I am running XP on my office computer and I have Windows 7 on my netbook. Somehow I was lucky enough to skip Vista completely. When my office computer crapped out about 8 months ago I was able to find a new E Machine that ran XP. I knew I wanted no part of Vista just from testing it. Windows 7 and XP are very similar and both work quite well.
I will just send Bill a check out of the kindness of my heart !!
It’s basically incredible that this is happening with unemployment in the euro area still rising, and only slight labor market progress in the US. ... The right thing, overwhelmingly, is to do things that will reduce spending and/or raise revenue after the economy has recovered — specifically, wait until after the economy is strong enough that monetary policy can offset the contractionary effects of fiscal austerity. But no: the deficit hawks want their cuts while unemployment rates are still at near-record highs and monetary policy is still hard up against the zero bound. ... Utter folly posing as wisdom. Incredible.
Hope your son has a good job... LOL. And lots of patience!
Seriously, that's a blessing for your son and his wife, and you and your wife are so fortunate to be there. I have no doubt that you wish all of you were living closer together, so you could see those twins grow up on a more regular basis.
.................................................
Oil disaster?... I cannot put into words how deeply disturbed I feel by this. And now... I am even more concerned about what lessons will (or won't) be learned from this.
The business of energy seems to offer us a sad history. Almost ALL of our natural rivers are damned up, coal mining has been a disaster of its own, we were very close to a "China Syndrome" at Three-Mile Island , Chernobyl was a catastrophie beyond description, Exxon sure put the hurt on Alaska, and now THIS. And these are just the ones that come to mind, because there have been many other oil spills and oil rig incidents.
This particular event is one of the the worst environmental disasters EVER... at least so far... and I say "so far" because the attitude that I have seen regarding this tragedy is pathetic. It shows us that we are in a sad state of affairs, which boils down to the scary realization that we are all still very ripe for even worse.
And, these tragedies are not just regarding the energy business. IIRC, Dow chemical had a terrible accident in India... and I have seen some documentaries on the toxic waste in Africa, as well as the strip mining, destruction of rain forests, and toxic pollution beyond imagination.
To be fair, I believe it is somewhat expected that there will be tragic events along the path of progress to the future... sort of a "learning curve"... but it is imperative that the lessons are actually learned from those tragedies. Otherwise, they are all in vain.
In a twisted and sinister sort of way, environmentalists could be blamed for this disaster... that they have been the cause for the oil drilling to be pushed off-shore... but the real blame is that we are not truly focused in any substantial way on transitioning ourselves away from oil. Not only do we need a better energy policy and energy alternatives, but we need energy independence. There are much better, plentiful and safer means to provide energy. The deeper problem is that those alternatives haven't been financially attractive to those powerful folks that are "in control". I hate to consider, "What's next?"
It all gets down to MONEY, POWER, GREED.
Our economy went into a meltdown crisis mode for the SAME reasons.
How much more damage to the planet and our society (and others) do we need to endure before people truly wake up? We need to take back our country and start taking the high road in all that we do.
Last December, the 2 year old HP laptop that cost me $1500 on an impulse buy died, it ran Vista. I was pretty peeved at this as I imagined the lifespan to be longer (it suffered a known motherboard-video card issue in the DV9000 models). I sold it for parts and bought a new Toshiba with Win 7. It is SO much better than Vista, I am now glad I had an excuse to replace the Vista machine. I'm 6 months in now and it really hasn't had a single problem. I also have a netbook with XP...runs fine even with its little Atom unit, but it does have 2GB to keep it moving.
Seriously, that's a blessing for your son and his wife, and you and your wife are so fortunate to be there. I have no doubt that you wish all of you were living closer together, so you could see those twins grow up on a more regular basis.
You cannot imagine how frustrating it is for my wife and I to be SO far away from both our kids and grandkids. After all, even Detroit is not a hop, skip, and a jump from central IA. But even though distance is a problem, we are still very blessed.
How much more damage to the planet and our society (and others) do we need to endure before people truly wake up? We need to take back our country and start taking the high road in all that we do.
I'll drink to that! The optimist in me says that this time something positive will finally emerge out of this monumental environmental catastrophe. I agree that the ultimate solution is to be free from oil dependence for our energy needs.
I went from XP to 7 (did the beta first) and it was a nice improvement. Then I got a laptop with Vista and I still wonder what all the fuss is about. It works fine and I haven't seen the need to upgrade it (and I have a free copy of 7 lying around here somewhere).
What needs to be upgraded is MSFT's stock price and a little dividend bump would be nice too. :-)
I was in Anchorage during the Exxon Valdez and saw oil under the shale on the beach as recently as 2005 out east of Seward on a kayaking trip. Monumental environmental catastrophe, but nothing much has changed since. That was oil drilled from "land" too. :sick:
I have shifted some of my stocks around... mostly sold those that I don't see as much upside for a while. Since those particular stocks have either provided me a gain, or are near even at this point, I think it is a smart move... given the nature of this market.
I am getting ready for the possibility of more downside, and if it comes, I will buy back the stocks I just sold at a better price. Also, I cut in half my exposure in the financials, such as Bank of America, Citi, and General Electric. I still hold a lot of these shares, so don't misunderstand... I am still holding these stocks, but again, I want to position myself in the event of more downside, before buying more.
If there is an upside swing, I am still holding a hefty amount of stocks to profit from that.
I feel that I have a decent balance here, so that I can buy if the market tanks, and I can benefit if it rallies.
All that said, I have not sold any of my positions in Apple, Sprint, General Mills, and Vodaphone.
Overall, I am still waaaay ahead of where I would have been if I had not been timing the market, selling on the highs, and buying on the dips. I consider my action today as just another strategic move to take advantage of this crazy volatility.
Did I say crazy volatility? Maybe I should have said insane volatility.
The elements that drive stock market players, entrepreneurs, & other independent businessmen.
" those powerful folks that are "in control".
Remember, those "in control" earned their ranks as Captains of Industry so they are to be honored for their achieving the same goals other "little guys" attempt.
You mean the elements that drive war, murder, cowardice, hypocrisy.
Being born into money and making more money is not a trait deserving of respect.
Many of those people you blindly claim should be "honored" deserve to be sent to a gallows or guillotine. They play a huge part in nearly every problem in society. Examine who pulls the strings of government and economics no matter who is in office.Take a look at the world outside of methland Clark County...the majority of these guys aren't ethical honorable people.
Corruption does not deserve to be honored. Agree, but innocent until proven guilty. Not all succesfull in business are crooks. Politics is much different.
Being born into money and making more money is not a trait deserving of respect ....fintail
The offspring are to be admired for using their inheritance to expand the family business and providing employment to many other Puget Sound residents.
Unless they are doing it just to be nice, no, it doesn't deserve respect. And they aren't doing it to be nice. Few people are running a charity. If the demand wasn't in this area, people here would just find employment elsewhere...this place remains one of the most capable employment bases in the nation.
Being born into money and making more money is not a trait deserving of respect.
Many of those people you [you = euphonium] blindly claim should be "honored" deserve to be sent to a gallows or guillotine. They play a huge part in nearly every problem in society. Examine who pulls the strings of government and economics no matter who is in office.Take a look at the world outside of methland Clark County...the majority of these guys aren't ethical honorable people.
