is no rush to distribute the assets and that I should get familiar with what has taken place these last 20 something years! And I will!
_The Sandman _
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
Since Apple's shares performed so poorly last year, Cook lost the entire 50% that was at risk. Apple's stock fell 26% between August 2012 and August 2013 (Cook's stocks vest each August), but the S&P 500 rose 18% during that same period.
How The NSA Hacks Your iPhone (Presenting DROPOUT JEEP)
Following up on the latest stunning revelations released yesterday by German Spiegel which exposed the spy agency's 50 page catalog of "backdoor penetration techniques", today during a speech given by Jacob Applebaum (@ioerror) at the 30th Chaos Communication Congress, a new bombshell emerged: specifically the complete and detailed description of how the NSA bugs, remotely, your iPhone. The way the NSA accomplishes this is using software known as Dropout Jeep, which it describes as follows: "DROPOUT JEEP is a software implant for the Apple iPhone that utilizes modular mission applications to provide specific SIGINT functionality. This functionality includes the ability to remotely push/pull files from the device. SMS retrieval, contact list retrieval, voicemail, geolocation, hot mic, camera capture, cell tower location, etc. Command, control and data exfiltration can occur over SMS messaging or a GPRS data connection. All communications with the implant will be covert and encrypted."
The flowchart of how the NSA makes your iPhone its iPhone is presented below:
Are we witnessing the beginning of a big selloff??
Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.
Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.
In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.
With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.
Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.
Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.
So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?
What say ye all? Is this gloom and Doom or based in reality?
In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of “major reversals,” with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.
United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.
“Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles,” Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.
He doesn’t believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasn’t seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996.
There is always alot of uncertainty and forces that benefit from it....From my perspective it appears many of our past concerns have diminished, and although there may be a correction, I plan on using it to further purchase stocks.....Tony
I agree here with Tony and plan to start buying very soon. Also plan on getting into tax free muni's next month to diversify the portfolio a bit more. I am looking for retirement income over the next 20 to 30 years to supplement my pension and wife's s s so with the small inheritance coming my way very soon, I plan to invest it all for our future.
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
That's why I never get out.. I'm not smart enough to discern the macro ups and downs.. but, I can look at history.. I've been in the market for a little over 30 years.. and, every major downturn has turned out to be a buying opportunity..
I will admit to not committing new money to the market when it is making new highs... I like to buy on the dips (though I often miss them).
On a bearish note... I've expressed my disdain for SHLD in here a few times.. In October, I backed that up by buying my first ever option.. A $500 bet on the stock going down... Closed it out last week for a $400 profit (76% gain in just under 3 months). If only I had the guts to make a $50K bet.. lol
@kyfdx@Edmunds said:
That's why I never get out.. I'm not smart enough to discern the macro ups and downs.. but, I can look at history.. I've been in the market for a little over 30 years.. and, every major downturn has turned out to be a buying opportunity..
That's my view as well. I rebalance to a target asset allocation. There are plenty of academic studies that show nobody can predict the market on a reliable basis. The best returns are obtained by the buy and hold, diversified approach.
Rebalance -- hold index funds and let the winners pay the losers once or twice a year. There's nothing glamorous about it, but it does work. I'll show you my 30-year charts if you'll show me yours.
I don't understand that stuff much, options, puts and calls, so I stay pretty simple in my investing. I know the wife would like me to get into tax free muni's like she has to offset any gains that we make in our stock portion of our portfolios and I have plans to do this once I get the check. Have already set up the account with her broker and told him that we both have the same goals and investing style so please get me into similar investments. He said sure so now all he needs is me to put the funds into the account...told him $25k to start. More later on down the line depending on the market...I really want income for the next many years!
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
World economic freedom has reached record levels, according to the 2014 Index of Economic Freedom, released Tuesday by the Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. But after seven straight years of decline, the U.S. has dropped out of the top 10 most economically free countries.
For 20 years, the index has measured a nation's commitment to free enterprise on a scale of 0 to 100 by evaluating 10 categories, including fiscal soundness, government size and property rights. These commitments have powerful effects: Countries achieving higher levels of economic freedom consistently and measurably outperform others in economic growth, long-term prosperity and social progress.
@gagrice said: Are we on a down hill slide to mediocrity??
