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I also live in California. I have carefully checked with the local area dealerships and they do NOT all have an additional "gouge factor" premium, but, in fact, sell it for the exact MSRP. There is also a waiting list which varies from dealership to dealership. Depending upon where you buy it, that puts the price at thousands less than you indicated . . . which is the way it should be.
Obviously the "gouge factor" is more like an "impatience" factor, for those that have to have it "today", then they will pay the gouge penalty. When the dealers that are greedy try to unreasonably gouge us, it just tells us who to do business with and who to avoid.
The most popular hybrid (Prius) sells to wealthy customers who like the image and are concerned about the environment. They can afford a Lexus, but purchase the Prius.
Cash really isn't a factor in most hybrid purchases.
I don't doubt the importance of the technology or how "good" the Fit hybrid might be. If all that mattered we price and fuel economy, the Insight would be the best seller. All I'm asking is, will it sell? So far, the Civic has been mediocre. The Accord has not been a strong seller. The Highlander is backing up on the lots. Will the Fit sell like a Prius or an Insight?
The Highlander is a perfect example of poor hybrid marketing, and there is definately a learning curve here to determine which vehicles will sell as hybrid and which ones won't. You can't just stick a hybrid system in anything, charge a fortune, and expect it to sell, and Toyota will learn that lesson. Honda is on the right track with the '06 Civic and the upcoming Fit. The Insight is a 2-passenger impractical vehicle. The Civic seats five very comfortably and has tons of features and terrific styling. It is also fun to drive. That's a big difference. The Fit will fit the budget just fine and deliver TREMENDOUS gas mileage for a vehicle that will be so versatile. It will be a hot seller . . . just watch.
It just keeps getting better.
TagMan
That said, it probably is a safe bet that the Fit Hybrid will carry a smaller premium than something like the HCH or HAH. Maybe $2,000 rather than $3,000. But even at $2K, I think Honda may have a tough time find buyers when the regular Fit is such a bargain.
That's the point. The regular fit will be such a bargain that the extra $1650 or $2K for the hybrid will not strap a buyer. Also, the difference in a monthly payment will not be massive for those financing the vehicle. Further the mpg rating is going to be HUGE on the Fit hybrid, just watch. It will attract a LOT of buyers.
I'll make my prediction official.
IMO . . . Like it or not, not, not . . . the Fit hybrid will be HOT, HOT, HOT!
TagMan
IMO . . . Like it or not, not, not . . . the Fit hybrid will be HOT, HOT, HOT!
I will make my prediction. It will be hot for about the first 6 months or so. Then when the "I gotta have it" crowd has theirs it will die down greatly.
The Fit will be attracting a segment of the market that will be sensitive to price increases. That means the initial added costs of a hybrid system will turn most potential Fit owners away from the hybrid version. The Hybrid will attract some Fit buyers and some looking for a commuter car and a lot of the greenies/techies that cannot afford a more expensive hybrid.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Since I may replace my Echo in a year or so time, the Fit appears a viable candidate, however I won't be considering the hybrid version. In fact now it has been brought up I would wish that Honda not market their IMA system in northern climes at all. The problem is that the battery packs are not sufficiently insulated against the cold. It is a known fact that the rate of chemical reaction halves with each drop in temperature of 10 degrees C. So at freezing point the battery retention and delivery is one quarter and at -10 degress C it is one eighth of what it is at room temperature. This might explain why the HAH owners are getting 18 mpg this winter. Unlike the Prius the benefit of the IMA's assist system is dependent on the ability of the battery to supply current. In cold weather the IMA is effectively jumping ship.
Then there is the CVT (as used on the Civic/Insight) which depends on cone shaped pulleys to change their ratio. Although I can't deny Honda's precision engineering I would be interested to know what feedback element accounts for the expansion and contraction of metal components over large changes in temperature during short trips. The people who insist they have no complaints with the IMA system appear to live in (or near) Florida I've begun to notice.
Perhaps Honda hybrid owners are expected to be able to afford heated garages as well !
T2
Your statement above maybe right.
But IMO why should the Fit only cater to a financially constrained customer? Assuming the hybrid Fit achieves Insight mileage then that in itself would be an attraction to wealthy or non-wealthy greenies, techies and neo-conservatives (a group that wants less dependence on foreign oil).
Owning the highest mileage car is in itself a kind of important status symbol for the many who can be categorized as either a greenie, techie and neo-conservative.
Just like the cheap economy VW Beetle became a anti-establishment car for the wealthy and non-wealthy in the 1960s, the Honda hybrid Fit may become a cheap anti-establishment car(anti-SUV or anti-gas consumer) for this decade.
The following paragraph does make the hybrid Fit a tempting acquisition:
The newspaper said the Fit hybrid would have fuel economy comparable to that of the Honda Insight and Toyota Prius, which the auto makers advertise in Japan as getting around 35-36 km to a liter, or about 82-84 miles per gallon.
link title
Good feedback. The mpg on the hybrid version may end up to be as high as 65 - 85 mpg. Would you consider the hybrid version if you were considering to purchase the vehicle?
