So are you vilifying Audi because they ONLY had sales of April sales of 10,000+, the majority of which are GASSERS? So what conclusions are you leaving out about Audi gassers? Your conclusion is convoluted at best. I am sure Toyota (hybrids) Prius would LOVE to post the percentage numbers the Audi shows on diesels.
What you must have missed is Audi is selling high dollar full sized SUVs because they offer a diesel option. Maybe you can name any other full sized SUV that is selling 50% more this year than last? I am saying that Audi is doing better than ever in the USA. One good reason is they offer diesel. Not in the vehicle I want yet. But maybe we will get the Q3 TDI next year. I would bet it would be a best seller. You also have to take into consideration the weak dollar makes these German built vehicles more expensive. Try to find a Q7 TDI under $70k. Not your average family car.
I was tempering Gary's statement about people not wanting diesels.
Audi having a good year does not "automatically change" the national car buyer's opinion on diesel, nor does it complete the assumption that attitudes have changed about diesel cars.
The only thing that will change that attidude, as I have said before, is super-clean diesel cars with little or no premium, offered by HyunToyMitFordGMSan.
Until they become as technologically advanced as the Germans it is unlikely. Honda tried and failed. Though it is their best selling models in the EU. So it paid off for them. Also Toyota sells a lot of diesels all over the World. Just not clean diesels. Though the same pollution ends up in the stratosphere to eventually drift back down over Arizona.
I would have to add, why would any of them wish to cut their own throats? Any of them get by very well not being anything close to mileage leaders??
So for example, if Honda offered a diesel Civic, it would literally overnight and literally revolutionize their whole product line, probably causing a LOAD of "chaos" that would not necessarily clearly benefit them. As good as Honda's are perceived in the US markets, they are struggling in European markets where diesels are fully 50% and growing. Keep also in mind that Honda has not gone through the US regulatory gauntlets and bru ha ha that many of the others have. Most currently noteable has been the Toyota Corp. The "beatings and torture" will assure a lengthy recovery period for Toyota. and a so called unfair advantage for GM, Chrysler, Ford, etc. Honda could NOT have failed to notice.
I know you know this but any to all of them do currentl offer diesels, just not in the American markets.
ruking1 says, "So for example if Honda offered a diesel Civic, it would literally overnight and literally revolutionize their whole product line, with no real "chaos" that would clearly benefit them."
They deal with it in other countries. They can deal with it here.
To me, a good reason why they do NOT want another protracted long battle/war on another front. In other words, they are already dealing with it; and (NO US market) Honda diesels are the result/s.
I am perplexed that you can/will not state and or SEE the obvious. A Civic that gets 38-42 mpg (yes I know the results I post are better than the majority of what other users report) can be considered an excellent price/performance ratio and is a major reason why Honda Civic has been CONSISTENTLY rated one of the TOP economy cars over multiple and many years.
Offering a diesel that under like circumstances will EASILY get 52-56 mpg would make a gasser Civic then a gas guzzler in comparison.
I think Honda spent a ton of money developing their very fine 4 cylinder diesel. It was more than clean enough for the EU. To be shot down by CARB when they use it with an automatic transmission, shows just how screwed up our regulations are.
A modern turbo diesel will always be more expensive than a non turbo charged gas engine. It is irrelevant as the resale makes up for it.
Indeed it did. By all reports, a hugely FINE effort !!
Indeed, and by a LARGE percentage.
One can get a quick and dirty by doing a comparison on say resale value of an 03 TDI Jetta vs an 03 1.8T Jetta. At the time ( 02/03 time frame) if I remember correctly, we were hemming and hawing over a $236. TDI premium.
I made a very similar post a couple of months ago, and the host ( Steve?) replied with the same 22 or so diesel models, as if to say .........What's the problem with diesel choices????
I replied that most diesel choices in the US are work trucks/vans.....as you did, ruking1..............
Stevie host, maybe you should apply for a transfer to the Prius Forum...........it suits you better, dude.......... :shades:
Didn't think about diesels stealing sales from gassers - it's a Civic sale either way. That has to enter into the equation why some car manufacturers aren't bringing diesel tech to the US passenger fleet. Too much risk for too little reward?