You can pretty much blame that on Obama and the progressive democratic leadership. I do believe that the big gov. pendulum has swung about as far left as it can go, sort of like 1978 all over again. Reagan came in back then and got us back on track. I have high hopes that someone will appear in 2016 and get that pendulum swinging back toward the right and smaller, more transparent gov.
Whenever I reply to someone, sometimes my post shows up in the shaded box and sometimes it shows up below the shaded box, where I believe it should go. Anyone know why?
@houdini1 said:
Whenever I reply to someone, sometimes my post shows up in the shaded box and sometimes it shows up below the shaded box, where I believe it should go. Anyone know why?
If your comments are preceeded by a ">", then it will show up in the shaded box.
@houdini1 said:
You can pretty much blame that on Obama and the progressive democratic leadership. I do believe that the big gov. pendulum has swung about as far left as it can go, sort of like 1978 all over again. Reagan came in back then and got us back on track. I have high hopes that someone will appear in 2016 and get that pendulum swinging back toward the right and smaller, more transparent gov.
Well---all politicks aside--I believe we as a nation are making great strides overall....I am optimistic for the future, and although there is alot to further accomplish, alot has been accomplished....The stock market does not represent the contentment that most people have, about what they as individuals , have accomplished but it is getting there :-) Tony
Kind of a funny "study", no doubt politically driven. Mauritius, really? My metro area has more population than that entire "country" (really just another place for usually ill-gotten money to hide out). I'd like to see it measure socio-economic freedom, which is the most important part of pretty much any freedom. Of course, the US isn't perfect there, either.
For that opinion piece, it'd be fun to eliminate those who are just dumping grounds for sketchy money or are tax refuges dependent on others for local or regional protection. So Mauritius, Switzerland, Singapore, Ireland. It should be apples-to-apples, which it isn't.
And the other leaders on the list are all far more socialist than the US, have higher minimum wages relative to living costs, lower medical and education costs, etc - things that help people achieve more economic freedom. They also often have less personal freedom, again often a nanny state or surveillance state (hello UK). Would some people, the author included, make the trade? Or dare to examine the ratio between worker and exec pay in those nations compared to the US? They also don't have some leading US traits like an insane and out of control Praetorian sector, immigration disaster enabled by both defective sides of the aisle, decades of trickle down deceptions, destructive trade policies with "most favored" places, en masse offshoring by treacherous law-buying interests, and similar.
And about the downhill slide - that's a part of the Pandora's Box of "free trade" and globalization". All developed places are sliding in one way or another. It's a race to the bottom with a zero sum game of wealth creation. And through it all, the US still seems to attract the best and brightest in many cutting edge fields - so don't count it out just yet.
Of course, the author appears to be a career public sector type, now with the Heritage "foundation", so maybe some grains of salt are needed.
@gagrice said: Are we on a down hill slide to mediocrity??
/SB10001424052702303848104579308811265028066?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303848104579308811265028066.html
Whenever I reply to someone, sometimes my post shows up in the shaded box and sometimes it shows up below the shaded box, where I believe it should go. Anyone know why?
I BELIEVE IF YOUR NEW TEXT is on the next line after any text stream preceded by a ">" symbol, your text gets included in the quote (blue) box. The whole blue box can be controlled by one ">" symbol, as long as there are no empty lines. (The only ">" is before @Houdini1.)
FIRST AFTER EMPTY LINE: However if you do a blank linefeed and then start your answer, like this sentence, your text is not included in the blue box.
They also don't have some leading US traits like an insane and out of control Praetorian sector, immigration disaster enabled by both defective sides of the aisle, decades of trickle down deceptions, destructive trade policies with "most favored" places, en masse offshoring by treacherous law-buying interests, and similar.
And about the downhill slide - that's a part of the Pandora's Box of "free trade" and globalization".
I think it is simple to see why we are sliding down hill. You cannot support a third of the population with taxes from the other 2/3rds. Globalization is dilution of resources. Take from the rich country and give to the poor. We have been doing that since WW2. We let Japan dump cheap goods into our market place. Then it was TVs that wiped out our TV and electronics companies. Then Automobiles came by the boatload. And on top of it our Federal and some state governments make it a lot easier to get stuff made in Mexico, Korea or China. Now our President wants to expand that trade much further with TPP. We will be lucky to be in the top 20 by next year.
