@jmonroe1 said: @Mike, needless to say we’re all hoping this will work for you. You’ve had your share of pain and then some. Enough is enough already.
jmonroe
Thanks for your kind words, JM. Yes, the last 6 years have been pretty painful - the liver resection almost did me in with the 3 malignant tumors and 2-1/2 months in hospitals and rehab facilities.
@Mike, I believe you should be a little more aggressive in your approach to pain management. Your back pain is a chronic condition. And anything short of surgery will unfortunately result in continual pain and perhaps addiction to opioids. I didn't intend to sound so mean but that's what virtual friends are for. Good luck with what you decide, Prayers.
@bwia said: @Mike, I believe you should be a little more aggressive in your approach to pain management. Your back pain is a chronic condition. And anything short of surgery will unfortunately result in continual pain and perhaps addiction to opioids. I didn't intend to sound so mean but that's what virtual friends are for. Good luck with what you decide, Prayers.
Thanks bwia! I do not use any opioids for my pain. I am allergic to codiene, oxicodone, oxicotin, Vicodin, dilaudid and a few other opioids. I can handle morphine but I get constipated and also hyperactive - I have some sort of syndrome that causes the reverse response to opioids so instead of feeling sedated I can’t sleep. I can also handle Demerol but they don’t use that drug anymore.
So the chances of my becoming addicted to opioids is almost nil since I can’t handle most of them.
Never been given Fentanyl and I hear it is a strong opioid but I end up just living with the pain.
@abacomike, it sounds like the less invasive approach mapped out for you has a reasonable chance of enabling a significant improvement for you. Hopefully, with your history of postoperative difficulties, you can avoid a more major approach. All the best, buddy….
They say that now is not a good time to buy cars as used car prices are high and new cars are not discounted by much. Soon the bubble will burst and you can find good deals but not now. its a sellers market.
I think it's an understatement - it's probably worst time to buy a vehicle in a generation. But the bubble may not burst that "soon". It may gradually deflate due to slight corrections in the demand in reaction to the pricing. If the supply is still low, price crash is not possible without complete demand destruction, but many people still need vehicles, every day somebody wrecks one, somebody's car doesn't start, or a teenager gets a driver license, so there is some base demand pressure.
So far we are seeing even deeper more production cuts (recently Toyota and Honda), as even those who has some spare supply of chips just ran out of them. At this point new car production supply is still getting worse, not better. The chip suppliers have zero spare production capacity (full backlog with other orders), vehicle chips are low margin, so they have zero incentive to work with likes of GM, Ford or Toyota to move the orders in the line, moreover, they weren't treated very well in the past by them (that's especially true with domestic, who notoriously treat their suppliers like garbage), so why would they bail them out now? Very few manufacturers have sufficient supply, I heard suprisingly BMW is one of them, as they have much better relationships and they did not panic in March 2021 and did not cancel their orders back then. BTW, it takes couple of years and billion dollars to open a silicone chip fabrication facility. I recently got a mail "offer" from the dealer to trade-in my GC and buy new 4-series at full MSRP minus $500 manufacturer's loyalty rebate. Plus of course all these wonderful Florida fees... but of course. Some offer, the fact that they actually put that in writing tells things are just plain awful for the consumer.
Knowledgeable people see gradual improvement starting this fall (mostly due to certain demand corrections, i.e. people finally refusing to pay ridiculous prices, only these who have to) with full recovery in mid-late 2022 at earliest. Will see if they're correct. The signs of fully recovered market should be return of ads with zero down deals on used cars. The only thing that could speed it up would be sudden surge in chip supply followed by car manufacturers gold rush of production (e.g. Ford sending all these chips to be installed on dealers' lots). No signs of that coming any time "soon".
I have the same opinion. No crash, maybe an easing, but it will be gentle and over a relatively long period. If one wants to wait it out, hope you like your current ride for a couple more years. That's a part of why I am thinking of buying out my lease - residual is now a bit lower than retail, I know the car well, no worries about finding a new car with missing features at a stupid price, or paying through the roof for a used car, etc.
I see the hot real estate market (on the west coast anyway) doing the same thing, 20% YOY increases are not sustainable, but I will wager a lot that we aren't going to see 2008 again. If one thinks they can wait 5 years and return to the market of 2011, well, good luck.
They say that now is not a good time to buy cars as used car prices are high and new cars are not discounted by much. Soon the bubble will burst and you can find good deals but not now. its a sellers market.
