Pugeot has supposedly come up with a viable diesel hybrid designated the "3008" with average fuel economy of 61 mpg. They either are or about to start selling it in Europe. I think the "3008" designation signifies the year it will be available in the U.S.
>It was also at that time that I predicted that we would see the most recent round of high oil prices... and sure enough, those nasty speculators have done it again... and this time along with other commodities, such as silver.
How much of the increase in the price of oil is due to the dollar's devaluation because of the fiscal policies of the administration. I believe I heard that it has been devalued by 14% since 2009 started.
Does that mean that (roughly) 14% of the increase in crude pricing in dollars is due to the overspending and printing money by the administration and using quantitative easing to keep the interest rates artificially low?
Pugeot has supposedly come up with a viable diesel hybrid designated the "3008" with average fuel economy of 61 mpg. They either are or about to start selling it in Europe. I think the "3008" designation signifies the year it will be available in the U.S.
Volkswagen has them hammered to a pulp with their diesel hybrid know as the XL1. It was first introduced with a 260 mpg rating, but that has been upped to 313 mpg at this point. And, the surprise is that it WILL go into LIMITED production in 2013.
I PROMISE you that I will place a deposit for one the moment it is confirmed for our market.
There's tons of info on the internet if you are interested.
I test drove an RX450h yesterday, and I am in love. It's no wonder you wife didn't want to swap into an CTh. It's at least 100% better than the previous gen RXh. This is a the first hybrid that I could see myself driving and loving it.
GS...
The CT is the cheapest Lexus. There is no way it can, or even should compare. I drove both an ES and an IS as a loaner, when they were doing the paint protection, and, IMO, they are also "cheap" feeling to my standards... not all that much better than the CT.
Now, I'm not complaining about the CT, because I really like the car a lot... but at the same time, I'm certainly not going to have some unrealistic perspective either. Sure, it's tons of fun, and well-featured, but its still a fairly low-end car... and the IS and ES are also kind of low-end, as I discovered when I drove each of them for a full day.
I would have to assume and hope that the RX and the rest of the lineup is far better than the ES, IS, and CT in terms of build and ride quality.
Next time I get a loaner, I'm going to see if they can provide an RX.
TM, I have nothing against the CTh. I drove it last week and liked it as well, but I just loved the RXh. Its interior is very nice as it should be. The drive train is 99% that of a real V8, without the gas guzzling effect. In electric mode, it's just dead silent. I think the only part that can use some slight improvement is the moderate acceleration btw 20-35 mph in city driving, I wish that the torquay and butter smooth electric motors could be the only source of power here. It's no wonder they are selling a ton of these.
OK, back to the markets... I think it is ridiculous that the dollar improves a little bit today, and suddenly stocks are negatively impacted. It's my opinion that a strong dollar is overall a good sign for our economy, and therefore stocks should improve.
Perhaps those market "manipulators" have abandoned stocks for the day, and are playing the dollar, because it is more lucrative at the moment.
I wasn't under the impression that you had something against the CT. I was only putting any comparison between the RX and the CT into perspective.
Charlie has always made it clear to all of us that the RX is a fantastic vehicle, so it makes good sense to hear your positive view of the vehicle. And I think you make a good point that Charlie's wife might not want to go from that RX to a CT.
I agree with you on the ES. It has a very cheap feel to the interior. We get one from time to time as a loaner. I think Lexus is a victim of their own marketing with the ES. If you want a nice interior and at least some steering feedback you have to move up to the GS.
We have owned the RX in the past, which my wife drove. Starting with the 2010 model it is a much nicer vehicle and has a much more substantial feel to it. Some friends of ours just traded a 2004 RXH for just a non hybrid 2011 RX 350 and they both like the new one tons better even though non hybrid.
It is nice to discuss cars here from time to time.
GS, you hit the nail on the head. My wife was getting upset that I was pushing her toward the CT. The CT is an awesome machine for it's class, but she is SO use to the room, luxury, and power of the RX450h that she will not consider the CT at this point. It will be very interesting to see the direction she will take a year from now when the RX lease expires (June 30, 2012). I have a strong feeling she will want the then new RX.
P.S...The market sucks big rotten eggs. But, keep your faith on AAPL and you will be greatly rewarded.
I don't care if the market is down until the fall. It'd better pickup big time before 2013. :P I drove the RXh for almost an hour and loved it. I am sure your wife will want another unit when the lease is up.
P.S...The market sucks big rotten eggs. But, keep your faith on AAPL and you will be greatly rewarded.
