The Stock Market and Investing

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  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,206
    With the financial problems that Dubai is having, that emerging speculative oil bubble may burst like Krakatoa...and take a lot of folks with it.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Charlie,

    Told you I'd meet you here... LOL!

    With all those various tech stocks I bought recently, I've had some very mixed results. They've been popping up and down, some quite dramatically. It is surprising to me, because there doesn't seem to be any real logic to it, and certainly very little stability. It is a concern, and I can't help but wonder if stocks are a good investment any more.

    Consider that since 1999, the S&P 500 has been a LOSER! Wow... that's a whole decade of going nowhere!

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Consider that since 1999, the S&P 500 has been a LOSER! Wow... that's a whole decade of going nowhere!

    Going nowhere but also going to the moon and back during that period :D .

    I have also had my ups and downs in the stocks I bought lately. The Dubai news back on Friday obviously did not help. I am hoping and thinking that it is an isolated case and not something that will spread like wildfire. We need Len over here to give us some of his expert insight.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    I have confidence in Len... he's a class act, IMO... and I think (and certainly hope) he will be here when he gets the opportunity.

    His previous post would suggest that Apple is still a good buy, and I am inclined to agree with that. I think I should weed out some of the poor performing stocks (out of the 21), and consider buying some more Apple.

    Also, I think solid large cap stocks that pay dividends are probably a good idea right now.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    His previous post would suggest that Apple is still a good buy, and I am inclined to agree with that. I think I should weed out some of the poor performing stocks (out of the 21), and consider buying some more Apple.

    I don't remember if I told you several weks ago that I actually did buy a little Apple stock at 191.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    I don't remember if I told you several weks ago that I actually did buy a little Apple stock at 191.

    No, you didn't mention it, but that's very good in the long run. I wasn't all that much ahead of you... it was 187 and change when I bought some. I only bought 53 shares because I bought 20 other stocks at that same time. But now, as I mentioned, I am thinking of weeding out some of those that aren't doing very well and focusing more on the better ones, and I also intend to focus on quality stocks that pay dividends.

    I'll update you on this soon, as I am seriously thinking about making these adjustments possibly tomorrow or Wednesday.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I only bought 50 shares of Apple but I guess it's better than nothing.

    I kind of like what I have been hearing and reading (if one believes it) about the domestic and world economies the past few days. 11,000 Dow by the end of the year is not at all out of the question. I am optimistic about 2010 as well. I think now that Dubai was indeed an isolated case. One of these days maybe Len will join in this discussion.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    It would be awesome if we could have a healthy economy without any of the constant scandals.

    To me, 12,000 for the Dow next summer seems realistic. Also, consider the possibility of a surge in small caps first half of next year if the economy gets healthy enough.

    And, let's just keep hoping that Len enlightens us with his presence here soon. In the meantime, you and I will make sure we stoke the fire.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I love the market action this morning after the bullish employment figures came out. To the moon Alice, to the moon :surprise: !
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    "To me, 12,000 for the Dow next summer seems realistic."

    I've got to love you Tag. You thought I was nuts with Dow 10K by end of this year when I said that last March or so and now you're trumping me 20%. Just kidding you my friend.

    I've been real busy. Stopped in a few weeks back but didn't see any new posts. So no I'm not abandoning my friends.

    Briefly, I've loved the large caps till now because of the dollar and their international trading ability but I also am thinking small caps are ripe to get into. So Tag I'm 100% with you on that. But I do Ithink there's going to be tremendous resistance near 11.000 on the Dow and 1200 on the S&P. I hope I'm wrong but that's my gut. If that resistance isn't there than we will run to 12,000 by next summer and then fall back to a trading range in the 11-12,000 range IMO. I always thought Dow 10K by now was an easy call for two reasons. 1. getting some valuation realism back into Wall Street and 2. the tremendous productivity and margin improvements due to the massive layoffs (both of these occuring with just marginal or even no economic growth). All of this so far has been jobless and oil-less. The fact that we are still building tremendous gas stocks (+4mln more this week) in the face of refinery utilization that's been constantly decreasing and is now lower than after Katrina (actually has been for weeks now) shows there is simply no demand at all, and in fact we are still waning there and will be for quite a while to come. What I am amazed at in oil is the level of patience speculators have shown to keep buying something that has so little demand. I was right about consumption but dead wrong about speculation interest lasting in the face of such terrible data.

