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There are separate groupings, but an rx330 hybrid means that more lx470's can be sold, and the same goes for priuses meaning more avalons/camrys can be sold, etc. Cars are supposed to average 27.5 across the fleet, and trucks are supposed to average 21.9. With the GX getting 15/18 and the LX getting 14/17 you need to sell something else. Even the is300 gets only 18/24.
I'm not sure if the toyota/lexus is all lumped together as far as the EPA is concerned, though.
Still, don't you find it a bit hyporcritical of Toyota not to just switch all of them to Hybrid designs, and really increase the fleet CAFE? I mean, after they have straightened out their battery production problems?
If the technology completely viable, they could announce it now, and move the HSD into all vehicles as they go through their product cycles...
They already did!
It's what I've been saying all along. Hybrid systems will be available in every passenger vehicle they offer by 2010.
Please pay closer attention.
JOHN
It would be hypocritical if they simply sold an extra lx470 for every hybrid they sell. But there's no reason to assume that this is the plan, even if we guess it might be.
John, sorry I missed the link to where Toyota said that. Could you re-post it? However, my thought was that if they really cared to be the environmental car company, and believed in the technology, they would build all of their cars with hybrid, 2010 being a good target date. If hybrid and HSD is the best way to go and they believe in it, why not make the committment?
"Please pay closer attention."
Sorry, have to attend to the "day job" sometimes...
36 mpg city, 63 highway
282/(km/L)=MPG
I hate it when I misspell a word. Maybe it was a Freudian slip, meaning surely I am jesting.
The current high-profit vehicles are what's providing the funding to setup the infrastructure to support hybrids.
Money for that doesn't magically appear, and most companies don't have that much uninvested capital just laying around. So they have to build a little at a time. And that's exactly what's happening.
No industry is capable of the "overnight" switch, just look at all the struggling the computer market has been having... then look at the television market (high-definition & DVD recording). It defies the priniciples of economics. It is an extraordinarily high risk that neither management nor boardmembers nor stockholders will commit to using an agressive schedule.
Rollout takes time, especially in the automotive market where they have traditionally moved at a snail's pace. Patient is required.
JOHN
That's totally non-constructive. So don't expect further replies from me. Ask about driving related stuff instead.
JOHN
Or perhaps we can discuss the countless fuel-cell vehicles that continue to be shown off but never seem to get past prototypes. (Where's all the money for that going? And who's paying for it in the first place?)
And what about the many other vehicles that get hopelessly backordered? Is that what Toyota should do... just release a few? Then they would have delivered. Notice how "vague" comes into play. Actual quantity is just as important as the delivery as the first one.
Since Toyota/Lexus knows they can't deliver enough, why string everyone along by just releasing a few into the wild? That would seem far worse that their honest admission of a delay. I think you should reconsider your accusation.
JOHN
Hmmm, if it was needless to say, why say it?
Anyway, I thought I was discussing the technology, i.e., as in just how much Toyota believes in it... which is a viable question. It is of interest because the European manufacturors are much more interested in Diesel for high fuel economy than Hybrids. It is a much more established technology, uses fuel that is easier to refine (I haven't heard if the low sulfer makes it of similar cost - anyone have info on that?) - and indeed, can run on bio fuel if desired. I just recently discovered that when Mr Diesel debuted his first engine, it ran on bio-fuel. His dream was to elimiate oil as a fuel...
However, I think I'll end this thread of mine as well, and let the discussion revert to diesel questions...
you and I are on the same wavelength with fuel cells. I think it would be wiser to just burn the Natural gas as LNG or CNG it is very clean. However there is still distribution problems and availability in many parts of the USA.
Toyota/Lexus knows they can't deliver enough, why string everyone along by just releasing a few into the wild? That would seem far worse that their honest admission of a delay.
I believe the dates are purposely lied about to keep people buying the cars they make the big bucks on. I think you feel they are great guys. They are as shifty as any auto manufacturer. And with their huge profits that you have bragged about they are probably bigger crooks than the other auto makers. They are only slightly behind the oil companies in there unscrupulous ways of doing business and that I do know about first hand.
100% Biodiesel is the only in use alternative to fossil fuels, and working very well. Here is a link with my main man Willie getting his new E320 CDI to run on 100% biodiesel.
http://www.biodiesel.com/Willie.htm
Here's the numbers:
PRIUS
--------
50 MPG - Highway Loop
54 MPG - Suburb Loop
52 MPG - City Loop
18 MPG - Race Track
JETTA GLS TDI AT
--------------------
42 MPG - Highway Loop
42 MPG - Suburb Loop
33 MPG - City Loop
17 MPG - Race Track
Prius was faster too. 0-60, 0-100, 5-60, 30-50, 60-70, and 1/4 mile were are better than the Jetta.