I think it's an understatement - it's probably worst time to buy a vehicle in a generation. But the bubble may not burst that "soon". It may gradually deflate due to slight corrections in the demand in reaction to the pricing. If the supply is still low, price crash is not possible without complete demand destruction, but many people still need vehicles, every day somebody wrecks one, somebody's car doesn't start, or a teenager gets a driver license, so there is some base demand pressure.
So far we are seeing even deeper more production cuts (recently Toyota and Honda), as even those who has some spare supply of chips just ran out of them. At this point new car production supply is still getting worse, not better. The chip suppliers have zero spare production capacity (full backlog with other orders), vehicle chips are low margin, so they have zero incentive to work with likes of GM, Ford or Toyota to move the orders in the line, moreover, they weren't treated very well in the past by them (that's especially true with domestic, who notoriously treat their suppliers like garbage), so why would they bail them out now? Very few manufacturers have sufficient supply, I heard suprisingly BMW is one of them, as they have much better relationships and they did not panic in March 2021 and did not cancel their orders back then. BTW, it takes couple of years and billion dollars to open a silicone chip fabrication facility. I recently got a mail "offer" from the dealer to trade-in my GC and buy new 4-series at full MSRP minus $500 manufacturer's loyalty rebate. Plus of course all these wonderful Florida fees... but of course. Some offer, the fact that they actually put that in writing tells things are just plain awful for the consumer.
Knowledgeable people see gradual improvement starting this fall (mostly due to certain demand corrections, i.e. people finally refusing to pay ridiculous prices, only these who have to) with full recovery in mid-late 2022 at earliest. Will see if they're correct. The signs of fully recovered market should be return of ads with zero down deals on used cars. The only thing that could speed it up would be sudden surge in chip supply followed by car manufacturers gold rush of production (e.g. Ford sending all these chips to be installed on dealers' lots). No signs of that coming any time "soon".
I think I agree, real estate boom is also driven by low supply and perhaps some trend changes, not explosion of demand due to unsustainable source of money. Doesn’t mean prices won’t correct, especially on marginal properties, but you need demand destruction beyond refusal to pay the price to have a crash. Crashes are when buyers won’t buy at any price, because they have no money. For that you’d need some kind of capacity destruction that would impoverish the population and make the capital flee.
Speaking of real estate, home passed inspection with flying colors. First time I have ever seen a report with literally nothing needing fixing. I mean, of course the inspector noted a couple of things but nothing I need to request be repaired, nor really needing repair.
Also got the disclosures from the mortgage company. I hoped for a hair lower, but 3.25% isn’t really anything to complain about on a vacation home, I don’t think. And because we are borrowing relatively little, it makes almost no impact. Another 1/8th point off is only $11/mo.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
@carnaught said: @abacomike, it sounds like the less invasive approach mapped out for you has a reasonable chance of enabling a significant improvement for you. Hopefully, with your history of postoperative difficulties, you can avoid a more major approach. All the best, buddy….
Car Prices Have my lease up this month. I could only extend my lease for 2 months unless I had a purchase/lease order in place. I was looking at MB GLE 350 which this month is going for over $1,000 a month at 36 months and 12K a year with about $1300 down. Audi Q7 55 premium plus same term above with 1000 down about $1200 a month. The above both have add on dealer fees, increased money factors, and either right at MRSP or above. Both vehicle you have to add maintenance as not standard. The costco incentive on audi does very little. Blows me away with these prices.
I think I agree, real estate boom is also driven by low supply and perhaps some trend changes, not explosion of demand due to unsustainable source of money. Doesn’t mean prices won’t correct, especially on marginal properties, but you need demand destruction beyond refusal to pay the price to have a crash. Crashes are when buyers won’t buy at any price, because they have no money. For that you’d need some kind of capacity destruction that would impoverish the population and make the capital flee.
I read somewhere recently that Americans are sitting on $3.5trillion in cash as opposed to $390 billion pre pandemic. To me that means there is a lot of money available to pay inflated car prices.
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
I looked over at the nice, clean black MDX next to me on the exit ramp this morning. Michelins! Cross Country 2 tires. All nice and oily from the silicon coating from being cleaned.
Tread is aggressive. For heavy rain and snow driving it's gotta be great. But I just can't believe it will be successful for all purpose touring driving as the tire wears. But then I've been wrong before: I bought GM cars. What more can I say?