As well, the middle can't keep sacrificing means and stability to give gifts to the top few in hopes that a rising tide lifts all yachts. You can't create a trickle down wonderland when history proves over and over that it doesn't happen in reality. All that seems to happen is that jobs are sent away and education becomes less attainable, so more become that bottom third. Kind of a cycle, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Take from the rich and give a little to the poor (in exchange for environmental disaster and continued support of socially repressive and abusive regimes), with most going to the super-rich. Funny how inheritance of often ill-gotten gold is a "birthright" for the top few, but first world industry and social conditions aren't a birthright of first worlders who's ancestors built it.
More non-level playing field crap in TPP - "free trade"...it isn't really free and it's not much of a trade.
@gagrice said:
I think it is simple to see why we are sliding down hill. You cannot support a third of the population with taxes from the other 2/3rds. Globalization is dilution of resources. Take from the rich country and give to the poor. We have been doing that since WW2. We let Japan dump cheap goods into our market place. Then it was TVs that wiped out our TV and electronics companies. Then Automobiles came by the boatload. And on top of it our Federal and some state governments make it a lot easier to get stuff made in Mexico, Korea or China. Now our President wants to expand that trade much further with TPP. We will be lucky to be in the top 20 by next year.
For each person in the USA to pay their part would be a premium of at least $8k per year. Each man woman and child will have to pony up about $700 per month to make the current HC system break even. We know that will not happen. I find it interesting that the best HC in the World only costs $1409 a year per person. The Swiss even spend more than we do.
Well, at #37 according to the WHO, we really should be embarrassed. But I'm sure Congress and the Elite business managers in the USA don't count in this ranking, that's for sure!
If anyone seriously thinks that chart makes any sense at all, then I have a solution to all our health care problems. Save all that money you are spending on health insurance and if you become ill, just buy a plane ticket to some place like Libya. Libya is ranked near the top of the chart, cost of care per year is only a few hundred dollars, or about half of what we spend each month on healthcare.
Apparently you could save a bundle, even with transportation costs, plus the treatment and the outcome would be better. At the same time you would get the chance to see a little of the world, see how other folks live, and have a sort of mini vacation.
Remember, depending on how you cherry pick your data, you can "prove" about anything you want to....however, in this case, your real life experience might be very different from what you would be expecting on your visit to Libya.
All the HC debate got me thinking about HC stocks. Looks like UNH may be a good buy. Anyone else looking at HC stocks?
Earnings season is in full force on Wall Street, and as more components of the Dow Jones Industrials (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) start to report, the news they're providing is giving the market a much-needed boost after a gloomy start to 2014. Tomorrow morning, UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH ) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) will add their reports to the list, with Goldman continuing the litany of financial-company results while UnitedHealth gives an important read on the state of the health insurance sector following the implementation of Obamacare's insurance exchanges.
Just realize that those statistics happened before ACA and ACA isn't likely to change it much one way or the other. We have big problems and nobody wants to address the real issues.
We have big problems and nobody wants to address the real issues.
Exactly! The pundits say Obamacare is the answer. I'm sure it will morph into government controlled for everyone. Only a matter of time. The Doctors hate it, btw. The unbalance in costs just gets worse as many employers shift costs and delay hires because of the adjustments currently underway.
@gagrice said:
All the HC debate got me thinking about HC stocks. Looks like UNH may be a good buy. Anyone else looking at HC stocks?
I've held Vanguard Health Sector for 13 years or so, and when I checked at the end of '13 I saw 36.4% return for one year, 21.0% over 3 years and 11.0% over 10 years. Works for me.
You single stock guys scare me -- I'm too old for that stuff.
Our 401Ks are with Vanguard, and I have nothing but good things to say about them... but, almost any equity fund should be up a lot this year.
If we can get two more years like this year, I can go all to cash and retire! (no, I don't think that will happen.. and, if it does, I will probably stay invested and keep working... lol)
My 401K just got moved from from Edward Jones to Fidelity. Don't know if it matters any. Retirement? For my generation not in public sector, funny thought.
The car money I put in a couple Vanguard funds (not high risk, even) early last year is up over well 10%, maybe closer to 15%, not too shabby.
And regarding ACA and that study, indeed, little will change. Insurance companies still reign supreme.
@kyfdx@Edmunds said:
Our 401Ks are with Vanguard, and I have nothing but good things to say about them... but, almost any equity fund should be up a lot this year.