So there!
JOHN
Hmmm, they didn't have a category for "replacement battery cost"
Prius: (est) $3000 <Hopefully less, but who knows?>
TDI: $0
The difference in MPG would take even longer than a diesel engine lifetime to make up the dollar cost difference...
There is proof however that a full hybrid like Prius will operate as normal even with degraded battery capacity, since most of the electricity comes directly from the engine anyway.
No matter, by the time the clean diesel systems using low-sulfur diesel become available nationwide, there will be an overwhelming amount of proof.
Too bad diesel couldn't have become cleaner sooner... oh well.
JOHN
If we were all driving VW Rabbit diesels since 1978 we would have at least twice as much oil left as we now have. 50 mpg vehicles have been around for way more than 25 years. Prius is a johnny come lately in the high mileage game. Oh, and by the way leaded gasoline was much more carcinogenic in 1978 than diesel. Environmentalist working in conjunction with the oil companies have blocked the cleanup of diesel. Hundreds of environmentalists are on the oil company payrolls. This distorts the issues you raise on the cleanup of Diesel. Just because someone touts a good cause does not mean they have pure motives or clean hands. I look to see who is feeding them.
I'm a diesel supporter and the mpg figures aren't hurting me at all. I've said all along if you drive in the city a Hybrid is most likely an excellent choice. Out on the highway, with equal transmissions they're probably very close.
The kicker is the performance. The Prius is the latest greatest newest technology and surely is maximized for performance. The TDI is old-school low-tech and highly gagged compared to diesel engines offered everywhere else in the world. The same 100hp TDI offered here puts out 130hp in Europe even in the same low-tech design. The performance numbers on my easily modified TDI are much better than the Prius and my mileage really hasn't suffered at all. When they can get the Prius down to my 8.5 second 0-60 times and still get an overall average of high 40's (and offer it in a package more attractive and better built than a Prius) I'll give them a closer look. In the mean time, I've got a superior package for a heckuva lot less money and I know the resale value will be there when I want to get rid of it. What still remains to be seen with the hybrids is whether or not they'll be a white elephant with 150k miles on them.
In other words, if everyone was driving a *TINY* vehicle...
Prius is quite a bit bigger... and drastically cleaner.
JOHN
Vague replies are misleading at best...
But by providing detail, it becomes obvious how weak the resale implication is. Vehicles that old don't have much of a resale value anyway!
Here's two Kelley Blue Book trade-in values samples after 8 years of use with the vehicle still in good condition at 150,000 miles:
1996 Toyota Camry DX Sedan 4D
Engine: 4-Cyl. 2.2 Liter
Trans: Automatic
Drive: Front Wheel Drive
Air Conditioning
Power Steering
Tilt Wheel
AM/FM Stereo
Dual Front Air Bags
$1,680
1996 Toyota Camry XLE Sedan 4D
Engine: V6 3.0 Liter
Trans: Automatic
Drive: Front Wheel Drive
Air Conditioning
Power Steering
Power Windows
Power Door Locks
Tilt Wheel
Cruise Control
AM/FM Stereo
Cassette
Single Compact Disc
Premium Sound
Dual Front Air Bags
Front Side Air Bags
ABS (4-Wheel)
Power Seat
Alloy Wheels
$2,915
Also note that selling the vehicle yourself would provide a higher return. However, that "good" rating is rather generous. Most vehicles that old only qualify as "fair". And if you have been involved in even a minor body-damaging accident, expect "poor".
In other words, once a vehicle has reached the 150,000 mile mark and it still runs just fine, you are at the "better off just keeping it" stage.
JOHN
Prius is quite a bit bigger
Went right over your head again. The Rabbit was equal in size to the Toyota & Honda built in 1978. I bought a new Accord in 1978 because there was a waiting list for the VW Rabbit diesel. I should have waited the Rabbit is still worth a couple grand. The Honda was on the scrap heap by 1988.
JOHN
But by providing detail, it becomes obvious how weak the resale implication is. Vehicles that old don't have much of a resale value anyway!
