The Current State of the US Auto Market

andre1969

Sometimes I wish I'd bought into Ford at the bottom of the market. But, I bought other stocks that did even better. For instance, bought a bunch of Nordstrom's stock at around $10/share, back in 2009. It's around $60 or so now. PLUS, paying a dividend of around $1.20 per share.

If I'd put every penny I had on Nordstrom's, I'd be retired now, but, as they say, hindsight is always 20/20. Heck, if I threw it all on Apple back in early 2005, or Cedar far when it was trading for under $10/share back around 2009, I'd be retired as well.

I did take a chance on GM, twice. Before the bankruptcy and after. First time around, I sold at a very slight profit, I think. Second time around, I think I lost about 10%, but put the proceeds into Amazon.com, so ended up doing okay. Also tried Toyota stock, but bailed around the time the sudden acceleration fiasco hit the news. I think I more or less broke even, but when you factor in dividends came out a little ahead.

tlong

By all the talk on these forums, I'd have thought the Malibu would be number 37, not number 10.

I imagine it would be lower if we were counting sales to individuals as opposed to fleets. :P

uplanderguy

Same with any car on that list. No one can tell me with a straight face that Foci, Fusions, Elantras, etc., aren't going into rental car fleets. I would get a Focus about every week I rented for three months straight when in Minneapolis in 2011--it was the older, more reliable style though.

scwmcan

I agree with you assement of the 200, if it had a trunk in proportion to the rest of the car I don't think it would look bad, as it is it just doesn't look quite. Right, the avenger doesn't seem to suffer as badly from this ( perhaps because the Sebring was supposed to sell in Europe too and was shortened more for requirements there, the avenger was north america oly so was allowed to be a bit longer as I recall, I could be wrong though, but the avenger does seem to have a longer trunk, too bad the rest of the styling is better on the 200). I don't think the are truly as bad as people make them out to be ) much like the new malibu), but they are not at the top of the midsized class either.

circlew

Excellent investment. Go Ford!

GM, otoh, has almost returned to the post-failure IPO price.

circlew

But the Impalas were 70% fleet/30% retail. I'm sure Malibu is around 40% fleet.

GM's total lease rate is 26.4% while Toyota 13.15% and Honda 2.01% treat sales fleet as a disease!

I'll post the market share changes with/without fleet for the Top 5 shortly.

andre1969

Do they still have the old 2008-2012 style Malibu around, for fleet buyers? Or would that sales ranking just include the new 2013 Malibu?

I don't think too many of the new Malibus are getting dumped into fleets, at least not yet. I'd think that the outgoing Impala is pretty much filling that role. As cheaply as it can be bought, it seems to make sense to bypass the Malibu and just go with the Impala for your fleets.

I suspect fleet dumping is one reason the Avenger and 200 are so popular.

Mr_Shiftright

GM would have to hit the mid 50s for the gov'mint to break even. Not any time soon.

tlong

GM would have to hit the mid 50s for the gov'mint to break even. Not any time soon.

Also, weren't some of the government stock holdings already sold at a big loss?

Mr_Shiftright

Yes I think some was already sold. Of course, until it is all sold one can't really declare a profit or loss.

uplanderguy

I'll post the market share changes with/without fleet for the Top 5 shortly.

How about some hard numbers about fleet sales of the current Malibu? After all, that is what was being discussed.

tlong, do you have any numbers either?

tlong

tlong, do you have any numbers either?

No, I would have posted them if I had them. As I indicated, it was speculation based upon GM's historic high fleet sales. It could be that the newest Malibu isn't as high a fleet sales percentage, although with sales disappointing I'm sure there is quite a bit of pressure to relieve the high inventories.

uplanderguy

They did not continue making the 2008-2012 style Malibu for fleets, like they are doing for the outgoing Impala.

I suspect you are right, andre, but of course facts never get in the way of a good post on here! LOL

circlew

That includes the new 'Bu and it is available to fleet buyers.

circlew

Looks like fleet are getting in the way at the US companies!

GM Total - 18.15% - No Fleet = 13.35%
Ford Total -16.26% - No Fleet = 11.15%
Chy Total - 11.76% - No Fleet = 8.57%
Toy Total - 14.19% - No Fleet = 12.32%
Hon Total - 9.42% - No Fleet = 9.23%

The "foreign" brands are doing horribly on fleet...except for Hyun-Kia I've heard.

Couldn't find exact number on the 'Bu fleet sales but Chevy is where fleet is King and since it is available to fleet, I assume the new botched 'Bu is continuing the trend.

uplanderguy

Well, the original post was about how many fleet sales the Malibu probably had to attain the number ten position.

