The Stock Market and Investing

Mr_Shiftright

Well there is the argument, often presented by abstract artists themselves, that the importance of the work is not so much what it IS, but what "happens" when you view it.

Fair enough but really, couldn't we sit in a quiet room and stare at a freshly painted wall?

This is dangerously close to New--Agey "feely good" palaver. (a technique not uncommon among financial analysts on TV, by the way. )

anthonyp

Ha t

anthonyp

Hola

Congrats on your countryman winning the race....Saw that and thought of yourself, although I`m not into formula racing.....In fact everything is just too fast for me....now a day..

Unfortunately I don`t think either of us can aspire to own any works by the artists you mention, but some of the works Mr Shifty mentioned on his way to speaking of `valuations` we can.....I sort of think that they would represent a `trade`, and a quick one at that, as the lasting value may not be there.....Tony

euphonium

".....Now when I see something like that, if I just concentrate on what I am seeing, a sort of peacefulness can come over me...Very subdued, but never the less `something`, which is way better than it use to be...."

I understand. I call it "sleep".

tagman

Stocks really went on a nice ride for almost two weeks, but Obama's health reform looks like it might become a reality, and it spooked the market.

I'm not saying that I don't think we need some sort of health reform, but once again Obama's agenda has messed with the market in a negative way.

I'm not complaining. I made some really nice gains during these past two weeks. At least on paper... LOL.

Charlie, I'm guessing that your portfolio is very impressive by now.

TM

cyclone4

Tag, all I was reading on the news wires yesterday was that the market was once again concerned about the Greek debt issue and not the pending Health Care Reform. The market has known for a couple weeks now that the Health Care Reform Bill was going to pass and the market has been gradually rallying. I really think that some people are being incredibly negative about the effect the Health Care Reform will have on the Stock Market. I don't think it will mean a "hill of beans" to the market when it is all said and done.

My portfolio is doing quite well and I continue to be bullish. I took profits on SXI (Standex International) back on Thursday but I am going to add to my portfolio probably on Monday or Tuesday for better or for worse.

tagman

"Tag, all I was reading on the news wires yesterday was that the market was once again concerned about the Greek debt issue and not the pending Health Care Reform. The market has known for a couple weeks now that the Health Care Reform Bill was going to pass and the market has been gradually rallying. I really think that some people are being incredibly negative about the effect the Health Care Reform will have on the Stock Market. I don't think it will mean a "hill of beans" to the market when it is all said and done."

Charlie, the financial broadcasts are loaded with coverage about the market implications of Obama's health reform, and I've been reading about it for days. Don't know how you could have missed it all. ??

Even at this very moment I am writing this post, CNBC's RT mobile financial news is currently featuring the top five financial news stories about the health care and it's market implications.

TM

Mr_Shiftright

I'm with cyclone on this one. The stock market "jitters" are just interested parties jacking up the paranoia. One in Six dollars we spend (that's on EVERYTHING) goes to medical costs. The position is untenable, regardless of one's political, economic or religious point of view. It's an "American Issue" and no one has had the guts to deal with it. Ugly nasty problems are always messy. This isn't the movies.

cyclone4

Charlie, the financial broadcasts are loaded with coverage about the market implications of Obama's health reform, and I've been reading about it for days. Don't know how you could have missed it all. ??

Sorry Tag :confuse: I was not watching TV or CNBC at all yesterday. However, I was watching Reuters News wires on a commodity quote screen at work all day and it seemed like all they were talking about was the Greek debt problem resurfacing and that was the reason they were giving for the weakness in the market yesterday. However, based on the fact that the market has been going up almost on a daily basis (yesterday's tiny dip aside), this tells me that the market does NOT give a hoot about the Health Care Bill. The market has known it will pass for a couple weeks now. I am not in the least worried about it.

BTW, I am all for the Health Care Reform Bill. It is BADLY needed in this country. The insurance companies have been pulling all stops to kill it but they will fail. Maybe now these SOB's will not be able to charge as much as they want and raise the rates whenever they feel like it. Screw them!

Mr_Shiftright

We are the only industrialized country in the world without universal health care actually. Also some non-industrialized countries, like Trinidad, Thailand, Kuwait, etc have it as well.