Well... I put a whole lot of green in the market yesterday and again this morning. By the end of the day... I lost a chunk of dough, on paper. It definitely sucks big rotten eggs, like you said.
I heard a few commentaries that strongly suggested we are going to see a VERY negative market throughout most of the summer. I don't like that kind of talk, and I do know that the market potentially could go a long way down... so it's kind of troublesome when I hear that kind of negative sentiment.
There was also discussion about the way there is an increasing number of investors that are now actually hoping the market will go down, and they are shorting the market.
Here's the scenario that troubles me... If it's true that the big investors play the market to decline, then they would further "manipulate" the market by selling off many of their substantial holdings. Today, I actually heard on television and satellite radio, a number of fund managers admit that they are in fact selling. Then, as the market declines, they would sell more and more, and there would be more and more shorting the market. All of it would be better for them, even in a declining market, but the rest of us would bleed badly, as the decline feeds on itself and creates a bearish momentum.
And, that scenario could very well be what we are in for. :sick:
TM, the fact that the so called experts are bearish and the big investors are betting on a market downturn, actually makes me feel better about the market doing the opposite. If I had followed the advice of these a..holes since the spring of 2009, I would be extremely upset that I did not participate in this impressive bull market. So, fear not my friend what these jerks have to say.
-The market has declined three weeks in a row... so far. -Apple's share price can't get any traction. -Big investors are selling stocks every time the dollar increases in value. -Soon, the Fed will be tightening the loose money policy, which will -strengthen the dollar, which will in turn cause the big investors to sell stocks. -The housing crisis is already in round two, and there is literally no light at the end of the tunnel. -Oil seems to stay at high price levels, no matter what. -Market manipulators are shorting the market, and big fund managers have already admitted they are starting to sell more and more. -Market manipulators are screwing around with the price of AAPL shares.
And, that's just for starters...
So... I guess I should be glad I have bought a sh..pile of stocks? :confuse:
The fact that market has closed lower 3 weeks in a row, but has not really collapsed is actually a positive sign for me. The dollar hasn't done crap for several weeks. It doesn't mean anything. It just a bs excuse. Yes the Fed will eventually tighten things up. That is already in the market.
If you recall, 3-4 weeks ago, I stated that the Rbob will likely sell off 50 cents. I could feel it in my bones. There was no reason for gasoline prices to be that high. The crude is still very high but it has sold off a lot from the highs. Gas prices wil likely sell off another 20-30 cents in my opinion. This is very good for the consumers. The earnings report will continue to be impressive. Yes, the one sector that will continue to stink is the housing sector, but everyone knows this. I also believe that the jobs situation will continue to very slowly improve. So there! Who are you going to believe, yours truly or the a..holes of the world? Wait, don't answer that please .
Summer usually stinks in stocks so I think the market stays low, correcting to 11,500 on the Dow and then cycling between there and 12K before moving up when school is back in session.
Hopefully by then things improve at the current snail's pace enough to bring it back to be poised for Q3 profit calls. If oil stays low, under $4/gal., employment falls to 8.8 or lower, and the profit picture is bright for the summer quarter, the fall should see the dow back into the 13's.
I agree. I just can't shake my gut feeling... and probably shouldn't. I regret getting back in the market. I made a big mistake, IMO. I have been out of whack ever since my broker convinced me to stay in back on April 29th, when I asked him to sell all my stocks.
In spite of my prior post to Charlie, I expect to get out of the market early next week. The futures look absolutely horrible. Time to take that breather that I attempted a week ago, but I allowed myself to jump back in. Once I am out of the stock market, I am going to spend more time on the beach and less time monitoring stocks.
In addition, I will be meeting with a new broker that has a much higher level of education and expertise than my previous broker, and it will be very interesting to hear his perspective on all of this.
I might retain some dividend-paying paying stocks, but I am not sure yet on that decision.
Also, I am going to take a very close look at fixed securities again... and see what is the best return at this time.
When the dust finally settles, my target date for re-entry is November 1st.
One exception might be AAPL... depending upon their roll-out schedule... I might own AAPL shares.
But there is no doubt that I need to be much more true to my gut feeling and never let myself get this out of whack ever again. I am not the least bit afraid to admit it, because it is the truth. Everything went wrong for me on April 29th, when my broker swayed me from what I knew to be true.
Always go with your gut (sometimes the brain over-thinks).
My long term strategy has been knocked by the so-called experts forever. Doesn't seem to affect me, even after the worst recession since the 1929 depression, this strategy works for me.
I am glad that IBM has been a good investment for you.