Is any car "not available" to fleet buyers? I rather doubt that. As we'd discussed ad nauseum on the old GM forum, there are fleet vehicles that are 'not available' to single retail buyers.

Have a good Memorial Day, all. If you want to be moved, google "Peggy Harris Vernon, TX" and watch the CBS video. She lost her husband in France in 1944 and never remarried, and only in recent years found out he was interred at Normandy and that a French town has honored him every year for over sixty years.

Mr_Shiftright

"Is any car "not available" to fleet buyers? "

Having seen Hyundai Azera yellow cabs, I think not.

nvbanker

You are clearly a GMophile, so don't take offense to this - it's just my opinion. NOTHING out there is more stubbed in the back than the Malibu (2013 excepted). Totally looks unfinished after the C pillar. I would take a Dart any day over the pre 13 Malibu - except for the fact that it's an ALFA under there. Gonna have to see how that works out - Alfa scares the heck out of me.

nvbanker

GM, otoh, has almost returned to the post-failure IPO price.

GM will return to Bankruptcy again - and not too far down the road either. They look better, but they are still phoney baloney on the technology, as they have been since the 80's.

Just delivered a 13 Cruze. Has the turbo (in response to the Ford Ecoboost, which is amazingly smooth, virtually indistinguishable from 0 to whatever, you wouldn't know that it has one except for the amazing acceleration). But the Chevy is horribly jerky all the way up, and even down the Tach. Nothing at first, then after lag is over, jumps away from you - and is constantly jumping around up and down the throttle. Completely irritating. Rather not have that turbo. It acts like it is an old fashioned single turbo, instead of the twin turbo Ford uses. Tremendous difference.

I tried to convince her to get the Elantra or the Sentra, but she wanted that Turbo. She's not happy now.

nvbanker

GM's total lease rate is 26.4% while Toyota 13.15% and Honda 2.01% treat sales fleet as a disease!

Anyone know why after 43 years, Honda is now selling to fleets? One of the reasons for the amazing resale value of Hondas has been the "retail only" sales strategy - not flooding the resale market with their cars. Now, they are selling, albeit not much, to fleets for the first time. Why has their strategy changed?

uplanderguy

I swung by the nearest Chevy dealer to me today. I'm amazed they still have the silver '14 LS at $27,585. I'm astounded at how nice it looks, in and out, for this sticker price. It's in the same spot it was a week or two ago, when I first saw it...looks like it hasn't moved. If I worked there, I'd park it out on the street with the price in big numbers on the windshield. I am extremely impressed with what I see, but as a small observation, seems like a negative that they haven't moved this car yet.

fintail

I think Honda has had very small fleet sales, under 5%, for the past 20 years, maybe more. There are occasional sightings of Civics and Accords in rental fleets. I know over the past year, Enterprise Holdings was sometimes tossing an Accord into the mix, sometimes classified as a "premium" (which is wrong).

I am surprised Toyota is as low as it is, given the volume of rental Yaris, Corolla, Camry, Sienna, and RAV4 in my area - but I guess when private sales are so high, you can sell quite a few rentals and still not be at an overwhelming percentage.

nvbanker

I do business directly with Dollar/Thrifty/General, Hertz, Avis/Budget, Fox & Enterprise, Fin. They have universally told me that Honda would NOT sell them a car for their fleets - until this year - and the only way they could get a Honda in their fleet previously was to buy it used from Honda R & D, or the auctions.

A Honda R & D car has been tested, then dismantled and reassembled for research purposes, then they're sold at auction with the usual warranty left on them. Usually have low miles.
.
The other change in their strategy is interesting - previously, all lease returns were auctions, but in Closed Auction to Honda dealers only. Independent dealers such as me would have to wait until the next day - what the dealers didn't buy was then on sale for the rest of us, but the good horses were already picked over and gone. We got the leftovers. They have changed their policy this year, that ALL Honda lease return cars will be open to all dealers to buy. There are no more Closed Auctions for Honda dealers only.

So, I'm wondering what's up and why? I like the changes from my business standpoint, but they have had a winning strategy for decades - and this is a sudden departure.

fintail

Maybe that was the route - Honda rentals have been bought not new, but not previously registered - like R&D cars. I know I have seen a rental Accord (basic model) here, and I think gagrice rented one a year or two ago. I am pretty sure I have seen a rental Civic or two here, too.

