A lot of data and reports yesterday pointed to a very bad situation, and it was largely reported as such.
Then today, we hear a whole different story.
The difference in the reported perspective was soooo extreme that it would appear we all moved to a totally different world today than the one we lived in yesterday.
The market is schizophrenic!
I sold a large portion of my equities yesterday, based upon the prevailing perspective and reporting, and then comes today.... WHAM! With exception of the stocks I retained, I have otherwise missed out on the rebound today. So... I am sitting here wondering if today's rebound is going to reverse itself, or if I truly missed out.
Suddenly, I feel like I have lost my way with the market. This hasn't happened to me in a very long time. But, nonetheless, it is the truth.
What information and reporting can we believe? :confuse:
Nothing we get from the Federal Government. It is all tainted to extend an agenda. We know for a fact the real Unemployment is closer to 20%. The 9% are those lucky enough to still get UI. Here in CA it is still over 12% reported.
It seems to me that after we get official data from the government, we often get the "revised" report much later on... and that "revised" report is often very different... but by that time, it has little significance.
For example, the government could put out a very favorable jobs report, and the market can rally huge... but the following month, the report could be revised downward, and the market will hardly notice because it is paying closer attention to events that are more current.
And, at the end of the day, both reports are grossly wrong anyway... as you point out, they are flawed at their core.
I am still very interested to see if this rally today has any staying power, or if it sells off. It has definitely declined quite a bit from its high. Frankly, if it sells off, I will feel a LOT better. I think the market truly needs to catch its breath, and if it doesn't do so now, it could take a very big hit later.
There is just so much information, that it is impossible to peace it together as we use to be able to do in years gone past.....You have a very good` sense` of the market, and imo would be a very good investment advisor.....You just believe in yourself, and your integrity, and be forgiving also, and you will again land right back on your feet......Yesterday was probably just the beginning of what you suspected was coming, and it always starts unexpectedly......You know things are manipulated to a degree, as the pools of money are huge, and the emotion of doing stuff without your own money involved is way easier than what you and I and the rest of our board has to go through......Keep the faith Tony
I have watched with amazement as today's huge rally fizzled away until it has become nothing more than a small gain.
But, it does show me that there is a hair-trigger in place for some serious upside at this point. Unfortunately it also shows that there is quite a bit of downward pressure that is still in place as well. With that, I have re-purchased 50% of my previous holdings. More importantly, I am keeping the other 50% in cash until I decide what I will do perhaps next week.
IMO, it's a commodities shake-out. Those guys that bought on margins are losing their shirts and selling everything they can (including equities) to stay afloat. Even the rally couldn't help them, so they sold off the rally. When their problems are over, the market will rebound. The question is when that will happen. So, I am easing myself back into the market carefully.
Incredible!
TM
EDIT: As the market has just closed now, I notice that is has actually moved up slightly from where I bought back in, which I apparently accomplished at the low for the day. I am definitely feeling a ton better than I did at the market's open. Now, we can all wait and see what happens next week.
Now you can relax and cruise around in your Lexus CT. Take a drive along the beach, have lunch in one of the many little restaurants overlooking the water. The best part of living near the ocean. I miss my place down in Rosarito Beach.
IMO, it's a commodities shake-out. Those guys that bought on margins are losing their shirts and selling everything they can (including equities) to stay afloat. Even the rally couldn't help them, so they sold off the rally. When their problems are over, the market will rebound. The question is when that will happen. So, I am easing myself back into the market carefully.
I want to agree completely with this and in my heart I do. The only fly in the ointment is that gas, which is weak and declining in demand every week, and on top of that having a report that China sees weakening auto sales, declined less than oil yesterday and actually rose today. Makes no sense.
When signs point one way, and then the numbers go the opposite... well, just like you said... "makes no sense". There are too many contradictory or opposing indicators going on simultaneously.
Also, there are a lot of serious domestic and global issues happening concurrently. IMO, the current combination of those contradictory indicators and the concurrent issues is creating excessive volatility, and definitely excessive media hype. Then combine all that with yet another mess, specifically those massive margin purchases of silver which resulted in yet another bubble explosion (the likes of which haven't been seen in decades), and the results are obvious to us all... market gyrations that are moving out of sync, and "making no sense".
In the end, I think I will try to follow the lead of the Fed. But, even the Fed has expressed concerns about our Congress's ability (or rather lack of ability) to deal with our national debt, and about the impact of high oil prices.
All we can do is see what's around the corner... and try to deal with it... because so far, for quite some time now, we have been enduring a long, seemingly never-ending onslaught of surprise events, abroad and domestic alike.
From the BP Gulf oil spill to the recent Japanese Earthquake/tsunami and the commodities explosion... and so much that has been in between. Hell... it's getting to be a regular thing.
TM, I don't post much because I am taking the long view. I do not react to daily changes because I could care less.
The long view for me is invest in companies that are fundamentally strong and have inherent value. AAPL is a no brainer as is IBM.
Notice how oil went down and OPEC is also considering adding more supply precisely at a tipping point? How politically savvy of them.
Watch by summer the price of gas will average $4.00 regardless...until the first hint of retaliation from al-Qaeda... and then the advance will continue.
Notice how I've changed from an oil bear to bull! Amazing! I'm tired of getting fried!
"When signs point one way, and then the numbers go the opposite... well, just like you said... "makes no sense". There are too many contradictory or opposing indicators going on simultaneously"
And Tag, it would have to be a good chunk of the commodities market. The silver market is way too small to have the level of effect we saw this week. Bernanke is going to ease off the pedal on some of the money policy when he ends QE2. That was always his trump card against inflation as the dollar would strengthen and commodities would fall. The only way commodities hold up is if real fundamentals are at play. Obviously this is a mighty signal that they are not and that they are likely further out of line than any of us think.
Hello to all my good friends here! I am doing a lot better. The pain has subsided so much that I am no longer taking pain killers.
My in-laws have no internet access. The hotel where my son and his family are staying does but it is very incovenient for me to get there since my wife goes to pick them up and the RX can only take on 5 people. I decided to try my Android phone and this is how I'm posting at this time.
Len, I think you mentioned above that gas has not dropped with the steep oil decline. I assume you mean natural gas. If so, that market has had a mind of its own anyway. When crude soared, nat gas did very little. So I would not place much significance on this.
I will try to keep up to date here. Btw, we had a fabulous time celebrating 3 birthdays yesterday.
You posted on your Android phone. That's how I post much of the time.
In fact, in addition to that, my phone has an additional feature called "Hotspot", which (when I toggle it on) transmits a wi-fi signal. In other words, if I go anywhere where there is no internet access, my phone fixes that. For example, if you visited your family with my phone in your pocket, you could use your iPad to connect to the internet, and your family could connect as well, if they have any wi-fi devices.
My Nook Color can connect to the internet everywhere I go, because my phone's wi-fi gives it access. Sometimes my kids want to download iTunes songs or play YouTube videos on their iPod or MacBoook when we are away from home or in the car. I just turn on my phone's "Hotspot" and they are on the internet.
It's a reason I would really enjoy a MacBook Air. It could access the internet almost everywhere I go, as long as I have my phone with me.
Wow! Who is your internet cell phone provider? Mine is T - Mobile. Is ir possible that I could do the same thing in so called hot spots? I
need to play around with the phone and iPad combination to see if I can make it work.
My son bought the Macbook Pro decked out 15 inch 2.3 at the Apple Store here in St. Louis for $2800 smackers with tax. He is very impressed with it. I did not buy the iPad2 since they did not have the model I wanted.
I switched to Sprint, and have the best rates, unlimited usage, best coverage, 4g (as it gets built in areas), Hotspot, TV, and more.
Hotspot depends upon model of phone. Mine is HTC EVO 4G.
