Edmunds Members - Cars and Conversations (Archived)

berri · May 2019

Leasing or contracting out - I'm always a bit leery about those purported savings. I know it has worked well in some instances, but over time I think there is at least an equal chance that the low bidder gets money back through change orders, litigation, or cutting corners that eventually leads to problems. Then there are the situations where the low bidder ends up out of business, often with little warning. I'm doubtful that there is any magic one size fits all solution to these problems.

ruking1 · May 2019

berri said:
Leasing or contracting out - I'm always a bit leery about those purported savings. I know it has worked well in some instances, but over time I think there is at least an equal chance that the low bidder gets money back through change orders, litigation, or cutting corners that eventually leads to problems. Then there are the situations where the low bidder ends up out of business, often with little warning. I'm doubtful that there is any magic one size fits all solution to these problems.

One will never know if the issue is conceived in the circular kind of manner of doubtful thinking. Penciling on one 8.5 in x 11 in piece of paper with a # 2 pencil & a big eraser will help far better. If that is a real chore, one could go to one’s CPA. Bata bing, bata boom.

PF_Flyer · May 2019

driver100 said:
Anyone else get price drop deals from Edmunds every day? This one seemed pretty good;
2016 Ford Fusion $18000
Titanium 4dr Sedan w/EcoBoost (2.0L 4cyl Turbo 6A)
Mileage:24,458 milesExterior: Interior

I don't get them every day, but then again, I'm not quite a CCBA member

fintail · May 2019

If one likes insane out of control healthcare (and housing, and transportation, etc) costs and a litany of dumb public works projects that benefit a small few, move to the Seattle metro.

Funny thing is, it is still better than many other places, even with its foibles and failings. Many must agree, as population continues to expand with no end in sight. At least it is kind of part of the first world, unlike large swaths of the nation.

I also find it amusing that many who whine about "socialism" as some kind of weird pejorative (yet they can't define it) likely benefit from both lucky birth timing and fat publicly funded entitlement bennies.

ab348 · May 2019

Not to go on a political path here but I will make this one comment. During my career I worked for all 3 of our political parties here when they formed government. We have a Conservative party, a New Democratic Party (shortened to NDP) who are socialist, and a Liberal party who are supposedly somewhat between the two, though in my experience I found them more fiscally conservative than the Conservatives here.

The NDP were the only ones who believed that govt spending for its own sake was a good thing, and who believed that govt should deliver things that were traditionally done by the private sector. During their time in office, every one of the things they either brought in-house or retained against advice to get rid of ended up costing the taxpayers a lot of money that did not need to be spent. When you look at how inefficient and expensive a bureaucracy is in actually delivering things that really is no surprise. I think where things changed during my time is when govt operations went from being somewhat lean and frugal to adopting "best practice", which in my experience is code for bigger, slower, more ineffective and far more expensive bureaucracy. When local govts start acting like federal govts in terms of their structure and operations, hold on to your wallet.

ruking1 · May 2019

fintail said:
If one likes insane out of control healthcare (and housing, and transportation, etc) costs and a litany of dumb public works projects that benefit a small few, move to the Seattle metro.

Funny thing is, it is still better than many other places, even with its foibles and failings. Many must agree, as population continues to expand with no end in sight. At least it is kind of part of the first world, unlike large swaths of the nation.

I also find it amusing that many who whine about "socialism" as some kind of weird pejorative (yet they can't define it) likely benefit from both lucky birth timing and fat publicly funded entitlement bennies.

Too funny! I’m glad I wasn’t drinking coffee as I read the above post. The nirvana of which one speaks sounds like a good place to go to hang out with a MB diesel Sprinter long wheel base, custom van conversion (socialist conversion, options: A/C, WiFi, SAT TV, toilet, shower, solar panels, etc,).

I take it free food, homeless monies like $500 per person, healthcare, free weed, etc., are on the menu’s. I will also need water, electricity, gray water hook ups & parking berth in Pike Place Market. 👍🍳🚽🍔 Speaking of coffee, one of my favorite start up’s Starbucks is close by. Is there anything else I’m missing out on ?😇

Meanwhile, over @ FORD...https://www.yahoo.com/news/bigger-cuts-expected-23-000-110509452.html

ab348 · May 2019

Getting back to cars, this from the L.A. Times:

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-musk-stock-finance-20190521-story.html

‘Dark clouds over Fremont’: Tesla enters survival mode as stock price drops

Elon Musk’s growth story is looking more like a fable as Tesla Inc. enters survival mode.