Consumer demand has to be there, so y'all are going to have to keep bragging about those 60 mpg tanks. :shades:
Yes really this information/stuff sort of dovetails together. While I think work trucks (the ones I "discounted") are really not the normal definition of passenger cars, they nevertheless are part of the 2% of the diesel fleet (258.4 M * 2%=) 5.168 M. Now this "discounted" segment is really app 75% of diesels or 3.876 M diesel vehicles, which defacto leaves app 1.292 M passenger diesel cars. Again that is (258.4M /1.292 M=) one half of 1 percent of the total passenger vehicle fleet.
In the air plane business, we used to call that kbal (canabalization is the real ugly term)
It sort of is like: why shoot yourself in the foot when almost everybody else is trying to do it for you???? When you do shoot yourself in the foot, it probably hurts a bit more, knowing it is a self inflicted GSW.
The problems are almost totally 180 degrees different in Europe. Since diesel is fully 50% they needed a distinctive and flagship diesel to trumpet an advantage. So in that sense for any 100 Honda customers in Europe they would lose 50 of them for not offering (if you will) a "proper" diesel.
Another downstream issue : they probably hoped to leverage a (their) diesel offering in the USA.
You both can say it. Does not make it so. There are better cars out there now than the Civic. Hyundai makes a good competitor as does Toyota. So to get back on top you need an edge. A diesel Civic would give Honda the edge they need to gain back market share. Same goes for Toyota. Mazda may just sneak in and give them all a run with their diesel. As could Subaru.
Gary, unclear what you are even talking about here??????
Let me 'splain what we were talking about slowly for you.
1. Ruking1 said "we get no Honda Civic diesel in USA because it would rob Civic GASSER sales. 2. I said "who cares? because a car sold is a car sold, for Honda, regardless of the engine type. 3. Steve agreed with me 4. Nothing I said or Steve said is wrong or can be logically challenged, because a car sold is a car sold is a car sold. 5. End of story.
Now, what were you saying about better cars than a Civic? Of course there are. But that means nothing within the context of what Ruking, Steve and I were talking about.
If Honda was to release a diesel Civic, it would end up very near the top of my short list of "next cars"; a list that doesn't currently include the name "Honda" in any way shape or form.
Said another way, if Honda was to sell me a diesel Civic, it wouldn't be because I opted for the diesel version over the gasser version.
I think if you use the 2010 VW sales that I posted (256,830 units for 2010 MY) in message #2595, some of the nuances can be implied or inferred. Again with a percentage INCREASE in year over year sales AND with 22% over all TDI sales, one could infer and /or assert that diesels did not canabalize many sales: IF sales increase were one of the goals. Or the alternative view, TDI's actually helped to INCREASE sales.
I think not. The same is happening (smaller scale) with Audi, BMW, MB). Now this is not to DISAGREE with your notion that we we need more diesel players. If I were any of these oems, for sure would be making BIG hay; ESPECIALLY with so few competitors in the games segments. In my own op/ed I think Honda is missing out on a grand opportunity by not putting a iCDI on the US markets.
1. Ruking1 said "we get no Honda Civic diesel in USA because it would rob Civic GASSER sales. 2. I said "who cares? because a car sold is a car sold, for Honda, regardless of the engine type. 3. Steve agreed with me
Yes it would steal Civic gasser sales, for the better mileage. It would also steal Corolla, Elantra, Jetta sales to give Honda an overall market gain. That is the name of the game. Just as Audi would not sell near as many of their $70k Q7 models if not for the Diesel option. People in that category have several other diesel options. Mercedes and BMW have large diesel SUVs. Which overall this year Mercedes and BMW are kicking Lexus butt. And they were doing it before the earthquake hurt Lexus MFG.
I guess I'm confused about what's going on in the minds of you folks.
Are you trying to say that their has been a NATIONWIDE ATTITUDE SHIFT toward diesel cars?
Because the evidence is slack to make THAT point.
I think all that's happening is that salespeople on the lot are convincing buyers who are ALREADY ON THE LOT ( in a time with NEAR-RECORD HIGH fuel prices ) that the diesel option we offer is a decent vehicle.