I am going to guess that Apple might be smart enough to add this wi-fi feature to their next iPhone. I hope so... if they don't they will be making a big mistake.
Here is the update: There is no way I can access the Internet by the iPad and my cell phone's wi-fi. So guess what I did? I purchased 25 hours of Internet time through AT &T on my iPad. I had no idea I could do this. So, I can now roam the net and do my work while I'm here. The cost is only $25. I am posting this from the iPad.
Yes my son did scope the iMac out. We were both impressed with it. He needs portability so he had to get the MacBook Pro.
For comparison purposes only, and in case you are interested, Sprint gives UNLIMITED Hotspot wi-fi for $29/month, and can connect up to 16 users for that same fee. And, even though Sprint does not have the iPad in their arsenal. anyone can easily own an iPad or any other portable Apple device with wi-fi connectivity and simply connect to the internet by using the wi-fi service provided by Sprint's Hotspot.
That said, as a result of our conversation, you have now gained some new internet prowess with your iPad. It's good that we help each other out, don't you think?
As far as the iMac goes, I never expected it to be used by your son... I was talking about YOU owning one for your desk, and then using the iPad when you need to go portable. I know that Len has mentioned that he is considering one for his desk, and I am as well... there is little out there that is better, IMO. And, I was wondering if you had a chance to check it out. It offers an amazing amount of features and power for the buck. It may very well be Apple's best (and only) genuine bargain.
Your son will love his new MacBood Pro.
Hey... what's the prediction for the market this upcoming week?
I have a T-Mo Samsung Galaxy (Android) and I can do the mobile hotspot thing too, it is called "Mobile AP" in the "Wireless and Network" part of the "Settings" menu.
I am not ready for a new desktop at this time. It would certainly be nice to own an iMac but the expensive Dell I bought a couple years ago will have to suffice for a while. It has everything I need at this time.
There is no doubt that we are learning from each other on this forum. Had it not been for you indicating that you can connect by using the wi- fi on your phone, I would not have investigated it and find an alternative. And had it not been for me mentioning the CT200h a couple months ago, you would not own one right now .
As for my prediction for the market this week, I am of the opinion that it will be a good week. I believe the gas prices have peaked and will be dropping quite a bit over the next several months and this can only be good news for the consumer. The Dow willrobablt make new hogs this week. I am not sure what to say about our "darling"... AAPL. It should easily reach above $355 and head to $160, but the "powers that are" keep selling into every AAPL rally. One of these days they will get blown out of the water and they won't know what hit them.
I see gold, silver and oil are inching back up. Is the Silver dumping done? My wife and I agree selling our gold is not a good idea with the weak dollar. If the Fed would kick the interest up to where we could get 5% on savings it would make more sense.
I hope Citi did not make a big mistake with their reverse split. AAPL seems to just stay on that $350 plateau. When they split one for ten I will jump in.
I think Citi will be fine with the reverse split. In fact, I am more optimistic on C than ever. Once the banks finally get out of the dumpster, which could still be a while, Citi will roar, IMO. I am very long-term bullish on C, and I totally expect this stock to advance 50% to 100% within two to three years. That's more than good enough for me, and I will NOT sell my Citi shares, unless there is a catastrophe whereby I totally get out of the market altogether.
Regarding gold and silver... I am in gold slightly, but I will not touch any other metals, regardless of potential because they are too volatile for my taste.
After all the market gyrations of last week, I have updated and tweaked, and added positions this morning. I thought it might be interesting to some of you for me to post many of the stocks in my most recent portfolio... FWIW.
Here's a brief rundown on most of them.
Firstly, I want to inform OW that I have finally added IBM to my portfolio. I should have done this a long time back, and now that I am finally doing so, the stock will probably sink like a rock... lol. Anyway, thanks OW. Go IBM!
OK, now I've got that out of the way... Here we go.
ARMH... I added more (I like Apple's announcement to use ARM microprocessor chips in the iPAd). AMZN... I added more (Kindle likely to be in Wal-Mart and I expect a newer version before too long, in addition to their music application, book sales, and the company is awesome). AAPL... I am in BIG (no explanation necessary... patience required). BMY... Small amount (pays dividend, good company to have as a small part of portfolio, IMO). BRK'B... Small amount (good long-term). C... Moderate investment (Huge upside potential, long-term, patience required). CAT... Terrific company. CSCO... Moderate investment (Stock beat to heck recently, should make some nice percentage gains as it should start to recover within a year, company has revised business model). DD... great company. F... love this stock long-term GE... a must-have. GM... Just added it. (It has done almost NOTHING, and their picture seems to get brighter, so I am taking a chance that the stock will advance nicely on a percentage basis within a year provided auto sales stay strong enough). GOOG... A must have. HD... very small amount. HNZ... small investment (solid company, pays dividend). HUWHY... speculative, Chinese, has done VERY well for me. JDSU... roller coaster, but I like it. IBM... finally in my portfolio. Why did I wait so long?... lol. KMB... small investment (solid company, pays dividend). KO... new for me, small amount today (solid enough to try). LLY... small amount (solid company, pays dividend). MCD... moderate investment (solid company, international, has done very well lately). MO... small amount (pays dividend). NVS... moderate amount (pays dividend, has done very well for me). QCOM... small amount (tech stock). T... moderate amount. (Solid. Can't ignore). DUK... small amount (good dividend, and continues to do very well). FDX... moderate amount (solid company, must have). SDRL... moderate amount (excellent dividend, and good returns). S... small investment (can't ignore the potential, has done very well lately, part of the bigger picture). UPS... moderate investment (solid company, must-have). VZ... moderate investment (part of the bigger picture). VOD... large investment (I love this stock, actually owns VZ, is a bigger company than many realize, and I see it as a very good long-term investment). WM... small to moderate (who else is gonna haul away all the trash and recycle it?... lol. Terrific company).
Those are most of them. (I also have some other equities, funds, gold and fixed securities, but that's enough to get started here).
Check them out and please feel free to offer any feedback on any or all of them.
I'll stay on topic here by prefacing my car thoughts with a stock story that will help pay for my dilemma below: In late '89 the division of the company I worked for had an MBO. They later offered all employees who went with the new entity the option (subsidized!) to buy into the new company. I did (shoulda bought more!!!). Fast forward 20 years and a sale has been announced (pending shareholder/regulatory approval, of course). My meager investment will pay off handsomely (shoulda bought more!!! And not as handsomely as some of the astute trading going on around here!), adding a bit of fuel to the, "I want, but don't need, but I'm not getting any younger and I deserve to treat myself once in a Blue Moon to a treat and I spend very little on myself..." new car fire. So, here's what I'm thinking, an eclectic mix, and may sound familiar:
Current ride: Lovely Abyss Blue '05 Acura TL, multiple coats of Zaino Z-2 and Z-5. Additions/replacements:
'08 Jaguar XK, Pearl Gray: Have had a thing for the XK for some time. Test drove last week, CPO. Beautiful car, smooth and quiet ride. Visibility better than expected, not as powerful as expected. But, no deal breaker. Back seat: rotflmao! On my mostly local 13.5 mile test drive, avg'd over 19mpg per the OBC. Jag offering .9% financing on CPOs. Optional 19" staggered tires. I'm thinking third car, no winter, keep the TL. Also, an '09 in Silver a few miles down the road also available. Not sure this is the best rational, economic decision.
'11 Lexus CT200H: I test drove about the same time TM bought (and Lexus paid me $100 to do it!!!). I'm just intrigued by the car. I like the simply laid out interior a lot, along with the compact size. Enjoyed playing with the different drive modes. Slow, but didn't seem too slow, and CVT takes some getting used to. Still, was fun to drive. Of course, no supply due to obvious reasons, six on the floor when I tested, all gone. Want to see one with the leather interior, although the Nuluxe seemed OK. But, it didn't fool me as leather. Replace the TL, my winter tire/wheel combo for the TL just might fit on the CT, a plus.
