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Comments
Look at the Quest, Altima, and Murano. Hard to believe they're all on the same platform and share the same basic engine.
And all are competitive entries in their class, too. They don't look, feel, or drive anything like one another.
I'd like the see a new Rendezvous, not just an engine but a full update.
-juice
but just because doens't mean they should not put resources into the van segment.
Nissan van is far from the best looking. It's unique yes.
It might have required a big investment and a clean sheet design to compete with those heavy hitters.
-juice
Saw in the paper today they are now offering 04 short wheel base models for C$19995 (about U$15K) fairly well equipped. Can't see how they can be making any money on these things. GM is right not to invest much in this biz unless it goes whole hog and even then... Seems to me the recent concentration in cars (Cobalt and Malibu) and Cadillac are a much better idea give limited resources.
What will more likely happen is that GM will loose share on these vans and then use that to justify the low initial investment, saying, "See? We were right not to spend a lot as these things just don't sell."
Isn't this the story of the domestic sedan? The automakers transferred investment and development dollars to more profitable SUV's only to loose gobs of marketshare with sedans, and now find themselves having to scramble and retool only to try to build themselves back up to where they were before. Ford is just about to make the same mistake with its Focus that GM is making with the new vans.
-Bret
GM will sell around 180k fwd mini-vans this year. The single factory that makes mini-vans has capacity around 240k. Forbes and Morningstar both suggest GM could sell around 200 to 230k of the new vans per year.
That is about 20% of a stagnant market. Not bad, not great. In the meantime, GM is putting its investment dollars in growing US markets such as luxury and sedans, and in the rapidly expanding Asia-Pacific markets. All in all, I would say it was an intelligent use of r&d money.
I think new vans could pick up sales but I'm not sure the numbers will be as high as the analyst says.
Chevrolet Uplander: 45,000 vans
Buick Terraza: 15,000 vans
Pontiac Montana SV6: 30,000 vans
Saturn Relay: 30,000 vans
The reason for a small number of Terraza vans is because not that many people are willing to drop $39K on a minivan that dates to 1997. Heck, not many people are willing to drop $40K on a freshly redesigned Sienna XLE Limited AWD. For $40K, many people would much rather have an SUV, whether that be an RX330, MDX, or whatever they chose to buy.
Some families do in fact have money to throw around. Most do not.
The Japanese mini-vans when loaded are well into the 30s. That is DINK vehicle price levels. And DINKS do not buy mini-vans.
Chrysler will continue to dominate. GM will maintain its second place position. The rest will fall somewhere after.
*Plus, I don't know why people on this board are saying "GM will dominate the market!" . Ahem, no they won't. The GM vans WILL sell though. When you look inside of the new GM vans, it doesn't seem very intuitive. No new innovative features here! Quests are selling because they have the SkyView roof, unique styling, award-winning V6, and flat folding second row buckets. Siennas are selling because they have been called "minivan for 2004" almost everywhere, they've got a great V6, split-folding third row, and it's a Toyota!
Now for the GM vans. Nice, but nothing new with something old. The current GM vans have their own version of flat-folding third-row seats. Instead of rolling backwards into the "ditch" they fold forward. Simple! The only problem is that it causes the load floor to raise about 2 inches or so. Also, DC revamped their minivans for 05 with the first-in-class split-folding third-row seat w/ tailgating and second-row tumbling-into-floor seats. GM also said that their minivans are going to be the first with the "rail-design" up top (where storage and the DVD screen goes). Hmm, well DC has that in their 05 minivans too! (I think either GM copied DC or DC copied GM LOL). GM is going to need more features for 06!
