Edmunds Members - Cars and Conversations (Archived)

stickguy

I don’t think they can keep it up that long (June).

oldfarmer50

graphicguy said:

oldfarmer50 said:

graphicguy said:

Michaell said:

@graphicguy - that is an amazing deal, and I'm very happy for you. About as good an outcome as could be expected.

Congrats on making it to the next phase in your life; perhaps you'll join @oldfarmer50 and @Sandman6472 in taking a part time job shuttling rental cars around.

Michaell.....funny you should mention that. I’ve actually thought of starting my own LLC and offer to shuttle cars from/to the dealerships in the area.

Most dealerships have in house staff who do that. Usually on call so they don’t have to pay benefits. Some of our guys do that to fill out the week.

Unless you drive a car carrier............

I wonder if I could get a few retirees to do this with me? We could form our own company to do the transfers and be on call for any dealership. Worth pursuing, OF?

Might be. If you could bond and insure your drivers it would be worth it to the dealers to avoid that liability. I remember a long time ago one of the car salesmen here told a story of a dealership transporter who was so old and decrepit that he wrecked the car he was delivering to the dealer and then wrecked the one he swapped on the way back.

oldfarmer50

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

kyfdx

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

I don't think prices are going to drop that fast for new cars. The dealer profit margin is fixed, and unless the manufacturer adds incentives, the dealer can't really sell for less. They'll drop, just maybe less than you think.

Used cars are going to be a crapshoot. With no auctions to set prices, dealers may be at sea. Though, this is one area where they have more flexibility, and may have fire sales to keep the doors open.

tjc78

stickguy said:

I don’t think they can keep it up that long (June).

Agreed, this just can’t go on much past May 1

Michaell

kyfdx said:

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

I don't think prices are going to drop that fast for new cars. The dealer profit margin is fixed, and unless the manufacturer adds incentives, the dealer can't really sell for less. They'll drop, just maybe less than you think.

Used cars are going to be a crapshoot. With no auctions to set prices, dealers may be at sea. Though, this is one area where they have more flexibility, and may have fire sales to keep the doors open.

Lose money on every transaction, just make up for it in volume?

:laughing:

suydam

tjc78 said:

stickguy said:

I don’t think they can keep it up that long (June).

Agreed, this just can’t go on much past May 1

I don’t think we’ll have a choice. The virus is driving our timeline, not us.

driver100

Sometimes it is better to liquidate at a loss and get some cash in hand...to pay off debts. So possible manufacturers will reduce prices for the dealers.

Just an opinion....this recession seems different than most. Big loss of jobs and cut backs, people can't pay their mortgage or rent, people aren't driving much.....it is possible new and used car sales will fall off.

They interviewed a garage owner in todays newspaper....garages are supposed to be recession proof, he says business is off by a lot........people have other concerns, and aren't driving.

oldfarmer50

Now was this fintail or 28firefighter? I knew one of us would snap.😳🤯😜

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/2020-03-31-cops-discover-dog-behind-the-wheel-after-high-speed-chase-i-wish-i-could-make-this-up-23966538.html

fintail

I think that was 28ff, I don't have a dog. Sounds better than Toonces the Driving Cat anyway. I've seen dogs I think could drive better than some locals.

Regarding the economy, I have some expectation of stimulus/bailout part II plans maybe in the next 6 weeks or so. While the current plan is better than nothing, I suspect a lot more is going to be needed for people and businesses both.

oldfarmer50

Michaell said:

kyfdx said:

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

I don't think prices are going to drop that fast for new cars. The dealer profit margin is fixed, and unless the manufacturer adds incentives, the dealer can't really sell for less. They'll drop, just maybe less than you think.

Used cars are going to be a crapshoot. With no auctions to set prices, dealers may be at sea. Though, this is one area where they have more flexibility, and may have fire sales to keep the doors open.

Lose money on every transaction, just make up for it in volume?

:laughing:

There’s a saying in the farm business “Your first loss is your best loss” which simply means sell a depreciating commodity sooner rather than later. Car dealers must have fixed costs and financing costs that must be paid regardless. At what point do they say “yeah I’m losing money on every sale but I need the cash flow to pay my bills”?

Add to that calculation the promised government assistance in terms of loans and grants. We won’t know the desperation level of any particular dealer.

I guess it’s the same as pre-pandemic, if you don’t ask, you don’t get.

driver100

My guess would be...he probably lost his license before, was driving drunk, thought if he pinned it on the dog they couldn't charge him. Actually, pretty smart thinking...I'll have to remember that one.

jmonroe

oldfarmer50 said:

Now was this fintail or 28firefighter? I knew one of us would snap.😳🤯😜

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/2020-03-31-cops-discover-dog-behind-the-wheel-after-high-speed-chase-i-wish-i-could-make-this-up-23966538.html

April Fools.

jmonroe

Michaell

fintail said:

I think that was 28ff, I don't have a dog. Sounds better than Toonces the Driving Cat anyway. I've seen dogs I think could drive better than some locals.

