The Stock Market and Investing

tlong · November 2014

There's no doubt that certain aspects of the situation were easier 30 years ago than they are today. IMHO it's not reasonable to expect parity in almost any dimension between different generations. Some things get better and some things get worse. But change is certain.

Nobody can know the future and we can be optimistic and do our best, or lament the lost opportunities of the past that we don't have. Yet I'm sure there are opportunities of today that I didn't have, either.

Regarding housing - who says buying a home is a good idea, anyway? I believe that statistically over time, housing has more or less kept up with inflation, while the stock market has done far better. There are plenty of people who bought homes in the wrong years that took a long time to make any money from that if they ever did.

Fin, I know we've had similar discussions for many years on these forums - I'm not going to change your mind and you aren't going to change mine. What I do know is that people born into this country are still much more fortunate than the bulk of the world's population. Their situations certainly aren't going to be identical to those in some gone-by time. A person can study and work hard and make the best decisions possible to help themselves - or not. Our society is full of people at both ends of the spectrum. But in this country, a significant number of the poor are obese. That would be unfathomable in many much more underprivileged locations around the world. It is all relative.

fintail said:
Well, if one was a betting man...

You still got started at an easier time than today (especially in terms of education, workplace competition, and cost of living) even with inflation and malaise and Japan, and I think you know that, even if you won't say it. Some use distraction and say defeatist, some live in the real world and are hence realistic. Hope for the best, but don't expect it. Smoke and fire are inherently related. On a positive note, I can say I am glad I started out when I did, and not today - if anything, I'd probably have hit the ground with thrice as much loan debt.

As far as property values, you are in among that lucky group with yours too, no doubt. Those of my generation and younger mostly won't have that luck, will need more luck, or even more than luck (as it is luck, no matter how the stereotypical grizzled greybeard in Seattle thinks he's the second coming of Warren Buffett because he bought a house in 1977 with a high school diploma and a 40 hour a week job). This place wasn't a backwater 25 years ago, but speculation, a coddled FIRE industry, and idiotic demographic policy have created a monster. I know very few in my peer group who "own" and didn't get help from mommy and daddy. Maybe the smart move is for housing to not be subsidized, and to not worry about it.

fintail · November 2014

Be realistic and maybe cautiously optimistic, but not delusional or in denial about the changes that have indeed taken place. Maybe if anything, be grateful, as there's a good chance that these are the good old days. As population increases and "free trade" continues, it'll be interesting.

Many who have too much influence in the economy say housing is good. The FIRE industry almost sunk the ship not too long ago, and they still have control. Unreasonably low down payments, interest deductions, offshore money, endless subsidies, one can go on and on. Maybe it should end. A couple lucky (not to be confused with smart) generations fared much better in housing than others, and they should admit it. It's not going to be repeated. But moving away from the dream might be un-American.

Regarding discussions and not changing minds, who responded to who most recently?

They should be thankful we babble - as the markets themselves eventually run out of discussion, as they are a manipulated roulette wheel where you just hang on and ride. Regarding that, the recent run up made my modest (relative to everyone here I am sure) holdings hit a "milestone" per the automated analysis service I signed up for that sends me an email each week, so all hope isn't lost.

I also don't think a direct comparison with other regions of the planet is apples-to-apples, or is realistic. Maybe just a reason for feeling thankful. Although some have the dumb dream, this isn't an open border everything equal world yet, and everything isn't the same. Such comparisons are diminished expectations, and are as negative as anything else you dislike. If only study and hard work did it all, without other factors doing more. Regarding the spectrum, it is tilted in a manner that resembles the times of Gatsby or the Belle Epoque more now than in generations. Obesity is a red herring, unhealthy food is cheap, the poor don't receive education on healthy living, etc etc etc - not the same as a lack of food. It's another third vs first world comparison too. When the US starts saying "we're better than Somalia, so things aren't bad", all hope is lost. It's all relative to a point.

tlong said:
There's no doubt that certain aspects of the situation were easier 30 years ago than they are today. IMHO it's not reasonable to expect parity in almost any dimension between different generations. Some things get better and some things get worse. But change is certain.

