Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!





Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids

18911131421

Comments

  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    Actual dollars. The percent has probably not fluctuated much either.

    Talk about Asinine. You are saying a Camry XLE (which costs about $2000 more than an LE) maintains that difference throughout its lifecycle. Find one more person who agrees with that.

    2000 Civic EX loaded, 70000 miles = TMV $11,266
    2000 Civic EX loaded, 105000 miles = TMV $9,772

    Not exactly off the chart, is it? But the point is, and every car dealer and anyone in the used car business can verify that the 100K dropoff really exists - it's not something I made up...


    Wait a minute !! You are the one who mentioned the 100K mile dropoff point, not me. And yet TMV , your bible, contradicts that assertion. So what's your position now ?

    That is absolutely false. Hybrid technology has been incredibly stable and proven over multiple millions of real road miles. I have no idea where you might get that asinine and completely untrue opinion

    And how have they been stable. Let's look at a 97/04 Camry and 97/04 Prius, shall we. As far as the internals are concerned, by what % has the Camry improved, and by what % the Prius.
    I'm willing to bet the Pruis has improved by a much larger %. And what does that mean ?
    It means the Prius (hybrid) internal technology is LESS stable.
    (I just chose prius since it's been around longer than the HCH).
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    quote-"You are saying a Camry XLE (which costs about $2000 more than an LE) maintains that difference throughout its lifecycle."-end quote

    What I actually said was "no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value". you are the one who asked me to choose dollars or percentage. Here's this though:

    2000 Camry LE 50K miles TMV = "12,047"
    2000 camry XLE 50K miles TMV = "13,283"

    There are hundreds more where that comes from.

    My point is this: Since the Civic Hybrid sells "at the top end of the Civic line" there will NEVER be a time when a Civic EX/LX/DX will sell for more than a comparably equipped, same condition, same model year HCH. That will NEVER EVER happen.

    quote zodiac2004-"Wait a minute !! You are the one who mentioned the 100K mile dropoff point, not me. And yet TMV , your bible, contradicts that assertion. So what's your position now ?"-end quote

    Forget my opinion. Do the research yourself. Find out if the "100K dropoff" in used car values is true or not using research on your own, and get back to me.

    I have no idea what you are talking about with the "how much have the internals improved?" question. Forget internals on any particular model. Show me where any Hybrid technology has been "unstable." Other than a software problem in the new Prius which has affected less than .0001 percent of the cars, I can't think of anything you might be talking about.
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    What you actually said (in post 311, and subsequently repeated) is this
    "And remember: In the LONG history of the US car market, NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more than a lower model line car in the same family. Since the HCH and the HAH are the "top of the line" for their model families, there is no reason to think they will buck that trend"

    And later in answer to my question you said it was actual dollars.

    So, combining the 2, you actually said "NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more in actual dollars than a lower model line car in the same family."

    You later twisted it to say the following
    "no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value".

    Do you or do you not agree that hybrid technology (internals) has improved significantly over the past few years and are continuing to do so ? If you say NO, then I agree that hybrids have stabilised. If you say YES, my statement about unstable technology holds true.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,158
    You need to get off the TMV disrespect thing.

    I don't think it has anything to do with respect. It has to do with reality. Where has Edmund's found all these TMV prices on used hybrids? If you remember a few months ago I showed a 3 year old Prius that sold for $9100 with 90k miles on it. It was sold by a Toyota dealer in Washington DC on eBay. It was supposedly in primo condition. The Edmund's TMV was almost $16k for that car with that equipment and mileage. I don't think that there is enough evidence to say that a Civic hybrid with 50k - 100k miles will have a better resale than the EX Civic for example. Only a few are willing to take a chance on the new hybrids. Why would many take a chance on a used one. We just had a person buy a 2003 Prius and before the ink dried on the contract she was facing a $2000 + repair to the NAV system. I think anyone buying a hybrid with out some B to B warranty left is asking for a big heartache.
  • otis1otis1 Posts: 142
    how did this get started?

    anyway, i also don't think the HCH will ever sell less than the HC-EX. Forget edmunds for a second- if you see two used civics, more or less equal, but one's hybrid, would you pay more for the hybrid? I would unless one of the following happens from now until then:
    1) Reports of HCH shown to blow up
    2) NYT headlines- "Hybrids out, Mr Fusion in- cars run on garbage as seen in back to the future."
    3) gas is $1 gallon
    4) battery myth becomes reality- everyone with a 5y/o hybrid must pay $$$ to operate car.