Wow! I am once again glad that I sold stocks this morning. I am not sure yet, but I might trim it down even further tomorrow, or later in the week.
I don't want to completely get out of the market, at least not yet, because I think there are still some reasons we could see a rally.
But, this is a very unpredictable and unhealthy market, and at the end of the day, I will place preservation of capital ahead of excessive risk, as I have already proven with my track record.
Take a closer look at the declines in your stocks, after a day such as we have had today.....Although the dow is down another hundred , most stocks are off only small fractions....This is either suckering us along, or the end of a washout.....I`m betting the latter, but the big C is looking poorly......As you so suggested, preservation of what is left of this holding is getting important.....I still believe in it but as I said the government selling is not factored in, and won`t be until the selling is done....Good luck to you Tony
Depends upon which stocks you are holding. The Nasdaq stocks did worse than the Dow today.
I don't thinkg Citi's poor performance is very specific to Citi, but rather the financial sector as a whole, which seems to be under pressure. As you know, I cut my Citi holdings down considerably this morning before the drop in value, and I have other financial holdings as well, which I thankfully also cut down in size before the price drop. I am going to wait a little longer see if the sector rebounds, but the mess we are in suggests otherwise.
Any action I take with regards to the financial sector will include Citi... no special favors for the big C this time around.
With regards to AAPL... I am not as impressed with the new iPhone 4 as I am with the newly released HTC Evo 4G (carried by Sprint). That said, I have no doubt that the global market will flock to the iPhone 4.
The HTC Evo 4G has been described as the most powerful handheld in the world... many of its specifications decidedly trump the new iPhone 4, but it doesn't have Steve Jobs hyping it. Regardless, the HTC Evo 4G is nothing short of awesome, and I have decided that I am going to buy it later this week.
It is noted some posts from both sides of the country support the following adage.
“The more successful, visible or powerful you become, the more you will be negatively gossiped about. Success breeds envy and envy breeds the desire to destroy what is envied.”
Are they identical twins? First grandkids for you? Anyway my heartfelt congratulations and best wishes to you and your family.
Tag - d'ont want you to have a heart attack about this beacuse this one is going to jolt you. It's about 6 months away but it could happen much sooner. The G lease ends this month. June 30th actually. I'm then going to take my mothers Camry which runs to end of year as a third car (her driving days are over). When that lease ends the next car in my garage will almost certainly be - again hang in there for this one - an Audi A4 with Nav. There's someone who wants me to inquire about buying out the Camry lease early as my mothers car has real low mileage on it. If that happens the whole timeline moves up.
Thank you Len! Our daughter gave birth to our first grandchild (also a girl) about 2 and a half years ago in MI. She is now an incredible little girl. But the good news keeps on coming. Out son-in-law now has a job after being laid off from Ford almost 2 years ago. He got hired by a company that supplies certain parts for Ford. Our daughter is expecting their 2nd child in December. Hopefully this one will be a boy, but as long as it is healthy it does not matter much at all.
The G lease ends this month. June 30th actually. I'm then going to take my mothers Camry which runs to end of year as a third car (her driving days are over). When that lease ends the next car in my garage will almost certainly be - again hang in there for this one - an Audi A4 with Nav.
Wow! All I can say is that you are quite flexible.
I like what Bernanke had to say this evening when he spoke to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The market liked it as well since the S & P futures are up 8 points as of this writing after another crappy day today. Here are some of the important remarks on this story:
"My best guess is we will have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific," Bernanke said.
That's because economic growth won't be robust enough to quickly drive down the unemployment rate, now at 9.7 percent, he said in remarks to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a nonpartisan research group.
The economy grew at a 3 percent pace in the first quarter of this year. That's good growth during normal times. But coming out of such a deep recession, the economy must grow much more strongly to make a dent in the jobless rate.
Fears have grown that the recovery could be derailed if Europe's debt crisis turns into a broader financial contagion, crimping lending in the United States and around the globe. The situation has spooked investors, sending Wall Street into fits of panic.
Bernanke said the Fed is monitoring the European crisis carefully, and he believes European leaders are taking the right steps to deal with the problems.
Asked when the Fed will start raising interest rates, Bernanke quipped "in the future."
The Fed has pledged to hold rates at record lows to nurture the recovery. A growing number of economists now believe the Fed won't start to boost rates until next year given the European crisis and high unemployment.
I've got a gut feeling that we need to see some better employment numbers before the market is really going to take off. Sure, I agree with Tony's suggestion that solving the oil problem in the Gulf will help... but that's a short term boost.
European stability would help and some better housing data wouldn't hurt either... but IMO, it's really all about more jobs at this point. That's the kind of data that will turn the market around and keep it pointed in the right direction.
Off course, a good increase in employment figures would do the trick. But that will indeed take some time. It will not happen overnight. The economy "needs to learn how to walk before it can run". It will likely be a slow process.
Regardless, I am of the opinion that we will NOT see a double dip. If I did, I would have said "bye-bye" to all my stocks just as I did back in the summer of 2008.
Regardless, I am of the opinion that we will NOT see a double dip. If I did, I would have said "bye-bye" to all my stocks just as I did back in the summer of 2008.
That was brilliant, back in '08... absolutely brilliant!
But I am curious what makes you so confident that we won't see a double dip recession this time around?
I wonder if that word is spelled correctly, and further if it is the word I want to use? I guess that sums up my thoughts overall, alot of indecision on my part...
The interest on the investments continues to roll in every month, but I think the oil disaster is way bigger than we understand at this time, therefore our recovery is going to be hurt.....All around me people are at work and progress is impressive compared to a year ago....Unfortunately the stock market shot up way too fast, so we are paying the price now, in the stock market.......Everything else is moving forward...
These uncertainties get magnified by the Wall Street crowd (brokers) therefore the commission churn is profitable to them, and they use` it`......The big money is the program computer stuff that whipsaws all but the few, and the manipulation that goes on with the short selling or margin buying in huge amounts---remember my post about my own account----So I guess we have to adapt to this stuff until the regulators start to do their jobs.......I had great hope for the SEC (Mary Schapiro) but alas I have not been impressed so far..
My opinion of Obama is still that I like him, but am discouraged in some ways with what has been accomplished....As for his handling of the oil crisis, I just put myself in his shoes, and as I know nothing , I would assume he knew nothing, therefore he is fine in my book....I mean just what can be done that BP isn`t trying to do? When this plays out, and the oil is contained, I think we will again realize that the economy is way better than it was, and the market will have a surge......There is a good writeup in the Washington Post about a little town in Miss. and the impact on a few people......Tony
But I am curious what makes you so confident that we won't see a double dip recession this time around?
Tag,
I sometimes get too simplistic for my own good. But to put it simply, I have a lot of faith on the overall U.S. economy. It will continue to make strides (although slowly). THIS is the major reason why I do not believe there will be a double dip. Basically, Mr. Bernanke took the words out of my mouth last night.
As far as the oil spill disaster is concerned, I obviously agree that it is a monumental environmental disaster, but I do not believe it will have that much impact on the overall U.S. economy. In this regard, I am not as concerned as Tony and you seem to be about its impact on the economy.