Maybe because so many people are leasing now, that there's too much supply of off-lease cars to be eaten up by dealers? Especially with resale values sometimes being nominal between new and used. Leasing seems to be bigger than ever today, so that kind of makes sense to me.

I will say I have never seen or heard of a rental Acura. But, I have seen and heard of rental Lexus, and of course the premium Euros have dabbled in rentals here for years, and Infiniti is pretty regular in National/Alamo/Enterprise fleets.

berri

Several years ago I saw several Accord's in the Phoenix Hertz fleet. I'm not sure buying used fits the Hertz model because they'd have to be pretty low mileage and Honda has a very high resale value. They've also been using several Accord's in our local High School's driver's ed fleet for the past few years. So I think Honda isn't new to fleet sales, they just have maybe increased their percentage a bit. Personally, as long as you don't overdo it, I don't see anything wrong with rental fleet sales. They expose business people and other good income driver's to driving your product. GM might actually be going too low in fleet sales right now unless they are quickly selling everything they are producing.

circlew

GM might actually be going too low in fleet sales right now unless they are quickly selling everything they are producing.

Not according to Uplander...that '14 Impala still sits after a few weeks now. I'll bet the dealer manager saw him looking at it and now it is reserved for him alone!

uplanderguy

To me, that $27K Impala sells itself. I haven't seen mag ads and only one TV ad for the car yet. But if I were that dealer, I'd pull that Impala out of its spot on the hill and park it in front of the building. It's the only Impala they have right now.

andre1969

Anyone know why after 43 years, Honda is now selling to fleets? One of the reasons for the amazing resale value of Hondas has been the "retail only" sales strategy - not flooding the resale market with their cars. Now, they are selling, albeit not much, to fleets for the first time. Why has their strategy changed?

This is nothing new. The first rental car I ever had was a 1991 Civic, when I went to California for spring break, way back in early 1992! Honda may not flood the market with rentals, but they definitely put a few in there.

Not that that's a bad thing, mind you. After all, people need to rent cars. It only becomes a problem when you keep on building too many cars that nobody wants, so you dump them into various fleets.

Also, the 2012 Civic was a bit of a dud, so it might have had more examples go into rental fleets than in the past.

ohenryx

msg 1649 by uplanderguy:
To me, that $27K Impala sells itself. I haven't seen mag ads and only one TV ad for the car yet.

I have seen the tv ad a couple of times, both times on CNN. Running your ads on CNN is going to attract an older audience, and for sure the Frank Sinatra song is going after really old people. I'm 62, and Frank Sinatra was before my time. I'm not at all sure what they think they're doing, but I'll bet Don Draper wouldn't approve.

uplanderguy

Personally, I'm two weeks short of 55 and I like the Sinatra ad, with the tagline "Classic is back". But I'd never let an ad I like or dislike sway me from or towards a car I liked or disliked.

Mr_Shiftright

I think GM needs to be more aggressive with younger buyers. Now with Pontiac gone, that leaves Buick as the mid-range "moving up" car, and it's an older person's car, so that's not going to work.

Maybe GM thinks that buyers will leap from Chevrolet to Cadillac but to me that's a stretch of optimistic proportions.

lemko

Is that Impala a 4 or 6?

lemko

Heck, I really like Sinatra's music! The ad makes the car even more attractive to me! :shades:

uplanderguy

That's a four--196 hp.

busiris

I like most music, or at least an abide most of it.

What I would like to see is how well former stars like Sinatra, Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers, and Gene Kelly would be rated on the "reality" singing and dancing programs plastered all over the networks today.

obyone

Ever wonder how Pavarotti and Bocelli would do on The Voice?

fintail

I like the ad too - and people under 65 do know of Sinatra, and usually associate that scene with class and swank. It's not the worst strategy.

The ad also shows pretty middle-class looking houses, not faux villas that the average consumer could never obtain. Kudos to that.

fintail

Oh yeah, that was the one where you found the top speed. The 91 Civic was the last of an old style before a much more modern looking 92 model - so maybe there were some leftovers that wound up in a fleet.

I swear I saw a couple 2012 Civics at a local Enterprise.

suydam

Aren't they going after really old people? I'm 61, and an Impala sounds like a car maybe 80 year olds would drive. Maybe. My parents' last cars were a Honda accord and a Mazda van. I can't imagine a market for a full size car but apparently there still is somewhere or they wouldn't be making them.

andre1969

Oh yeah, that was the one where you found the top speed. The 91 Civic was the last of an old style before a much more modern looking 92 model - so maybe there were some leftovers that wound up in a fleet.