Regarding the economy, I have some expectation of stimulus/bailout part II plans maybe in the next 6 weeks or so. While the current plan is better than nothing, I suspect a lot more is going to be needed for people and businesses both.

I read an article today that suggested the total stimulus/bailout needed to overcome the economic impact was in the neighborhood of 10% of global GDP.

Michaell

oldfarmer50 said:

Michaell said:

kyfdx said:

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

I don't think prices are going to drop that fast for new cars. The dealer profit margin is fixed, and unless the manufacturer adds incentives, the dealer can't really sell for less. They'll drop, just maybe less than you think.

Used cars are going to be a crapshoot. With no auctions to set prices, dealers may be at sea. Though, this is one area where they have more flexibility, and may have fire sales to keep the doors open.

Lose money on every transaction, just make up for it in volume?

:laughing:

There’s a saying in the farm business “Your first loss is your best loss” which simply means sell a depreciating commodity sooner rather than later. Car dealers must have fixed costs and financing costs that must be paid regardless. At what point do they say “yeah I’m losing money on every sale but I need the cash flow to pay my bills”?

Add to that calculation the promised government assistance in terms of loans and grants. We won’t know the desperation level of any particular dealer.

I guess it’s the same as pre-pandemic, if you don’t ask, you don’t get.

Fair point - as a small business owner (well, the wife and stepdaughter run the business), our fixed costs don't disappear. Rent and utilities still have to be paid, though we can apply for a rent abatement through our landlord - after we provide a small mountain of information about the impact to the business.

We're fortunate that we've collected fees for our summer camps - but, if we have to start cancelling them (they start in late May), then the negative cash flow is gonna hurt quickly.

andres3

graphicguy said:

Had someone call yesterday that I didn’t know (usually means a spam call). Guy on the other end said a friend of mine told him I had a TLX for sale. I do. And, I know the friend.

We went back and forth about the condition of the car (excellent, always garaged, bought new, A-Spec, all loaded up, no runs, drips or errors...driver’s leather seat isn’t even creased, low mileage, needs nothing, very red).

He said he was looking for a car to replace his Civic. Don’t know why, but I thought that was odd. He he wanted to know my asking. Last I looked, private party value was between $27K-$29K. I told him those numbers, and also told him since mine was pretty pristine, I was leaning towards the $29K number. But, to make a quick sale, I’d split the difference at $28K.

He went on to say he was looking at several other cars. Thought I was high in my asking (maybe....maybe not). Was wondering if he could take a test drive. Before doing that, I asked if I could text him some pics. Took interior, exterior, trunk, under hood, undercarriage (as best I could). He called me back a couple of hours later wanting to know if he could do a test drive. As I told him, given the present circumstances, I’d want to know if he was interested given my asking price. He said he was interested at $25K.

I politely told him I appreciated his time, but we were not going to make a deal unless he added $3K to his offer, and I made it contingent on a test drive but would have to see a cashier’s check first.

He got a little huffy with me. I dunno, maybe I was pushing it a bit much. What say you peanut gallery? Was I over the line?

Hmmm..... I'm not sure here. I'd of probably asked him if he was "negotiable" on his $25K offer. That when he sees the car, he'll know your asking price is more reasonable than his offer. If the car is as you say it is, surely he can come up on his offer? IF he says no, then no need to test drive. IF he says yes, maybe there's a deal to be had.

VW lost a highly potential sale with the no test drive till we agree on price method with me. I can't raise my offer without a test drive. Chicken and the egg.

andres3

snakeweasel said:

andres3 said:

snakeweasel said:

andres3 said:

snakeweasel said:

andres3 said:

snakeweasel said:

andres3 said:

snakeweasel said:

andres3 said:

oldfarmer50 said:

benjaminh said:

Two charts from a piece in today's New York Times. There are different charts in this article based on different scenarios.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html

I think those death projections are wishful thinking on the part of the NYT.

I did read a biased article in the NYT about how Germany should vote to put speed limits on the Autobahn, and they are like Americans clinging to the 2nd Amendment in regards to having no speed limits.

Then they said something to the effect of: 70% of the Autobahn is limitless, 30% is limited, and that the safety is clear, because the limited sections have 26% lower fatalities!!!

Little do they know that anyone that can do a little math would know that they just made a very compelling and powerful argument for no speed limits. As 70/30 would indicate that the limited sections should be 57% lower in fatalities, assuming they were EQUALLY safe. Since their own data and argument stated it was only 26% lower, it is clear which method is working to save lives better!

Of course, this doesn't take into account traffic and miles driven, but neither did their evidence or poorly written opinion piece, so I'm only using their own figures against them. Strange how they used word and number play to try and convey a conclusion the opposite of what the figures and data show to be true.