If we can get two more years like this year, I can go all to cash and retire! (no, I don't think that will happen.. and, if it does, I will probably stay invested and keep working... lol)
My 401K just got moved from from Edward Jones to Fidelity. Don't know if it matters any. Retirement? For my generation not in public sector, funny thought.
Well, with an above average income, a single person should have no problems retiring as long as sensible choices are made and spending is controlled. It could work - in spite of all the gloom and doom in the world. Optimism extends lifespans, too.
Of course, that's also in an area with many above average living costs. Who knows what medical costs and SS payouts will be after the boomers have their way with the system. I put away my recommended ~15%, so I am probably better off than many, but I still have concerns. My mom and dad won't be leaving me an insanely appreciated house. Of course, I could be gone at 50, or I could make it to 100, maybe best to not think about it too much, rather than be unreasonably pessimistic or optimistic.
@tlong said:
Well, with an above average income, a single person should have no problems retiring as long as sensible choices are made and spending is controlled. It could work - in spite of all the gloom and doom in the world. Optimism extends lifespans, too.
@fintail said:
Of course, that's also in an area with many above average living costs. Who knows what medical costs and SS payouts will be after the boomers have their way with the system. >
I can tell you that SS is a pittance in this day and age. I paid in 46 years and it barely pays the property tax and utilities. Those that expect SS to support them are going to be living in poverty. If I live to 85 I will break even on what my employer and I paid into SS. That does not include the 3% promised when SS was enacted. It is a ponzi scheme and MC is a HUGE ponzi scheme. I am hoping for 20 more years to get ahead of what I paid in Just had my MC annual and all systems are go. Keep working hard. I am now required to take out of my IRA each year. At the current required withdrawal it will only last another 29 years. Happy 100th birthday to me.
@fintail said:
You're pretty cantankerous, you might just make it to recoup that investment
Me, just had my free Medicare yearly physical. I am as mellow as they come. Never stress myself only others.
All but a couple grand of my IRA is in MM. I know I took poor advice from a financial guy back in Oct 2012 and got out of the market. Now I am afraid to get back in. I would probably make it tank.
I see a little cantankerousness in most posters. I still enjoy their opinions and debate. I know you share those same feelings. If we all agreed, they may as well shut down the forum and go home.
Will the new mayor bankrupt NYC? Or as a Californian quoted in the article said about taking a loss on his new $2 million home, “I can make half of it back in one year of tax savings.”
Mayor Bloomberg warned the City Council against frivolous tax hikes. “One percent of the households that file in this city pay something like 50% of the taxes. In the city, that’s something like 40,000 people. If a handful left, any raise would make it revenue neutral.”
New York City now has a radical leftist in Gracie Mansion, Bill de Blasio, a radical leftist City Council speaker, Melissa Mark-Viverito, and a radical leftist public advocate, Letitia James. The city is now run by the Working Families Party/ACORN and tax hikes will be used to finance generous payoffs to unions.
But the unions who rigged this election may never see those payoffs. New York City’s unfunded pensions are estimated as being as high as $136 billion. The crash may only be four years away.
The top 1 percent pay half the income taxes in the city and the top 10 percent pay 71 percent. Drive them away with tax hikes for municipal union goodies and the unions will have as much trouble collecting even basic benefits from New York as they do from Detroit.
But what percent do those 1% and 10% earn, and how much of the wealth do they hold? Nobody will touch that elephant in the room. I suspect nobody moves to Manhattan (which is a playground for sketchy offshore wealth and should-be-hanged FIRE sector leaders) for low taxes anyway. They move there to make money, especially in industries that have been bailed out by working class taxpayers, socialize losses and privatize profits, capitalism! We'll see what happens, but I'd wager it won't be much, if anything, even if the wannabe tycoon crowd hopes and prays for disaster.
Greenfield is also a bit of a nut, not a lot of real world cred there.
@fintail said:
But what percent do those 1% and 10% earn, and how much of the wealth do they hold? Nobody will touch that elephant in the room. I suspect nobody moves to Manhattan (which is a playground for sketchy offshore wealth and should-be-hanged FIRE sector leaders) for low taxes anyway. They move there to make money, especially in industries that have been bailed out by working class taxpayers, socialize losses and privatize profits, capitalism! We'll see what happens, but I'd wager it won't be much, if anything, even if the wannabe tycoon crowd hopes and prays for disaster.
