The Stock Market and Investing

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  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    When you describe Pelosi... I think you are being too kind. ;)

    TM
  • carnaughtcarnaught Member Posts: 3,601
    edited July 2011
    Too bad Pelosi can't utilize her "let's pass the bill to find out what's in it" mentallity that she used to pass the Dem.'s disasterous health care reform bill (aka Obamacare) :sick: .
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    edited July 2011
    Not so fast, Wizard of Oz!!!!

    Sen. John Hoeven, R-North Dakota, confirmed to CNN that the cuts to military spending were a sticking point.

    Boehner scheduled an 8:30 p.m. conference call with his House Republican caucus to discuss the situation.

    House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California, told reporters that she needs to see "the final product" in writing before she can decide if she supports it.

    Nancy P. is the man behind the screen! :surprise:

    Regards,
    OW
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited July 2011
    "News reports look bad. Seems like extreme Democrats might kill it."

    Don't worry about it. This IS a done deal. Dippo Pelosi is just posturing. On the other extreme side, the Tea Pargy can got to hell now. They will not be able to block this. I repeat, this is a done deal and the market already knows it.

    I will also repeat that te Dow will close at least 200 higher tomorrow.

    Btw, I had to use quotes above because for whatever reason, this forum page will not allow my iPad to copy and paste (stupid).
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited July 2011
    Probably not the fault of this page... More likely the iPad's clipboard is full. Try pasting whatever is the latest copied item, then delete it, and then try copying what you actually intend to copy.

    Otherwise, reboot.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited July 2011
    But I can copy and paste any other page. It is only this forum which has been impossible. Maybe Len can chime in with his iPad.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited July 2011
    I will also repeat that te Dow will close at least 200 higher tomorrow.

    I certainly agree, and I think everyone here also thinks that, and the futures indicate a strong market tomorrow. Like I posted, I think that's been a foregone conclusion.

    But, where we seem to disagree is that I think there will be a "reality check" after the rally, and you did not agree in a former post.

    This article JUST came out and it seems to support my view and disagree with yours.

    Monday Look Ahead: Debt Deal Rally Could be Short-Lived


    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Time will tell who will be right. I would think we will know by the end of the week.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    edited July 2011
    Well if you do the math they are saying 90-100 house dems will be in favor and Reid has endorsed the plan in the Senate. Boehner at 8:30 almost suredly will endorse the plan and if he had an overwhelming support of his plan the other day it's hard to understand how the house will not be in support of it now. The sticking point of military spending being cut as part of the trigger c'ant possibly be that big and if the dems are strong enough to agree to medicare as part of the trigger than it would be a crying shame if the reps are too scared to put the military spending on the line. Bottom line is if we ever default equities around the world will drop 20-30%, if not more and the amounts of money that may be a part of a thoretical trigger are a pittance compared to that. And guess what, I hope some of the far right and left have enough common sense that what they are trying to protect is out the window with a lot more if they d'ont think this out.

    Futures up 1.3% last time I looked.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited July 2011
    Time will tell who will be right. I would think we will know by the end of the week.

    Yes. Or the following week at the latest.

    Charlie... it just makes sense to me that we will have a huge knee-jerk reaction. Practically explosive in nature.

    A subsequent pullback is just as predictable, IMO, as is the huge rally. But like you said, time will tell who will be right.

    Now, I sure hope you figure out that iPad copying quirk. BTW, I am now thinking about getting the iPad3 later this year.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Those military cuts may never materialize because the real world will require military spending. We are very close to a serious situation in Iran. We cannot suddenly ignore it because of $$$. It won't just go away on its own. In fact, it will get worse until we have no choice but to deploy.

    You will see. Mark my words. Iran is a future military engagement.

    TM
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,805
    Barry just blabbed on TV about the new deal. Hopefully the speculators won't be able to profit from a downgrade. Weak currency is not what we need.

    There was more than one later cold war theory that had WW3 starting with an Iranian skirmish.
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    The Middle East will ALWAYS be in turmoil. Mark these words. :blush:

    Regards,
    OW
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    You know if the need for money is to to fight wars than there is an argument that you need to increase money supply and than once the war is over you decrease it. The problem at that point is that you have a new cost that isn't supported by the current money supply and you can't assume that there will always be someone there to lend. To me the Iranian situation is part of a Muslim sect problem among themselves. If there is a need for money to hold them back then we need phenomenal donations from the oil rich sunni Muslim contries, not loans, donations, to fight or resist Iran for them. The US is now too cash poor as a government to be the protectors of the earth.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    The Middle East will ALWAYS be in turmoil. Mark these words.

