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Well I had posted a link where someone mused Disney, but if I remember right you thought it was a bad idea.
Bringing the Jag home tomorrow for an overnight test drive, see if I can cram a kid or two in the "back seat." Researched snow shoes for the Cat, I'm thinking of throwing my money-saving, cautious, pragmatism to the wind and replacing the TL with the Jag! Having three (probably four come the fall) cars just doesn't make sense, so maybe I'll try the Jag as a year rounder. Go mid-life crisis!
Now, if only I had bought F at $1, this would be fiscally less of a risk!
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
TM
What am I missing here? Other than momentum/belief it'll go higher why pay 88X for this. Balance sheet is Ok but I d'ont like that high AP number. Growth is good but it's on relatively small profit and it's a retailer.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AMZN+Income+Statement&annual
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMZN+Balance+Sheet&annual
Meanwhile this growth, which is higher, and on high numbers is valued at 16X and the Balance Sheet is unbelievable.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AAPL+Income+Statement&annual
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AAPL+Balance+Sheet&annual
Len...
What is there to truly stop large investors on Wall Street from collaborating together?... at breakfast, lunch, or dinner?... having private phone calls or exchanging encrypted emails? ...rubbing shoulders anywhere on Wall Street or in New York?... or for that matter on any private jet, yacht, or just about anywhere?
Here's the answer: NOTHING
There is tremendous market-moving strength when investors are on the same page. And, none of it has to be out in the open, but the word is spread like a wildfire and the result is the "buzz" on the trading floor. The rest of us are not in the loop. The big bankers and big investors are a very privileged group indeed, and the rest of us just try to figure out which crumbs they have dropped.
I hate the stock market, even though I pay it sooo much attention. I am drawn to it. But if stocks truly reflected the fundamentals, I'd be a very, very wealthy individual. Unfortunately, as you point out, the fundamentals only go so far... and the rest is BS and hype and it puts us all at tremendous risk, and it creates volatility and massive market swings. If market indicators were used as a barometer for the condition of the world, one would think that we live in two different worlds instead of one. The roller coaster and schizophrenic performance of the markets is absurd, and so often they can NOT be linked directly to fundamentals or any reality.
There are many talking heads and gurus out there. Some are bulls and some are bears. Some predict amazing market performance, and some make dire predictions. They tell us to pay attention to fundamentals, and to a point I agree. But, then those same heads tell us to watch out for momentum. Then they tell us to watch for value. Then they tell us to ignore value, because it is a trap, and that investor sentiment and momentum is more important. Then they tell us to never fight the Fed, only to tell us later that the Fed is wrong and knows nothing. We are told to buy on the dips, then we are told to not buy into dips. We are told to buy a stock that is going up and away, but then we are told that we should never buy a stock that is advancing too fast. We are told to bottom fish, then we are told that we should never buy a stock that is run down because it is a loser. We are told that great stocks are actually speculative, and then we are told that speculative stocks are actually great stocks. Then we are warned against speculative stocks altogether. We are told to diversify one way, then we are told to diversify another. We are told that dividend stocks are good investments, then we are told that they don't offer enough return. We are told that Chinese stocks are a great idea, then we are told that they are way too risky. We are told that we should pay attention to sectors, but then we are told that sector trading is risky. Then we are told which sectors are hot, but then they end up selling off in the market. We are told that earnings are everything, but then we are told that investors often sell stocks that report great earnings. We are told that the market is a reflection of past or current business performance, then we are told it is a predictor of future economic activity. We are told to buy, then sell, then hold, then sell, then buy, then buy more, then sell, then hold, then sell, and then buy. And then once in a great while... the talking heads ocassionally apologize for "getting it wrong", but of course they continue to talk, talk, and talk and just steer us in circles.
But, as soon as there is a rally, we will hear one of those talking heads say "I told you so!" Then when there is a sell off, we will hear "I told you so!"
And in the meantime, while we are dizzy and a bit confused trying to make some sense out of the market... the large investors are counting all their money... and putting some of it in Swiss bank accounts.
It's BS.
