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Nope not much sense in that. Actually I see no sense at all in a luxury brand making any truck or SUV.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
The prices you mention are for the '06's in the last days of their lives. In other areas where competitition is not so intense the prices are well above SoCal's, even with the national $1000 rebate.
All new models hold sticker for a while then drift down and then get rebates, especially the Camry in order to hold its No 1 position over the Civic and Corolla.
Since there will only be 2-3 per store holding it's price will not be difficult IMO for the next year or two. There are 'wise buyers' who will wait some time to see if the pricing comes down as all Camry's do eventually.. but here is a curious phenomenon. The corolla is in it's last year as well and Toyota removed all incentives from it. Most sell at sticker in our region and we are sold out.. ditto Matrix ( Inventory = 6 DoS on average). The Prius is still measured in 'hours on the lot'.
4c vs TCH, why? V6 power. As I mentioned above there are buyers who will never consider a 4c anything. This trim gives the V6 buyer two choices, performance or FE.
0-60's
Gen5 3.0L V6 most found 'about 8 seconds'
TCH 2.4L Edmunds here 'under 9 seconds'
2.4L ICE to be verified but likely 'under 10 sec'
Here's a good barometer:
Gen5 3.0L vs TCH
HP... 190 vs 190
FE C/H/Comb.. 20/28/24 vs 43/37/36
0-60 .. about 8 sec vs under 9 sec
$40000 for only comfort... get outta here :P
Seriously it's why there are so many models.
Why do you think they are giving the V6 Camry away in the hottest auto market? Most buyers want the economy of the 4C. The new V6 Camry is hardly a rocket. My cousin bought a new one and leaves it in the garage. She says her 1999 Camry V6 is much more responsive & fun to drive. I spent a week in a 4C Camry rental this summer. It had enough acceleration for me. It did not handle as well as the Passat. But was nice riding. I think the only thing the TCH will have going for it is limited supply. Some people just have to buy the latest gadget. If Toyota gets their production up on the Prius as they have said they will, you will see them sitting for much longer on the lots. The Prius is a niche vehicle, that only a few find attractive.
OTOH by the time they do prove this to me an others they may decide that it's time to cash in on their improved rep and the price delta won't exist as much now.
The Sonata, especially the V6, is a very good option for some.
No one but no one will go for a Gen5 3.0L 190 hp vs the new ones here soon. The stores better dump them as fast as they can.
I plunked down $500 to order a blue Prius for my wife- who has always wanted a blue car. She doesn't like filling her Passat twice weekly for her 50 mile-a-day commute.
Before doing so, I downloaded the data of crash tests for a number of cars. Nothing small (a plus for us) has the Prius' level of safety and comfort.
As for the costs, using a Honda Accord ( approximately same degree of safety, but more space) for a base line, factoring the purchase price with fuel consumed at 18,000 miles per year, and no resale, (we keep our cars for a decade if possible) and its break even for the Prius at $2.50 a gallon.
If gas prices rise, or if you add in a $3,000 federal tax credit, and a (hoped for) $2,000 state tax credit, its no contest.
I knew that from your previous posts,
Think diesel for trucks.
I wanted a diesel truck. I could not bring myself to pay the $8000 premium when I never pull a heavy trailer.
The hybrid is only available in the extended cab. I have the 2 wheel drive. Not a lot of snow here in San Diego. I got all the extras except leather. Too hot in San Diego. Another reason I am driving the PU more than the Passat or Lexus.
A small diesel PU was my first choice. A 4C diesel Ranger would be dandy.
I wasn't talking about the Sonata, but generically.
moving out of the Hon'Yota family to Hyundai will take still a few more years of 'bulletproofness'
Ok but to be honest the Hon'Yota family has plenty of their own problems.
OTOH by the time they do prove this to me an others
While they may not have proved it to you they have proved it to others.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
This makes a lot of sense. The 3.0L V6 in your cousin's Camry is mid 90's vintage designed for the Gen4 Camrys like what she had in '99. These were much small vehicles. The new Gen5's, what she has now, are larger, wider and heavier so it makes sense that the 'old tech' V6 is bland at best.