    Anyway to get the next leg up to a firm 12,000 that is buildable higher we are going to need to see unemployment start to fall and we are going to need a very slow Fed tightening and we can't have tax increases. I don't agree with anyone that sees the Fed tightening soon simply because inflation is at bay and there are still way too many reasons not to tighten. I'm loving the $5,000 gold predictions. Reminds me of Dow 36,000 and oil $500. Whenever you see that level of extremism predicted get the hell out and take your profits. Anything predicted to that extreme may run up a bit more but those are the first signs of a big fall in the not to distant future. Number 1 rule of investing to me is you don't have to sell at the peak, nor do you have to buy at the bottom. Getting 80-85% of peak will do wonders for you all the time.

    As for the speeding ticket - It's been handled. Damm Mercedes has to be so quiet at 82mph! Still absolutely love it Tag, It's a phenomenal SUV.

    Charlie - Have you seen Barrow recently? Ocean frozen and snow covered. How anyone lives there is beyond me. The webcam site had a beautiful full moon yesterday shining on the frozen ocean in the waning days of twilight.

    Hope you guys all had a great Thanksgiving.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Len, it is SO great to hear from you again. This feels like a brother who was lost but has now been found once again, and this is a time for celebration. We don't agree on a few topics (e.g. Obama) but hey, I disagree on more topics with my brother.

    In my opinion, you have not gotten enough credit for your stock market and economic predictions. You have been dead on. I'm sure Tag will agree :D . I am rather optimistic that we will indeed see a slow improvement in unemployment and I very much doubt that the Fed will do anything that is aggressive.

    The gold "freaks" got really pummeled yesterday and I believe this is just the start.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Glad you are busy, (that's a blessing, IMO) and hope you and the family are doing well.

    Ha... yes, I originally thought your 10K Dow prediction was a bit optimistic, true... but not by such a huge margin to think you were nuts... although I might find other reasons to think you are a nut... haha. IIRC, I was expecting it's highest year-end achievement could reach around 9250. Not only were you right about the 10K, but the market reached your prediction much earlier than anyone suggested. You impressed all of us.

    Your predictions of a major drop in oil prices earlier in the year, however, were frustrated by continued high prices... and that time you thought I was the nut on my prediction that they would stay high. But...I want you to know that even though you missed the timing on that one... I predict they will indeed finally drop next year. The truth is that your reasoning was sound, but the market was illogical and irrational.

    Yes, let's hope for minimum resistance at the 11-12K level for the Dow, and let's hope the jobs situation starts to improve with VERY careful fed tightening. I am concerned that the fed might tighten too early or quickly and kill the recovery.

    Your prediction for Apple stock to go above 300 is encouraging, as I have purchased even more Apple this week on the dip, and now have over 100 shares, along with numerous other stocks. The thing about Apple that is bothering me, however, is that they have recently missed two key opportunities to kick butt. One is on the operating system side, as Windows 7 will force folks to purchase a new OS, Apple has missed this golden opportunity to really promote their OS as a better alternative. Second, regarding the explosive netbook category... the so-called Apple "tablet" is already later to the game than it should be, and they should also have another piece of hardware that is smaller than the Macbook Air, and they don't. That said, I have enough confidence in Apple to own its stock.

    Anyway, I weeded out a fair number of stocks, took profit on some and cut losses on others, and I will share my latest picks next week when I get a chance. I was pleased to realize how well I've been doing with Advanced Micro Devices lately.

    I completely agree that it is better to be satisfied with 80-85% of the peaks and dips and not get all too greedy.

    Glad the MBZ is treating you so well. The GL is still the best large SUV out there... hands down, IMO.

    Charlie and I will continue to look forward to your posts... and, depending upon the topic, we will either find you here or at the LL.

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    I`m glad I finally found the forum, thanks to Tag.....Glad everyone is doing o k , and just to add a bit of encouragement to Apple, I made the change from a pc to an Apple......What a fabulous store , we have one in Charleston.....The MacBook Pro---smallest one---power wise--is so much better than any Dell and not having to deal with the GUYS who trick you because you are ignorant, is worth more than the computer....No question in my mind that the stock will go higher over time just due to the products......Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Tony! Soooo glad you found us! :)

    Please tell me about your experience with that MacBook Pro. I've been thinking about one for quite a while, and might take the plunge next Spring.