    I don't see 1-3 happening. #4 is a maybe at best- but really theres not enough data to conclusively say this is fact. unfortunately as long as the PERCEPTION exists, then this will affect resale- at least until it's disproven.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,158
    i also don't think the HCH will ever sell less than the HC-EX.

    That is because you think the technology is good. I doubt that 10% of the population agrees with that thinking. When I talk to friends and relatives looking for a good mileage car and mention hybrids, the answer is always the same "NO WAY". Hybrids are a long, long way from being accepted by the buying public. Our enthusiasm does not carry over to joe average American. I would not have bought a hybrid PU truck if I could have found the same truck without it. As it was they gave me the option for $1000 over the same truck without hybrid. So far I like it. Then I only have 346 miles on it in two months.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    quote zodiac2004-"Do you or do you not agree that hybrid technology (internals) has improved significantly over the past few years and are continuing to do so."-end quote

    Just because something has "improved" does not mean it was "unstable" before the improvement. Right? right.

    And you have twisted my posts all around trying to make me say something I did not intend to say.

    My point from the start still remains: In the history of USA car sales, no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value. That will also be the case with Hybrids.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,158
    In the history of USA car sales, no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value.

    That is a very broad brush you are painting with. I would say just the opposite is true. If you buy a Civic EX for $20K and a Civic LX for $15K. I would bet after 5 years the EX will have lost a larger percentage of that purchase price than the LX. If you are saying the EX will always be worth more than the LX that is probably so. The HCH however is an unknown and the 3 grand premium is not necessarily going to stay with the car when it has 5 years on it.

    Your own buying experience should have proven that to you. The EX had not lost as much value after 4k miles as the hybrid. That 3 grand was down to a $1500 premium in a matter of months.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    quote gagrice-I doubt that 10% of the population agrees with that thinking. When I talk to friends and relatives looking for a good mileage car and mention hybrids, the answer is always the same "NO WAY".-end quote

    Gary, all that statement shows is that the people you talk to are not properly educated about hybrids. Anyone who takes the time to get EDUCATED about them will see them for the awesome technology and gas-saving home run they really are.

    It's going to take time, but it has continually been happening that more and more people are taking the time to understand the technology. That's why more and more models are coimg out and going to come out. The car companies are meeting a "REAL" demand. And with gas prices not going anywhere but up, more and more people are goint to be buying Hybrids.
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    Where did I twist your posts. Can't you comprehend that I cut and pasted from your own posts.

    "STABLE" means "firm and dependable; subject to little fluctuation;". Therefore something in a state of constant flux is by definition unstable.

    Your point is irrelevant, and makes as much sense as your logic in expounding how much money you save every month by trading in your avalanche for the HCH.

    Let me illustrate if you find my statements difficult to follow :
    If your HCH costs 3000 more than an EX and 5 years later sells for a 1000 more, you have LOST an extra 2000 over the EX in depreciation.
  • molokaimolokai Posts: 313
    I never look at those charts because they're all speculation. Any used car today is a roll of the dice. If someone buys a used hybrid with 50k miles on it they should get the extended warranty. To bring up ONE example of a problem is very stupid indeed. One needs to look at the big picture. I definitely am glad I bought an extended warranty on my Prius. I sure hope I never have to use it, but at least I have piece of mind. I was going to donate my Prius at 100k miles, but I am going to try and keep it as long as it runs. Now that gas is close to 3bucks a gallon, I just can't get this silly grin off my face. Yup... I love owning a hybrid. I love the exclusivity and I love being arrogant against the naysayers.
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    I was going to donate my Prius at 100k miles, but I am going to try and keep it as long as it runs. Now that gas is close to 3bucks a gallon, I just can't get this silly grin off my face. Yup... I love owning a hybrid. I love the exclusivity and I love being arrogant against the naysayers.

    And we also love you for being the scapegoat for nascent technology, and we will someday reap the benefits of what you paid for.

    PS: Even if gas stays $3 a gallon or more, don't get into a dollars/cents argument trying to justify purchase of a new hybrid. You'll LOSE.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Sure, you cut and pasted from my posts, but it was your questioning of my points that led me to say things that were straying away from my basic point, which is that the Hybrids will never sell for less than cars lower in their line. Period.