Just over two weeks ago, Musk boasted to stock analysts and big investors that the company was on course to reach half a trillion dollars in market value. Since then, Tesla’s stock price has dropped 19.5%, vaporizing $8.8 billion in market value. The remaining $36-billion market capitalization is 7% of what Musk is telling the world Tesla will be worth.

On Friday, Tesla’s stock price dropped below $200 a share for the first time since December 2016. On Monday it fell as much as 7% before finishing at $205.36. On Tuesday it opened under $200 again.

The spark was provided by Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, who was once an enthusiastic Tesla supporter. On Sunday he cut his price target for the stock to $230 from $275 and issued a note to investors that said Musk faced a “code red” situation on his finances and a “Kilimanjaro-like uphill climb” to hit profitability goals in the second half of the year.

“There are dark clouds forming over Fremont,” Ives said in an interview, referring to the site of Tesla’s car factory in California.

A storm was already brewing in January when Musk announced that 2,500 workers, 7% of the workforce, would be laid off. That came after 9% were laid off the previous June, with Musk saying, “We are making this hard decision now so we never have to do this again.” After two profitable quarters in late 2018, it seemed the time had come for Musk to buckle down and make good on his promise to deliver a mass-market car efficiently and profitably. Then came the first quarter from hell.

Tesla’s financial condition has only deteriorated since then. Musk has responded on two tracks: He’s watching every penny of expense, while talking up a series of projects with varying degrees of likely completion — from a new Model Y crossover to a robo-taxi service he employed to pitch the recent stock-and-bond sale. In the past such products, like the Tesla semi, while derided by critics as vehicular vaporware, have managed to boost the stock price. No more.
...

Meanwhile, the market appears to be taking a more skeptical view of what Ives calls Tesla’s “sci-fi projects.” The robo-taxi idea took a big hit last week when federal safety regulators said Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assist system was turned on 10 seconds before a Tesla in Daytona Beach, Fla., drove underneath a semitrailer in March, slicing off the roof of the car and decapitating the driver. That’s the second time that’s happened with Autopilot engaged.

T. Rowe Price, once one of Tesla’s largest investors, announced in government filings last week that it had cut its Tesla stake by 81% in the first quarter, further pressuring Tesla’s stock premium. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a longtime Tesla cheerleader, now has a $230 target price on Tesla. In an investor note Tuesday he dropped his “worst case” price from $97 to $10 a share.

Jonas said potential sales to China could be cut by half due to the trade war. The overall auto market in China already is seeing a sales decline for the first time in a generation. The auto market in the U.S. is softening as well.

To remain an ongoing concern, Tesla must sell enough cars with a high enough profit margin to keep the lights on, never mind expanding into other product categories. Either that or raise yet more capital.

As it is, Tesla is paying a rising price for capital. Bonds due in 2025 that carry a 5.3% coupon reached more than 9% yield last week, which according to Bloomberg is well above the average yield for a company with the same rating. And as time goes on, capital may become even more expensive for Tesla.

driver100 · May 2019

PF_Flyer said:

driver100 said:
Anyone else get price drop deals from Edmunds every day? This one seemed pretty good;
2016 Ford Fusion $18000
Titanium 4dr Sedan w/EcoBoost (2.0L 4cyl Turbo 6A)
Mileage:24,458 milesExterior: Interior

I don't get them every day, but then again, I'm not quite a CCBA member

How did I become a member?

oldfarmer50 · May 2019

explorerx4 said:
I never heard back for vroom regarding my request for a buy quote.
That means either I gave them the wrong contact info or they don't want my car.
I didn't notice very many Fusions on their site and one of the one's I clicked on wasn't there anymore.
Overall, I'm 50/50 about selling it, it's a good car, but I am always looking for the next one.

With Ford leaving the car sector you might consider holding on to it. Fusions May become scarce and therefore retain value.

driver100 · May 2019

graphicguy said:

driver100 said:

graphicguy said:

It’s not that I don’t like those areas. I just remember the day to day struggle more than I do the city.

Moving back to the Mid-West, all of a sudden life became easier, much easier. Now, I don’t mind visiting the east coast and west coast, I just know when I get home, I can buy a new car whenever I want, going out for a nice dinner, taking nice vacations, etc without worrying about being evicted.
.
Toronto is similar. I say, if I had lots and lots of money you could have a nice life in Toronto, theater, restaurants, taxis, a chauffeur would be really nice....but, for us average people, I'd rather live in an area that is more affordable.

@driver100 ....I mentioned we have a large office in Mississauga.....near Toronto. Great city. But, in talking to my colleagues who live there, if it weren’t for the fact that they bought property 20 years ago, they say they couldn’t afford to live there. That said, their property today is worth quit a bit.