    And yes, I totally agree that Apple stock will go higher.

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Hi Tag

    If possible buy one from an Apple store...You willl be most impressed with the experience.....Of course I really dreaded changing, but was so tired and put out with the entire pc experience that I made the decision to do the change no matter what...After making the decision, I went up there to the store, maybe eight to ten blocks away, and just scoped it out...It is such a well run store, and the people are not paid a commission, but just paid no matter what, that they just take all the time YOU need, and are very willing to help no matter the concern you have..

    I suggest buying the one hundred dollar deal that gives an hour a week appointment, and they change all the stuff from the pc to the Apple......

    Of all people over the years that we have come across on Edmonds, I would have bet big that you had an apple, with all your graphic art, and depth of knowledge in the advertising and printing business...I guess I would have lost :)

    I am still getting use to the keyboard, so you will see where I hit the keyboard too many times ect........I alos had to use the phone in help line once, and the person did not say to go to someone else, but just straightened out the problem in a very patient manner......

    I was so impressed with the experienced, I put aapl on my moniter, and the day before the earnings came out baught it for a quick trade and was nicely rewarded---I think 186 or 7 to 203 or 4 , and then on the pullback another five points....haven`t touched it again....not any more trades at all since then either, as I`l just loose :) Tony
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Tag,

    Maybe oil is having that fallback I thought afterall, just later than I thought. I'm amazed speculators stood their ground this long in the face of such terrible numbers. A little strength in the dollar and we can easily see oil fall to the 50's and IMO it's still properly priced in the 40's.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    Enjoy that insert key. :shades:

    Do you guys play woulda, coulda, shoulda? My Mac maven friend tried to get me to buy some Apple when there was real concern that they were going under. Microsoft did a stock deal for ~$300 million to help keep them afloat.

    Anyway, the stock was about $12.50 at the time.

    And there's been at least one split since then. :)
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Hi

    Back in the beginning , the Apple board fired Steve Jobs, and hired a guy from Pepsi...I being very prejudiced about that swore off Apple, and never looked back.....In fact I didn`t even buy a computer until maybe 99 or 98, I forget....The thing about the stock, and most stocks is they don`t pay a dividend , therefore I am not going to be around long.......now a bond is another animal, but for a person to really save a decent amount it has to be in a tax free account, say for retirement...Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Of all people over the years that we have come across on Edmonds, I would have bet big that you had an apple, with all your graphic art, and depth of knowledge in the advertising and printing business...I guess I would have lost

    I don't think you would have lost. Depends upon how you define it. My company uses both platforms, so there are numerous Macs and PCs. In the beginning, the Macs dominated the graphics design field. But, for quite a long while, those Macs were stuck in a rut without the Intel chips, and the PCs became much faster than the Macs. Graphics design software manufacturers began supplying equivalent high-end graphics software for the PC, so eventually it made sense to use the PCs when possible, and leave the Macs idle except for when necessary.

    In the recent years, however, the Macs are powerful again, but we don't need to acquire any more Macs than what we already have, and when we consider that the PCs are being used successfully most of the time.

    Away from the company, I personally use a juiced-up Dell XPS. I understand that Dell is discontinuing their line of XPS desktops and promoting Alienware (since they bought Alienware recently).

    In addition to the Apple MacBook Pro that you just purchased, I have been eyeballing the HP netbook with nVidia Ion graphics, but that lousy Atom processor isn't scheduled to be improved until next year.

    Anyway... keep your Apple stock... I believe it's going to reward you nicely.

    Nice to hear from you again! :)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Maybe oil is having that fallback I thought afterall, just later than I thought.

    Hah... and, I knew the Dow would reach 10,000, but it happened sooner than I thought. ;)

    Obviously, it was the timing component of our forecasts that made you right on the Dow and wrong on the oil, and made me wrong on the Dow and right on the oil.

    What gets me though, is that technically you really should have been right, but the markets don't always do what makes sense... that's why we end up with crazy bubbles and crashes. Ultimately the fundamentals typically prevail... but too often not at the right time. Perhaps it has something to do with greed, speculation, manipulation, corruption, and that irrational exhuberance thing.

    :)
    TM
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Do you guys play woulda, coulda, shoulda?

