Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

tifighter · April 2021

Since everyone is having fun with this, I decided to get a number on the X from Vroom, for entertainment purposes. After three days, they came back with an offer for $77K, which would equal 18% depreciation over the 2 years I've owned it. This seems pretty good, but I haven't shopped for numbers anywhere else.

I've got to stop reading this forum.

omarman · April 2021

xwesx said:

28firefighter said:
Wife is off to Hawaii for 5 days with her parents and sister’s family. I’m staying back with the little one. May the odds be ever in my favor...

Hopefully these husband points cover me for the next few mother’s days and Valentine’s days...
Maybe the next *one*; there's a time limit on all things good.

I'm reading that as *all* next ones.

28firefighter · April 2021

It’s great getting a high value on your car. But the question is what do you get? For example a comparable Outback XT would cost us $130/month more over our current lease. Kind of a tough sale in that case to flip it.

corvette · April 2021

It's like trading houses... If you can downsize or arbitrage by moving to a lower cost of living area when prices are inflated, you can come out ahead.

28firefighter · April 2021

corvette said:
It's like trading houses... If you can downsize or arbitrage by moving to a lower cost of living area when prices are inflated, you can come out ahead.

Just tough in this market.

Michaell · April 2021

corvette said:
It's like trading houses... If you can downsize or arbitrage by moving to a lower cost of living area when prices are inflated, you can come out ahead.

That’s what we’re hoping to do in a few years.

Sell the studio - hopefully get our investment back - sell the house in CO (which, at the moment, has appreciated 20% in 3 years), and buy a new house in NM, where houses are roughly 50% of the cost.

tifighter · April 2021

Yeah, all true. In my case, I'd probably drive the Z4 over the summer, then pick something out in the fall, betting that prices come down to normal by then. But it is a bet.

breld · April 2021

tifighter said:
Yeah, all true. In my case, I'd probably drive the Z4 over the summer, then pick something out in the fall, betting that prices comes down to normal by then. But it is a bet.

That’s my hope/bet.

stickguy · April 2021

speaking of the crazy wholesale market, a Jetta update. In our last episode, Carmax was higher by about $200, but that meant taking it in tomorrow (about 10 days before the princess leaves) so we would be short a car (meaning she would want to take ours when she needs one). So just out of curiosity, I had her run it back through Carvana for an update. And they came up about $130. So only about $65 lower. But, would be able to push off the turn in to the following week, and not have to deal with taking the car to the Carmax lot. So looking at is as "renting" a car for a week and a half for only $65, and having it picked up at the end, seemed like an easy decision. So will have her accept the offer and upload the docs later this week, and pick a day to have it collected early the following week.

Crazy world we live in!

benjaminh · April 2021

My TLX is now 2k past the 36,000 lease miles a couple of months before the lease ends. No worries, since we've decided to buy the car, and so I've been taking myself on day trips to see things like the Corvette museum in Bowling Green. The maintenance minder said that it was time for an oil change, and since the last oil change was at 29k that means the MM has allowed 9000 miles between oil changes. 9k is nice compared to the 3k I did all through the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s on various cars. But it's good that the dealer changes with full synthetic.

tjc78 · April 2021

qbrozen said:

tjc78 said:
@qbrozen
What kind of discount off of sticker do you need to make the numbers work for you?

Sounds very similar to my S60 lease. I rolled all taxes and fees in.
It is looking like it won’t work. I thought discountability is much higher than it is. I thought folks were talking about 13% pre-incentive discount on new. Turns out that was including incentives. If I could have gotten 17% pre-incentive on a loaner, it would have worked for us. Apparently that is a pipe dream.

Yes that’s not going to happen. I was around 19% off but that included heavy lease cash (something like $4000 IIRC) and that was not easy to obtain.

au1994 · April 2021

Glad the deal with the Jetta is going to work out for everyone @stickguy.

It never sounded like you were particularly enamored with taking it for yourself.

graphicguy · April 2021

benjaminh said:
My TLX is now 2k past the 36,000 lease miles a couple of months before the lease ends. No worries, since we've decided to buy the car, and so I've been taking myself on day trips to see things like the Corvette museum in Bowling Green. The maintenance minder said that it was time for an oil change, and since the last oil change was at 29k that means the MM has allowed 9000 miles between oil changes. 9k is nice compared to the 3k I did all through the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s on various cars. But it's good that the dealer changes with full synthetic.