    Tell me again: Exactly what about hybrid technology is "in a state of flux?" Not the individual cars. Not the performance of the individual cars. You can't mean that because the Prius was "redesigned" that put "hybrids" into a state of flux, can you? Because if you say that, then "all cars" are in a state of flux, since new models and new improvements come along as a matter of course. What exactly about hybrid technology is fluctuating, leading to it's "instability?"

    Your point about the "HCH costs 3000 more than an EX and 5 years later sells for a 1000 more, you have LOST an extra 2000 over the EX in depreciation" is not really a point. That happens on all cars of a line, just as you pointed out earlier. Just because a Camry XLE sells for $2000 more than a Camry LE when new does not mean a Camry XLE 5 years down the road will sell for $2000 more than a comparably equipped LE, does it? No, but you can bet the house it WILL SELL FOR MORE than the LE.

    That's my point about the hybrids - a Civic Hybrid at 100K miles will NOT sell less than a Civic EX at 100K miles "just because it's a hybrid" and the buyer might be worried about a battery replacement. That's just silly.......
  • molokaimolokai Posts: 313
    I got rid of a 2002 Jeep Liberty that got 16 MPG. I KNOW I win. It appears you need a little education.. oops... make that a lot!! Must be the cold weather up there ....ehhhh??

    :P <<--- My Prius is passing all the gas stations while the POOR SUV driver pouts.
  • sinepmansinepman Posts: 137
    I see by your profile that you own an ES300 and an Acura TL. I wonder if you'll ever recoup the extra money you spent on the ES300 which is really a Camry. As to the TL... merely a glorified Honda. LOL!!!!!!!
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    Too bad you didn't get rid of a Navigator, or a Hummer. You could have saved even more.

    Yeah, it's real cold up here. I can barely step out of my igloo !!!

    Talk about getting an education.
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    Ah, the mistake you are making is assuming I bought those cars new. I didn't.

    You want to get into a dollars/cents comparison between my cars and yours. Name the time and place.

    And most importantly, I didn't parade all over the internet about how wise my car buying decisions are. You did. I buy and drive what I like, and I hope to spend the least amount of money while doing so.

    On the subject of being glorified, a Prius is merely a gussied up Echo, a HCH merely an EX with an expensive crutch it doesn't need.
  • frodobfrodob Posts: 8
    PS: Even if gas stays $3 a gallon or more, don't get into a dollars/cents argument trying to justify purchase of a new hybrid. You'll LOSE.

    Actually... at $3/gal I'd about break even vs. the guy next door with the Civic EX...

    ...but that isn't the point. With Hybrid access to the HOV lanes, I've got 45 minutes to an hour of my life back each day that my neighbor and his extra few thousand will never get back.

    Oh... and I've moved out of the area, so I'm selling my three-year-old hybrid. The dealers are currently asking less than three thousand dollars less than I paid for the car three years back. Sure... I'll never get a private party sale at the same price the dealers charge... but even $4,000 depreciation over three years is pretty impressive. That's about the lowest total cost of ownership I've ever seen on a new car.

    Oh yeah... I "LOSE". :D
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    You can't mean that because the Prius was "redesigned" that put "hybrids" into a state of flux, can you? Because if you say that, then "all cars" are in a state of flux, since new models and new improvements come along as a matter of course. What exactly about hybrid technology is fluctuating, leading to it's "instability?"

    This is where a savvy person can distinguish between evolutionary and revolutionary change.
    IC engine technology has been stable for several years, of course undergoing evoutionary change.
    Battery aided hybrids change much more rapidly, simply because nobody really knows what works best. Battery and regen technology have changed dramatically in the past few years. Same as computers. Every couple of years or so there is new chip/memory technology which makes the old ones seem like the stone age.

    I believe you bought an extended warranty with your HCH. There is also the other person (molokai ??) who is proud of the fact he bought one with his Prius. Why buy it? A Civic or Camry certainly doesn't need one.

    Actions speak louder than words.
    You bought the warranty simply for one reason - fear of the unknown.

