The Stock Market and Investing

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  • cdnpinheadcdnpinhead Forest Lakes, AZMember Posts: 5,068
    We just seem to be drilling holes in the lifeboat in order to get even with the other passengers.

    Excellent phrase! I'll attribute it properly when I use it, which I guarantee you I will.

    The rest of the post was worthy as well.
    '08 Acura TSX, '17 Subaru Forester
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Well, if business is now muscling into politics in a big way, we would expect politics to muscle into business----push and push back----and that's what isn't good about the entire way things are evolving in America. This is quite a radical departure from the norm of 20-30 years ago.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Well I`m with you, although I don`t care for market that exaggerate the moves as we now have, either up or down...I think it is the short selling without the up tick rule..and not delivering borrowed shares .I was told quite a long time ago that the big houses were not going to re program their computers etc . and that has proven true--so far--This has been a run away market on the upside for a long period of time, so here is the chance to redeploy un deployed funds.....Now the big question is `where`...
    Haiti is such a tragedy, and my heart goes out to all those poor people, as does yours.....A brighter day is coming Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    ...my heart goes out to all those poor people, as does yours.....A brighter day is coming

    Tony... Recent posts have illuminated just how you, Charlie, and OW, as well as our hosts Steve and Joe (Mr. Shiftright, a fellow Californian!) are a terrific bunch of kind-hearted human beings... and I am glad to know you guys here on this website. And, I certainly include others that haven't necessarily posted recently, but are also damned good guys. Our politics might differ here or there, but we are united by the greater priorities of life.

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    TM,

    You are at the head of the class, afaic. Thanks for all of your input. :shades:

    Regards,
    OW
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    I`l second that :)
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I'll third that!
  • Karen_SKaren_S Member Posts: 5,092
    I'll 4th it and buy the next round! :blush:
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Awww... c'mon guys... that's way too nice... I don't think I can handle it. :blush: ;)

    Getting back to business... anyone here trust what happened today? Are we already done with the correction? Or will Obama's State of the Union speech throw a wrench in the gears?

    Very tricky... What's next?

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    I'm seein' a couple more bubbles bursting in my crystal ball.....I'm thinkin' Gold is going to take a dump. As for stocks, as a rookie I see most of the S&P as overvalued and headed for further correction. Today strikes me as hot air pumped in from unwarranted optimism. Treasury bills suck now, too. :(

    But then, remember, I'm not a gambler!
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Today strikes me as hot air pumped in from unwarranted optimism.

    Could very well be just that. It makes little sense to me as I witness major investors selling last week like a tidal wave with supposedly legitimate reasons, and now we suddenly see investors buying this week... it's too bipolar and schizophrenic right now. I like the market a whole lot more when there is at least a reasonable majority of investors that are on the same page, as there had been up until just recently.

    I personally need to wait longer to re-enter this market... I want to hear the President's State of the Union speech... now that the market is seriously polluted with (and affected by) political interference.

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Yeah, it seems that stock can only be profitable from either dividends or capital gains, and these two of course are opposites----you get one or the other. So you look at how overvalued many stocks are, and you calculate inflation---how can you possibly justify investing in them? They'd have to rack up...what 8-10% a year? In this climate?

    Maybe I'm just undereducated, but I just don't see it.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tag, I have a gut feeling that we are now close to the bottom of this correction. I like the market action/behavior today. I'm hoping that Obama "knocks 'em dead" tomorrow night. But you have every right to be skeptical right now with all the political BS around.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Yeah, it seems that stock can only be profitable from either dividends or capital gains, and these two of course are opposites----you get one or the other. So you look at how overvalued many stocks are, and you calculate inflation---how can you possibly justify investing in them?

    Mr. Shiftright, I am certainly not a stock market expert, but are you sure about this? Why can't some stocks be profitable on both sides (dividends and appreciation)? Why can't one justify investing in stocks? Mr. Tagman, for one will tell you that he made a small fortune in stocks the past year by investing in them. The number one rule in trading, be it commodities or stocks
    is buying low and selling high, or in other words, buying corrections and selling rallies. The tough part is obviously timing.

