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The Stock Market and Investing

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    The quote function seems to be messed up on the site.

    As I stated the other day, AMZN should drop like a rock to no more than $100. It's nothing short of amazing how Wall Street has kept this stock up for so long.

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    Did anyone buy Twitter. I bought 600 shares before the earnings announcement. Now I'm kicking myself for not having bought more. I simply used logic. Dick Costolo was scheduled to be on CNBC just as the earnings were do out. No way is he showing up on CNBC right at that moment if the earnings weren't stellar.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited July 2014

    @ljflx said:
    Did anyone buy Twitter. I bought 600 shares before the earnings announcement. Now I'm kicking myself for not having bought more. I simply used logic. Dick Costolo was scheduled to be on CNBC just as the earnings were do out. No way is he showing up on CNBC right at that moment if the earnings weren't stellar.

    That's fantastic Len. You made 35% just like that. I didn't watch CNBC at all today until a half hour or so ago because I was busy trading soybeans and corn. I had no idea Costolo was going to be interviewed until I tuned in just at that moment when TWTR earnings was announced. Your timing is impeccable.

    Instead of going after TWTR like you did, my FB that I bought there other day is a loser so far. Oh well. It's a long term trade.

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    Charlie,

    I'd have bought more of Twitter but I had made a much bigger investment today. When my partners and I sold out we each bought back a small stake in the new company. They made an acquisition today and I upped my investment so that I would not get diluted. I like their future plans of buying more companies and then selling out in 5 years. I expect to triple or quadruple the investments I made. I also closed on the land in Florida today. I had almost forgotten to buy Twitter. I made a note of it this morning as soon as i had heard that Costolo was going to be on at 4PM then got all sidetracked by the land closing and the instructions to my banker to wire the new investment.

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    BTW Charlie - I had posted a few days ago that I thought a good earnings report would drive Twitter into the 50's. I had planned to buy 1,000 shares but then I got the call on the company investment to keep myself from getting diluted and I didn't want to sell any of my Apple. So I was going to pass on Twitter altogether but then I saw CNBC advertising Costolo would be on at the same time as the earnings announcement and just knew I had to buy. Frankly he has little charisma to my eyes and I think he's a lousy speaker but at the same time he looks like the type that would only go on the air with a timing like that if he knew those earnings would shoot the share price up.

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    I took a 22% gain on Twitter and traded right out of it. I don't trust that stock. I completely buy the theory that the world cup drove up the user base and that it's transient users who probably joined but will go silent. I also don't know where this company goes with a strategy. It's still small and I don't think that much of Costolo. Facebook has much more potential and I think it's the new Google with a lot of upside to go and for that reason I traded out of Twitter and into it. I honestly think Twitter needs to get bought out or it fails long term.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    Wow, what a day in the market. This is the end of the month BS. It's a buying opportunity.

    Len, If I had known about Costolo being a guest on CNBC after the bell, I may have jumped on TWTR as well.

    In any case, all is good. I'm not worried.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    Just so you know I don't only live and die with Apple, I bought 100 shares of SPY on the dip today at 193.20. I now have 395 shares. I once had 600 but took profits on 500 shares at an average price of about 197. Since then I have built it back up to 395 shares that I own. I am very confident that the stock market will sky-rocket again probably starting next week. The "big boys" have been looking for any sort of excuse to sell off the market.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited August 2014

    If you guys recall, I indicated that I was writing a book about my life. Well, the book is now available on Amazon. It is called "From Hell to Iowa." It's a journey that very few have taken. Escaping from communist Albania many years ago as a 10 year old and eventually ending up in Iowa, my story is full of miraculous adventures.

    It just became available on paperback a few days ago and it will be available on eBooks and hard cover soon. I believe it will be on iBooks and Barnes and Noble shortly as well. I'm pretty certain you folks will enjoy reading it. I'm anxious to get your opinion if any of you read it. There has been zero promotion yet and in fact this is the first time I mentioned that the book is available.

    As an aside, it's ironic that I hate the Amazon stock but my book is available there. Oh well!

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    @cyclone4 said:
    If you guys recall, I indicated that I was writing a book about my life. Well, the book is now available on Amazon. It is called "From Hell to Iowa." It's a journey that very few have taken. Escaping from communist Albania many years ago as a 10 year old and eventually ending up in Iowa, my story is full of miraculous adventures.