Funding sources vary--most are a mix of public/private.

Also the the American Journal of Public Health says that over 2 million U.S. veterans are without health insurance of any kind. (common misconception in America is that all US vets get health care, but this is not so. If you don't have a service-related disability, you have access to VA hospitals based on "means", and if you make over $30K a year, you're out. I'm one of those so I know).

houdini1

Everyone should have access to health care, but with the over inflated cost of health care in the U.S., along with the current greed and corruption, I am afraid this proposal will bankrupt us. I hope I am wrong.

Mr_Shiftright

well not doing it will certainly bankrupt us. That seems a given. There will always be greed and corruption. The trick is to punish it in such a way as to dampen it down.

cyclone4

Everyone should have access to health care, but with the over inflated cost of health care in the U.S., along with the current greed and corruption, I am afraid this proposal will bankrupt us. I hope I am wrong.

Houdini1,

That's the point. There is SO much greed and corruption under the present system. I believe this greed and corruption will be greatly diminished under the new reformed health care system. How will this bankrupt us? If the stock market thought this was going to bankrupt us, the Dow would have been totally collapsing the past few weeks and make new lows (much lower than the early March lows of 2009). Trust me! The market is much smarter than any one individual. In reality, the present system is much more likely to bankrupt America than the new system. My advice is buy stocks on every dip and enjoy the ride for the next several years. This is going to be a slow but prolonged bull market.

ljflx

Charlie, Tag and anyone else - I've given up trying to change my e-mail in my profile. It never works and always goes back to my original e-mail which I w'ont make public. I've established a temp one at Gmail so drop me a line. It's lenfin0211@gmail.com. I'm not concerned about it getting public as I'll drop it in the future.

Sorry I've been out of the loop, first quarter is my busiest point of the year, made all the more busy because we are refinacing a loan. Market is definitely opening up as we have 4 deeply interested banks but you need a strong leverage ratio, which fortunately we have.

I like the market and economic signals but I d'ont see employment coming back for a long time. We may need a lot of baby boomer retirements for that. Think we'll have a lot of resistance at 11,000 but once we clear it I see a ride back toward 12,000. Ultimately I see us getting back to within 15-20% of the Dow peak as the next high point and then we'll have to see how the monster debt refinancing goes in 2012. If it goes well we can break higher at that point.

Charlie - this winter was a killer. 80-85" of snow here and that rogue rain storm last weekend wiped out 4 large blue spruce I had off on the side. We also had over 5" of rain with many hours of 40-50mph wind gusts followe by a break and then 50-60 mph wind gusts with some reaching 65 for about 5 hours. One of the worst storms I ever saw here. Some parts of my town had no power for 4 days. Mine just went in and out a few times but never longer than a few minbutes so I was fortunate. The late February storm was absurd. While I got a foot of snow, NYC and north got 20-40" and due north of them Albany NY to Caribou Maine got rain, very mild temperatures and severe flooding. The ocean fetch from a stalled storm brought real warm air in and you actually had to drive due south to leave rain and get into snow. Exactly the opposite of normal weather but well explained on local news in this area.

cyclone4

The late February storm was absurd. While I got a foot of snow, NYC and north got 20-40" and due north of them Albany NY to Caribou Maine got rain, very mild temperatures and severe flooding. The ocean fetch from a stalled storm brought real warm air in and you actually had to drive due south to leave rain and get into snow. Exactly the opposite of normal weather but well explained on local news in this area.

Len, first of all welcome back to the discussion. You have been greatly missed. I am happy to hear that you more or less agree with me about the stock market over the next couple years.

I followed that late February storm very closely and I wrote special reports on it at the time. It was absolutely a case of a warm ocean fetch to the north of the low pressure system as the center of low pressure tracked westward (very unusual) for a while from near Cape Cod to very close to New York. Very mild oceanic air air also spread westward to the north of the low pressure system and this mild air reached all the way to Rochester and Buffalo, NY. This resulted in the heavy snow to change to rain in Rochester and it was well above freezing there for several days with lots of melting. Meanwhile, much colder air was swinging in from the Midwest eastward toward PA,, New York City and points south to the south of the intense low. And as you stated, places like Albany, NY and Burlington, VT had temperatures in the 40s with east and northeast that had their origin in the relatively warm Atlantic. At the same time New York City was in the upper 20s/low 30s with west and northwest winds (low center just to the northeast). When the low pushed a bit further east, the wind finally went to the north in New York with warm advection of air from the north and the temperatures reached the upper 30s to near 40 for a while.

