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So, like a lot of other industries, more computer power will mean fewer humans will be needed. The computer will tell the tech what component needs to be pulled and sent back to the central depository for recycling and after the part is replaced, the computer will check the tech's work.
After that model fails, robotics will do the work.
Meanwhile if repair prices rise, people will just switch to leasing and zipcars and Uber rides.
As used cars of course!
Right now cars are assembled to speed up the lines with little regard for maintenance and repair (check out the location of the new Mustang dipstick). That's nuts - at some point someone (Tesla?) will figure out that it's smarter to make it all modular and "plug and play".
Ten years ago people hardwired their houses with Cat 5 to future proof them. Now it's all wireless. Got an intermittent battery problem? It's nuts to have to put a car up on a lift and check 40 odd grounds for a good connection. If you can't get rid of all the wiring, at least have the ECU tell you where the bad ground is.
Why isn't your car sending performance data back home? Your fridge does it (got milk?) - your toilet does it (BP right to your doc's office). Why do you have to have an OBD port? That info should be sent to your phone or your nav screen.
More EVs will solve a lot of maintenance issues too.
Cars are ready for a sea-change. Repair techs won't be left behind so much as they won't even be a cog in the wheel anymore.
Having miles of wiring in a car that's subjected to weather extremes, dirt and vibration doesn't make a lot of sense anyway. (Neither does carrying around 100 gallons of highly combustible fluid in traffic!).
Percentage of Households Without a Car in USA
Obviously if you are an auto tech, you want to a) specialize so as to master a certain marque and b) move to the 'burbs.
And if you are an owner of a new car, you probably want to bail out of it right after the warranty, if it's loaded up with all the conceivable gadgetry.
I can foresee the day when "out of warranty" will have the same impact financially as "salvage title".
With all of the dynamics in play the only thing that is certain is like isellhondas said, there is no reason for someone to become a technician. Dealership techs aren't being paid correctly for neither the diagnostics nor the repairs. Just look at the other threads about the failed repairs that are requiring multiple visits. For all of the consumer complaints nothing is being done to address the real problems.
BTW where did someone say that the consumers don't have a right to complain? Now maybe if they focused their objections on the parties that really deserve to feel the pressure instead of it being misdirected.
http://carbuying.jalopnik.com/you-can-buy-a-604-hp-mercedes-s65-amg-for-the-price-of-1685564931
This guy likes to point out how much used car you can get for new car money ... I've seen several different articles from him the past few months.
Love to point him to the Edmunds experience with a similar MB.
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2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
Worth the read.
The express service seems to be the wave of the future - brakes and oil, fine. Anything else (aka a "major" issue) will get towed (or unplugged) and sent to a central rehab joint.
Good link, liked the "meltdown" story and the flat rate discussion in there. The grease money one too; bet that happens a lot when kids want to fix up a beater and their mom yells at them to get better grades.
There is both good and bad in the "meltdown" story. The significance of 61% of the business now being fleet work will be lost on most people. Think about one of the other threads about the Toyota transmission problem and the fact that the dealer the O.P. uses will only replace the unit instead of repair it. Fleet work won't support a shop and techs that can repair major assemblies. What's worse is fleets usually won't keep vehicles long enough for the techs to gain the kinds of technical skills that lead to being efficient at diagnostics and the more complex repair routines. It can be a good business plan to a point, but has a limited scope and it ends up being limited to chasing the same piece of pie that everyone else is competing for and that usually means price wars where no one eventually wins.
Meanwhile, how come there's not a Lube & Latte here?
But if OnStar called me a mile from the shop saying the hydraulic pressure in my brake lines was low, I could pull over and avoid t-boning the semi at the next intersection.
Guess which scenario will get on the six o'clock news?
If you want to "assume" that you are referring to a brake system uses a pressurized accumulator for assist (such as hydroboost) why does that not fit your alleged scenario either?
Besides, aren't brake jobs supposed to be a thing of the past too?
Not in my driveway.
I don't see how techs can keep up much longer. Things are changing too fast. Not only do you have to learn the new technology, but you have to remember the old.
@thecardoc3, I'm sure you can come up with a better scenario than mine, but if the tech screws up and I have a wreck, it'll make the news, just like the hacker story. If the telematics catch the issue before I drive off the lot, it's a non-story.
FYI. There is no pressure in the brake system at rest. There would be nothing for the telematics to detect until you apply the brakes. The hydroboost systems turn the warning light on when the system falls below 60% normal system pressure. However they usually don't code unless there is insufficient pressure increase in the accumulator after a given amount of pump run time. In the event the system would generate a code you would get your phone call and you wouldn't have a loss of the brakes, you would only have a loss or reduction of assist. So then while you are talking on the phone and approaching the intersection, your going to have to push on the brake pedal with a lot more effort than usual to stop the car.