    When you can buy and treat a Pruis/HCH the same as a Camry/Civic, then I'll agree that the technology is stable.
    And you say a HCH will always be worth more than a EX.
    Can the HCH be serviced at any shade-tree mechanic who can service a Civic? Or can it only be serviced at a dealer? Realise if it's dealer service only, that represents a 100% increase in ongoing maintenance costs and the used car price will reflect that.
    There is a lot more to think about when you try to predict what future resale values will look like rather than making naive statements like "Civic Hybrid at 100K miles will NOT sell less than a Civic EX at 100K miles "just because it's a hybrid"
  • otis1otis1 Posts: 142
    I doubt that 10% of the population agrees with that thinking. When I talk to friends and relatives looking for a good mileage car and mention hybrids, the answer is always the same "NO WAY".

    if 10% of the population were interested in buying hybrids, prices would be sky high. I have no idea what the numbers are (so I'll just make them up- but you'll see my point), but let's assume that hybrids make up 0.01% of the cars on the road. if 1% of the population wanted a used hybrid, then that would skew the supply and demand curves. obviously not everyone who has a hybrid is selling, and not everyone who's interested is buying.

    Zodiac: I reread some of your earlier posts. Do you think a hybrid will depreciate at a faster rate (% wise) than a comparable gas model in a 5+ year time frame? I see a lot of posts where you pick apart some aspect larsb's posts, but I don't really see what you're getting at. so let me take a stab and try to "simplify" both of your points

    Zodiac: buying hybrids is not smart because they'll depreciate like a rock due to possible battery and other repar cost issues.

    Larsb: given the current trend in resale values, and the probability of increasing gas prices and increasing interest in hybrids, the resale will remain strong.

    Am I close?
  • frodobfrodob Posts: 8
    Can the HCH be serviced at any shade-tree mechanic who can service a Civic? Or can it only be serviced at a dealer? Realise if it's dealer service only, that represents a 100% increase in ongoing maintenance costs and the used car price will reflect that.

    "Serviced" like oil changes, alignment, CV boots, AC repairs, Belts, etc etc etc? Sure it can.

    If you mean the IMA system? Probably not... but it already comes with a much longer warranty.

    There is a lot more to think about when you try to predict what future resale values will look like rather than making naive statements like "Civic Hybrid at 100K miles will NOT sell less than a Civic EX at 100K miles "just because it's a hybrid"

    You say that as if they aren't already selling. The hybrid with 100k sells for $2,000 more than the EX. In the DC area it's quite a bit higher than that. The highest mileage on the market near me is over 60k miles and is listed for $17,000.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,158
    The highest mileage on the market near me is over 60k miles and is listed for $17,000.

    That is the price someone is hoping to get. The only place I know that you see prices paid is on eBay motors. Most dealers do not get close to what they want on hybrids. If you know of a better source for actual prices paid in the USA on used cars, please share with us. A few here on the forum have found that they have VERY POOR trade-in value after a couple years.

    The very fact that you are stuck with repair at the dealer after the warranty is up is a big turn off for me. Toyota & Honda are not known for being gracious after the 36k miles is up.
  • molokaimolokai Posts: 313
    Actually most manufactuers have hidden warranties that they don't want to consumers to find out about. GM and Ford are notorious for not giving a little wiggle room. They simply can't afford to as they'd be losing tons of money as everyone would be asking for warranty repairs when the engines and trannys start going at around 40k miles!! LOL
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    quote zodiac2004-"I believe you bought an extended warranty with your HCH. There is also the other person (molokai ??) who is proud of the fact he bought one with his Prius. Why buy it? A Civic or Camry certainly doesn't need one. Actions speak louder than words. You bought the warranty simply for one reason - fear of the unknown."-end quote

    Correct AMIGO - but your REASON is WRONG !! I have bought an extended warranty for every new or used car I have purchased since 1996. I don't have $1000 lying around unused in a bank account ready for every little "over 36,000 mile" or "over 60,000 mile" breakdown that ALL CARS have. Hybrid has nothing to do with it. My 1992 Infiniti Q45 kept losing fuel injectors at $600 a pop. My 1997 Suburban lost an A/C compressor at about 70,000 miles - $1400 out of my pocket. I learned of the wisdom of extended warranties the HARD WAY, and I have learned the lesson.

    Naïveté comes from lack of education. I am not lacking in education of about car values and/or understanding of the US car market and it's history.