Nobody can know the future and we can be optimistic and do our best, or lament the lost opportunities of the past that we don't have. Yet I'm sure there are opportunities of today that I didn't have, either.

Regarding housing - who says buying a home is a good idea, anyway? I believe that statistically over time, housing has more or less kept up with inflation, while the stock market has done far better. There are plenty of people who bought homes in the wrong years that took a long time to make any money from that if they ever did.

Fin, I know we've had similar discussions for many years on these forums - I'm not going to change your mind and you aren't going to change mine. What I do know is that people born into this country are still much more fortunate than the bulk of the world's population. Their situations certainly aren't going to be identical to those in some gone-by time. A person can study and work hard and make the best decisions possible to help themselves - or not. Our society is full of people at both ends of the spectrum. But in this country, a significant number of the poor are obese. That would be unfathomable in many much more underprivileged locations around the world. It is all relative.

cyclone4 · November 2014

houdini1 said:

tlong said:

fintail said:

It is nice to see some posts here for a change. I agree with you tiong. Each generation has its ups and downs. I remember signing for a 10% mortgage in 1980, and I was glad to get it. Some mortgage rates went to almost 20%. But it is what it is. You just deal with it.

Congrats cyclone. I have heard parts of your story, and what you and your family had to go through is just unbelievable. I will try to catch your interview if possible.

cyclone4 · November 2014

Thanks houdini!

By the way, when we built our home in Des Moines in 1981 our mortgage rate was a mind boggling 15.3%. We refinanced at 11% a year or two later. But I could not stand it and we paid the whole thing off by around 1986.

slorenzen · November 2014

cyclone4 said:
Thanks houdini!

By the way, when we built our home in Des Moines in 1981 our mortgage rate was a mind boggling 15.3%. We refinanced at 11% a year or two later. But I could not stand it and we paid the whole thing off by around 1986.

My first home(in California, circa 1986) was 11.5%, negative amortization unless I paid extra.

I re-financed a couple years later for 7.5% which was a screaming deal, relatively.

Moved to Oregon in 1993, paid this place off about 6 years ago.

Feels good, doesn't it?

gagrice · November 2014

It is nice to see some posts here for a change. I agree with you tiong. Each generation has its ups and downs. I remember signing for a 10% mortgage in 1980, and I was glad to get it. Some mortgage rates went to almost 20%. But it is what it is. You just deal with it.

Congrats cyclone. I have heard parts of your story, and what you and your family had to go through is just unbelievable. I will try to catch your interview if possible.

I worked 16 years for the phone company before I could afford to buy a home. That was 1977. I bought a nice farm and within 3 years the economy was so bad for farmers, I had to head back to Alaska to my old job. During the 3 years from 77-80 we also built 3 homes and bought two and remodeled. That was a near disaster as well because of the interest rates. 21% for contractors interim financing. And the local banks were real tough to deal with on home buying, 15% the going rate. We had to find buyers with 50% cash to sell those homes we built. As tough as financing can be right today, it is far better than the late 1970s and early 80s. I think someone mentioned one of the main reasons housing prices are so bad in certain areas is the local governments are not allowing expansion. I know that is a big issue in San Diego. Near impossible to find a building lot and get all the permits before you have $400k plus cash into the project. The only building going on around here are Federally financed apartments for Section8 welfare. 20 years they will all be slums.

slorenzen · November 2014

Even in places where there IS buildable land, the confiscatory fees slapped on contractors is crazy!

A friend in my town is a contractor, told me that to build an 1800 sq. ft. 3/2 around here is approx. 30K in permits, and can take 6-12 months to get approved.

Not very conducive to growing the economy...

robr2 · November 2014

slorenzen said:
Even in places where there IS buildable land, the confiscatory fees slapped on contractors is crazy!