'10 or '11 Audi A5. Local dealer has a '10 A5 outfitted exactly as I'd want, loaded ("Prestige" model) with V6. Although Meteor Gray in color, vs the Quartz Gray I truly desire. But Cinammon interior with wood accents, I truly enjoy wood accents in my interior (which my TL lacks). Haven't driven yet. Also, '11 with 2.0T engine I'd plan to drive. Replace TL.
'11 CTS Coupe: Reminds me of my beloved VW Scirocco and desired, but never owned, follow up the Corrado (CTS Coupe reminds me a lot of the Corrado, exterior-wise). Available AWD, nice interior, but not, from what I've read, fantastic performance. Poor visibility, better rear seat than the XK. Haven't driven yet. Replace TL.
So, that's my current thinking. Any comments? The Jag is special, unique, I think that's what my heart truly desires. But, my pragmatic, New England brain is pushing hard the other way (actually, stupid brain says keep the TL, which I still enjoy very much!).
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Man, when it comes to a car purchase... you've got to make that decision yourself, but I will add my very brief comments.
Jag is always nice. Gorgeous car. It's an emotional purchase. Speaks mid-life crisis?.. lol. As you said, the CT200h is indeed fun! Gets tons of compliments, and even though power is underwhelming, sport mode really helps... but actually I often drive in ECO mode lately, and get amazing fuel economy, on regular gas. Incredibly versatile body style. CT200h is my ultra-biased recommendation... of course. Audi is a very nice car, and very attractive, and drives well. Consider the 2.0T. Skip the Cad... IMHO.
Thanks, I've been lurking. Enjoying tales of great wealth creation and the fickle nature of Mother Nature. And glad that all here seem happy and healthy (or on the road to healthy!).
I should have referenced mid-life crisis, ongoing for years! At least I'm not considering a Corvette (not that there's anything wrong with that!).
Yes, the Caddy is not really near the top of my list, but holds an attraction. I think I'm looking for something I don't see every day, the Jag would be #1 in that respect. But, the CT does really hold a certain allure to me also, waving at the gas stations would be an added pleasure. None to be had, yet, though. The Audi is a beauty and with AWD would be a logical choice for New England. 2.0T is a consideration for new, the V6 is just a CPO that happens to be almost perfectly configured. And a year of depreciation already absorbed. The price has dropped $6k in the last month...
It's really the Jag, but then three cars/two garages and a probable new car for the lovely wife in the fall (four cars!?) as daughter turns 16 and inherits the Lexus. Or, do I Jag, trade the TL and snow tire the Jag? But, really a two seater, maybe 2.5...
I'll hem and haw over this for quite some time, I'm sure. Stupid brain.
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Wonderful to hear from you. I don't think I can help you much about you car decision, but I am also biased (as is TM) towards the CT. I tried to get my wife to buy one but she insists she needs something bigger. We still have one year to go on the RX450h lease so, who knows how she feels at that time.
From a former New Englander to a present one. Let's get the Red Sox on a long winning streak .
If you like Audi, don't forget the A3 TDI as a mileage competitor to the CT200h. They do get an honest 50 MPG out on the open road. Green car of the year last year. A bit more headroom in the A3. Overall about the same size as the CT. Slightly more cargo space in the Audi.
OK, TM...NOW you have my attention! Nice buy and here is some news
NEW YORK—A dozen investment-grade borrowers are offering bonds Monday, led by notable names such as International Business Machines Corp., CVS Caremark Corp. and Prudential Financial Inc.
The floodgates opened as corporate earnings season began to wind down and companies turned their attention back to unusually low interest rates and ample capital available to high-grade borrowers.
"It's a great time to be an issuer [of debt]," said Tom Murphy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Management in Minneapolis.
It means IBM, among others, will continue to invest in value-added projects.
...and here's one for AAPL...
Tech darling Apple (AAPL: 347.60, +0.94, +0.27%) can now add “world’s most valuable brand” to its already remarkable resume.
Ending Google’s (GOOG: 537.68, +2.38, +0.44%) four-year reign, Apple’s brand value surged by 84% from a year ago to $153.29 billion, making it the world’s most valuable, according to a new study by WPP company Millward Brown Optimor. Apple’s brand value has rocketed by 859% since 2006.
The remaining top 10 companies in the Millward Brown study are rounded out by IBM (IBM: 169.10, +0.21, +0.12%), McDonald’s (MCD: 79.31, +0.61, +0.78%), Microsoft (MSFT: 25.83, -0.04, -0.15%), Coca-Cola (KO: 66.95, +0.05, +0.07%), AT&T (T: 31.35, +0.09, +0.29%), Philip Morris International’s (PM: 68.29, -0.31, -0.45%) Marlboro, China Mobile (CHL: 45.85, -0.12, -0.26%) and General Electric (GE: 20.07, +0.06, +0.30%).
I saw this story about Apple overtaking Google this morning. So, what does AAPL do today? Basically, lays another turd. I don't understand it. Something has to give soon with AAPL. Maybe people are actually waiting for a 10 for 1 split.
Man, I wish I had listened to you about 6-8 months ago when you were recommending IBM. what a great stock. Maybe it's not too late to jump aboard.
So, what does AAPL do today? Basically, lays another turd. I don't understand it.
There probably aren't enough new buyers. Everyone is on "hold" mode. I am in the same position. I have so much of the stock, I can't justify buying more right now. So many funds and investors have some AAPL, and are holding it.
The stock might...
decline sharply due to Steve Job's deteriorating health or his inevitable departure... after which it will be available at a bargain price.
AND / OR...
something awesome is going to happen with regards to the company, and investors will finally pour more $$$ into the stock.
I have already made my prediction recently that Apple's massive treasure chest full of cash is going to be used in surprising way in the future... it will be a brilliant business strategy, and the stock will be dramatically affected.
Strangely, I am soooo relaxed with my AAPL shares. I have NO DOUBT that they will be worth a LOT more within the next two years. Like you, I own over 6 digits worth of the stock, and I am being very patient on this one. I am not worried about these short-term doldrums. The reward will come.
Of course, you could do all of us a favor, and sell all your AAPL shares... that would pretty much guarantee that the share price would skyrocket the very next day...
No problem getting in now. This stock is still a solid investment choice as the company has great fundamentals, a good management and investing in the right technology for the future.
They continue to transform themselves. Remember, I take a looooonnnngggg view on investing so take this from my perspective and see if you think it would work in your portfolio.
If Apple's market cap wasn't so high it would be the greatest takeover candidate in history. A company with red hot consumer products with a rollout coming, no. 1 consumer brand, 65bln in cash and growing at phenomenal rates trading at 12x EBITDA and 16X PE. Just incredible. The only rationale explanation is a belief profits will stagnate or fall.
Are you saying that only day traders are buying and selling AAPL these days? If everyone (real investors) were holding, I would expect the price to rise given the trading volumes. I think there is some sort of manipulation going on here, perhaps more to do on the option side. I think a lot of option traders bought short term calls on AAPL expecting it to shoot up within months, so it would be in the interest of the call writers to delay the rise until after the option expiry dates. What do you think of this?
I made a little tweak this morning. I sold off some of my C shares and put it into AMZN. Still holding onto some C, but I think AMZN will perform better, and I want to be patient, but not stubborn, with regards to Citi.