BTW, I have been playing around (going back and forth) with 25 shares of AAPL stock. I had bought 25 shares down around $239, sold at $264 and bought again this morning at $246. Evidently, the stock was down today due to some sort of a glitch on the launch of the new iPhone yesterday. Babysitting duties have prevented me from paying too much attention to the news. I obviously own a lot more shares of AAPL from various price points, but it has been fun to "scalp" with 25 shares.
There's no doubt things are kind of fuzzy at this point in time. It's just not very clear as to what is the genuine state of affairs in many different areas... It leaves us with lots of questions...
What's the REAL situation in the Gulf? How long will it take to clean it up? How much damage? Are we in a bull market or a bear market? Is our recovery solid, or not? What about the housing market? What about unemployment? What about the deficit? What about taxes? What about Europe? What about China? What about terrorism? Where are our troops deployed, and for how long? What about North Korea? What about Iran? Are we going to have a double-dip recession? How long will the recovery take? What's going on with gold? Will our energy policy change? Will there be less drilling? Less oil? Will we use more natural gas? What about ethynol? Will the auto industry continue to rebound? What will happen when/if gas hits $4/gallon, as some say it might in the next year or two? Is there a risk of inflation... or deflation? Are interest rates going to increase anytime soon? Is there going to be a killer flu in the not-too-distant future? Where should we invest our money? Is our government broken?
Tony, we all need more stability and clarity, IMO, than we currently have. We are overloaded with too many doubts and concerns, which leads to too much fear, which further leads to a lack of investor confidence. Without that confidence, and with too much confusion, we are left with too much volatility... leaving the market without genuine upward long-term momentum.
That sure is a good list of worries, and I just hope they don`t all come to `roost` at one time or we are doomed....Of course normally a few of these concerns are addressed at a point, and we move on to the next batch......I think if a person were to look back, and remember where we were a year or so ago, that was the time to genuinely be afraid, I mean scared....Things are systemically way sounder now, but this is no fun to have to be concerned , and we might revert to a different calamity that is not really apparent right now ....
I don`tknow about you guys, but when I use to visit the beach, before all the environmental concerns, regularly oil blobs washed up on the beach, and we all by accident stepped in or got oil on ourselves swimming....What we did was amuse ourselves differently and didn`t go to the beach......Many many millions of people are going to react the same way today, and I think it will affect our economy in a more bold way than is projected.....Even I , who knows nothing about an oil gusher, knows that the amount of oil gushing from a pipe of that size is way more than what has been said so far, and that is oil that is in the water right now....To my eye what is still gushing looks like about what has been gushing for the last month and a half.....Mark my words---this is terrible for us as a nation----and the `piper hasn`t been paid` Tony
that a long-term investment in the context of this board means something on the order of 21 days. . .from completely out to completely in to 50% out with an option to drop the rest any minute now.
that a long-term investment in the context of this board means something on the order of 21 days. . .from completely out to completely in to 50% out with an option to drop the rest any minute now.
that a long-term investment in the context of this board means something on the order of 21 days. . .from completely out to completely in to 50% out with an option to drop the rest any minute now.
Interesting, to say the least.
LOL... that's funny. But deserves a response.
Everyone on this board has a genuine long-term portfolio that has been fully invested for the most part for a very long time... myself included, and I can give you examples for almost every single member.
Now, speaking only for myself, I have the majority of my investments in long-term fixed and managed securities... it's been in place for over TWO DECADES, with only minor adjustments that have been required as some securities matured and required replacement.
I think it is safe to say that over TWO DECADES is long term.
Now, that said, I also have a completely seperate portfolio that is geared more towards market timing... this is the one I generally post about. And let's be clear that it certainly isn't long-term. By timing the market and making moves in and out of the market, I avoided most of last month's serious losses that typical "long-term" holders certainly must have suffered. So, instead of "getting even" when the market finally rallies again, I will get further ahead. I have repeatedly posted proof of how my timing has been successful.
Unfortunately, at this point, the market is so volatile that it is almost dangerous to try to invest. The current level of risk is extraordinary, IMO.
You are so right when you say to stay strapped in... there are absolutely crazy times ahead for us. The stock market is literally on a wild roller coaster ride, and has been on one for quite some time... but now we are facing huge volatility and major global uncertainty mixed with both positive and negative fundamentals all at the same time.
Not only are our brains irrational, but our behavior is easily predicted by wolves on Wall Street, who are only too eager to lead us sheep to the slaughterhouse.
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Yes, I am mad as hell again. Wall Street's soulless, immoral, greedy bankers really believe that the vast majority of America's 95 million investors are not only predictably irrational but stupid, words Forbes use to sum up the views of a JPMorgan Chase investment officer a while back.
Worse, Main Street investors are losers for continuing to trust Wall Street after it lost 20% of our retirement money in the last decade.
Now, worst of all, Wall Street's traders have profiled Main Street investors in their algorithms: Yes, investors are predictably stupid losers, what con artists call a "mark," a dumb gambler who can be easily coaxed out of his money.
Why so blunt? Listen: Recently I explained why the Wall Street banks must kill financial reform to preserve their multibillion dollar bonus pool. One reader commented: "I worked at the Bear Stearns . . . every word written here is true. Fact is, bankers regard themselves as wolves and the public as prey, and speak about it openly among themselves." Then he added a sucker punch: "What is extraordinary to me is how willingly the sheep submit to this."
See what a better broker can do for you
Yes, folks, Wall Street is certain that America's 95 million investors are clueless sheep headed for the slaughterhouse.
But wait, that's not news. Twenty years ago, former bond trader Michael Lewis' "Liar's Poker" described the insanity of our addiction to gambling in a few memorable lines: "Men on the trading floor may not have been to school but they have Ph.D.s in man's ignorance." They know that "in any market, as in any poker game, there is a fool. The astute investor Warren Buffett is fond of saying that any player unaware of the fool in the market probably is the fool in the market."
And, as we now know, in the stock market, the vast majority of America's 95 million investors are fools -- predictably stupid losers.
Lewis says traders instinctively know that the more people chasing a trend "the easier it was for them to delude themselves that what they were doing must be smart. The first thing you learn on the trading floor is that when large numbers of people are after the same commodity, be it a stock, a bond or a job, the commodity quickly becomes overvalued," making it easy for traders to generate hundred-million-dollar-profit days.
Sorry, but that's exactly how Wall Street sees you: predictably stupid losers. What else could a rational person conclude?
So you ask: What triggered this rant? Simple: A new book, "The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home," by Dan Ariely, the brilliant Duke University behavioral economist who earlier wrote the one book whose title alone tells you all you'll ever need to know about behavioral economics. Answer: You are "Predictably Irrational." Period.
I feel sorry for the people who read books on behavioral economics. Why? Because most are written by brilliant academicians and top journalists, not callous, greedy Wall Street traders who'd never divulge their secrets. But that's no excuse. These books are all filled with misleading pop-psychology nonsense based on a simple premise: If you just buy these books and apply their advice, you can change the way you think, become less irrational and be a better investor, even beat Wall Street. Wrong.