TM
I have no doubt that there's a lot of collusion, especially on high PE stocks as they are running up. But no PE can maintain 100X without growth that supports it over time. There's no way to ride the stock down with a soft landing and of course that's why bubbles break badly. In the case of a stock like Apple I think there's a lot of isolated planning of how to buy in and amass a large position before you are discovered. When you get discovered the stock will run. Those of us who look at financials will say it ran because of great fundamentals. In reality it ran because of the domino effect of Wall Street knowing they better maintain or increase positions because somebody else is doing that.
The comparison is incredibly striking. As I have already implied on several recent posts, "something is rotten in the state of Denmark".
One of these days, the financial world would will wake up and AAPL will go flying like it rightfully should.
In short, aren't you saying that there is a great deal of manipulation taking place on your post?
I have, however, tried to put it THIS way... that the big investors can have an impact on stock prices, such as when I previously posted about how Wells Fargo Bank downgraded Apple, and we all saw the result. And, my most recent post today, when I said that large investors can "collectively" drive stock prices, when they are "on the same page"... and that when this happens, sometimes fundamentals don't mean a thing. And, I made a strong point about talking heads that essentially talk out of their _ss.
TM
Today I picked up the '08 Pearl Gray Jag XK Coupe w/19" staggered wheels for an overnight test drive. I decided to grab a quick lunch at Papa Ginos (a New England chain pizza place, not bad pizza for the Industrial kind!). I figured I'd have the coolest car in the parking lot, right?
But, nooooooooooooooo. I pull in, park to the left and immediately see a black Ferrari F430 convertible parked directly behind me to the right side. As I'm shutting down the Cat, who strolls out of the resataurant with a couple of the employees watching from the windows with awestruck faces? And, of course, hops into the Ferrari... Name that tune!
For those who immediately said, "Doug Flutie!:" Winner, winner. Chicken dinner! He was wearing a very bright red Red Sox t-shirt and looked bigger in person than in pix (of course, I was practically sitting on the ground in the belly of the Cat, so I imagine everyone would look bigger to me...).
What are the odds that on a cloudy Thursday afternoon at a two slices and an unlimited fountain beverage for $5.80 (tax included! Such a bargain!) pizza joint, the Jag would play second fiddle? And, the driver of the Jag vs. the driver of The Stallion play, well, if only I were second fiddle...
See what the family thinks of the Jag tonight. It's a beauty.
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Good Luck!
TM
I hope your family likes the Jag because it seems as if you are sold on it
NO,NO NO! You're looking at it the wrong way! Because you drove the XK into Papa Gino's, the best attracts the best!
Hope you take it home for good!
Regards,
OW
Maybe it's time to move back to New England, Charlie!
'21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)
Holy Smokes! We've been talking about this today and recently, and here comes THIS... Charlie and Len... you guys will REALLY appreciate this piece of information...
Fortune reports on an interesting phenomenon being observed in Apple's stock price related to the weekly options market, the trading of rights to purchase stock at a given price at the end of a specified period. According to the report, Apple's stock is consistently seeing suspicious price changes on Fridays as those options are set to expire, activity that makes a significant of traders lose any potential gains as the stock price moves to meet the strike price for that week's options. In many cases, that activity serves to depress the overall stock price, thereby also negatively impacting regular traders as well.
It was 3:48 p.m. on Friday April 29 and traders who had purchased Apple (AAPL) April 29 $350 "calls" -- options that gave them the right to buy Apple shares in blocks of 100 for $350 per share -- were sitting pretty. The stock was trading around $353.50 and those calls were worth more [than] $350 apiece (the difference between the price of the stock and the so-called "strike price" of the option times 100).
Then, in an extraordinary burst of trading -- exacerbated by the rebalancing of the NASDAQ-100 scheduled for the following Monday -- more than 15 million shares changed hands and the stock dropped below the $350 strike price just before the closing bell. Result: The value of those calls disappeared like a puff of smoke.
Fortune went back and charted the daily closing prices for Apple stock over the past eight weeks, comparing the Friday closes to the "max pain" price at which options on both sides of the equation (puts and calls) have the least value in aggregate. Throughout the time period, Apple's stock consistently moved toward the max pain point on each Friday, sometimes over a period of only minutes as trading came to a close for the week.