    Maybe, I misunderstand what you are saying.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    I am riveted to the "Liquid Gold" trend. Me thinks the price will stay in the current $75 - $80 range for at least the next quarter. That is good for stocks.

    Also, looking at the upcoming AIG hearings, Obama's political prdicament, grid-lock in Congress, this could spell "mine field" for stocks going forward in the short run.

    Apple is the star at the moment and the tablet will drive the price up even more, afaic. Hard to invest @ $200 - $209.

    Regards,
    OW
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    APPL
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,457
    I should buy some Raytheon to go with it.

    RTN AAPL
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Let's try this again since the italicized portion was all messed up. The time expired and I could not edit it.

    Yeah, it seems that stock can only be profitable from either dividends or capital gains, and these two of course are opposites----you get one or the other. So you look at how overvalued many stocks are, and you calculate inflation---how can you possibly justify investing in them?

    Mr. Shiftright, I am certainly not a stock market expert, but are you sure about this? Why can't some stocks be profitable on both sides (dividends and appreciation)? Why can't one justify investing in stocks? Mr. Tagman, for one will tell you that he made a small fortune in stocks the past year by investing in them. The number one rule in trading, be it commodities or stocks is buying low and selling high, or in other words, buying corrections and selling rallies. The tough part is obviously timing.

    Maybe, I misunderstand what you are saying.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Apple is the star at the moment and the tablet will drive the price up even more, afaic. Hard to invest $200 - $209.

    "An Apple a year keeps the doctor in the rear" (as in away) ;) . So, buy more Apple stock.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    Well I was referring to the S&P 500, you know, indexing and basically conservative investing. My point was that these are so overvalued that they couldn't possibly generate the amount of profit necessary to cancel out the negative aspects of being overvalued.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Is that the sound of some air leaking out of the market?

    Look at what happened today... A false rally!

    One would have expected Apple to have done much better than it did, given its reported financial data... although they did manage to change their accounting method which pumps up their numbers a little more than the previous method... still though, most impressive because of the substantial increases at the top, not just the bottom.

    So, now what? At this point, I am even more glad I got out near the top of the market. If these false rallies continue, then it could be smart to "sell at the rallies", instead of "buy at the dips"... at least for a while. And, then after the dust settles, it might make sense to re-enter the market in increments.

    Just some food for thought.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    All this talk about Apple... it is understandable... but personally, in some ways I am more impressed with Ford than Apple...

    Ford could quite possible be the first stock I buy again... Although the entire landscape might change at any time, given the President's recent assault.

    But, I do have my eye on Apple, of course, and I still think Citigroup will be a good investment eventually... but only after the President finishes talking smack about the banks, and after he makes it known how he intends to unjustly punish them.

    TM
  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,208
    This would certainly be a good time for len to check in.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    A major correction would be a good thing, IMO. And, I'm hoping we have one.

    For one thing, it could provide a bottom in the market from which to move forward, and could end much of the second-guessing. It could give us the opportunity to make some solid gains, or even some small fortunes by providing yet another opportunity to snap up some genuine bargains. After all, how many here would love to have a second crack at the stock market in 2009? I know I would.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Is that the sound of some air leaking out of the market?

    Look at what happened today... A false rally!


    Tag, the action yesterday certainly threw me a curveball. The S & P was up about 5 points when I had to go and do some errands. I was surprised to find out later that it failed before the close. You might get the major correction that you want the way things are looking. But then again, it is rare that the market does what a lot of people think it's going to do.

    On a sort of related note, I was watching the hearings this morning with Geitner and Paulson being questioned. Unless these two are total frauds/thieves, I am happy that that they decided to bail out AIG. Listening to these two, we would have had a total (and I mean TOTAL) economic collapse if AIG was not bailed out. The second Great Depression would be upon us.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    If you compare GDP and unemployment numbers today on a bar graph with say 2008 numbers under last administration, same time periods, it's actually improved on all counts. It's not GREAT, but it's better than it was.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tag, what do you think now? Could we be near the low on this correction after the Fed did not raise the rate? Where is Len when we need him :) ?
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    I feel like I am a `fair weather friend` as I just don`t have a clue as to the market direction...If the wind blows from the East I`m headed west and if it blows from the South I`m headed north....Standing back just a bit, it would make sense for the correction to go a bit further and have more time doing that, then taking into consideration the fall election, a firm market through the election.....