Mississuga is the next city west of Toronto, attached to Toronto. A detached home in Mississauga has an average price of $1,181,365. Prices have fallen as the market got overheated, the highest point was about a year ago when the average price was $1,253,748.

How are you going to buy in today unless you have had a home, or you have an extraordinary income.

Detached homes sold in Toronto are the most expensive, with an average price of $1.35 million.

stickguy · May 2019

I wonder that too. I watch a lot of HGTV, and on the property brothers type shows that are in Toronto area, they have people looking at these houses where their budget is $1million+ sometimes (and the crappy houses you get for say $700,000 before rehab are pretty amazing). But the kicker is, it's a younger couple, sometimes working class type jobs (cop, teacher) if they say with a couple of young kids. so unless they have been riding the appreciation escalator for a while, hard to understand how they afford the payments on a house that expensive. Unless $6,000/month mortgages are just the norm!

ruking1 · May 2019

stickguy said:
I wonder that too. I watch a lot of HGTV, and on the property brothers type shows that are in Toronto area, they have people looking at these houses where their budget is $1million+ sometimes (and the crappy houses you get for say $700,000 before rehab are pretty amazing). But the kicker is, it's a younger couple, sometimes working class type jobs (cop, teacher) if they say with a couple of young kids. so unless they have been riding the appreciation escalator for a while, hard to understand how they afford the payments on a house that expensive. Unless $6,000/month mortgages are just the norm!

HGTV would appear to appeal to a very specific demographic (Toronto suburb?) . Be that as it may, to add to your last question: roommates.

ab348 · May 2019

It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.

ruking1 · May 2019

ab348 said:
It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.

I’m not sure what you don’t get. Your second sentence shows a treasure trove. If the couple does the home rehabilitation correctly, it can be an embarrassment of riches & the provincial government/s LOVES it.

berri · May 2019

@ruking1

I believe you can have 3 CPA firms review something and get three different answers. Accounting and finance are not exact sciences, sometimes having many shades of grey despite the textbook. Statistical and systems analysis can be very subjective and suffer from GIGO. I stand by my statement. It is not circular reasoning, rather a reflection of reality.

ruking1 · May 2019

berri said:
@ruking1

I believe you can have 3 CPA firms review something and get three different answers. Accounting and finance are not exact sciences, sometimes having many shades of grey despite the textbook. Statistical and systems analysis can be very subjective and suffer from GIGO. I stand by my statement. It is not circular reasoning, rather a reflection of reality.

No doubt, I routinely use three (4 if it’s important) CPA firms and they routinely get/give three different answers. What about multiple opinions are hard to understand, integrate, etc.?

To sentence # 2/3. So what?

I’m OK you standing with your statement. As I have also said & repeat, it didn’t convey any information & still doesn’t. It’s (yours) an in exact opinion about an in exact opinion with many shades of grey. It’s very subjective & suffer from your GIGO.

Is it so wonderful to have analysis paralysis in one’s life?

berri · May 2019

We'll agree to disagree. Analysis has quantitative and qualitative aspects. My point still is that leasing and contracting out are not sure winners and solutions. If you are a CPA, you know that.

Mr_Shiftright · May 2019

Tesla stock is down to $193 right now and falling slowly. I think one of the main concerns is that demand in the U.S. for the Model 3 is saturated, and so Tesla cannot sell enough cars, fast enough, to keep paddling.

I think Tesla fans are very enthusiastic about the company and the cars they are driving, but you know, you also have to be realistic about the data.

stickguy · May 2019

I thought early on, his play was build up inflated value on the hype, sell the car building business, and run with batteries and charging portions.

tifighter · May 2019

The product isn't too shabby-

https://motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-330i-vs-genesis-g70-comparison-test/

berri · May 2019

I've kind of felt that Tesla's future may more lie in its battery technology than its vehicles. But technological gains can be fleeting.

ruking1 · May 2019

In some ways, the EV PVF (passenger vehicle fleet) (4% to LESS) has already done it’s job. (lessen barrels of oil demand) It’s also solidified and strengthened the demands for coal, existing & more future coal fired plants. Germany is almost a prime example for solid coal fired products FAR into the future.

The USA folks granting the EV tax credits, write off’s, special dispensations, etc,. are already starting the pull back. Right now it’s been known for decades that solar, wind, etc., could not exist without federal, state, local, world tax credits, multiple bankruptcies, etc.

Also, the 10% ethanol has done its (pollutive) part. There are huge TMI’s about ethanol.