Why keep it? Marketing and product placement. The Gen5's in 2002 were much larger and that was the Gen scheduled for a new 4c, the 2.4L. A lot of questioning is being done on the Camry board about why the 2.4L is not also being modified dramatically this year. This is the year of the V6. With a 10 yrs life cycle the v6 and 4c have a 5 year overlap, with little tweaks every 3 yrs or so. It allows marketing to keep bringing up 'freshenings' even though they may know already what the capabilities are 10 yrs down the road.
Hint: look at Lexus and see what the Camry will be in 5-10 yrs. Lexus gets cutting edge and even that has likely 5 years of 'improvements' already built in but not disclosed yet.
If I had a dime every time one group of people looked at another group of people and said "they're stupid", I'd have a heck of a lot of dimes. Logic and need have a minor role in car sales. Imagine someone buys a hybrid for $3K extra bucks to save $500/year in gas - where is the sense in that? Or someone buys a Lexus GS for $50K when a Corolla would get them to work just as well - where is the sense in that? You could go on and on.
I also shopped and waited and waited some more before pulling the trigger on the Prius back in NOV but it got me a $3000 discount that I wouldn't have gotten on a new '06.
And there still is no other vehicle that meets the criteria I wanted for myself ( listed above ). I did seriously consider waiting til summer for the new TCH but I was able to buy more FE at likely a $3-4000 discount by going with an '05 Prius.
With that in mind:
http://www.autotrader.co.uk/CARS/news/news-centre/news-template.jsp?dbid=32267
'Expensive' hybrid cars better than buses
28 February 2006
by Keith Collantine
ALMOST half of motorists expect to be powering their cars with alternative fuels within the next 15 years.
These are the findings of a survey conducted by Auto Trader with it's business publication Dealer Update.
Of the 3,000 people surveyed, 47 per cent said they are ready to take the plunge on an alternative-fuel car. 95 per cent of those who responded said they currently drive petrol or diesel-powered cars.
Initially, the Hymotion PHEV kit will cost US$9500 for a Ford Escape or Toyota Prius, and will be sold only to Government and fleet owners but with volume production driving pricing down, a target price of US$5000 is expected by the time the kit becomes available to the public 12 months from now.
http://www.businessweek.com/autos/content/mar2006/bw20060303_978539.htm?chan=aut- os_autos+index+page_news
link title
Mass production and improvements in Lithium Ion batteries will be the Holy Grail for manufacturers wanting to build hybrids that makes economic sense.
I believe the main reason Toyota bought GM's share of Subaru in order to have access to Fuji's (Subaru's parent)lithium ion technololgy.
Blunder in Hybrid Car versus All-gas Car Cost Comparison by Consumer Reports
It is too bad that after doing a good job of estimating the cost of the various individual factors in owning a hybrid car and an all-gas car model, Consumer Reports (CR) made a blunder in calculating the bottom line in their related report in April 2006 issue. For example, correct calculations of the bottom line would have shown a net saving of $450 instead of an extra cost of $5250 figured by Consumer Reports for owning a Prius instead of Corolla over a 5-year period. There would have been similar differences in the other models compared by Consumer Reports.
The problem lies in the way both the difference in the purchase cost and the difference in the depreciation cost are simply added together (besides the other factors) to calculate the difference in the ownership cost.
The extra purchase price of a car is important for calculating the extra sales tax, finance cost, insurance etc, but once that has been done, only the extra depreciation (along with sales tax, finance cost etc) need to be considered in calculating the ownership cost: the difference in the purchase price must not added to that in figuring out the difference in ownership cost.
For example, using CR data for expenses over 5 years, let us say that Corolla LE depreciates by $8000 (say) from the new price of $16,607 to $8607 in 5 years. Then, the Prius will be estimated to depreciate by $11,200 ($8000 plus $3200 differential estimated by CR), resulting in decrease from new price of $22,305 to $11,105 in 5 years. The capital cost associated with the owning the cars (besides financing, sales tax etc) is only $8000 for the Corolla LE and $11,200 for the Prius for a differential of $3200 over five years. The differential in capital costs is not $8900 ($3200 plus the difference in purchase price of $5700).
