Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

qbrozen · November 2016

Ok, let's see here... I need some help crunching things and making sense of it all. Here are a few options...

Purchase new 2017 for $37k. Probably do about $7k down and $600/mo for 60 mos.

Lease new 2017 for what appears to be possibly maybe $2k down and $400/mo for 39 mos with ~$23,500 residual. By the end, I will have paid $17,600 and walk away with nothing. (Or buy it out if I love it, but who am I kidding?)

In the new purchase, at month 39, I will have paid $30,400 towards the car ($12,800 more than the lease), still owe $12,250, which leaves about $11k positive equity IF we assume the residual of the lease is going to be pretty accurate. So it would appear the lease is cheaper.(?)

Back over to the used side, let's look at the 2013 with 35k miles. Figuring a purchase price of $24,500, I'd probably do $5500 down and $475/48mos. In the same 39mos, I'd have a vehicle with 95k miles, have paid $24,025 ($6400 more than the lease), owe $4200, and have maybe $4k equity. Somehow, the lease looks to be cheaper yet again.

On the other extreme, if I look at the 78k mile 2010 for $12,900, I could say $4k down and $450/24mos. At the end of 24mos, I'd be at 114k miles, have paid $14,800, and have a $5k car? Maybe? Certainly the cheapest option, barring any major repairs, of course. Of course, I'm driving an "old beater" most of the time. haha.

There are many in-betweeners, obviously, such as a 2011 with 57k miles for $18k. Might be a decent compromise. I have to admit the 325hp version starting in '13 has appeal, though.

breld · November 2016

Well, just to simplify it a bit, the cost really just comes down to your expected depreciation, right? Which, of course, is difficult to estimate with certainty. The lease new vs. buy new is theoretically the same, other than implied interest rate and fees unique to the lease. Stated residual at the end of the lease is nice, and makes it so your actual cash flow is only the depreciation (at least an estimate of it) instead of "floating" the entire cost.

Personally, if you're gonna go new, I don't think there's much difference between leasing vs buying from a strict economic perspective. The biggest drawback I would say is what seems to be less flexibility in trading a leased car in (at least in my experience) - are you really gonna be happy with the car for 39 months?

As you know very well, buy used and buy well. And you certainly are armed with pricing information to be successful at that. Let's say realistically, you keep the car for 2 years - which option will have the least depreciation? The brand new 2017 or a 2-3 year old model?

tifighter · November 2016

The only other factor here is exclusive to this car: the back seat. If you don't need to use it, used seems like a no-brainer. But if you do, then the difference for the newest ones is dramatic. And finding a 16 used will be nearly impossible, and will likely be priced way too high anyhow. Just some additional food for thought.

I think the newer ones with the longer wheelbase will hold their value a bit better for this reason alone. Time will tell.

stever · November 2016

Michaell said:

stever said:
Don't get ahead of me - we made a low counteroffer and they let us take it home for the day.

It's missing adaptive cruise, the parallel parking thing and ventilated seats. Otherwise it has everything, including the heated wheel and changing the radio by yelling at it. The roof rack brought back memories (including wind noise, lol). Probably won't keep that.
I knew it was too good to be true.

How important are those features to you?

It hasn't been a great couple of weeks driving @Micheall. First it was not seeing a pedestrian on the shoulder cruising just after 7 pm here. Missed him but I would have moved over a good bit had I spotted him. So I went to an optician and I just picked up my new glasses, including some clear lenses for night driving.

And then we got hit by the red light runner last week. So I want all the nannies.

@suydam, I bet the racks could be moved fore or aft and that would take care of the noise.

@sandman_6472 , my wife's new iPad Pro arrived this afternoon. :-)

@tifighter >>You seem to keep your cars a long time, so get the loaded one. Adaptive cruise is great

Yep, I don't sweat the depreciation either. This one is missing the adaptive cruise and I'd like it.

@jpp5862, yep, the $35k one. They ignored the $2,000 ADM from the get-got. MSRP is $33,425. And yeah, the blue is nice.

28firefighter · November 2016

What are general thoughts on the Charger R/T these days? Doesn't @rayainsw have one?