If they had let diesel be a much greater % than 5%, (to a minimum of 23% diesel, to ideal 60% PVF) we’d be literally in the lesser energy (barrels of oil) demand cat bird seat. (Minus -47 %, LESS demand) This is/would be huge!

oldfarmer50 · May 2019

ab348 said:
It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.

I would assume there is some sort of subsidy from the show.

Speaking of homes, I got an interesting offer in the mail. Some outfit wants to give me an interest free loan up to $66k or 17.5% of my home value that doesn’t need to be paid back. When I sell the house or croak they get 25% of the appreciation in value plus the original loan amount. If the house stayed the same they just got back the original loan amount and if your house dropped in value they would share your loss.

A lot of the figures they gave didn’t seem to add up. Has anyone heard of such a thing? Sounds like a take on reverse mortgages.

ruking1 · May 2019

Junk mail, shred the name & address labels. 👀

ab348 · May 2019

ruking1 said:

ab348 said:
It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.
I’m not sure what you don’t get. Your second sentence shows a treasure trove. If the couple does the home rehabilitation correctly, it can be an embarrassment of riches & the provincial government/s LOVES it.

A home-based business is not a home renovation business. It is instead where you are making necklaces or ceramics in your basement. Or I suppose you could be dealing illicit substances too, but whatever.

qbrozen · May 2019

https://www.supermoney.com/2017/08/patch-homes-review-heloc-alternative/

cdnpinhead · May 2019

Remember the DeLorean? The Tesla could be headed down the same road.

ruking1 · May 2019

ab348 said:

ruking1 said:

ab348 said:
It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.
I’m not sure what you don’t get. Your second sentence shows a treasure trove. If the couple does the home rehabilitation correctly, it can be an embarrassment of riches & the provincial government/s LOVES it.
A home-based business is not a home renovation business. It is instead where you are making necklaces or ceramics in your basement. Or I suppose you could be dealing illicit substances too, but whatever.

That might well be true! But.... why not? One can indeed make “necklaces, ” but it does not exclude doing a cracking home renovation. Who knows, it may sell. Why do illegal, when legal ways are wonderful?

Mr_Shiftright · May 2019

tifighter said:
The product isn't too shabby-

https://motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-330i-vs-genesis-g70-comparison-test/

Kinda stretching it calling a Model 3 "luxury" though. It's really not. And they're calling it a "sport sedan", which none of the 3 cars tested is by my definition.

Anyway, it's not the car that's the problem with Tesla. The product is more than good enough. It's everything that surrounds it.

(Stock is at 192 right now).

tjc78 · May 2019

cdnpinhead said:
Remember the DeLorean? The Tesla could be headed down the same road.

Roads?.... where we are going we don't need roads!

oldfarmer50 · May 2019

qbrozen said:
https://www.supermoney.com/2017/08/patch-homes-review-heloc-alternative/

That’s exactly what I got except the company name was different. Sounds like a good deal if you live in a crumbling rust belt city but not if you were in Fintail’s neighborhood.

driver100 · May 2019

Mr_Shiftright said:
Tesla stock is down to $193 right now and falling slowly. I think one of the main concerns is that demand in the U.S. for the Model 3 is saturated, and so Tesla cannot sell enough cars, fast enough, to keep paddling.

I think Tesla fans are very enthusiastic about the company and the cars they are driving, but you know, you also have to be realistic about the data.

Not only that....they aren't going to be the only game in town....and probably won't be the best.

driver100 · May 2019

berri said:
I've kind of felt that Tesla's future may more lie in its battery technology than its vehicles. But technological gains can be fleeting.

Blackberry comes to mind.

qbrozen · May 2019

cdnpinhead said:
Remember the DeLorean? The Tesla could be headed down the same road.

The president selling cocaine to keep the company afloat?

driver100 · May 2019

ruking1 said:

ab348 said:

ruking1 said:

ab348 said:
It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.
I’m not sure what you don’t get. Your second sentence shows a treasure trove. If the couple does the home rehabilitation correctly, it can be an embarrassment of riches & the provincial government/s LOVES it.
A home-based business is not a home renovation business. It is instead where you are making necklaces or ceramics in your basement. Or I suppose you could be dealing illicit substances too, but whatever.
That might well be true! But.... why not? One can indeed make “necklaces, ” but it does not exclude doing a cracking home renovation. Who knows, it may sell. Why do illegal, when legal ways are wonderful?

Illegal pays much better!

sda · May 2019

I parked next to this clean 89 Caprice. Had a nice shine, all complete except two plastic bumper fillers and strip. Interior very nice and rare around here, the dash looked new and free of cracks. For $3k, it looks like a decent buy.

driver100 · May 2019

oldfarmer50 said:

qbrozen said:
https://www.supermoney.com/2017/08/patch-homes-review-heloc-alternative/
That’s exactly what I got except the company name was different. Sounds like a good deal if you live in a crumbling rust belt city but not if you were in Fintail’s neighborhood.