This system was very similar to a very intense storm that affected the western Midwest back in late January I believe. We had so many snow storms here in central IA that I forgot the exact date. We were getting heavy snow with temperatures in the teens in Des Moines, while to the north across northern IA and MN, it was well above freezing with some rains. That very intense low came up from the south and once it reached Burlington, IA (southeast corner of the state), it tracked northwest up toward northern IA, and then looped to the south into western IA, then eastward to a position near Burlington once again. BTW, the reason for these weird tracks is due to the fact that the surface low got captured under the upper air low and it was basically circulating around the upper level low.

Hey and guess what? After we finally melted all of the snow here as of 5-6 days ago, and temperatures reached the mid 60s back on Thursday, we got hit again with another storm that dumped 5-7 inches late Friday afternoon and Friday night. But this time of year with a powerful sun, most of it melted away this afternoon with highs in the upper 30s. I made an ultimatum several days ago and I am keeping it. I am removing the snow tires from my 2008 LS460L next week. I don't give a crap if it snows again. I have had it. I doubt it will snow significantly again, but one never knows for sure until about the end of April around here. I will never again buy a car without AWD. It is a pain in the you know what to change tires twice a year.

tagman

Charlie,

My posts were not reflective of my opinions regarding the health care reforms or my market predictions. They were to point out that there was sufficient media to suggest that Obama's health care reform and the upcoming vote was in part responsible for Friday's market dip, and that the media predicts that if the vote passes the reform then we should look for a negative market result.

And... I did not get any impression that most of the media coverage was suggesting that there was going to be a major long-term problem with the markets, but rather more of a knee-jerk negative reaction.

Regarding my own personal views, while I do believe that Obama and his agenda can give the market the jitters, I do not broadly disagree with his perspectives overall, with exception that I do not agree with any politician that believes it is somehow productive to punish success through taxation. I so genuinely believe it is counter productive and downright stupid. But that's another topic for another day.

I personally believe that we desperately need health care reform. I am horrified at the way millions of our own Americans (including so many of our American children) are without any health care whatsoever. And, I am so sick and tired of spending a bloody fortune on health care because the cost of health care is driven up by absurd levels of malpractice insurance premiums that are further driven up by attorneys that suck off the judicial system and sue well-intentioned highly-skilled doctors. It's all out of control, and I am glad that something might be done. I just hope the right formula for reforms will be put into place, so we don't end up with a mess on our hands. Anyway, I believe that we need health care reform... without a doubt.

Also, I have already posted that I am in the market, in a more serious and long-term way, and have previously posted my market predictions, which you posted in a reply that you are in agreement.. I wouldn't be in the market so strongly if I was personally worried that this health care reform would have very serious long-term negative implications. Just because I might point out in a post that the news media reports it that way, it doesn't mean for a minute that it's my own point of view.

And, I think we have some tough times ahead, but I also think we are going to have some astonishing technological breakthroughs (nano-technology, medical technology, and energy technology, for examples) that are going to go a long way to solving some of our problems. That's one of the reasons that I have formulated a significant part of my latest stock portfolio towards long-term investing... regardless of health care reform.

TM

houdini1

I believe this greed and corruption will be greatly diminished under the new reformed health care system. How will this bankrupt us?

Well, I hope you are right...but if we can get rid of the corruption in the new system, then why haven't we done so under our present system? Going to a larger more complicated system would just seem to invite more corruption to me.

IMO, no one really has a clue as to what will happen and how this will eventually play out. It could be great or it could be a disaster. I can't help but worry when politicians say "trust me".

Mr_Shiftright

It probably will not go to either extreme in the beginning. I feel certain that there will be further reforms and modifications after the Universal Health Care is implemented.