    Yes, that's a "matter of fact". You are stating the obvious.

    But.... you are replying to my concern that we will be engaged directly inside Iran. Now, that's a whole different story. That would be an extraordinary event, if it happens. Not a routine, typical, "that's life" norm.

    Or, did I miss your point? :blush:

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited July 2011
    I agree with you, but I think we are potentially going to see an unforeseen event involving Iran... perhaps nuclear. Something unprecedented.

    I certainly pray not.

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Shows you what happens when you let a far right view of religion rule you. Did you see that somewhere in London a Muslim put up Sharia rules all over a certain town saying that region was now governed by Sharia law?
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    It would be a shame Tag because Iran is essentially a very smart and potentially great country overrun and ruled by thugs. The original revolutionists have all been run out of town and as usual a small minority that represents the opposite of what the people want is ruling. Eventually the hope has to be that technology and the spread of good information defeats the stupidity of government in these regions. It would also help if we improved our relationships with Russia.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited July 2011
    Len,

    First of all, thank you much for your kind words about me above on one of your posts. You know that the feeling is mutual.

    As I stated earlier, this IS a done deal no question about it. After watching a conservatime Republican congressman from NY a little while ago, the House will easily pass this deal tomorrow. The Senate will also vote to pass it rather easily. I honestly feel that this is going to be huge for the market and not just for the near term either. I think this will have long term very positive effects. You watch. All the economic indicators will start to look more bullish a few months from now.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited July 2011
    All the economic indicators will start to look more bullish a few months from now.

    HA!... You said that earlier in the year, and just the opposite has happened!! ;)

    After your optimistic assessment, we had quite a sizeable correction, and it went on for many WEEKS!... and then just as it finally started to improve, we got a debt crisis!... and during that debt crisis, we got revised GDP numbers that are not good, and recent GDP numbers that are also not good!... and some of the earnings reports were great, but not all of them. Even CAT caused some market jitters.

    Plenty of MIXED signals.

    So... I hope you are right this time!! :)

    That said, I actually tend to agree with you this time... and as I already posted, I am optimistic, but cautious.

    TM
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,805
    The lunatics who have invaded Britain are actually demanding 3 Sharia zones. The saddest part is that the lunatics who opened the doors just sit back and pick their noses.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,805
    "The US is now too cash poor as a government to be the protectors of the earth. "

    And really, we have been for decades. IMO a huge part of our debt problem is the policeman of the world ideal. The military-industrial complex is in complete control.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited July 2011
    So far the media doesn't have a very positive view of this deal... especially longer term. I have been switching between Fox, CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, MSNBC... mostly Fox and CNN. There are many serious concerns.

    Charlie... If these talking heads are right, we are going to have plenty more rounds of trouble ahead.

    Best line of the night..."This deal helps create jobs the same way I saved a life tonight by not killing someone!"

    Anyway... seems like most of them hate this deal and they predict serious troubles ahead... including serious market declines after the euphoria wears off. :surprise:

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Stated simply, it's part of our defense budget to police the ME forever....to protect our energy source. Iran, Iraq, Libya, Israel, Syria... vicious, revolving cycle.

    Regards,
    OW
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Yes, seems like extremism is popping up more frequently are the economic realities bite harder.

    Once the balance in any religion moves to extremism, seems there are many who mindlessly jump on the truck. :sick:

    Regards,
    OW
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Don't forget Saudi Arabia. FDR pledged to protect the royal family into eternity in exchange for keeping oil tied to the US Dollar. First Gulf war was to protect the Saudis. Saddam was headed their direction when we stopped him.

    TM
    ON the negative comments from the MSM. You have remember they are all different shades of liberal bias. That includes Faux news. Murdoch is no friend of conservative values. He is greedy elitism through and through.

    I read one very Liberal writer this morning claiming the Tea Party won. He claims they do not care that much about the wars in the ME and cutting the size of government is front and center. Which he claims has brought down Neoconservatism. It will be interesting if what he claims is true. The TP may be very close to joining forces with Libertarians. Giving US a viable 3rd party for the first time in at least 100 years.

    http://news.yahoo.com/tea-party-won-deal-055100156.html
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Stated simply, it's part of our defense budget to police the ME forever....to protect our energy source. Iran, Iraq, Libya, Israel, Syria... vicious, revolving cycle.