Very Cool. I have friends who live in Nashville. Went to visit them during Easter Week. Stopped in Bowling Green and the Corvette Museum along the way. I go to the Corvette Museum at least every couple of years. They’ve even preserved the “sink hole” that swallowed Corvettes from a while back.

‘Grats on keeping the TLX.

nyccarguy · April 2021

Another Green Automatic 5th Generation Prelude:

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/rN0yjZZ7/1997-honda-prelude

stickguy · April 2021

au1994 said:
Glad the deal with the Jetta is going to work out for everyone @stickguy.

It never sounded like you were particularly enamored with taking it for yourself.

Thanks. And yes, it isn’t my dream car. I was just going to buy it to help out the kid, and it was a good deal, so win win. But I wasn’t likely to keep it very long, and I still don’t need a 2nd car really.

Once the buy offers went well above what I would pay for one retail, became a no brainer move to dump it.

Plus, now I don’t have to deal with the current lunacy of the NJ DMV!

sda · April 2021

stickguy said:

au1994 said:
Glad the deal with the Jetta is going to work out for everyone @stickguy.

It never sounded like you were particularly enamored with taking it for yourself.
Thanks. And yes, it isn’t my dream car. I was just going to buy it to help out the kid, and it was a good deal, so win win. But I wasn’t likely to keep it very long, and I still don’t need a 2nd car really.

Once the buy offers went well above what I would pay for one retail, became a no brainer move to dump it.

Plus, now I don’t have to deal with the current lunacy of the NJ DMV!

And a nice addition to your daughter's bank account, which I imagine is quite welcome.

au1994 · April 2021

I like that Prelude. Great color.

Its a very narrow market but I wish there was a nice looking and relatively quick couple like that in the market.

Civic coupe is small, A5, 4 Series and C Class are $$.

Mustang and Camaro while nice and a hoot to drive in some configurations, just don’t float my boat.

graphicguy · April 2021

nyccarguy said:
Another Green Automatic 5th Generation Prelude:

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/rN0yjZZ7/1997-honda-prelude

I like that, too! In great shape, to boot!

breld · April 2021

This is a really cool E90:

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/3LP57nY3/2011-bmw-328i-xdrive-sedan

Obviously short on hp vs the 335i, but one of the last naturally aspirated I-6 models, right? And the M-Sport package seems to be much more prevalent with the 335 models - so it's cool to find a 328i with it.

And whether you like it or not, it's a unique color combo.

breld · April 2021

This is nice too.

https://denver.craigslist.org/ctd/d/lafayette-2004-bmw-e46-330i-zhp-sedan/7308621243.html

For the miles, I actually don't think that price is all that bad.

stickguy · April 2021

Oh, I love that car, including the colors. Only think it needs to be perfect is RWD instead of AWD but I could probably live with that. Even in my neck of the woods. Can’t wait to see what this sells for.

Also assume it has plenty of the usual BMW failure points needing attention at that age and miles, so would budget an immediate $2k to get it all dialed in!

stickguy · April 2021

Nice ZHP too, but certainly pricey.

28firefighter · April 2021

That color is not for me on the E90. I think the ZHP price is a little dear, but not totally out of this world a la EAG. Glenn Shelley is run by Alex McCulloch who is a big BMWCCA contributor - if it's coming from him, you know it is in good shape IMO.

xwesx · April 2021

stickguy said:

Plus, now I don’t have to deal with the current lunacy of the NJ DMV!

You might be able to just send in @qbrozen to sort it out for you! He's an old pro at this, and he loves making that trip so much he sometimes will go 3 or 4 times just to get one set of plates!

tifighter · April 2021

I got an email from Vroom upping their offer a few hundred bucks. I know this is all part of their tactic, but hey, stop that, would you?

I saw a recent interview with the CEO of Cisco where he thought the current processor shortage would continue for 6 more months, with more capacity beginning to flatten the demand curve after that and over the following year.