As for taxation----the current operating system we have in the USA, which is deficit spending + tax breaks, is completely unsound.

If we plot GDP against tax rates, historically I mean, we do not, interestingly, find a correlation of rising GDP with lower taxes.

I see the problem not as "taxes" per se, but people's anger when they don't see themselves GETTING anything for those taxes. People who want no taxes and bountiful services are not thinking straight IMO, and people who pay a lot of taxes and bust their wheels on potholes and have trash on their streets have a very valid right to be angry.

houdini1

Well, all I can say is that if we can save one trillion dollars by adding 30 million people to the health care system, I say let's extend insurance to all of China and get rid of our national debt overnight !!

tagman

The "tax breaks" you refer to are for a select and tiny percentage. They are not the problem. Consider that the bulk of lower income earners are at a reasonably fair rate but their tax dollars are wasted by the government. So here's the problem... In order to attempt to compensate for that massive waste, the lower middle class earners and particularly the upper middle class earners are repeatedly targeted and they get the shaft by having higher indexed rates... essentially punishing them... and even with that extra tax revenue the spending is out of control in Washington... so what do they do? They have imposed additional stealth taxes, such as the AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax), which ultimately counteracts the normal write-offs such as mortgage interest deductions and charitable contributions, for examples. Now THAT's messed up! And, it's going to get worse!

TM

Mr_Shiftright

China already has universal health care of sorts which, for the poor and lower income strata, seems better than ours. Very cheap. About 80% of the population is signed up. It's a tiered system. If you go to local hospital, government pays about 80%---municipal hospital, about 60%, --big city modern hospital about 30%. So for big ticket, hi-tech stuff, not so good, but still do-able for many people. Right now, the gov't is pumping about 121 billion into the system.

Taiwan has a single-payer compulsory universal health care plan. 99% of citizens are covered. Multiple funding sources.

Greenland's system is totally free medical service for everyone, even foreigners. This is supported by taxation.

So every developed or developing country is working it out in their own way as we speak.

circlew

Well, here is the stats rating the countries and we are number 37! Ridiculous!!

WHO Rank - World Health Systems

When Costa Rica beats you and Cuba is coming up on the backstretch, you know you've got BIG PROBLEMS!

I do not think the Politicos have all of the answers but we HAVE TO START SOMEWHERE. I have to give it to Obama that at least he is committed regardless of the level of perfection.

I'm thinking of moving closer to the Mediterranean for awhile while the new systems takes off here! Viva Italia!



Regards,
OW

Mr_Shiftright

The US is best though for things like Head Transplants and tummy tucks. :P

houdini1

Yes, a lot of countries have universal health care but that doesn't necessarily mean that their people actually have practical access to reasonable health care in a timely manner. I wonder what their waiting rooms look like.

Many docs in the U.S. are so overworked now that they won't accept new patients, many more won't accept any form of insurance, and a great many certainly won't accept medicare or medicaid patients. What will happen when an additional 30 million very undesirable (from the docs standpoint) patients are dumped into the system?

In the future the only people who will receive top notch health care are politicians and those rich enough to pay cash. The rest will be finding out what those waiting rooms look like in those other countries with universal health care.

Mr_Shiftright

I have Canadian friends and they assure me that there are is no waiting. They make an appointment and in they go in a timely fashion. This seems to be yet another unfounded assertion about health car in industrialized western countries. More scare tactics from the insurance lobby if you ask me. I'd love to see the Global Comparative Waiting Line Study. :P

My cousin was actually mugged in Nice France last year and had her leg broken (they were kind enough to push her down a flight of stairs). She has working papers for France and received fast, free and highly effective treatment.

So I am highly skeptical of such claims.

If the argument is that the US government cannot be as efficient and humane as the French and Canadian government, I couldn't argue with that. It might be true. Say what you will about the French and all their faults, but they have a generally enlightened cultural view of empathy for the downtrodden.

houdini1

Well, it will be interesting to look back over these comments in a few years and see how our perspectives are at that time.

I hope you are right but something tells me that our fairly good health care system is going to end up the same way our public education system has.

stever

We may need a lot of baby boomer retirements for that.