And poor interpretation skills are what??. You see the final $$ value of a used vehicle is somewhat worthless unless it's put in perspective of the original price paid. I know this may be hard to grasp, but if you paid $25,000 for a vehicle and someone else paid $17,000 and both vehicles are now worth $3,000, the $25,000 vehicle has worse resale value. But yeah, they're both not worth much.
Theoretically, if they do end up being white elephants with 150k miles, they'll have similarly poor resale value at lower mileage as well.
Someone isn't going to shell out big bucks for a car that will be virtually worthless in 50k miles.
I notice a '96 VW TDI with 150k miles and good condition is valued slightly higher than the Camry. So basically you have a TDI holding it's own against what's still a very popular used vehicle that was priced much higher when new. I paid over $20,000 for a Camry in 1992. I'll let someone else figure out the depreciation on a vehicle like this. By the time they offer a decent hybrid, we should know more about what happens later in life. When you're able to get back 65% of your money when the car is 4.5 years old and 85k miles, then I won't be as skeptical.
In the mean time, this looks like a good auction to watch:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1- - - &item=2486672407&category=6021
Vague replies are misleading at best..."
Year 5 Expected resale value... (all things being equal)..
* This is a 5-year estimate (based on 15,000 miles per year). " Edmunds.com
(TCP=Edmunds TMV+Tax and Fees)
04 Prius $9566 (TCP=$24,536) Retained Value=~39%
04 Civic Hybrid $9254 (TCP=$21,742) RV=~43%
04 Insight $8915 (TCP=$22,710) RV=~39%
04 Jetta GLS TDI 5M $9868 (TCP=$22,307) RV=~44%
04 Jetta GLS TDI 5A $10,341 (TCP=$23,446) RV=~44%
Ot there is this tidbit...also from Edmunds....
"Top 10 Cars With the Best Residual Value for 2004"
"Below we show the percentage of its original value that each vehicle is likely to retain after five years with an annual mileage of 15,000. Keep in mind that the residual value percentages are based on the national True Market Value® (TMV) price, plus typical options and destination charge."
#6 - 49% - Volkswagen New Beetle
Volkswagen Jetta
#8 - 47% - Volkswagen Passat
#9 - 46% - Volkswagen Golf
Obviously there are other cars on the list.....but ALL of the Hybrids are absent...then again..the list only goes to #10 and #10 is the 45% category......
So there are some resale estimates...from "experts" in the business.....
That's because no data exists. There is no previous years data to leverage off of yet. Wild guessing serves no purpose. So they don't bother. It would only hurt their credibility by being off in either direction too much.
Remember, the price of gas 8 years from now will have a profound affect on resale values.
JOHN
I made no such comparison. I said if we all had been driving the Rabbit diesel since 1978 we would have used a lot less of our fossil fuel. I made no comparison to the Prius. My point was the Prius is nothing new as far as fuel saving goes. We have had high mileage technology for many, many years. You seem to think this is some great new innovation to get great mileage. It is obviously very economical or we would not be in this debate. It is not the end all, it is just another very fuel efficient vehicle to come to the market. It is not the most fuel efficient on the market either.
Face it--the TDI is pretty low-tech, and in a lot of tests, equals the prius, despite having tires owners don't need to replace to get acceptable handling, and not having a body with an extremely low drag coefficient.
I think we both need to wait, until toyota ships an realistic and unsubsidized car here, and we get some of the newer diesels from mercedes, bmw, vw, et al.
Not when comparing diesels to hybrids. They're both good on economy so they'll both retain value when mpg is the only consideration. Batteries needing replacement, decreased performance/economy, expensive electrical controls in need of replacement, all will have a more profound impact when comparing the two.
Being an optomist certainly serves no purpose when considering resale value. It's widely known how well diesels hold their values. It's very unlikely that the hybrids will hold their value better. Which leaves worse or equal as the only possibilities in regards to resale.
A new and superior form of transportation or gas prices dropping through the floor would be the only way diesels (and possibly hybrids if they turn out not to be white elephants) would lose value at a historically higher rate.
The "fuel savings" only mindset intentionally ignores the other factors.
To be able to achieve the same MPG, yet offer more power, in a bigger, that is significantly, safer, and dramatically is new.
That was not possible in 1978. In fact, only Toyota has been able to achieve that by 2004. That other automakers still cannot. Even Honda falls short.
JOHN
Making claims about diesel without supplying data to support that doesn't either.