    Yeah... it's a terrible shame. Not achieving energy independence has been one of the most tragic political and economic mistakes this country has ever made, and continues to make... although I now see the first flicker of light at the end of the tunnel.

    Having an actual military confrontation with any of those countries is a very dangerous scenario. It's like a row of dominos... a chain reaction. The risk for escalation to the larger region is huge, and dangerous. That's why Iran's very reeal and growing nuclear threat is one of the worst things to happen to the region, especially when we consider that the news media now reports that Al Queda terrorists have been taking an increasing foothold inside Iran lately, especially since Bin Laden was killed, and when we consider that Iran's nuclear program is soon to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the target of their choice... which is almost certainly Israel and quite likely the Unbited States. It's a terribly unfortunate development. I would assume that Israel will ultimately have to make a tough decision, and they will be blamed by the world for it, which will bring even more tension and hostility to the region. I honestly believe that this is one of the very worst situations ever to develop in the Middle East, and it is happening little by little, until one day the world will be faced with a serious and unprecedented dilemma in that region.

    TM
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The only way to turn around our failed States and Federal Government, is with serious job cuts. The public sector is choking the private sector of jobs. With very negative impact on our economy. HSBC is facing reality. Our Federal Government needs to cut at least 10% of the FAT. I am sure Obama could get by with 200 less people in his entourage.

    LONDON (Reuters) - HSBC will shed 30,000 jobs as it retreats from countries where it is struggling to compete, Europe's biggest bank said on Monday after it reported a surprise rise in first-half profit.

    Shares in HSBC rose over 4 percent after it unveiled first-half pretax profits of $11.5 billion, up from $11.1 billion a year ago and better than the $10.8 billion average in a Reuters poll of analysts.

    The bank also said it had cut 5,000 jobs following restructuring of operations in Latin America, the United States, Britain, France and the Middle East and that it would cut another 25,000 between now and 2013.

    "There will be further job cuts," Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver told reporters on a conference call. "There will be something like 25,000 roles eliminated between now and the end of 2013."

    The cuts equate to roughly 10 percent of HSBC's total workforce. They come on top of planned reductions in overall headcount in a program of disposals that also forms part of a plan to focus on HSBC's Asian operations.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited August 2011
    WOW!

    Where's Charlie's 200 point gain? I totally agreed with him that it would happen... and I also posted that I expected a subsequent "reality check"... but the reality check has come so soon!!

    REALITY CHECK could be very negative. At one point, the market had actually FALLEN almost 200 points since it's opening high. :surprise:

    TM
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    It could be jitters over Pelosi negativism about the deal. I think she was trying to undo the whole deal without looking like the bad guy. Until it is signed by the Prez it may not be real positive for the market.

    I was watching and researching GMCR. It jumped and then dropped back quickly. Looking at who owns the stock it is 77% institutional. With 16 million shares shorted. I wish I had known about it when it sold for $26 per share. Not interested now.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I will go out on a limb and give Obama, O'Connell, Reid and Boehner all equal praise for hammering out a deal. I may not think it goes far enough. If it is basically what they are saying it should be a good start on returning to sanity in Washington DC.

    At least it will not put US as deep in debt as Japan. :sick:
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    At least it will not put US as deep in debt as Japan.

    A TWENTY year road to recovery... and still counting.

    Proof that it CAN happen.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited August 2011
    HA!... You said that earlier in the year, and just the opposite has happened!!

    Oh! Hang on a minute there cowboy. :)

    First, let me start by stating that I never expected the market to trade lower today. Evidently, a very negative economic indicator (ISM number?) came out about a half hour after the opening. Regardless, I am optimistic about both the near term and long term.

    Now as to your statement above, I don't think I ever talked about the economic indicators in the past. What I did talk about were things like consumer spending will increase with a drop in energy prices. I also pointed to the Japanese crisis as a reason for a correction and also a big reason for a return to bullishness. I don't ever remember mentioning things like GDP in the past. I have been optimistic on the market since way back in the spring of 2009. I got scared about the market after the Japanese crisis and I agreed with you on a correction.

    About a month ago when you were running scared :D , I was actually rather optimistic about the market and I was proven right as the Dow either got back to its high from earlier in the year or made a slight new high. At that time, the market had no real concerns about a debt ceiling crisis. However, as the deadline for a deal got closer and closer and the concerns mounted for a default, the market tanked (especially last week). I was very scared this past week until yesterday.