Also, I noticed my VOD holdings were too large, and I trimmed some. This is a company that I really like, and it pays a decent dividend as well as offering reasonable appreciation, and it is a terrific company in a terrific growth industry, with a good upside outlook... but I was holding too much. I put that money into GM, which might surprise a few folks, but I am convinced that GM will be a $35 - $40 (or more) stock by sometime next year, and on a percentage basis that's not too shabby, and it also compliments my F holdings for that sector.
Other than that little bit of tweaking, I am sticking with the detailed list I posted yesterday.
I have been watching QLIK, but I can't seem to find a comfortable entry point... especially when I consider your recent comments about the stock.
For the car thoughts, all. I might take the Jag overnight later in the week. See how the kids fit in the back "seats."
Tag, what interior/exterior color is your CT? Nuluxe or leather, if Nuluxe, how do you like it?
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Well... I hate to rely too much on the talking heads, but I have heard that AAPL is kind of saturated in large investor accounts. Consider that Citi's volume had been massive (although the reverse split will likely dampen that), yet the share price didn't rise much.
I think your suggestion regarding options could be valid, but the most likely way we will see a big rise in AAPL is when the company makes some sort of announcement or releases a report that blows everybody away. Investors practically expect miracles from AAPL at this point, which is a shame, IMO.
Bottom line fundamentals, as Len has clearly pointed out recently, are fantastic. I guess I am being stubborn here, but I am not about to abandon my holdings of AAPL when it has those kinds of financials.
I didn't have a lot of choice at the time I decided to purchase the CT... unless I was willing to wait, and I really didn't want to wait. Mine is a bright silver metallic, and I think Lexus calls it Tungsten Pearl. The interior is black. It is the Nuluxe. I wanted leather, but it was not available at the time. I always prefer leather, but the Nuluxe is holding up fine, and in fact, it has been a good thing a couple of times... leaving baseball games with my son and teammates and their filthy uniforms and gear... it wiped up pretty easy compared to leather, and its comfortable as heck. That said, I will repeat that I always prefer leather, when given the choice, but the Nuluxe has been fine.
The car is FUN... and, it is amazing how great the gas mileage truly is in real life... it's nice to wave at the gas stations... there is something about the different driving modes that makes it fun also... and sometimes its fun to see just how much gas mileage I can get, and I watch all the cool color displays and instrumentation, and the way the interior dash lights change intensity when achieving good fuel economy. Also, the color changes from Sport mode to ECO mode.
Incredibly versatile! Back seat is no big deal, but it works for the kids perfectly, and there is enough room in the back to haul plenty of "stuff". Cockpit is plenty comfortable, and the premium sound system is decent. Satellite and iPod. Terrific Lexus NAV system. Sunroof is great, and it doesn't rob headroom.
I'm getting 36+ mpg, because I love the "Sport" mode, but it's easy enough to achieve 40++ using the "normal" or "ECO" modes... on the cheapest REGULAR gas... no expensive diesel or premium.
Going to put on the Zaino one of these days... but the Lexus dealership already put on some sort of paint protection, so I am in no hurry.
One problem you have in investing in any high cap company, but most assuredly a company that is top 20 or so in market cap is that they can't be taken over. The money is nearly impossible to attain and even if it were you'd have big anti-take-over defenses to get through from the past. So you lose your takeover premium as they are aquirors instead. Now it's possible that if you are as large as Apple that you run out of buyers or that you have over-saturation or that you reach a point where mutual funds have too many shares owned and have restrictions on buying more as Tag noted. But I d'ont buy it as Microsoft once had a valuation 1.5X higher than this. Also that just violates investment rules in my book. Unless you have inside knowledge or are a pure gambler or just have an amazing gut, you buy the greatest growth you can buy at the maximum stability you can find in as many different niches/industries you can. A subscription business model gives you the greatest chance of stability because the business has a high renewal rate but usually the growth is too slow. Microsoft in the past with a then major growth segment in its Office business may have been the best ever in that regard. In the case of Apple it's products are one-offs but I think what the investor community is missing, aside from properly valuing it's Balance Sheet, is that hidden behind the scenes is a sought of subscription model as the companies new releases are highly sought by repeat buyers and the products have both great customer satisfaction and high margins. These are things that I as a CFO, may appreciate more than many others. As a CFO in acquiring companies you are looking for things that everyone else misses. But as an investor that's the last thing in the world you want.
Saw Tags comment re an Apple earnings run-up driving the stock price up. But they just had one and undoubtedly will get another one next quarter and the stock is flat. So I'm thinking this happens beforehand and the stock will probably make a big run in the weeks ahead of that next earnings report. My feeling is you'll start to see a steady run-up to and across $400, unless the whole market tanks, just before the next earnings report and then a sell on the news as Apple never gives you upbeat proections, something I just d'ont understand. If you d'ont have this type of price run-up than Apple will have a multiple down to 10X EBITDA or less in a few months.
One reason I thought Apple would keep rising this go round was the normal market rules. You d'ont need an overwhelming number of buyers to keep a stock rising. You need great fundamentals and just a few more buyers than sellers. With the low valuation of Apple (on a multiple basis, 12x EBITDA is absolutely absurd), it's really trading almost in value stock company. So it's almost impossible for me to imagine there could be more sellers than buyers on so many days. I guess what it shows you is that momemuntum (whether on the buy or sell side) can defy sommon sense too often. Just be careful when it runs out though. Witness Amazon which remains a great momentum stock but which at 72X EBITDA and 88X PE is undoubtedly is a bubble.
Thanks, the Tungsten is one of my two choices, the other is the Meteor Gray. I like the carmel nuluxe with Bamboo wood accent. I'd probably skip the Nav package, just want the upgraded stereo and (probably) leather (gray). I, too, had fun dialing between the drive modes on the test drive. Hard to keep it in EV mode! But cool to feel/see the difference in Eco v. Sport mode.
I'm a big hatchback fan, my first three cars were hatches.
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
I'm slightly encouraged by the bit of life AAPL showed late in the session today. However, it has obviously not proven anything yet. I would like to see it close above $355 by Friday. I think that was my prediction to TM when he asked me give a prediction on AAPL and the market in general this week. As for the market, I said it would make new highs this week. It looks like it is well on it's way to do so.
GS, options may be a reason why AAPL has been dogging it lately, but I think there is much more to it than options. Other than manipulation, I don't know what THE reason is. I'm anxiously waiting for the stock to stick it big time to the bears.
I am willing to accept the idea that it is due to a level of large-investor saturation that will not increase until those investors have some sort of catalyst... and since Apple doesn't offer realistically optimistic guidance, it puts a bit of a headwind into the picture. I don't buy much into the market manipulation theory. Whether intended or not, I think Apple itself puts resistance in place by being deliberately too conservative with their forward-looking guidance, which results in this stagnation. Therefore, if anyone would be guilty of manipulation, it would be Apple itself.
So, I stick with my perspective here... this scenario requires a catalyst... typically in the form of a product announcement or amazing earnings report, although not limited to either... because at some point in time we will discover Apple's brilliant purpose for all that cash.
You definitely make a good point. There has to be a good reason why AAPL is hoarding all that cash. Your scenario of perhaps a major announcement in the near future makes sense.
If you skip the NAV package, you won't get the cool motorized flip-up retractable color display, which is used for a whole lot more than just NAV. The NAV package also comes with the Lexus Remote Touch device (BMW could learn a big lesson from this very intuitive feature), a very useful voice command, a must-have integrated backup camera (makes parallel parking a snap and also helps see what's behind when backing up in those dark nights), and enhanced Bluetooth technology. And, let me tell you, the Bluetooth system iin this car is awesome, and worth every penny due to its enhanced features.
So, just a recommendation... you might want to reconsider getting that NAV package. $2445 gets the whole package with ALL those extra features as well.