    I bought a whole bunch of Genentech, Intel, and Motorola in 1992. I can't remember the prices, but consider that was around 18 years ago. My wife became pregnant with our first, and for some crazy reason I thought I should not take any chances with the stock market, so I sold all my stocks at that time.

    I "shoulda" kept 'em. :cry:

    TM
  • Sandman6472Sandman6472 Coral Springs, FLMember Posts: 5,784
    Am about to get this sum and went to a local financial planner whom I listen to on the radio. Nice enough guy but he wanted to put it all into preferred stock of some good dividend companies. I feel that that's a risky play and want a consistent 6 to 7 percent return on this money. Already have a small chunk of AT&T in my Scottrade account and figured on just adding to my position and put some into my 2009 Roth IRA. Am already somewhat invested in the emerging markets so I'm somewhat diversified. Am also thinking about laddering some muni bonds to complete the picture.

    Is his suggestion of buying some preferred's a smart strategy? Don't really have a need to touch this money for awhile, as I'll be retireing from 30 year government service in about 400 days. Also a 50/50 chance that I'll be going out on full disability if the Department Of Labor will approve my doctor's medical recommendations. Any help would be appreciated.

    The Sandman :sick: :shades:

    2015 Audi A3 (wife) / 2015 Golf TSI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2)

  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,206
    I will just give you some general advice since I don't know your entire situation. Since you will be retiring soon I would lean toward income producing stocks/bonds instead of growth stocks.

    There are some good muni bond funds out there that are pretty safe and will give you the return you are looking for. Try to find a muni bond fund that is also tax free for the state you are in. There are also some good safe utility funds that pay a steady dividend in the range you mentioned.

    That said, nothing is 100% safe, especially at the returns you are looking for. Good luck and I hope things work out.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    sandman,

    I see two approaches...

    Since you are already invested, the real question for you is whether or not you will truly need this money, because the general tendency is that the higher level of risk, the higher level of return. and that is what you need to keep in mind.

    So, approach one is this... if you can afford to take the risk, you can invest in some speculative stocks mixed in with some stocks that are likely to provide big gains due to the current national and global situation. For example, there are certain emerging technologies that could be of interest to you as well as hammered stocks that are still likely to rebound very big, and for further example, also key stocks that are involved with the huge mobile communications explosion that is still in its early stages on a global level. This first approach will sometimes have larger price swings and volatility, and will require maintenance now and then... pulling some losers out and adding some others that you expect to do well, or buying more shares of those that are doing terrific... but this approach can reap sizeable gains... sometimes incredible... and you could also lose it all, although not likely. Once thing for sure, it will certainly be more exciting than the next approach.

    Approach two is more like this... much less risk and will build over longer time. Invest in solid companies that pay dividends. It's a smart way to go. Also, bonds that are highly rated, or managed bond funds. Don't automatically expect that tax-free bonds are better... they can be, but not always as it depends upon the net after-tax result. If you like, put a small percentage in some conservative stock funds as well. This approach will likely end up making you some gains, but probably nothing to write home about, and it will be boring. You will not be paying attention to it on any regular basis. Once in a while you will read your statements and see how everything is going. Most likely result is that your investments will build slowly (and not very large) over time. Perhaps you prefer this, only you know.

    Again, consider your current investments. If they are already balanced and "steady-as-she goes", then you can either do more of the same, or fast track things a bit.

    Good luck!

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Need your help. How do you read this east coast storm. The NAM has me in 25"+ snow totals. Euro has me near 20" and the awful GFS has less than 6". I never doubt the Euro-Nam connection.

    What's your thoughts on this thing. This is the worst looking storm for central NJ since the blizzard of 96, which brought nearly 3 feet.

    I'll go back to the markets after I figure out what's happening in weather around here. Too many strategic holiday things going on this weekend and I just got caught up in weather data that may wreck them.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Len,

    A powerful East Coast storm will clobber the mid-Atlantic region later Friday into Saturday. Heavy snow from western North Carolina to southern New Jersey will cause a serious disruption of travel. Roads will turn icy and snow covered, and major airports such as Dulles and Baltimore-Washington International will have lengthy flight delays. Snow accumulations from central Virginia to Delaware will be as much as 10 or 12 inches.

    Along the coast, there will be strong gales, major coastal flooding and beach erosion. Friday night into Saturday, winds from Cape Hatteras to Atlantic City may exceed 50 miles per hour at times. This storm will hit the same portion of the coast that was devastated by strong winds and flooding back in November.