While the phenomenon is not new and not unique to Apple, the reasons for it are not entirely clear. Some have argued that normal hedging activity is responsible for the drifts in stock price, but scientific studies have shown that such stock price behavior would not be accounted for by simple hedging and is thus indicative of stock price manipulation, which is illegal under U.S. securities law.
Apple is obviously one of the most closely watched stocks these days, and with the second-largest market capitalization in the U.S. markets has the potential to significantly influence trading. And so an apparently consistent manipulation of Apple's stock price makes for an interesting story, even if it is not yet clear who is responsible for the activity and how it is being accomplished.
manipulation-of-apples-stock-price-evident-in-the-options-market
Maybe I'm about to change the words I use afterall... to include "manipulation", and maybe I'll even eventually consider the word "conspiracy".
Wow! I hope they figure this out.
TM
In a related story, I have a tennis friend who has been selling out of the money AAPL calls the past several months and collecting the premiums. Now I know why this has been working for him. He was encouraging me to do the same but I have steadfastly refused to do so since I have been thinking that I don't want to give up the stock when/if it reaches the strike price. For example, he recently sold the $370 June calls. I wonder when this news gets around that these folks will run for cover and the stock surges upward.
High priced stocks appear to make big jumps..... but, if they split 10-1, you wouldn't give it a second thought..
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In the option game 1 penny out of the money makes the contract worthless, so a $3 movement can make someone huge $.
Is there anything we can do to make sure this story is spread out in the mainstream? I hope it doesn't get buried and forgotten.
Believe it or not, I've been searching diligently every day for something to explain it. I came up empty handed day after day, until I thought I had something very recently... and that was the saturation theory I posted. But even if it has relevance (which it might, to a small degree), it doesn't explain the whole picture.
But then this afternoon, right before I went to pick up my son from school, I ran across this tidbit, and it struck me light lightning! I stopped in my tracks and immediately posted it for all of you.
Yeah... it pisses me off too. Market "manipulation" is illegal, and there is no doubt that SOMETHING has been going on here. I hope they figure it out.
Anyway, I just KNEW you'd appreciate it. And, I'm not finished doing my homework on this. If I run across anything else, I'll sure as heck let you guys know.
TM
Why? Because I have found it to be much too difficult to work with my broker. Our invesrment styles are on opposite sides of the spectrum. I am hands on... he is laid back. Two weeks ago, at the market's high peak, I called him to sell everything. He "advised" me to wait. After listening to his ranting, I did wait... and it has been challenging ever since. He was dead wrong, and I should have been true to my own market sense.
We talked about it this morning, and the more we talked, the more I knew it was time for me to move on. I instructed him to sell every single stock and I informed him that I will be closing the entire account as soon as I find another broker.
So. I must look for another broker. I have no idea what I'm going to do.
TM
You are very good....Tony
Regards,
OW
It doesn't, quite.
TM
Just goes to show.
EDIT: Yep, it was him alright!... post number 2763, February 1st... I posted that my broker talked me out of IBM, and I didn't know why.
TagMan Post 2763
TM
TM
I believe Patton said ` When everyone is thinking the same thing, then no one is thinking`....The same stuff is going on today, but instead of a Government doing it`s legal job, and keeping the playing field level, it is not....therefore instead of integrity being in the majority, the `game` is shielded from view---no more transparency--and the level of integrity is weakened.....The huge pools of money are managed by he likes of Goldman, and really dishonest individuals are free to do what ever they please in any manner...I think this is slowly beginning to be realized and some people are being brought to justice..
I write the above just to reiterate `we are own our own` and therefore if a person`s thinking is correct, then we have to have the courage of our convictions, and ignore a siren song.....I personally just have very little conviction on anything I think as the thought process is so influenced by mis information ....I do believe when things start to go against what I think, then I sell,and re-think---and quickly..no pride..Tony
Simply terrific.
Thank you.
TM
Apple down almost 2% again today. I would have thought that a company like that would be a place for safety on a bad day. But I'm wrong again. It simply amazes me that Apple so badly trails the much slower growing S&P in it's valuation (based on multiple of course). Could it be that the company ran so far so fast that the dirty options trading is really holding it back?
Tag - did you sell your whole Apple position?