    Each day I venture into the city of Miami, I see all the high end `dream` cars...alot of them everywhere....Now I know Ford isn`t a dream car, but I have seen some of their models, and from afar they have a good look to them....I think a person with a little time horizon would do better owning F than aapl..

    No matter what, I see alot more activity , more customers in restaurants, and just generally an up beat mood.. Tony
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    No matter what, I see alot more activity , more customers in restaurants, and just generally an up beat mood..

    Tony, this is very good news. I also get this sense that the economy will continue to gradually improve and the jobless rate will ever so slowly decrease. No matter what though, if things are not going too great for some of us, all we need to do is think about the Haiti situation and whatever problems we have seem extremely minuscule.
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    No question about that......and we Americans have applied ourselves and sacrificed to provide for our families, and also opened our wallets to help others....The Hatians need a Marshal Plan to help them rebuild and eliminate the dis honest officials that have run the country is such a poor way.....I think it almost impossible for people to handle this on their own, as the police and other power sources just squash any dissenter ....Tony
  • sanjaysdcasanjaysdca Member Posts: 269
    we Americans have applied ourselves and sacrificed to provide for our families, and also opened our wallets to help others
    Hatians need a Marshal Plan to help them rebuild and eliminate the dis honest officials that have run the country is such a poor way

    Well said Tony
    But the thing is that we Americans do not know what we have and have become a nation of whiners.

    I believe we should cherish what we have and remember that Happiness is a state of mind.

    Now back to the topic
    Tag and team I have been a silient reader of this forum...so what do you guys think of

    1)CREE (a good green wave play). Does it have any more oomph left?
    2) Synaptics
    3) JOYG
    4) ASIA

    I got into these about a year ago and now I am debating to get rid of them.
    Thoughts?

    Sanjay
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Tag, what do you think now?

    Well... I think it is pretty darned clear that I was right about the market when I totally sold out recently at the highs.

    However, given this nasty market action today, it seems like a good time to start carefully buying again... so I started my re-entry into the market today. :)

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,665
    TM, your are too funny!

    Good luck!

    Regards,
    OW
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    The GDP number (for the 4th quarter) released this morning was very encouraging. On that note, I decided to buy more AAPL stock this morning even though it is not acting very well. I should be buying Ford again, but I have not done so yet.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    I think you are going to be very glad you bought Apple, but try to ease into the stocks you purchase, in order to offset the volatility.

    I believe the market is ignoring a lot of positive data & earnings reports. If the data was all bad, then you would not want to purchase stocks... But thankfully, there is sufficient justification to buy stocks, with caution.

    IMO, the biggest problems are political interference, unemployment, and housing.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I think in the future, I am going to keep my mouth shut about positive news and what it means for the market. Lately, every time I indicated that something positive was happening to the market, it tanked badly soon after my post :cry:

    I wonder where Len is these days?.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Charlie,
    You are absolutely correct about the good news, and ultimately it will have a positive effect on the market. Check my posts and you will see that I have given you precise information about this market downturn... and I put my money where my mouth is by selling every stock I owned at the market's high point, and then letting you know when I started to carefully re-enter the market.

    I would not have started my gradual and cautious re-entry into the market yesterday if I didn't believe that we are going to ulitmately return to levels above where we are now... and THAT's the whole point. I much prefer to acquire these stocks when they are beaten up than when they are at a premium.

    Would you rather have purchased that AAPL stock you bought two weeks ago, or today? The answer is obvious. So... if the stock goes significantly lower, than you will get yet another opportunity to buy some more.

    Eventually, when AAPL stock is at 230, or better yet at 300, you will think back and be glad you bought it.

    You are an optimist... so my suggestion to you is to stay optimistic. Be careful and cautious and look for bargains over the next days. For example, you mentioned an interest in Ford again... well, it got beat up a little bit today, and is now a better price than it was. THAT's the way you want to buy it... when the price is low.

