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Nissan used the VQ 3.5l engine and the Altima's FM platform as a basis, but you'd never know it. I think they did a great job distinguishing their models.
Look at the Quest, Altima, and Murano. Hard to believe they're all on the same platform and share the same basic engine.
And all are competitive entries in their class, too. They don't look, feel, or drive anything like one another.
I'd like the see a new Rendezvous, not just an engine but a full update.
I think the DCX vans look best for sure. Modern looking with out being ugly or dull.
Saw in the paper today they are now offering 04 short wheel base models for C$19995 (about U$15K) fairly well equipped. Can't see how they can be making any money on these things. GM is right not to invest much in this biz unless it goes whole hog and even then... Seems to me the recent concentration in cars (Cobalt and Malibu) and Cadillac are a much better idea give limited resources.
To those saying that SUV's make more, so GM should spend it's cash there, I remind you of that old phrase, "you need to spend money to make money." If GM has 10% of so of the minivan market, I can promise you these vans won't increase it as fully redone models hit the market from other makers.
What will more likely happen is that GM will loose share on these vans and then use that to justify the low initial investment, saying, "See? We were right not to spend a lot as these things just don't sell."
Isn't this the story of the domestic sedan? The automakers transferred investment and development dollars to more profitable SUV's only to loose gobs of marketshare with sedans, and now find themselves having to scramble and retool only to try to build themselves back up to where they were before. Ford is just about to make the same mistake with its Focus that GM is making with the new vans.
Minivan market is still shrinking and has been for years. Plan seems to be to try and hold market share with a refresh. If I had limited resources, I would invest where volumes and profits are high. Part of the reason Chrysler is getting killed in profits is the minivan market is shrinking.
vans will provide a modest increase in market share for GM.
GM will sell around 180k fwd mini-vans this year. The single factory that makes mini-vans has capacity around 240k. Forbes and Morningstar both suggest GM could sell around 200 to 230k of the new vans per year.
That is about 20% of a stagnant market. Not bad, not great. In the meantime, GM is putting its investment dollars in growing US markets such as luxury and sedans, and in the rapidly expanding Asia-Pacific markets. All in all, I would say it was an intelligent use of r&d money.
What line of minivans is going to lose market share to the GM vans? I just can't picture Honda, Toyota, DC, Mazda or even Ford losing anything to these warmed over vans.
will not make a big impact on the market. Remember that these vans have no new feature that isn't found on any other 2004-05 minivan. I still think that the Sienna is going to continue to be the segment champ and outsell its competitors.
The reason for a small number of Terraza vans is because not that many people are willing to drop $39K on a minivan that dates to 1997. Heck, not many people are willing to drop $40K on a freshly redesigned Sienna XLE Limited AWD. For $40K, many people would much rather have an SUV, whether that be an RX330, MDX, or whatever they chose to buy.
It escapes me how some people think it's an intelligent use of resources to warm over the existing vans, stick on fake and homely looking SUV grilles, and call them new. If the market is stagnant,you have an uncompetitive product, and you are losing money on it due to massive incentive costs,why continue to produce it? Get out of the minivan market entirely and retool the factory for a potentially profitable vehicle, another crossover, SUV, hybrid, or something else innovative that improves brand image. Honda has very few models in their lineup. But they are all top notch. They have no trucks yet, but could easily slap together something just so their dealers could have one. Instead they'll wait until the resources are available to produce a good one. It's the same philosophy at Toyota and Nissan. They don't make something just to say they have one. It's all about brand image and reputation. Very important concepts that still seem to be lost on GM and Ford.
Check sales figures for minivans and you'll find GM is not in second place and has not been for many many years. Honda and Ford outsell GM and Toyota and Nissan will also if they decide to ramp up plant capacity.
but when you want a well-equipped GM van it will probably rise also to the 30s, maybe 29 or so. But people are willing to pay that price when they sit inside the foreign minivans. Everyone would love to own a Honda, Toyota, or Nissan because they know that it will last them.