I realize it is a complete and utter 180 from the GTI, but I do have an affinity for them. I suppose I should really drive one before saying that with any certainty.

EDIT: My feeling is that if I am going to own a car that gets 14 MPG, I might as well at least have a car with the engine to support it!

stever · November 2016

graphicguy said:

stever said:
Good idea. Wonder if we could farm that out to some IT person in India....

I've sort of been doing that with TMV and then assuming TMV is an average, trying to guess how much more room there is to go with a higher percentage off.
Honda Accords should be $500 over invoice....all day, every day with no crazy doc fees (at least not around me). Civics may take a little more to sweeten the pot given the delta between invoice and MSRP is pretty skinny.

We're seeing some deals around $2,000 below invoice. Depends on the area, but my target suggestion in that discussion is usually $500 to $1,500 below invoice.

And yeah, you're right about the Civics, they are hot.

Michaell · November 2016

@stever - makes sense. For as long as you keep your cars, you should get exactly what you want. The Encore is available with those options, right?

@28firefighter - I had an R/T as a rental a while back. The power is intoxicating, for sure. Will it work in crowded Seattle?

28firefighter · November 2016

Michaell said:

@28firefighter - I had an R/T as a rental a while back. The power is intoxicating, for sure. Will it work in crowded Seattle?

Beats me! Haven't driven one yet. About 10" (!) longer than my old VW CC. Might be a little tight...

qbrozen · November 2016

tifighter said:

The only other factor here is exclusive to this car: the back seat. If you don't need to use it, used seems like a no-brainer. But if you do, then the difference for the newest ones is dramatic. And finding a 16 used will be nearly impossible, and will likely be priced way too high anyhow. Just some additional food for thought. I think the newer ones with the longer wheelbase will hold their value a bit better for this reason alone. Time will tell.

I don't need the back enough to care all that much.

BUT, I did just find a good deal on a 2016:
http://www.nyautogiant.com/index_mobile.php?function=vehicle&id=118423

kind of concerning it is priced only about $1500 over AUCTION value of a 2015. I don't have 2016 auction numbers.

qbrozen · November 2016

On the downside of all this talk of newer vehicles, it would not allow me to add a classic to the fleet, as I keep thinking I want. Need to stick with the cheap options to make that happen.

stickguy · November 2016

busy here tonight. Let's see what I remember:

QB: Hard to see the lease working for you. Keeping something 39 months? Ouch. I actually like the cheap option. How about pairing it with something else? Heck, for the price differential on the payment, you could lease something cheaper to absorb miles. Actually, diving a ton of miles does complicate things.

at least with the EX, the drivetrain is quite durable, so unlike some other options, running it up over 100K should not be a worry.

the 2016 looks nice. Not that much of a savings, since that looks like about 39K sticker new, so mid 30s to roll? They also had some issues with the ad (doesn't list the Navi, plus say interior is graphite instead of wheat as in the pictures).

stickguy · November 2016

Steve, nice color and wheels on the Encore. Should be fun. I also like having more info if possible. Tonight, was out driving around in the rain, in the RDX, and in those conditions, not that easy to see exactly where cars on the side are hiding (and how close). Still need to look, but the BLIS light is a real nice extra layer of protection to have.

stickguy · November 2016

must be ipad season. I got one to give to my wife for Xmas (a wifi only Air 2). I have a few year old one and use it all the time. She got a cheap tablet (Verizon freebie) a few years ago, but it is IMO junk. neither of us can really figure out how to make it work, plus seems to be loaded with crap programs. Hope she likes it! Or I should take it away, and give her the old one...

iluvmysephia1 · November 2016

stever, the 2017 Buick Encore is nice. What is your offer - $32,995? I like that blue paint job and the slightly-different from 2016 headlight design. Are you going to just stick with this one and find a happy medium with the dealer?

Michaell · November 2016

stickguy said:
must be ipad season. I got one to give to my wife for Xmas (a wifi only Air 2). I have a few year old one and use it all the time. She got a cheap tablet (Verizon freebie) a few years ago, but it is IMO junk. neither of us can really figure out how to make it work, plus seems to be loaded with crap programs. Hope she likes it! Or I should take it away, and give her the old one...