BTW - I've done very well in the last 12 months because my mutuals, which is where my real large investments are, are heavily clustered in small cap and growth stocks. As much as I think Amazon is a bubble I own plenty of it thru mutuals. But I'm thinking it's time to switch to large cap. Anyone have any thoughts.
An Apple a Day and an IBM once in a while will be just fine for your future portfolio. The underlying values of both are phenomenal.
Regards,
OW
TM
Large Caps Poised to Outperform
"When we updated our calculations in January, once again large caps appear to be significantly undervalued compared with small caps," Keleher said. "The last time the valuations metrics sent such a strong signal was in June 1983, and over the following decade the Standard & Poor's 500 on average returned 10.4 percent annually, easily outperforming the Russell 2000, which returned an average of 6.5 percent annually over the same period."
We shall see.
Regards,
OW
For Charlie, I think Apple is like the stocks I mentioned---the really good ones---There is going to be a day when the manipulators turn the other way, and you will be there.....Right now it looks like `they` want it to look, but something is going on.....I certainly don`t know, but I have seen this type of action in the past......If anyone were to be over extended in any holding, it is worthwhile to trim back to a more comfortable position, but as I have said `I have made more money in a more concentrated holding` That is the way I live Tony
And... I tried to explain that it didn't matter to me. I never needed to hit the bullseye on the top or the bottom. All I wanted to do was REDUCE some of the loss, not eliminate it entirely. I don't think anyone could ever be that good as to perfectly time the market, but I have always believed that it is not an investment requirement to participate in every day of a correction.
Several times I was reminded that I called him more often than any of his other clients, and he made that point as if to say that I was bothering him with my frequent stock pruning and tweaking and my selling and buying.
Well, once again, I guess I better pack my bags 'cause I'm goin' on a guilt trip.
I do need to figure something out soon, however, because I don't want to be out of the market altogether for very long. I want to purchase AAPL again, and IBM, and some of my favorite stocks right after they get overly-hammered.
I am not going to change my belief that ultimately it's the fundamentals that are the best barometer and predictor of a stock's performance. When really good stocks get hammered, I want to be there to buy on those dips. Momentum stocks can be good, but the risk is always there that they can literally sail so high that they go over a cliff.
I've only got a few simple rules.
1. Pay attention to fundamentals.
2. Don't fight the Fed.
3. Know why I am buying or selling a stock (whether I am right or wrong, at least I want to have a reason).
4. Don't be afraid to speculate a little now and then if I really have a strong belief that a stock is going to go to the moon.
5. Never make a stupid risk that is too large (other than the market itself... lol)
Could be my favorite...
6. Dont' feel obligated to participate in a correction, or feel pressured to "stay in" when it doesn't feel right... even if I am wrong.
7. It's Ok to make a mistake... and even better to admit it.
8. Listen to OW when he tells me to buy IBM, and listen to GS when he tells me to buy QLIK.
Oh well... for now, it seems that I am up the river without a paddle.
TM
Not really. You can't go wrong with periods of almost total liquidity. Sometimes putting one's money "under the mattress" feels comforting and safer.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Outstanding stuff Tony! You have a good sense of history.
This AAPL behavior continues to baffle me. I am surprised no one in the media said anything about the article TM posted the other night about AAPL being manipulated downward. What gives here? I am trying to be very patient.
TM, you will come out "smelling like a rose" no matter what.
Well that is now impossible for me, as the group I was talking about was a very unique group, and the industry was way smaller ( maybe thirty five thousand individuals all in all).....At this point in time I suggest a person be on their toes, and not fall asleep at the wheel, as I did with my bank holdings a few years ago.....I woke up before the crash, but still lost probably a quarter of everything related to banking..
I really don`t know of a group or person to even follow.......In fact our entire country is changing in such a manner that the chances of finding situations in this country are very slim....Look and invest outside our counter and be prepared to loose everything exposed...
One thing I can tell you, `the financial advisors` and fund managers love a stock like apple ...They do not want it to go up too much a quarter, but just say seven eight percent...It makes their overall performance look better and attracts more money for them to get fees from.....The best situation of` all times` is when everyone makes money...and the volatility is subdued....I mean who wants to entrust their funds to a manager who is `all over the place`....There is so much responsibility to say a huge retirement fund---all the firemen or school teachers---so most of the money goes into varying bonds...just a small portion into stocks if any at all.....