A friend in my town is a contractor, told me that to build an 1800 sq. ft. 3/2 around here is approx. 30K in permits, and can take 6-12 months to get approved.

Not very conducive to growing the economy...

Where are you located?

I'm in a "high cost" area and permits are typically 1% of the project estimate for the GC, the plumber and the electrician. For commercial projects of $3 million +, the town adds a plan review charge of .12% on top of the permit fee.

slorenzen · November 2014

robr2 said:

slorenzen said:
Even in places where there IS buildable land, the confiscatory fees slapped on contractors is crazy!

A friend in my town is a contractor, told me that to build an 1800 sq. ft. 3/2 around here is approx. 30K in permits, and can take 6-12 months to get approved.

Not very conducive to growing the economy...

Where are you located?

I'm in a "high cost" area and permits are typically 1% of the project estimate for the GC, the plumber and the electrician. For commercial projects of $3 million +, the town adds a plan review charge of .12% on top of the permit fee.

I'm in a small town south of Eugene, Oregon(Cottage Grove).

My friend was talking about city fees, sewer hookups, etc.

Not sure what the county fees would be(Lane county), but the city fees sounded ridiculous.

Stever, what's the story on the emotorcons?

robr2 · November 2014

Got it. You said permits so that's what I compared to.

Connecting to water and utilities are a whole different thing. I live in a town with very little open land and any new residential construction is usually tear downs so the water, sewer, gas and electric are all there. If a new house is built, then they do have to pay street opening fees, sewer connection fees, et al. The gas and electric companies also charge for new service.

tlong · November 2014

gagrice said:

It is nice to see some posts here for a change. I agree with you tiong. Each generation has its ups and downs. I remember signing for a 10% mortgage in 1980, and I was glad to get it. Some mortgage rates went to almost 20%. But it is what it is. You just deal with it.

Hi Gary, thanks for the comments.

I guess we must have practically sat on our Grecian couches and ate grapes to get where we are today! So many "know" how much easier we had it... even those who weren't there to experience it. I appreciate all of your decades of hard work and I hope my family and friends appreciate mine, too. CEOs make be raking in the millions but I'm certainly not one of those.

The market - where does it go? I went through my play the market phase in the 90's; today I just hold a variety of mostly index mutual funds and rebalance as necessary to maintain asset allocation. It's going to be what it's going to be and few can guess with any reliability where things will go.

I certainly hope my kids aren't the types who spend wildly on high-end cars and go on trips all over the place while not planning for their future. Thankfully they both seem to be willing to save and be frugal as necessary. In general they certainly don't have to work as hard as I did back then.

fintail · November 2014

In 1981, my family lived in a house that cost maybe 3 years salary (I don't know the rate, I was 4

) - about the same amount of salary as a house bought by my grandparents 20 years earlier. Now either house would cost maybe 6-7 years salary.

cyclone4 said:
Thanks houdini!

By the way, when we built our home in Des Moines in 1981 our mortgage rate was a mind boggling 15.3%. We refinanced at 11% a year or two later. But I could not stand it and we paid the whole thing off by around 1986.

fintail · November 2014

Yeah, I am sure you could ascend if you were a fresh 23 year old newbie today just the same as 35 years ago, and that those today have it no worse. My mistake. I can readily admit I am grateful I was able to be at certain place at a certain point in time, not to mention anything I have today, but maybe that's just me. I don't think the young ones have better now.

It's funny that one can enjoy life a little and save at the same time, if they don't make other life choices. Think about it. Nice passive aggressive line there, funny. You'd fit in very well in this area.

Did those kids get a free ride from mommy and daddy, then for grad might get a car and eventual down on a house, etc, all while building it themselves? Good for them.

Google the "old economy Steve" meme, it fits some people here

tlong said:

I guess we must have practically sat on our Grecian couches and ate grapes to get where we are today!