*Plus, I don't know why people on this board are saying "GM will dominate the market!" . Ahem, no they won't. The GM vans WILL sell though. When you look inside of the new GM vans, it doesn't seem very intuitive. No new innovative features here! Quests are selling because they have the SkyView roof, unique styling, award-winning V6, and flat folding second row buckets. Siennas are selling because they have been called "minivan for 2004" almost everywhere, they've got a great V6, split-folding third row, and it's a Toyota!
Now for the GM vans. Nice, but nothing new with something old. The current GM vans have their own version of flat-folding third-row seats. Instead of rolling backwards into the "ditch" they fold forward. Simple! The only problem is that it causes the load floor to raise about 2 inches or so. Also, DC revamped their minivans for 05 with the first-in-class split-folding third-row seat w/ tailgating and second-row tumbling-into-floor seats. GM also said that their minivans are going to be the first with the "rail-design" up top (where storage and the DVD screen goes). Hmm, well DC has that in their 05 minivans too! (I think either GM copied DC or DC copied GM LOL). GM is going to need more features for 06!
Spartanmann and regfootball have the right idea. Refreshing these old vans does nothing for these brand's images with the public and reinforces the idea that the domestic brands just make rental-car quality machinery. Why wouldn't they want best in class models of all varieties rather than a dollar store mentality of just flooding the market with mediocre, minimally differentiated product just to make sure they have each niche "covered."
Can't you picture the brand managers saying, "See? We've got every base covered. We have luxury themed vans, sport themed vans, import themed vans, and we had to spend almost nothing to do it!" The same manager will be saying in 6 months, "I don't understand why they're not selling. I mean, we offered everything to everyone! How is Toyota selling so many of just one model that's 10,000 dollars more than our vans?" Meanwhile, he or she wouldn't have read the scathing reviews blasting the "badge engineering" or the inevitable comparison tests where these vans will come in last behind Honda, Toyota, Chrysler, Nissan, and possibly even Ford and Mazda, if only because they don't have any of the seating options of their competitors and secondarily because they won't be as refined as their already existing competitors (not to mention what will be out in 2005 or 2006). They'll probably blame this on auto media "bias."
Oh, according to what I have read in the trade press, it isn't the price holding down sales of the Sienna, but supply. I've seen tons on them on the road around here, and two people I know who have them are telling anyone in earshot how much they love them.
Minivans are selling OK, not "dying off" as some think. Full size SUV's, that the "experts" think are replacing them, don't get the same MPG and are more expensive to own for the average family.
Just look at the raw sales numbers and see. Don't make proclamations like "minivans are dying off", without checking facts.
That was said of the station wagon. But people have rediscovered them, if only because manufacturers have spiced them up as "sport wagons."
It may be that minivans return to increasing sales volumes as (a) SUV customers see better choices among the minivans, or (b) manufacturers spice up minivans as SUVs can't (or won't) be spiced up.
That drop was before a lot of major innovations arrived. Didn't the Sienna launch right after those numbers? Now look at the DCX seats where both rows fold, you can expect a bump in sales from that.
GM and Ford are not segment leaders but at least both have freshened vans this year, and Honda's is due next.
I think the segment will gain maybe half of that back over the next year or so, and that's a conservative estimate.
You do not understand the market or the profit situation.
First of all, it is simply not true that GM is losing money making the vans. It is probably more break even. If sales increase from the roughly 180k per year projected, GM will actually make money, incentives figured.
Second, GM does not need the mini-van factory for other models. GM does need to keep it open for UAW reasons.
Finally, what few articles I have read about the GM mini-vans is fairly positive. To an Edmunds poster, pre-disposed against GM, they are detriments to the brand. The non-biased public thinks of them as neutral.
Given the general decline of mini-van image among the public, neutral is not a problem, imo.
As I stated far above, the rail concept used on the GM vans and the DC vans has been around for a few years in high end corporate office structures by companies like SteelCase and Knoll.
Auto designers are in tune with the design community as a whole. SteelCase's design facility is in Michigan, near both GM and Chrysler.
Rather than stealing from one another, I suspect both GM and Chrysler simply looked at their office furniture and asked why not in a mini-van?
Lets assume that minivans sales remain even for the next few years. If we accept that as fact and also assume that GM sales increase as predicted, then which vans lose sales to the new GM offerings?