I recall early in my Michelin life of buying tires from the Sears Roadhandler IIRC with tubes inside..., it was a later version of the standard Michelin that had a whine on smooth roads when I was traveling. It was like driving in a DC 9. Of course that was either a Mustang or Torino and the soundproofing was likely deficient, but that high-pitched whine came right through. Later the treads were modified with unequal spacing to reduce that effect.
Car Prices Have my lease up this month. I could only extend my lease for 2 months unless I had a purchase/lease order in place. I was looking at MB GLE 350 which this month is going for over $1,000 a month at 36 months and 12K a year with about $1300 down. Audi Q7 55 premium plus same term above with 1000 down about $1200 a month. The above both have add on dealer fees, increased money factors, and either right at MRSP or above. Both vehicle you have to add maintenance as not standard. The costco incentive on audi does very little. Blows me away with these prices.
I would assume that most people are probably better off buying the lease out. Instant equity, and cheaper than paying the crazy payment on a new lease.
I think we'd need a 1929 to do in the current market, at least in this part of the country. Tons of outside money continues to pour in - new arrivals, investors, a dearth of new construction, rising rents, fear of rising rates, it will all add to demand.
Mortgages are also a bit harder to get than before the prior meltdown - in my recent pre-approval, I felt like a couple were playing a game of 20 questions, but once approved, I was pleasantly surprised by the terms and approval limit. Now to find the right place, which is even more difficult than car shopping these days.
I think I agree, real estate boom is also driven by low supply and perhaps some trend changes, not explosion of demand due to unsustainable source of money. Doesn’t mean prices won’t correct, especially on marginal properties, but you need demand destruction beyond refusal to pay the price to have a crash. Crashes are when buyers won’t buy at any price, because they have no money. For that you’d need some kind of capacity destruction that would impoverish the population and make the capital flee.
How long was your wait for appraisal? Locally I've heard 4 weeks.
My mom recently bought a house - her current house is a laundry list of deferred maintenance, some of which would need one to vacate the house to fix (plumbing and foundation work), so she decided to let it go and find something already sorted. She bought a little bungalow an older contractor had renovated it over the course of several years as his retirement home, then decided he didn't want to live in that small town. He went through all systems and did everything for his own use, not as a flip. First buyer's financing apparently fell through, my mom was on it 5 minutes after it was re-listed. Inspection had but two minor issues that could be remedied for $50. It should be solid for a long time. I am happy for her and relieved she'll have a place that shouldn't be a money pit.
Speaking of real estate, home passed inspection with flying colors. First time I have ever seen a report with literally nothing needing fixing. I mean, of course the inspector noted a couple of things but nothing I need to request be repaired, nor really needing repair.
Also got the disclosures from the mortgage company. I hoped for a hair lower, but 3.25% isn’t really anything to complain about on a vacation home, I don’t think. And because we are borrowing relatively little, it makes almost no impact. Another 1/8th point off is only $11/mo.
@andres3 said:
The 85th percentile rule establishes a speed limit that, by definition, 85% of drivers feel comfortable with. Studies have definitively shown (graph below) that the 85th, or even a few mph above it, is the speed at which the accident risk is the lowest. When the posted limit is arbitrarily dropped below the 85th, you drop on that curve and raise the accident risk rate. The traffic flow will be less smooth, creating more interactions (and frustrations) between drivers and other vehicles. Stopping, starting, decelerating, accelerating, rapid lane changing, etc. That is a primary reason the accident rate goes up when travel speeds are set unnaturally low. A higher accident rate at slower speeds vs. a lower one at 85th percentile speeds. I know which one I would choose from a safety standpoint.
By the way, the 85th percentile speed is one standard deviation above the median speed. Per this graph, that is about 10 mph above the zero deviation mark.
First off let's see the studies that prove the 85th percentage then let's see the studies that reproduce that. I haven't seen them. secondly people thinking they are being safe and people actually being safe are two different realities.
Finally your graph has nothing to do with this discussion and has been debunked.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
@qbrozen said:
Speaking of real estate, home passed inspection with flying colors. First time I have ever seen a report with literally nothing needing fixing. I mean, of course the inspector noted a couple of things but nothing I need to request be repaired, nor really needing repair.
Also got the disclosures from the mortgage company. I hoped for a hair lower, but 3.25% isn’t really anything to complain about on a vacation home, I don’t think. And because we are borrowing relatively little, it makes almost no impact. Another 1/8th point off is only $11/mo.