The problem with your post is that the limited sections don't have 26% lower fatalities, they have a 26% lower fatality rate. Big difference there. That means that for an equal number of miles driven there will be fewer fatalities on the limited sections then on the unlimited sections. Completely the opposite of your conclusion.

Where do you get that information as the word "rate" wasn't used in the article, so you must have another source? Or are you just inventing things? I find when fatalities are talked about the word "rate" is deliberately left out, not accidentally left out. Is this the one exception of all-time? We shall find out.....

Drumroll....

P.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/world/europe/germany-autobahn-speed-limit.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

Quoting "The number of deadly accidents on stretches of autobahn that have a speed limit is 26 percent lower than on those without."

You might have different English comprehension than I do, but my language skills indicates "the number of deadly accidents" is most definitely a figure, and not a rate.

So based on this I'm going to say you pulled your post out of your behind with no substantiation or support, much like the way most of the speed limits in the USA are decided in the first place.

I didn't read that article but I have researched the issue and I am going off of a German Government statistic that gave the fatality rates separated by limited and unlimited sections of the autobahn. Those statistics showed a marked decline in the fatality rate in the sections with a speed limit. A quick web search revealed only overall fatality rates but I will do a more complete search when time permits. I do recall we discussed this before and I'll see I'd I can find the posts on it.

Also there is another flaw in your argument, can you figure it out?

I've already pointed it out. Just because more fatalities happen where there are speed limits, and less happen where there are none, and there are more miles of no speed limits on the Autobahn vs. limited sections, it doesn't mean more people drive more miles on that roadway vs. the other. I've always preferred vehicle miles traveled in high sample sizes like the billions. It's the fairest and most honest equalizer by far. Population is pretty meaningless because you could have a million people that never drive.

Sorry you didn't, you made the claim that the high speed sections were safer because the sections with a speed limit being 30% of the roads had 26% fewer fatalities and if they were equally safe it would have larger percentage. You totally ignored vehicle miles traveled, I was the one who brought it up.

andres3 said:

I don't think we've ever gone into the intricacies and details of the Autobahn before, because the facts of the Autobahn don't fit your preconceived notions and biases. You usually discount it as superior German DNA, training, licensing, and enforcement.

Yes we have, or at least I have. A long time ago you posted that the autobahn was the safest highway system in the world despite having no speed limits (spoiler alert it isnt). I replied that it wasn't a good ideal to truly compare the autobahn to the interstate highways since they exist in different environments with different customs and laws. I mentioned that a better comparison would be between Germany and Denmark. At that time Denmark had a safer highway system based on fatalities per vehicle miles traveled and they have a speed limit on all their highways. But the fatality rate of the Danish highways was approximately equal to the fatality rate on the sections of the autobahn with speed limits.

Now while DNA is rather silly there are differences between the US and Germany that do account for Germany having safer roads.

Yes Germanys licensing process is far more difficult and more expensive than here in the US. It truly does make the US's look like a joke, something that has been discussed here before. This includes training at high speeds.

Germans tend to follow traffic laws far more than they do here, again this has been discussed here at length.

Germany is a much smaller country that has a much higher population density with a very good public transit system. Think less driver fatigue.

Germany has a higher population density than the US. Because of this an accident in Germany will result in emergency services getting to the accident faster than say in rural Nebraska, the sooner medical care is administered the greater the chance of surviving. This is one of reasons why rural fatality rates are higher than urban rates.

Germany does a better job on up keeping the autobahn than most states do for their roads.

andres3 said:

Everywhere in the world I've looked, putting speed limits where there were none has resulted in higher fatality rates, whether it be Montana, Australia, or anywhere else.

Source? Also remember there are plenty of things that influence fatality rates.

andres3 said:

I've looked at a great number of these studies. Your "speed kills" myth propagating crowd hates using rates. Like the NY Time article, they almost always speak about fatalities in deceptive numbers that don't take rates into account. This is nothing new. I didn't suddenly figure this out. I just see it every time I'm reading something from the IIHS, the NHTSA, Australia, or the fake and failing news media. There's a consistency to the sources on "your side," and that's not a compliment.

Dont talk about others using deceptive numbers when you started this with deceptive numbers.

I didn't use deceptive numbers. Goodness gracious.

I was just pointing out how the NY Times used deceptive numbers without any qualification to support their argument or Opinion piece.

I was using their own numbers against them. They are not my numbers.

I've never said the Autobahn is the safest in the world, just that it is very safe by worldwide standards. It is always hovering at about 1/2 the fatality rate of US highways. Someone should look into how people from outside Germany are probably "padding" the bad stats.

I suggest you read your original post. But whatever makes you sleep at night. I'm out of here.

You mean the one where you were caught red-handed making inaccurate untrue statements? Of course, you admitted you didn't even read the article I was referencing in the NY Times.