As good as AAPL is, there are real-life vulnerabilities that can easily get overlooked due to our "love-affair" with the company. I am definitely guilty of this. I can't help but love the company and its products, as well as its financials. AAPL is, IMO, the best company in the world at this moment. Quite a few years ago, I placed WalMart high up on a pedestal, but obviously things have deteriorated for that company.
More importantly, I just want to get back to my original state-of-mind and state-of-"gut". And that is this........
On April 29th, the day I intended to sell out of the market (when my broker argued and argued against it, until I finally caved in), I was coinvinced that we would see a correction moving forward from that point. If I return myself to that perspective on April 29th, I would NOT be invested in stocks right now.
Therefore... and for that very reason... I MUST sell all my stocks until I determine for myself that we are no longer in a corrective mode.
I want to make this clear to everyone here that I still believe April 29th was a key date, and that we are NOT finished with this correction. I could certainly be wrong... very wrong... but, it is my very humble opinion that we are going to see some dramatic downside and some massive volatility for the next month or two, or even longer.
If this corrective struggle between the bears and bulls isn't completed within the next 45 days, then I think we are going to see it continue through the end of October... in which case, my target date to re-enter the market isn't until November 1st!! That said, if somehow the correction definitively ends sooner, I will be happy to jump right back in... but I will be extrememely careful not to mistake a false rally for an end to the correction.
At this time we are only a couple percentage points into the correction. There is a lot of downside potential ahead, IMO. And, what concerns me is that I see a whole lot of companies losing momentum, and the moving averages are falling off. In spite of great fundamentals for many fabulous companies, the BIGGER picture isn't so rosy, and THAT is the picture I believe I must look at.
I got rid of CAT... this is an ouch... but I heard a report that gave me reason to think that the stock might be too lofty for the global conditions that lay ahead... and could continue to drop further.
I got rid of EMC... This was a stock that I didn't have much dollars invested in, and I don't want to be distracted by it. And I didn't lose any $$ at all on this one, so I figured I'd just sell it now.
Sold ARMH... just to clean up the portfolio, I only lost a little over a hundred bucks, so I'm not worried about it at all.
So, these are the only stocks that I am holding onto at this point...
Major holding... AAPL
Significant holdings... IBM, T, S, VOD
Speculative holding... RIMM (this stock has been so badly beaten up, that it might be very ripe to adjust to the upside... also I could sell it at any time, depending upon it's behavior)
TM, I'm riding it out. I have done nothing. My Etrade accounts are basically all AAPL anyway.
The crap about the European debt problem coming out this morning is just that...crap. This has been going back and forth for more than a year. It is more manipulation by the a..holes of the world. You watch. Tomorrow or Wednesday, this issue will go back on the back burner and something positive will come out.
So far all the really bad weather has missed us. Joplin, MO. is about 200 miles south of us and they really got hit hard yesterday with many deaths. I feel very sorry for those poor people. Very strange weather this year.
We have lived in this area for about 33 years and never even seen a tornado, and I hope we never do. In 1992 we had some hail damage to roof and cars so all in all we have been lucky.
The weather is still unsettled here and there will probably be more storms over the next couple of days, then it is supposed to settle down some.
Well Charlie, my good buddy... when push came to shove, I not only kept my AAPL shares, but I bought more, and even in today's sick market, I am ahead on today's AAPL purchase (so far).
Charlie, I am sticking with you on AAPL. And, when it dips, I will continue to buy more. I will NOT however, exceed $250K in AAPL stock. That's my limit.
I am a tad nervous about IBM, but overall feel confident. The analyst ratings on this stock are far superior to almost ANY other stock out there. I have to give OW a ton of credit for having been steady with his IBM invesment, and I still fault my broker for, once again, making a bad call.
I am still confident that AAPL is going to move to the upside later this year, and at some point, it's going to really take off in a major way.
I am a tad nervous about IBM, but overall feel confident. The analyst ratings on this stock are far superior to almost ANY other stock out there.
What???? RELAX, my Friend!
Throughout Seattle-based Microsoft's rise, IBM was pilloried as an old-fashioned, immobile Goliath that could not keep up with the computing revolution.
Since the Internet technology bubble burst in 2000, the tables have been reversed, and Microsoft's stock has been stagnant, as investors doubt its ability to move beyond its Windows operating system and Office suite of software, while younger rivals such as Google Inc (GOOG.O) and Facebook steal the limelight.
In the meantime, "Big Blue" has refashioned itself as a specialist in business software, servers and consulting, jettisoning its PC business along the way.
An investor putting $100,000 into both stocks 10 years ago would now have about $143,000 in IBM stock and about $69,000 in Microsoft stock.