You've noted a few times that Microsoft needed something that might be a game changer for it and I think the acquisition of Skype, albeit very pricey, might be it. This article gives some good strategic rationale. Let's remember that Microsft, while cash loaded to begin with, took advantage of interest rates under 1% not too long ago to borrow money it didn't need at all. With Wall street giving no value to cash these days, putting nearly interest free money to use in any way, whether organic or acquisitive, is smart and worth the gamble for a company as stagnated as Microsoft is. I'd fear this acquisition if I were Google as it could be the start of a new social networking product with a key customer base from Xbox and Skype merged. Could be long-term Bing makes gains in internet search on the PC after it gains in other devices first.
I think it is a potentially smart move, but I see it as a move that will help Microsoft stay competitive... and floating... for a while. I really don't see it as a leap ahead of anyone... at all.
I've been saying for some time now that I view X-Box as one of the best treasures that Microsoft has going for it. Utilizing X-Box Live and integrating it into an interactive mobile environment is an evolutionary step.
At this very moment, my son is between having finished his homework, and going to the baseball field to work with his pitching coach. So, what do you think he is doing for the next thirty minutes until he has to leave? He is online with his X-Box Live, and he is using his headphone/microphone gear, as he has joined one of many "teams" with other players from all over the country, with the goal of killing the other team of opponents in Call of Duty Black Ops combat simulations. The players can talk with one another (every player has a level of permission to interact that he can control) and they can see each other's actions.
Taking this whole X-Box Live platform to incorporate social networking is a natural evolutionary step, but I don't know that it required an expensive purchase of Skype, or if the Skype purchase is for another purpose, and maybe has nothing to do with this at all. Regardless, X-Box and X-Box Live are VERY important to Microsoft's future, IMO, and the importance of taking it mobile is critical, also IMO.
One more thing... I think Apple is waaaaaaaayyyy ahead of everyone on this, and the integration of many of the features that are already on the Apple platforms will catapult Apple even further ahead. For example, the shift to the Lion OS this summer is actually a brilliant shift to place iOS as the GUI on the desktop... making the use of all Apple products very similar and easy. I predict that Apple computer sales will increase at an alarming rate after this next OS update this summer because they will be nearly as easy to use as an iPhone and an iPad, which is already familiar to so many.
Who would prefer to use or to learn Windows 7 or upcoming Windows 8 when the simple GUI of iOS will be utilized throughout all Apple devices? I feel sorry for Microsoft, and while they are indeed a sleeping giant, and a potential threat of sorts, I do not have much hope for them. I think they had better find a new business to get into very soon. Maybe they think so too, and that is why they purchased Skype... LOL. Perhaps Microsoft and Google should team up and try to overtake Apple? Or maybe Apple should buy one of them and destroy them? But, then again, maybe Apple is already about to destroy them.
IMHO... Apple is sooooo poised to take over ALL the computing, networking and media... mobile and desktop alike, and I have no doubt that Apple will finally get over the hurdle of gaining control of our televisions. It will not surprise me if some of Apple's massive amount of money isn't ultimately used to purchase gigantic sources of media... any names come to mind?
Comments
TM
Then today, we hear a whole different story.
The difference in the reported perspective was soooo extreme that it would appear we all moved to a totally different world today than the one we lived in yesterday.
The market is schizophrenic!
I sold a large portion of my equities yesterday, based upon the prevailing perspective and reporting, and then comes today.... WHAM! With exception of the stocks I retained, I have otherwise missed out on the rebound today. So... I am sitting here wondering if today's rebound is going to reverse itself, or if I truly missed out.
Suddenly, I feel like I have lost my way with the market. This hasn't happened to me in a very long time. But, nonetheless, it is the truth.
What information and reporting can we believe? :confuse:
TM
Nothing we get from the Federal Government. It is all tainted to extend an agenda. We know for a fact the real Unemployment is closer to 20%. The 9% are those lucky enough to still get UI. Here in CA it is still over 12% reported.
For example, the government could put out a very favorable jobs report, and the market can rally huge... but the following month, the report could be revised downward, and the market will hardly notice because it is paying closer attention to events that are more current.
And, at the end of the day, both reports are grossly wrong anyway... as you point out, they are flawed at their core.
I am still very interested to see if this rally today has any staying power, or if it sells off. It has definitely declined quite a bit from its high. Frankly, if it sells off, I will feel a LOT better. I think the market truly needs to catch its breath, and if it doesn't do so now, it could take a very big hit later.
TM
There is just so much information, that it is impossible to peace it together as we use to be able to do in years gone past.....You have a very good` sense` of the market, and imo would be a very good investment advisor.....You just believe in yourself, and your integrity, and be forgiving also, and you will again land right back on your feet......Yesterday was probably just the beginning of what you suspected was coming, and it always starts unexpectedly......You know things are manipulated to a degree, as the pools of money are huge, and the emotion of doing stuff without your own money involved is way easier than what you and I and the rest of our board has to go through......Keep the faith Tony
God bless you Tony.
I have watched with amazement as today's huge rally fizzled away until it has become nothing more than a small gain.
But, it does show me that there is a hair-trigger in place for some serious upside at this point. Unfortunately it also shows that there is quite a bit of downward pressure that is still in place as well. With that, I have re-purchased 50% of my previous holdings. More importantly, I am keeping the other 50% in cash until I decide what I will do perhaps next week.
IMO, it's a commodities shake-out. Those guys that bought on margins are losing their shirts and selling everything they can (including equities) to stay afloat. Even the rally couldn't help them, so they sold off the rally. When their problems are over, the market will rebound. The question is when that will happen. So, I am easing myself back into the market carefully.
Incredible!
TM
EDIT: As the market has just closed now, I notice that is has actually moved up slightly from where I bought back in, which I apparently accomplished at the low for the day. I am definitely feeling a ton better than I did at the market's open. Now, we can all wait and see what happens next week.
I want to agree completely with this and in my heart I do. The only fly in the ointment is that gas, which is weak and declining in demand every week, and on top of that having a report that China sees weakening auto sales, declined less than oil yesterday and actually rose today. Makes no sense.
Exactly.
When signs point one way, and then the numbers go the opposite... well, just like you said... "makes no sense". There are too many contradictory or opposing indicators going on simultaneously.
Also, there are a lot of serious domestic and global issues happening concurrently. IMO, the current combination of those contradictory indicators and the concurrent issues is creating excessive volatility, and definitely excessive media hype. Then combine all that with yet another mess, specifically those massive margin purchases of silver which resulted in yet another bubble explosion (the likes of which haven't been seen in decades), and the results are obvious to us all... market gyrations that are moving out of sync, and "making no sense".
In the end, I think I will try to follow the lead of the Fed. But, even the Fed has expressed concerns about our Congress's ability (or rather lack of ability) to deal with our national debt, and about the impact of high oil prices.
All we can do is see what's around the corner... and try to deal with it... because so far, for quite some time now, we have been enduring a long, seemingly never-ending onslaught of surprise events, abroad and domestic alike.
From the BP Gulf oil spill to the recent Japanese Earthquake/tsunami and the commodities explosion... and so much that has been in between. Hell... it's getting to be a regular thing.
A precursor to 2012? lol.
TM
The long view for me is invest in companies that are fundamentally strong and have inherent value. AAPL is a no brainer as is IBM.
Notice how oil went down and OPEC is also considering adding more supply precisely at a tipping point? How politically savvy of them.
Watch by summer the price of gas will average $4.00 regardless...until the first hint of retaliation from al-Qaeda... and then the advance will continue.
Notice how I've changed from an oil bear to bull! Amazing! I'm tired of getting fried!
Regards,
OW
Hope those twins and your father-in-law are having great birthdays.
Keep us posted.
TM
The long view for me is invest in companies that are fundamentally strong and have inherent value. AAPL is a no brainer as is IBM.