Jumping to false conclusions as usual. Deceptive. Misleading. Are you sure you don't get paid by the IIHS?

In what universe did that happen?

Funny thing is just before seeing this post I hear on the news that the CHP has reported empty roads and that people are going faster (many getting tickets for triple digits) and the CHP has stayed the they are seeing more serious accidents than they normally see. I'll see if I can find that online.

The definition of Universe is "one" verse. What multiverse do you live in?

The CHP is the authority on safety and collision rates now? The same agency that does a piss poor job of keeping our roads safe? The same agency that would rather focus on revenue generation than target truly hazardous drivers, such as left lane impeders (for the most part; once in a blue moon, you'll see they go after these imbeciles). The same agency that had an Officer that didn't even know to "shift to neutral" in the event of unintended acceleration? The same agency that remains the only agency to lose a trial by mail/declaration to me?

I think I've made my point here, I don't see the CHP as an appeal to an authority with any credibility.

I'd prefer my anecdotal observations. I haven't run into a single traffic jam or snarl since this "stay at home" government takeover started. These "serious collisions" seem to cause huge traffic jams and snarls. So where are they? I haven't seen an ambulance yet, and my job is "essential" so I've been commuting quite a bit still. Starting last week, we are half time from home though. Still, my commute is nearly 30 miles each way, so that's a lot of exposure for anecdotes.

andres3

kyfdx said:

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

I don't think prices are going to drop that fast for new cars. The dealer profit margin is fixed, and unless the manufacturer adds incentives, the dealer can't really sell for less. They'll drop, just maybe less than you think.

Used cars are going to be a crapshoot. With no auctions to set prices, dealers may be at sea. Though, this is one area where they have more flexibility, and may have fire sales to keep the doors open.

Certainly prices would drop more and HOTTER fire sales would happen everywhere on everything without the bailout bonanza going on.

This is one reason I didn't like the 2008 bailouts. I would have liked to see homes plummet down to Detroit values in CA. Due to the bailouts, the banks didn't have to negotiate.

suydam

I’m really glad you weren’t in charge back then! I thought having our home values drop a mere 40% was bad enough. Silly me.

andres3

suydam said:

I’m really glad you weren’t in charge back then! I thought having our home values drop a mere 40% was bad enough. Silly me.

Well, if you go by @snakeweasel line of thinking, your home doesn't drop in value unless you sell it and realize the loss. Solution is don't sell! LOL!.

graphicguy

@oldfarmer50 ....your buddy Scotty before he was a YouTuber....

https://youtu.be/LO8NOnQTo6Y

snakeweasel

GraphicGuy congrats on the deal, sounds very generous. Good luck on the next stage of your life.

snakeweasel

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

Some might go for a cheaper used car, some might just go down a few rungs on the ladder and get a cheaper trim and or model.

or you can just get this
https://www.drivechicago.com/cars/2020-chevrolet-blazer-morris_3GNKBCRS3LS602162

imidazol97

snakeweasel said:

or you can just get this
https://www.drivechicago.com/cars/2020-chevrolet-blazer-morris_3GNKBCRS3LS602162

And some folks claimed GM overpriced their vehicles.

snakeweasel

driver100 said:

Sometimes it is better to liquidate at a loss and get some cash in hand...to pay off debts. So possible manufacturers will reduce prices for the dealers.

Just an opinion....this recession seems different than most. Big loss of jobs and cut backs, people can't pay their mortgage or rent, people aren't driving much.....it is possible new and used car sales will fall off.

They interviewed a garage owner in todays newspaper....garages are supposed to be recession proof, he says business is off by a lot........people have other concerns, and aren't driving.

Well businesses are closed, restaurants are closed, bars are closed, theaters closed and we are under a stay at home order, so where are people going to go?

stickguy

will they negotiate?

andres3

https://news.yahoo.com/verge-massive-collapse-ex-energy-155602853.html

All of you not offering to pay $4/gallon for your fuel, are causing another industry to go down the tubes. It's time for more bailouts!

Stop paying under $2/gallon ($3 in CA), and volunteer to pay $4/gallon to save the US oil industry now!

fintail

I can believe it - the nations producing most GDP are seeing the most slowdown. Stimulus II by the end of May, over/under?

And there'll need to be a bone thrown to renters too - I've seen a couple mortgage aid package proposals (gotta please your campaign contributors, I guess), but I'll wager everything I own that this crisis is disproportionately affecting renters, given the impact on the service industries and their usual wages. I suspect a lot of people were maybe 1.5 paychecks at best away from hardship, and UI along with an effectively taxable lump sum won't solve anything.

Michaell said:

I read an article today that suggested the total stimulus/bailout needed to overcome the economic impact was in the neighborhood of 10% of global GDP.

oldfarmer50

graphicguy said:

@oldfarmer50 ....your buddy Scotty before he was a YouTuber....

https://youtu.be/LO8NOnQTo6Y

Boy, you must be getting cabin fever to resort to watching Scotty. I’m still waiting to get a plugged catalytic converter so I can drive a hundred miles on lacquer thinner to clean it out like he says.

