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Comments
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
...and thankfully I purchased a lot more shares of equities right before and during the market's recent big gains
I'm well ahead though,
That said, in this crazy world, :confuse: something could happen tomorrow that could change everything.
TM
Yes, the unemployment numbers are definitely a thorn in this market. I suppose, the market will still be seeing lots of volatility, but I think the trend will be slowly upward the next several months. I have been doing very well with the AAPL stock. I have been buying and selling a portion of it numerous times the past few weeks and it has been working (buying on dips and selling on good rallies). I am just holding firm with my other stocks the past several weeks.
What do you think? Do you see us back to at least 11,000 on the Dow by September?
And... I also believe that any major negative news could send the market into a tailspin.
TM
Haven't heard much from most of you lately... so I hope you are all doing well, and enjoying summer.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Excellent from all perspectives... especially the ones that matter most.
TM
TM
LOL... Thank you Tony!
I sure hope Charlie takes a good look at his level of risk. I don't want him to get burned by this market. But he's a smart man... He brilliantly got out before the 2008 meltdown.
How are things at the farm? Are you finished?
TM
As for the `farm` nothing is ever finished down there....just endless....but I enjoy being outdoors and being needed......I find that in this day and time no one really does anything for themselves, but hires most stuff out...In my case what I have been doing , only an owner will do...lol....Tony
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I know that Houdini was only kidding about getting more advance notice... and I'd like to supply him with a calendar of all the up and down days for the rest of the year.
Actually, my post is on record two days ago that I thought the economic recovery may have stalled, and I also warned that it wouldn't take much to send the market into a tailspin.
And, as you know, yesterday I sold most of my stocks and I posted it here for everyone to know. I also mentioned that I didn't do it on a whim. I wouldn't sell so many shares of so many stocks unless I felt very strongly that it was the right "timing".
The bottom line here is that our economy (while better than it was during the crisis) is still very sick and needs to improve. In addition, there is the global situation which needs to stabilize. If / when those things finally happen, we will have a great rally... but until then, it is a dangerous market.
As far as what I will do next... I will buy stocks again when I see an opportunity to make some profits. But quite frankly, I am getting sick of having to get in and out of the market so many times. But, that said, I'm not about to get in and "let it ride" when all that does is lose money. Being in this market requires the willingness and ability to get back out as the market itself dictates. Otherwise, it is a losing proposition, and that begs the question, "Why even bother?"
TM
I'd submit there is significant risk in bonds...but that's just me.
Watch what happens next week.
Happy Independence Day!
Regards,
OW
I'd submit there is significant risk in bonds...but that's just me.
Watch what happens next week.
OW... Frankly, I don't know what you are challenging. :confuse:
For one thing... I never posted anything significant about the risk to bonds, which certainly exists at various times... but the risk to stocks, not bonds, has been quite evident most recently. And, certainly I wouldn't expect you to challenge my "timing" once again, now that there is enough emperical evidence.
Further, I just posted that my next move was to buy stocks, yet again, just as soon as I see a potential for profits... which could be at any time... as I have shown repeatedly.
So... I really don't understand your post at all... what is your point?
TM
I should have been more specific. Sorry about that. It's just that now would be the time a contrarian would make his buys.
Your timing has always been excellent. Just presenting a 180 degree view.
Regards,
OW
Could be.
What do you think? Do you think that today's action was just a dip? A one-day event?
Personally, I'm not so sure. I tend to think that there could be a growing number of investors that are still going to bail out, and as a result we could see the market go lower.
But, my concerns aside, what actually happens is what matters most... and if there is genuine evidence that the market is about to (or begins to) go higher, I'll consider buying once again.
The market presents itself to us. We may not like what we see, but it's still up to us to decide if or how we want to take advantage of it's condition.
TM
I'm on a working holiday hanging out near Taos for a couple of weeks. Traffic is heavy in town, and there are few empty storefronts in the tourist area. There are some sale signs in some of the shops. And a few bums. But it doesn't seem too gloomy all in all.
I don't know how the stimulus money is holding up, but there sure was a lot of road construction between here and Boise on the drive down.
I am glad you recognized my post as being tongue in cheek. You remind me of a guy I have been playing golf with for about 10 years. About 2 years ago he started making almost every putt he looked at. I kept thinking his lucky streak would end soon but it has been 2 years now and he just keeps getting better. It did not take me long to realize that it was not luck, this guy knows what he is doing.
I think the limiting factor with the market right now is jobs, or lack thereof, and I expect more bad news later this week. Please keep sharing your insights.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Please forward a copy to my email address in my profile. Thanks! :P
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Definitely... I kind of wish you and I had understood each other a little better in the earlier days when we posted in the "other" forum... I chalk that up as a lesson learned.
I think the limiting factor with the market right now is jobs, or lack thereof, and I expect more bad news later this week.
I agree 100%... and would also mention that housing is another big obstacle.
That said, I want to post this potentially important point... Last night I was thinking about the market's relationship to the current state of affairs, and I starting seriously considering that the "norm" for unemployment is going to have to shift to the higher side, for a number of definitive reasons, and as a result of this upward shift, the market is going to ultimately acclimate to this new "norm".
In other words, I am starting to think that the market's reaction to higher unemployment will likely be less dramatic and less negative over time... which, if I am correct on this, would ultimately be better for stocks in the future.
TM
Tagman you sure have hit the nail on the head a number of times, so imo you have a fine grasp of the day to day market.....and that probably will carry over into the longer term when that presents itself Congratulation Tony
Agreed !