I would be buying a car based on its real world MPG results and not the complex technology behind those results.
Space was not an issue when my wife and children sat in the Fit. So it does serve our needs as our fuel efficient transporter and grocery hauler.
But what if a cheaply priced Fit that can accomodate a family got the same or superior mileage than the Insight. That in itself to me seems to be an accomplishment, especially since the Insight is the most fuel efficient car in North America.
Who else would buy a subcompact? Oh, I know everybody has a "millionaire next door" story about somebody who drives a Chevette when he or she could afford Boxter. But, I think we all know those individuals are a very small minority.
"Assuming the hybrid Fit achieves Insight mileage..."
Why are we making that assumption?
The gas-powered Civic is good 30-40 mpg. The Fit is good for 33-38. They average out to be about the same (35 vs 35.5).
If we assume the hybrid Fit will get the same kind of boost as the Civic, we're looking at numbers very close to the HCH. Maybe something like 50-53 mpg instead of the Civic's 49-51.
Go test drive it without driving like an old lady and see what mpg you get in real life. It will be nothing like the EPA ratings. You will get somewhere in the 20's depending upon how much city driving you do and how heavy your foot is on the gas.
My experience with Honda 4 cylinder vehicles with manual transmissions puts the mpg right on the EPA estimates. Other vehicles I have owned are usually slightly below the EPA estimates. If I get a Fit manual, I would expect 34-36 in mixed driving and 36-40 on the highway. Of course given everyone else's experience, I am sure the mpg of the hybrids of either the Civic or Fit would fall well below the EPA estimates.
Honda Backing Away from Hybrids?
Recent reports have suggested that Honda is having second thoughts about hybrid powertrains. It's fair to say that CEO Takeo Fukui isn't rushing to fill the automaker's lineup with the high-mileage technology - at least not yet. While he told TheCarConnection.com hybrids have great potential, he stressed that it will be hard to push the technology into the mainstream "unless (production) costs come down." The outspoken executive said that while they represent an ecologically-friendly alternative, "there has to also exist a good business equation," and that is hard to justify right now, Fukui said. "We'll probably have more" than the current Insight, Accord and Civic hybrids, he suggested, but when remains a question. Besides, he added, the hybrid "is not the only solution." Honda, Fukui said, is looking at a variety of other options, including ethanol and diesel powertrains, as well as hydrogen power.
Fortune certainly did do a good historical piece on the Prius. What I find most interesting is not the history of the Prius but the future of the Prius 3. It appears Toyota and Honda have very different views about hybrid technology. Contrast the following statement below with Mirth's post 4667 about Honda:
Toyota's CEO stressed that a key part of his strategy is making hybrids more affordable for consumers. "We need to improve the production engineering and develop better technology in batteries, motors, and inverters," he said. "My quest is to produce a third-generation Prius quickly and cheaply.
It appears Toyota has or will have the technology to produce economically priced hybrids in the future while Honda is not as confident. I think Honda is going to remain conservative about hybrids until they see the success of their future Hybrid Fit. IMO the hybrid Fit's success will be contingent upon how much more fuel efficient the hybrid Fit will be when compared to its non-hybrid sibling.
CR likes hybrids and recommends them even though they will never pay back the "hybrid premium".
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
Rik Paul, the magazine's automotive editor, said the study took the price of gas from $3 a gallon now to $4 a gallon five years from now. ``Still, the cost didn't add up,'' he said.-end
quote s.weasel- Some people will see a pay back, others will not. It all depends on what hybrid you buy, how many miles you drive and how long you keep it.-end
Not even if they drive it for 10 years. Not even if price of gas is $4/gallon. Not for ANY of the 6 hybrids tested.
1.) When I do the spread sheets and run the figures usually I am right.
2.) If CR says the sky is blue look to make sure.
As I said depending on the hybrid, the amount of miles driven and the time you keep the car some (not all, not most but some) will see a pay back on a hybrid. I will stand by that statement.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
* What vehicle you would have purchased if it wasn't the hybrid.
* How many of the state and federal tax incentives you qualify for--those can add up to several thousand dollars.
Also, when you buy is a factor, due to the pending expiration of the tax credits and the uncertainty if new ones will be introduced in the future.
One other - the climate where it's driven. Hybrids do not seem to do as well, relatively speaking, in extremely cold temperatures.
So essentially they are backed into a corner with the Civic and maybe the Fit.
They need to look at other options like diesel or other technology. But they have to do it fast. They can't let Toyota grab all the 'green' press.
'...won't ever...' is a long time. Some people are alreaady doing it in HCH's.
The TCH is still to be put under the microscope. But here is the key to the TCH.... the buyers who are moving from current V6 models to the new TCH will 'recoup' some cost savings immediately from day one.