Say, I just found out today that I’m getting my own golden parachute. Seems I have 46 hours of sick leave that the company is paying me. That’s like two weeks extra pay.

More like a golden handkerchief.

stickguy

something for the Scotty fans. I think a few here can probably related to the junk collection. But he has a few interesting items, and is quite the hoot going through it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2doFSW7LVE

Sandman6472

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

oldfarmer50

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

When my boss called me with the lay off notice he specifically said to file for UI so I’m guessing the company is ok with it. Originally I wasn’t going to file but since we don’t know how long we’ll be out I said what the heck. If I’m not eligible because of SS or pensions I’ll let them tell me.

My problem is that I got 90% through the automated process on the phone and the the robot told me I’d have to talk to a representative and hung up. After calling for a week and getting nothing but a busy signal I’m not sure how long it will take. Web site has crashed too. I’d hate to be needing money to pay for food and have this happen. I’m standing down for now so as to not tie up services others may need more than me.

andres3

oldfarmer50 said:

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

When my boss called me with the lay off notice he specifically said to file for UI so I’m guessing the company is ok with it. Originally I wasn’t going to file but since we don’t know how long we’ll be out I said what the heck. If I’m not eligible because of SS or pensions I’ll let them tell me.

My problem is that I got 90% through the automated process on the phone and the the robot told me I’d have to talk to a representative and hung up. After calling for a week and getting nothing but a busy signal I’m not sure how long it will take. Web site has crashed too. I’d hate to be needing money to pay for food and have this happen. I’m standing down for now so as to not tie up services others may need more than me.

Sounds like a typical government agency. Sure, there is high demand right now, but that's really an excuse isn't it? Incompetence runs rampant in our government.

Michaell

andres3 said:

oldfarmer50 said:

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

When my boss called me with the lay off notice he specifically said to file for UI so I’m guessing the company is ok with it. Originally I wasn’t going to file but since we don’t know how long we’ll be out I said what the heck. If I’m not eligible because of SS or pensions I’ll let them tell me.

My problem is that I got 90% through the automated process on the phone and the the robot told me I’d have to talk to a representative and hung up. After calling for a week and getting nothing but a busy signal I’m not sure how long it will take. Web site has crashed too. I’d hate to be needing money to pay for food and have this happen. I’m standing down for now so as to not tie up services others may need more than me.

Sounds like a typical government agency. Sure, there is high demand right now, but that's really an excuse isn't it? Incompetence runs rampant in our government.

I can't buy into that. The most efficiently run gov't organization is going to struggle with 10x volume overnight - phones, computers, staff, the works. And, it's not like you can just plug in more staff without training, or more computing power.

CA was getting 100,000 calls a day to their unemployment group.

qbrozen

snakeweasel said:

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

Some might go for a cheaper used car, some might just go down a few rungs on the ladder and get a cheaper trim and or model.

or you can just get this
https://www.drivechicago.com/cars/2020-chevrolet-blazer-morris_3GNKBCRS3LS602162

Sweet! Thanks for the lead. I just emailed them with the link and said I’ll take it at the advertised price.

qbrozen

stickguy said:

something for the Scotty fans. I think a few here can probably related to the junk collection. But he has a few interesting items, and is quite the hoot going through it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2doFSW7LVE

No no no no no.
Don’t you start, too. We should all be refusing to click his links and put money in his pocket. The only way to stop the madness is to cut off his funding.

stickguy

Agree with Michael here. Any business staffs for reasonable expected volume. If a tsunami volume hits, they will be swamped. More of an issue with web crashing. That can be scaled up a lot easier than agent pool to answer phones.

Sandy, to your question, if you want the money there is no downside to filing. You will qualify due to job elimination. As long as hours or dollars and service time is enough won’t matter to the company about taking you back. They won’t take it personally.

Try the website first.

abacomike

andres3 said:

https://news.yahoo.com/verge-massive-collapse-ex-energy-155602853.html

All of you not offering to pay $4/gallon for your fuel, are causing another industry to go down the tubes. It's time for more bailouts!

Stop paying under $2/gallon ($3 in CA), and volunteer to pay $4/gallon to save the US oil industry now!

I've learned the hard way in my lifetime to "...never volunteer for anything! If drafted I will serve! If not drafted, I will resume my comfortable life!" That goes for "volunteering" to pay $4.00 a gallon for ⛽️ gasoline.

snakeweasel

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

For us we are maintaining essential services with skeleton crews keeping staff at locations as low as possible. Those that can work from home like me do so remotely, I go into the office for maybe an hour twice every other week. Those not working are still getting their 40 hours pay.