Which brings up a point you have addressed many times. Mobility. I see the US workers mobility expanding in many jobs. Both my daughter and SIL were able to move to the Midwest and increase their overall wealth. Both are now working from home. Saving gas etc etc and making more than they were living in San Diego. Working from home has opened up a whole new world for many companies. If they don't have to suppy an office cubicle for you, they are ahead of the game. By contrast the Internet connection is chump change. My daughter supervises a large crew in Romania and my SIL does his software development at home. How much more mobility do you want? They could now live anywhere they want in the World and do their jobs.
How many day traders work from home. Probably 99% and from anywhere they like.
Comments
Am co-executor of my dad's smallish estate and need to go look at the whole file before I agree to the distributions that I have come up with. My twin questioned my honesty so have decided that I do need to read the whole file before I can "honestly" sign off on anything so there will be no distribution in 2013 as originally planned. Even the attorney who, is co-trustee, agreed that there is no rush to distribute the assets and that I should get familiar with what has taken place these last 20 something years! And I will!
_The Sandman
_
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
This is interesting re: AAPL:
Tim Cook gave himself a sizable slap on the wrist this past summer, docking himself $4 million in pay for Apple's underperforming stock price.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/30/technology/tim-cook-pay/index.html?iid=HP_LN
Since Apple's shares performed so poorly last year, Cook lost the entire 50% that was at risk. Apple's stock fell 26% between August 2012 and August 2013 (Cook's stocks vest each August), but the S&P 500 rose 18% during that same period.
How The NSA Hacks Your iPhone (Presenting DROPOUT JEEP)
Following up on the latest stunning revelations released yesterday by German Spiegel which exposed the spy agency's 50 page catalog of "backdoor penetration techniques", today during a speech given by Jacob Applebaum (@ioerror) at the 30th Chaos Communication Congress, a new bombshell emerged: specifically the complete and detailed description of how the NSA bugs, remotely, your iPhone. The way the NSA accomplishes this is using software known as Dropout Jeep, which it describes as follows: "DROPOUT JEEP is a software implant for the Apple iPhone that utilizes modular mission applications to provide specific SIGINT functionality. This functionality includes the ability to remotely push/pull files from the device. SMS retrieval, contact list retrieval, voicemail, geolocation, hot mic, camera capture, cell tower location, etc. Command, control and data exfiltration can occur over SMS messaging or a GPRS data connection. All communications with the implant will be covert and encrypted."
The flowchart of how the NSA makes your iPhone its iPhone is presented below:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/how-nsa-hacks-your-iphone-presenting-dropout-jeep
Are we witnessing the beginning of a big selloff??
Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.
Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.
In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.
With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.
Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.
Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.
So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?
http://www.newsmax.com/Outbrain/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265
What say ye all? Is this gloom and Doom or based in reality?
In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of “major reversals,” with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.
United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.
“Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles,” Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.
He doesn’t believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasn’t seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/03/the-bearish-call-to-end-all-bearish-calls/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth
There is always alot of uncertainty and forces that benefit from it....From my perspective it appears many of our past concerns have diminished, and although there may be a correction, I plan on using it to further purchase stocks.....Tony
I agree here with Tony and plan to start buying very soon. Also plan on getting into tax free muni's next month to diversify the portfolio a bit more. I am looking for retirement income over the next 20 to 30 years to supplement my pension and wife's s s so with the small inheritance coming my way very soon, I plan to invest it all for our future.
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
It appears he has a propensity for wild/failed speculations. I bet he has a holding of precious metals he is trying to maintain in price.
I got out in October of 2012 and missed a lot of money making. I just don't feel safe in the market.
That's why I never get out.. I'm not smart enough to discern the macro ups and downs.. but, I can look at history.. I've been in the market for a little over 30 years.. and, every major downturn has turned out to be a buying opportunity..
I will admit to not committing new money to the market when it is making new highs... I like to buy on the dips (though I often miss them).
On a bearish note... I've expressed my disdain for SHLD in here a few times.. In October, I backed that up by buying my first ever option.. A $500 bet on the stock going down... Closed it out last week for a $400 profit (76% gain in just under 3 months). If only I had the guts to make a $50K bet.. lol
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That's my view as well. I rebalance to a target asset allocation. There are plenty of academic studies that show nobody can predict the market on a reliable basis. The best returns are obtained by the buy and hold, diversified approach.
Rebalance -- hold index funds and let the winners pay the losers once or twice a year. There's nothing glamorous about it, but it does work. I'll show you my 30-year charts if you'll show me yours.