Lets try some CR “Hybrid” math
Car A costs $60,000
Car B costs $15,000
Price premium = $45,000
Depreciation for Car A at 50% for 5 years = $30,000
Depreciation for Car B at 50% for 5 years = $7,500
Extra Depreciation for Car A = $22,500
Under CRs “Hybrid” math we would add the extra depreciation ($22,500) to the premium paid ($45,000) for a total of $67,500. This is wrong because it is more than the original $60,000 cost of Car A. We also know that after 5 years Car A is worth $22,500 more than Car B.
- Mark
===================
I am perplexed by the economic analysis you made in comparing the five-year life cycle costs of hybrids and non-hybrids in your April new car issue. In your analysis, you docked the hybrid cases for a "Purchase price premium" and then hit them a second time with a "Extra depreciation cost" penalty. By your analysis, a Lexus RX400h buyer is going to pay $8,800 more than a RX330 buyer initially, and then get back $6,300 less than a RX330 seller when they trade in five years from now.
This doesn't make any sense. If buyers today are willing to pay a $9K premium for a new hybrid RX, then they're likely willing to pay a premium for a used hybrid RX in five years. You quote an analysis of data from Vincentric which says hybrids are likely to depreciate at a higher rate, but I don't see how any reasonable analysis could come up with the outlandish depreciation numbers you are using for hybrids.
It appears to me that you simply "double counted" depreciation by adding together the Purchase price premimum and Extra depreciation cost, when you should really only be including the Extra depreciation cost, a basic Accounting 101 mistake.
If your analysis is true, then I'll look forward to paying about $9K for a five-year-old Lexus RX400h that sold for $48K new. That's what has to happen for your numbers to be correct.
Sincerely...
Yup and I heard they may introduce it in 10 years. By that time I will be driving my fuel-cell George Jetson spacemobile.
Why? Maybe a fellow at Edmunds knows why:
Jeremy Anwyl, president of auto industry research firm Edmunds.com, says there is "softness" among all hybrids except for the $21,000 Prius, which doesn't have a comparable non-hybrid model against which to stack a baseline price. Anwyl said sales of Toyota's SUV hybrids, based on pre-existing vehicle designs, aren't performing as well as the Prius.
Now here is my scenario. What if there was a non-hybrid version of the Prius that can be compared to the hybrid version? In that case would not the sales of a hybrid Prius be just as disappointing as other hybrids that are based on non-hybrid models?
That is one point that everyone should consider before buying a Prius.
link title
Maybe not, I can see the hybrid SUV being lackluster for two reasons. First reason is that there typically is a higher "premium" for the hybrid version and the benefits (higher gas mileage) are much less. Secondly one of the biggest segments for hybrids are people who are "environmentally friendly", and SUV's do not promote a "environmental friendly" status.
Would a non-hybrid Prius hurt Hybrid prius sales? Yes it would. would it hurt it a lot? Most likely not.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
That is one point that everyone should consider before buying a Prius.
That sure is a loooonnnng stretch. But since there is no alternative unless a buyer wants to give up something ( which is a perfectly good reason for not buying one ) the Prius stays strong. That sounds like excellent product placement on Toyota's part.
Now regarding the 'softness' in other hybrids, IMO only one or two are doing what was expected of them, the HCH and the 400h and possibly the FEH. The other two each have a basic design fault ( see below ).
the HCH seems to be a very good, capable vehicle in a beautiful new body;
the 400h is selling ~ 2000 units a month to a premium clientele;
the FEH is not Prius-strong but still it's the only 'Detroit' hybrid option;
The two that are soft are the HH and the HAH which are both linked to their respective V6's. This is bad product placement IMO. The typical HonYota buyer is not looking for wild V8 power they are looking for reliability and economy. V8 performance belongs in the Lexus and Acura stores.
Can't speak for the Highlander, but the V6 in the Accord seems to be an engineering requirement. When you add the IMA to an engine/tranny it makes the unit something like 1.5 or 2" longer. Well, the V6 is only 3 cylinders wide. The I4 is 4 cylinders wide. The I4 plus 2" apparently doesn't fit between the suspension parts in an Accord.