I got an iPad a few years ago as a Father's Day gift. Great to surf, but when I'm in serious moderator mode, I much prefer my laptop with a traditional keyboard.

suydam · November 2016

I use mine for almost everything. Can't remember the last time I used the laptop. With wifi printing there's very little reason.

nyccarguy · November 2016

@qbrozen - my vote goes for lease new. Minimal cash outlay (acquisition fee, DMV fee, doc fee, rebate taxes), your depreciation costs are fixed, and a low monthly payment. The car is new and covered under warranty for 50K miles. Maintenance wise you'll be on the hook for a couple of oil changes, a set of brakes, & a set of tires.

There is always the "I'm paying $17K" argument against leasing, but it does keep you in the same car for 39 months (unless you get someone to take over your lease). Again, you are going to be spending the money on a car anyway.

This is a dangerous conversation for me to be having with you.

Michaell · November 2016

nyccarguy said:
@qbrozen - my vote goes for lease new. Minimal cash outlay (acquisition fee, DMV fee, doc fee, rebate taxes), your depreciation costs are fixed, and a low monthly payment. The car is new and covered under warranty for 50K miles. Maintenance wise you'll be on the hook for a couple of oil changes, a set of brakes, & a set of tires.

There is always the "I'm paying $17K" argument against leasing, but it does keep you in the same car for 39 months (unless you get someone to take over your lease). Again, you are going to be spending the money on a car anyway.

This is a dangerous conversation for me to be having with you.

I've suggested to @qbrozen that the dealer and acquisition fee be rolled into the cap cost, and only pay the first payment and DMV costs up front.

qbrozen · November 2016

Looking at some classics to sway me the other way. Plenty of nice choices for $15k and under. So couple that with a $15k EX and maybe hold my interest a little longer.

qbrozen · November 2016

Hey, stick, you can forget about that 78k miles Lodi car. Found out through a truecar price request that they want $595 doc fee and $995 prep fee. So the real price is $14335. No way I'd pay that and start with that many miles.

stever · November 2016

iluvmysephia1 said:
stever, the 2017 Buick Encore is nice. What is your offer - $32,995? I like that blue paint job and the slightly-different from 2016 headlight design. Are you going to just stick with this one and find a happy medium with the dealer?

Nah, we came up to $30k plus TTL. Heading out of town for the day tomorrow but maybe something will happen at 5 pm. Probably not though.

All the other models are still on the table.

My wife uses her iPad for everything and was going to switch to a Samsung tablet, but the phone fires made her look harder at the newer iPads. She's not wild about Apple's captive apps stuff, but then she stumbled onto the Pencil and since she's into drawing and pastels, she went that route. It's the first one she's gotten that wasn't a refurb.

So I get her iPad 3 now. The pinball game on the iPad 1 works well though and the iPad 1 is so old, they aren't able to bombard me with ads like they do on the 3. So I may just continue to use it for gaming and just use the 3 for hotspotting (no cell function in the Pro she got).

For my serious mod mode, I prefer my desktop with dual monitors over the laptop, but the laptop is awfully nice when it's hammock weather.

Oh, the local dealer had a couple of the new Chinese made Buicks in stock out on the lot but I was too lazy to ask to see them.

ab348 · November 2016

My iPad is an iPad2 I believe. I got it through work and they didn't want it back when I retired.It's OK for surfing and reading but for anything that requires text entry it is painful. I wish there were arrow keys on the keyboard. I find trying to touch the screen to place the cursor somewhere is very inconsistent.

corvette · November 2016

I prefer a real keyboard, but am typing this on my iPhone. Have an ipad mini 2 which replaced a defective ipad mini. Bought one of the $33.33 Amazon Fires for occasional use at work. It's not as nice as the iPad but does everything I need it to do.

stickguy · November 2016

I do have a wireless keyboard for my ipad. I never actually use it though. I can type OK on it, but not huge amounts (slow with 1 finger!), and do miss a mouse for some things. So, I use the laptop for heavy duty typing stuff. But the ipad is what I take travelling to have something to surf with. I can't do that on my phone, just too small.