    Certainly, without a doubt, I would also love to hear Len discuss the market here with us. His optimism is always refreshing, as is his perspective of the fundamentals... which is why I predict he would tell you that ultimately all the good fundamental news will prevail over the politics... and I also predict he will agree with me that some of the politics of the Obama administration (and Washington as well) have indeed sent shockwaves throughout the market.

    I'd love to hear his next "magic number" prediction for the Dow. If I recall correctly, it wasn't all that long ago that I predicted we will see around a 12K Dow sometime this year. Was I too optimistic? We'll have to see.

    :)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Charlie,

    I just want to make sure I make this point clear... even though I am ultimately a long-term optimist on the stock market, I honestly do see a lot of downside potential in the short-term, and continue to expect a bumpy road ahead. The investors continue to ignore the good news. Think about it... if the good news doesn't have a positive impact, then what's left?

    Please be careful, and go slow. Every move to the downside creates a better price to buy, and that is something I like, of course... but it also erodes the current value of the portfolio.

    As I asked recently, if you could repeat the stock market's 2009 performance, would you? It was very brutal, yet one of life's biggest opportunities to make a fortune in the market.

    So... moving forward, I am going to be very patient and selective during and after the storm... it could very well provide us some major opportunities.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Tag,

    As always, you are very gracious with your advice. After today's market action, it is a bear signal (market still goes down on bullish news). But we are in agreement that even though there could be a lot of "bumps and bruises" in the near term, the long term looks pretty good. Remember to buy low and sell high :D .

    BTW, I am not always an optimist. If you remember back in the summer and fall of 2008, I was advising all my friends and relatives to get the hell out of the stock market and get out immediately as I felt we were headed for a major crash due to a collapse of the financial system (brought on by the housing bubble). Some listened and some did not. My son was one that did not unfortunately, but he and his wife are young and they have plenty of time to recoup. You live and learn.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    ...we are in agreement that even though there could be a lot of "bumps and bruises" in the near term, the long term looks pretty good.

    Absolutely.

    ... back in the summer and fall of 2008, I was advising all my friends and relatives to get the hell out of the stock market and get out immediately as I felt we were headed for a major crash due to a collapse of the financial system (brought on by the housing bubble).

    You gave the advice of a genius!

    The bubble burst was nuclear... releasing global financial shockwaves and causing an economic meltdown. Sadly, many parts of the world are still wobbling in the aftermath, including our beloved U.S.A

    But Obama is trying to fix all that. ;)

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    My latest strategy is whenever Obama schedules a speech I'm a seller and then I get back in a few days later. I don't think I'll ever be on the same page as you guys about Obama. I like him, he's a good man with good intentions. But he can't lead. He reverses himself time and again with almost no notice. How he's handled the the 9/11 terrorist trial in NYC is beyond my comprehension. When I started reading that Bloomberg gave him an out on the trial being held in NYC I actually thought Obama called him and said I need a favor. 24 Hours later I read that Obama says he's still holding the trial in NYC at the court house in the shadows of the twin towers. I couldn't believe it. 24 hours after that Obama cancels the trial there.Someone high up in the party must have gotten to him and said do you realize the out Mayor Bloomberg gave you? I really have no faith in his decisions because I see a pure booksmart person, not a streetsmart one. He's a great speaker but I want to see actions of leadership, not speeches of leadership with no follow through.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    I don't think I'll ever be on the same page as you guys about Obama. I like him, he's a good man with good intentions. But he can't lead.

    Well, I also like Obama, but I've already posted my concerns earlier on. I think I have a realistic perspective... so don't lump me in with "you guys". My views are my own, and I clearly agree with much of your perspective as well as others on the forum. I never embrace everything in totality with any politician. I think he was the best choice at the time, but that doesn't mean I agree with everything he says or does... no way!

    If you have read my earlier posts, I clearly and repeatedly called the recent events surrounding Obama "political interference", and I also posted about punishing success and punitive taxation, which I totally believe is counter-productive. Surely you must agree with me! That said, I think at the end of the day, it is all going to work out, and he will do enough good things to straighten out some of the nightmare that he inherited.