You did good! I secured 3.125% on a much larger loan, but that was nearly two months ago when we locked our rate. Mortgage broker said it was going up for seconds. Second homes are always a little higher of a percentage, because they are considered higher risk.
Car Prices Heard about another deal but do not know the specific details. Honda CRV with $4,000 down and $450 a month. Crazy stuff. I am considering buying the lease out.
The lack of new inventory is trickling down into shortage of used inventory and raising those prices. Less new inventory = less new car buyers = less trade ins = less used cars as well.
I've been buying and keeping vehicles on our lot that we normally wouldn't like higher mileage older units, paying close to what these cars sold for retail 6-12 months ago and obviously pricing them higher to make a little bit for the dealership. So every car we get in we have to push up the ceiling up on pricing to make something.
Next few months might be tough for new car sales so we need to keep used inventory on hand. Surprisingly these older units have been selling well. Civics at auctions are almost impossible to find, and when they do pop up we have companies like Canada Drives (Canadian version of Carvana) paying over retail just to gain market share. It is what it is, but I think next 6-12 months might be tough.
Car Prices Have my lease up this month. I could only extend my lease for 2 months unless I had a purchase/lease order in place. I was looking at MB GLE 350 which this month is going for over $1,000 a month at 36 months and 12K a year with about $1300 down. Audi Q7 55 premium plus same term above with 1000 down about $1200 a month. The above both have add on dealer fees, increased money factors, and either right at MRSP or above. Both vehicle you have to add maintenance as not standard. The costco incentive on audi does very little. Blows me away with these prices.
I would assume that most people are probably better off buying the lease out. Instant equity, and cheaper than paying the crazy payment on a new lease.
I couldn’t agree more. I was talking to a guy at work who had a 2019 Tacoma lease and he was thinking of trading it in. I told him to buy it out first and make some money.
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
I was in the car business for 8 years, both as a salesman at Lexus and a sales manager at Infinity. The only instances I experienced where there was a shortage of new car inventory was when a new model was introduced and we had waiting lists of buyers waiting for their turn to purchase the model.
Two examples were the Lexus SC430 hard-top convertible (2003-2005) and the Infinity G35 Coupe (2006-2008). There was no discounting off MSRP - both models were sold at MSRP + dealer fees. Unfortunately due to shortages of microprocessors, cars are being sold at close to MSRP because of inventories that are extremely low on popular models.
Friends of mine still in the car business are telling me that customers are paying the higher prices and are not bickering over color or even optional equipment. As I mentioned the other day, Genesis is selling their new vehicles at MSRP or a few hundred under, if you are lucky enough to find a suitable vehicle.
This is going to continue well into 2022 and perhaps a bit beyond until inventories on dealer lots improve.
I was in the car business for 8 years, both as a salesman at Lexus and a sales manager at Infinity. The only instances I experienced where there was a shortage of new car inventory was when a new model was introduced and we had waiting lists of buyers waiting for their turn to purchase the model.
Two examples were the Lexus SC430 hard-top convertible (2003-2005) and the Infinity G35 Coupe (2006-2008). There was no discounting off MSRP - both models were sold at MSRP + dealer fees. Unfortunately due to shortages of microprocessors, cars are being sold at close to MSRP because of inventories that are extremely low on popular models.
Friends of mine still in the car business are telling me that customers are paying the higher prices and are not bickering over color or even optional equipment. As I mentioned the other day, Genesis is selling their new vehicles at MSRP or a few hundred under, if you are lucky enough to find a suitable vehicle.
This is going to continue well into 2022 and perhaps a bit beyond until inventories on dealer lots improve.
I really want an M2 Comp, but it looks like I can order a G42 M240i for @$3,000 less than a 2019 M2C with under 8k miles. I'd still have to wait until 2022 to get a RWD model- and of course I need to verify that I can delete the sunroof.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
I met some friends at the Boca Town Center Mall yesterday to walk a little and shop. I haven’t seen the mall that crowded in almost 2 years - even more crowded than last Christmas Season. People were buying as evidenced by the shopping bags they were carrying from Nordstrom’s, Bloomingdales, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, etc.
Didn’t stay too long as it appeared to be a breeding ground for COVID-19. Based just on what I witnessed at the mall, it would seem that there are lots of shoppers “buying” which leads to a healthier economy. But inflation could put a damper on things.