I don't think there has been a magical paradigm shift toward diesel cars all of a sudden.
Volkswagen's monopoly on affordable diesel passenger cars in the U.S. is about to end. Starting in late 2011, American buyers will have at least one fuel-efficient diesel to choose from at the Mazda dealer.
Mazda's gamble -- and diesel is still a large gamble in the U.S. -- rewards buyers with what should be an affordable, fuel-efficient, and entertaining car. The Sky-D also offers enthusiasts another option in the extremely limited diesel market. With such a compelling character, we hope Mazda's 2012 diesel can convince buyers -- and other automakers -- that diesel engines deserve a bigger role in America.
I don't think there has been a magical paradigm shift toward diesel cars all of a sudden.
It has hardly been fast or magical. Yes the sales force will have a slight impact. My guess from talking to the VW dealer here is people have a pent up desire for a diesel vehicle. Back in 2004-06 when You could not buy a diesel VW in CA, the dealers would buy used ones with 7500 miles and sell them for more than MSRP. Now that there are choices it is not quite the same.
You do not give websites like Edmunds the credit they are due. I get most of my information here first. I do not wander from car lot to car lot looking to see who is offering a diesel model. Over the last decade car sites have played a big role in the rise of hybrids and diesels. I first learned about the Prius here. Then went looking at Toyota dealers and found out when they would get their first shipment. When I first test drove them, no one was looking at the two they had on the lot. Advertising and word of mouth will sell more diesels also. I don't watch TV so do not know if VW pushes their diesel models.
My guess is in 5 years diesel cars will pass up hybrids. Toyota is struggling to stay number one in the World. They will have to offer diesels to avoid losing market share here to the likes of Mazda. VW will likely take over the number one spot in the World. The VW TDI is a big part of their sales. The US market is not the only place to sell cars.
Like you have said: no, the numbers do not indicated a "nationwide attitude shift." However, I am not sure what that means. Or the reality: it has multiple meanings and codes.
To whit, we have been opining about "better fuel mileage" for easily 40+ years that I know of. I bought a 1970 VW Beetle 1 year USED, with it getting a pretty radical 30-34 mpg at the time. A lot of cars @ that time were normal at 10-14 mpg. FF to 2011/2012; most (75%)of the passenger vehicle fleet REMAIN large cars. Now the SIZE does not bother me in the least. Fuel use, prices are at the highest they have ever been. The fuel mpg remains "low", with most cars NOT getting 30-34 mpg!?
However in VW's case, they are adding customers. In the case of 2010 MY, adding 22% of (increased) total production or 56,503 TDI units. Now how HAPPY those folks are they bought a diesel, ...I do not really know.
Now my personal attitudes might be an anomoly. The current situations might indeed be perfect storms for VW. They truly occupy a SMALL (less than 2.2%) niche market in the US. Overall, they are literally the 800# gorilla. They are second only to the currently BIGGER gorilla,... Toyota.
If VW did not offer diesels, I would not have gotten VW's. A lot of other posters have listed a plethora of reasons about VW's !!!!! Because they offer TDI's AND I have been sequentially happy (@like miles 03/09 MY's), I continue to get them.
Then there are those of us whom love turbochargers and diesels; making a Mazda6 TwinTurbo diesel with a 6-Speed manual transmission pretty much the perfect car for me (I'd like RWD too, but that ain't likely to happen).
Yes to me the manual transmission (6 speed) ties a few of these Edmunds threads together. In my humble opinion/editorial, the 5/6 speed manual is THE perfect match for a TDI. This is a minority opinion, given the fact the passenger vehicle population are 80% automatic transmissions, and probably growing.
What percentage of U.S. car buyers are Edmunds forum readers?
My guess would be less than 10%. Edmunds might have some firm numbers on that - I'd be interested in knowing the real number.
The general public is still scared of diesel cars. It took a long time for Hybrids to get a decent audience. And right now, when they look at the higher diesel fuel prices, they still have a reason to say no to diesels.
I counter your "diesels will pass hybrids in five years" with this addendum:
1. Will not happen if only Audi, MB, VW offer diesels. 2. Will take longer in the USA because hybrids have a decently large lead.