Never read another behavioral economics book . . . ever. They're based on the same misleading assumption that you can make your brain less irrational and win at Wall Street's casino. Never happen in a million years. Never.
Wall Street's already programmed your psychological profile into their trading algorithms. They're light-years ahead of you, misleading you into their slaughterhouses and casinos.
Why such a strong warning? Remember, these books were built on the original research of Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Economics Prize for his work in behavioral economics. Moreover, most of them were published before Wall Street's meltdown a couple years ago. And still Main Street investors lost trillions of retirement money.
Get it? Reading books on behavioral economics not only didn't help, it probably gave you a false sense of security that made you even more vulnerable to Wall Street's con game -- and given its current $400 million lobbying effort to kill financial reforms, you can bet another meltdown is destined to happen again, soon.
Admit it, investors are sheep, fools, predictably stupid losers.
So what's the only thing you need to know about behavioral economics? Begin with the fact that you are predictably irrational. You can be manipulated without ever knowing it. Wall Street knows your brain is your worst enemy, that much of your behavior is driven by the subconscious biases you cannot change. The fact is, Wall Street does not want intelligent investors who think.
So read all you want, see all the shrinks you want, trade all you want, nothing will save you. Wall Street's wolves already have your profile in their trading algorithms. They'll always be light-years ahead of you.
And finally, in spite of all their claims of professionalism, neuroeconomists, perhaps more than other economists, are political animals. As BusinessWeek put it, "the rap on economists, only somewhat exaggerated, is that they are overconfident, unrealistic and political. They claim a precision that neither their raw material nor their skill warrants. Too many assume that people behave like the mythical [non-permissible content removed] economicus, who is hyperrational and omniscient."
The fact is, neuroeconomists are political mercenaries who can "prove" any scenario.
Worse, our political leaders are also becoming predictably stupid losers.
Reminds me of former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan's congressional testimony admitting that free market, trickle-down Reaganomics failed America: Greenspan admitted he made a "mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and equity."
There was "a flaw in the model . . . that defines how the world works," Greenspan said. "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief," he told Congress. Unregulated markets "held sway for decades" . . . then "the whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed."
And it'll get worse, thanks to current Fed chief Ben Bernanke, President Barack Obama and Goldman Sachs' (GS, news, msgs) lobbyists. Greenspan's deeply flawed Reaganomics remains anchored deep in America's brain and DNA. So every promise made in every behavioral economics book ever written about the principles originally defined by Kahneman will continue to mislead America's 95 million Main Street investors . . . and fail.
Why? Because the insatiable greed driving the Goldman Conspiracy of Wall Street banks is so addictive, so powerful, so overwhelming, so much in control of the political process that nothing, absolutely nothing, can change the next inevitable mega-crash dead ahead.
My take on this? Same as always. Long-term investing is fine, but not for equities. Equities are best traded short-term, taking gains at every opportunity. Long-term equity trading is almost always a losing proposition. To this day, most long-term investors are perpetually trying to "get even" from the last time they got burned. Once in a great while, someone like Charlie avoids the catastrophie. That's so rare. All too often the long-term equity investors eventually get slaughtered, and then try to "get even". And then, they defend their own losing, compromised, or diluted situation... still embracing their misguided belief that they are doing the right thing.
We have one stock we hold for sentimental value. Hershey has been in my wife's family since the 50's and some was passed down to her. It goes up, it goes down, we sold some here and there for a couple of down payments, purchased some more, and we've taken the dividend and reinvested the dividend at different times.
Isn't human nature grand? About as logical as the dart board. :shades:
I have been alluding to this for quit some time.....We have to think for ourselves, and at this junction stocks are a poor buy and hold, unless you have done your homework, and are able to stay the whole way....Fold when your homework is flawed, call when it isn`t......and be willing to admit when we are wrong.....It is a bit disheartening imo.....
On a brighter note , it looks to me like the leakage is quite a bit better, although alot is still flowing.....I saw some hope on tv with the organisms that eat oil...They looked very robust, so maybe someone will put them into the cleanup effort.....That is if what I saw aren not some horrible germ that will get us too ...
AFAIC, this market isn't crazy. Debt runs amok. When the debt burden eases the market responds inkind. They can not just sweep bad debt and bad bets on that debt under the accounting rug....one day, it is written off against profits.
The market is just a mirror.
This will take a long time but the short cut is to stimulate demand by creating a market space for growth.
One day the market rallies, and there are reasons for it. The next day the same market falls apart, and there are reasons for it. The next day is seems steady, but at the last hour it sells off huge. Then it sells off again, and we can clearly see why the volatility index is at an all time high.
Everyone on this board has a genuine long-term portfolio that has been fully invested for the most part for a very long time... myself included, and I can give you examples for almost every single member.
Good to know. I guess that stuff is just to boring to even discuss, much like most of my investments.
Maybe what we have here is the Penthouse Forum of investing. Much more interesting than real life, but. . .
No surprise at all. The employment data came out this morning with a little positive news and the market exploded.
No way to know that it will hold, but that kind of data is exactly the injection that the market needs. I posted this a couple days ago... that with ALL the different issues going on, it ultimately boils down to jobs at this point in time.
One day the market rallies, and there are reasons for it. The next day the same market falls apart, and there are reasons for it. The next day is seems steady, but at the last hour it sells off huge. Then it sells off again, and we can clearly see why the volatility index is at an all time high.
In reality, what's the mirror reflecting?
What cracks me up is that the media tries to make it look like they understand why the market behaves the way it does:
"Market up sharply on jobs report" "Market drops after oil spill containment fails".
My putting two items together, they imply there is a connection. Take the first example above, if the market had gone DOWN on the day of the jobs report, the headline would have been "Market down as Bernanke warns Congress". :P
My headline for today's rise is:
"Market rises above 10,000 as BP agrees to expedite oil spill payments". :P
This was indeed a wonderful day for stocks. Here are a couple of stories. They point in the direction of a slow, continued recovery. They also suggest that the U.S. economic recovery along with Chinese trade data overwhelming the Eurozone debt problems. My "simplistic" contention all along has been that the market will eventually sidestep the European problems due to good news from the U.S. economy. As I stated on a post the other night, Bernanke took the words out of my mouth on his speech a couple nights ago.
06/10 15:03 CDT Jobless claims, exports fall in sluggish recovery
Jobless claims, exports fall in sluggish recovery
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The picture of a steady but still sluggish recovery emerged from reports Thursday that showed fewer people are claiming unemployment aid while U.S. exports are slowing.
The reports echo Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's suggestion this week that the rebound will remain intact despite high unemployment, a fragile housing market and Europe's debt crisis. But it will take time to create enough jobs to bring down the 9.7 percent unemployment rate.
Initial unemployment claims fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 456,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the third straight drop. However, claims haven't moved below where they stood in January.
06/10 14:46 CDT Stocks surge on US jobs data, China trade growth
Stocks surge on US jobs data, China trade growth
By STEPHEN BERNARD and TIM PARADIS AP Business Writers
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks surged Thursday after reports on the U.S. job market and Chinese exports lifted anxiety about the global economic recovery.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 255 points in late afternoon trading. All the major indexes climbed more than 2.5 percent. Falling Treasury prices pushed interest rates higher after demand for safe investments eased.