28firefighter · April 2021

My Jeep is built and is in shipping stage. Looking like mid-may sometime for arrival. Roughly 4-6 weeks from order - not too shabby.

sda · April 2021

28firefighter said:
My Jeep is built and is in shipping stage. Looking like mid-may sometime for arrival. Roughly 4-6 weeks from order - not too shabby.

I may have missed this, did you order it specifically how you want it configured?

nyccarguy · April 2021

A couple of news and notes for the board. Dropped my truck off to have the fuel pump recall performed and the 35,000 mile tire rotation done. They’ve got a Venza for me as a loaner vehicle. It’s an LE. I can’t believe I don’t absolutely hate this car. The seats are comfortable and well bolstered. The power seems adequate (it is certainly faster than the 2015 Legacy I had). It is just an easy car to drive. I reset the MPG when I left the dealership. So far I have averaged 39 mpg. That’s impressive.

I drove from the Toyota dealer to the Ford dealer to check out the 2021 Explorer. They have a Limited in the showroom that is open, but completely dead. A salesman asks if he can help me. I tell him I would like to check out an Explorer with the bench seat in the second row & see how much space is in the 3rd row & behind the 3rd row as well.

As we are walking the lot he asks if I “know what’s going on” with the chip shortage. He then tells me that since there aren’t that many cars to sell that the dealership has switched them to straight salary. He points out a Bronco Sport and tells me he just picked one up and loves it.

I spotted a White/Black Explorer XLT with the 2nd row bench. I open it up, take some measurements, & get comfortable in the front seat. I ask if I can take it for a ride. He says “sure, let me get you a plate and send you on your way.”

The first thing I notice about the Explorer is that there is no doubt it is a 4 cylinder. It’s plenty quick, but the engine did seem buzzy to me. I really liked how it drove. I love the fact that it’s a RWD based chassis. It’s smooth and just drives right. Sounds cheesy, but I remember the old “have you driven a Ford lately?” I haven’t, but I’m glad I did. The Explorer is a nice package. I’m going to find some time for my wife to drive it and see how comfortable it is for my kiddos. Then I’ll have to decide between XLT & Limited models and see if I can find a place to strike a deal with.

explorerx4 · April 2021

@nyccarguy,
Not sure how well an Explorer is going to lease, which is what I think is important to you.
Have just over 2k on my 2020 Explorer XLT.
Agree that you can tell the engine is a 4 cyl. It has smoothed out since I first got it, but I don't think it will ever feel as smooth as a 6.
I do like the RWD feel.
The stop/start isn't always smooth, but I found it is overridden when you put on the Auto Hold(lets you take foot off the brake when stopped).
I have the 3 person 2nd row with Easy Entry option for 3rd row.
The 2nd row outboard seats slide to adjust the leg room.
The climate controls are a bit strange. There are buttons to turn on, but then you use the screen to make adjustments, say vents high/dash/low.
A really nice feature is that you can lock all doors when closing the rear hatch.
I'll just stop here.

corvette · April 2021

I think Ford offers a factory warrantied chip for +50hp on the Ranger, but not sure whether it works on the Explorer. It wouldn't increase the refinement, but I'd still probably look into it.

oldfarmer50 · April 2021

nyccarguy said:
Another Green Automatic 5th Generation Prelude:

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/rN0yjZZ7/1997-honda-prelude

Those must be special cars considering the prices they bring.

nyccarguy · April 2021

explorerx4 said:
@nyccarguy,
Not sure how well an Explorer is going to lease, which is what I think is important to you.
Have just over 2k on my 2020 Explorer XLT.
Agree that you can tell the engine is a 4 cyl. It has smoothed out since I first got it, but I don't think it will ever feel as smooth as a 6.
I do like the RWD feel.
The stop/start isn't always smooth, but I found it is overridden when you put on the Auto Hold(lets you take foot off the brake when stopped).
I have the 3 person 2nd row with Easy Entry option for 3rd row.
The 2nd row outboard seats slide to adjust the leg room.
The climate controls are a bit strange. There are buttons to turn on, but then you use the screen to make adjustments, say vents high/dash/low.
A really nice feature is that you can lock all doors when closing the rear hatch.
I'll just stop here.