    Good to hear from you!! I've been playing the market on a daily basis since last week, and I keep making daily gains... no matter which way the market goes. It's risky, but it's fun, and it's working perfectly so far... I can go into greater detail if you want, but I'm sure you know how it all works.

    Hope all is well with you Len!!

    TM
  • houdini1houdini1 Kansas City areaMember Posts: 8,208
    If we actually have this trial anywhere there is no way it can end any way but in a hung jury. Obama has already declared to the world that he is guilty and will be hanged. No way an impartial jury can be found. I say put him before a Military Tribunal where he belongs, otherwise we will just waste billions of dollars that we don't have.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 53,519
    Yeah, the military has a good track record of handling things both efficiently and fairly :sick:

    If they ran everything, no doubt markets would prosper and everyone would live in a new golden age.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Tag,

    Haven't read through the posts, so I didn't know your views but I'll go back and catch-up. January has been very busy so I've been absent. Things going very well and I hope you guys are all OK too.

    Got scared to death though Saturday night. We had a lousy one inch snowfall here and I was driving out with our friends across the street to one of my favorite restaurants in Spring Lake just after the snow began. Got to a major state road about 1.5 miles from my house and the brakes on the GL locked on me and only came free at the last second as I pumped them. Apparently prior tire tracks compressed the snow and put a layer of thin ice at the very top which acted like black ice on top of snow. It was very cold - only 17 while it was snowing so any refreeze would have been almost instant. The area where this happened is also also a decent downhill so the land aided the skid. As I got to the corner I noticed no one coming on the main road so rather than stop I just went through the stop sign and made a right turn. I always had control of the steering but couldn't stop the truck. I was also hesitant to push the brakes hard once I got them free. On our way home about 3 hours later I come across a blockade on the same main road I turned on after the skid. I detoured but came down a different side street leading back to that main road and about a quarter mile up and I see about 10-15 emergency vehicles precisely where I skidded. That intersection was an accident waiting to happen and luckily I avoided it. I had to make a u-turn and completely detour around all that to get home. I still don't know the details of what happened there but they threw so much rocksalt that you could have plowed it.

    It's amazing how quickly things can go wrong. Tonight another 2-3" snow is happening and the weekend may bring anothe 1-2 foot blizzard so the snow is challenging here this year.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Len,
    Goodness, that accident was indeed waiting to happen, and you are blessed that you did not fall victim to it. Your GL is a very safe vehicle in most situations, and it sounds like you are very connected to it as a driver.

    Your weather sounds lousy, and even though our Malibu weather is worthy of bragging rights, I must in fairness add that some of our beaches here took a serious hit in January, and a few areas are devastated. There are a few celebrity homes in one area located a couple of blocks from where I live, and those celebrities have paid out millions of dollars to fund a project to build a protective rock revetment wall that is supposed to protect their homes from the ocean and build back the devastated beach.

    I probably will stop the day-trading at this point and take a break from the action. It was very lucrative, but I'm really not cut out for it.

    Once Obama's bank shakeup is over, then I will go even bigger into Citigroup. Unless the bank shakeup is seriously damaging, I totally believe that Citi shares are going to throw at least a double, and could quite possibly grow to 3 - 5 times their current value within about 5 years. I'd love to know your opinion on this!!.. hint, hint. ;)

    Again, great to hear from you and rest assured that I appreciate every single one of your posts, and always look forward to them. :)

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    See: "Nuremberg trials"--created upon insistence of the USA, to uphold our and allied moral position in the world against the Nazis. Open trials are part of our tradition, and Nuremberg is an awesome precedent. We Americans aren't very good at history, I know, I know. :P

    Your buy/sell strategy with Obama might come back to bite you---his poll numbers are rising again.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    Look at this mess!

    I see it as another opportunity to buy stocks when they are beaten up... and I am doing so.

    TM
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Sonoma, CaliforniaMember Posts: 64,482
    do you know a site called http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/?
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaMember Posts: 8,441
    do you know a site called http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/?

    I do now. ;)

    Thanks,

    TM
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