Meanwhile the shop manager will also be alerted by the app and will be going "oh crap". And they'll calling their law firm or insurance agent while prepping the courtesy tow
I'm not a mechanic so when I pay a tech to fix my car, I expect to move on down the road.
If the "telematics" can't self-repair my car, the least it can do is alert me to a problem. Basically it's just going to be an extension of existing gauges and idiot lights, but with some coding behind it.
I'm trying to decide whether to follow this advice and trade this car in when my warranty expires at the end of December. Probably the car has a lot of life left in it, but on the other hand there's a lot that can go wrong that would add up quickly once I'm out of warranty. Would also enjoy something new, even though I still really like the car.
My question seems somewhat answered by the above from Shiftright, but does anyone have any additional thoughts?
Trade in value for my car is probably about $10k or so now. Given my positive experiences with three Hondas, I'm almost certainly going to go with Honda or Acura again. The least expensive route would be to get a base Accord LX, which already has a lot of the stuff on my top of the line from 7 years ago—bluetooth, dual zone climate, alloy wheels, etc. Could probably get one of those for c. 20k flat, or with TTL 22k. With my trade in that would mean a new car with many years of life for just 12k out of pocket. But I'm also tempted by a loaded Accord, or maybe even an Acura ILX or TLX....
Do you want an example of what computer diagnostics and the limits of telematics can really do in cars over the last decade? You have great examples in every thread about problems that are described in threads like this one.
http://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/14979/chevrolet/traverse/chevy-traverse-stabilitrak-traction-control-problems#latest and this one http://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/13406/chevrolet/impala/chevy-impala-reduced-engine-power-message#latest Now will they be better in the future? Well one would expect that to be the case but how far in the future are we really talking? Many of those cars have OnStar and those threads do a good job of proving that isn't enough. Besides there is always going to be one problem that no computer self diagnostic system can overcome and that is a loss of communication between the modules in the car. The system diagnostics can be very helpful and give some direction provided at least some modules will communicate on the data bus, but they will be no help at all if the bus is completely down and now it will be 100% on the skills and knowledge of the technician who without a real culture change inside the trade and support on the outside you have no reason to believe you will be able to find any.
I think redundancy on that level will be cheap and easy to implement. And I still think self repair will happen too. For your busted bus, think self replication. (preposterousuniverse.com)
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
The majority of the reports for unintended acceleration were/are driver error, misapplication of the pedals. A small number were in fact floor mat issues and that was something that wasn't new. We have found the occasions of pedal obstruction for as long as I can recall. From there it has been proven that a lot of the transient failures that we see in sensors, computer modules, and in some actuators today beyond the normal wear and tear or wiring issues are the result of the growth of tin whiskers.
What can make the diagnostics difficult if not impossible is even with the very small currents that most sensors operate under a whisker that grows and causes a connection will usually "fuse open" causing an non-repeatable failure. Meanwhile the length of time that the circuit was connected by the whisker can in fact be long enough to trigger a system response such as a limp in mode and yet still fall short of the criteria required to generate a trouble code. Then again just like so many of those posts in those threads a failure can occur and generate a code but that only says what test failed at that moment in time and not what actually happened sufficiently to guide someone through a repair. Part of the balancing act that engineers have to overcome is that they cannot have the system code for every little voltage drop or spike, doing that would cause nightmarish numbers of false trouble codes with no troubles found. Yet they cannot allow the circuit to be out of range for an extended period of time without risking other unintended results.
A computer cannot do anything more than; Measure the voltage on a given circuit and compare that to limits written into the software, AND, In some cases the computer can measure the current that is flowing into it or out of it on a given circuit and do the same comparison to the limits for that circuit as written into the software, AND. The engineers can also write programs into the software to allow other sensor inputs to be used as rationality or performance checks against a given circuit (system) but that is the limits of what can be done. The tests that the computer runs result in a trouble code when a test fails and it is a technicians job to understand exactly how the computer tests that circuit and perform the same tests that the computer does in order to prove why the computer made the decision that it did if possible. It's important to understand that the computer cannot circuit test beyond its connector and in a lot of cases the actual testing point could be well inside of the module behind the connector. That being said, tin whisker growth inside the computer module especially if random can be one of the most difficult things to prove.
Here's one example of a way to "self repair" a tin whisker issue. Zap it! (softsolder.com)