    It just became available on paperback a few days ago and it will be available on eBooks and hard cover soon. I believe it will be on iBooks and Barnes and Noble shortly as well. I'm pretty certain you folks will enjoy reading it. I'm anxious to get your opinion if any of you read it. There has been zero promotion yet and in fact this is the first time I mentioned that the book is available.

    As an aside, it's ironic that I hate the Amazon stock but my book is available there. Oh well!

    Sounds good will check it out. Hope you sell a million copies.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    @gagrice said:
    Sounds good will check it out. Hope you sell a million copies.

    Thank you very much!

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    houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,327

    Charlie, that is great ! Congrats, you should be very proud of all you have accomplished !!

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    @houdini1 said:
    Charlie, that is great ! Congrats, you should be very proud of all you have accomplished !!

    Houdini, I greatly appreciate your good wishes.

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    I'm getting tempted to buy Wynn. It took a nice dip today. Missed the boat on this when it dipped to $100. It's got great cash flow and a stronger economy probably pushes it up 40-50% in the next 12-15 months.

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    Charlie - best of luck with the book.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    Thank you Len! So, did you buy Wynn?

    What do you think of the Chinese government recommending not to buy iPads and Macs? Is there a way around that?

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    Yeah. I swapped out 500 shares of Apple for it late yesterday. Apple is in a funk right now.

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    Big Question, What does Soros know. Or is he manipulating the market with his $billions?

    Does George Soros know something we don’t about the S&P 500?
    Oh, goody. It’s 13F time, when mere mortals like us get to see how the big boys rolled the dice in the last quarter.

    Among the highlights, Soros Fund Management increased a bear-call bet on the S&P 500 in a huge way. The fund lifted a put position — a bet the market will go lower — on the S&P 500 ETF SPY -0.06% to its biggest size yet, in terms of value and portfolio percentage, making a 605% leap over the previous quarter.

    Bullion Baron, who has long kept a beady eye on Soros’s SPY moves, has summed up the latest dealings. He speculated that this could be a hedge — or Soros is really worried about something. One possible something is China, which the hedge-fund titan referred to as a global uncertainty earlier in the year, notes the Baron.

    Soros also lifted positions in Apple and Facebook and a portfolio loaded up with stocks, so he can’t possibly be all that gloomy.

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to-know/2014/08/15/does-george-soros-know-something-we-dont-about-the-sp-500/

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    ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690

    Too many positive outlooks on Apple now to keep me out for long. So I bought back the small position I sold. I also went to redeem my $100 gift card at the mall store at lunch time yesterday and couldn't believe how crowded that store was on a dead mall day.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    I'm thinking AAPL will explode to all time highs by at least by $10-15 after the release of the next iPhone. Everything I hear and read sounds very exciting. A sapphire screen now seems very likely for at least one of the iPhone sizes along with the iWatch. Apple will more or less have a monopoly on this technology due to their partnership with GTAT. I read an article last night that the sapphire screen may not even cost any more than the Corning glass would cost due to a new technology that will make a synthetic sapphire glass.

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    carnaughtcarnaught Member Posts: 3,498
    edited August 2014

    Re: appl., I'm waiting for a couple of more points of a rise, then I'm out. I'll take my profit, then run.

    It may very well precipitously rise when the new iPhone 6 comes to fruition, but, if the stock drops before the release, and/or if there are supply problems, failure to meet expectations or unexpected glitches, the stock could again settle into the low 90's. (Probably won't happen if I sell ;).)

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    @carnaught said:
    Re: appl., I'm waiting for a couple of more points of a rise, then I'm out. I'll take my profit, then run.

    It may very well precipitously rise when the new iPhone 6 comes to fruition, but, if the stock drops before the release, and/or if there are supply problems, failure to meet expectations or unexpected glitches, the stock could again settle into the low 90's. (Probably won't happen if I sell ;).)

    Believe it or not, I placed a sell stop on a third of my shares. Today's action was very encouraging.

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    @cyclone4 said:

    Well, in case you are wondering, I did get stopped on a third of my shares at an average price of about $101.50 or so. It plummeted on all the negative stories this morning. Nude photos, Samsung's latest and greatest, etc.

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    You may have seen this already using the iPhone as a medical platform. Pretty amazing stuff.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r13uYs7jglg#t=121

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302

    Thanks! If we had more doctors in this country like the doctor on this video, healthcare costs would go way down I believe. This doctor is incredible.