We have lived in this area for about 33 years and never even seen a tornado
Interesting Houdini. I have friends in Kansas City who said the same thing (actually lived there their whole lives so in some cases 50+ years) up to a few years ago. Then one tore through an area about 100 yards behind their backyard. But sincel I visited KC (we had a division out there in my old job) I have been amazed at how many folks in tornado ripe areas have never seen a tornado. Hopefully you never see one. Does every thunderstorm in April into June scare you?
One thing that was almost comical is that the instructions in the hotel suite I stayed at said (and it was in December on a day snow was expected) use the bathroom tub (which you'd expect) for protection if you hear tornado sirens or see an approaching tornado. But if you were staying there with a family of four there was no such room for all.
You know Tag, if CNBC had any sense of smarts or ethics someone on that station would point out how low the valuation of Apple (and others) really is. Instead all they talk about is market cap as if market cap was the multiplier and the PE multiple was the resulting product. Further proof that they are in the hands of the manipulators as they need them as guests.
Hey, look at Zacks ratings on AAPL, and you will be surprised that it isn't really all that great.
Sometimes I wonder what it takes to please the big investors and so-called experts. I guess they just love anything that sounds like a social networking company, or perhaps a Chinese search engine company... even if it is worthless. They are drunk. They can't see in front of their eyes... one of the world's best companies of all time, with one of the best business models, and best product line, and sitting on a treasure chest of cash.
Idiots.
That's OK... because one day, when they wake up and realize that they were missing the boat, and they all invest in AAPL again, we will be smiling all the way to the bank.
Early in the day, I sold most of my stocks, so I ended up locking in a combination of gains and losses, but the losers outnumbered the winners overall. But, that said, it wasn't nearly as bloody as I had expected. And, there were actually a couple of nice surprises...
AAPL was only down fractionally!... and what was really cool was that I was fortunate to pick up some more of the stock's shares at a real bargain this morning... so I made some $$ on those shares. Of course, they can go down in the future, but I am overall very optimistic about AAPL. The after market trading is UP... so far.
Overall, my return on my investment in HNZ is still UP!!
My overall return on my investment in S (Sprint) is WAAAYYY UP!!
IBM, BMY, NVS, and VOD are only down slightly.
And, I am even up a little on my speculative stock, RIMM, which I purchased today.
So... although I am certainly disappointed in the general market situation, I am also somewhat relieved because my investments are now focused down to a smaller and more manageable handful of stocks... and more importantly, because I didn't take the kind of beating I was expecting.
But... I think this crazy market has more surprises ahead.
I think AAPL will go below 330 for a while before shooting up again. "They" will want to cash in on all those call options over the next several months.
I lived in Kansas City for a few years and also in Wichita, KS for 4 more. Never witnessed a tornado thankfully. Our house in Wichita actually had a storm/safe room. Nothing fancy, but it was in the corner of the basement with poured concrete walls and a steel door. We did have to go in there a few times during some tornado warnings. I definitely saw my share of "scary" looking clouds.
I think AAPL will go below 330 for a while before shooting up again. "They" will want to cash in on all those call options over the next several months.
Could very well be... but I somehow don't think it will go a whole lot lower than 325 - 330. If it does, I think that would be a very good buying opportunity, don't you?
Tell me something. Why d'ont they build homes with partial or full basements out there. The old videos of folks running outside the house into the storm to get into a storm cellar is lunacy. Knowing me I'd be in the basement with every thunderstorm in the tornadic months and I wouldn't even think of building a house without a basement.
It's under 16X on a PE basis and under 12X on an Ebitda basis and that's on a trailing basis. How much lower can it get. It gets too much lower and Apple goes back to private with its cash hoard and low borrowing rates.
My wife is originally from the "South", and some of her relatives have a small storm cellar on their property. It's sort of a tiny concrete room/vault dug into the ground... you've probably seen one in the movies now and then.
Anyway, I think if I had one of them, I'd put water and plenty of survival gear in there.
Maybe a recliner and flat screen tv? In fact, I might fix it up enough so I could hide from the wife now and then. JK... I know... not funny.
don't think it will go a whole lot lower than 325 - 330 I think that would be the range. On the option board, a lot of people thought the 330-360 calls were safe, so I am sure there are a ton of them out there.
This brings up a point. Do you guys know if the majority of homes in Joplin had a basement? I imagine they do since the death toll would have reached hundreds more after viewing the incredible destruction. Can you imagine a tornado that is 3/4 of a mile wide?