I'm on the late edge of the boomers and I don't plan to retire - my siblings both took early retirement but my sister often wishes she had just cut back on her hours. My brother just quit, so he hasn't had time to get bored yet.

So I agree - the long term employment figures don't look all that great, even if we let in a lot more Sergey Brins emigrate here.

Available health care could lead to some interesting work and lifestyle experiments since working for medical benefits would no longer have to be a driving force for a lot of people.

I don't see much way of taking advantage of that possible trend in the stock market though. Perhaps investing in Adecco or Kelly Services or other temp staffing agency?

circlew

Well, unless we do something, 37th is going to look mighty good in a few more years.

Regards,
OW

Mr_Shiftright

The public school system in America today is a perfect example of Hell being paved with good intentions, IMO, including the good intentions of the private foundations set up by the likes of Bill Gates and Sam Walton, and those of President Bush and President Obama. Charter schools and standardized testing have basically destroyed public education. Can you think of anything more absurd than the 2014 deadline public schools are facing from the government, to have a 100% proficiency rate in math and reading? Added to that is incomplete teacher training (lots of theory very little about classroom skills) and lousy pay.

Radical reform seems the only way to go here.

houdini1

Who cares about someone else's ratings. How has your personal experience with out health care system been? Your family? Anyone you know?

I know I don't have any gripes and I certainly don't see people dying in the streets as some would have you believe. There is nearly always some safety net for those who do fall thru the cracks.

circlew

Well, one one ER visit for me, my insurance only covered part of the bill leaving me with $1K to pay on my own. Given the cost of the care I received over 4K on tests, I think I have huge gripes with the coverage considering the premiums I paid for the insurance at the time. Yes, in my book we are below 37th so don't ask me.

I consider our health care system in the same shape as GM at the end of 2008! We might not be dying in the streets but the cost of care will kill the economy in the long run if it's not reigned in.

I also don't particularly appreciat health insurance companies directing my health care either.

Regards,
OW

Mr_Shiftright

My good friend spent three days in the hospital recently and his bill was $58,000.

I suppose if you are one of those 2 million vets who make too much money for VA benefits but also too much money for Medicaid, but not enough to pay $400--$600 a month for private insurance, then yeah, there's no safety net.

True *most* hospitals won't throw an uninsured vet into the street to die if he/she is brought in, but they will bill them nonetheless and that's their burden to pay off.

The reason that Universal Health Care didn't get enormous lobbying money is because it is directed at the low/lower middle income strata---traditionally not a well-organized, well funded Political Machine.

cyclone4

My posts were not reflective of my opinions regarding the health care reforms or my market predictions. They were to point out that there was sufficient media to suggest that Obama's health care reform and the upcoming vote was in part responsible for Friday's market dip, and that the media predicts that if the vote passes the reform then we should look for a negative market result.

Tag, I did not want to give the impression that your post was a reflective of your opinion about the market or the health care reform bill. I was just pointing out that on the news wire that I was looking at, they did not bring up the pending health care reform as a reason for the little dip. They were talking about the Greek debt problem. No big deal.

Here is a story hot off the press very early this morning (yes I come to work at 4:00 AM 4 days a week) that you and others may find interesting now that the health care reform bill will become law. It still talks about the Greek debt issue and the Indian rate hike.

03/22 04:07 CDT World stocks drop as Greek debt, India hike weigh

World stocks drop as Greek debt, India hike weigh

By JEREMIAH MARQUEZ
AP Business Writer

HONG KONG (AP) -- Global stock markets fell Monday as worries about Greece's
debt crisis and India's sudden interest rate hike rattled investors.

Major Asian indexes were down as much as 2 percent and European shares opened
lower, adding to declines Western markets suffered on Friday. Oil prices fell
toward $80 a barrel, while the dollar was little changed against the euro and
the yen.

Uncertainty over Greece's ability to pay its massive debts has weighed on
investors in recent months. But with other countries that use the euro currency
reluctant to come to Greece's aid so far, a solution has been out of reach. On
Sunday, Germany's chancellor squelched talk a bailout might be discussed at
this week's European summit.