I do use the phone as the mobile hotspot if needed to run the pad through (wifi only). That works really well.

stickguy · November 2016

Q, get the Mustang, but that does nothing for sharing your miles around. I assume you will keep the Volvo, so that can help take the load off. Maybe a cheaper model lease on a CUV? Or just go with the older unit for cheaper money, and mile the heck out of it. Do you really have to get a hot rod like an EX that sucks gas for commuting? The Mustang would fulfill your fun requirements.

graphicguy · November 2016

stever said:

graphicguy said:

stever said:
Good idea. Wonder if we could farm that out to some IT person in India....

I've sort of been doing that with TMV and then assuming TMV is an average, trying to guess how much more room there is to go with a higher percentage off.
Honda Accords should be $500 over invoice....all day, every day with no crazy doc fees (at least not around me). Civics may take a little more to sweeten the pot given the delta between invoice and MSRP is pretty skinny.
We're seeing some deals around $2,000 below invoice. Depends on the area, but my target suggestion in that discussion is usually $500 to $1,500 below invoice.

And yeah, you're right about the Civics, they are hot.

Makes sense....I don't figure in DOC fees and other fluff in my offers. I do take whatever incentives off, but that's a regional thing so I never include those here.

Read a review on the new CR-V recently (C&D?). Claim was it was the best compact (not so compact anymore) SU V on the market.

I would imagine that's going to be tough to do a skinny deal on for a little while.

graphicguy · November 2016

Michaell said:

stickguy said:
must be ipad season. I got one to give to my wife for Xmas (a wifi only Air 2). I have a few year old one and use it all the time. She got a cheap tablet (Verizon freebie) a few years ago, but it is IMO junk. neither of us can really figure out how to make it work, plus seems to be loaded with crap programs. Hope she likes it! Or I should take it away, and give her the old one...
I got an iPad a few years ago as a Father's Day gift. Great to surf, but when I'm in serious moderator mode, I much prefer my laptop with a traditional keyboard.

HIGHLY RECOMMEND one of these (typing on one now)......

https://www.amazon.com/Logitech-Backlit-Keyboard-Connector-12-9-Inch/dp/B01798WTD6/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&linkCode=sl1&tag=dt-incontent-btn-20&linkId=650d9dd9d36702652014e9c17a4f1620&ascsubtag=mobile:841260:8960708&th=1

stickguy · November 2016

GG, that one I like. Pricey for my needs though. But, much more convenient. I assume they have them for older/smaller models too.

stickguy · November 2016

the new CRV does look real nice. Will be taking a serious look when they come out, but that functionally would be an RDX replacement to fulfill the family wagon role. I assume that by next fall, Acura will release a new RDX on the same platform, since the current one is based on the outgoing CRV, and after playing with a 2017 (my SIL just got one) last week, it is seriously long in the tooth at this point (at least tech wise).

but, that is a super competitive segment, so deals will still be there to be had.

the Accord, I will look at those for me. Nice package, and will expect a major discount off MSRP. Actually, they must be getting close to a new model of that also.

suydam · November 2016

I had a Honda Accord and loved it. However, now that I've experienced the Blind Spot Warning and rear cross traffic alert system of my Encore, I find it superior to the Honda system. So I've ruled out Honda for the time being. Too bad because I've always been partial to Honda.

stickguy · November 2016

yes, BLIS is better than lanewatch. At some point, I expect Honda will make the switch, though they can be stubborn. At least on Acura, some of the models (such as the ILX premium trim) come with BLIS.

by the time I am actually shopping, there will be 2018s being sold (and any 17s will be serious leftovers), so who knows what I might find!

xwesx · November 2016

qbrozen said:
Ok, let's see here... I need some help crunching things and making sense of it all. Here are a few options...

That all seems fairly rational, except for the assumption that a 39-month lease is a good option for you! You'll be itching to get out of it after 24 months, tops. And, this is YOU we're talking about, so you will find a way to move it!

qbrozen · November 2016

xwesx said:

qbrozen said:
Ok, let's see here... I need some help crunching things and making sense of it all. Here are a few options...