Thanks! Good to know you are happy with yours so far. As far as leasing goes, the extremely low interest rate coupled with an average residual value and what hopefully amounts to a healthy discount should get me a nice price. Ford Credit offers 24 month leases with a 19,500 mile per year allotment which would be perfect for us.

I’m glad toy mentioned you have the 2nd row bench. I noticed the 2nd row seat on the left and the right are on separate tracks to move. It seems like the middle seat in the 2nd row is in a fixed position (it folds flat). Is there a way to move the entire 2nd row bench? Did I miss something?

I’m definitely impressed.

28firefighter · April 2021

@sda yes. I special ordered in order to get the discount and to get the exact color combo I wanted.

cdnpinhead · April 2021

I hope you keep it for a long time. I had my TSX shipped down from Denver over a decade ago to get the manual transmission and color I wanted. Many on here have their vehicles for a few months or years and don't care so much about things that they'll live with for decades, as if. . .

Yeah, right. There's a real possibility that you'll put it on the block in the next few years, but I hope you'll enjoy it as much in the meantime as I have my TSX.

stickguy · April 2021

this is nice. Wouldn't mind having it.

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/9aLNwWbm/2006-saab-9-2x-aero

corvette · April 2021

stickguy said:
this is nice. Wouldn't mind having it.

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/9aLNwWbm/2006-saab-9-2x-aero

I used to see one of those in my old neighborhood. Not a turbo, though. I forgot that HIDs were a factory option on those. I think the turbos were pretty rare, kind of like the 9-7x with the 5.3.

28firefighter · April 2021

cdnpinhead said:
I hope you keep it for a long time. I had my TSX shipped down from Denver over a decade ago to get the manual transmission and color I wanted. Many on here have their vehicles for a few months or years and don't care so much about things that they'll live with for decades, as if. . .

Yeah, right. There's a real possibility that you'll put it on the block in the next few years, but I hope you'll enjoy it as much in the meantime as I have my TSX.

Well. I’m leasing it, so likely a maximum 3 year stay. But my 4 yo loves pointing Jeeps out (and BMWs but only if they’re stick shift) and I figure we can have some fun together with this one for however long I have it.

tjc78 · April 2021

explorerx4 said:
@nyccarguy,
Not sure how well an Explorer is going to lease, which is what I think is important to you.
Have just over 2k on my 2020 Explorer XLT.
Agree that you can tell the engine is a 4 cyl. It has smoothed out since I first got it, but I don't think it will ever feel as smooth as a 6.
I do like the RWD feel.
The stop/start isn't always smooth, but I found it is overridden when you put on the Auto Hold(lets you take foot off the brake when stopped).
I have the 3 person 2nd row with Easy Entry option for 3rd row.
The 2nd row outboard seats slide to adjust the leg room.
The climate controls are a bit strange. There are buttons to turn on, but then you use the screen to make adjustments, say vents high/dash/low.
A really nice feature is that you can lock all doors when closing the rear hatch.
I'll just stop here.

That’s strange the Auto Hold disabled the S/S. On my cars it does not. Ironically, I find the S/S easier to deal with having AH on. You just touch the gas when you are ready to go and the engine fires up.

@nyccarguy
I don’t think you can go wrong with the Explorer. I too find myself liking the middle row bench, much more flexible than the captain’s chairs. Shame the XC90 is too small for you, I’d love to know your impressions. The one thing I’d say is with the T6 option you’d never know it’s a 4cyl.

explorerx4 · April 2021

@nyccarguy,
Only the outboard 2nd row seats move, middle is fixed and just folds flat.
My XLT doesn't have any power ports in the 3rd row area.

nyccarguy · April 2021

In other automotive news & notes, my best friend just picked up his Raptor after it had been sitting at the dealer awaiting parts for the past 3+ weeks. After numerous calls to the Ford dealer (and finally getting the owner involved), he's not super confident that whatever they fixed wasn't fixed correctly. The Raptor's size (step in height, vehicle height, & girth) are starting to wear on him. He loves the power, the way it drives, & the technology. He started looking at Land Cruisers & Lexus LX570s. He stopped at a Toyota dealer (where he purchased a Corolla Hybrid for a delivery vehicle not too long ago) and was offered $5K more than he paid for his Raptor some 10ish months ago.