    And the "shade tree mechanic" thing is a tired argument too. All modern cars are complex and almost all require a computer in the mechanics shop which can interface with the car. Hybrids are not alone in this area. Saying "I'm not buying a hybrid because mechanic Joe Schmo cannot work on it" is a ridiculous way to go about life.
  • john500john500 Posts: 409
    Can't argue with you there. Hybrid technology does appear to significantly improve fuel economy. However, I think a better start would have been to make cars lighter (such as is done in Europe currently). Look at the sub-compact cars available right now in Europe. They all get 50+ mpg highway. Why not start with one of those cars and then use hybrid technology to try for 70 or 80 mpg instead of trying to get a 10 ton tank to get 25 mpg?
  • frodobfrodob Posts: 8
    The very fact that you are stuck with repair at the dealer after the warranty is up is a big turn off for me. Toyota & Honda are not known for being gracious after the 36k miles is up.

    The items that you "need" to go to the dealer for are covered by quite a bit more than a 36k warranty.

    And I wouldn't put much stock in ebay sales as some kind of benchmark. A handful of sales nation-wide is nothing. There are a number of sources (NADA,KBB, etc) with thousands of sales that support the fact that the hybrid retails for a couple thousand over the EX. In the DC area, this is not just the price they are "hoping to get". There are several listed in this range.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAPosts: 6,059
    First thing to realize here is that you have to be careful to NOT let things escalate and get personal. A lot of folks are taking the approach that they can "prove" something to others who may disagree with them. And when they don't "come around", things start to get a little more heated and personal. Everyone REALLY needs to avoid maiking comments about each other. It doesn't take much for these things to spin out of control.

    Trust me on this one. The other guys is going to come around to agreeing with your viewpoint just about the same time that you say, "Gee... I was wrong, YOU'RE right!", no matter how many times you repeat your points and no matter how many zingers you throw in at them.

    This topic is not about whether or not folks should buy hybrids. Let's stick to the topic of paying more than MSRP and values for used hybrids. That's plenty to keep us busy in this one.

    So take a couple of deep breaths while I sort out the off topic stuff here and then let's get this back on track.

    Thanks for your cooperation and participation.

    MODERATOR
    Need some roadside assistance? pf_flyer@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.
    Share your vehicle reviews

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,158
    I'm glad you popped in. What is your take on the Used car TMV that Edmund's posts here on this sight? Is it based on actual sales or historic data for different brands?
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAPosts: 6,059
    Actually, I think TMV is a fascinating "process". There's literally a group of PHD's that take the raw sales data, stir it all up and come up with the TMV pricing. It's not simply a compilation and averaging of sales in your area. Being a math geek, i would LOVE to sit down with these folks and get into the mathematical models and all that. But as far as my take on TMV goes, I find it to be a pretty accurate picture of what's happening in the market.

    Check out the Learn More About TMV pages if you want a little more insight. :) (hybrid pun alert)

    MODERATOR
    Need some roadside assistance? pf_flyer@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.
    Share your vehicle reviews

  • mirthmirth Posts: 1,212
    Asked Terry at RWTIV's for his opinion, being in the "trenches" (or is that sandtraps?). Sounds like hybrid resale is going well:

    ..... Right now they are strong in the market, kinda like a big fish in a small pond .....

    And some people "really" feel they will save big money, and some will ... -if- they drive 25/45k a year and then keep it 7/8 years ..... but trading in a 2 year old Caddy or a Bimmer that gets 25mpg for a vehicle that gets 35mpg is kinda nutty if they drive 8/12k a year and then drop-in the $5,0/$6,000 of negative "eckity" ... but these are usually the same folks that have refi'd their home 3 times in the last 2 years and think their saving money ..l.o.l.....

    The reason why you see alot of hybrids for sale is -- comfort and size .... you take most drivers out of a Fat Daddy ride and drop them into a small hybrid and I will guarantee in 6 months or less you will see him sneaking around the lots looking at M45's, TL's, CTS's, etc, etc ........ hey, mine is not to reason "why" .. mine is to do or - aah, get paid for it ..........

    To answer your question - example only .... the 05 Ford Escape XLT 4x4 "Hybrid" is doing ..... drum roll please .... in and around the $25/$26 range at the auctions with 5/7k ------------------ Yikes.!
This discussion has been closed.