1. Will not happen if only Audi, MB, VW offer diesels. 2. Will take longer in the USA because hybrids have a decently large lead.
I agree with point One. On point two you have to look at the percentages of those offering the diesel option. When a model with both gas and diesel swells to 50% or more in just 3-4 years you have to say wow, if you are an accountant with that automaker. To keep it in perspective what percentage of Camry sales are the Camry Hybrids? If it was anywhere near 50%, which it is not even 10%, I would agree with you. As a percentage after a decade the hybrids are slow movers. Even this last month shows poorly for models like the Prius. And it is not a result of the earthquake. There is still plenty of supply sitting at the dealerships. The new Lexus CT being the exception. You can get one them if your are willing to pay $38k for a $32k car.
There was also a news item in the local rag SJMN, about the expiration of app 65,000 commute decals (allows singles (driver) for Prius/Civic hybrids to drive in a 2 + commuter lane. I wonder how this will affect Prius sales? Many folks cite the major reason for the Prius choice was the commute sticker option. Some folks say it can knock 20-40 min per day off a R/T commute.
Point one is a given. However there is a quandry as to what designs will be "franchised" (if you will) for the other oem's diesel engine offerings? I 3, I4 , I6, V6, V8, V10, etc. This by itself is HUGE. The logistical system is literally devoid.
Point two can only be describe as a slow news day at the sluggish snail races. However when you look at hybrids WW markets, Toyota bragged not too long ago about the Prius (hybrid) hitting 2 M units. While certainly an achievement, when you look at a European market of 270.5 M cars with upwards of 50% diesel , what can you say about 135.25 M to 2 M ? (67.625 to one) On the home front what are we going to say (from legislative and regulatory point of view) to TDI Passats being produced/assembled in Chattanogga, TN?
This also greatly impacts our consumer goods transported by truck. Truckers can fill up in AZ and pay 42 cents per gallon less in diesel tax. Which has a negative impact on CA economy. Stupid CA legislators.
How does a high tax on diesel fuel indicate "Anti diesel car?"
Doesn't it more likely merely mean "Truckers are REQUIRED spend a TON of money on fuel - let's tax them as an easy source of tax revenue" ????
Is a tax that most diesel car shoppers don't even KNOW about really going to lower the sales of diesel cars? I think we all know the answer to THAT one.
Yes it impacts our trucking costs. It is also a deterrent to buying a diesel vehicle when diesel costs are higher than gas. As I pointed out it is bad public policy in many ways. It does not hurt cross country truckers as they can fill in AZ and do what needs to be done in CA and get back to cheaper fuel. It only hurts our economy. If we taxed diesel on the US average, diesel would be cheaper than RUG in CA.
Five other states almost tax as high as CALI.
I don't see 10 cents per gallon as almost the same. I know you hate the truth. CARB and its cronies in Sacramento HATE Diesel cars. You have made no viable argument that refutes that. Only your opinion. The facts are much of the legislation against diesel in CA was put together by a PHD that falsified his degree.
CARB – Diesel Emissions Overestimated 340%
So, here’s how good the “science” behind California’s Global Warming Law AB32 probably is. The California Air Resources Board has beyond screwed-up their diesel regulations. Based upon “grossly miscalculated pollution levels” of only 340% over reality, which was used to create onerous regulations. Yes, you read right, 340%. Was this stupidity? Gross negligence? Gross incompetence? Outright fraud? All of the aforementioned? Read and decide for yourself.
Do they care about the people and businesses of California? Probably not. They appear to love spending other people’s money on non-existent problems because it’s really all about control and forcing you to live their greentard lifestyle, while increasing the size of their bureaucracy, regardless if it’s based in reality or not.
The funny thing is the SF C has a WAY left of center political bent and agenda. So for them to print something like this about democratically controlled CA state political appointees is at the ver least, interesting.
On the "trenches level" it is not like they do not have the data on the app 24 M vehicles of which app one half of one percent are diesel passenger cars (120,000 units) My 2003 TDI is REQUIRED to undergo a smog inspections on more frequent cycles than gassers. CA state acknowledges gassers causes the majority pollution. Majority as in 98+ percent. The results and data are literally INSTANTLY upload to the DMV's data base. If I get so much as a tire monitor sensor malfunction, the TDI smog test is FAILED.