    So here we are today and I am now quite optimistic about the market going forward for both the short term and long term. I think this is the first time I used the words "economic indicators". Last night I said that these indicators will start to turn more bullish a few months from now. There is obviously a lag on these things, so I am not sure about the phrase "a few months from now". Maybe it will take a little longer than a few months but it will happen. In my opinion, things will definitely stabilize going forward and we will see a big time rally (new highs for sure in the Dow...way over 13,000 by the end of the year).

    Finally, please don't take this as if I am criticizing you. I am NOT. I am just pointing out the facts about WHAT I SAID and did not say in the past. I am dead wrong already today, so I could be full of you know what in the future. But I doubt that will be the case :) .
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 58,805
    More like focusing on Chinese blood money.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited August 2011
    Dude (couldn't resist... being from California, and a beach town at that)...

    Nothing is taken personal here. We are friends forever, no matter what. Thanks for clarifying that perhaps you didn't use those economic indicator words, but you DID suggest the market was going to be up shortly before it actually went down. Just like this morning. Those economic reports have been bombarding the market for quite a while, because Obama's economic policies aren't working. If it wasn't for the international nature of corporate earnings, I think the market would be in a real pickle.

    I'll just laugh at your reference that I ran scared... you are funny. I did the right thing by getting mostly out during that VERY long correction. That's not being scared, that's being smart, IMO. Heck, I've done some crazy things that have proven that I am not scared. You (or someone) even told me I have balls of steel on one occassion, and that you'd sh-t in your pants on another occassion if you had traded like I did. So, I've got plenty of guts (and stupidity now and then) when it comes to trading and investing.

    I love your optimism. I have always loved it, and I've said so once in a while. But, I haven't always agreed with it... although I've been optimistic overall most of the time. I just believe that the market is VERY volatile at this time in history, and I believe that it is smart to avoid signifcant downturns, when and if possible. My timing does not always work, as I've learned the hard way once in a while, and I've made plenty of mistakes... but overall it is a VERY good way for me to trade/invest and I like the way I stay in control of my investments.

    I think the market has a LOT of pent up demand and will ultimately have a VERY big rally before the end of this year. But, I never ignore the reality check of those pesky economic indicators. Obama's policies are tricky for the market.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited August 2011
    If it wasn't for the international nature of corporate earnings, I think the market would be in a real pickle.

    Oops! I forgot to mention on my post that one of my main reasons for optimism has been (for a long time now) has been great earnings reports.

    you DID suggest the market was going to be up shortly before it actually went down. Just like this morning.

    It did go up nicely starting about a month ago until this debt ceiling fiasco recently. I already admitted that I am dead wrong about today. This ISM number and concerns about Italy (again) totally unraveled the market after the opening. But this too shall pass and the market will start to look forward to an improving economy down the road.

    "You (or someone) even told me I have balls of steel on one occassion, and that you'd sh-t in your pants on another occassion if you had traded like I did."

    Guilty as charged! I did say that.

    "I believe that it is smart to avoid signifcant downturns, when and if possible. My timing does not always work, as I've learned the hard way once in a while, and I've made plenty of mistakes... but overall it is a VERY good way for me to trade/invest and I like the way I stay in control of my investments. "

    One needs to trade the way that it works for him. Let's face it. You are a short term trader and I am a longer term (but not as long term as some here). As long as I do not see a total collapse in the market as I did back in 2008, I like to keep a longer term perspective. At this time, I certainly do not see a total collapse but on the contrary a resumption of the bull market soon.

    "I love your optimism. I have always loved it, and I've said so once in a while. But, I haven't always agreed with it..."

    Thank you! I obviously take this as a compliment even though my optimism turns out to be dead wrong sometimes (like this morning :sick: ). But again, this bad news this morning will be forgotten soon (I hope!).

    "Nothing is taken personal here. We are friends forever, no matter what."

    The feeling is mutual.

    EDIT: As you can see, I am having a devil of a time copying and pasting properly. I finally gave up and used quotes for some portion.
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,357
    The market is telling us that it doesn't like this deal. So is the Tea party. My thought is that it might not pass. Too little too late.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited August 2011
    The market is telling us that it doesn't like this deal.

    I think so. And, that it is not totally certain the deal will pass. More uncertainty.

    And, the direction of our economy is also more uncertainty.

    That said, I tend to agree with Charlie on the long-term outlook... but I am not as optimistic as he is. I do think it's likely that the market will be higher than it is currently by the end of the year... although it isn't a slam dunk by any means. The fundamentals might not be as good next quarter and the earnings reports may not be quite as good either, so that puts serious pressure on upward movement for the market.