I was talking about reverse mortgages with Mrs D this morning. This seems like a variation. These plans are great if you don't have to consider inheritances.
Just my non knowledgeable opinion, but this is playing a bit on greed, getting some easy money, and there is an element of gambling involved - who wins in the end. And, I think it is stacked in their favor, and I bet they don't accept all houses into their program.

driver100 · May 2019

sda said:
I parked next to this clean 89 Caprice. Had a nice shine, all complete except two plastic bumper fillers and strip. Interior very nice and rare around here, the dash looked new and free of cracks. For $3k, it looks like a decent buy.

We'll see what oldfarmer says....that one come under his expertise.
I think he needs to get 30000 miles out of it for $3000.

driver100 · May 2019

ab348 said:
It is the same with some of those House Hunters shows on HGTV. They will have a couple where one is working a job and the other has a home-based business of some sort and they are looking at 7-figure homes in Hawaii. I don't get it.

I doubt if those shows pay much toward the cost of the house - in most cases the people are thrilled to be on TV. We have houses not to far away, with 5 garages, probably 8 bedrooms, I'd estimate they must sell for $7 or even $10 million. How do people accumulate that kind of money? Some may be very successful business people, some must have bought expensive property many years ago, but, I think a large percentage must have inherited. It is very difficult to accumulate $10 million through normal channels.

berri · May 2019

I was looking at Automotive News and supposedly Consumer Reports is saying that Tesla Autopilot breaks laws like cutting in too early and other traffic offenses. Maybe it was developed in Boston - just kidding

explorerx4 · May 2019

@oldfarmer50,
I'd probably replace it with another Fusion, 2019 Sport, last year for that model.

fintail · May 2019

Parents might have a lot of equity or maybe even a second house bought back in the day when normal working people could do it (same here), and are helping their kidults (but of course, they built it themselves). I know very few people here in my general demographic who own a detached house within reasonable commuting distance to rat race employment centers who didn't receive significant help.

stickguy said:
I wonder that too. I watch a lot of HGTV, and on the property brothers type shows that are in Toronto area, they have people looking at these houses where their budget is $1million+ sometimes (and the crappy houses you get for say $700,000 before rehab are pretty amazing). But the kicker is, it's a younger couple, sometimes working class type jobs (cop, teacher) if they say with a couple of young kids. so unless they have been riding the appreciation escalator for a while, hard to understand how they afford the payments on a house that expensive. Unless $6,000/month mortgages are just the norm!

fintail · May 2019

Some of Musk's tweets and statements make it look like he's on something stronger than wacky tobacky.

qbrozen said:

The president selling cocaine to keep the company afloat?

snakeweasel · May 2019

oldfarmer50 said:
What’s in the water out in LA?

https://youtu.be/jAe3NR88tZ8

Well when you go put on a rampage you can get tired, it's nice to have a place to live down and rest when you're done terrorizing the natives.

berri · May 2019

Just looking for the electrical hook-up

oldfarmer50 · May 2019

sda said:
I parked next to this clean 89 Caprice. Had a nice shine, all complete except two plastic bumper fillers and strip. Interior very nice and rare around here, the dash looked new and free of cracks. For $3k, it looks like a decent buy.

How many miles?

berri · May 2019

Some of those House Hunters, like Hawaii where a waiter and school teacher are looking at million dollar homes - I'm thinking it was just a tour option where they bought time on a TV show.

oldfarmer50 · May 2019

driver100 said:

sda said:
I parked next to this clean 89 Caprice. Had a nice shine, all complete except two plastic bumper fillers and strip. Interior very nice and rare around here, the dash looked new and free of cracks. For $3k, it looks like a decent buy.
We'll see what oldfarmer says....that one come under his expertise.
I think he needs to get 30000 miles out of it for $3000.

That’s a bit old for me but I did have an 84 Corvette about 8 years ago. My sweet spot is about 15 years old. Fully depreciated but not yet collectible. When can you get antique plates for a car? 30 years?

oldfarmer50 · May 2019

You’ll love this.

In Amsterdam NY (a city one of our posters loves to visit) police pulled over a guy who hand drew his own inspection sticker.

The cop said he admired the man’s initiative but wished he had gotten his car inspected.

That’s funny because Monday I was taking a new vehicle to be inspected and was pulled over by the sheriff. Once I dropped my employer’s name I was wished a good day and let go.

stickguy · May 2019

that is priceless. I was just there last weekend.

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