    How much snow will fall in New York City and southern New England remains uncertain at this time. Our latest snowfall forecast is for significantly lower amounts, but that idea might have to be scrapped. Storms that become as strong as this one will often spread heavy precipitation farther north than expected.

    We've go another day to figure that one out. In the meantime, plan on a big snow through the mid-Atlantic region beginning later Friday.

    Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.


    Sounds like you've got a nasty couple of days ahead.

    Makes me appreciate my earlier post to OW on the LL... I mentioned the temperature here got into the 70's today. I still can't believe how nice the weather is here most of the time.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Sorry, didn't mean to interfere. I know Len addressed his post to you, and you are the resident meteorologist around here! I just can't believe the difference in the east coast weather and the weather here. Amazing.

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Well the blizzard has arrived. 23 degrees, 6" of snow on the ground, snowing 3" an hour and 2 feet or more predicted.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Oh wow! I am really sorry Len and Tag! I did not look at this forum for a few days and wouldn't you know it? My good forum buddies are asking for my assistance on the weather forecast. My forecast for New York City (Laguardia) was for about 10 inches but for considerably more easton Long Island and much less in the northwest suburbs of New York in far northern Jersey and southeast NY. That's what Laguardia got I believe). I was projecting between 13 and 16 inches for central and much of southern New Jersey. I was thinking that as the storm got really wrapped up, there would be backlash snow in eastern MA, but I was not expecting almost 2 feet that my sister ended up with in Lakeville, MA (about 15-20 miles north of the Cape). I was thinking about a foot for them. I believe Boston ended up with a foot or so.

    Once again, I apologize for not paying more attention to this forum lately. I know we have some interesting things to talk about on the stock market and the economy in general in the next several months.

    BTW, we are looking at a new giant storm here in much of IA for Wednesday through Friday. This is a very complex system since it closes off aloft and the models are having a devil of a time with its track. Depending on the model, central IA could end up with anywhere between 5 inches (New European Model from earlier today since it has a mixture for quite a while) to as much as 1.5-2 feet based on the latest GFS. I am leaning more toward the GFS right now since the European has been all over the place, but it is a very tricky forecast.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    What are the final results from this blizzard? How much snow?... any colateral damage?

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Charlie/Tag,

    Amazing storm. Ended up with 23". Cold sub 25 degree storm, rare here for December but common in January and February. Most of it fell in 9 hours.We had whiteout conditions for hours with 3" an hour snows. Parts of far south Jersey had 30-35" with lightning and thunder. They were in 40-45dbz banding, probably 4-5" an hour snow if you can believe it! Thundersnow is probably more common here as the ocean brings convection in bombing storms. The famous 1983 blizzard on the east coast produced many hours of lightning, including dangerous cloud to ground lightning in sub 20 degree temps. That was the only time I was ever afraid to go out in snow. Anyway we cancelled all our Saturday plans as a result. It proved to be a very difficult storm to forecast as the cutoff in precipitation was very sharp. 60 miles north of here at my office they barely had 4" and my son at Rutgers, 25 minutes from here had half the amounts I had here.

    Collateral damage - Retailers on their most important weekend of the Christmas season. Here in this area the worst of the storm held off to late saturday afternon so that at least helped them.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Here's two pix:

    In this one the dark streaks thatyou have to really look hard to see, beyond the tall blue spruce on my property are the tall trees in the woods across the street (about 150 feet away). This whiteout actually got a lot worse a few minutes later.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2mfc17o&s=6

    Got about another 3" overnight after I shot this one. My pool is straight down the steps and Tag, it was featured in NJ Design Magazine back in May.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2h4j8gh&s=6

    Charlie, heck of a winter so far. Two historic storms, one midwest, one east coast in a few weeks.

    OK now I'll go back to investing.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Amazing, truly amazing! Thanks for the description and the photos. Believe it or not, once in a while we have thunder snows here in the Midwest as well. I remember one storm in early January of 1996 when temperatures were in the single digits to low teens, snow was falling at the rate of 2-3 inches an hour during the afternoon, and there was loud, crackling thunder with rather vicious lightning. That was one of the most incredible natural phenomenons I have ever witnessed.