He drove an L/Certified 2017 LX570 with 24K miles on it. It's a great driving SUV, but it is just so outdated as far as the tech goes. Their asking price is $67K which is a far cry from it's original $100K sticker price just 4 years ago, but still expensive.

nyccarguy · April 2021

Most importantly, 19 years ago today I punched my card and took delivery of my Milano Red 2001 Honda Prelude Type SH. While it is far from the perfect condition of some of the more recent Cars & Bids or even @pensfan83 's car, but once I get the deferred maintenance done and have new tires put on it I will once again be able to enjoy my commute a few days a week and schlep my kids around on the weekend with it.

kyfdx · April 2021

stickguy said:
this is nice. Wouldn't mind having it.

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/9aLNwWbm/2006-saab-9-2x-aero

That's cool. At one time, we were shopping for one for my son. The Aero turbo models are hard to find. @nyccarguy went to look at one in NJ for me, but it was uber rusty, underneath. A luxury WRX at a much cheaper price!

stickguy · April 2021

At this point I likely to find a super clean one around here sadly.

oldfarmer50 · April 2021

tifighter said:
I got an email from Vroom upping their offer a few hundred bucks. I know this is all part of their tactic, but hey, stop that, would you?

I saw a recent interview with the CEO of Cisco where he thought the current processor shortage would continue for 6 more months, with more capacity beginning to flatten the demand curve after that and over the following year.

What I’d like to know is there an unusual spike in chip demand that’s causing the shortage or is this a supply side problem caused by the pandemic? Or is there some totally unrelated source of the shortage like another country buying them all up?

nyccarguy · April 2021

kyfdx said:

stickguy said:
this is nice. Wouldn't mind having it.

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/9aLNwWbm/2006-saab-9-2x-aero
That's cool. At one time, we were shopping for one for my son. The Aero turbo models are hard to find. @nyccarguy went to look at one in NJ for me, but it was uber rusty, underneath. A luxury WRX at a much cheaper price!

I remember going to that extremely shady part of NJ to go and look at that car for you. Even the dealer was sketchy. When I asked to test drive the car, he said; "you drove here? Can I just hold your car keys?" He didn't ask what kind of car it was or where it was parked.

oldfarmer50 · April 2021

nyccarguy said:
A couple of news and notes for the board. Dropped my truck off to have the fuel pump recall performed and the 35,000 mile tire rotation done. They’ve got a Venza for me as a loaner vehicle. It’s an LE. I can’t believe I don’t absolutely hate this car. The seats are comfortable and well bolstered. The power seems adequate (it is certainly faster than the 2015 Legacy I had). It is just an easy car to drive. I reset the MPG when I left the dealership. So far I have averaged 39 mpg. That’s impressive.

I drove from the Toyota dealer to the Ford dealer to check out the 2021 Explorer. They have a Limited in the showroom that is open, but completely dead. A salesman asks if he can help me. I tell him I would like to check out an Explorer with the bench seat in the second row & see how much space is in the 3rd row & behind the 3rd row as well.

As we are walking the lot he asks if I “know what’s going on” with the chip shortage. He then tells me that since there aren’t that many cars to sell that the dealership has switched them to straight salary. He points out a Bronco Sport and tells me he just picked one up and loves it.

I spotted a White/Black Explorer XLT with the 2nd row bench. I open it up, take some measurements, & get comfortable in the front seat. I ask if I can take it for a ride. He says “sure, let me get you a plate and send you on your way.”

The first thing I notice about the Explorer is that there is no doubt it is a 4 cylinder. It’s plenty quick, but the engine did seem buzzy to me. I really liked how it drove. I love the fact that it’s a RWD based chassis. It’s smooth and just drives right. Sounds cheesy, but I remember the old “have you driven a Ford lately?” I haven’t, but I’m glad I did. The Explorer is a nice package. I’m going to find some time for my wife to drive it and see how comfortable it is for my kiddos. Then I’ll have to decide between XLT & Limited models and see if I can find a place to strike a deal with.