IF they did make a "mistake" they obviously still are of the attitude "damned the torpedoes FULL steam ahead".
Indeed, they didn't even HAVE to admit a mistake, just say that a "further" review caused them to make "ADJUSTMENTS". So indeed it is not just an "opinion". However, that board is OF the opinion that diesel is bad no matter the evidences to the contrary.
While filling my PU at Shell a lady in a VW Sportswagen TDI pulls in to fill up. I asked her how she likes it. I love it she told me. Traded a Camry that was fine. Just did not ride or handle as well as the VW. So far she is averaging 42 MPG overall. She commutes to San Diego from our little town about 31 miles each way. She had a bike rack on top with two Mt bikes. Said the bikes did not seem to make much difference in mileage. That kind of surprised me. I really like that model. If it had just a bit more ground clearance I would buy one. Maybe the Audi Q3 TDI will be here soon. I can always dream about it.
A classic off-roader is entering its final phase: as the model designation suggests, Mercedes-Benz is producing the last edition of the short wheelbase Station Wagon in the successful G-Class with the special "BA3 Final Edition" model. Two variants will be available: in the G 350 BlueTEC a 6-cylinder diesel engine with the very latest BlueTEC emissions control, 155 kW (211 hp) and 540 newton metres for great pulling power both on and off the road. In the G 500 a powerful 5.5-litre V8 petrol engine with 285 kW (388 hp) and 530 newton metres effortlessly performs the same function.
Two choices. Could be the last vehicle I ever buy, who knows. I believe it will be available for European delivery. Take a month or two touring the EU and have it shipped home. Has to get better mileage than my Sequoia. And a lot classier ride.
"Just how hard is it to develop a new engine? And not just any engine, but a new clean diesel? Well, if you're Cummins, it means a $30 million small, clean diesel program that has $15 million in DOE funding. The program is set to last until 2014."
Quite the power house. 220 hp/380 ft # with a 350# ft test mule is very promising. It seems to take aim @ the VW V6 225/406 ft #'s Touareg platform's 19/28 mpg. Range of mpg is 19 to 22% percent better than the gasser.
The Titan seems rather large for that engine. The mileage looks good and they should sell very well. I would say most Titan owners are lucky to get 15 MPG combined. I know my Frontier stays in the 17 MPG range combined. Now if Cummins will offer that engine in an SUV I am all over it.
Comments
We're still talking only 10,000 or so TOTAL SALES in April across their ENTIRE LINE, with far less than half of that number being diesels.
What this proves is that people are looking at higher-mileage vehicles, in ANY format, with the current gas price situation.
I was tempering Gary's statement about people not wanting diesels.
Audi having a good year does not "automatically change" the national car buyer's opinion on diesel, nor does it complete the assumption that attitudes have changed about diesel cars.
The only thing that will change that attidude, as I have said before, is super-clean diesel cars with little or no premium, offered by HyunToyMitFordGMSan.
Until they become as technologically advanced as the Germans it is unlikely. Honda tried and failed. Though it is their best selling models in the EU. So it paid off for them. Also Toyota sells a lot of diesels all over the World. Just not clean diesels. Though the same pollution ends up in the stratosphere to eventually drift back down over Arizona.
So for example, if Honda offered a diesel Civic, it would literally overnight and literally revolutionize their whole product line, probably causing a LOAD of "chaos" that would not necessarily clearly benefit them. As good as Honda's are perceived in the US markets, they are struggling in European markets where diesels are fully 50% and growing. Keep also in mind that Honda has not gone through the US regulatory gauntlets and bru ha ha that many of the others have. Most currently noteable has been the Toyota Corp. The "beatings and torture" will assure a lengthy recovery period for Toyota. and a so called unfair advantage for GM, Chrysler, Ford, etc. Honda could NOT have failed to notice.
I know you know this but any to all of them do currentl offer diesels, just not in the American markets.
They deal with it in other countries. They can deal with it here.
I am perplexed that you can/will not state and or SEE the obvious. A Civic that gets 38-42 mpg (yes I know the results I post are better than the majority of what other users report) can be considered an excellent price/performance ratio and is a major reason why Honda Civic has been CONSISTENTLY rated one of the TOP economy cars over multiple and many years.