    The latest model consensus tracks this next wicked low pressure system a little further north and west. This would bring Des Moines a mixture of everything for quite a while before changing back to all snow. IF this track verifies, Des Moines would probably end up with about 10 inches after it is all said and done. However, western IA, eastern NE, southeast SD, and much of MN would pick up 1.5-2 feet of snow with mountainous drifts. The models are still having a very difficult time with this since it gets captured underneath the upper level low. We may not know with any certainty, the track of this system until later Wenesday or even Thursday (it is that complex). Needless to say, I am getting flooded with traveling condition requests from friends and relatives and also I am giving frequent updates on a Cyclone (Iowa State University) sports forum.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    If you can - post a link to where you post. Maybe we can also meet up there. I'm also a big sports nut though NY football is turning out to be a disaster this year. Have always been a Yankee fan but a 220 million dollar payroll is starting to be a huge turnoff. Money can buy you anything and when a 220mln team plays a 70mln team it's not a sport anymore.. That's like having a heavyweight champ fight a feather weight champ. Even Yanks-Phillies had a difference of 4 players at 20mln a year in payroll dollar differences. MLB has some very serious issues in competitiveness that are getting worse and worse each year.

    Have seen thundersnow here at least a dozen times. What was very unusual in 1983 is that it was dangerous cloud to ground with instant thunder at times and it went on for 3+ hours that night. It was'nt just in NYC. the whole I-95 corridor to Boston got it. Must have heard 40-50 thunderclaps that night. I've got a few scanned photos of that storm and of 1978 that I'll find and put up. I lived in Brooklyn back then. The lightning show in 1983 was the only time I ever experienced anything like that. Most of the time when thundersnow happened here it was only a few stray ones. A local meteorolgist said that aviation data supported 35,000+ foot cloudtops in 1983. Unheard of on the cold side of a winter blizzard.

    The storm here hit on Feb 11, 1983. I look up old maps in the link below. Weather, astronomy and cosmology are hobbies of mine along with old lionels. You need a free DJVU reader to access the maps. You can even look up the east coast grandaddy blizzard of March 13, 1888 here (30-60" snows in NY and NJ) and of course the suoerstorms of 1993 plus the superstorm of 1978 in the Ohio valley. Although the east coast blizzard of 1978 produced up to 48" in Rode Island and 20-30" in the I-95 corridor north of Baltimore, and got all the headlines that year, the Ohio valley storm was really the more intense storm.

    http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Len,

    The site where I provide regular weather forecasts is an Iowa State University sports forum and is a subscription only site. It costs about $10 per month. It would be great if you become a member even though you don't have an interest in ISU sports. And, of course I totally understand if you don't want to bother. In addition to sports, a lot of folks post off topic stuff like the Tiger Woods fiasco or anything that is of major news. I am known as Cyclogenesis on this forum. Pretty appropriate name, since it incorporates both the Cyclones of Iowa State and weather (cyclogenesis means the birth of a storm), don't you think? The site is called cyclonereport.com and forum is the confidential board. They would love to have you come on board. Here is the link:

    http://iowastate.rivals.com/forum.asp?sid=916&fid=694

    BTW, the models are tracking the storm even further west now and I expect Des Moines to be above freezing from Wednesday afternoon through much of Christmas Eve Day (Thursday). Thus, there will be quite a lot of rain or mixed junk prior to changing to snow Thursday evening. Amazingly enough, the rain could be changing from rain to snow from south to north due to cold air advection from the south as it wraps around the system. It looks like the center of low pressure will stall near the MO-IA border for about 24 hours. My new estimate for Des Moines snowfall now is only about 5 inches but this is a real bugger to forecast accurately. It is very complex.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Folks here are worried about a CAD holding in surface chill for ice and then a secondary forming in the SE and taking over circulation. Would keep us cold here. Any thoughts.