No one seems to be able to answer this. Is it Honda? Chrysler? Ford? I just can't imagine why the GM vans would be the winners in a stagnant market.
I, along with several market analysts, think GM can increase market share on the basis of price - new families tend not to have a very fixed budget - and that it will now offer vans through two more brands- Saturn and Buick.
Sales thorugh November (Forbes) Chryslers 243,645 Honda 142,982 GM 135,904 Ford 121,536 Toyota 91,650 Kia 46,318 Nissan 19,375 (Don't know why Mazda is not there, could it be in the Ford Total?)
Also I believe GM has around 8,500 dealers. So maybe a bunch might be truck or Cadillac only. So 8,000 might be selling one or more versions of the new vans.
Sales breakdown: Interesting numbers. Now what I want to see are numbers of sales to *customers*, *not* to fleets (I see Ventures all around here that my power and cable companies use... Those are in the above sales numbers). I don't see many fleet Odyssey models trundling around...
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
Current vans are not bad at all and they are pretty attractively priced with incentives. My favorite is the short wheel base Montana with alloys which looks very sporty (for a van).
All companies sell to fleets. I have seen Siennas with Discount car rental stickers several times. GM more likely but not more than Chrysler.
Sales breakdown: Interesting numbers. Now what I want to see are numbers of sales to *customers*, *not* to fleets (I see Ventures all around here that my power and cable companies use... Those are in the above sales numbers). I don't see many fleet Odyssey models trundling around...
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
Also, someone else said today that the new Odyssey is due out in a year. Well, that IS true meaning that the GM vans will have even more competition. When the current GM vans came out, they had nothing special to make them segment leaders. The DC vans offered more power, period. The next GM vans also have nothing special to make them segment leaders, again! The second-generation Odyssey came out at the same time and BOOM - sliding second row seats, a third row that folds backwards, a 200+HP V6, and then they continued to improve. The new Odyssey (ASM Concept) has sporty styling, an improved V6 (probably 260-270HP), more ingenious features, and better build quality than the GM vans. Like everyone else, I too am saying that GM didn't raise the bar this time...
Which brand of minivan is going to give up market share to the new GM offerings? I know WHY you think GM is going to increase market share, but WHO do you think will lose market share to the new GM vans?
In NYC they are using Odys as taxi's and they are very previlent. That's some serious "trundling" about the city streets for a fleet model. They look pretty awful in that beautiful shade of yellow.
Sales breakdown: Interesting numbers. Now what I want to see are numbers of sales to *customers*, *not* to fleets (I see Ventures all around here that my power and cable companies use... Those are in the above sales numbers). I don't see many fleet Odyssey models trundling around...
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
"Support for your claim on Toyota's Sienna profits?"
CHEVY VENTURES SELLING FOR 16K. NEW. BOATLOADS SITTING IN DEALER LOTS.
PEOPLE ON WAITING LISTS TO PAY 30-NEAR40K FOR SIENNAS.
One of my best friends went van shopping around t'giving. Wanted the Sienna, but couldn't wait. Dropped 33k on a new Odyssey with sunroof installed instead. The new GM (and Ford) vans don't represent in a significant way 'keeping up' with the hot product.
So they may sell in volume, as they are in stock, but if its not a 'gotta have' then you gotta cut price and profits to do it. I thought I read where Toyota was gearing for as much as 200k annual sales for the Sienna. If they can do that, that will cannibalize a lot of 'other less desirable' brands.
"GM does need to keep it open for UAW reasons."
Oh yeah, that benefits the customer.
Logic, is that gig in GM PR still paying quite well? Can I get in on that. For a certain amount of annual jing, even I could extoll the virtues of mid-pack products and pushrods.......
I think that why van prices have moved into the $30K range is the addition of the new features. But buyers won't hesitate dropping $35,423 on a Sienna, Quest or Odyssey, whereas buyers will hesitate with $31,154 on an Uplander. Why? Think dependability and those things Detroit has little problems with. (resale is a good starting point)
Sales breakdown: Interesting numbers. Now what I want to see are numbers of sales to *customers*, *not* to fleets (I see Ventures all around here that my power and cable companies use... Those are in the above sales numbers). I don't see many fleet Odyssey models trundling around...