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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666

    Gary,

    Thanks for that. Let me be the first to announce: "Apple Care" (iCare for short!) to replace Obama Care.

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Who is and is not Bullish on TSLA? Or should I say Elon Musk?

    http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/09/26/telsa-motor-stock-rating/
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    houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,327
    edited September 2014
    I'll just say that I don't own any tsla stock, and don't plan to own any at this time.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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    carnaughtcarnaught Member Posts: 3,498
    Musk: Short term, noop.....long term ???
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Bullish on Musk.
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    houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,327
    Well, on the bright side, this really looks like a good buying opportunity !!!

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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    laurasdadalaurasdada Member Posts: 4,733
    :( Retirement just got pushed back another few years...

    '21 Dark Blue/Black Audi A7 PHEV (mine); '22 White/Beige BMW X3 (hers); '20 Estoril Blue/Oyster BMW M240xi 'Vert (Ours, read: hers in 'vert weather; mine during Nor'easters...)

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    carnaughtcarnaught Member Posts: 3,498
    edited October 2014
    I'm not into losing, and it's too hard to beat the big trader/manipulators in the Market.

    I go to Vegas to see the shows and people watch. ;).
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    Retirement for private sector workers of my generation is a pipe dream anyway, best to just sit back and let it ride.
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    robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    Stock market makes no sense. Facebook announced results today:

    Revenue UP
    Income UP
    Margins UP
    Net Income UP
    EPS UP

    Stock Down 5.5%

    ARRRRRGGGGHHHHHH!!!

    I'm guessing they didn't meet the analysts sky high expectations I wonder if the 10% increase in the past 14 days has anything to do with it? ;)
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    tlongtlong Member Posts: 5,194
    fintail said:

    Retirement for private sector workers of my generation is a pipe dream anyway, best to just sit back and let it ride.

    Not for those who spend well below their means and invest wisely. Of course nobody can predict the future. But those who don't at least try - well then you are correct.
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    edited October 2014
    Not sure if you realize what the reality is for younger people vs a luckier generation.

    It'd be interesting to compare retirement abilities of public and private sector, or people by generation, comparing income vs cost of living.

    blockquote class="Quote" rel="tlong">

    Not for those who spend well below their means and invest wisely. Of course nobody can predict the future. But those who don't at least try - well then you are correct.

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    tlongtlong Member Posts: 5,194
    fintail said:

    Not sure if you realize what the reality is for younger people vs a luckier generation.

    It'd be interesting to compare retirement abilities of public and private sector, or people by generation, comparing income vs cost of living.


    Well given that I have one just out of college on first job and another in college, I do have some familiarity with the situation. :)

    Yes, it would be interesting to see some of those statistics.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I have two nephews and a niece that have graduated in the last 4 years. All are doing very well. One engineer, two in sales. The latest an engineer went to work at $75k and was sent to some podunk town in Colorado. Working for Schlumberger. If you cannot save a lot of money on $75k per year you are living too close to your income. Of course putting the max into your 401K is a no brainer.
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    robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    gagrice said:

    I have two nephews and a niece that have graduated in the last 4 years. All are doing very well. One engineer, two in sales. The latest an engineer went to work at $75k and was sent to some podunk town in Colorado. Working for Schlumberger. If you cannot save a lot of money on $75k per year you are living too close to your income. Of course putting the max into your 401K is a no brainer.

    Unless of course one is living in a high cost area like SF, NY or Boston. 75K in those places doesn't go far.
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    slorenzenslorenzen Member Posts: 694
    robr2 said:

    gagrice said:

    I have two nephews and a niece that have graduated in the last 4 years. All are doing very well. One engineer, two in sales. The latest an engineer went to work at $75k and was sent to some podunk town in Colorado. Working for Schlumberger. If you cannot save a lot of money on $75k per year you are living too close to your income. Of course putting the max into your 401K is a no brainer.

    Unless of course one is living in a high cost area like SF, NY or Boston. 75K in those places doesn't go far.
    Or some place like Seattle. Their prices look a lot like the SF area...
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    edited November 2014
    And both relying on parental largesse? Sounds like a personal problem ;) More common today than in the past, due to what was mentioned before.

    Those starting out today won't have the good fortune of buying or investing in the market that existed when you were 30 vs that when I was 30, or today. Not to mention the less demanding work environment, less expensive education system, lower cost of living relative to wages, etc.