Most vehicles I am looking at one is lucky if you can get it at MRSP. In florida you have the added on dealer fee and if leasing increased money factor. Dealers are salivating at the buyers willing to pay above MRSP and added on fees. There is no loyalty going on now. Only short term gains.
When I was having the TL serviced at a local Honda dealer about a month ago, they added a Market Adjustment of $4k on top of the $2k of extra add ones like paint sealant, mud guards, nitrogen on a new Civic Touring. Ouch.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
If you need a new car buy one of these....these makes have the highest inventories; Fiat—108 days Alfa Romeo—93 Genesis—80 Buick—77 Volvo VLVLY, +0.31% —74 Infiniti—73 Jeep—72 Lincoln—62 Ram—60 Volkswagen VWAGY, -2.06% —59 Anyone want a new Fiat? I see them on the highway sometimes and they look like a strong wind could blow it away.
@mlevine said:
Most vehicles I am looking at one is lucky if you can get it at MRSP. In florida you have the added on dealer fee and if leasing increased money factor. Dealers are salivating at the buyers willing to pay above MRSP and added on fees. There is no loyalty going on now. Only short term gains.
Selling less and making more on each unit. I bet if you asked any dealer they would rather have inventory and sell at discounts like it was.
We are spending the week in Hilton Head. The Passat is a great highway cruiser and got great gas mileage. Heavy traffic around HH brought it down from 43.4 to 41.
A couple of pics, the Q5, RDX, VW fleet were all loaded down.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
Amazing thing, but dang, you can still get a pretty nice house here for that kind of money, at least for now. That's a long long trailer, I wonder if it has door chimes.
@sda said:
We are spending the week in Hilton Head. The Passat is a great highway cruiser and got great gas mileage. Heavy traffic around HH brought it down from 43.4 to 41.
A couple of pics, the Q5, RDX, VW fleet were all loaded down.
SW corner of the island nearer the inlet I’m guessing?
If it appeals to you, we had a blast doing the HH Escape Room last week.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
When I was having the TL serviced at a local Honda dealer about a month ago, they added a Market Adjustment of $4k on top of the $2k of extra add ones like paint sealant, mud guards, nitrogen on a new Civic Touring. Ouch.
Amazing thing, but dang, you can still get a pretty nice house here for that kind of money, at least for now. That's a long long trailer, I wonder if it has door chimes.
Yeah, as a trailer to use as originally intended it seems rather daunting. You would probably need a dually HD pickup to haul it, and then it would be a handful to maneuver around in a RV park. Seems maybe more like the kind of thing you take somewhere and park for the season.
We are spending the week in Hilton Head. The Passat is a great highway cruiser and got great gas mileage. Heavy traffic around HH brought it down from 43.4 to 41.
A couple of pics, the Q5, RDX, VW fleet were all loaded down.
SW corner of the island nearer the inlet I’m guessing?
If it appeals to you, we had a blast doing the HH Escape Room last week.
Sea Pines off Plantation Dr. Gorgeous. Getting ready to ride bikes.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
@sda That's great hwy mpg for what is close to a full size car. I feel happy when I get 38-39 on the hwy, and so I think you've got me beat by a few mpg. I almost feel like who needs a hybrid if you can get 38+ mpg on the highway. City mpg is a different story, of course, and there a hybrid does better.
@driver100 said:
If you need a new car buy one of these....these makes have the highest inventories;
Fiat—108 days
Alfa Romeo—93
Genesis—80
Buick—77
Volvo VLVLY, +0.31% —74
Infiniti—73
Jeep—72
Lincoln—62
Ram—60
Volkswagen VWAGY, -2.06% —59
Anyone want a new Fiat?
I see them on the highway sometimes and they look like a strong wind could blow it away.
Those are “averages” driver! Those inventory numbers do not take into consideration the specific territories of dealerships. The Infinity dealer I used to work at has only 100 new vehicles on the ground which represents less than a 30 day supply. The Lexus dealership across the street has less than 200 new vehicles in inventory and represents only a 28 day supply.
Also remember that there are very few vehicles at the ports waiting to be delivered to dealers due to the change in model year production and the microprocessor shortage.
The Ford dealership near me has two empty new car lots which are usually filled. Same with the Volkswagen dealership near me. My Genesis dealer has only 6 G90’s and just 10 G80’s and 7 G70’s and they are the highest sales dealership here in South Florida.