    Picking the "right" stocks will be necessary.

    TM
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,754
    edited August 2011
    I am having a devil of a time copying and pasting properly. I finally gave up and used quotes for some portion.

    It might be easier just to drag the cursor over the quoted part and click on the "B" box below and make it bold to show it's a quote! :blush:
    Note how it looks where I quoted your post above.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,754
    edited August 2011
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43946055/ns/business-us_business/

    The article expounds on each of these topics:

    1. Inflation

    2. Investments have begun to yield less

    3. The auto industry

    4. Oil prices

    5. The federal budget

    6. China economy slows

    7. Unemployment

    8. Debt ceiling

    9. Access To credit

    10. Housing

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    This is exactly what I was doing on a laptop (not iPad on at one), but somehow, it got all screwed up toward the end. This time I am replying on the iPad and it is hopeless to try a copy and paste.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    ... I am replying on the iPad and it is hopeless...

    Hmmm.

    Just another damned dysfunctional Apple product. :surprise:

    My daughter's MacBook Pro has printing issues now and then, and it can NOT be explained by anyone, including Apple. In addition, sometimes her internet browser will not display certain items within a web page.

    When she has trouble, she interrupts me, and uses my Windows desktop, and everything prints just fine and displays perfectly. ;)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    edited August 2011
    I think you are right. We are flirting with another visit to the land of recession... and that sucks.

    The economy is too fragile, and many of the States are in terrible financial condition. Obama & Co. have really let us down.

    I am becoming less optimistic by the minute today. The more I have watched the market's behavior, the news reports, and the analysts, the more I am really starting to have second thoughts about investing in the stock market in any significant level. I am going to look into fixed securities, and perhaps create a ratio of MORE fixed securities and LESS equities... at least for a while.

    Is this country broken?

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Just another damned dysfunctional Apple product.

    I only have this copying problem with the iPad on this site.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I am becoming less optimistic by the minute today. The more I have watched the market's behavior, the news reports, and the analysts, the more I am really starting to have second thoughts about investing in the stock market in any significant level.

    That's the problem. You are watching too many talking heads talk doom and gloom. They all all suck.

    All you need to do is listen to Charlie and you will be in great shape :D . We are not going into another recession. It will be the opposite.
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,754
    Does the IPad have the latest update of Java on it?

    I would check. I recall some of us had troubles with seeing some things within the posting windows for Edmunds. I believe it had something to do with my Java and my XP MediaCenter (Pro) updates from Microsoft in conflict.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    All you need to do is listen to Charlie

    and you will be in great shape . We are not going into another recession. It will be the opposite.

    Lol... You are probably right. This has been the craziest year with the stock market EVER since the big meltdown. Frankly, I can't stand it anymore. I think it's starting to get to me. I used to enjoy investing and trading. Now I hate it.

    The market is nuts, our government is nuts, and our President is an idiot. And, on top of that, those talking heads have really made me dizzy. I don't think I've heard more doom & gloom in any single day since the meltdown.

    TM
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I have read several reviews of the new Samsung Galaxy 10.1 tablet. In direct head to head with iPad2 the Galaxy is leading. Will Korean Giant Samsung take sales from the much smaller Chinese Apple Corp? The biggest obstacle to unseating Apple is the Cult like following. I think Apple needs to spend some of that cash horde on diversification.

    Don't forget HTC a clear competitor for the iPhones. They have also jumped into the Tablet wars. All good for the consumer.

    Samsung has launched the revised edition of Galaxy Tabs , the Galaxy Tab 8.9 and Galaxy Tab 10.1 . The new Samsung Galaxy Tab is lighter and Thinner than Apple iPad 2 . We compared the tech specifications of Apple iPad 2 and Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 . In the specs comparison Galaxy Tab looks stronger than Apple iPad 2.

    http://www.techifire.com/gadgets/apple-ipad-2-vs-new-samsung-galaxy-tab-10-1/
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Does the IPad have the latest update of Java on it?

    I don't know for sure but I doubt it. I still have the iPad1 but I did have some software upgrades on it. I doubt that included a Java update. I'm purchasing the iPad3 when it is released in the fall.
  • houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,357
    edited August 2011
    Nearly everyone in the MSM and most liberal politicians, including our VP Joe Biden, has called the Tea Party terrorists and said they are threatening to blow up the country, they are holding America hostage, etc., etc.

    If there is anything at all funny or ironic about any of this, it is that these very same people absolutely refuse to call real terrorists, terrorists !! :)

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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