I certainly hope my kids aren't the types who spend wildly on high-end cars and go on trips all over the place while not planning for their future. Thankfully they both seem to be willing to save and be frugal as necessary. In general they certainly don't have to work as hard as I did back then.

houdini1 · November 2014

fintail said:
Yeah, I am sure you could ascend if you were a fresh 23 year old newbie today just the same as 35 years ago, and that those today have it no worse. My mistake. I can readily admit I am grateful I was able to be at certain place at a certain point in time, not to mention anything I have today, but maybe that's just me. I don't think the young ones have better now.

It's funny that one can enjoy life a little and save at the same time, if they don't make other life choices. Think about it. Nice passive aggressive line there, funny. You'd fit in very well in this area.

Did those kids get a free ride from mommy and daddy, then for grad might get a car and eventual down on a house, etc, all while building it themselves? Good for them.

Google the "old economy Steve" meme, it fits some people here

tlong said:

I guess we must have practically sat on our Grecian couches and ate grapes to get where we are today!

I certainly hope my kids aren't the types who spend wildly on high-end cars and go on trips all over the place while not planning for their future. Thankfully they both seem to be willing to save and be frugal as necessary. In general they certainly don't have to work as hard as I did back then.

Yes, fin, we all know how tough things are on you. By the way, how is that new Mercedes doing? I think I heard you mention you were about to trade it in on a another new one. Hang in there, things will get better.

fintail · November 2014

Where did I say things are tough on me? I'm thankful I've had the opportunities afforded me. The youngins in general have it tougher today than I did when completing school a mere 15 or so years ago.

My modern car isn't the fanciest nor a huge expense, and my other car I bought when I was 18 (and is still in "ran when parked" status, due to a hiccup). I'm not a high roller

houdini1 said:
<
Yes, fin, we all know how tough things are on you. By the way, how is that new Mercedes doing? I think I heard you mention you were about to trade it in on a another new one. Hang in there, things will get better.

gagrice · November 2014

fintail said:
Where did I say things are tough on me? I'm thankful I've had the opportunities afforded me. The youngins in general have it tougher today than I did when completing school a mere 15 or so years ago.

My modern car isn't the fanciest nor a huge expense, and my other car I bought when I was 18 (and is still in "ran when parked" status, due to a hiccup). I'm not a high roller

Everyone knows you are a high roller if you drive a Mercedes.

Then some people would rather wear out 3 CamCords over 20 years than spend the money on one solid luxury car. I am with you, I have gone cheap and expensive and find spending a little more pays off in so many ways.

houdini1 · November 2014

fintail said:
Where did I say things are tough on me? I'm thankful I've had the opportunities afforded me. The youngins in general have it tougher today than I did when completing school a mere 15 or so years ago.

My modern car isn't the fanciest nor a huge expense, and my other car I bought when I was 18 (and is still in "ran when parked" status, due to a hiccup). I'm not a high roller

houdini1 said:
<
Yes, fin, we all know how tough things are on you. By the way, how is that new Mercedes doing? I think I heard you mention you were about to trade it in on a another new one. Hang in there, things will get better.

I guess I have more faith in our 20 somethings being able to thrive and prosper in the environment they are in. It has never been easy at that age to get started and established but a little smarts and hard work will get it done. If they are deserving and appreciative there is no reason that their parents can't help out a little if necessary.

houdini1 · November 2014

Fin, our next door neighbors' son, who is 19 and a sophomore at the Univ. of Neb. just got a job offer from Ameritas (some type of programming). Starts at $40,000. a year, plus they will pay for the rest of his college expenses, etc. He starts Dec. 15th. in Lincoln, Neb. He is currently shopping for a new car.

If he plays his cards right, he could be set for life. Yep, these kids have it tough !!

robr2 · November 2014

Congrats to that kid but for many it's not that easy. It all depends on what your major is. Programmers, engineers, et al will have a better chance than English, communications, psychology majors.