And that's also true of making claims about component replacement requirements without any data. Ignoring the reality that diesel vehicles have a transmission that will wear... A full hybrid does not even have a transmission (nothing ever shifts). And both have electrical components... a diesel is loaded with them too, so why are those counted? A diesel may not have a motor, but it makes no difference anyway... since AC-Brushless motors work can work for several decades without any maintenance at all.
Clearly, objectivity has been lost.
Let me know when you have actual data available.
The engineering facts and preliminary data contradict those reliability claims. A full hybrid is designed better than you care to admit.
JOHN
Just out curiosity, do turbos need to be rebuilt on the TDIs like they do on other turbo cars? I know that with my 1.8T, I was expecting to have to have the turbo rebuilt at anywhere from 125-180K miles for a cost of around 2K. That is pretty in line with my past experience with Saab turbos.
Perhaps you could point out what "claims without data" I have provided?
There's plenty of data available for the diesels. It's the data for the Hybrids that is lacking and the point of all my posts today. We basically have nothing available to determine whether or not these vehicles will be worth $1.50 or a reasonable amount of money on the tail end.
Theoretically, a diesel turbo should not need to be rebuilt for many many miles. I've seen llight-duty diesels with well over 200k,300k,500k miles and no turbo issues. Most OTR trucks will go 1 million miles without turbo issues. The turbo on a diesel is a much lower boost unit than found on a gasser.
I have seen a couple TDI turbos need replaced, both were at rather low mileage and were likely manufacturing defects. Driving habits will also effect turbo longevity. Worst thing you can do to a diesel is putz along slowly in a high gear. I've seen many other turbos replaced on the TDI's however I'm of the opinion that these were not necessary because the cars magically had other issues after the turbo was replaced. Running at highway speeds is the best thing for them which reinforces my opinion that those (such as myself) that drive a lot of high speed driving are well suited for the diesel.
And despite my numerous requests, it still hasn't been provided. Why?
JOHN
What you forget is the paragraph right above the one for "Top 10 Best Residual Value".....the one where the Prius had a Residual Value of ~39%....as quoted by Edmunds. Allow me to refresh...
"04 Prius $9566 (TCP=$24,536) Retained Value=~39%
04 Civic Hybrid $9254 (TCP=$21,742) RV=~43%
04 Insight $8915 (TCP=$22,710) RV=~39%
04 Jetta GLS TDI 5M $9868 (TCP=$22,307) RV=~44%
04 Jetta GLS TDI 5A $10,341 (TCP=$23,446) RV=~44%"
So, apparently they do bother, and don't consider the Prius, Civic Hybrid, or Insight to be among the "Top 10 Cars With the Best Residual Value for 2004". The Jetta, Beetle, Golf and Passat all make the list and it is more than likely because of the TDI models, which hold their value better than their gas counterparts.
Example...
04 Jetta GLS TDI 5M $9868 (TCP=$22,307) RV=~44%
04 Jetta GLS TDI 5A $10,341 (TCP=$23,446) RV=~44%
04 Jetta GLS 1.8T 5M $8909 (TCP=$21,474) RV=~41%
04 Jetta GLS 2.0 4A $8895 (TCP=$20,971) RV=~42%
Anyway, just to let you know, they do bother...and apparently TDIs retain their value better than Hybrids...across the board...
And despite my numerous requests, it still hasn't been provided. Why?
JOHN
I can't find where you've ask me for any data nor have you answered my question concerning what claims I've made without data.
Here's the only question you've ask during this string of discussions lately:
And both have electrical components... a diesel is loaded with them too, so why are those counted?
Reread what I posted: I said when comparing the two.
No matter, your "retain" comment lacks the frame-of-reference we've been discussing: 150,000 miles after 8 years of use. Those numbers are for only half that distance and 3 years sooner.
JOHN
PLEASE PROVIDE LONGEVITY DATA!
Show me actual read-world numbers. Up to this point, all we have been provided with is claims, no data. You can slam-dunk this with references to detail.
JOHN
John,
I'm just providing you with hard data provided by industry experts. Data that you can go and find yourself....right there in black and white....since that is what you are always asking for. I'm sorry that you don't find the 5 year mark important, but apparently, Edmunds does....and I'm also sorry that you feel that data provided by industry experts is not relevant (because it doesn't put hybrids on top).....even though providing data is what their business is all about..and has been since 1966....
We were discussing the value at 150,000 miles after 8 years of use.
JOHN
And that data shows that the TDI models retain their value better than the Hybrids.
I'm sorry that the data does not favor the Hybrids, but that is the data....you asked for data, I gave you data, data that you can go and find, but once again.....since that data doesn't favor hybrids, it's not good enough for you.....I even gathered data on the automatics..