I don't understand that stuff much, options, puts and calls, so I stay pretty simple in my investing. I know the wife would like me to get into tax free muni's like she has to offset any gains that we make in our stock portion of our portfolios and I have plans to do this once I get the check. Have already set up the account with her broker and told him that we both have the same goals and investing style so please get me into similar investments. He said sure so now all he needs is me to put the funds into the account...told him $25k to start. More later on down the line depending on the market...I really want income for the next many years!
The Sandman
2023 Hyundai Kona Limited AWD (wife) / 2025 VW GTI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2) / 2023 Subaru Impreza Base (son)
Are we on a down hill slide to mediocrity??
World economic freedom has reached record levels, according to the 2014 Index of Economic Freedom, released Tuesday by the Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. But after seven straight years of decline, the U.S. has dropped out of the top 10 most economically free countries.
For 20 years, the index has measured a nation's commitment to free enterprise on a scale of 0 to 100 by evaluating 10 categories, including fiscal soundness, government size and property rights. These commitments have powerful effects: Countries achieving higher levels of economic freedom consistently and measurably outperform others in economic growth, long-term prosperity and social progress.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303848104579308811265028066?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303848104579308811265028066.html
You can pretty much blame that on Obama and the progressive democratic leadership. I do believe that the big gov. pendulum has swung about as far left as it can go, sort of like 1978 all over again. Reagan came in back then and got us back on track. I have high hopes that someone will appear in 2016 and get that pendulum swinging back toward the right and smaller, more transparent gov.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Whenever I reply to someone, sometimes my post shows up in the shaded box and sometimes it shows up below the shaded box, where I believe it should go. Anyone know why?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
If your comments are preceeded by a ">", then it will show up in the shaded box.
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2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
Ah, thanks Michaell !
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Well---all politicks aside--I believe we as a nation are making great strides overall....I am optimistic for the future, and although there is alot to further accomplish, alot has been accomplished....The stock market does not represent the contentment that most people have, about what they as individuals , have accomplished but it is getting there :-) Tony
Kind of a funny "study", no doubt politically driven. Mauritius, really? My metro area has more population than that entire "country" (really just another place for usually ill-gotten money to hide out). I'd like to see it measure socio-economic freedom, which is the most important part of pretty much any freedom. Of course, the US isn't perfect there, either.
For that opinion piece, it'd be fun to eliminate those who are just dumping grounds for sketchy money or are tax refuges dependent on others for local or regional protection. So Mauritius, Switzerland, Singapore, Ireland. It should be apples-to-apples, which it isn't.
And the other leaders on the list are all far more socialist than the US, have higher minimum wages relative to living costs, lower medical and education costs, etc - things that help people achieve more economic freedom. They also often have less personal freedom, again often a nanny state or surveillance state (hello UK). Would some people, the author included, make the trade? Or dare to examine the ratio between worker and exec pay in those nations compared to the US? They also don't have some leading US traits like an insane and out of control Praetorian sector, immigration disaster enabled by both defective sides of the aisle, decades of trickle down deceptions, destructive trade policies with "most favored" places, en masse offshoring by treacherous law-buying interests, and similar.
And about the downhill slide - that's a part of the Pandora's Box of "free trade" and globalization". All developed places are sliding in one way or another. It's a race to the bottom with a zero sum game of wealth creation. And through it all, the US still seems to attract the best and brightest in many cutting edge fields - so don't count it out just yet.
Of course, the author appears to be a career public sector type, now with the Heritage "foundation", so maybe some grains of salt are needed.
@houdini1 said:
I BELIEVE IF YOUR NEW TEXT is on the next line after any text stream preceded by a ">" symbol, your text gets included in the quote (blue) box. The whole blue box can be controlled by one ">" symbol, as long as there are no empty lines. (The only ">" is before @Houdini1.)
FIRST AFTER EMPTY LINE: However if you do a blank linefeed and then start your answer, like this sentence, your text is not included in the blue box.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Thanks imid. Works like a charm !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Pretty much anything "foundation" means they are on somebody's dole.
They also don't have some leading US traits like an insane and out of control Praetorian sector, immigration disaster enabled by both defective sides of the aisle, decades of trickle down deceptions, destructive trade policies with "most favored" places, en masse offshoring by treacherous law-buying interests, and similar.