Well, I am not an options trader... but I definitely and sincerely hope you don't get hurt. I've always worried that you might get too aggressive with your trading, and I even posted that concern a time or two in the past... so hopefully you'll be OK.
I'm still looking forward and hoping to see a pic of your very own supercar one of these days in the future.
But, if circumstances beyond your control make it impossible, we will all understand, that's for sure. I've lost bigger than that in my past... waaaaayyy bigger than that.
Just for starters... In 1989, I owned a large piece of ultra-prime beachfront property in Hawaii with two beach homes on it, on one of Hawaii's most sought-after beaches, which in 1992 I sold (like a total freakin' idiot) and it turned out to be worth 15 million dollars today. I cry about that often.
Then, in 2009, right after the financial crisis, I made the very hard and necessary decision to sell my muti-million dollar estate property in a prestigious country club. Frankly, I am actually relieved to be off that financial hook, although it was magnificent beyond most people's imagination, and I miss it now and then.
I have owned lots of nice vehicles... including numerous Porsches, a Ferrari, numerous Corvettes, couple Z's, numerous Mercedes, and lots more.
My business was once a nice thriving enterprise with plenty of employees and a major growth curve... but since the financial crisis, I re-worked my business model to include a small core team of employees and selling only specific products and services that are our niche and are relatively risk free.
I used to travel all the time. Not nearly as much now.
Yes... I have lost, and given up, a lot. Yet, I am happy enough with my little house near the beach in Malibu, driving around in my little hybrid... and ocassionally I ride my bicycle. I have tucked away a reasonable retirement account, but I am suspicious of brokers, as you can tell. I have a daughter about to go to an expensive college, and my son is only 11... but he will probably just pay his own way one day... because of his involvement in the crazy entertainment industry down here. He's a cool and great-looking talented kid and he has that "certain something" that I sure don't have.
I have learned a lot more about priorities than I ever expected. Perhaps that's exactly why my life has gone the way it has... to really know... deep down... about life's priorities.
So... if you lose a few bucks on JDS Uniphase... it's not the end of the world, that's for sure. Things could be a whole lot worse.
Somehow, I have a strong feeling, however, that you will be driving that Lexus LF-A before too long.
Comments
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
How much of the increase in the price of oil is due to the dollar's devaluation because of the fiscal policies of the administration. I believe I heard that it has been devalued by 14% since 2009 started.
Does that mean that (roughly) 14% of the increase in crude pricing in dollars is due to the overspending and printing money by the administration and using quantitative easing to keep the interest rates artificially low?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
TM
Volkswagen has them hammered to a pulp with their diesel hybrid know as the XL1. It was first introduced with a 260 mpg rating, but that has been upped to 313 mpg at this point. And, the surprise is that it WILL go into LIMITED production in 2013.
I PROMISE you that I will place a deposit for one the moment it is confirmed for our market.
There's tons of info on the internet if you are interested.
Here's a couple of pics I grabbed at random.
TM
GS...
The CT is the cheapest Lexus. There is no way it can, or even should compare. I drove both an ES and an IS as a loaner, when they were doing the paint protection, and, IMO, they are also "cheap" feeling to my standards... not all that much better than the CT.
Now, I'm not complaining about the CT, because I really like the car a lot... but at the same time, I'm certainly not going to have some unrealistic perspective either. Sure, it's tons of fun, and well-featured, but its still a fairly low-end car... and the IS and ES are also kind of low-end, as I discovered when I drove each of them for a full day.
I would have to assume and hope that the RX and the rest of the lineup is far better than the ES, IS, and CT in terms of build and ride quality.
Next time I get a loaner, I'm going to see if they can provide an RX.
TM
I have nothing against the CTh. I drove it last week and liked it as well, but I just loved the RXh. Its interior is very nice as it should be. The drive train is 99% that of a real V8, without the gas guzzling effect. In electric mode, it's just dead silent. I think the only part that can use some slight improvement is the moderate acceleration btw 20-35 mph in city driving, I wish that the torquay and butter smooth electric motors could be the only source of power here. It's no wonder they are selling a ton of these.
Perhaps those market "manipulators" have abandoned stocks for the day, and are playing the dollar, because it is more lucrative at the moment.
What a bunch of coyotes.
TM
No sweat.
I wasn't under the impression that you had something against the CT. I was only putting any comparison between the RX and the CT into perspective.
Charlie has always made it clear to all of us that the RX is a fantastic vehicle, so it makes good sense to hear your positive view of the vehicle. And I think you make a good point that Charlie's wife might not want to go from that RX to a CT.