Energy stocks led the market higher after sliding in the final hour of trading Wednesday on concerns that BP would be forced to cut its dividend because of fallout from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. BP rose 11.3 percent off of a 14-year low, while Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which has a minority stake in the rig that caused the spill, rose 10.1 percent.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 2.8 percent to its lowest level in a year following news reports that it was target of another investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC has already filed civil fraud charges against the company.
Investors have pounded stocks for more than a month because of concerns that Europe's sovereign debt crisis would slow a rebound worldwide. Thursday's climb was the latest swing in market that has been volatile for weeks, including three late-day slides in the past four days. Some of the advance could be coming from what's known as "short-covering." That's when traders are forced to buy stock after having earlier sold borrowed shares in a bet that the market would fall. The moves can add to the market's climb.
Markets around the world rose after China said exports rose 48.5 percent in May, while imports jumped 48.3 percent. The increase in trade provides some relief to fears that debt problems in Europe would halt a global economic recovery. The 27-nation European Union is China's largest trading partner. China has said it wanted to cool its economy to keep it from getting overheated and forming speculative bubbles. Traders had grown concerned that China would inadvertently slow growth too much and hurt a global rebound.
I tend to agree with Bernanke quite a bit, and most of the time.
I am however still very concerned with the tax hikes that are about to explode upon all of us in 2011, and what they will do to the economy next year. No one has done anything to address this looming problem, and that concerns me and also pisses me off, to put it bluntly.
Huge debt around the world, fear of low growth...all the rest. Call it what you want.
Today the market reflects optimism. Not unlike all of us. We have good days and feel great, we have bad days and feel not so great.
The underlying fundamentals which hold the market back (huge debt) and the underlying growth potential reflect the up/down of the moment but I believe the trend will be up in the long run.
Comments
I will just send Bill a check out of the kindness of my heart !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
It’s basically incredible that this is happening with unemployment in the euro area still rising, and only slight labor market progress in the US.
...
The right thing, overwhelmingly, is to do things that will reduce spending and/or raise revenue after the economy has recovered — specifically, wait until after the economy is strong enough that monetary policy can offset the contractionary effects of fiscal austerity. But no: the deficit hawks want their cuts while unemployment rates are still at near-record highs and monetary policy is still hard up against the zero bound.
...
Utter folly posing as wisdom. Incredible.
Lost Decade, Here We Come
Regards,
OW
Hope your son has a good job... LOL. And lots of patience!
Seriously, that's a blessing for your son and his wife, and you and your wife are so fortunate to be there. I have no doubt that you wish all of you were living closer together, so you could see those twins grow up on a more regular basis.
.................................................
Oil disaster?... I cannot put into words how deeply disturbed I feel by this. And now... I am even more concerned about what lessons will (or won't) be learned from this.
The business of energy seems to offer us a sad history. Almost ALL of our natural rivers are damned up, coal mining has been a disaster of its own, we were very close to a "China Syndrome" at Three-Mile Island , Chernobyl was a catastrophie beyond description, Exxon sure put the hurt on Alaska, and now THIS. And these are just the ones that come to mind, because there have been many other oil spills and oil rig incidents.
This particular event is one of the the worst environmental disasters EVER... at least so far... and I say "so far" because the attitude that I have seen regarding this tragedy is pathetic. It shows us that we are in a sad state of affairs, which boils down to the scary realization that we are all still very ripe for even worse.
And, these tragedies are not just regarding the energy business. IIRC, Dow chemical had a terrible accident in India... and I have seen some documentaries on the toxic waste in Africa, as well as the strip mining, destruction of rain forests, and toxic pollution beyond imagination.
To be fair, I believe it is somewhat expected that there will be tragic events along the path of progress to the future... sort of a "learning curve"... but it is imperative that the lessons are actually learned from those tragedies. Otherwise, they are all in vain.
In a twisted and sinister sort of way, environmentalists could be blamed for this disaster... that they have been the cause for the oil drilling to be pushed off-shore... but the real blame is that we are not truly focused in any substantial way on transitioning ourselves away from oil. Not only do we need a better energy policy and energy alternatives, but we need energy independence. There are much better, plentiful and safer means to provide energy. The deeper problem is that those alternatives haven't been financially attractive to those powerful folks that are "in control". I hate to consider, "What's next?"
It all gets down to MONEY, POWER, GREED.
Our economy went into a meltdown crisis mode for the SAME reasons.
How much more damage to the planet and our society (and others) do we need to endure before people truly wake up? We need to take back our country and start taking the high road in all that we do.
TM
You cannot imagine how frustrating it is for my wife and I to be SO far away from both our kids and grandkids. After all, even Detroit is not a hop, skip, and a jump from central IA. But even though distance is a problem, we are still very blessed.
How much more damage to the planet and our society (and others) do we need to endure before people truly wake up? We need to take back our country and start taking the high road in all that we do.
I'll drink to that! The optimist in me says that this time something positive will finally emerge out of this monumental environmental catastrophe. I agree that the ultimate solution is to be free from oil dependence for our energy needs.
What needs to be upgraded is MSFT's stock price and a little dividend bump would be nice too. :-)
I was in Anchorage during the Exxon Valdez and saw oil under the shale on the beach as recently as 2005 out east of Seward on a kayaking trip. Monumental environmental catastrophe, but nothing much has changed since. That was oil drilled from "land" too. :sick:
I have shifted some of my stocks around... mostly sold those that I don't see as much upside for a while. Since those particular stocks have either provided me a gain, or are near even at this point, I think it is a smart move... given the nature of this market.
I am getting ready for the possibility of more downside, and if it comes, I will buy back the stocks I just sold at a better price. Also, I cut in half my exposure in the financials, such as Bank of America, Citi, and General Electric. I still hold a lot of these shares, so don't misunderstand... I am still holding these stocks, but again, I want to position myself in the event of more downside, before buying more.
If there is an upside swing, I am still holding a hefty amount of stocks to profit from that.
I feel that I have a decent balance here, so that I can buy if the market tanks, and I can benefit if it rallies.
All that said, I have not sold any of my positions in Apple, Sprint, General Mills, and Vodaphone.
Overall, I am still waaaay ahead of where I would have been if I had not been timing the market, selling on the highs, and buying on the dips. I consider my action today as just another strategic move to take advantage of this crazy volatility.
Did I say crazy volatility? Maybe I should have said insane volatility.
TM
The elements that drive stock market players, entrepreneurs, & other independent businessmen.
"
those powerful folks that are "in control".
Remember, those "in control" earned their ranks as Captains of Industry so they are to be honored for their achieving the same goals other "little guys" attempt.
Honored? That depends more upon what they DO with that power and control, not just the fact that they achieved it.
Corruption does not deserve to be honored.
In the Spiderman movie, Spiderman's father so correctly said,
"With great power comes great responsibility."
TM
Being born into money and making more money is not a trait deserving of respect.
Many of those people you blindly claim should be "honored" deserve to be sent to a gallows or guillotine. They play a huge part in nearly every problem in society. Examine who pulls the strings of government and economics no matter who is in office.Take a look at the world outside of methland Clark County...the majority of these guys aren't ethical honorable people.