That all seems fairly rational, except for the assumption that a 39-month lease is a good option for you! You'll be itching to get out of it after 24 months, tops. And, this is YOU we're talking about, so you will find a way to move it!

I know, I know. Damned reality.

In any case, I just got off the phone with a dealer in Old Bridge with a 15k-mile 2010 EX35. Not sure if I posted that one before or not. Anyway, total price with dealer fees is south of $18k. Plus tax and DMV, of course. UCM on the phone claims it does have Nav, so that makes it a very very tempting option, even with black interior. A bit more than I was targeting, but with only 15k miles makes it a smart choice since I'll mile the hell out of it. I think if an offer letter comes from VW before Saturday, I'll be visiting that dealer.

If I put a minimal amount of money down, that would allow me to take the bulk of my VW proceeds and apply towards a classic car.

And, yes, stick, I need a hot rod daily commuter. How dare you ask. Ha. Seriously, though, it is nice that the EX is quick, but even nicer that I found it very comfortable and we know it to be very reliable. The only other SUV I drove that I found fit my comfort needs was the XC60, and that is more expensive and less reliable. Oh, I did like the Terrain, too, but that isn't any cheaper when you get to the 3.6 model. The EX is the smartest choice for me, I believe.

stickguy · November 2016

as long as you don't care about MPG for all the miles you roll up (or leg room for the kiddies), it is a good option. I always liked them, when I sat in them at the car show. Next year something like this could be a good option for me, if my usage doesn't change. I would just go opposite you (newer with high miles for the year, so less $, since I don't put many on).

At this point though, after talking more with the wife (largely about the future of the RDX), I am thinking I will be getting something used and not that expensive to tide us over, with the RDX getting all the travel duty again. I mentioned upgrading it to get modern tech, but she likes it. Made a good point. She doesn't care which car has the goodies and goes on all the trips, as long as we have one for that duty.

sda · November 2016

From what I've read the 2018 Accord will be all new, probably using a turbo engine and shedding the V6. I would think you could get some great deals on the '17s when the 18's come out...but do you want the tried and true '17 or go with the new and assumingly improved '18?

stickguy · November 2016

I always think logically, which is get the one with all the bugs worked out. Then get all excited by the new shiny toys, and buy that instead.

actually, only ever got burned on that once (the 1995 jellybean Voyager). Others that I got when they first came out (sometimes one of the very first sold in the region) that were fine include the 2005 Odyssey, 2005 Scion tC (that literally was their first one sold at the dealer), our RDX, my Sonata.

unless there was something that I didn't like (such as making it too big) I would happily go with the new design. Wonder if they might put a bigger version of the Civic turbo in (maybe 1.8 instead of 1.5?). Could be interesting. Or, I can find a leftover EX stickshift In December, and get a killer deal (which is what I did when I got my 2005 Accord, the week before Xmas 2005).

xwesx · November 2016

qbrozen said:
The EX is the smartest choice for me, I believe.

I can't remember what year you tested that put the EX at the top of your list; I'm just wondering if the comfort level of the seating in the 2010 is the same as the year you tried out. If so, it does seem like a pretty solid compromise. And, if the cost of this one makes it viable to have a fun/project car, you may end up being satisfied with your DD for longer than if one car had to play all (most) roles.

graphicguy · November 2016

Stick.....I found this one for an iPad Air......

https://www.amazon.com/Logitech-920-005510-Ultrathin-Magnetic-Keyboard/dp/B00EZ9XGE4/ref=sr_1_4?s=pc&ie=UTF8&qid=1480545198&sr=1-4&keywords=ipod+air+2+keyboard

Little cheaper and for a different model than I have. I like Logitech accessories, but there's also some out there from Belkin, and I even think Apple has one. Depends on how much you use your iPad. If I'm not doing Power Points or Spreadsheets and presenting, I just take my iPad with me to do emails and Word docs instead of hauling around my laptop.