TM
We have owned the RX in the past, which my wife drove. Starting with the 2010 model it is a much nicer vehicle and has a much more substantial feel to it. Some friends of ours just traded a 2004 RXH for just a non hybrid 2011 RX 350 and they both like the new one tons better even though non hybrid.
It is nice to discuss cars here from time to time.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
P.S...The market sucks big rotten eggs. But, keep your faith on AAPL and you will be greatly rewarded.
I drove the RXh for almost an hour and loved it. I am sure your wife will want another unit when the lease is up.
Well... I put a whole lot of green in the market yesterday and again this morning. By the end of the day... I lost a chunk of dough, on paper. It definitely sucks big rotten eggs, like you said.
I heard a few commentaries that strongly suggested we are going to see a VERY negative market throughout most of the summer. I don't like that kind of talk, and I do know that the market potentially could go a long way down... so it's kind of troublesome when I hear that kind of negative sentiment.
There was also discussion about the way there is an increasing number of investors that are now actually hoping the market will go down, and they are shorting the market.
Here's the scenario that troubles me... If it's true that the big investors play the market to decline, then they would further "manipulate" the market by selling off many of their substantial holdings. Today, I actually heard on television and satellite radio, a number of fund managers admit that they are in fact selling. Then, as the market declines, they would sell more and more, and there would be more and more shorting the market. All of it would be better for them, even in a declining market, but the rest of us would bleed badly, as the decline feeds on itself and creates a bearish momentum.
And, that scenario could very well be what we are in for. :sick:
TM
However...
-The market has declined three weeks in a row... so far.
-Apple's share price can't get any traction.
-Big investors are selling stocks every time the dollar increases in value.
-Soon, the Fed will be tightening the loose money policy, which will -strengthen the dollar, which will in turn cause the big investors to sell stocks.
-The housing crisis is already in round two, and there is literally no light at the end of the tunnel.
-Oil seems to stay at high price levels, no matter what.
-Market manipulators are shorting the market, and big fund managers have already admitted they are starting to sell more and more.
-Market manipulators are screwing around with the price of AAPL shares.
And, that's just for starters...
So... I guess I should be glad I have bought a sh..pile of stocks?
TM
If you recall, 3-4 weeks ago, I stated that the Rbob will likely sell off 50 cents. I could feel it in my bones. There was no reason for gasoline prices to be that high. The crude is still very high but it has sold off a lot from the highs. Gas prices wil likely sell off another 20-30 cents in my opinion. This is very good for the consumers. The earnings report will continue to be impressive. Yes, the one sector that will continue to stink is the housing sector, but everyone knows this. I also believe that the jobs situation will continue to very slowly improve. So there! Who are you going to believe, yours truly or the a..holes of the world? Wait, don't answer that please
But.....
I'm still feeling a bit uneasy about those damned market MANIPULATORS!
Thanks Charlie...
TM
Hopefully by then things improve at the current snail's pace enough to bring it back to be poised for Q3 profit calls. If oil stays low, under $4/gal., employment falls to 8.8 or lower, and the profit picture is bright for the summer quarter, the fall should see the dow back into the 13's.
Regards,
OW
In spite of my prior post to Charlie, I expect to get out of the market early next week. The futures look absolutely horrible. Time to take that breather that I attempted a week ago, but I allowed myself to jump back in. Once I am out of the stock market, I am going to spend more time on the beach and less time monitoring stocks.
In addition, I will be meeting with a new broker that has a much higher level of education and expertise than my previous broker, and it will be very interesting to hear his perspective on all of this.
I might retain some dividend-paying paying stocks, but I am not sure yet on that decision.
Also, I am going to take a very close look at fixed securities again... and see what is the best return at this time.
When the dust finally settles, my target date for re-entry is November 1st.
One exception might be AAPL... depending upon their roll-out schedule... I might own AAPL shares.
But there is no doubt that I need to be much more true to my gut feeling and never let myself get this out of whack ever again. I am not the least bit afraid to admit it, because it is the truth. Everything went wrong for me on April 29th, when my broker swayed me from what I knew to be true.
TM
My long term strategy has been knocked by the so-called experts forever. Doesn't seem to affect me, even after the worst recession since the 1929 depression, this strategy works for me.
It is in my gut!
Go IBM!
Regards,
OW
As good as AAPL is, there are real-life vulnerabilities that can easily get overlooked due to our "love-affair" with the company. I am definitely guilty of this. I can't help but love the company and its products, as well as its financials. AAPL is, IMO, the best company in the world at this moment. Quite a few years ago, I placed WalMart high up on a pedestal, but obviously things have deteriorated for that company.