As for me I am actually working a few more hours each pay period so I am actually getting a small bump in pay during this.

snakeweasel

andres3 said:

oldfarmer50 said:

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

When my boss called me with the lay off notice he specifically said to file for UI so I’m guessing the company is ok with it. Originally I wasn’t going to file but since we don’t know how long we’ll be out I said what the heck. If I’m not eligible because of SS or pensions I’ll let them tell me.

My problem is that I got 90% through the automated process on the phone and the the robot told me I’d have to talk to a representative and hung up. After calling for a week and getting nothing but a busy signal I’m not sure how long it will take. Web site has crashed too. I’d hate to be needing money to pay for food and have this happen. I’m standing down for now so as to not tie up services others may need more than me.

Sounds like a typical government agency. Sure, there is high demand right now, but that's really an excuse isn't it? Incompetence runs rampant in our government.

Yes it is an excuse, you can count on your hand the number of services where the quality of the services will not diminish as use increases. Services have a critical mass that once that is exceeded the quality of that service drops. Imagine everybody in the country deciding to get gas all at the same time, do you think you could find a station where you can just pull up to a pump?

stickguy

qbrozen said:

stickguy said:

something for the Scotty fans. I think a few here can probably related to the junk collection. But he has a few interesting items, and is quite the hoot going through it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2doFSW7LVE

No no no no no.
Don’t you start, too. We should all be refusing to click his links and put money in his pocket. The only way to stop the madness is to cut off his funding.

Guess I shouldn’t mention spending 1/2 hour last night watching a few others. Spoiler alert: he doesn’t recommend a newer Silverado.

stickguy

Snake, that’s an odd thing with this economic collapse. Tons of people thrown out of work, but the rest seem to be working like dogs to handle what’s left.

jipster

50/50 chance I'll be in the market for a 2020 v-hickle. Wife says "Buy, Buy...we need a reliable car!!" , but until recently my 2008 Mercury Mariner (168,000 miles) has been reliable. Driving home from Chic fi la about 5 days ago the car seemed to slip into a lower gear at 35 mph, then a bit of shudder. Stop. Put in park. Drive home... it's okay. The next day I drive my brother to dealership to pick up his car. My car drives fine on the way, but driving back home I notice the fan is not blowing air, soon after, at around 35-40 mph I get a noticeable shudder and vibration from steering column. Sounds like metal tapping metal. The shudder also has a bit.of a.clanking noise which gets worse the faster I go. No shudder once speed drops below 35mph. Get the car home, hear a groaning sound.as I'm turning in driveway. Get out of car, a bit of a burning rubber smell. Both days this happened it was warm.

In doing a little research it sounds like the torque converter is going bad. I read that old worn out transmission fluid can cause this problem. The next day turns much cooler, I drive the car for 30 minue, no problems. Shifts and runs good. I do a drain and fill of 4 quarts Mervon V trans fluid the next day. The weather is still.cool. Drive for about 40 minutes, drives and shifts fine. Ordered some Lubegard Platinum. If the shudder returns once the weather warms up, I'll try that. At some.point I'll do another fluid drain and fill. If the shudder returns (it's quite violent, can't drive over 45 mph), then it's time to buy.

So, does this sound.like a torque converter problem? Haven't read but a few posts here, car sales down due to Corona virus?.

Probably going to look at a few cars Friday. Just in case, Sales lady says call ahead and she'd have a Hyundai Sonata washed, disinfected and sterilized for us. WOW!. She said my trade.in was worth between $1,000 and $1,500. Also, may try to look at a Mazda 6, and Toyota Camry.

snakeweasel

qbrozen said:

snakeweasel said:

oldfarmer50 said:

driver100 said:

Re car sales, random comments;

TrueCar has forecast a sales drop for March of 37 percent and Lyman said sales in April could also be off between 50 percent to 60 percent.
Just how bad March was is an open question. Cox Automotive did not release a monthly forecast, but said its data showed that on March 27, new vehicle sales to consumers fell 55 percent versus the same day in 2019.

In U.S. states under “stay-at-home” orders, sales fell as much as 80 percent to 90 percent, Cox estimated. Those include states like California and New York, home to a large portion of the American car-buying population.

GM and Toyota report March sales today. Could be a good time to buy, if you really need want a new car.

Ok, now crystal ball this: will the current conditions cause those sales drops in ALL cars or just new ones? I’m wondering, will uncertain times push people into buying cheaper used cars who would have otherwise bought new. So you might get a killer deal on a new car but find pushback if you try to low ball on a used one.

Some might go for a cheaper used car, some might just go down a few rungs on the ladder and get a cheaper trim and or model.

or you can just get this
https://www.drivechicago.com/cars/2020-chevrolet-blazer-morris_3GNKBCRS3LS602162

Sweet! Thanks for the lead. I just emailed them with the link and said I’ll take it at the advertised price.