Tell your neighbor's kid to forget the new car and put some money away. It sounds like he is taking on an entry level programming job and will be taking advantage of a tuition reimbursement plan. If he isn't committed, he won't finish school because he will be too busy spending what he thinks is big money.

I have a friend whose daughter worked as a programmer at large dot com based in Seattle during her summers. Her pay was close to six figures a year and they paid her living expenses. When she graduated with her BS, they offered her mid six figures and she turned it down to pursue her PhD. She will probably be able to command over $200K to start at any number of tech or consulting firms when she finishes.

fintail · November 2014

Cool for him. He's an anomaly, and likely has some natural ability that many don't have - hence high pay based on supply and demand (rather than tenure like execs or an organized cabal like the legal arena). Let's look at averages or norms. I have a good old friend who got a ComSci degree - had a great time at the end of the 90s, then not so hot, now is doing pretty well - but the H1B supporters are doing what they can to keep a lid on that segment, too.

Didn't you just buy your wife some enormous 100K Lexus SUV that should require a special license endorsement? I'm the high roller? :P

houdini1 said:
Fin, our next door neighbors' son, who is 19 and a sophomore at the Univ. of Neb. just got a job offer from Ameritas (some type of programming). Starts at $40,000. a year, plus they will pay for the rest of his college expenses, etc. He starts Dec. 15th. in Lincoln, Neb. He is currently shopping for a new car.

If he plays his cards right, he could be set for life. Yep, these kids have it tough !!

fintail · November 2014

Thrive and prosper where tuition and housing and healthcare and the rest are massively more expensive compared to the wages of college age workers than in the past. Yes, some will, and all will survive, but some of these trends won't last forever - they already haven't.

Nothing wrong with receiving help - we've all had some in one form or another. But many who really luck out act like they are the second coming of Horatio Alger who built Rome in a day with a hand tied behind their back. Something something build that

houdini1 said:

I guess I have more faith in our 20 somethings being able to thrive and prosper in the environment they are in. It has never been easy at that age to get started and established but a little smarts and hard work will get it done. If they are deserving and appreciative there is no reason that their parents can't help out a little if necessary.

fintail · November 2014

Believe me, I know how that is. And it wasn't much different when I bought the fintail for the price of an ordinary semi-beater. People say and think funny things.

Some people see cars as an appliance, and that's fine - they can blow money at the casino or on electronics or kids. Nothing wrong with a little fun now and then, if you run in the black. Hearses don't have luggage racks

gagrice said:

Everyone knows you are a high roller if you drive a Mercedes.
Then some people would rather wear out 3 CamCords over 20 years than spend the money on one solid luxury car. I am with you, I have gone cheap and expensive and find spending a little more pays off in so many ways.

houdini1 · November 2014

Certainly nothing wrong with being a high roller. Live and let live is my motto. Yes, my wife is currently on her 3rd LX. She only drives about 5,000 miles per year. Compared to depreciation loss, it really wouldn't matter much if gas was free or cost $10.00 per gal.

The kid next door is your typical nerd type. I hope he will be able to develop the corporate survival skills that will enable him to rise through the ranks, etc. His dad has done very well, so the bloodlines are there.

imidazol97 · November 2014

fintail said:
Hearses don't have luggage racks

LOL. But it sure would be nice to die with enough money to afford a nice hearse instead
of a pauper's box.

fintail · November 2014

And we only get one go around, so as long as you can balance the books, might as well live a little

I won't begrudge her choice, as I am sure she enjoys it.

With any luck, the kid will have a brilliant idea, develop it, sell it, and not have to deal with the corporate grind. That grind can be overrated.

houdini1 said:
Certainly nothing wrong with being a high roller. Live and let live is my motto.

fintail · November 2014

I'd be happy with having my ashes scattered in a cool location. As Rodney Dangerfield's character said in "Caddyshack": "I tell ya, country clubs and cemeteries are the biggest wastes of prime real estate".

imidazol97 said:

fintail said:
Hearses don't have luggage racks
LOL. But it sure would be nice to die with enough money to afford a nice hearse instead
of a pauper's box.

houdini1 · November 2014

fintail said:
And we only get one go around, so as long as you can balance the books, might as well live a little I won't begrudge her choice, as I am sure she enjoys it.