Offering a diesel that under like circumstances will EASILY get 52-56 mpg would make a gasser Civic then a gas guzzler in comparison.
So they start selling diesel Civics to replace the lost sales of the gassers...
Where's their problem?
These scenarios are the same:
100% Gassers and 0% Diesels =
=
=
=
20% Gassers and 80% Diesels.
Same. Same. Same. No Diff. Same.
A modern turbo diesel will always be more expensive than a non turbo charged gas engine. It is irrelevant as the resale makes up for it.
Indeed, and by a LARGE percentage.
One can get a quick and dirty by doing a comparison on say resale value of an 03 TDI Jetta vs an 03 1.8T Jetta. At the time ( 02/03 time frame) if I remember correctly, we were hemming and hawing over a $236. TDI premium.
I made a very similar post a couple of months ago, and the host ( Steve?) replied with the same 22 or so diesel models, as if to say .........What's the problem with diesel choices????
I replied that most diesel choices in the US are work trucks/vans.....as you did, ruking1..............
Stevie host, maybe you should apply for a transfer to the Prius Forum...........it suits you better, dude.......... :shades:
Consumer demand has to be there, so y'all are going to have to keep bragging about those 60 mpg tanks. :shades:
(and yeah, I'm a Prius fan)
Exactly my point in Post 2605.
It sort of is like: why shoot yourself in the foot when almost everybody else is trying to do it for you???? When you do shoot yourself in the foot, it probably hurts a bit more, knowing it is a self inflicted GSW.
The problems are almost totally 180 degrees different in Europe. Since diesel is fully 50% they needed a distinctive and flagship diesel to trumpet an advantage. So in that sense for any 100 Honda customers in Europe they would lose 50 of them for not offering (if you will) a "proper" diesel.
Another downstream issue : they probably hoped to leverage a (their) diesel offering in the USA.
Exactly my point in Post 2605.
You both can say it. Does not make it so. There are better cars out there now than the Civic. Hyundai makes a good competitor as does Toyota. So to get back on top you need an edge. A diesel Civic would give Honda the edge they need to gain back market share. Same goes for Toyota. Mazda may just sneak in and give them all a run with their diesel. As could Subaru.
Let me 'splain what we were talking about slowly for you.
1. Ruking1 said "we get no Honda Civic diesel in USA because it would rob Civic GASSER sales.
2. I said "who cares? because a car sold is a car sold, for Honda, regardless of the engine type.
3. Steve agreed with me
4. Nothing I said or Steve said is wrong or can be logically challenged, because a car sold is a car sold is a car sold.
5. End of story.
Now, what were you saying about better cars than a Civic? Of course there are. But that means nothing within the context of what Ruking, Steve and I were talking about.
But then again, if gas prices double... (again).
If Honda was to release a diesel Civic, it would end up very near the top of my short list of "next cars"; a list that doesn't currently include the name "Honda" in any way shape or form.
Said another way, if Honda was to sell me a diesel Civic, it wouldn't be because I opted for the diesel version over the gasser version.
When they have sales jumps, the TDIs are ALWAYS involved.
That's why diesel needs more players.
2012 Volkswagen Beetle
2. I said "who cares? because a car sold is a car sold, for Honda, regardless of the engine type.
3. Steve agreed with me
Yes it would steal Civic gasser sales, for the better mileage. It would also steal Corolla, Elantra, Jetta sales to give Honda an overall market gain. That is the name of the game. Just as Audi would not sell near as many of their $70k Q7 models if not for the Diesel option. People in that category have several other diesel options. Mercedes and BMW have large diesel SUVs. Which overall this year Mercedes and BMW are kicking Lexus butt. And they were doing it before the earthquake hurt Lexus MFG.
Are you trying to say that their has been a NATIONWIDE ATTITUDE SHIFT toward diesel cars?
Because the evidence is slack to make THAT point.
I think all that's happening is that salespeople on the lot are convincing buyers who are ALREADY ON THE LOT ( in a time with NEAR-RECORD HIGH fuel prices ) that the diesel option we offer is a decent vehicle.