Being born into money and making more money is not a trait deserving of respect ....fintail
The offspring are to be admired for using their inheritance to expand the family business and providing employment to many other Puget Sound residents.
Never said otherwise, nor would I think to.
That said, there are waaaaaaay too many individuals that are in positions of power that are indeed crooks.
TM
Many of those people you [you = euphonium] blindly claim should be "honored" deserve to be sent to a gallows or guillotine. They play a huge part in nearly every problem in society. Examine who pulls the strings of government and economics no matter who is in office.Take a look at the world outside of methland Clark County...the majority of these guys aren't ethical honorable people.
I'd have to call that a good post.
TM
I don't want to completely get out of the market, at least not yet, because I think there are still some reasons we could see a rally.
But, this is a very unpredictable and unhealthy market, and at the end of the day, I will place preservation of capital ahead of excessive risk, as I have already proven with my track record.
TM
I don't thinkg Citi's poor performance is very specific to Citi, but rather the financial sector as a whole, which seems to be under pressure. As you know, I cut my Citi holdings down considerably this morning before the drop in value, and I have other financial holdings as well, which I thankfully also cut down in size before the price drop. I am going to wait a little longer see if the sector rebounds, but the mess we are in suggests otherwise.
Any action I take with regards to the financial sector will include Citi... no special favors for the big C this time around.
With regards to AAPL... I am not as impressed with the new iPhone 4 as I am with the newly released HTC Evo 4G (carried by Sprint). That said, I have no doubt that the global market will flock to the iPhone 4.
The HTC Evo 4G has been described as the most powerful handheld in the world... many of its specifications decidedly trump the new iPhone 4, but it doesn't have Steve Jobs hyping it. Regardless, the HTC Evo 4G is nothing short of awesome, and I have decided that I am going to buy it later this week.
TM
“The more successful, visible or powerful you become, the more you will be negatively gossiped about. Success breeds envy and envy breeds the desire to destroy what is envied.”
It was your other post that I disagreed with.
TM
Are they identical twins? First grandkids for you? Anyway my heartfelt congratulations and best wishes to you and your family.
Tag - d'ont want you to have a heart attack about this beacuse this one is going to jolt you. It's about 6 months away but it could happen much sooner. The G lease ends this month. June 30th actually. I'm then going to take my mothers Camry which runs to end of year as a third car (her driving days are over). When that lease ends the next car in my garage will almost certainly be - again hang in there for this one - an Audi A4 with Nav. There's someone who wants me to inquire about buying out the Camry lease early as my mothers car has real low mileage on it. If that happens the whole timeline moves up.
A4? Nice car! I have nothing but praise for that car.
Well... I guess I should say that an S4 would be even nicer...
Now that I've dropped that little hint... tell me how you came to this decision.
BTW, the lease deals here in Southern California are pretty good on the Audi A4. $429/month or $459/month on the quattro. (both are 36 mos,)
TM
The G lease ends this month. June 30th actually. I'm then going to take my mothers Camry which runs to end of year as a third car (her driving days are over). When that lease ends the next car in my garage will almost certainly be - again hang in there for this one - an Audi A4 with Nav.
Wow! All I can say is that you are quite flexible.
I like what Bernanke had to say this evening when he spoke to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The market liked it as well since the S & P futures are up 8 points as of this writing after another crappy day today. Here are some of the important remarks on this story:
"My best guess is we will have a continued recovery, but it won't feel
terrific," Bernanke said.
That's because economic growth won't be robust enough to quickly drive down the
unemployment rate, now at 9.7 percent, he said in remarks to the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars, a nonpartisan research group.
The economy grew at a 3 percent pace in the first quarter of this year. That's
good growth during normal times. But coming out of such a deep recession, the
economy must grow much more strongly to make a dent in the jobless rate.
Fears have grown that the recovery could be derailed if Europe's debt crisis
turns into a broader financial contagion, crimping lending in the United States
and around the globe. The situation has spooked investors, sending Wall Street
into fits of panic.
Bernanke said the Fed is monitoring the European crisis carefully, and he
believes European leaders are taking the right steps to deal with the problems.
Asked when the Fed will start raising interest rates, Bernanke quipped "in the
future."
The Fed has pledged to hold rates at record lows to nurture the recovery. A
growing number of economists now believe the Fed won't start to boost rates
until next year given the European crisis and high unemployment.
I've got a gut feeling that we need to see some better employment numbers before the market is really going to take off. Sure, I agree with Tony's suggestion that solving the oil problem in the Gulf will help... but that's a short term boost.
European stability would help and some better housing data wouldn't hurt either... but IMO, it's really all about more jobs at this point. That's the kind of data that will turn the market around and keep it pointed in the right direction.
TM
Regardless, I am of the opinion that we will NOT see a double dip. If I did, I would have said "bye-bye" to all my stocks just as I did back in the summer of 2008.
That was brilliant, back in '08... absolutely brilliant!
But I am curious what makes you so confident that we won't see a double dip recession this time around?
TM
The interest on the investments continues to roll in every month, but I think the oil disaster is way bigger than we understand at this time, therefore our recovery is going to be hurt.....All around me people are at work and progress is impressive compared to a year ago....Unfortunately the stock market shot up way too fast, so we are paying the price now, in the stock market.......Everything else is moving forward...
These uncertainties get magnified by the Wall Street crowd (brokers) therefore the commission churn is profitable to them, and they use` it`......The big money is the program computer stuff that whipsaws all but the few, and the manipulation that goes on with the short selling or margin buying in huge amounts---remember my post about my own account----So I guess we have to adapt to this stuff until the regulators start to do their jobs.......I had great hope for the SEC (Mary Schapiro) but alas I have not been impressed so far..
My opinion of Obama is still that I like him, but am discouraged in some ways with what has been accomplished....As for his handling of the oil crisis, I just put myself in his shoes, and as I know nothing , I would assume he knew nothing, therefore he is fine in my book....I mean just what can be done that BP isn`t trying to do? When this plays out, and the oil is contained, I think we will again realize that the economy is way better than it was, and the market will have a surge......There is a good writeup in the Washington Post about a little town in Miss. and the impact on a few people......Tony
Tag,
I sometimes get too simplistic for my own good. But to put it simply, I have a lot of faith on the overall U.S. economy. It will continue to make strides (although slowly). THIS is the major reason why I do not believe there will be a double dip. Basically, Mr. Bernanke took the words out of my mouth last night.
As far as the oil spill disaster is concerned, I obviously agree that it is a monumental environmental disaster, but I do not believe it will have that much impact on the overall U.S. economy. In this regard, I am not as concerned as Tony and you seem to be about its impact on the economy.
BTW, I have been playing around (going back and forth) with 25 shares of AAPL stock. I had bought 25 shares down around $239, sold at $264 and bought again this morning at $246. Evidently, the stock was down today due to some sort of a glitch on the launch of the new iPhone yesterday. Babysitting duties have prevented me from paying too much attention to the news. I obviously own a lot more shares of AAPL from various price points, but it has been fun to "scalp" with 25 shares.
There's no doubt things are kind of fuzzy at this point in time. It's just not very clear as to what is the genuine state of affairs in many different areas... It leaves us with lots of questions...