I think it is simple to see why we are sliding down hill. You cannot support a third of the population with taxes from the other 2/3rds. Globalization is dilution of resources. Take from the rich country and give to the poor. We have been doing that since WW2. We let Japan dump cheap goods into our market place. Then it was TVs that wiped out our TV and electronics companies. Then Automobiles came by the boatload. And on top of it our Federal and some state governments make it a lot easier to get stuff made in Mexico, Korea or China. Now our President wants to expand that trade much further with TPP. We will be lucky to be in the top 20 by next year.
As well, the middle can't keep sacrificing means and stability to give gifts to the top few in hopes that a rising tide lifts all yachts. You can't create a trickle down wonderland when history proves over and over that it doesn't happen in reality. All that seems to happen is that jobs are sent away and education becomes less attainable, so more become that bottom third. Kind of a cycle, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Take from the rich and give a little to the poor (in exchange for environmental disaster and continued support of socially repressive and abusive regimes), with most going to the super-rich. Funny how inheritance of often ill-gotten gold is a "birthright" for the top few, but first world industry and social conditions aren't a birthright of first worlders who's ancestors built it.
More non-level playing field crap in TPP - "free trade"...it isn't really free and it's not much of a trade.
Take a look at our Health Care rating...Go ACA!
http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/most-efficient-health-care-countries
The vast majority of top countries are either single payer government systems or have the requirement of forced health care savings or insurance.
Remember folks - ACA isn't a single payer system. It's designed to bring affordable insurance to everyone.
For each person in the USA to pay their part would be a premium of at least $8k per year. Each man woman and child will have to pony up about $700 per month to make the current HC system break even. We know that will not happen. I find it interesting that the best HC in the World only costs $1409 a year per person. The Swiss even spend more than we do.
Well, at #37 according to the WHO, we really should be embarrassed. But I'm sure Congress and the Elite business managers in the USA don't count in this ranking, that's for sure!
http://thepatientfactor.com/canadian-health-care-information/world-health-organizations-ranking-of-the-worlds-health-systems/
If anyone seriously thinks that chart makes any sense at all, then I have a solution to all our health care problems. Save all that money you are spending on health insurance and if you become ill, just buy a plane ticket to some place like Libya. Libya is ranked near the top of the chart, cost of care per year is only a few hundred dollars, or about half of what we spend each month on healthcare.
Apparently you could save a bundle, even with transportation costs, plus the treatment and the outcome would be better. At the same time you would get the chance to see a little of the world, see how other folks live, and have a sort of mini vacation.
Remember, depending on how you cherry pick your data, you can "prove" about anything you want to....however, in this case, your real life experience might be very different from what you would be expecting on your visit to Libya.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
**Not to worry, we should soon be at the top of all those lists. **
Getting backs to stocks - GM declared a $0.30/share quarterly dividend. That's about a 3% at today's price.
All the HC debate got me thinking about HC stocks. Looks like UNH may be a good buy. Anyone else looking at HC stocks?
Earnings season is in full force on Wall Street, and as more components of the Dow Jones Industrials (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) start to report, the news they're providing is giving the market a much-needed boost after a gloomy start to 2014. Tomorrow morning, UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH ) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) will add their reports to the list, with Goldman continuing the litany of financial-company results while UnitedHealth gives an important read on the state of the health insurance sector following the implementation of Obamacare's insurance exchanges.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/15/why-unitedhealth-group-and-goldman-sachs-will-move.aspx
Just realize that those statistics happened before ACA and ACA isn't likely to change it much one way or the other. We have big problems and nobody wants to address the real issues.
Exactly! The pundits say Obamacare is the answer. I'm sure it will morph into government controlled for everyone. Only a matter of time. The Doctors hate it, btw. The unbalance in costs just gets worse as many employers shift costs and delay hires because of the adjustments currently underway.
I've held Vanguard Health Sector for 13 years or so, and when I checked at the end of '13 I saw 36.4% return for one year, 21.0% over 3 years and 11.0% over 10 years. Works for me.
You single stock guys scare me -- I'm too old for that stuff.
Our 401Ks are with Vanguard, and I have nothing but good things to say about them... but, almost any equity fund should be up a lot this year.
If we can get two more years like this year, I can go all to cash and retire! (no, I don't think that will happen.. and, if it does, I will probably stay invested and keep working... lol)
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My 401K just got moved from from Edward Jones to Fidelity. Don't know if it matters any. Retirement? For my generation not in public sector, funny thought.