I do notice that... and you most likely get a better night's sleep than I do.
And that's a compliment.
However, I still think if would be cool if you posted more often.
TM
And Tag, it would have to be a good chunk of the commodities market. The silver market is way too small to have the level of effect we saw this week. Bernanke is going to ease off the pedal on some of the money policy when he ends QE2. That was always his trump card against inflation as the dollar would strengthen and commodities would fall. The only way commodities hold up is if real fundamentals are at play. Obviously this is a mighty signal that they are not and that they are likely further out of line than any of us think.
My in-laws have no internet access. The
hotel where my son and his family are staying does but it is very incovenient for me to get there since my wife goes to pick them up and the RX can only take on 5 people. I decided to try my Android phone and this is how I'm posting at this time.
Len, I think you mentioned above that gas has not dropped with the steep oil decline. I assume you mean natural gas. If so, that market has had a mind of its own anyway. When crude soared, nat gas did very little. So I would not place much significance on this.
I will try to keep up to date here. Btw, we had a fabulous time celebrating 3 birthdays yesterday.
In fact, in addition to that, my phone has an additional feature called "Hotspot", which (when I toggle it on) transmits a wi-fi signal. In other words, if I go anywhere where there is no internet access, my phone fixes that. For example, if you visited your family with my phone in your pocket, you could use your iPad to connect to the internet, and your family could connect as well, if they have any wi-fi devices.
My Nook Color can connect to the internet everywhere I go, because my phone's wi-fi gives it access. Sometimes my kids want to download iTunes songs or play YouTube videos on their iPod or MacBoook when we are away from home or in the car. I just turn on my phone's "Hotspot" and they are on the internet.
It's a reason I would really enjoy a MacBook Air. It could access the internet almost everywhere I go, as long as I have my phone with me.
TM
need to play around with the phone and iPad combination to see if I can make it work.
My son bought the Macbook Pro decked out 15 inch 2.3 at the Apple Store here in St. Louis for $2800 smackers with tax. He is very impressed with it. I did not buy the iPad2 since they did not have the model I wanted.
Hotspot depends upon model of phone. Mine is HTC EVO 4G.
I am going to guess that Apple might be smart enough to add this wi-fi feature to their next iPhone. I hope so... if they don't they will be making a big mistake.
Did you scope out the iMac?
TM
Yes my son did scope the iMac out. We were both impressed with it. He needs portability so he had to get the MacBook Pro.
For comparison purposes only, and in case you are interested, Sprint gives UNLIMITED Hotspot wi-fi for $29/month, and can connect up to 16 users for that same fee. And, even though Sprint does not have the iPad in their arsenal. anyone can easily own an iPad or any other portable Apple device with wi-fi connectivity and simply connect to the internet by using the wi-fi service provided by Sprint's Hotspot.
That said, as a result of our conversation, you have now gained some new internet prowess with your iPad. It's good that we help each other out, don't you think?
As far as the iMac goes, I never expected it to be used by your son... I was talking about YOU owning one for your desk, and then using the iPad when you need to go portable. I know that Len has mentioned that he is considering one for his desk, and I am as well... there is little out there that is better, IMO. And, I was wondering if you had a chance to check it out. It offers an amazing amount of features and power for the buck. It may very well be Apple's best (and only) genuine bargain.
Your son will love his new MacBood Pro.
Hey... what's the prediction for the market this upcoming week?
TM
I am not ready for a new desktop at this time. It would certainly be nice to own an iMac but the expensive Dell I bought a couple years ago will have to suffice for a while. It has everything I need at this time.
There is no doubt that we are learning from each other on this forum. Had it not been for you indicating that you can connect by using the wi- fi on your phone, I would not have investigated it and find an alternative. And had it not been for me mentioning the CT200h a couple months ago, you would not own one right now
As for my prediction for the market this week, I am of the opinion that it will be a good week. I believe the gas prices have peaked and will be dropping quite a bit over the next several months and this can only be good news for the consumer. The Dow willrobablt make new hogs this week. I am not sure what to say about our "darling"... AAPL. It should easily reach above $355 and head to $160, but the "powers that are" keep selling into every AAPL rally. One of these days they will get blown out of the water and they won't know what hit them.
I hope Citi did not make a big mistake with their reverse split. AAPL seems to just stay on that $350 plateau. When they split one for ten I will jump in.
Regarding gold and silver... I am in gold slightly, but I will not touch any other metals, regardless of potential because they are too volatile for my taste.
TM
Here's a brief rundown on most of them.
Firstly, I want to inform OW that I have finally added IBM to my portfolio. I should have done this a long time back, and now that I am finally doing so, the stock will probably sink like a rock... lol. Anyway, thanks OW. Go IBM!
OK, now I've got that out of the way... Here we go.
ARMH... I added more (I like Apple's announcement to use ARM microprocessor chips in the iPAd).
AMZN... I added more (Kindle likely to be in Wal-Mart and I expect a newer version before too long, in addition to their music application, book sales, and the company is awesome).
AAPL... I am in BIG (no explanation necessary... patience required).
BMY... Small amount (pays dividend, good company to have as a small part of portfolio, IMO).
BRK'B... Small amount (good long-term).
C... Moderate investment (Huge upside potential, long-term, patience required).
CAT... Terrific company.
CSCO... Moderate investment (Stock beat to heck recently, should make some nice percentage gains as it should start to recover within a year, company has revised business model).
DD... great company.
F... love this stock long-term
GE... a must-have.
GM... Just added it. (It has done almost NOTHING, and their picture seems to get brighter, so I am taking a chance that the stock will advance nicely on a percentage basis within a year provided auto sales stay strong enough).
GOOG... A must have.
HD... very small amount.
HNZ... small investment (solid company, pays dividend).
HUWHY... speculative, Chinese, has done VERY well for me.
JDSU... roller coaster, but I like it.
IBM... finally in my portfolio. Why did I wait so long?... lol.
KMB... small investment (solid company, pays dividend).
KO... new for me, small amount today (solid enough to try).
LLY... small amount (solid company, pays dividend).
MCD... moderate investment (solid company, international, has done very well lately).
MO... small amount (pays dividend).
NVS... moderate amount (pays dividend, has done very well for me).
QCOM... small amount (tech stock).
T... moderate amount. (Solid. Can't ignore).
DUK... small amount (good dividend, and continues to do very well).
FDX... moderate amount (solid company, must have).
SDRL... moderate amount (excellent dividend, and good returns).
S... small investment (can't ignore the potential, has done very well lately, part of the bigger picture).
UPS... moderate investment (solid company, must-have).
VZ... moderate investment (part of the bigger picture).
VOD... large investment (I love this stock, actually owns VZ, is a bigger company than many realize, and I see it as a very good long-term investment).
WM... small to moderate (who else is gonna haul away all the trash and recycle it?... lol. Terrific company).
Those are most of them. (I also have some other equities, funds, gold and fixed securities, but that's enough to get started here).
Check them out and please feel free to offer any feedback on any or all of them.
TM
I'll stay on topic here by prefacing my car thoughts with a stock story that will help pay for my dilemma below: In late '89 the division of the company I worked for had an MBO. They later offered all employees who went with the new entity the option (subsidized!) to buy into the new company. I did (shoulda bought more!!!). Fast forward 20 years and a sale has been announced (pending shareholder/regulatory approval, of course). My meager investment will pay off handsomely (shoulda bought more!!! And not as handsomely as some of the astute trading going on around here!), adding a bit of fuel to the, "I want, but don't need, but I'm not getting any younger and I deserve to treat myself once in a Blue Moon to a treat and I spend very little on myself..." new car fire. So, here's what I'm thinking, an eclectic mix, and may sound familiar:
Current ride: Lovely Abyss Blue '05 Acura TL, multiple coats of Zaino Z-2 and Z-5. Additions/replacements:
'08 Jaguar XK, Pearl Gray: Have had a thing for the XK for some time. Test drove last week, CPO. Beautiful car, smooth and quiet ride. Visibility better than expected, not as powerful as expected. But, no deal breaker. Back seat: rotflmao! On my mostly local 13.5 mile test drive, avg'd over 19mpg per the OBC. Jag offering .9% financing on CPOs. Optional 19" staggered tires. I'm thinking third car, no winter, keep the TL. Also, an '09 in Silver a few miles down the road also available. Not sure this is the best rational, economic decision.