Can't you picture the brand managers saying, "See? We've got every base covered. We have luxury themed vans, sport themed vans, import themed vans, and we had to spend almost nothing to do it!" The same manager will be saying in 6 months, "I don't understand why they're not selling. I mean, we offered everything to everyone! How is Toyota selling so many of just one model that's 10,000 dollars more than our vans?" Meanwhile, he or she wouldn't have read the scathing reviews blasting the "badge engineering" or the inevitable comparison tests where these vans will come in last behind Honda, Toyota, Chrysler, Nissan, and possibly even Ford and Mazda, if only because they don't have any of the seating options of their competitors and secondarily because they won't be as refined as their already existing competitors (not to mention what will be out in 2005 or 2006). They'll probably blame this on auto media "bias."
Oh, according to what I have read in the trade press, it isn't the price holding down sales of the Sienna, but supply. I've seen tons on them on the road around here, and two people I know who have them are telling anyone in earshot how much they love them.
-Bret
Just look at the raw sales numbers and see. Don't make proclamations like "minivans are dying off", without checking facts.
It may be that minivans return to increasing sales volumes as (a) SUV customers see better choices among the minivans, or (b) manufacturers spice up minivans as SUVs can't (or won't) be spiced up.
Honda has something like 600 dealers. I bet GM will have well more than double that amount, and might sell less overall.
-juice
"minivan sales have dropped more than 235,000 units over the same two-year period"
source : JD Power
That's more than 1% in 2 years.. sales are definitely sliding.
GM and Ford are not segment leaders but at least both have freshened vans this year, and Honda's is due next.
I think the segment will gain maybe half of that back over the next year or so, and that's a conservative estimate.
-juice
First of all, it is simply not true that GM is losing money making the vans. It is probably more break even. If sales increase from the roughly 180k per year projected, GM will actually make money, incentives figured.
Second, GM does not need the mini-van factory for other models. GM does need to keep it open for UAW reasons.
Finally, what few articles I have read about the GM mini-vans is fairly positive. To an Edmunds poster, pre-disposed against GM, they are detriments to the brand. The non-biased public thinks of them as neutral.
Given the general decline of mini-van image among the public, neutral is not a problem, imo.
Auto designers are in tune with the design community as a whole. SteelCase's design facility is in Michigan, near both GM and Chrysler.
Rather than stealing from one another, I suspect both GM and Chrysler simply looked at their office furniture and asked why not in a mini-van?
No one seems to be able to answer this. Is it Honda? Chrysler? Ford? I just can't imagine why the GM vans would be the winners in a stagnant market.
Across the board, the others will give up roughly equal amounts of share.
-juice
Chryslers 243,645
Honda 142,982
GM 135,904
Ford 121,536
Toyota 91,650
Kia 46,318
Nissan 19,375
(Don't know why Mazda is not there, could it be in the Ford Total?)
Also I believe GM has around 8,500 dealers. So maybe a bunch might be truck or Cadillac only. So 8,000 might be selling one or more versions of the new vans.
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret
All companies sell to fleets. I have seen Siennas with Discount car rental stickers several times. GM more likely but not more than Chrysler.
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret
Ahem, don't you tell everyone on the Malibu board how perfect your new Malibu is compared to the Accord, 6, Altima, and Camry??? hmm....
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret
CHEVY VENTURES SELLING FOR 16K. NEW. BOATLOADS SITTING IN DEALER LOTS.
PEOPLE ON WAITING LISTS TO PAY 30-NEAR40K FOR SIENNAS.
One of my best friends went van shopping around t'giving. Wanted the Sienna, but couldn't wait. Dropped 33k on a new Odyssey with sunroof installed instead. The new GM (and Ford) vans don't represent in a significant way 'keeping up' with the hot product.
So they may sell in volume, as they are in stock, but if its not a 'gotta have' then you gotta cut price and profits to do it. I thought I read where Toyota was gearing for as much as 200k annual sales for the Sienna. If they can do that, that will cannibalize a lot of 'other less desirable' brands.
"GM does need to keep it open for UAW reasons."
Oh yeah, that benefits the customer.
Logic, is that gig in GM PR still paying quite well? Can I get in on that. For a certain amount of annual jing, even I could extoll the virtues of mid-pack products and pushrods.......
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret