The Stock Market and Investing

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  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,206
    Jose, nice to see you over here and it is great to get your perspective on these various subjects. Hopefully you can teach us a thing or two because we could certainly use the help !! :)

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • jlbljlbl Member Posts: 1,333
    Thank you all for your kind words. Sure I'll come, I may need good advise. I'd just put some money in a bunch of stocks thinking the market was only being to go up… just to see my stuff going down by a nice 2.5 points in two days. :mad: I'm just patiently sitting and waiting now, what more can I do?

    Regards,
    Jose
  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,206
    Jose, my stocks always go up. Maybe you should just send all your money over to me and let me handle it.... :)

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I am really getting excited about the stock market action the past several days (actually since last week). It really appears to me that we have either already seen the low of this significant correction or we are very close to the low. I love the market action yesterday and today. I truly believe that the debt crisis in a few European nations was just an excuse to allow our stock market to complete its correction.

    Tag, are you starting to buy like a "maniac" yet? I have been nibbling at some stocks the past couple weeks. I think I am going to do some serious buying starting tomorrow. I strongly believe that our economy will continue to slowly improve.

    What do you good gentlemen think? Am I way off base on my thinking?
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,448
    I hope those weren't connected to Greece...

    But now Merkel is saying Germany will shovel some money into the mess (as it apparently doesn't give enough to the EU as it is), so maybe that will correct that little downturn. The NA markets seem to have reacted positively.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    Tag, are you starting to buy like a "maniac" yet? I have been nibbling at some stocks the past couple weeks. I think I am going to do some serious buying starting tomorrow. I strongly believe that our economy will continue to slowly improve.

    Charlie, I must admit in all honesty that for the first time in a long while, I have lost my desire to invest in the market and I can't seem to get my finger on the pulse.

    The reason for this is that I am overly suspicious that there will be yet more of the same kind of political interference that I have witnessed recently, and I am not so sure that the worst is actually over. Perhaps it is, but I am not all that sure.

    Afterall, I don't think any of us know for sure what Obama is going to do next. I am not suggesting that I don't like him... but I am suggesting that his actions and speeches might send another jolt through the markets. I also think he is going to raise taxes before too long, and I believe it is quite possible that interest rates may be going up in the near future. On top of that, consider the Iran nuclear issue... at some point it could become a very serious international crisis... and the China syndrome, as well as the financial mess in other parts of the world, on top of our own out-of-control deficit... well, let me just say that I'm having a hard time feeling a certain level of stability that I would to feel in order to put a lot of money into the stock market at this very moment.

    I keep thinking that there is a snake in the grass, and on any given day, we are suddenly going to get some more messed up news that is going to send more shockwaves through the market. I guess I just don't trust it enough right now.

    Maybe soon, but not now. I am quite comfortable sitting with cash on the sidelines for now.

    Good luck with those stocks you are nibbling at.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Charlie, I must admit in all honesty that for the first time in a long while, I have lost my desire to invest in the market and I can't seem to get my finger on the pulse.

    The reason for this is that I am overly suspicious that there will be yet more of the same kind of political interference that I have witnessed recently, and I am not so sure that the worst is actually over. Perhaps it is, but I am not all that sure.


    What a smart guy you are! Based on the market action this morning, sitting on the sideline is exactly what you should be doing. Man this market has been schizo lately. It is like the weather in some parts of the nation.... "If you don't like it, just wait an hour or two". I was very optimistic about the market the past few days, but this morning it looks like "dog poop" (at least so far), But just wait a few hours :D .
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    I hear ya, brother!

    Conventional wisdom might tell us we are experiencing another dip to buy some more stocks this morning... but something looks different to me and I can't do it.

    Like you say, in a few hours it could be totally different. One thing that concerns me is just how fragile any rally actually is. It is too easy for the market to fall apart, IMO.

    As a result of being out of the market, I will miss the big gains I was hoping for... unless I can see the door open at the right time. That's the risk of being in an all cash position.

    Let's see how the week ends.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2010
    As a result of being out of the market, I will miss the big gains I was hoping for... unless I can see the door open at the right time. That's the risk of being in an all cash position.

    Knowing how you operate, you will not miss the move up (whenever we get the big move up). You are playing it smart. It is much better to be safe than sorry.

    BTW, "the wait a few hours" worked. There has been a substantial rally from the lows and at one point the S & P was fairly close to flat for the day. But the day is from from over. Anything is possible in this schizo market. In fact all markets have been extremely unpredictable lately. They make zero sense. By "all markets" I am talking about commodities and financials.
  • jlbljlbl Member Posts: 1,333
    edited February 2010
    Hi Dan, I too try to keep my male stockings as up as possible :):):)

    As for my market stocks, they are going up and down. This is like watching Duck Soup Cabinet, or taking a Scottish shower. Everyone has to say a word, no one says anything worthy. In particular the gurus of the most important financial newspapers, which IMHO are in the same level of worship and flattery in favor of short-time speculators and risky investors as they were before the crisis. This financial behavior needs some sort of regulation, I believe, because it is not working for the economy but for the chaos.

    Regards,
    Jose
  • jlbljlbl Member Posts: 1,333
    edited February 2010
    No, they are not.

    But Germany has stopped growing in last trimester, as it has EU economy overall. Only France has grown just a bit. Another market convulsion.

    Not only Germany (indeed the most sounded money contributor to the UE) and France have promised to help Greece if necessary, also other Countries as Spain have. By the way, the UK has the same public debt as Spain, but the UK has the City and the gurus on its side, fortunately for them.

    In truth I believe no EU Country is in real trouble of not paying back its public debts. This continued seizure it's only a speculative storm to make big money attacking the Euro through the weakest or less defended Eurozone Countries. All this is not helping the economy (I'm thinking in the population and industries, not in the markets) in anyway.

    Regards,
    Jose
  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,206
    Yes, we might as well take our money to Las Vegas or Monte Carlo !!

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited February 2010
    Charlie, what about my weather pattern? When's this thing going to change. Picked up another 18-20" with the past storm and already looking like another 10-12" storm coming in later Monday. It's incredible how different NYC, all of 40-45 miles away is from here. We must have 2.5-3X their snow for the season at about 70". Here's what it's like here and I can't imagine another foot on top of this.Everyone's landscape is buried as it is. My old buddy, Flint350 down in Maryland is probably in even worse shape.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2wq7s4z&s=6
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Hi Len! This has been the weirdest winter I have ever witnessed. There have been mind boggling statistics all over the nation. I do not see an end to the snowy pattern for you any time soon. Yes you will get another snow storm late Monday and Monday night. That one should dump about 8-10 inches in your area. This is the same system that will deposit a fresh 3-5 inches here in Des Moines this weekend. Speaking of Des Moines, we have had a real tough winter here. We have had 53 inches so far and we are on the way to breaking the all time record of 72 inches for the winter. It has also been quite cold here with lots of sub zero mornings and some afternoons on either side of zero with wicked wind chills. You would not believe the drifts out in the open country here in central through northwest IA. BTW, here in Des Moines we are now at 64 consecutive days with at least 5 inches of now on the ground. he old record was 55. The snow depth this morning stood at 14 inches. In fact, it has been a totally different world here when compared to places east of the Mississippi River when it comes to cold and snow. Chicago for example, is very close to normal temperatures since December 1 and they have only picked up perhaps 25-30 inches of snow (1 foot of it earlier this week) . Incidentally, Chicago will get little or no snow this weekend with this next system.

    As snowy as it has been in your area, it has not been all that cold. New York is averaging only about 1 degree below normal since Dec. 1. I'm sure that you are not much different than that with respect to normal. The coldest anomalies have been here in a portion of IA and especially the southern Midwest and deep into the heart of Dixie. This is rather typical with the incredibly negative AO (Arctic Oscillation). Even though Canada is quite warm (with respect to normal) with this pattern, these air masses are shoved far to the south without too much modification and are well below normal for the southern U.S. Speaking of Dixie, how about the amazing heavy snow today over a large portion of MS, AL, GA, and SC? It snowed all the way down to northern FL. I think that Charleston, SC will have several inches of accumulation tonight. Did you see how much snow fell in the Dallas area yesterday and last night? Yes, it was 1 foot.

    Anyhow, for the rest of this month I expect your temperatures to average only a bit below normal while you will be getting additional snow events from time to time.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Well right now here in Charleston S C we are experiencing a blizzard---or at least what would appear as a blizzard with the city street backlighting :) and at least a couple of inches on the ground......Of course the city is quiet as a mouse, with just an occasional couple of kids going home--laughing all the way--- Can`t imagine fifty inches, and the last time I experienced around twenty four inches it took five day just to get to the pavement from the drive, so I was surprised at how quickly Washington came back to life....Take care Tony
  • cdnpinheadcdnpinhead Forest Lakes, AZMember Posts: 5,062
    Well right now here in Charleston S C we are experiencing a blizzard---or at least what would appear as a blizzard with the city street backlighting. . .

    Charleston is beautiful at the worst of times, and I can only imagine how fine it would be to see it (& walk around) in a snowstorm. I enjoy winter and "bad" weather -- love driving around after a fresh snow.
    '08 Acura TSX, '17 Subaru Forester
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Gosh, Tony... I must be spoiled rotten.

    Here is the actual link to our weather forecast here in Malibu, California...

    link title

    As you can see, we will enjoy 72 degrees tomorrow, 74 degrees on Sunday, and 73 degrees on Monday.

    :shades:

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    edited February 2010
    Olympics Opening was fun, if a bit leisurely.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Yeah we're gonna get about 65-66 degrees way up north in Santa Cruz area. The seas are up though, just in time for big wave surfing at Mavericks.

    You got snow, we got white sharks. No place is perfect. :P
  • kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 190,802
    Leisurely? As in the description of a 240D 0-60 time? ;)

    I prefer... mind-numbingly boring... and.. I'm a big Olympic Games fan...

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  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,448
    Errors and problems around every corner...BC has a $6BN investment in these games...probably not going to go down as a sound use of money.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,448
    Maybe the Euro is just overvalued. It's not attached to the same high debt baggage as the greenback, but at the same time the Eurozone does have some over-expansion issues, and problems with future demographics as well. The whole scheme being dependent upon German consumption patterns isn't a positive sign.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    The Olympics should subcontract to let the NFL do it and just take 15% off the top. It'll be a tacky show, but it'll work and it'll look good. :P
  • jlbljlbl Member Posts: 1,333
    I give all my fan to Lindsey Vonn. She has determination, speed and a marvel of technique. Pity this is not the appropriate place to post a couple of pictures of her when racing down (though not that one wearing a red bikini :) ).

    Regards,
    Jose
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    l lived in the Bay Area for over thirty years, so I know Santa Cruz & the rest of the area very well. My daughter surfed plenty of waves there, and is enjoying the warmer waters of SoCal. My son is still a novice @ surfing, but loves it, too.

    Mavericks is a whole different dimension... Perfect for Half Moon Bay... LOL. ;)

    I fly Southwest up to the Bay Area often for business... It's only a 55-minute flight... so I am lucky to get the best of both worlds. The Bay Area is gorgeous & I love the great food. There is a lifetime of adventure in Malibu & SoCal, so I am really enjoying it.

    As you said, no place is perfect, and I think being happy wherever life takes us, or wherever we take life, is an important key.

    TM
  • jlbljlbl Member Posts: 1,333
    edited February 2010
    I too think we are oversized (in particular because of a bunch of members which belong to the EU only to take advantage of it whilst putting poles in the wheels, IMO); and I also believe the Euro is overvalued. The former keeps preventing to take right politic decisions and the latter is not helping the economy in anyway, in particular in recent times.

    But the crisis has been provoked by speculators trying to get big money by making blood from a Country. Thus, I support some sort of intervention coming from other EU Eurozone members. It should be taken into account that Eurozone members have no currency of their own to be devaluated to try to solve the current problem.

    On the other hand, I do think EU and in particular its Eurozone is not at all a bad thing in itself. In a federal or confederal group, some States (or Länder, or whatever) will always be economically weaker than others. And, there is inside the Eurozone the lovely possibility of going from Greece to Germany or to Portugal without necessity of changing currency or being stopped at a number of borders and tolls. This is not gratuit in Europe, a region which has been the battlefield of quite a number of wars. I think US citizens would not love to have barriers within the USA, you can imagine. In brief, there is not only economy but also politics to help having a better life.

    Demographics is a more difficult task to solve. There is no direct possibility of having people making more babies if they do not want—after all since Bismarck we are socially oriented but not Big Brother Countries. (I can do my effort notwithstanding, though I am becoming too old now, I'm afraid; may be all I can do is telling my daughter and his man to have a baby as soon as possible, but they keep saying back that it is not too late for them, and that I had my only daughter when I was thirty-year-old :confuse: :blush: .)

    My apologies for this long post. Here the snow is also falling down even on the beach. Even Majorca in the Balearic Islands is covered in snow. Too bad wether for going to ski; too good one for writing, reading and hearing to music.

    Regards,
    Jose
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,448
    edited February 2010
    I can support the EU as an economic ideal, but not as a legal or societal ideal. I see it as really stealing sovereignty and identity from members, in exchange for short term profit. I think it has been mismanaged by a group of megalomaniacs and could easily be turned into a kind of "EUSSR" where the souless EU drones in Brussels have authority over member states. There is already a stupid situation where the EU court prohibits criticism of the EU itself. Insanity. I don't think this ideal is going to prevent future conflict in Europe...in fact...I think it is inevitable.

    The Euro does need some correction, overvaluing a currency does not improve anything in the long run. What do you think it should be valued at relative to the Dollar or Pound? The British people I know were throwing a fit when the Euro and Pound were getting close.

    Here, not terribly far from the Olympics, it is still unusually warm and kind of damp. Not good for the big Canadian investment. I'll trade you some rain for some snow ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Big rogue wave smashed up everything (and some people too) up at Mavericks yesterday. :sick:

    Yeah, people like to bash California and I always say "Fine, don't come here". :P I'll just keep the good stuff for myself!

    I think I'm gonna blow a couple hundred bucks on maybe 100 shares of Sprint. I'm just a sucker for it. Maybe it'll move someday. It can't get THAT much lower without evaporating, and I don't think it will do that.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    You have been right on your calls, and by keeping your funds liquid, may be in a position to make some good gains coming up....In fact , in my opinion, the market had such a strong straight up rebound, either we would have a monster correction, or a long sideways consolidation no matter what.....If by chance things deteriorate more than usual it may offer a good chance for you to make the gains you are hoping for...
    I personally was very hopeful Obama would have stressed the economy early on, and am disappointed he did not...and I was very hopeful things would change in Washington----with his leadership....It doesn`t appear that anything has changed, and we may be inundated with negative things right up until the election, therefore the market may not be as robust as I previously thought....A shame for us all, but the trading opportunities are likely to be there...Good luck to you Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    Hey there, Tony!
    I agree that many of us were hopeful for some better policies and politics out of Washington. As I recall, the Obama campaign was all about change... yet with a majority Congress that could have rubber-stamped nearly any legislation written by only half a brain, we really didn't see Obama pull it off. What greatness has happened so far?

    I will have to say, however, that I genuinely liked the "cash-for-clunkers" program. I thought it was a great idea, and I would go so far as to suggest that it should be repeated annually from now on... right alongside the Lexus "December to Remember"... LOL. ;)

    Unfortunately, I expect taxes to go up. I hate the thought that the United States of America should punish success. It is just plain stupid and counter-productive. The AMT is a stealth tax that is out of control and pray that it gets the "fix" that it is supposed to get... it would be better if it was eliminated altogether... but don't hold your breath for that.

    Thank you for the reinforced perspective about holding cash. I certainly hope it is the right thing to do right now, as I would hate to miss a huge rally. But, I am not about to gamble. I typically invest with confidence, not as a gamble, and if I were to invest right now, it would be more like gambling, IMO. So, I wait on the sidelines with cash.

    I'm going to guess that this upcoming week will be interesting again.

    You take care... always great to read your posts and know that you are hanging around here now and then with the rest of us. :)

    Lately, I've preferred to post here than the LL. :blush:

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tony,

    I have already told you quite a while ago that you are a wonderful human being because you care about others. As far as Obama is concerned, it sure would have been great if he went on the attack and change all the evil that is surrounding Washington. But those things will take years to fix if they ever get fixed at all. I really think that the President also truly cares about others just as you do, but he can only do so much. I do strongly believe that the measures that he and some of the leaders in his administration took a year or so ago have avoided a world-wide economic catastrophe. The optimist in me says that the economy will be very gradually improving going forward. The stock market will be noticing this I am of the opinion that we have either seen the low of the correction or are very close to it. And who knows? Perhaps Obama will get rid of some of the evil in DC as well.

    Anyway, enough on politics. I bet the amazing snow that you got on Friday night has all melted, right?
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I typically invest with confidence, not as a gamble, and if I were to invest right now, it would be more like gambling, IMO. So, I wait on the sidelines with cash.

    LOL! Tag, if you think playing the stock market is gambling these days, you ought to try trading commodities. That will put things into perspective.

    Anyway, as I told you on an earlier post, I am not betting the farm in my stocks portfolio the past few weeks. I am still rather optimistic that we will see a bull market resuming in the not too distant future.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    LOL! Tag, if you think playing the stock market is gambling these days, you ought to try trading commodities. That will put things into perspective.

    Ha... I imagine so. But as our top-ranking meteorologist here, I think your expertise gives you an important advantage when it comes to commodities trading... enough so to reduce the gamble.

    Anyway, as I told you on an earlier post, I am not betting the farm in my stocks portfolio the past few weeks. I am still rather optimistic that we will see a bull market resuming in the not too distant future.

    Sounds right to me.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2010
    Ha... I imagine so. But as our top-ranking meteorologist here, I think your expertise gives you an important advantage when it comes to commodities trading... enough so to reduce the gamble.

    You obviously know enough about commodity trading to realize that weather plays a very important role for certain commodities (e.g. soybeans, corn, OJ, natural gas, etc.) at certain times of the year. Yes, it definitely reduces the gamble, but not as much as it did a few years ago. The reason that weather is not as influential as it use to be is due to the fact that commodities are now more than ever before tied to the world economic factors, Chinese demand, etc. But weather is still the most important factor. For example, the amount of natural gas to be used this winter season is obviously determined by temperatures especially in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. But if the market fears an economic collapse, there will be a sell-off even if the forecast is for frigid temperatures.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    Waiting on the sidelines should be a spot-on call right about now. In the following article, I tend to agree with the author that a few asset bubbles have formed at least for the short run.

    If he is close to his forecast, there might be a better buying opportunity pretty soon...

    4 New Asset Bubbles

    Take care!

    Regards,
    OW
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    You are so right about the snow, and to have an up beat attitude full of hope....It is contagious and helps keep thing in perspective for us all :)

    I think we all care about one another, and that has kept me `on board` all these years...and after this last year of the `stock market` I just hope we can adjust as quickly as the economy adjusts...

    On a side not I just watched the building of the Bugatti ....My Lord ... Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    Waiting on the sidelines should be a spot-on call right about now. In the following article, I tend to agree with the author that a few asset bubbles have formed at least for the short run.

    If he is close to his forecast, there might be a better buying opportunity pretty soon...


    That perpsective is way too extreme for me. I see some of the reasoning, but it goes too far, IMO. I just don't see that kind of huge selloff in the cards. Think about it... the S&P isn't really any better today than it's been in about 12 years. I don't see that as a bubble given its lack of any real gain. If it was a big bubble, it would be grossly beyond where is was a dozen years ago. So, I just can't agree that we are in for a decline of 29% for the index.

    Oil, IMO, operates in a bubble to some extent nearly by default. That's why I was right about oil prices last year and Len was wrong. That's not to say that I don't see them easing... because I already predicted that months ago.

    Gold is a whole different animal that has too much to do with sentiment and not enough to do with fundamentals. Since we are off the gold standard, the value of the dollar and of gold are not properly linked... so it's anybody's guess as far as I'm concerned. Gold trader's can gamble with gold if they want to, but I never touch the stuff. I played around with silver many years ago when the Hunt brothers were artificially inflating the price of silver... I made some money, but I was lucky on that one... the whole thing was yet another market scam, and many others got brutally taken to the cleaners.

    The author's whole perspective on treasuries is overblown, IMO. Of course, interest rates are going to go up soon, and all instruments that have lower rates will be worth less... that's normal... but the interest rates are not going to soar in any huge way, as he suggests, because the economy could never handle it. The economy requires low rates, and will so for quite a while, IMO.

    Anyway, I've already stated that I believe there are reasons to stay in cash, and I am doing so, but I certainly don't expect the floor to drop out to the extent that the author is suggesting. I think we have better fundamentals than he is giving credit for. That said, I can't say with certainty that we have reached the bottom yet... and that's why I wait... patiently. :)

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    I flew down here to Miami from Charleston, so I thought I would report on what I saw......The plane flew just off the coast , and every inlet was just packed with people taking the boats out....It reminded me of a bee hive, the coming and goings...These were large yachts mostly, so I would conclude the recovery is well under way..In fact one inlet (probably Jupiter) looked like they could use a `traffic cop` there were so many boats.....I looked very closely, and the yachts were large as I said...

    The airport was very busy both in Charleston and Miami, with what I would call regularly heavy auto traffic for Sunday....The grocery store was packed , which is usual..

    I would guess the price of fuel will be perking up----no matter the election---so take with a `grain of salt` any negative reporting.....I think we all know that both commercial and retail housing is still very deep in the` hole`, so anything in that department would be positive.....

    Tony
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    edited February 2010
    I made a Lowe's run today and I was a bit surprised at the number of people (I usually don't shop the big box stores on the weekends though). And there was a new commercial building (50,000 sq. ft?) being built on a nearby pad.

    The most crowded spot was the new branch library we popped in to. It was packed. Lots of laptops and free wifi.

    Sure are a lot of houses for sale here though. And I'm getting bids to paint my house, and all the painters laid their crews off for the winter. Bids are coming in lower than I expected too.

    I'm curious to see where the Euro is going to go with the Greek mess and the EU's reluctance to involve the IMF. Lots lower? You sort of want to see the dollar go up, but that hurts exports.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,448
    I want to see the Euro go lower, at least another 10% from here, and more if possible. It is overvalued, and the megalomaniacs who run the EU need a reality check.

    A low dollar isn't a good thing, IMO.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    Hah, you just want to save a few hundred on your next MB rental over the pond. :D

    The € is around $1.36 today; 10% gets it close to $1.22. That's probably ok, that's about where it was initally pegged. I guess the bigger concern is the rate falling too fast.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,448
    Yep, I am thinking of future holidays among other things ;)

    I don't see a legit reason for the Euro to be really high, myself. IMO the EU has burgeoning problems that are as bad as the issues in the US. More of these will come to light as time goes on. It is not a creation free from unsustainable debt.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    I would guess the price of fuel will be perking up----no matter the election---so take with a `grain of salt` any negative reporting.....I think we all know that both commercial and retail housing is still very deep in the` hole`, so anything in that department would be positive.....

    The remaining negative aspects of the economy aren't something you will see in the airports and yacht harbors.

    The millions upon millions of unemployed aren't there. You can't see the exploding deficit there, which is like a cancer attacking the patient from the inside. We could also be flirting with yet another crisis... a credit crisis... and you won't see that in your travels yet either. In addition, the woes of Europe may not be fully realized yet. The global economy isn't stable by any means, and there are still some lingering concerns about China's economy.

    Also, Iran's insane nuclear ambitions are getting dangerously close to the point of confrontation. Iran may likely have to be stopped by military means (by either the United States or Israel)... which could create a global crisis of its own, or it is possible that Iran will nuke Israel, which will also cause a global crisis. On top of that, any major military action in Iran and the surrounding area could cause an energy crisis. Hopefully, none of that will happpen, but the deficit and credit situations are definitely looming more than ever, and the housing situation is still in the basement.

    The dollar's valuation is a bit of a question as is the future of interest rates. I personally don't see rates climbing all too much too fast, but it is another variable nonetheless.

    In addition, Obama is still toying around with health care reform... which could be a good thing if it is a good program, but it still can rattle the nerves of investors just the same. Also, investors don't fully know what Obama might do regarding the bank regulations that he has threatened. And, while many of us like Obama, he remains a wildcard to be reckoned with... and that can create investment jitters.

    I do see a lot of reasons to be positive, without a doubt, but the bottom line for me is whether or not I believe that we are in a stable enough environment to start a new stock market investment strategy. Given all the current risks, I am still staying on the sidelines. If I do finally decide to put my feet back in the market anytime soon, it will be very slooooowly and carefully... perhaps with a small selection of quality stocks that pay dividends, for example.

    Good luck to you!! Glad you are enjoying life!! :)

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    edited February 2010
    Rates should remain low and consumer spending should be a drag in the short to medium term until this improves:

    image

    Many economists still argue that the Great Recession was just like all the others, except a bit bigger.

    Here's why they're wrong.

    Check out the number of people unemployed more than 26 weeks (expressed above as a percentage of the population).

    Even if the recovery continues and the number of the long-term unemployed finally stops rising, it will likely take a decade or more for this group to shrink to normal levels.


    And there is the underlying tone that will set the stock market tempo. The government tweaking will likely keep volatility on the high side.

    Regards,
    OW
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Hi Tag

    As usual you have a very fine perspective that is backed up with a lot of good detail, and I agree that all of your points are worth considering from an investment perspective..If anything like a nuclear bomb were to go off, we could see a massive selloff, with a lot of follow through...Still, my observations from yesterday are a far cry from last year....I hate for anyone to be without work and the means to provide for themselves or a family....but there are massive amounts of people who are busy and the yachts that I saw are indicative that the wealthy are starting to re-spend their money....All a good sign....

    As for myself I`m not spending anything more than the ticket as I already have spent the money for the place here in Miami...It is just ridiculous not to use it, and as my wife is involved with other responsibilities, I just came on down, mostly to exercise :) which I hate to do in the winter when I am cold all the time....You on the other hand live in a wonderful climate so you have no excuses :) Later Tony
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited February 2010
    "I'm curious to see where the Euro is going to go with the Greek mess and the EU's reluctance to involve the IMF. Lots lower? You sort of want to see the dollar go up, but that hurts exports." (Steve, I don't know why I cannot show your quote in bold type or italics. My computer messes it up.)

    I am all for the stronger dollar up to a point. I love it when the doom and gloom boys are dead wrong. I remember about a year ago and even during the summer of 2009, these dudes were saying that the dollar would got to zero, the gold was going to reach $3,000-4,000 and the stock market would make news lows down to at least 5,000 on the Dow. Meanwhile, I started to get optimistic about the economy right around this time last year. That is when I started to buy some stocks.

    Incidentally, I bought Lows stock a couple months ago.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    Hi tony,
    I must agree that it is a good sign to see that "life goes on as usual" in a number of areas where it didn't before... but it really doesn't matter to those that have lost so much, or to the future generations who will be cheated because our government will have built up a monster deficit.

    You are right that Malilbu's great climate means I have no excuse to not exercise often, but lately, I have found myself enjoying many new and terrific places to eat, and it is starting to show in the old waistline... :blush: Thanks for the reminder... I had better put aside more time to run, or even take nice walks, along the beach. ;)

    Take care,

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    there won't be any nukes going off. since even the craziest people do not commit collective instant national suicide. Even the Nazis knew enough not to use nerve gas, for instance.

    The actual bad thing that will happen should Iran go nuclear is a regional arms race, therefore making that entire region even more dangerous and unpredictable than before.

    Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear tech---they do not have the weapons...only the US possesses these "bunker busters".

    And we will not attack Iran.

    As usual, the stock market is more vulnerable to the unknown than the known.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    edited February 2010
    there won't be any nukes going off.

    Hopefully not... but there is a significant element in the Mideast that is hell-bent on the destruction of Israel, and their hatred runs very deep... deep into the leadership of Iran, amongst others.

    Remember all those scud missiles that were fired into Israel from Iraq? And... I think from Egypt years before.

    I am of the opinion that Iran's nuclear ambitions should be stopped, or there could be serious global consequences.

    Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear tech---they do not have the weapons...

    That may or may not be true, but it can certainly "be arranged", in case it is politically better for us to not be the bad cop...

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Attacking Iran would be an act of sheer lunacy----so no doubt someone will do it.
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