'11 Lexus CT200H: I test drove about the same time TM bought (and Lexus paid me $100 to do it!!!). I'm just intrigued by the car. I like the simply laid out interior a lot, along with the compact size. Enjoyed playing with the different drive modes. Slow, but didn't seem too slow, and CVT takes some getting used to. Still, was fun to drive. Of course, no supply due to obvious reasons, six on the floor when I tested, all gone. Want to see one with the leather interior, although the Nuluxe seemed OK. But, it didn't fool me as leather. Replace the TL, my winter tire/wheel combo for the TL just might fit on the CT, a plus.
'10 or '11 Audi A5. Local dealer has a '10 A5 outfitted exactly as I'd want, loaded ("Prestige" model) with V6. Although Meteor Gray in color, vs the Quartz Gray I truly desire. But Cinammon interior with wood accents, I truly enjoy wood accents in my interior (which my TL lacks). Haven't driven yet. Also, '11 with 2.0T engine I'd plan to drive. Replace TL.
'11 CTS Coupe: Reminds me of my beloved VW Scirocco and desired, but never owned, follow up the Corrado (CTS Coupe reminds me a lot of the Corrado, exterior-wise). Available AWD, nice interior, but not, from what I've read, fantastic performance. Poor visibility, better rear seat than the XK. Haven't driven yet. Replace TL.
So, that's my current thinking. Any comments? The Jag is special, unique, I think that's what my heart truly desires. But, my pragmatic, New England brain is pushing hard the other way (actually, stupid brain says keep the TL, which I still enjoy very much!).
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Man, when it comes to a car purchase... you've got to make that decision yourself, but I will add my very brief comments.
Jag is always nice. Gorgeous car. It's an emotional purchase. Speaks mid-life crisis?.. lol.
As you said, the CT200h is indeed fun! Gets tons of compliments, and even though power is underwhelming, sport mode really helps... but actually I often drive in ECO mode lately, and get amazing fuel economy, on regular gas. Incredibly versatile body style. CT200h is my ultra-biased recommendation... of course.
Audi is a very nice car, and very attractive, and drives well. Consider the 2.0T.
Skip the Cad... IMHO.
TM
I should have referenced mid-life crisis, ongoing for years! At least I'm not considering a Corvette (not that there's anything wrong with that!).
Yes, the Caddy is not really near the top of my list, but holds an attraction. I think I'm looking for something I don't see every day, the Jag would be #1 in that respect. But, the CT does really hold a certain allure to me also, waving at the gas stations would be an added pleasure. None to be had, yet, though. The Audi is a beauty and with AWD would be a logical choice for New England. 2.0T is a consideration for new, the V6 is just a CPO that happens to be almost perfectly configured. And a year of depreciation already absorbed. The price has dropped $6k in the last month...
It's really the Jag, but then three cars/two garages and a probable new car for the lovely wife in the fall (four cars!?) as daughter turns 16 and inherits the Lexus. Or, do I Jag, trade the TL and snow tire the Jag? But, really a two seater, maybe 2.5...
I'll hem and haw over this for quite some time, I'm sure. Stupid brain.
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Wonderful to hear from you. I don't think I can help you much about you car decision, but I am also biased (as is TM) towards the CT. I tried to get my wife to buy one but she insists she needs something bigger. We still have one year to go on the RX450h lease so, who knows how she feels at that time.
From a former New Englander to a present one. Let's get the Red Sox on a long winning streak
NEW YORK—A dozen investment-grade borrowers are offering bonds Monday, led by notable names such as International Business Machines Corp., CVS Caremark Corp. and Prudential Financial Inc.
The floodgates opened as corporate earnings season began to wind down and companies turned their attention back to unusually low interest rates and ample capital available to high-grade borrowers.
"It's a great time to be an issuer [of debt]," said Tom Murphy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Management in Minneapolis.
It means IBM, among others, will continue to invest in value-added projects.
...and here's one for AAPL...
Tech darling Apple (AAPL: 347.60, +0.94, +0.27%) can now add “world’s most valuable brand” to its already remarkable resume.
Ending Google’s (GOOG: 537.68, +2.38, +0.44%) four-year reign, Apple’s brand value surged by 84% from a year ago to $153.29 billion, making it the world’s most valuable, according to a new study by WPP company Millward Brown Optimor. Apple’s brand value has rocketed by 859% since 2006.
The remaining top 10 companies in the Millward Brown study are rounded out by IBM (IBM: 169.10, +0.21, +0.12%), McDonald’s (MCD: 79.31, +0.61, +0.78%), Microsoft (MSFT: 25.83, -0.04, -0.15%), Coca-Cola (KO: 66.95, +0.05, +0.07%), AT&T (T: 31.35, +0.09, +0.29%), Philip Morris International’s (PM: 68.29, -0.31, -0.45%) Marlboro, China Mobile (CHL: 45.85, -0.12, -0.26%) and General Electric (GE: 20.07, +0.06, +0.30%).
Full article: Survey: Apple Trumps Google as Most Valuable Brand
Regards,
OW
I saw this story about Apple overtaking Google this morning. So, what does AAPL do today? Basically, lays another turd. I don't understand it. Something has to give soon with AAPL. Maybe people are actually waiting for a 10 for 1 split.
Man, I wish I had listened to you about 6-8 months ago when you were recommending IBM. what a great stock. Maybe it's not too late to jump aboard.
There probably aren't enough new buyers. Everyone is on "hold" mode. I am in the same position. I have so much of the stock, I can't justify buying more right now. So many funds and investors have some AAPL, and are holding it.
The stock might...
decline sharply due to Steve Job's deteriorating health or his inevitable departure... after which it will be available at a bargain price.
AND / OR...
something awesome is going to happen with regards to the company, and investors will finally pour more $$$ into the stock.
I have already made my prediction recently that Apple's massive treasure chest full of cash is going to be used in surprising way in the future... it will be a brilliant business strategy, and the stock will be dramatically affected.
Strangely, I am soooo relaxed with my AAPL shares. I have NO DOUBT that they will be worth a LOT more within the next two years. Like you, I own over 6 digits worth of the stock, and I am being very patient on this one. I am not worried about these short-term doldrums. The reward will come.
Of course, you could do all of us a favor, and sell all your AAPL shares... that would pretty much guarantee that the share price would skyrocket the very next day...
TM
They continue to transform themselves. Remember, I take a looooonnnngggg view on investing so take this from my perspective and see if you think it would work in your portfolio.
Regards,
OW
Regards,
OW
Also, I noticed my VOD holdings were too large, and I trimmed some. This is a company that I really like, and it pays a decent dividend as well as offering reasonable appreciation, and it is a terrific company in a terrific growth industry, with a good upside outlook... but I was holding too much. I put that money into GM, which might surprise a few folks, but I am convinced that GM will be a $35 - $40 (or more) stock by sometime next year, and on a percentage basis that's not too shabby, and it also compliments my F holdings for that sector.
Other than that little bit of tweaking, I am sticking with the detailed list I posted yesterday.