Good luck, I checked the dealers website and they had it at around $35K. If it was that price that thing would be in my driveway right now.

graphicguy

jipster said:

50/50 chance I'll be in the market for a 2020 v-hickle. Wife says "Buy, Buy...we need a reliable car!!" , but until recently my 2008 Mercury Mariner (168,000 miles) has been reliable. Driving home from Chic fi la about 5 days ago the car seemed to slip into a lower gear at 35 mph, then a bit of shudder. Stop. Put in park. Drive home... it's okay. The next day I drive my brother to dealership to pick up his car. My car drives fine on the way, but driving back home I notice the fan is not blowing air, soon after, at around 35-40 mph I get a noticeable shudder and vibration from steering column. Sounds like metal tapping metal. The shudder also has a bit.of a.clanking noise which gets worse the faster I go. No shudder once speed drops below 35mph. Get the car home, hear a groaning sound.as I'm turning in driveway. Get out of car, a bit of a burning rubber smell. Both days this happened it was warm.

In doing a little research it sounds like the torque converter is going bad. I read that old worn out transmission fluid can cause this problem. The next day turns much cooler, I drive the car for 30 minue, no problems. Shifts and runs good. I do a drain and fill of 4 quarts Mervon V trans fluid the next day. The weather is still.cool. Drive for about 40 minutes, drives and shifts fine. Ordered some Lubegard Platinum. If the shudder returns once the weather warms up, I'll try that. At some.point I'll do another fluid drain and fill. If the shudder returns (it's quite violent, can't drive over 45 mph), then it's time to buy.

So, does this sound.like a torque converter problem? Haven't read but a few posts here, car sales down due to Corona virus?.

Probably going to look at a few cars Friday. Just in case, Sales lady says call ahead and she'd have a Hyundai Sonata washed, disinfected and sterilized for us. WOW!. She said my trade.in was worth between $1,000 and $1,500. Also, may try to look at a Mazda 6, and Toyota Camry.

Jip...I test drove one of those new Sonatas to get the $40 gift card offered at the recent local car show.

I was dutifully impressed. Slick styling...all the modern safety tech. Not a stop light warrior, but quick enough to keep up with traffic. I was also impressed with how quiet it was on the admittedly brief test drive.

oldfarmer50

Michaell said:

andres3 said:

oldfarmer50 said:

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

When my boss called me with the lay off notice he specifically said to file for UI so I’m guessing the company is ok with it. Originally I wasn’t going to file but since we don’t know how long we’ll be out I said what the heck. If I’m not eligible because of SS or pensions I’ll let them tell me.

My problem is that I got 90% through the automated process on the phone and the the robot told me I’d have to talk to a representative and hung up. After calling for a week and getting nothing but a busy signal I’m not sure how long it will take. Web site has crashed too. I’d hate to be needing money to pay for food and have this happen. I’m standing down for now so as to not tie up services others may need more than me.

Sounds like a typical government agency. Sure, there is high demand right now, but that's really an excuse isn't it? Incompetence runs rampant in our government.

I can't buy into that. The most efficiently run gov't organization is going to struggle with 10x volume overnight - phones, computers, staff, the works. And, it's not like you can just plug in more staff without training, or more computing power.

CA was getting 100,000 calls a day to their unemployment group.

As much as I hate the bureaucracy I have to agree with you. No one could have foreseen this, let alone prepared for it.

nyccarguy

jipster said:

50/50 chance I'll be in the market for a 2020 v-hickle. Wife says "Buy, Buy...we need a reliable car!!" , but until recently my 2008 Mercury Mariner (168,000 miles) has been reliable. Driving home from Chic fi la about 5 days ago the car seemed to slip into a lower gear at 35 mph, then a bit of shudder. Stop. Put in park. Drive home... it's okay. The next day I drive my brother to dealership to pick up his car. My car drives fine on the way, but driving back home I notice the fan is not blowing air, soon after, at around 35-40 mph I get a noticeable shudder and vibration from steering column. Sounds like metal tapping metal. The shudder also has a bit.of a.clanking noise which gets worse the faster I go. No shudder once speed drops below 35mph. Get the car home, hear a groaning sound.as I'm turning in driveway. Get out of car, a bit of a burning rubber smell. Both days this happened it was warm.

In doing a little research it sounds like the torque converter is going bad. I read that old worn out transmission fluid can cause this problem. The next day turns much cooler, I drive the car for 30 minue, no problems. Shifts and runs good. I do a drain and fill of 4 quarts Mervon V trans fluid the next day. The weather is still.cool. Drive for about 40 minutes, drives and shifts fine. Ordered some Lubegard Platinum. If the shudder returns once the weather warms up, I'll try that. At some.point I'll do another fluid drain and fill. If the shudder returns (it's quite violent, can't drive over 45 mph), then it's time to buy.

So, does this sound.like a torque converter problem? Haven't read but a few posts here, car sales down due to Corona virus?.