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
Comments
Look at the Quest, Altima, and Murano. Hard to believe they're all on the same platform and share the same basic engine.
And all are competitive entries in their class, too. They don't look, feel, or drive anything like one another.
I'd like the see a new Rendezvous, not just an engine but a full update.
-juice
but just because doens't mean they should not put resources into the van segment.
Nissan van is far from the best looking. It's unique yes.
It might have required a big investment and a clean sheet design to compete with those heavy hitters.
-juice
Saw in the paper today they are now offering 04 short wheel base models for C$19995 (about U$15K) fairly well equipped. Can't see how they can be making any money on these things. GM is right not to invest much in this biz unless it goes whole hog and even then... Seems to me the recent concentration in cars (Cobalt and Malibu) and Cadillac are a much better idea give limited resources.
What will more likely happen is that GM will loose share on these vans and then use that to justify the low initial investment, saying, "See? We were right not to spend a lot as these things just don't sell."
Isn't this the story of the domestic sedan? The automakers transferred investment and development dollars to more profitable SUV's only to loose gobs of marketshare with sedans, and now find themselves having to scramble and retool only to try to build themselves back up to where they were before. Ford is just about to make the same mistake with its Focus that GM is making with the new vans.
-Bret
GM will sell around 180k fwd mini-vans this year. The single factory that makes mini-vans has capacity around 240k. Forbes and Morningstar both suggest GM could sell around 200 to 230k of the new vans per year.
That is about 20% of a stagnant market. Not bad, not great. In the meantime, GM is putting its investment dollars in growing US markets such as luxury and sedans, and in the rapidly expanding Asia-Pacific markets. All in all, I would say it was an intelligent use of r&d money.
I think new vans could pick up sales but I'm not sure the numbers will be as high as the analyst says.
Chevrolet Uplander: 45,000 vans
Buick Terraza: 15,000 vans
Pontiac Montana SV6: 30,000 vans
Saturn Relay: 30,000 vans
The reason for a small number of Terraza vans is because not that many people are willing to drop $39K on a minivan that dates to 1997. Heck, not many people are willing to drop $40K on a freshly redesigned Sienna XLE Limited AWD. For $40K, many people would much rather have an SUV, whether that be an RX330, MDX, or whatever they chose to buy.
Some families do in fact have money to throw around. Most do not.
The Japanese mini-vans when loaded are well into the 30s. That is DINK vehicle price levels. And DINKS do not buy mini-vans.
Chrysler will continue to dominate. GM will maintain its second place position. The rest will fall somewhere after.
*Plus, I don't know why people on this board are saying "GM will dominate the market!" . Ahem, no they won't. The GM vans WILL sell though. When you look inside of the new GM vans, it doesn't seem very intuitive. No new innovative features here! Quests are selling because they have the SkyView roof, unique styling, award-winning V6, and flat folding second row buckets. Siennas are selling because they have been called "minivan for 2004" almost everywhere, they've got a great V6, split-folding third row, and it's a Toyota!
Now for the GM vans. Nice, but nothing new with something old. The current GM vans have their own version of flat-folding third-row seats. Instead of rolling backwards into the "ditch" they fold forward. Simple! The only problem is that it causes the load floor to raise about 2 inches or so. Also, DC revamped their minivans for 05 with the first-in-class split-folding third-row seat w/ tailgating and second-row tumbling-into-floor seats. GM also said that their minivans are going to be the first with the "rail-design" up top (where storage and the DVD screen goes). Hmm, well DC has that in their 05 minivans too! (I think either GM copied DC or DC copied GM LOL). GM is going to need more features for 06!
Can't you picture the brand managers saying, "See? We've got every base covered. We have luxury themed vans, sport themed vans, import themed vans, and we had to spend almost nothing to do it!" The same manager will be saying in 6 months, "I don't understand why they're not selling. I mean, we offered everything to everyone! How is Toyota selling so many of just one model that's 10,000 dollars more than our vans?" Meanwhile, he or she wouldn't have read the scathing reviews blasting the "badge engineering" or the inevitable comparison tests where these vans will come in last behind Honda, Toyota, Chrysler, Nissan, and possibly even Ford and Mazda, if only because they don't have any of the seating options of their competitors and secondarily because they won't be as refined as their already existing competitors (not to mention what will be out in 2005 or 2006). They'll probably blame this on auto media "bias."