Further weighing on investors was an unexpected decision by India's central
bank to raise interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India hiked key lending rates
late Friday by a quarter-percentage point in an attempt to cool high inflation
amid a faster-than-expected economic rebound. The move unnerved investors
concerned growth and asset prices could sink once governments start winding
down their stimulus measures.

As trading started in Europe, Britain's FTSE fell 0.6 percent, Germany's DAX
shed 0.4 percent and France's CAC-400 dropped 0.5 percent. Wall Street futures
pointed to a weaker open in the U.S. Monday.

Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng plummeted 437.57 points, or 2.1 percent,
to 20,933.25 and South Korea's main benchmark lost 13.44, or 0.8 percent, to
1,672.67.

Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday.

Elsewhere, Australia's market fell 0.9 percent and India's Sensex dropped 0.7
percent. Shanghai's benchmark added 0.2 percent in back-and-forth trade.

Oil prices were down in Asia, with benchmark crude for April delivery falling
56 cents to $80.12 a barrel.

In currencies, the euro slightly higher at $1.3533 from $1.3525 after diving on
Friday. The dollar was mostly flat at 90.54 yen from 90.53 yen.

cyclone4

Here is the latest from the news wire. BTW, those talking heads on CNBC and especially Fox are just that..."TALKING HEADS. Most of them are clueless as to what drives the market. And, whenever they have a guest that is a voice of reason, they constantly interrupt him and just act like total morons. We do not even have a TV here at the office and I am glad. I would be wasting my time watching these idiots make fools of themselves. OK, here is the story:

03/22 09:51 CDT Greek debt fears continue to weigh on world stocks

Greek debt fears continue to weigh on world stocks

By PAN PYLAS
AP Business Writer

LONDON (AP) -- European stocks pared their losses Monday as Wall Street opened
strongly after the passage of a health care overhaul bill, but concerns about
Greece's debt crisis ahead of a key EU summit this week continued to weigh on
sentiment.

European markets followed their Asian counterparts lower with the FTSE 100
index of leading British shares down 38.31 points, or 0.7 percent, at 5,611.82.
Germany's DAX fell 34.66 points, or 0.6 percent, to 5,947.77 while the CAC-40
in France was 32.90 points, or 0.8 percent, lower at 3,892.54.

Wall Street opened better than anticipated as investors took in their stride
the weekend's passage of sweeping health care reform _ the bill could have a
far-reaching impact ranging from health insurers and drug makers to companies
that provide employees with health benefits.

Jeremy Batstone-Carr, director of private client research at Charles Stanley
stockbrokers, said the impact on the pharmaceuticals sector would "is likely to
be relatively limited," especially as the pricing of prescription products
remains "free from external interference."

Mr_Shiftright

Greece has one of the highest budget deficits in Europe, which is four times the ceiling set by European Union budget rules.

By spring, Greece must refinance a large chunk of that debt or risk defaulting on its loans, which would be a huge blow to the whole credibility of the eurozone economy.

The Greek government has announced a series of spending cuts and tax rises to reduce its deficit by billions of euros, but doubts remain about whether these will be enough.

Global stock markets have been affected by the crisis, and the euro has weakened because of it.

Mr_Shiftright

Contagion effect

All this begs the question; given the costs involved, why is the outside world getting involved in what many see as a Greek problem?

The answer turns the question on its head, pointing out that this was never a problem just facing Greece, but an international one.

How come?

Well, partly because the Greek crisis has made investors nervous about lending money to governments through buying government bonds. Consequently, everybody's interest rates are heading higher as governments are having to pay a greater risk premium to borrow money, according to Vanessa Rossi, an international economist at Chatham House, a think tank.

cyclone4

I believe Vanessa is on the right track.

fintail

And this year we're also going to see issues about debt in Spain and Portugal, possibly Italy, and the Limeys aren't exactly in a secure position either. Going to be an interesting couple years...the US isn't the only debt monster...

ljflx

Watch the strength of the dollar as that will weigh on a lot of things. I see the Euro weakening to 1.15-1.20 by year end and a drop to dollar parity to 1.10 within 10-12 montsh would not surprise me one bit.