More importantly, I just want to get back to my original state-of-mind and state-of-"gut". And that is this........
On April 29th, the day I intended to sell out of the market (when my broker argued and argued against it, until I finally caved in), I was coinvinced that we would see a correction moving forward from that point. If I return myself to that perspective on April 29th, I would NOT be invested in stocks right now.
Therefore... and for that very reason... I MUST sell all my stocks until I determine for myself that we are no longer in a corrective mode.
I want to make this clear to everyone here that I still believe April 29th was a key date, and that we are NOT finished with this correction. I could certainly be wrong... very wrong... but, it is my very humble opinion that we are going to see some dramatic downside and some massive volatility for the next month or two, or even longer.
If this corrective struggle between the bears and bulls isn't completed within the next 45 days, then I think we are going to see it continue through the end of October... in which case, my target date to re-enter the market isn't until November 1st!! That said, if somehow the correction definitively ends sooner, I will be happy to jump right back in... but I will be extrememely careful not to mistake a false rally for an end to the correction.
At this time we are only a couple percentage points into the correction. There is a lot of downside potential ahead, IMO. And, what concerns me is that I see a whole lot of companies losing momentum, and the moving averages are falling off. In spite of great fundamentals for many fabulous companies, the BIGGER picture isn't so rosy, and THAT is the picture I believe I must look at.
Good luck to all.
TM
You get slammed by that monster weather or tornado that's all over the news?
TM
I may sell a couple more during the day.
I actually BOUGHT 100 shares of AAPL, to put a little icing on the cake.
Also... bought some RIMM (bottom fishing).
TM
I got rid of CAT... this is an ouch... but I heard a report that gave me reason to think that the stock might be too lofty for the global conditions that lay ahead... and could continue to drop further.
I got rid of EMC... This was a stock that I didn't have much dollars invested in, and I don't want to be distracted by it. And I didn't lose any $$ at all on this one, so I figured I'd just sell it now.
Sold ARMH... just to clean up the portfolio, I only lost a little over a hundred bucks, so I'm not worried about it at all.
So, these are the only stocks that I am holding onto at this point...
Major holding... AAPL
Significant holdings... IBM, T, S, VOD
Speculative holding... RIMM (this stock has been so badly beaten up, that it might be very ripe to adjust to the upside... also I could sell it at any time, depending upon it's behavior)
Small holdings... MCD, BMY, NVS
I'll keep you further updated as things evolve.
How are the rest of you holding out?
TM
The crap about the European debt problem coming out this morning is just that...crap. This has been going back and forth for more than a year. It is more manipulation by the a..holes of the world. You watch. Tomorrow or Wednesday, this issue will go back on the back burner and something positive will come out.
So far all the really bad weather has missed us. Joplin, MO. is about 200 miles south of us and they really got hit hard yesterday with many deaths. I feel very sorry for those poor people. Very strange weather this year.
We have lived in this area for about 33 years and never even seen a tornado, and I hope we never do. In 1992 we had some hail damage to roof and cars so all in all we have been lucky.
The weather is still unsettled here and there will probably be more storms over the next couple of days, then it is supposed to settle down some.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Charlie, I am sticking with you on AAPL. And, when it dips, I will continue to buy more. I will NOT however, exceed $250K in AAPL stock. That's my limit.
I am a tad nervous about IBM, but overall feel confident. The analyst ratings on this stock are far superior to almost ANY other stock out there. I have to give OW a ton of credit for having been steady with his IBM invesment, and I still fault my broker for, once again, making a bad call.
I am still confident that AAPL is going to move to the upside later this year, and at some point, it's going to really take off in a major way.
We are in total agreement with this stock.
TM
TM
What???? RELAX, my Friend!
Throughout Seattle-based Microsoft's rise, IBM was pilloried as an old-fashioned, immobile Goliath that could not keep up with the computing revolution.
Since the Internet technology bubble burst in 2000, the tables have been reversed, and Microsoft's stock has been stagnant, as investors doubt its ability to move beyond its Windows operating system and Office suite of software, while younger rivals such as Google Inc (GOOG.O) and Facebook steal the limelight.
In the meantime, "Big Blue" has refashioned itself as a specialist in business software, servers and consulting, jettisoning its PC business along the way.
An investor putting $100,000 into both stocks 10 years ago would now have about $143,000 in IBM stock and about $69,000 in Microsoft stock.