What's the REAL situation in the Gulf?
How long will it take to clean it up?
How much damage?
Are we in a bull market or a bear market?
Is our recovery solid, or not?
What about the housing market?
What about unemployment?
What about the deficit?
What about taxes?
What about Europe?
What about China?
What about terrorism?
Where are our troops deployed, and for how long?
What about North Korea?
What about Iran?
Are we going to have a double-dip recession?
How long will the recovery take?
What's going on with gold?
Will our energy policy change?
Will there be less drilling?
Less oil?
Will we use more natural gas?
What about ethynol?
Will the auto industry continue to rebound?
What will happen when/if gas hits $4/gallon, as some say it might in the next year or two?
Is there a risk of inflation... or deflation?
Are interest rates going to increase anytime soon?
Is there going to be a killer flu in the not-too-distant future?
Where should we invest our money?
Is our government broken?
Tony, we all need more stability and clarity, IMO, than we currently have. We are overloaded with too many doubts and concerns, which leads to too much fear, which further leads to a lack of investor confidence. Without that confidence, and with too much confusion, we are left with too much volatility... leaving the market without genuine upward long-term momentum.
TM
That sure is a good list of worries, and I just hope they don`t all come to `roost` at one time
I don`tknow about you guys, but when I use to visit the beach, before all the environmental concerns, regularly oil blobs washed up on the beach, and we all by accident stepped in or got oil on ourselves swimming....What we did was amuse ourselves differently and didn`t go to the beach......Many many millions of people are going to react the same way today, and I think it will affect our economy in a more bold way than is projected.....Even I , who knows nothing about an oil gusher, knows that the amount of oil gushing from a pipe of that size is way more than what has been said so far, and that is oil that is in the water right now....To my eye what is still gushing looks like about what has been gushing for the last month and a half.....Mark my words---this is terrible for us as a nation----and the `piper hasn`t been paid` Tony
Terrible indeed.
TM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VfypUzx1tI&feature=youtube_gdata
Interesting, to say the least.
Stay strapped in -- whiplash can hurt.
Interesting, to say the least.
Stay strapped in -- whiplash can hurt.
Great post cdn!
Interesting, to say the least.
LOL... that's funny. But deserves a response.
Everyone on this board has a genuine long-term portfolio that has been fully invested for the most part for a very long time... myself included, and I can give you examples for almost every single member.
Now, speaking only for myself, I have the majority of my investments in long-term fixed and managed securities... it's been in place for over TWO DECADES, with only minor adjustments that have been required as some securities matured and required replacement.
I think it is safe to say that over TWO DECADES is long term.
Now, that said, I also have a completely seperate portfolio that is geared more towards market timing... this is the one I generally post about. And let's be clear that it certainly isn't long-term. By timing the market and making moves in and out of the market, I avoided most of last month's serious losses that typical "long-term" holders certainly must have suffered. So, instead of "getting even" when the market finally rallies again, I will get further ahead. I have repeatedly posted proof of how my timing has been successful.
Unfortunately, at this point, the market is so volatile that it is almost dangerous to try to invest. The current level of risk is extraordinary, IMO.
You are so right when you say to stay strapped in... there are absolutely crazy times ahead for us. The stock market is literally on a wild roller coaster ride, and has been on one for quite some time... but now we are facing huge volatility and major global uncertainty mixed with both positive and negative fundamentals all at the same time.
If this market isn't crazy, I don't know what is.
Your whiplash warning is appropriate.
TM
American investors: Predictably stupid
Not only are our brains irrational, but our behavior is easily predicted by wolves on Wall Street, who are only too eager to lead us sheep to the slaughterhouse.
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Yes, I am mad as hell again. Wall Street's soulless, immoral, greedy bankers really believe that the vast majority of America's 95 million investors are not only predictably irrational but stupid, words Forbes use to sum up the views of a JPMorgan Chase investment officer a while back.
Worse, Main Street investors are losers for continuing to trust Wall Street after it lost 20% of our retirement money in the last decade.
Now, worst of all, Wall Street's traders have profiled Main Street investors in their algorithms: Yes, investors are predictably stupid losers, what con artists call a "mark," a dumb gambler who can be easily coaxed out of his money.
Why so blunt? Listen: Recently I explained why the Wall Street banks must kill financial reform to preserve their multibillion dollar bonus pool. One reader commented: "I worked at the Bear Stearns . . . every word written here is true. Fact is, bankers regard themselves as wolves and the public as prey, and speak about it openly among themselves." Then he added a sucker punch: "What is extraordinary to me is how willingly the sheep submit to this."
See what a better broker can do for you
Yes, folks, Wall Street is certain that America's 95 million investors are clueless sheep headed for the slaughterhouse.
But wait, that's not news. Twenty years ago, former bond trader Michael Lewis' "Liar's Poker" described the insanity of our addiction to gambling in a few memorable lines: "Men on the trading floor may not have been to school but they have Ph.D.s in man's ignorance." They know that "in any market, as in any poker game, there is a fool. The astute investor Warren Buffett is fond of saying that any player unaware of the fool in the market probably is the fool in the market."
And, as we now know, in the stock market, the vast majority of America's 95 million investors are fools -- predictably stupid losers.
Lewis says traders instinctively know that the more people chasing a trend "the easier it was for them to delude themselves that what they were doing must be smart. The first thing you learn on the trading floor is that when large numbers of people are after the same commodity, be it a stock, a bond or a job, the commodity quickly becomes overvalued," making it easy for traders to generate hundred-million-dollar-profit days.
Sorry, but that's exactly how Wall Street sees you: predictably stupid losers. What else could a rational person conclude?
So you ask: What triggered this rant? Simple: A new book, "The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home," by Dan Ariely, the brilliant Duke University behavioral economist who earlier wrote the one book whose title alone tells you all you'll ever need to know about behavioral economics. Answer: You are "Predictably Irrational." Period.
I feel sorry for the people who read books on behavioral economics. Why? Because most are written by brilliant academicians and top journalists, not callous, greedy Wall Street traders who'd never divulge their secrets. But that's no excuse. These books are all filled with misleading pop-psychology nonsense based on a simple premise: If you just buy these books and apply their advice, you can change the way you think, become less irrational and be a better investor, even beat Wall Street. Wrong.
Never read another behavioral economics book . . . ever. They're based on the same misleading assumption that you can make your brain less irrational and win at Wall Street's casino. Never happen in a million years. Never.
Wall Street's already programmed your psychological profile into their trading algorithms. They're light-years ahead of you, misleading you into their slaughterhouses and casinos.
Why such a strong warning? Remember, these books were built on the original research of Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Economics Prize for his work in behavioral economics. Moreover, most of them were published before Wall Street's meltdown a couple years ago. And still Main Street investors lost trillions of retirement money.
Get it? Reading books on behavioral economics not only didn't help, it probably gave you a false sense of security that made you even more vulnerable to Wall Street's con game -- and given its current $400 million lobbying effort to kill financial reforms, you can bet another meltdown is destined to happen again, soon.
Admit it, investors are sheep, fools, predictably stupid losers.