I don't think there has been a magical paradigm shift toward diesel cars all of a sudden.
Mazda's gamble -- and diesel is still a large gamble in the U.S. -- rewards buyers with what should be an affordable, fuel-efficient, and entertaining car. The Sky-D also offers enthusiasts another option in the extremely limited diesel market. With such a compelling character, we hope Mazda's 2012 diesel can convince buyers -- and other automakers -- that diesel engines deserve a bigger role in America.
173 hp and a massive 310 lb-ft of torque
It has hardly been fast or magical. Yes the sales force will have a slight impact. My guess from talking to the VW dealer here is people have a pent up desire for a diesel vehicle. Back in 2004-06 when You could not buy a diesel VW in CA, the dealers would buy used ones with 7500 miles and sell them for more than MSRP. Now that there are choices it is not quite the same.
You do not give websites like Edmunds the credit they are due. I get most of my information here first. I do not wander from car lot to car lot looking to see who is offering a diesel model. Over the last decade car sites have played a big role in the rise of hybrids and diesels. I first learned about the Prius here. Then went looking at Toyota dealers and found out when they would get their first shipment. When I first test drove them, no one was looking at the two they had on the lot. Advertising and word of mouth will sell more diesels also. I don't watch TV so do not know if VW pushes their diesel models.
My guess is in 5 years diesel cars will pass up hybrids. Toyota is struggling to stay number one in the World. They will have to offer diesels to avoid losing market share here to the likes of Mazda. VW will likely take over the number one spot in the World. The VW TDI is a big part of their sales. The US market is not the only place to sell cars.
To whit, we have been opining about "better fuel mileage" for easily 40+ years that I know of. I bought a 1970 VW Beetle 1 year USED, with it getting a pretty radical 30-34 mpg at the time. A lot of cars @ that time were normal at 10-14 mpg. FF to 2011/2012; most (75%)of the passenger vehicle fleet REMAIN large cars. Now the SIZE does not bother me in the least. Fuel use, prices are at the highest they have ever been. The fuel mpg remains "low", with most cars NOT getting 30-34 mpg!?
However in VW's case, they are adding customers. In the case of 2010 MY, adding 22% of (increased) total production or 56,503 TDI units. Now how HAPPY those folks are they bought a diesel, ...I do not really know.
Now my personal attitudes might be an anomoly. The current situations might indeed be perfect storms for VW. They truly occupy a SMALL (less than 2.2%) niche market in the US. Overall, they are literally the 800# gorilla. They are second only to the currently BIGGER gorilla,... Toyota.
If VW did not offer diesels, I would not have gotten VW's. A lot of other posters have listed a plethora of reasons about VW's !!!!! Because they offer TDI's AND I have been sequentially happy (@like miles 03/09 MY's), I continue to get them.
My guess would be less than 10%. Edmunds might have some firm numbers on that - I'd be interested in knowing the real number.
The general public is still scared of diesel cars. It took a long time for Hybrids to get a decent audience. And right now, when they look at the higher diesel fuel prices, they still have a reason to say no to diesels.
I counter your "diesels will pass hybrids in five years" with this addendum:
1. Will not happen if only Audi, MB, VW offer diesels.
2. Will take longer in the USA because hybrids have a decently large lead.
2. Will take longer in the USA because hybrids have a decently large lead.
I agree with point One. On point two you have to look at the percentages of those offering the diesel option. When a model with both gas and diesel swells to 50% or more in just 3-4 years you have to say wow, if you are an accountant with that automaker. To keep it in perspective what percentage of Camry sales are the Camry Hybrids? If it was anywhere near 50%, which it is not even 10%, I would agree with you. As a percentage after a decade the hybrids are slow movers. Even this last month shows poorly for models like the Prius. And it is not a result of the earthquake. There is still plenty of supply sitting at the dealerships. The new Lexus CT being the exception. You can get one them if your are willing to pay $38k for a $32k car.
http://www.edmunds.com/inventory/vin.html?radius=500&zip=91901&make=Lexus&sub=CT- - %20200h&locationId=20016&franchiseId=63885&inventoryId=16121244&year=2011&trim=&- - extcolor=&intcolor=&enginetype=&transmission=&drivetrain=&fueltype=
Point one is a given. However there is a quandry as to what designs will be "franchised" (if you will) for the other oem's diesel engine offerings? I 3, I4 , I6, V6, V8, V10, etc. This by itself is HUGE. The logistical system is literally devoid.