Probably going to look at a few cars Friday. Just in case, Sales lady says call ahead and she'd have a Hyundai Sonata washed, disinfected and sterilized for us. WOW!. She said my trade.in was worth between $1,000 and $1,500. Also, may try to look at a Mazda 6, and Toyota Camry.

I think you have to drain & fill as a preventative measure. If you don't, it doesn't help to put new fluid in once you start having problems.

oldfarmer50

snakeweasel said:

andres3 said:

oldfarmer50 said:

Sandman6472 said:

OF, talked with a guy on our crew, he's in his late 30's, and he's already filed for unemployment and says others have to though he couldn't tell me who. Spoke with another guy on the crew, he's in his mid 70's, and he's done nothing, same as me. I'm not sure what to do here since I've still got my monthly income coming in as usual. Just not sure right now if I should file, will they try to fight it, will they let me back if I do file and the work place opens up again? Just not sure what to do?
What are folks in your crew doing?

When my boss called me with the lay off notice he specifically said to file for UI so I’m guessing the company is ok with it. Originally I wasn’t going to file but since we don’t know how long we’ll be out I said what the heck. If I’m not eligible because of SS or pensions I’ll let them tell me.

My problem is that I got 90% through the automated process on the phone and the the robot told me I’d have to talk to a representative and hung up. After calling for a week and getting nothing but a busy signal I’m not sure how long it will take. Web site has crashed too. I’d hate to be needing money to pay for food and have this happen. I’m standing down for now so as to not tie up services others may need more than me.

Sounds like a typical government agency. Sure, there is high demand right now, but that's really an excuse isn't it? Incompetence runs rampant in our government.

Yes it is an excuse, you can count on your hand the number of services where the quality of the services will not diminish as use increases. Services have a critical mass that once that is exceeded the quality of that service drops. Imagine everybody in the country deciding to get gas all at the same time, do you think you could find a station where you can just pull up to a pump?

I don’t have to imagine. I was around during the 1973 gas crisis.

stickguy

Jip, I understand trying to be economical (ok, I’m cheap) but at some point you need to look at the big picture. Sounds like you got your money’s worth, and most of the life, out of the old car. So if you can afford something better/newer/more reliable, listen to the wife and get it. Probably a good time to get a good deal on something new and just keep it a long time. A Hyundai being a good option for that.

Me, I’m too old and cranky to be worrying every time I drive my car it won’t make it home. And if it ever broke down on my wife and stranded her, I would never hear the end of it. Plus she would never drive it again!

oldfarmer50

jipster said:

50/50 chance I'll be in the market for a 2020 v-hickle. Wife says "Buy, Buy...we need a reliable car!!" , but until recently my 2008 Mercury Mariner (168,000 miles) has been reliable. Driving home from Chic fi la about 5 days ago the car seemed to slip into a lower gear at 35 mph, then a bit of shudder. Stop. Put in park. Drive home... it's okay. The next day I drive my brother to dealership to pick up his car. My car drives fine on the way, but driving back home I notice the fan is not blowing air, soon after, at around 35-40 mph I get a noticeable shudder and vibration from steering column. Sounds like metal tapping metal. The shudder also has a bit.of a.clanking noise which gets worse the faster I go. No shudder once speed drops below 35mph. Get the car home, hear a groaning sound.as I'm turning in driveway. Get out of car, a bit of a burning rubber smell. Both days this happened it was warm.

In doing a little research it sounds like the torque converter is going bad. I read that old worn out transmission fluid can cause this problem. The next day turns much cooler, I drive the car for 30 minue, no problems. Shifts and runs good. I do a drain and fill of 4 quarts Mervon V trans fluid the next day. The weather is still.cool. Drive for about 40 minutes, drives and shifts fine. Ordered some Lubegard Platinum. If the shudder returns once the weather warms up, I'll try that. At some.point I'll do another fluid drain and fill. If the shudder returns (it's quite violent, can't drive over 45 mph), then it's time to buy.

So, does this sound.like a torque converter problem? Haven't read but a few posts here, car sales down due to Corona virus?.

Probably going to look at a few cars Friday. Just in case, Sales lady says call ahead and she'd have a Hyundai Sonata washed, disinfected and sterilized for us. WOW!. She said my trade.in was worth between $1,000 and $1,500. Also, may try to look at a Mazda 6, and Toyota Camry.

When I had a torque converter shudder in my 95’ Lincoln it wasn’t that violent (More like a vibration as it shifted into 4th) but changing the fluid and adding a quart of Lubeguard did the trick. Worked fine until I sold it 4 years later.

When I had problems with the transmission on my Chevy it turned out to be just a few electronic switches. If the fluid fix doesn’t work find a reputable indie shop who won’t just up sell you a new one.

Is that an AWD? Check the transfer case. I’ve heard Fords are finicky about fluid there too.