PLEASE PROVIDE LONGEVITY DATA!
Show me actual read-world numbers. Up to this point, all we have been provided with is claims, no data. You can slam-dunk this with references to detail.
JOHN
Looks like my well written response was lost in the programmers ball.
I don't have time to re type my entire post today, heading off for the weekend. Here's a link to a JD Powers Study. Notice the next to the last paragraph, interesting stuff.
http://dieselforum.org/resources/JD0704.pdf
My lost post in a nutshell: I'm not sure you'll see a scientific study comparing real world diesels vs anything else. Just like we really don't have much real world data that toyota's last longer or better than anything else, although that's generally accepted. The way a diesel is built should be proof enough that it will last a very long time. Anyone that's stuck their head under the hood of a vehicle and has experience around diesels knows how long they last. Granted, some folks aren't able to comprehend anything without a piece of scientific data attached. IMHO, the resale value alone is adequate proof that the general buying public accepts that diesels have better longevity. I sold my '92 V6 Camry was 6 years old and had 200k miles when I sold it for $2200. That was about 11% of what I paid for it. You routinely see 200k mile diesels selling for 25%-35% of their new value. Is it because they get great mpg? Partially, but there's alot of old small cars that could return very close to the mpg. I think it's because folks aren't worried about replacing a very expensive part, like say the motor! A high mileage diesel with a manual tranny is quite a valuable unit.
As for that article, I give it a *POOR* for clarity. It is very very very misleading. This quote says it all, "Owners of hybrid vehicles report more than twice as many engine problems as do owners of comparable gasoline-powered vehicles."
It makes absolutely no effort whatsoever to explain what the heck a "problem" is.
Large numbers of new Prius owners report the engine warning light coming, due to excess sealant in the exhaust system that burns off during the first few hundreds miles. They don't realize it is a normal process that requires no maintenance at all, though.
A number of new Prius owners will also report the engine warning that gets triggered when the gas cap is not twisted on tight enough. Again, no actual maintenance is needed.
No repair was necessary for either, yet they are still counted as something the service people had to respond to. That's wrong.
And to make matters even worse, a significant number of Prius owners (old & new) are complaining to their dealers about oil overfill. This is a problem in all vehicles. But since Prius is the only car with a Multi-Display screen informing you that performance is degraded, it gets noticed. It doesn't in any other vehicle. So naturally, when the owner complains it gets tallied as a "problem" with the engine.
Obviously, these factors are grossly inflating the statistics, making them appear far more numerous than they actually are.
In reality, the reliability is Prius ranks right up near the top. Very few have geniune problems.
JOHN
I don't think anybody is in doubt about the longevity and resale value of diesels, are we ?
"
But, the Prius owner had to take time out of their schedule to take their vehicle to the dealership to have the Service Manager tell them, "Oh, there is nothing actually wrong with the vehicle, we just tightened your fuel tank cap."
The Prius owners time has to be worth something, so I really don't think that it is wrong that is gets reported as a service issue. The owner still had to call the dealership, make the appointment (and what owner wouldn't take their vehicle in when the "check engine" light displays?), take the vehicle in for the appointment, and the service personnel still had to check the vehicle over (even if it is just hooking it up to a code computer and walking back to tighten the fuel cap). There is alot of time that has been used to accomplish these tasks, and everybody's time is worth something. So no, it is not wrong to report it as an incident, when the vehicle was taken in for service (even though actual "repair" occured).
I'm sure that diesel vehicles are taken in frequently when no repair is required as well.
For the 2004 model year in the United States, combined diesel sales of Golf, Jetta, Beetle, Passat, and Touareg will only total 34,000. That's it!
For Prius in the US, sales will come to 47,000.
JOHN
If the Prius is so smart why doesn't it tell the owner on that fancy readout that the gas cap is loose? We have had door ajar & seatbelt readouts for years. I would think after 8 years of production they would have simple things like that ironed out. It wastes the owner and the dealers time.
Toyota intentionally restrained the interface.
They did not want to intimidate those that fear technology. So they are taking baby steps. Each interation of Prius (we are now on third generation) introduces improved features.
Remember, HSD is intended to be the new standard by the end of the decade. So Toyota is testing the waters to find out how much is too much.
Just look at the way people freak out about the rear skirts on Insight. Despite the obvious MPG improvement they provide, it is simply too radical of a look for the average joe still.
JOHN