Oh, according to what I have read in the trade press, it isn't the price holding down sales of the Sienna, but supply. I've seen tons on them on the road around here, and two people I know who have them are telling anyone in earshot how much they love them.
-Bret
Just look at the raw sales numbers and see. Don't make proclamations like "minivans are dying off", without checking facts.
It may be that minivans return to increasing sales volumes as (a) SUV customers see better choices among the minivans, or (b) manufacturers spice up minivans as SUVs can't (or won't) be spiced up.
Honda has something like 600 dealers. I bet GM will have well more than double that amount, and might sell less overall.
-juice
"minivan sales have dropped more than 235,000 units over the same two-year period"
source : JD Power
That's more than 1% in 2 years.. sales are definitely sliding.
GM and Ford are not segment leaders but at least both have freshened vans this year, and Honda's is due next.
I think the segment will gain maybe half of that back over the next year or so, and that's a conservative estimate.
-juice
First of all, it is simply not true that GM is losing money making the vans. It is probably more break even. If sales increase from the roughly 180k per year projected, GM will actually make money, incentives figured.
Second, GM does not need the mini-van factory for other models. GM does need to keep it open for UAW reasons.
Finally, what few articles I have read about the GM mini-vans is fairly positive. To an Edmunds poster, pre-disposed against GM, they are detriments to the brand. The non-biased public thinks of them as neutral.
Given the general decline of mini-van image among the public, neutral is not a problem, imo.
Auto designers are in tune with the design community as a whole. SteelCase's design facility is in Michigan, near both GM and Chrysler.
Rather than stealing from one another, I suspect both GM and Chrysler simply looked at their office furniture and asked why not in a mini-van?
No one seems to be able to answer this. Is it Honda? Chrysler? Ford? I just can't imagine why the GM vans would be the winners in a stagnant market.
Across the board, the others will give up roughly equal amounts of share.
-juice
Chryslers 243,645
Honda 142,982
GM 135,904
Ford 121,536
Toyota 91,650
Kia 46,318
Nissan 19,375
(Don't know why Mazda is not there, could it be in the Ford Total?)
Also I believe GM has around 8,500 dealers. So maybe a bunch might be truck or Cadillac only. So 8,000 might be selling one or more versions of the new vans.
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret
All companies sell to fleets. I have seen Siennas with Discount car rental stickers several times. GM more likely but not more than Chrysler.
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret
Ahem, don't you tell everyone on the Malibu board how perfect your new Malibu is compared to the Accord, 6, Altima, and Camry??? hmm....
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret
CHEVY VENTURES SELLING FOR 16K. NEW. BOATLOADS SITTING IN DEALER LOTS.
PEOPLE ON WAITING LISTS TO PAY 30-NEAR40K FOR SIENNAS.
One of my best friends went van shopping around t'giving. Wanted the Sienna, but couldn't wait. Dropped 33k on a new Odyssey with sunroof installed instead. The new GM (and Ford) vans don't represent in a significant way 'keeping up' with the hot product.
So they may sell in volume, as they are in stock, but if its not a 'gotta have' then you gotta cut price and profits to do it. I thought I read where Toyota was gearing for as much as 200k annual sales for the Sienna. If they can do that, that will cannibalize a lot of 'other less desirable' brands.
"GM does need to keep it open for UAW reasons."
Oh yeah, that benefits the customer.
Logic, is that gig in GM PR still paying quite well? Can I get in on that. For a certain amount of annual jing, even I could extoll the virtues of mid-pack products and pushrods.......
To corsicachevy: I very much agree with you. I don't know who GM will conquest for sales. Maybe other value brands like the Kia Sedona or maybe some domestic buyers who find the Freestar's price a little high. Maybe also some folks for whom the MPV doesn't fit. I don't know. I see GM more or less maintaining share or it declining a bit...
-Bret