    I know of two from that era era who have just sold houses. One bought in 1987 for 210K, the other in 1989 for 240K. Former sold for 1.1MM, latter for 1.6MM. That's common in the area where I live . And such a windfall won't be repeated, even with the influx of sketchy investor visa money into the local property market.
    tlong said:



    Well given that I have one just out of college on first job and another in college, I do have some familiarity with the situation. :)

    Yes, it would be interesting to see some of those statistics.

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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    edited November 2014
    If a single person here can't be relatively comfortable on 75K/yr, they are doing something wrong, or have huge debt. But even at that income, there's no way in hell you'll ever own a detached house within a reasonable distance from high paying employment areas, unless mommy and daddy front a substantial down. Without that, maybe if you're lucky, a condo within a mildly hellish commute from work. And if one has kids, fughetaouddit, get used to living way out there.

    On that note, I have a friend who moved to Atlanta for work, loved the cheap housing (perfectly decent tract house 10 mins from work for the price of the average E-class)....for awhile. He couldn't wait to come back to this place, I guess even with the bleeding hearts and dreary weather and traffic, the quality of life is high. Perhaps it's true, you gotta pay to play.
    slorenzen said:



    Or some place like Seattle. Their prices look a lot like the SF area...

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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited November 2014
    fintail said:



    I know of two from that era era who have just sold houses. One bought in 1987 for 210K, the other in 1989 for 240K. Former sold for 1.1MM, latter for 1.6MM. That's common in the area where I live . And such a windfall won't be repeated, even with the influx of sketchy investor visa money into the local property market.



    It's nice to see a bit of life on the forum.

    I know exactly what you mean about the cost of housing in Seattle. My son and his family live there and I cannot believe how expensive housing is. One can buy a very nice house in Des Moines for $300-400K. That same house in Seattle would probably go for over a $million.

    By the way, for those of you interested, I will be interviewed on IPR (Iowa Public Radio) to talk about my book, "From Hell to Iowa", at 10:00 AM Central this next Wednesday, November 5. It's an hour long show called, "Talk of Iowa" with Charity Nebbe. You can find it online at iowapublicradio.com. You can even call and ask questions.
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    cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    edited November 2014
    A made an error and I deleted the body of this second post. Sorry. I wanted to delete entire post, but I don't see how.
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    tlongtlong Member Posts: 5,194
    fintail said:

    And both relying on parental largesse? Sounds like a personal problem ;) More common today than in the past, due to what was mentioned before.

    Those starting out today won't have the good fortune of buying or investing in the market that existed when you were 30 vs that when I was 30, or today. Not to mention the less demanding work environment, less expensive education system, lower cost of living relative to wages, etc.

    I know of two from that era era who have just sold houses. One bought in 1987 for 210K, the other in 1989 for 240K. Former sold for 1.1MM, latter for 1.6MM. That's common in the area where I live . And such a windfall won't be repeated, even with the influx of sketchy investor visa money into the local property market.

    Nobody can refute your argument because nobody can know the future. You might be right, and you might be wrong.

    I can tell you that the 70's when I graduated HS were a terrible time for the market,, the economy, and our beliefs that anything would get better. Inflation was rampant. In the early 80's we were all sure that the US was over and the Japanese were killing us with better cars, etc. There were gas lines and the economy was in a shambles. We were sure that Japan would rule the world. So the lesson learned is that how things look at the time are usually very different than what actually plays out. One can have a defeatist attitude about it, which pretty much guarantees the outcome that is expected. Or one can make the best decisions possible and we all hope the world ends up in a way that is beneficial to us. Being in the top 10% isn't so bad, either. :)

    As far as Seattle or any major city repeating the property values, well some of these high priced locations were the backwaters 20-30 years ago. Your town may not repeat, but perhaps the smart move is the next big boom location, wherever that may be. ;)

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    slorenzenslorenzen Member Posts: 694
    edited November 2014
    "I can tell you that the 70's when I graduated HS were a terrible time for the market,, the economy, and our beliefs that anything would get better. Inflation was rampant. In the early 80's we were all sure that the US was over..."

    I remember how bad it was during those times. Remember the misery index?

    My wife and I were living in the SF bay area, and were convinced we would never be able to afford a home of our own.

    I also remember when I sold my home in the silicon valley area in 1993, for $270K, thinking how insane the prices were.