The car money I put in a couple Vanguard funds (not high risk, even) early last year is up over well 10%, maybe closer to 15%, not too shabby.
And regarding ACA and that study, indeed, little will change. Insurance companies still reign supreme.
Well, with an above average income, a single person should have no problems retiring as long as sensible choices are made and spending is controlled. It could work - in spite of all the gloom and doom in the world. Optimism extends lifespans, too.
Of course, that's also in an area with many above average living costs. Who knows what medical costs and SS payouts will be after the boomers have their way with the system. I put away my recommended ~15%, so I am probably better off than many, but I still have concerns. My mom and dad won't be leaving me an insanely appreciated house. Of course, I could be gone at 50, or I could make it to 100, maybe best to not think about it too much, rather than be unreasonably pessimistic or optimistic.
I can tell you that SS is a pittance in this day and age. I paid in 46 years and it barely pays the property tax and utilities. Those that expect SS to support them are going to be living in poverty. If I live to 85 I will break even on what my employer and I paid into SS. That does not include the 3% promised when SS was enacted. It is a ponzi scheme and MC is a HUGE ponzi scheme. I am hoping for 20 more years to get ahead of what I paid in
Just had my MC annual and all systems are go. Keep working hard. I am now required to take out of my IRA each year. At the current required withdrawal it will only last another 29 years. Happy 100th birthday to me.
Gary, we hope to all be here in 29 years wishing you a happy birthday! I wonder if we will be communicating with neural implants by then..
You're pretty cantankerous, you might just make it to recoup that investment
Me, just had my free Medicare yearly physical. I am as mellow as they come. Never stress myself only others.
All but a couple grand of my IRA is in MM. I know I took poor advice from a financial guy back in Oct 2012 and got out of the market. Now I am afraid to get back in. I would probably make it tank.
I've seen you cantankerous as well!
I see a little cantankerousness in most posters. I still enjoy their opinions and debate. I know you share those same feelings. If we all agreed, they may as well shut down the forum and go home.
Very well said. For clarification, I was referring to fintail, not you!
Will the new mayor bankrupt NYC? Or as a Californian quoted in the article said about taking a loss on his new $2 million home, “I can make half of it back in one year of tax savings.”
Mayor Bloomberg warned the City Council against frivolous tax hikes. “One percent of the households that file in this city pay something like 50% of the taxes. In the city, that’s something like 40,000 people. If a handful left, any raise would make it revenue neutral.”
New York City now has a radical leftist in Gracie Mansion, Bill de Blasio, a radical leftist City Council speaker, Melissa Mark-Viverito, and a radical leftist public advocate, Letitia James. The city is now run by the Working Families Party/ACORN and tax hikes will be used to finance generous payoffs to unions.
But the unions who rigged this election may never see those payoffs. New York City’s unfunded pensions are estimated as being as high as $136 billion. The crash may only be four years away.
The top 1 percent pay half the income taxes in the city and the top 10 percent pay 71 percent. Drive them away with tax hikes for municipal union goodies and the unions will have as much trouble collecting even basic benefits from New York as they do from Detroit.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/killing-the-1-golden-goose/
But what percent do those 1% and 10% earn, and how much of the wealth do they hold? Nobody will touch that elephant in the room. I suspect nobody moves to Manhattan (which is a playground for sketchy offshore wealth and should-be-hanged FIRE sector leaders) for low taxes anyway. They move there to make money, especially in industries that have been bailed out by working class taxpayers, socialize losses and privatize profits, capitalism! We'll see what happens, but I'd wager it won't be much, if anything, even if the wannabe tycoon crowd hopes and prays for disaster.
Greenfield is also a bit of a nut, not a lot of real world cred there.
Which brings up a point you have addressed many times. Mobility. I see the US workers mobility expanding in many jobs. Both my daughter and SIL were able to move to the Midwest and increase their overall wealth. Both are now working from home. Saving gas etc etc and making more than they were living in San Diego. Working from home has opened up a whole new world for many companies. If they don't have to suppy an office cubicle for you, they are ahead of the game. By contrast the Internet connection is chump change. My daughter supervises a large crew in Romania and my SIL does his software development at home. How much more mobility do you want? They could now live anywhere they want in the World and do their jobs.
How many day traders work from home. Probably 99% and from anywhere they like.