So average inventories don’t necessarily depict what’s actually happening in terms of shortages in new vehicles in specific high population territories.
When my dealer group had a Fiat store I was seriously thinking about buying an Abarth. About the same time we needed to pick my son up after his freshman year at South Carolina. Just for fun I rented a 500 to drive down there. My wife and I both loved it. A base 500 is no rocket, but I never had a problem merging or keeping up with traffic- even north of 80 mph. I’d still consider an Abarth for a DD, but I doubt that Fiat will remain in the US market much longer. Ditto for Alfa- which keeps me from considering a slick CPO Giulia Quadrifoglio I came across…
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
who knows when buyers just start walking out. Then can put whatever ADM sticker they want on the car, but there is still the pressure that when a real buyer is standing there with their checkbook, willing to take a car home with them, to want to get a deal done.
so the Elantra I saw yesterday with a $2,500 extra profit line, if I made a real offer of flat MSRP right here, right now, might work.
We are spending the week in Hilton Head. The Passat is a great highway cruiser and got great gas mileage. Heavy traffic around HH brought it down from 43.4 to 41.
A couple of pics, the Q5, RDX, VW fleet were all loaded down.
Nice vacation spot, nice gas mileage. What engine do you have in the Passat?
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
Comments
Thanks for your kind words, JM. Yes, the last 6 years have been pretty painful - the liver resection almost did me in with the 3 malignant tumors and 2-1/2 months in hospitals and rehab facilities.
@Mike, I believe you should be a little more aggressive in your approach to pain management. Your back pain is a chronic condition. And anything short of surgery will unfortunately result in continual pain and perhaps addiction to opioids. I didn't intend to sound so mean but that's what virtual friends are for. Good luck with what you decide, Prayers.
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
Thanks bwia! I do not use any opioids for my pain. I am allergic to codiene, oxicodone, oxicotin, Vicodin, dilaudid and a few other opioids. I can handle morphine but I get constipated and also hyperactive - I have some sort of syndrome that causes the reverse response to opioids so instead of feeling sedated I can’t sleep. I can also handle Demerol but they don’t use that drug anymore.
So the chances of my becoming addicted to opioids is almost nil since I can’t handle most of them.
Never been given Fentanyl and I hear it is a strong opioid but I end up just living with the pain.
2024 Genesis G90 Super-Charger
So far we are seeing even deeper more production cuts (recently Toyota and Honda), as even those who has some spare supply of chips just ran out of them. At this point new car production supply is still getting worse, not better. The chip suppliers have zero spare production capacity (full backlog with other orders), vehicle chips are low margin, so they have zero incentive to work with likes of GM, Ford or Toyota to move the orders in the line, moreover, they weren't treated very well in the past by them (that's especially true with domestic, who notoriously treat their suppliers like garbage), so why would they bail them out now? Very few manufacturers have sufficient supply, I heard suprisingly BMW is one of them, as they have much better relationships and they did not panic in March 2021 and did not cancel their orders back then. BTW, it takes couple of years and billion dollars to open a silicone chip fabrication facility. I recently got a mail "offer" from the dealer to trade-in my GC and buy new 4-series at full MSRP minus $500 manufacturer's loyalty rebate. Plus of course all these wonderful Florida fees... but of course. Some offer, the fact that they actually put that in writing tells things are just plain awful for the consumer.
Knowledgeable people see gradual improvement starting this fall (mostly due to certain demand corrections, i.e. people finally refusing to pay ridiculous prices, only these who have to) with full recovery in mid-late 2022 at earliest. Will see if they're correct. The signs of fully recovered market should be return of ads with zero down deals on used cars. The only thing that could speed it up would be sudden surge in chip supply followed by car manufacturers gold rush of production (e.g. Ford sending all these chips to be installed on dealers' lots). No signs of that coming any time "soon".
2018 430i Gran Coupe
I see the hot real estate market (on the west coast anyway) doing the same thing, 20% YOY increases are not sustainable, but I will wager a lot that we aren't going to see 2008 again. If one thinks they can wait 5 years and return to the market of 2011, well, good luck.
2018 430i Gran Coupe
Speaking of real estate, home passed inspection with flying colors. First time I have ever seen a report with literally nothing needing fixing. I mean, of course the inspector noted a couple of things but nothing I need to request be repaired, nor really needing repair.