But I agree with you on the perception issue. Hybrid buyers aren't looking for max performance. Had Honda used that V6 IMA combination in the Acura TL, rather than the Accord, it might've been a better match. But then they would have lost any semblance of providing a hybrid for the masses.
I think the HAH is compromised by what they could do at the time. The new HCH is a much better example of integrating IMA from the ground up.
The same applies to the non-hybrid civic. Good sales of the HCH can be mainly attributable to the novelty of its introduction. We will have to wait another year to see how HCH sales hold out.
the FEH is not Prius-strong but still it's the only 'Detroit' hybrid option;
No, sales of the FEH are very weak. Please refer to the article I linked in my prior post.
the 400h is selling ~ 2000 units a month to a premium clientele;
Is it not true that the waiting lists for the Lexus 400H are beginning to evaporate?
I agree with your analysis of the HH and HAH.
And personally I like the Prius the best among all hybrids. But I will wait until the sequel version Prius3 arrives. Based on what I read so far I think this is going to become one "very exciting fuel efficient car"(pardon me if that sounds like a oxymoron)
I am hoping that once they get a few letters like this from informed people, they won't be able to just ignore these and will check with an intelligent accountant to confirm the fallacy of their logic.
If you pull the purchase price premium out of the table (which I believe is what would make the analysis valid), here are the old/incorrect and new/correct five-year hybrid net costs:
Ford Escape: $8350 >> $2050
Honda Accord: $10250 >> $4550
Honda Civic: $3700 >> ($300)
Lexus RX: $13100 >> $4300
Toyota HL: $13300 >> $6100
Toyota Prius/Corolla: $5250 >> ($450)
Note that two cases (Civic and Prius/Corolla) actually become a net cost savings for the hybrid.
I'll be fascinated to see how CR handles this. I've lost a lot of respect for the organization with this - if they can't get something really big and obvious like this right, who knows how they're screwing up their other ratings.
- Mark
Correct me if I am wrong. Isn't the main gripe with the resale values that CR has attached to the Hybrids in 5 years? If that is the case one should look at what is being offered for 5 year old Prius Classics. They are not tearing up the used car market. You would be very lucky to get $6500 for a 2001 Prius with 75k miles on it. Not many are willing to take the BIG Battery risk, including dealers. I think that is what is reflected by the CR article. Another question I have: where on the Toyota website can you find that the hybrid warranty is transferable to the second owner. Another big IF in Hybrid resale values. Not all warranties transfer on cars. Lastly, one of the big hybrid draws, is having the latest and greatest. Each new model makes that last model much less enticing. In the big picture CR may be right. Only time will tell. As a disclaimer I don't trust CR much anyway.
This is a simple math error, not a fudging of assumptions or factors. They added 2+2 and got 6.
- Mark
Auction sales are just cold cash for a hunk of iron. Edmunds TMV's on used cars here are a pretty good approximation of the auction values on most cars.
2002 Prius with 50K mi has a TMV trade in of $11500 in avg condition. This is about 50+% of the original purchase price back in 2002 of ~$22500. In general Toyota's hold about 50-55% of value after 50K miles. The Prius is no different.
4 yr depreciation @ 50K mi
Corolla LE ( $16000 new ).. ~ $9000 depr ( $7000 tradein )
Prius ( $22500 new )........ ~ $11000 depr ( $11500 tradein )
Camry LE ( $20000 new ).. ~ $11000 depr ( $9000 tradein )
There is only one depreciation number and it's the difference between the original sales market price and the current auction values. Everything else is supposition.
ON the face, it appears to be lazy analysis by the writer and editor. Not enough digging and verification - just get something into print. Or it may be intentionally slanted.
Ford Escape: $8350 >> $2050 >> $3550
Honda Accord: $10250 >> $4550 >> $5950
Honda Civic: $3700 >> ($300) >> $800
Lexus RX: $13100 >> $4300 >> $6800
Toyota HL: $13300 >> $6100 >> $7300
Toyota Prius/Corolla: $5250 >> ($450) >> $2050
I am saying that CR is wrong. You guys have looked at it the best normal accountant's way, but CR could be assuming the car will continue to be used and the difference in car market value will not be realized at the 5 year mark. Thus the greater cash outlay would be seen for hybrids if not sold at the 5 year mark for all the hybrid models.