Mr_Shiftright

Yes they're calling it PIGS---for Portugal Italy Greece Spain, also I'm sure the countries in question would prefer SPIG.

I see this partly at least as a "drilling down" of credit sources--that is, when one source ran out, people kept drilling down to lower levels of less secure debt---just to fuel the machine. It's a macro of what credit hungry people do-----first they mortgage the house, which is pretty secure (or was), then go upside down immediately on a car loan, then then go WAY upside down on unsecured credit, like credit cards. All this of course, with no inflation adjusted gain in actual wages or earning power.

Gerbils on a wheel does come to mind.

fintail

I'd like to see that. IMO the Euro has been very overvalued, as if speculators are willfully ignoring Eurozone problems. Parity to 1.20 seems to be a more reasonable level than the 1.50 seen when I was there several months ago. I will also be back for a few weeks next year, so I hope it remains low :shades:

I see the Loonie has been strong in recent months too...that one makes much more sense to me, Canada doesn't have nearly the issues being seen and upcoming for Europe.

fintail

I've seen that...PIGS is good...they'll be feeding on German and Dutch goodwill for at least a short period. I have to wonder how high the old DM would be had there not been a Euro...maybe this is actually helping Germany, at least on the export market. It's really undermining the EU too, which does not make me complain.

I've read a little about British banking problems too, and then there's the whole mess they got involved with in Iceland (and then pointed fingers and cried, surprise surprise)...there's no safe place out there right now.

ljflx

It's as propped up as the Yuan is pushed down. With China it's understandable as business strategy as a booming Yuan will seriously impact their export economy. With Europe though I almost get the feeling it's propped up by pride of wanting to unseat the dollar, hence Europe maintains high interest rates in the face of bad economics. But you can only prop something up for so long before paying the price.

Mr_Shiftright

The Germans are *very* reluctant to help the Greeks, and the EU is putting pressure on them. In any event, EU taxpayers are going to have to bear this sooner or later, if aid is forthcoming. Given their already high tax structure, they aren't going to be happy campers. As we've noted before, people don't mind paying taxes as long as they see tangible benefit in their own lives. But it's hard to convince someone in Germany that their welfare is tied to Greece somehow.

fintail

Indeed, it's going to create a firestorm in Germany and many other places, as their welfare really isn't tied to Greece other than in some roundabout EU argument. I don't see this ever-more-megalomaniacal "union" living forever. I honestly hope it is being undermined now.

This about sums it up from the German point of view

fintail

China also plays a lot dirtier than just about anyone else...so their currency manipulation will probably be more successful.

I agree about that "pride" argument...people always gun for the big dog. They've gone about it wrong, however, as you say. High interest rates with nothing behind them is not a sustainable ideal. I also have to wonder about the future of the Pound...I know a few people in the UK, and as the Euro and Pound have become closer to parity, they are not happy.

ljflx

Well that's the whole problem with the Euro as a viable currency in the first place. If the currency comes long after the countries are established it has a hard time getting established and lasting. If the people of Germany and other strong economies are not willing to do this then the Euro w'ont survive as it currently exists.

Mr_Shiftright

Well the basic concept of the EU seems viable...their combined GDP exceeds ours...and without a huge military budget anymore, they can certainly plow money into more creative enterprises. But nationalism creates instability and that's not going away anytime soon. Now we have serious issues in Turkey, which is not EU but really wants to be---if they should pull out of NATO and retreat politically from the EU towards the Middle East---well then, a whole new mess to deal with, for the US and EU.

I'm not sure Germany's advice to Greece would be welcome. Can't say as those of us with a sense of history really yearn for German industriousness to get out of hand. :P

houdini1

If the U.S. did not have to provide national defense for all these other countries, or if these countries would reimburse us for providing that service, we could afford national health care. In effect, the U.S. taxpayers are paying for the European health care programs.

circlew

But you can only prop something up for so long before paying the price.


I wish we could say that about oil prices. :sick:

$3.00/gal. for gas is a foregone conclusion. Even in the face of the $-strength, oil goes higher...those Arabs are pretty darn smart.

Regards,
OW