That's right, I almost forgot about that! Actually, I never did find out the top speed of that car. I chickened out when it got to 115 mph and started slowing down. Admittedly, it was a long, loooong downhill slope; Cajon pass in California, where I-10 comes out of the high desert and into the more lush, high-dollar areas.

That Civic was actually a nice little car for what it was. And, it gave me a newfound respect for small cars.

andre1969

I can't imagine a market for a full size car but apparently there still is somewhere or they wouldn't be making them.

I think there is still a market for full-sized cars, but it's getting smaller and smaller as the years go by. I'm 43, and would consider an Impala. Or a Charger.

berri

I'm thinking most of the older people that it appears the Impala is focused on will more likely buy a crossover or minivan. Easier to get in and out of and elevated seating is easier on old backs.

uplanderguy

I don't know, berri, I used to have to physically pick my mother up to get her into our van.

I mentioned to a young salesman at the dealer where I deal a couple Saturdays ago--they had no Impala to show as had sold the only one they'd gotten--that I thought they'd get "Buick folks" in looking at the Impala. He agreed, and actually said some Cadillac people had come in to look at one.

If I was in the market for a family car now, that's what I'd be most interested in by far.

stever

I have one Sinatra song on my playlist - the Coffee Song. Zero Diana Shore. I do have a few Dean Martin ones.

andre1969

For the longest time, one of the easiest vehicles to get my grandmother in and out of was my '85 Silverado. It sits up high, but not so high that she couldn't get into it. However, the last time she was in it was 2010, and at that point she was 86, and it was a bit hard to get her in and out. She's pretty much home-bound now, but whenever I do drive her anywhere, I usually take her in my 2000 Park Ave, which is still pretty easy for her to enter and exit.

Oddly, she also doesn't have much trouble getting in my '76 LeMans. As low-slung as it is, the seat actually sits up pretty high. And the sills aren't very wide, to it's easy for her to scoot in and out. She used to have a horrible time with my old Intrepid, though. I think she'd need a stool to climb up into my Ram.

I always found it amusing that my grandmother said she hates her friend's Grand Marquis. The Panther platform was the car of choice for the geriatric set for eons now...yet she complained about the seats being too low, hard to enter/exit, etc.

I think cars are adapting, in general, to the aging of the population. They've been getting taller, with higher seating positions, and larger door openings for awhile now.

uplanderguy

My mother, even in the nursing home, could get in and out of my old '63 Lark easily...chairlike seating, lots of headroom, no floor sills...all stuff they used to advertise about the car. And it had seatbelts. Now, my '02 Cavalier Coupe and our '05 Uplander...two different stories, but for different reasons! She had trouble getting in and out of both of them.

dieselone

I swung by the nearest Chevy dealer to me today. I'm amazed they still have the silver '14 LS at $27,585.

I still haven't seen one when driving by my local dealer. I just checked their website and they have 2. One is an LT for $34k and the other is an LTZ for $36k MSRP.

dieselone

My mother, even in the nursing home, could get in and out of my old '63 Lark easily...chairlike seating, lots of headroom, no floor sills...all stuff they used to advertise about the car. And it had seatbelts. Now, my '02 Cavalier Coupe and our '05 Uplander...two different stories, but for different reasons! She had trouble getting in and out of both of them.

My wife's Taurus isn't particularly easy to get in and out of. When I threw my back out a while back, I could hardly bend enough to get in it. It was much easier for me to enter the Expedition as I don't have to bend my back as much.

fintail

You probably hit top end. When I was a teenager, a friend's mother had a Civic of that style - a loaded EX model. It was pretty plush, the interior being a very nice kind of corduroy velour, IIRC. The 92+ models were a world different to my eyes, they looked very modern for the time.

andre1969

When I threw my back out a while back, I could hardly bend enough to get in it.

Had me a weak back. About a week back! (sorry, bad line from "Mama's Family" ) I remember one time I threw my back out...combination of back, neck, and shoulder it seemed, I got down in my Intrepid, and when I got to work, I think it took me about TEN minutes to get the strength to get out of that car!

I tend to get neck/back spasms on occasion...seems like spring and fall are the most common for some reason, and I learned after that, to drive the truck whenever I got one. Much easier for me to get in and out of, less bending into painful positions, etc. I haven't had a spasm since I bought the Ram though, so I don't know how easy that one will be to get in and out of. Might not be too bad, since I usually have trouble getting down into something when I have the spasms, and the Ram involves getting UP into something!