Also got the disclosures from the mortgage company. I hoped for a hair lower, but 3.25% isn’t really anything to complain about on a vacation home, I don’t think. And because we are borrowing relatively little, it makes almost no impact. Another 1/8th point off is only $11/mo.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
Thanks, Will! 😜🤪🤓
2024 Genesis G90 Super-Charger
My son ordered this painting from Germany for my birthday. I just had it framed and it will be hung in my office on Tuesday.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
Have my lease up this month. I could only extend my lease for 2 months unless I had a purchase/lease order in place. I was looking at MB GLE 350 which this month is going for over $1,000 a month at 36 months and 12K a year with about $1300 down. Audi Q7 55 premium plus same term above with 1000 down about $1200 a month. The above both have add on dealer fees, increased money factors, and either right at MRSP or above. Both vehicle you have to add maintenance as not standard. The costco incentive on audi does very little. Blows me away with these prices.
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
Cross Country 2 tires. All nice and oily from the silicon coating from being cleaned.
Tread is aggressive. For heavy rain and snow driving it's gotta be great. But I just can't believe it will be successful for all purpose touring driving as the tire wears. But then I've been wrong before: I bought GM cars. What more can I say?
I recall early in my Michelin life of buying tires from the Sears Roadhandler IIRC with tubes inside..., it was a later version of the standard Michelin that had a whine on smooth roads when I was traveling. It was like driving in a DC 9. Of course that was either a Mustang or Torino and the soundproofing was likely deficient, but that high-pitched whine came right through. Later the treads were modified with unequal spacing to reduce that effect.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Mortgages are also a bit harder to get than before the prior meltdown - in my recent pre-approval, I felt like a couple were playing a game of 20 questions, but once approved, I was pleasantly surprised by the terms and approval limit. Now to find the right place, which is even more difficult than car shopping these days.
My mom recently bought a house - her current house is a laundry list of deferred maintenance, some of which would need one to vacate the house to fix (plumbing and foundation work), so she decided to let it go and find something already sorted. She bought a little bungalow an older contractor had renovated it over the course of several years as his retirement home, then decided he didn't want to live in that small town.
He went through all systems and did everything for his own use, not as a flip. First buyer's financing apparently fell through, my mom was on it 5 minutes after it was re-listed. Inspection had but two minor issues that could be remedied for $50. It should be solid for a long time. I am happy for her and relieved she'll have a place that shouldn't be a money pit.
First off let's see the studies that prove the 85th percentage then let's see the studies that reproduce that. I haven't seen them. secondly people thinking they are being safe and people actually being safe are two different realities.
Finally your graph has nothing to do with this discussion and has been debunked.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
You did good! I secured 3.125% on a much larger loan, but that was nearly two months ago when we locked our rate. Mortgage broker said it was going up for seconds. Second homes are always a little higher of a percentage, because they are considered higher risk.
2025 Ram 1500 Laramie 4x4 / 2023 Mercedes EQE 350 4Matic / 2022 Icon I6L Golf Cart
Heard about another deal but do not know the specific details. Honda CRV with $4,000 down and $450 a month. Crazy stuff. I am considering buying the lease out.
People may need to continue with the car(s) they have for the next year or two.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
I've been buying and keeping vehicles on our lot that we normally wouldn't like higher mileage older units, paying close to what these cars sold for retail 6-12 months ago and obviously pricing them higher to make a little bit for the dealership. So every car we get in we have to push up the ceiling up on pricing to make something.
Next few months might be tough for new car sales so we need to keep used inventory on hand. Surprisingly these older units have been selling well. Civics at auctions are almost impossible to find, and when they do pop up we have companies like Canada Drives (Canadian version of Carvana) paying over retail just to gain market share. It is what it is, but I think next 6-12 months might be tough.
2016 Audi A7 3.0T S Line, 2021 Subaru WRX
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
I was in the car business for 8 years, both as a salesman at Lexus and a sales manager at Infinity. The only instances I experienced where there was a shortage of new car inventory was when a new model was introduced and we had waiting lists of buyers waiting for their turn to purchase the model.
Two examples were the Lexus SC430 hard-top convertible (2003-2005) and the Infinity G35 Coupe (2006-2008). There was no discounting off MSRP - both models were sold at MSRP + dealer fees. Unfortunately due to shortages of microprocessors, cars are being sold at close to MSRP because of inventories that are extremely low on popular models.