    1983 blizzard in Brooklyn:

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=55ibh3&s=6

    1996 blizzard here - 3 feet. Remains the most amazing storm I ever saw anywhere. We had this pile the length of the driveway on both sides. I felt like a bobsledder driving down it afterward. Shutdown NJ for 2 full days with banned travel in part because major roads like the Garden State Parkway and NJ Turnpike had 20 foot drifts. This is the guy now at Rutgers

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2jtsli&s=6

    I can't find the 78 photo on this laptop but the last photo on this page was sent in by me to Don Sutherland, who owns the site.

    http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1978c.html

    BTW:

    This a is "guess who" circa 1983. My at that time fiance, we are now 25 years married, later drew a moustache on the photo and I've had one ever since.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2n9z77t&s=6

    I'll create a gmail account as a second e-mail and then post it. Probab;y the best wat to keep in touch.
  • patpat Member Posts: 10,421
    You can temporarily make your email address (current or a different one if you change it) public in your profile until he sees it, and then switch it back to private if you like. That way someone has to be registered and logged in to see it and it's not ever available to the spam bots the way it would be if you posted it.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Len,

    These photos are very nostalgic for me. The blizzard of 78 in particular brings back memories. I was SO upset that I was not in eastern MA to enjoy that truly historic event. My home town (Brockton) picked up more than 4 feet on the level. Some single story homes were literally buried under incredible drifts. That storm stalled east of Cape Cod for at least a day or two and it kept dumping heavy snow to eastern MA. I believe that was the storm that went into the record books as the greatest single snowstorm since records have been kept in Boston. At the time, I had already started my business here in IA and the only evidence I had of the storm were some Boston Globe and Brockton Enterprise newspaper clippings that my brother sent.

    BTW, could that be a young Len on the last photo? What a stud ;-)!

    As far as this weekend is concerned for your area, I do think that there will be significant warming (probably to the 40s). I don't think there is enough support to develop a secondary soon enough to save you from at least a couple days of rather mild temperatures and lots of melting. But I know how fickle it can be in that area this time of year, so I am not totally convinced that my thinking is correct. You will be cooling off next week to below normal temperatures.

    Yes indeed. Communicating by a gmail account would work for me. Time to go to bed now so I can get up at 3:00 AM. I don't think I can do this 3:00AM thing (work) too much longer even though it is only 4 days a week.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Real disturbing story here about Goldman. This firm is really corrupt IMO. I have no issues with the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of the world who are immensely wealthy but brought huge productive or needed assets to the world population and benefitted mankind. Goldman and others take and give nothing. Amazing that they don't get the American hatred of the firm.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/24/business/24trading.html?ref=business

    Refineries have major issues as speculation in oil drives up prices and there's no support at the end user cnsumer/business level at all to the speculation.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/24/business/energy-environment/24refining.html?re- - - f=business

    Stocks still looking good. Merry Christmas to everyone that celebrates it.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Yes I agree with you about Goldman---and always keep them in the back of my mind when I buy a stock, as they can just kill you at any moment...Until I see a system that can stop the short seller-----like the uptick rule---and the non delivery of shares, they can rule supreme, and everyone better keep that in mind...

    Merry Christmas to all Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Merry Christmas gentlemen!

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Very disturbing indeed! Corruption, corruption, corruption.

    I also want to wish my friends here a very Merry Christmas and a healthy and happy 2010.
  • Sandman6472Sandman6472 Coral Springs, FLMember Posts: 5,784
    The Sandman :sick: :shades:

    2015 Audi A3 (wife) / 2015 Golf TSI (me) / 2019 Chevrolet Cruze Premier RS (daughter #1) / 2020 Hyundai Accent SE (daughter #2)

  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Getting a little nervous with these etf, which seem to be having some strange `creation ` activities....I think it dilutes the fund to a degree when that happens as the replacement corporate bonds have appreciated so much from their lows..Of course the higher quality funds are at the mercy of rising interest rates, which may or may not happen.. I suspect that rates will increase quicker than people think.....Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Just hoping you guys listened to me and bought Ford before the big run up.

    Ford = F
    F = Fortune

    I do believe there is still more upside. Buy more shares at the next significant dip, assuming there is one.

    And... once again... if you haven't already taken advantage of this rare opportunity to buy Citigroup at this ridiculous low share price, then you should do so now.

    Recently made a ton on AMD and ARMH.

    If you are willing to take on some risk, buy a whole bunch of ONP... do it now before it's too late, and you will possibly make a fortune on this company from China.

    Oh... I'm still strongly invested in Apple and Google.

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    Yep, you were right about energy prices also and I was dead wrong. :blush:

    Your really good!

    Regards,
    OW
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Yep, you were right about energy prices also and I was dead wrong.

    Your really good!