kyfdx · November 2016

This girl needs advice:
http://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/43751/toyota/celica/how-to-trade-in-or-sell-my-1994-celica-gt#latest

tbirdmarco · November 2016

Congrads to those who have baught an new car in the past few weeks. hope that everyone had an very happy thanksgiving and that all has bin going whell with everyone in hear. Have an good night and rest of the week to all following along every day not posting much lol

cdnpinhead · November 2016

Good to hear from you, Marco.

nyccarguy · November 2016

Good to hear from you Marco. Happy Thanksgiving to you & you or family as well.

tjc78 · November 2016

Just got a text from my Mom "Just made last lease payment" on the Venza. Looks like I'm car shopping again.

Wants a RAV (ugh)

@Michaell heading to Lease Forum.

She has missed her 09 RAV since the day after getting the Venza, so I'm not arguing.

Edit. What the heck Toyota, LEs only come with black interior it seems.

nyccarguy · November 2016

http://stamfordford.com/used-bmw-3-series-335i-xdrive-2013-stamford-ct-57834

The Good:

It's got AWD, the 300 hp turbo motor, (I think) an ///M Sport package, and has a (somewhat) reasonable asking price of under $28K. It's a stick.

The Bad:

It's got 52K miles which means it is completely out of BMW's original BtoB warranty, it's Black with Black guys. It's a stick.

stickguy · November 2016

Bradd, some good, some bad. The good is the stick. The bad, most everything else!

Tom, I just read a review on the new CRV. The old one made IMO the RAV seem shabby. The new one sounds like it will make it seem like an antique.

28firefighter · November 2016

nyccarguy said:

http://stamfordford.com/used-bmw-3-series-335i-xdrive-2013-stamford-ct-57834 The Good: It's got AWD, the 300 hp turbo motor, (I think) an ///M Sport package, and has a (somewhat) reasonable asking price of under $28K. It's a stick. The Bad: It's got 52K miles which means it is completely out of BMW's original BtoB warranty, it's Black with Black guys. It's a stick.

I still think one of the best used car bargains right now is a 13-14 X1 xDrive 35i. I've seen them CPO with decent mileage in the mid-20s.

nyccarguy · November 2016

28firefighter said:

nyccarguy said:

http://stamfordford.com/used-bmw-3-series-335i-xdrive-2013-stamford-ct-57834

The Good:

It's got AWD, the 300 hp turbo motor, (I think) an ///M Sport package, and has a (somewhat) reasonable asking price of under $28K. It's a stick.

The Bad:

It's got 52K miles which means it is completely out of BMW's original BtoB warranty, it's Black with Black guys. It's a stick.

I still think one of the best used car bargains right now is a 13-14 X1 xDrive 35i. I've seen them CPO with decent mileage in the mid-20s.

Agreed. I don't LOVE the styling though.

28firefighter · November 2016

nyccarguy said:

nyccarguy said:

http://stamfordford.com/used-bmw-3-series-335i-xdrive-2013-stamford-ct-57834 The Good: It's got AWD, the 300 hp turbo motor, (I think) an ///M Sport package, and has a (somewhat) reasonable asking price of under $28K. It's a stick. The Bad: It's got 52K miles which means it is completely out of BMW's original BtoB warranty, it's Black with Black guys. It's a stick.

I still think one of the best used car bargains right now is a 13-14 X1 xDrive 35i. I've seen them CPO with decent mileage in the mid-20s.
Agreed. I don't LOVE the styling though.

Me either. My guess is most people feel that way and that's why their resale is in the tank. Also, not that this is a downside to me, but it is based on the older E90 3-series.

breld · November 2016

@nyccarguy - other than the miles being a bit high, that's quite nice. The black on black isn't too exciting, but it is sharp. Love the M-sport on any BMW.

Seems like there are a lot of these 2013 F30 3-series coming back on lease right now - for a little more money, you could probably find one with lower miles and certified. Especially if you're open to the 4 cylinder as well.

nyccarguy · November 2016

@breld - I saw a 428xi Grand Coupe tonight in white on the way home. Good choice my friend! Gorgeous car!

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