UPDATE 2-IBM passes Microsoft's market cap after 15 years
Interesting Houdini. I have friends in Kansas City who said the same thing (actually lived there their whole lives so in some cases 50+ years) up to a few years ago. Then one tore through an area about 100 yards behind their backyard. But sincel I visited KC (we had a division out there in my old job) I have been amazed at how many folks in tornado ripe areas have never seen a tornado. Hopefully you never see one. Does every thunderstorm in April into June scare you?
One thing that was almost comical is that the instructions in the hotel suite I stayed at said (and it was in December on a day snow was expected) use the bathroom tub (which you'd expect) for protection if you hear tornado sirens or see an approaching tornado. But if you were staying there with a family of four there was no such room for all.
Honestly, I am GLAD I finally own shares of IBM... and IBM could very well become one of the long-term anchors of my investment portfolio.
BTW, good info, thanks.
TM
Sometimes I wonder what it takes to please the big investors and so-called experts. I guess they just love anything that sounds like a social networking company, or perhaps a Chinese search engine company... even if it is worthless. They are drunk. They can't see in front of their eyes... one of the world's best companies of all time, with one of the best business models, and best product line, and sitting on a treasure chest of cash.
Idiots.
That's OK... because one day, when they wake up and realize that they were missing the boat, and they all invest in AAPL again, we will be smiling all the way to the bank.
TM
AAPL was only down fractionally!... and what was really cool was that I was fortunate to pick up some more of the stock's shares at a real bargain this morning... so I made some $$ on those shares. Of course, they can go down in the future, but I am overall very optimistic about AAPL. The after market trading is UP... so far.
Overall, my return on my investment in HNZ is still UP!!
My overall return on my investment in S (Sprint) is WAAAYYY UP!!
IBM, BMY, NVS, and VOD are only down slightly.
And, I am even up a little on my speculative stock, RIMM, which I purchased today.
So... although I am certainly disappointed in the general market situation, I am also somewhat relieved because my investments are now focused down to a smaller and more manageable handful of stocks... and more importantly, because I didn't take the kind of beating I was expecting.
But... I think this crazy market has more surprises ahead.
TM
Could very well be... but I somehow don't think it will go a whole lot lower than 325 - 330. If it does, I think that would be a very good buying opportunity, don't you?
TM
Anyway, I think if I had one of them, I'd put water and plenty of survival gear in there.
Maybe a recliner and flat screen tv? In fact, I might fix it up enough so I could hide from the wife now and then. JK... I know... not funny.
TM
I think that would be the range. On the option board, a lot of people thought the 330-360 calls were safe, so I am sure there are a ton of them out there.
TM
Charlie... not only that... the debris was scattered to a radius of 300 miles! Just try to imagine that as well. :surprise:
TM
I'm still looking forward and hoping to see a pic of your very own supercar one of these days in the future.
But, if circumstances beyond your control make it impossible, we will all understand, that's for sure. I've lost bigger than that in my past... waaaaayyy bigger than that.
Just for starters... In 1989, I owned a large piece of ultra-prime beachfront property in Hawaii with two beach homes on it, on one of Hawaii's most sought-after beaches, which in 1992 I sold (like a total freakin' idiot) and it turned out to be worth 15 million dollars today. I cry about that often.
Then, in 2009, right after the financial crisis, I made the very hard and necessary decision to sell my muti-million dollar estate property in a prestigious country club. Frankly, I am actually relieved to be off that financial hook, although it was magnificent beyond most people's imagination, and I miss it now and then.
I have owned lots of nice vehicles... including numerous Porsches, a Ferrari, numerous Corvettes, couple Z's, numerous Mercedes, and lots more.
My business was once a nice thriving enterprise with plenty of employees and a major growth curve... but since the financial crisis, I re-worked my business model to include a small core team of employees and selling only specific products and services that are our niche and are relatively risk free.
I used to travel all the time. Not nearly as much now.
Yes... I have lost, and given up, a lot. Yet, I am happy enough with my little house near the beach in Malibu, driving around in my little hybrid... and ocassionally I ride my bicycle. I have tucked away a reasonable retirement account, but I am suspicious of brokers, as you can tell. I have a daughter about to go to an expensive college, and my son is only 11... but he will probably just pay his own way one day... because of his involvement in the crazy entertainment industry down here. He's a cool and great-looking talented kid and he has that "certain something" that I sure don't have.
I have learned a lot more about priorities than I ever expected. Perhaps that's exactly why my life has gone the way it has... to really know... deep down... about life's priorities.
So... if you lose a few bucks on JDS Uniphase... it's not the end of the world, that's for sure. Things could be a whole lot worse.
Somehow, I have a strong feeling, however, that you will be driving that Lexus LF-A before too long.
TM