    Thanks, but I've blundered a few, too. I'll come right out and tell you my biggest recent mistake. It was to invest in the major video game companies in the months prior to Christmas and prior to a host of new game releases. Historically this is often a good time to invest. It should have been a slam dunk. No way, not this time. I messed up. Instead I saw a lot of bleeding, so I pulled my money out before it got even worse... y'know, cut my losses. I had to lick my chops for a while on that one.

    Some of my other winners... LG Display Co. (LPL) I'm up 26%, American Tower (AMT) I'm up a modest 11%, Microsoft (MSFT) I'm up 17%... and a host of others, some up huge and others only 5%, but in only a matter of weeks in some cases. I mentioned ARMH and it's up around 22% in about only 90 days, and I mentioned AMD, which has shown me a 62% return in about 90 days. .

    Here are some of my other pics in my portfolio... AMZN, HPQ, INTC, QCOM (Mirasol could become industry-wide), IKAN (this one is speculative), ONP (also speculative, but I think it is going to be a huge home run) and a good selection of dividend-paying major-name stocks.

    It's an interesting group I've put together, and I told everyone here that I was going to put together a selection of stocks that mostly was related to the wireless internet and cellular industries, from the supply side to the retail side. That's why I've got a cellular tower company in there, and an assortment of chip makers in there, some service providers, and a few device manufacturers in there. This whole wireless communications technology is exploding globally, and we are only part way into the explosion. Makes sense to invest in it.

    Beyond that, I am into Bank of America and Citigroup, and I certainly hope they do well... so far so good, but you never know although I have high hopes that Citi is going to give some awesome returns in the future after some bumps along the way perhaps. I really believe citi can double or triple one's investment over a period of years... not a bad opportunity if you think about it. Add to that the dividend-paying stocks I mentioned, as well as Ford, of course. That's pretty much it for now, although I did have a couple of other speculative stocks that went up and then came back down, so I dumped them at the break-even point. Oops, I forgot... I also bought BP earlier in the week on a hunch that they are going to do well in foreign markets with regards to alternative energy.

    We'll see how it all goes... and if you want to discuss the stock market, I look forward to your posts! :)

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tag,

    You are the man! I am following your advice on a few of these stocks you mentioned above on today's dip in the market. I bought some ARMH, AMT, AMD, and LPL I am still quite bullish on the market and do think that the Dow will reach 11,000 in a few months. We'll see how all this turns out.

    A lot of the stocks I have accumulated the past several months have also been doing quite well. In particular PKX and AAPL have been very good to me. That PKX is a real mover and shaker. I have bought it on dips and sold it much higher a few times already in the past 5-6 months and made good money. I am out of it right now, but I am hoping for a little bearish earnings report (I think in the next couple days) so I can buy it again.

    Keep in touch.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Charlie,

    Last couple of days in the past week, I decided to "clean up" my portfolio... completely weeding out all speculative stocks at this point, and increasing good stocks that pay good dividends. In addition, I removed ONP and a China fund I was invested in... I am concerned about the Chinese economy (possible bubble?), and since I admittedly do not feel that I know enough about the economic situation in China I have decided to walk away from that table altogether for now. If there should be any genuine major problems with the Chinese economy, I think it will rattle all of us... and that would be unfortunate.

    Other than that... I have taken my profits on AMD... not to suggest that it isn't a great investment, but I have done so well on that stock it is time to reap the reward. Also, I expect that I will buy more of my favorites if the prices continue to dip much further and they start looking like bargains again.

    If Bank of America, Citigroup, and Ford share prices take a big hit, I will buy more.

    IMO, Citigroup is a stock that can quite easily double or triple within several short years or sooner, and that is hard to turn down.

    After MLK Day is over and the markets re-open, this week could be an interesting one. Get ready for the ride.

    Sure hope we hear from Len soon. I miss our buddy when he is absent for so long.

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    I think your onto something. The contrarian view is US will grow faster than China (which is in bubble-growth mode). Here is an interesting piece that you might enjoy.

    2010’s Contrarian Trade: Buy US, Sell China

    Anyway, Ford was the premier marque at the Detroit Auto show with their new MyFord interface tech and the new Mustang 5.0. Here's a vid that orders LLN's Top 10. Ford will gain market share over GM just based on their non-bailout status let alone some nice metal for a change, so you are spot on at the present moment.

    The banks are a good prospect afaic as well. Thanks for the ideas...keep 'em coming.

    Top 10 Cars DAS 2010

    Regards,
    OW
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