So what's the only thing you need to know about behavioral economics? Begin with the fact that you are predictably irrational. You can be manipulated without ever knowing it. Wall Street knows your brain is your worst enemy, that much of your behavior is driven by the subconscious biases you cannot change. The fact is, Wall Street does not want intelligent investors who think.
So read all you want, see all the shrinks you want, trade all you want, nothing will save you. Wall Street's wolves already have your profile in their trading algorithms. They'll always be light-years ahead of you.
continued...
And finally, in spite of all their claims of professionalism, neuroeconomists, perhaps more than other economists, are political animals. As BusinessWeek put it, "the rap on economists, only somewhat exaggerated, is that they are overconfident, unrealistic and political. They claim a precision that neither their raw material nor their skill warrants. Too many assume that people behave like the mythical [non-permissible content removed] economicus, who is hyperrational and omniscient."
The fact is, neuroeconomists are political mercenaries who can "prove" any scenario.
Worse, our political leaders are also becoming predictably stupid losers.
Reminds me of former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan's congressional testimony admitting that free market, trickle-down Reaganomics failed America: Greenspan admitted he made a "mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and equity."
There was "a flaw in the model . . . that defines how the world works," Greenspan said. "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief," he told Congress. Unregulated markets "held sway for decades" . . . then "the whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed."
And it'll get worse, thanks to current Fed chief Ben Bernanke, President Barack Obama and Goldman Sachs' (GS, news, msgs) lobbyists. Greenspan's deeply flawed Reaganomics remains anchored deep in America's brain and DNA. So every promise made in every behavioral economics book ever written about the principles originally defined by Kahneman will continue to mislead America's 95 million Main Street investors . . . and fail.
Why? Because the insatiable greed driving the Goldman Conspiracy of Wall Street banks is so addictive, so powerful, so overwhelming, so much in control of the political process that nothing, absolutely nothing, can change the next inevitable mega-crash dead ahead.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -
My take on this? Same as always. Long-term investing is fine, but not for equities. Equities are best traded short-term, taking gains at every opportunity. Long-term equity trading is almost always a losing proposition. To this day, most long-term investors are perpetually trying to "get even" from the last time they got burned. Once in a great while, someone like Charlie avoids the catastrophie. That's so rare. All too often the long-term equity investors eventually get slaughtered, and then try to "get even". And then, they defend their own losing, compromised, or diluted situation... still embracing their misguided belief that they are doing the right thing.
TM
You are certainly entitled to that opinion, and the best of luck and results in your strategies!
Isn't human nature grand? About as logical as the dart board. :shades:
I have been alluding to this for quit some time.....We have to think for ourselves, and at this junction stocks are a poor buy and hold, unless you have done your homework, and are able to stay the whole way....Fold when your homework is flawed, call when it isn`t......and be willing to admit when we are wrong.....It is a bit disheartening imo.....
On a brighter note , it looks to me like the leakage is quite a bit better, although alot is still flowing.....I saw some hope on tv with the organisms that eat oil...They looked very robust, so maybe someone will put them into the cleanup effort.....That is if what I saw aren not some horrible germ that will get us too
BP looks doomed, Tony
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
The market is just a mirror.
This will take a long time but the short cut is to stimulate demand by creating a market space for growth.
This hasn't happen yet.
Regards,
OW
The market is just a mirror.
Really?...
One day the market rallies, and there are reasons for it. The next day the same market falls apart, and there are reasons for it. The next day is seems steady, but at the last hour it sells off huge. Then it sells off again, and we can clearly see why the volatility index is at an all time high.
In reality, what's the mirror reflecting?
TM
Good to know. I guess that stuff is just to boring to even discuss, much like most of my investments.
Maybe what we have here is the Penthouse Forum of investing. Much more interesting than real life, but. . .
No way to know that it will hold, but that kind of data is exactly the injection that the market needs. I posted this a couple days ago... that with ALL the different issues going on, it ultimately boils down to jobs at this point in time.
Nice way to start the day.
TM
In reality, what's the mirror reflecting?
What cracks me up is that the media tries to make it look like they understand why the market behaves the way it does:
"Market up sharply on jobs report"
"Market drops after oil spill containment fails".
My putting two items together, they imply there is a connection.
Take the first example above, if the market had gone DOWN on the day of the jobs report, the headline would have been "Market down as Bernanke warns Congress". :P
My headline for today's rise is:
"Market rises above 10,000 as BP agrees to expedite oil spill payments". :P
06/10 15:03 CDT Jobless claims, exports fall in sluggish recovery
Jobless claims, exports fall in sluggish recovery
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The picture of a steady but still sluggish recovery emerged
from reports Thursday that showed fewer people are claiming unemployment aid
while U.S. exports are slowing.
The reports echo Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's suggestion this week
that the rebound will remain intact despite high unemployment, a fragile
housing market and Europe's debt crisis. But it will take time to create enough
jobs to bring down the 9.7 percent unemployment rate.
Initial unemployment claims fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 456,000, the
Labor Department said Thursday. That's the third straight drop. However, claims
haven't moved below where they stood in January.
06/10 14:46 CDT Stocks surge on US jobs data, China trade growth
Stocks surge on US jobs data, China trade growth
By STEPHEN BERNARD and TIM PARADIS
AP Business Writers
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks surged Thursday after reports on the U.S. job market
and Chinese exports lifted anxiety about the global economic recovery.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 255 points in late afternoon
trading. All the major indexes climbed more than 2.5 percent. Falling Treasury
prices pushed interest rates higher after demand for safe investments eased.
Energy stocks led the market higher after sliding in the final hour of trading
Wednesday on concerns that BP would be forced to cut its dividend because of
fallout from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. BP rose 11.3 percent off of a
14-year low, while Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which has a minority stake in the
rig that caused the spill, rose 10.1 percent.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 2.8 percent to its lowest level in a year
following news reports that it was target of another investigation by the
Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC has already filed civil fraud
charges against the company.
Investors have pounded stocks for more than a month because of concerns that
Europe's sovereign debt crisis would slow a rebound worldwide. Thursday's climb
was the latest swing in market that has been volatile for weeks, including
three late-day slides in the past four days. Some of the advance could be
coming from what's known as "short-covering." That's when traders are forced to
buy stock after having earlier sold borrowed shares in a bet that the market
would fall. The moves can add to the market's climb.
Markets around the world rose after China said exports rose 48.5 percent in
May, while imports jumped 48.3 percent. The increase in trade provides some
relief to fears that debt problems in Europe would halt a global economic
recovery. The 27-nation European Union is China's largest trading partner.
China has said it wanted to cool its economy to keep it from getting overheated
and forming speculative bubbles. Traders had grown concerned that China would
inadvertently slow growth too much and hurt a global rebound.
Excellent post.
TM
I am however still very concerned with the tax hikes that are about to explode upon all of us in 2011, and what they will do to the economy next year. No one has done anything to address this looming problem, and that concerns me and also pisses me off, to put it bluntly.
TM
Today the market reflects optimism. Not unlike all of us. We have good days and feel great, we have bad days and feel not so great.
The underlying fundamentals which hold the market back (huge debt) and the underlying growth potential reflect the up/down of the moment but I believe the trend will be up in the long run.
Why focus on the daily volatility?
Regards,
OW