Point two can only be describe as a slow news day at the sluggish snail races. However when you look at hybrids WW markets, Toyota bragged not too long ago about the Prius (hybrid) hitting 2 M units. While certainly an achievement, when you look at a European market of 270.5 M cars with upwards of 50% diesel , what can you say about 135.25 M to 2 M ? (67.625 to one) On the home front what are we going to say (from legislative and regulatory point of view) to TDI Passats being produced/assembled in Chattanogga, TN?
http://www.api.org/statistics/fueltaxes/upload/May2011%20gasoline%20and%20diesel- %20summary%20pages.pdf
This also greatly impacts our consumer goods transported by truck. Truckers can fill up in AZ and pay 42 cents per gallon less in diesel tax. Which has a negative impact on CA economy. Stupid CA legislators.
Doesn't it more likely merely mean "Truckers are REQUIRED spend a TON of money on fuel - let's tax them as an easy source of tax revenue" ????
Is a tax that most diesel car shoppers don't even KNOW about really going to lower the sales of diesel cars? I think we all know the answer to THAT one.
Five other states almost tax as high as CALI.
Five other states almost tax as high as CALI.
I don't see 10 cents per gallon as almost the same. I know you hate the truth. CARB and its cronies in Sacramento HATE Diesel cars. You have made no viable argument that refutes that. Only your opinion. The facts are much of the legislation against diesel in CA was put together by a PHD that falsified his degree.
CARB – Diesel Emissions Overestimated 340%
So, here’s how good the “science” behind California’s Global Warming Law AB32 probably is. The California Air Resources Board has beyond screwed-up their diesel regulations. Based upon “grossly miscalculated pollution levels” of only 340% over reality, which was used to create onerous regulations. Yes, you read right, 340%. Was this stupidity? Gross negligence? Gross incompetence? Outright fraud? All of the aforementioned? Read and decide for yourself.
Do they care about the people and businesses of California? Probably not. They appear to love spending other people’s money on non-existent problems because it’s really all about control and forcing you to live their greentard lifestyle, while increasing the size of their bureaucracy, regardless if it’s based in reality or not.
http://co2insanity.com/2010/10/07/carb-diesel-emissions-overestimated-340/
On the "trenches level" it is not like they do not have the data on the app 24 M vehicles of which app one half of one percent are diesel passenger cars (120,000 units) My 2003 TDI is REQUIRED to undergo a smog inspections on more frequent cycles than gassers. CA state acknowledges gassers causes the majority pollution. Majority as in 98+ percent. The results and data are literally INSTANTLY upload to the DMV's data base. If I get so much as a tire monitor sensor malfunction, the TDI smog test is FAILED.
I guess we cancel one another out there, Amigo. You ain't got not proof neither - just your opinion.
We already talked about that one mistaken data piece before - that Blog piece is 7 months old.
Just because they use flawed data does not mean they were intentionally making anti-diesel decisions. It just means they made a stupid mistake.
The goal: clean air. They obviously want that. And that means they DO CARE about the people of CALI.
Are they perfect? No - but is any guvmint entity? No.
Indeed, they didn't even HAVE to admit a mistake, just say that a "further" review caused them to make "ADJUSTMENTS". So indeed it is not just an "opinion". However, that board is OF the opinion that diesel is bad no matter the evidences to the contrary.
Two choices. Could be the last vehicle I ever buy, who knows. I believe it will be available for European delivery. Take a month or two touring the EU and have it shipped home. Has to get better mileage than my Sequoia. And a lot classier ride.
"Just how hard is it to develop a new engine? And not just any engine, but a new clean diesel? Well, if you're Cummins, it means a $30 million small, clean diesel program that has $15 million in DOE funding. The program is set to last until 2014."
2014 Nissan Titan Getting Four-Cylinder Diesel Thanks to Cummins, Department of Energy (Straightline)