With any luck, the kid will have a brilliant idea, develop it, sell it, and not have to deal with the corporate grind. That grind can be overrated.

houdini1 said:
Certainly nothing wrong with being a high roller. Live and let live is my motto.

The corporate grind turned into a nightmare for people approaching 50 about 15/20 years or so ago. AFAIK it hasn't changed. I will admit that any success I have had can mostly be attributed to very good luck and timing. I started my own little operation and left the corp grind behind before I could get the bums rush.

fintail · November 2014

It hasn't changed for any age. I work in it now. It's not all bad, I work with some good people and I don't distrust everyone who has somehow ascended to the top, but at the same, there are issues. I'm not exactly making 500K, but I can say I've had a dose of luck and timing too, for which I am thankful.

Just as I am thankful that I didn't lose it all in 08, and that the markets don't seem to be dying off anytime soon.

houdini1 said:

The corporate grind turned into a nightmare for people approaching 50 about 15/20 years or so ago. AFAIK it hasn't changed. I will admit that any success I have had can mostly be attributed to very good luck and timing. I started my own little operation and left the corp grind behind before I could get the bums rush.

houdini1 · December 2014

TOUGH WEEK !!

fintail · December 2014

My losses have been limited to 4 figures, but I saved a few bucks on gas, so it's all worth it, right?

tlong · December 2014

Hang on, it will come back. And if it doesn't, well, life is full of risks...

circlew · December 2014

Came back fast!

circlew · December 2014

Good advice.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/12/27/timeless-advice-from-the-sage-of-wall-street/20870987/

slorenzen · January 2015

THAT was ugly.

Which way will it go from here?

gagrice · January 2015

slorenzen said:
THAT was ugly.

Which way will it go from here?

I have given up guessing. I took most of my money out of stocks in 2012, and we all know what a mistake that was. I did put a lot into real estate projects that may yet give me a decent return. I need to dig out the old dart board.

circlew · January 2015

Still holding mostly stocks @ Vanguard.

gagrice · January 2015

AAPL stock holders have to be pretty happy about now.

First-quarter revenues at the company, now valued at $650bn by investors, grew 30 per cent year-on-year to $74.6bn. Earnings increased by 48 per cent to $3.06, well ahead of analysts’ estimates. “For a company of our size that is not a small feat,” said Luca Maestri, chief financial officer.

Apple’s cash position at the end of the quarter stood at $142bn, net of debt. That is almost $23bn up on three months earlier, with 89 per cent of its cash now held outside the US.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b3bb354a-a666-11e4-89e5-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Q5Jg9rfC

tlong · February 2015

gagrice said:
AAPL stock holders have to be pretty happy about now.

First-quarter revenues at the company, now valued at $650bn by investors, grew 30 per cent year-on-year to $74.6bn. Earnings increased by 48 per cent to $3.06, well ahead of analysts’ estimates. “For a company of our size that is not a small feat,” said Luca Maestri, chief financial officer.

Apple’s cash position at the end of the quarter stood at $142bn, net of debt. That is almost $23bn up on three months earlier, with 89 per cent of its cash now held outside the US.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b3bb354a-a666-11e4-89e5-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Q5Jg9rfC

I still have shares that I bought in 2005; they are up around 12x. I sold quite a bit of them a few years ago and now wish I had kept it all. Oh well, hindsight is 20/20. Going to hang onto the existing shares indefinitely since the current dividend is over 2%, which is over 20% of my original investment, per year, returned to me!

slorenzen · April 2015

Where'd everybody go?

Is there any concern regarding 85Billion being printed every month, diluting the buying power of the dollar?