Friends of mine still in the car business are telling me that customers are paying the higher prices and are not bickering over color or even optional equipment. As I mentioned the other day, Genesis is selling their new vehicles at MSRP or a few hundred under, if you are lucky enough to find a suitable vehicle.
This is going to continue well into 2022 and perhaps a bit beyond until inventories on dealer lots improve.
2024 Genesis G90 Super-Charger
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
I don’t know about myrtle beach but when we refi’d our primary in NJ last month, the appraiser was here in about 3 days.
I’m not sure if the bank appraised the condo yet. My paperwork merely states they’ll let me know no later than 3 days before closing.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
I met some friends at the Boca Town Center Mall yesterday to walk a little and shop. I haven’t seen the mall that crowded in almost 2 years - even more crowded than last Christmas Season. People were buying as evidenced by the shopping bags they were carrying from Nordstrom’s, Bloomingdales, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, etc.
Didn’t stay too long as it appeared to be a breeding ground for COVID-19. Based just on what I witnessed at the mall, it would seem that there are lots of shoppers “buying” which leads to a healthier economy. But inflation could put a damper on things.
2024 Genesis G90 Super-Charger
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1950-westcraft-capistrano/
2017 Cadillac ATS Performance Premium 3.6
That’s a beauty! 🤓
2024 Genesis G90 Super-Charger
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Does anybody? If they do, they’ve never looked at the nightly prices of rv parks.
Although I wouldn’t call it camping. Camping involves no more than a tent for shelter, IMHO.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
Fiat—108 days
Alfa Romeo—93
Genesis—80
Buick—77
Volvo VLVLY, +0.31% —74
Infiniti—73
Jeep—72
Lincoln—62
Ram—60
Volkswagen VWAGY, -2.06% —59
Anyone want a new Fiat?
I see them on the highway sometimes and they look like a strong wind could blow it away.
2017 MB E400 , 2015 MB GLK350, 2014 MB C250
Selling less and making more on each unit. I bet if you asked any dealer they would rather have inventory and sell at discounts like it was.
2025 Ram 1500 Laramie 4x4 / 2023 Mercedes EQE 350 4Matic / 2022 Icon I6L Golf Cart
“Glamping”
2025 Ram 1500 Laramie 4x4 / 2023 Mercedes EQE 350 4Matic / 2022 Icon I6L Golf Cart
We are spending the week in Hilton Head. The Passat is a great highway cruiser and got great gas mileage. Heavy traffic around HH brought it down from 43.4 to 41.
A couple of pics, the Q5, RDX, VW fleet were all loaded down.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
SW corner of the island nearer the inlet I’m guessing?
If it appeals to you, we had a blast doing the HH Escape Room last week.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
2017 Cadillac ATS Performance Premium 3.6
SW corner of the island nearer the inlet I’m guessing?
If it appeals to you, we had a blast doing the HH Escape Room last week.
Sea Pines off Plantation Dr. Gorgeous. Getting ready to ride bikes.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
Those are “averages” driver! Those inventory numbers do not take into consideration the specific territories of dealerships. The Infinity dealer I used to work at has only 100 new vehicles on the ground which represents less than a 30 day supply. The Lexus dealership across the street has less than 200 new vehicles in inventory and represents only a 28 day supply.
Also remember that there are very few vehicles at the ports waiting to be delivered to dealers due to the change in model year production and the microprocessor shortage.
The Ford dealership near me has two empty new car lots which are usually filled. Same with the Volkswagen dealership near me. My Genesis dealer has only 6 G90’s and just 10 G80’s and 7 G70’s and they are the highest sales dealership here in South Florida.
So average inventories don’t necessarily depict what’s actually happening in terms of shortages in new vehicles in specific high population territories.
2024 Genesis G90 Super-Charger
When my dealer group had a Fiat store I was seriously thinking about buying an Abarth. About the same time we needed to pick my son up after his freshman year at South Carolina. Just for fun I rented a 500 to drive down there. My wife and I both loved it. A base 500 is no rocket, but I never had a problem merging or keeping up with traffic- even north of 80 mph. I’d still consider an Abarth for a DD, but I doubt that Fiat will remain in the US market much longer. Ditto for Alfa- which keeps me from considering a slick CPO Giulia Quadrifoglio I came across…
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
so the Elantra I saw yesterday with a $2,500 extra profit line, if I made a real offer of flat MSRP right here, right now, might work.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
Yep. SW corner.
We looked at a townhouse there. You can get one for less than a condo on the ocean side.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S