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Here is the way I see things. Yes, the unemployment figures and housing industry absolutely stink. However, I cannot envision this in the same way as I did back in the summer of 2008 when I was telling everybody to get the hell out of the stock market immediately if not sooner. I do not see huge institutions like Bear Stearns, Merril Lynch, etc. etc., failing in 2010 as they did in 2008. I am still of the opinion that the U.S. economy will hold its own with modest upswings in the next couple years. And, as Tony has often stated in recent weeks, things will look better once that disastrous oil spill is STOPPED. Therefore, I am holding my stocks as I think I will ultimately be OK again in the next 6 months or so. Did I expect this sizable dip to take place from where the market was about 10-15 days ago. NO! But I just do not feel comfortable dumping everything right now. Unless one is like TagMan and he can get in and out on a dime, it is a very difficult thing to do
I'm thinking this is the perfect time to buy actually. The eye of the storm was in Q1- 2 and now that it's past, darkness strikes pure terror into the hearts of the unconditioned trader!
I'll probably be wrong and best bet is to follow TM.
We will see.
There is a lot to be said about the contrarian bug
OW, I always like your posts.
There is little doubt that the market will EVENTUALLY go higher, so it is reasonable enough to buy stocks when they are lower than they were in the past. That is an easy enough move, so go ahead and buy.
But, you say that you are thinking this is the PERFECT time... This? Right now? Sorry, but I disagree with you on that one.
In my opinion, the "perfect" time to buy is when everyone that is going to throw in the towel has thrown in the towel. That's the perfect time... and quite frankly, I'm just not convinced that has happened quite yet.
I want to make it clear that I do not know when I will get back in the market simply because I haven't seen enough reasons to do so, yet. They could present themselves at any time... any week, any day, any second. And, it doesn't require the 'perfect" time to get back in... perhaps a very good time is good enough.
TM
I will be operating in the six digit arena, as I feel strongly that this stock will return at least a 50% return within two to five years or sooner, and might even double or triple.
I do not see any real estate investment or fixed securities investment or any other stock at this point that I feel so strongly about.
Those of you that still own Citi... just be patient... I am still convinced you will be rewarded in the future.
I realize that this is a speculative move, but I am willing to take the risk.
Looking at the rest of the market, I also believe that Ford will prove to be a good investment, and I will probably buy some Ford .
............edit: I have purchased shares of Ford... looking longer term here.
I am less optimistic about Apple than I was previously, and I no longer own the stock, although I am definitely not recommending selling (or buying) Apple.
The market is still very dangerous, and I recommend extreme caution. Any purchases should be with sights set for longer term gains. Can you believe I just said that?
TM
The Future and Investing
Because the world is so unstable and cycles from boom to bust can devastate one’s savings, it is often best to invest in life itself. People need to build up treasures that the economy cannot touch such as relationships, the joy of giving, and becoming a better person. Being rich or poor is simply a state of mind.
Which gold, oil, and economic stock market forecasts and predictions for 2010 will come true? Hopefully only the good ones.
TM, you are the keenest at making high quality predictions...I might check you now and then! Just to keep you sharp!
Regards,
OW
TM
I know you are way too smart to risk the farm, and eventually you will be fine with your investments.
TM
Yes... It's just a matter of time.
TM
Have a great Fourth of July!
TM
From Ryan Ellis on Thursday, July 1, 2010 4:15 PM
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors, small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1, 2011:
Personal income tax rates will rise. The top income tax rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also rise. Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out, which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
Lots more taxes are coming
Be sure and get your exemption card!
I warned about this terrible tax increase recently, and I must tell you that I am outraged by it.
The idiots in the White House and Congress keep saying that they don't know what other ways they can stimulate the economy. What's sad and tragic here is that they truly DON'T know. They are actually stupid enough to raise taxes at a point in time when the economy is holding on by a thread.
One of the smartest things they could do would be to significantly CUT taxes at this point in time.
Our government is broken, AFAIC, and Obama is proving over time to be a terrible president. Add this to his slow reaction to the Gulf disaster. And, just to be clear, I am not saying Bush was any good either... as he was also an idiot.
Don't get me going on our tax policy. It infuriates me. It is beyond belief... idiotic and stupid.
We need a flat tax policy.
TM
I have no doubt that you have life's priorities in the right order.
TM
What is interesting to me is the parallel to the late 1970s. The big difference was interest rates were out of sight. So people were selling their businesses and dumping the money into money market and treasury bills. Making a lot more than was possible running most businesses.
Both situations made worse by inept government.
If only these bastards could cut spending and reign in the greedy public sector union system, tax cuts could be reality.
I see the Euro and Pound have been sharply gaining against the dollar, for no specific reason...more plotting?
United States of America...
A population over 300 million people, overrun by illegal aliens, and governed by a small handful of total idiots and liars making a lot of greedy and idiotic decisions that do not adequately benefit the millions of good people, but instead all-too-often benefit special interest groups.
That is no democracy. That is something else.
The terrorists are wasting their time... The government of the United States of America is already broken... with access granted to the highest bidders and the most influential con men... all of whom are traitors to the original spirit and intent of America.
May she rest in peace, for I loved her so much.
This Fourth of July, let's remember and celebrate the incredible dream called the United States of America.
TM
...and all the women and men who gave their lives to keep it free.
Regards,
OW
1. Some form of term limits.
2. Campaign contributions from individuals ONLY.
3. If a politician is caught taking a bribe or committing any felony a mandatory 10 year prison sentence. In my mind lying through their teeth is a felony.
Hey, it's a start !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
.The thing is that the economy-- as far as my eyes see --is perking along...When all the news media reports is negative stuff it can become self fulling , but not deservedly so.....The political arena is just monopolizing everything, so no one can get a word in edgewise....Talk about overexposed..Miserable...I guess the old saying about going away in May is right for this year....Tony