I have been watching QLIK, but I can't seem to find a comfortable entry point... especially when I consider your recent comments about the stock.
TM
Tag, what interior/exterior color is your CT? Nuluxe or leather, if Nuluxe, how do you like it?
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
I think your suggestion regarding options could be valid, but the most likely way we will see a big rise in AAPL is when the company makes some sort of announcement or releases a report that blows everybody away. Investors practically expect miracles from AAPL at this point, which is a shame, IMO.
Bottom line fundamentals, as Len has clearly pointed out recently, are fantastic. I guess I am being stubborn here, but I am not about to abandon my holdings of AAPL when it has those kinds of financials.
TM
I didn't have a lot of choice at the time I decided to purchase the CT... unless I was willing to wait, and I really didn't want to wait. Mine is a bright silver metallic, and I think Lexus calls it Tungsten Pearl. The interior is black. It is the Nuluxe. I wanted leather, but it was not available at the time. I always prefer leather, but the Nuluxe is holding up fine, and in fact, it has been a good thing a couple of times... leaving baseball games with my son and teammates and their filthy uniforms and gear... it wiped up pretty easy compared to leather, and its comfortable as heck. That said, I will repeat that I always prefer leather, when given the choice, but the Nuluxe has been fine.
The car is FUN... and, it is amazing how great the gas mileage truly is in real life... it's nice to wave at the gas stations... there is something about the different driving modes that makes it fun also... and sometimes its fun to see just how much gas mileage I can get, and I watch all the cool color displays and instrumentation, and the way the interior dash lights change intensity when achieving good fuel economy. Also, the color changes from Sport mode to ECO mode.
Incredibly versatile! Back seat is no big deal, but it works for the kids perfectly, and there is enough room in the back to haul plenty of "stuff". Cockpit is plenty comfortable, and the premium sound system is decent. Satellite and iPod. Terrific Lexus NAV system. Sunroof is great, and it doesn't rob headroom.
I'm getting 36+ mpg, because I love the "Sport" mode, but it's easy enough to achieve 40++ using the "normal" or "ECO" modes... on the cheapest REGULAR gas... no expensive diesel or premium.
Going to put on the Zaino one of these days... but the Lexus dealership already put on some sort of paint protection, so I am in no hurry.
TM
Saw Tags comment re an Apple earnings run-up driving the stock price up. But they just had one and undoubtedly will get another one next quarter and the stock is flat. So I'm thinking this happens beforehand and the stock will probably make a big run in the weeks ahead of that next earnings report. My feeling is you'll start to see a steady run-up to and across $400, unless the whole market tanks, just before the next earnings report and then a sell on the news as Apple never gives you upbeat proections, something I just d'ont understand. If you d'ont have this type of price run-up than Apple will have a multiple down to 10X EBITDA or less in a few months.
One reason I thought Apple would keep rising this go round was the normal market rules. You d'ont need an overwhelming number of buyers to keep a stock rising. You need great fundamentals and just a few more buyers than sellers. With the low valuation of Apple (on a multiple basis, 12x EBITDA is absolutely absurd), it's really trading almost in value stock company. So it's almost impossible for me to imagine there could be more sellers than buyers on so many days. I guess what it shows you is that momemuntum (whether on the buy or sell side) can defy sommon sense too often. Just be careful when it runs out though. Witness Amazon which remains a great momentum stock but which at 72X EBITDA and 88X PE is undoubtedly is a bubble.
I'm a big hatchback fan, my first three cars were hatches.
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
I'm slightly encouraged by the bit of life AAPL showed late in the session today. However, it has obviously not proven anything yet. I would like to see it close above $355 by Friday. I think that was my prediction to TM when he asked me give a prediction on AAPL and the market in general this week. As for the market, I said it would make new highs this week. It looks like it is well on it's way to do so.
GS, options may be a reason why AAPL has been dogging it lately, but I think there is much more to it than options. Other than manipulation, I don't know what THE reason is. I'm anxiously waiting for the stock to stick it big time to the bears.
So, I stick with my perspective here... this scenario requires a catalyst... typically in the form of a product announcement or amazing earnings report, although not limited to either... because at some point in time we will discover Apple's brilliant purpose for all that cash.
TM
If you skip the NAV package, you won't get the cool motorized flip-up retractable color display, which is used for a whole lot more than just NAV. The NAV package also comes with the Lexus Remote Touch device (BMW could learn a big lesson from this very intuitive feature), a very useful voice command, a must-have integrated backup camera (makes parallel parking a snap and also helps see what's behind when backing up in those dark nights), and enhanced Bluetooth technology. And, let me tell you, the Bluetooth system iin this car is awesome, and worth every penny due to its enhanced features.
So, just a recommendation... you might want to reconsider getting that NAV package. $2445 gets the whole package with ALL those extra features as well.
TM
You've noted a few times that Microsoft needed something that might be a game changer for it and I think the acquisition of Skype, albeit very pricey, might be it. This article gives some good strategic rationale. Let's remember that Microsft, while cash loaded to begin with, took advantage of interest rates under 1% not too long ago to borrow money it didn't need at all. With Wall street giving no value to cash these days, putting nearly interest free money to use in any way, whether organic or acquisitive, is smart and worth the gamble for a company as stagnated as Microsoft is. I'd fear this acquisition if I were Google as it could be the start of a new social networking product with a key customer base from Xbox and Skype merged. Could be long-term Bing makes gains in internet search on the PC after it gains in other devices first.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microsoft-deal-should-vastly-apf-539379486.html?x=- - - - 0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
I've been saying for some time now that I view X-Box as one of the best treasures that Microsoft has going for it. Utilizing X-Box Live and integrating it into an interactive mobile environment is an evolutionary step.
At this very moment, my son is between having finished his homework, and going to the baseball field to work with his pitching coach. So, what do you think he is doing for the next thirty minutes until he has to leave? He is online with his X-Box Live, and he is using his headphone/microphone gear, as he has joined one of many "teams" with other players from all over the country, with the goal of killing the other team of opponents in Call of Duty Black Ops combat simulations. The players can talk with one another (every player has a level of permission to interact that he can control) and they can see each other's actions.
Taking this whole X-Box Live platform to incorporate social networking is a natural evolutionary step, but I don't know that it required an expensive purchase of Skype, or if the Skype purchase is for another purpose, and maybe has nothing to do with this at all. Regardless, X-Box and X-Box Live are VERY important to Microsoft's future, IMO, and the importance of taking it mobile is critical, also IMO.
One more thing... I think Apple is waaaaaaaayyyy ahead of everyone on this, and the integration of many of the features that are already on the Apple platforms will catapult Apple even further ahead. For example, the shift to the Lion OS this summer is actually a brilliant shift to place iOS as the GUI on the desktop... making the use of all Apple products very similar and easy. I predict that Apple computer sales will increase at an alarming rate after this next OS update this summer because they will be nearly as easy to use as an iPhone and an iPad, which is already familiar to so many.
Who would prefer to use or to learn Windows 7 or upcoming Windows 8 when the simple GUI of iOS will be utilized throughout all Apple devices? I feel sorry for Microsoft, and while they are indeed a sleeping giant, and a potential threat of sorts, I do not have much hope for them. I think they had better find a new business to get into very soon. Maybe they think so too, and that is why they purchased Skype... LOL. Perhaps Microsoft and Google should team up and try to overtake Apple? Or maybe Apple should buy one of them and destroy them? But, then again, maybe Apple is already about to destroy them.
IMHO... Apple is sooooo poised to take over ALL the computing, networking and media... mobile and desktop alike, and I have no doubt that Apple will finally get over the hurdle of gaining control of our televisions. It will not surprise me if some of Apple's massive amount of money isn't ultimately used to purchase gigantic sources of media... any names come to mind?
TM