Is this why the market is so high?

tlong · April 2015

We tend to think things are still only mediocre when they are actually going really well. There hasn't been much drama in the stock market in a long time - after a run up of like 7 years.

I figure that major trouble is probably approaching.

cdnpinhead · April 2015

Balance that portfolio. Let the winners pay the losers. I've never been very successful at predicting.

tlong · April 2015

cdnpinhead said:
Balance that portfolio. Let the winners pay the losers. I've never been very successful at predicting.

Oh that's exactly what I am doing. I have my asset allocation and I'm not changing anything. I don't time the market. Just suspecting that the good times won't last forever....

fintail · April 2015

Dollar is diluted, but is faring very well against most foreign currencies. For as dopey as things are here, they are worse in most other places. For many, purchasing power dilution is the real issue.

Of course there will be a downturn sometime, markets are cyclical, we all know that. Crash and rebuild, crash and rebuild. Don't look for timing or logic, just let it ride and enjoy real life.

ljflx · April 2015

I've been on a wild ride on Baidu but am staying with it as I think it goes top $250. Still have Apple and it's still so badly undervalued. Took a shot at ICPT too and that's been a trip. I love celgene. One nice stock I love is BX. Pays and 8% dividend and its up 3-4% since I bought it. I finally got into FB but not until it was at 77. Do you guys think GOOG buys TWTR.

circlew · April 2015

Here is some info....
http://moneymorning.com/2015/04/08/is-google-buying-twitter-twtr/

ljflx · April 2015

Thanks, Circle. What are you thinking on earnings reports. I'm expecting them to be better than forecasts and I expect Apple to blow the doors off estimates and give a positive outlook going forward. Cook is learning quickly now how to deal with Wall Street. I also expect oil to make a nose dive to $40 or so.

ljflx · April 2015

BTW - I bought UAL a long time ago but I think Spirit may be a better airline to own. I did trade back into TWTR this week because I do think they will get taken over. But I've had bad luck with that stock in the past. GOOG is a natural for them but I can see an Alibaba or Baidu making strategic deals with them too. GOOG needs something to feel protected from FB. Even now they have done nothing well except search and that's getting vulnerable.

circlew · April 2015

I see earnings beating estimates...banks reporting this morning, J&J just beat but forecasts lower on $strength.

I see market going marginally higher for Q2. I see GOOG making a big acquisition soon.

tlong · April 2015

I see my mutual funds paying dividends.

cyclone4 · April 2015

ljflx said:
Thanks, Circle. What are you thinking on earnings reports. I'm expecting them to be better than forecasts and I expect Apple to blow the doors off estimates and give a positive outlook going forward. Cook is learning quickly now how to deal with Wall Street. I also expect oil to make a nose dive to $40 or so.

I have not posted here for a long time so here I am. Do you remember as recently as a couple years ago when there was clamor to get rid of Tim Cook? Man, how times have changed. Personally, I thought Cook has always been cool, calm, and collected. He is very intelligent and the right man for CEO of Apple.

As far as the earnings report is concerned, I strongly believe it will be another blowout report. China, China, and more China plus the rest of the world. Analysts have been totally underestimating China's impact on Apple products. Analysts are also now underestimating the importance of the Apple Watch. It will be much more significant to Apple's bottom line than these idiots are stating. Are any of you guys buying the Apple Watch? I am, but going for the sport model with the larger screen. I think this product will be neat to have along with the iPhone. As always, there are a few bugs to be worked out on this first iteration. The second one should truly be awesome. My thinking is that if I don't spend a lot of money on this first one, I will also purchase the next iteration.

What about Apple Pay? Do you folks that own the iPhone 6 use it? I use it all the time wherever it is allowable. It is so easy and secure. This will catch on like wild fire in the next couple years.

As far as the overall market is concerned, I remain quite bullish over the next year at least. Don't listen to these doom and gloom jerks that have been predicting doom and gloom continuously since the last major market collapse in 2008/09.

The Stock Market and Investing

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