I wish you the best Tony
You do need to give yourself a break........You gave the person a try, and it didn`t work out and left you frustrated ....Never the less you have a strategy , that you are comfortable with, and a good mind to use to improve and change with the times.....
I have a system a little like Cyclone in that I have a old friend who does not give me any advice, but is associated with one of the large brokerages....His firm just holds the funds or securities and does the paperwork...When I take a position I pay him either a nickel for a under twenty dollar stock or a dime above that . I find this is a sort of break that stops an impulsive move....The firm is not so good on executions , and it is limited to twenty thousand shares at a time, so day trading etc is just not possible....Plus if something bothers me I can ask him to see if there is any pertinent information that he can find....Usually nothing, and I don`t talk with him maybe once a quarter....
I had a person who really is very good and tied into the `big time`...unfortunately I got manipulated too easily, as he was extremely active, and I would end up on the short end.....I had to end that...as you did..
I have a Scottrade acc with very little in it, but it can be fun......I find if you have a reasonable commission involved, it makes you a bit more cautions, vs trade all you want at a fixed cost......Remember what Warren Buffett said`` I wish I could wake up in the morning and everyone was happy with what the owned``...His point being that the transaction costs are very undermining..
You are a good person Tag,and are willing to continue to try to find your niche...It (the niche) is ever changing and we just have to change with it.....
I bet everyone would love to go back to the sixties era, but alas the companies that are now the blue chip ones pg ko, etc are giants that can`t get out of their own way.....BUT if a lot of big money people get behind them they will run although they aren`t worth it.....Just the time the un-informed start to buy they fall on their face, and sit there month after month wallowing...finally the people take their loss and move on to the next group....commissions commissions commissions.....That`s the name of the game with the advisors--brokers-today.....My generation was to make money for the client, and the comm. took care of itself....A shame those types of people are gone....
Keep on` plugging`, we`r all in the same boat, and each of us in our own way shares these `up and downs` regularly.....Tony
I just have to say... you'd be the PERFECT uncle for my kids... a very wise and caring individual. Uncle Tony... yep, that's good.
Anyway, thanks for all the terrific and encouraging words.
Yes, it is a shame when we consider some of the things that we witness with regards to brokers and the market. They happen so often that they are almost a mattter of routine.
I suppose it could turn out to be a good thing that I am not invested in equities right now. But, I do intend to invest before a lot of time goes by. One of the things I am considering doing is to find a local field office for the same firm, so instead of changing firms, I will only change brokers. But, when I transfer everything to a different branch, I will also shift control of the majority of the equities to ME, and leave the broker with a smaller percentage under his control. Well, it's something to consider.
TM
I think if you make a deal for x number of cents per transaction , and the transactions are big enough to generate more than the minimum charge for them to get credit, you`l come out ahead of the game, and take full responsibility for the decisions.
I know the flaw in that statement is you like a good number of stocks at a shot, sort of your own mini mutual fund....To place an order like that, the brokerages don`t like it.....What they like is each order to generate more commission dollars....the better brokers buy a really large (to me) number of shares, say a million, and then divide it up with their discretionary accounts....Man the industry has changed so much......It isn`t the individuals (broker) fault as they have so much pressure to produce, but the discipline is now totally lacking, and what use to be gentlemen with integrity has gone by the wayside...That`s why I say `we are own our own`....One person I really trust is Bill Gross, but I sure don`t understand how he does what he does, and if you don`t have a hundred billion don`t even ask....
We haven`t even broached the subject of `quants`......but with your knowledge of the electronics world, you may be able to come up with your own mini program that would execute your list of stocks at the touch of a button....It`s all beyond me, but at least I know that..and that means something....Don`t do what you don`t know anything about....Tony
The broker will essentially oversee the fixed securities that already exist. I will be picking all the stocks.
TM
Maybe Jflic will mention the funds he has for his larger holdings....As you know I have been mostly in etf for a mixture of bonds, and other interest producing funds...I just never can drop my guard on any of them.....Tony