I thought I was the only one who found the Venza interesting. You have to get past the cheap interior but it’s pretty zippy and somewhat tossable.

stickguy · April 2021

oldfarmer50 said:

tifighter said:
I got an email from Vroom upping their offer a few hundred bucks. I know this is all part of their tactic, but hey, stop that, would you?

I saw a recent interview with the CEO of Cisco where he thought the current processor shortage would continue for 6 more months, with more capacity beginning to flatten the demand curve after that and over the following year.
What I’d like to know is there an unusual spike in chip demand that’s causing the shortage or is this a supply side problem caused by the pandemic? Or is there some totally unrelated source of the shortage like another country buying them all up?

Just got new issue of C&D yesterday and a columnist talked about it. Sounds like short sighted car companies shot themselves in the foot. Last year, when sales of new took initial hit, car companies cancelled a bunch of orders and gave up their supply pipeline. And electronics companies swooped in and grabbed all the extra capacity. When car companies wanted to ramp production back up, there was no chip production capacity for them so they had to go to back of the line.

Most likely chip companies will eventually be able to take the customers back, and I assume should be building new production facilities (something that would be good for US companies to build here!)

nyccarguy · April 2021

Just to add to my explorer commentary, the 10 Speed AT is mated perfectly to the turbo charged 4cyl engine. Always seems to be in the right gear, no hunting, smooth, & you don't feel it shifting 6 times from the time you take off from the light until you cross the intersection.

graphicguy · April 2021

oldfarmer50 said:

tifighter said:
I got an email from Vroom upping their offer a few hundred bucks. I know this is all part of their tactic, but hey, stop that, would you?

I saw a recent interview with the CEO of Cisco where he thought the current processor shortage would continue for 6 more months, with more capacity beginning to flatten the demand curve after that and over the following year.
What I’d like to know is there an unusual spike in chip demand that’s causing the shortage or is this a supply side problem caused by the pandemic? Or is there some totally unrelated source of the shortage like another country buying them all up?

Having just retired from that biz, I still stay in touch with former colleagues.

It’s a number of issues. Raw materials to make the chips became scarce because the companies who supplied them couldn’t produce during COVID. No secret that most ICs, CPUs, GPUs etc are made in China. When they went down as the first country to suffer massive COVID infections and deaths, that entire production run shut down.

My former company had a mothballed CPU factory in California which they were thinking of starting back up. But, it would have taken years to get the clean rooms ready and train staff to get it up and running again. They also looked at other plants (mainly in Viet Nam), but they couldn’t produce the tight tolerances needed.

On top of all that, the auto manufacturers decided a long while ago that they only wanted to deal with companies which could do JIT (just in time) shipping to them. In short, once they shut down their plants, those chips which were held for them were sold elsewhere. When they came back on line, they had to get to the back of the line to wait their turn for them. Right now, that’s a long line.

It may very well be 6 months for production to catch up to demand. But, there are contracts that have to be honored. Those who bought and agreed to take delivery of product with the fewest caveats, will get first crack. Unless the automotive manufacturers drop their JIT mandates, they’ll continue to find they will have shortages through the rest of this year.

The only vehicles you’re seeing on the lots now are those which trickle out based on buying from 3rd party sources and not directly from the chip manufacturers. However, 3rd party sources are not restricted by the direct contracts the chip manufacturers have with the auto manufacturers. So, if the car companies want those chips (and they do), they’ll pay dearly for them.

The Japanese/Korea based car companies handle it a little differently. They don’t have the same restrictions as GM, Ford and whatever Chrysler is calling themselves these days. You’ll see more Toyotas, Hondas, Nissans, Kias, Hyundais, etc than you will F150s, Rams, Malibus, etc.

What was smart manufacturing 10-15-20 years ago (JIT), isn’t good business practice, now.

The saving grace for American manufacturers is the fact they tend to stuff their dealerships with vehicles. That supply has dwindled.

Actually, the dealerships benefit. They’re making more per unit sold because of supply issues, but the manufacturers are selling at normal prices. Both will suffer from volume cutbacks though.

28firefighter · April 2021

Really great insight, @graphicguy. It also seems the manufacturers have reallocated chip supplies to the most profitable models to keep inventory moving.

Example Jeep has kept Wrangler moving but shut down other factories for lower end models.

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