    Sure wish I could have kept that place. It's now selling for around a million. Still just a crackerbox tract house...

    tlong, the more things change...
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    The problem with Des Moines is the commute into employment centers, and to some extent, the surrounding area. It can go downhill pretty past, at least by PNW standards, which isn't as rough as much of the nation. Heck, my mother lives out on the coast, one can find lovely houses out there for 200K or even less - but location is key, and there, you don't have it.

    I see your book gets good reviews on Amazon, congrats.





    It's nice to see a bit of life on the forum.

    I know exactly what you mean about the cost of housing in Seattle. My son and his family live there and I cannot believe how expensive housing is. One can buy a very nice house in Des Moines for $300-400K. That same house in Seattle would probably go for over a $million.

    By the way, for those of you interested, I will be interviewed on IPR (Iowa Public Radio) to talk about my book, "From Hell to Iowa", at 10:00 AM Central this next Wednesday, November 5. It's an hour long show called, "Talk of Iowa" with Charity Nebbe. You can find it online at iowapublicradio.com. You can even call and ask questions.


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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    edited November 2014
    Well, if one was a betting man...

    You still got started at an easier time than today (especially in terms of education, workplace competition, and cost of living) even with inflation and malaise and Japan, and I think you know that, even if you won't say it. Some use distraction and say defeatist, some live in the real world and are hence realistic. Hope for the best, but don't expect it. Smoke and fire are inherently related. On a positive note, I can say I am glad I started out when I did, and not today - if anything, I'd probably have hit the ground with thrice as much loan debt.

    As far as property values, you are in among that lucky group with yours too, no doubt. Those of my generation and younger mostly won't have that luck, will need more luck, or even more than luck (as it is luck, no matter how the stereotypical grizzled greybeard in Seattle thinks he's the second coming of Warren Buffett because he bought a house in 1977 with a high school diploma and a 40 hour a week job). This place wasn't a backwater 25 years ago, but speculation, a coddled FIRE industry, and idiotic demographic policy have created a monster. I know very few in my peer group who "own" and didn't get help from mommy and daddy. Maybe the smart move is for housing to not be subsidized, and to not worry about it.
    tlong said:



    Nobody can refute your argument because nobody can know the future. You might be right, and you might be wrong.

    I can tell you that the 70's when I graduated

    As far as Seattle or any major city repeating the property values, well some of these high priced locations were the backwaters 20-30 years ago. Your town may not repeat, but perhaps the smart move is the next big boom location, wherever that may be. ;)

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    houdini1houdini1 Member Posts: 8,327
    edited November 2014
    tlong said:

    fintail said:

    And both relying on parental largesse? Sounds like a personal problem ;) More common today than in the past, due to what was mentioned before.

    Those starting out today won't have the good fortune of buying or investing in the market that existed when you were 30 vs that when I was 30, or today. Not to mention the less demanding work environment, less expensive education system, lower cost of living relative to wages, etc.

    I know of two from that era era who have just sold houses. One bought in 1987 for 210K, the other in 1989 for 240K. Former sold for 1.1MM, latter for 1.6MM. That's common in the area where I live . And such a windfall won't be repeated, even with the influx of sketchy investor visa money into the local property market.

    Nobody can refute your argument because nobody can know the future. You might be right, and you might be wrong.

    I can tell you that the 70's when I graduated HS were a terrible time for the market,, the economy, and our beliefs that anything would get better. Inflation was rampant. In the early 80's we were all sure that the US was over and the Japanese were killing us with better cars, etc. There were gas lines and the economy was in a shambles. We were sure that Japan would rule the world. So the lesson learned is that how things look at the time are usually very different than what actually plays out. One can have a defeatist attitude about it, which pretty much guarantees the outcome that is expected. Or one can make the best decisions possible and we all hope the world ends up in a way that is beneficial to us. Being in the top 10% isn't so bad, either. :)

    As far as Seattle or any major city repeating the property values, well some of these high priced locations were the backwaters 20-30 years ago. Your town may not repeat, but perhaps the smart move is the next big boom location, wherever that may be. ;)

    It is nice to see some posts here for a change. I agree with you tiong. Each generation has its ups and downs. I remember signing for a 10% mortgage in 1980, and I was glad to get it. Some mortgage rates went to almost 20%. But it is what it is. You just deal with it.

    Congrats cyclone. I have heard parts of your story, and what you and your family had to go through is just unbelievable. I will try to catch your interview if possible.

    2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460

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