You could only use the purchase price difference and not depreciation if the car has no value when it is sold. It would need to be very old for that to be the case.
Using CR's methodology, here are some estimates for years 6-10 for the Corolla vs. Prius:
At end of 5 years: (450)
Gas savings: (2300) (assumes same price as in yrs 1-5)
Extra insurance: 300
Extra maintenance: 300 (assumes no battery replacement)
Extra depreciation cost: ??
Net cost difference after year 10: (2150)
That is, the Prius saves $2150 over 10 years compared to the Corolla before any extra depreciation cost for years 6-10 and any battery replacement cost are factored in. CR notes that the batteries have a 150,000-180,000 mile life expectancy, so a battery replacement in the first 10 years is not a given. Also in the CAFE states, the battery is warranted for 10 years and 150k miles.
BTW, to be much more of an apples-to-apples comparison, CR should have compared the Matrix to the Prius. :P
BTW, maybe CR didn't compare the Matrix--a 5-door hatchback very similar in size to the Prius (another 5-door hatchback) because the comparison would not have been as much in favor of the ICE car. The MSRP of a Matrix XR equipped as much as possible like the Prius (automatic, alloys, ABS, cruise) is $19,220--$2600 more than a Corolla LE. Also, the mpg of the Matrix is 5 mpg less (24 vs. 29).
Consumer Reports now says it made an error when calculating the cost of owning a hybrid: Owners of the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic hybrids do save money, the magazine said today.
The new calculations show that owners of the Toyota Prius will save $400 and owners of the Honda Civic will save $300 when compared with gasoline-only counterparts. Owners of four other hybrids -- the Honda Accord, Ford Escape, Toyota Highlander and Lexus RX 400h -- will still end up spending $1,900 to $5,500 more during five years of ownership and 75,000 miles, Consumer Reports said.
CR makes errors all the time, they rarely fess up.
As hybrids become plentiful, buyers become scarce.
The "techy" crowd willing to open their pocket books for an American-made hybrid has already been satisfied, said Acton Ford President David Abatsis, based in Acton, Mass. Abatsis says consumers were initially willing to swallow the premium that is charged for a hybrid, but noted, "That group is gone." The sticker price on a hybrid is typically about $3,000 higher owing to the need for an expensive battery, specialized transaxle and sophisticated braking system.
I show the XR with VSC & SAB going for $18,388 in San Diego. The Prius with SAB & VSC has a TMV of $26,526. That is an $8138 premium. How would you ever make that up in fuel savings?
Maybe someone with access to auction prices can tell us what a 5 year old Prius is selling for, with 75k miles or more. I'm betting the Prius Classics are not holding their value as well as a Corolla from the same year.
That is correct there is great cash outlay for Explorers and ES330s. There is less for Corollas and Civics.
Extreme example: 60k vehicle worth 50k in 5 years. 15k vehicle worth 5k in 5 years. Looking at capital, the cost is the same. The cash spent in 5 years if both cars are not sold in 5 years is much higher for the the 60k vehicle (60k versus 15k). A poor person cannot afford a Lexus even if the depreciation is equal to that of a Yugo during a 5 year period (capital change in values were equal). They can't afford to make payments even though they could/would have an expensive asset sitting in the garage.
This was my point. Anyone with a calculator will not be able to justify a hybrid. It has to be the green image or in the case of Prius and HCH the benefit of the HOV lanes. I don't think the automakers will be able to cut costs enough to ever tempt mainstream buyers.
The Prius Classic is not nearly as desirable a car as the current Prius. I fail to see what 5-year-old pricing on a Prius Classic will tell us. And I fail to see the value of comparing a 5-door hatchback to a 4-door sedan. Yet another error by CR: they did not compare the most similar ICE models to the hybrid vehicles.
You are absolutely correct. The Classic is a dog next to the Prius II. And the next generation of Prius will make the Prius II obsolete. It is the nature of the car business. It is emerging technology where the ICE only cars are subtly improved the hybrids will grow by leaps and bounds, making the previous generation much less valuable.