A Maxima owner getting 26 mpg combined moving to the TCH will be getting ~33 mpg at the worst from day one. End of discussion, ditto a Taurus owner, Intrepid owner, Malibu owner.
I did not know the Maxima was in the Camry class of vehicle. I thought the Altima was a closer comparison. The one thing overlooked is most people buy the 4 cylinder in that class. With pricing in the very low $20k range. If the TCH ends up pushing $30k as most people believe, it will be a tough sell, after the glow wears off. Just like the RH & HH sitting on dealers lots with invoice pricing.
The Maxima, et al, owners to whom I was referring would be the late 90's and early 00's who have maxed out their present vehicles and are ready to move into something new. All of these owners have been driving for years in V6's with 175-200 hp.
To be seen but if the range is in the $26K-ish ballpark it will be another Prius situation.
Again the typical CamCord buyer will not be the one to step up to this model. They, like me, are way too frugal to buy any V6. But the current V6 drivers who think 4c's belong in lawnmowers will look at it. LOT's and lots of these buyers.
Second, even if the TCH stickers at $27k, you can get a XLE V6 Camry with Navigation, VSC, etc. that stickers at $29k for $25,900. You really think the TCH will sell at a sizeable discount or under invoice like all the other Camrys?
Third, the Accord with 2.4L 4cylinder would probably get upper 30's to low 40's on the EPA test if the HCH numbers are any indication. Yes it would probably only have about 180hp, but it would weigh far less than a TCH. Even the V6 HAH weighs less than the TCH. The handling would be far better with the Accord. There are already reviews stating how heavy and a poor handler the TCH is. Honda probably could sell it for about $24-25k to easily undercut the TCH.
Fourth, based on the Prius experience what will the TCH really get for fuel economy? The Prius seems to get about 48 which is 86% of its EPA combined mileage. That would put the TCH at about 34. Solid for the class but only about 4 mpg above the combined EPA of the 4 cylinder Accord I had for $17k. The people driving old V-6s with 175-200 hp did not have them in vehicles that weighed nearly as much as the TCH. Even in magazines the TCH did 7.9 seconds to 60 that number is the same as my Accord I4.
Lastly, just buy a 4 cylinder Camry or Accord. Save $10k, get better handling, save the earth heavy metal pollution, and the material waste of 500+ pounds. The new Camry V6 is in another class when compared to the TCH. Toyota better hope TCH buyers don't take a 268hp V6 test drive. They may not sell any TCHs.
For the foreseeable future the Camry's wont be anywhere near invoice. Possibly by the end of the year at the earliest. Just as the Prius continues to sell at sticker 3 yrs into it's life I'm pretty confident that the TCH will also if only because they only envision 50-70K units annually. That's only 3 units per store per month at full production. Most stores sell 20+ V6's every month along with 80 4c's.
Will someone opt for the TCH at $26K over the ICE XLE V6 at about the same price, absolutely on it's 'eco-friendliness' and FE alone.... especially if you're talking about only 3 vehicles a month.
Regarding the Accord, it's a dead issue. See the separate discussion elsewhere indicating Honda may withdraw from the hybrid race. The HAH is a bust and the HCH is for now their only entry ( for Honda it really is uneconomical ). Honda will never embarrass itself by making a 2.4L Hybrid Accord.
Both Toyota hybrids in wide use now get just under the HWY rating as a combined value. You are exact on the Prius being right at 48-49 mpg just under the 51 HWY EPA. The users who drive the HH correctly report FE right around 26-27 combined or again just under the HWY EPA value. I believe that proficient TCH drivers will be getting right around 36-38 combined. BTW all of these numbers are consistent in that the HSD allows a knowledgable driver to gain about 30% better FE overall. Having driven Camry's since 1989 the combined rating is 27-28 mpg. The HWY value is about 33 mpg. This is over 400,000 miles along the EC at speeds from 50-85 mph.
Why deny the person who wants V6 power along with 35-36 mpg FE? Why not give the buyers choices. They can opt for the ICE SE version for canyon carving or the HSD version for the rest of middle America that doesnt like going above 65 mph. I will be shocked if this new model isn't a raging success! As long as the pricing is mid-$20K range.
what if they did take a test in the new 3.5L.... and then bought two Camry's!!!
The HAH is a bust just like the Lexus and Highlander hybrids so far. When will Toyota just drop the Highlander and call it a lost cause? The 4 cylinder Accord Hybrid could be a sales winner although neither the TCH or a 4 cylinder Accord Hybrid make any sense at this point compared to a regular 4 cylinder Camry or Accord. At least Honda and prudent logical consumers see that reality at this point. Toyota can ride the HSD wave until consumers understand the folly, but I guess that is already happening with the non-Prius hybrids.
The premium would be the difference between the cost of the Prius and the non-hybrid that the individual would buy if the Prius didn't exist. So depending on the individual the "premium could be small or very large.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
One of the reasons that dealerships put these addendums on vehicles is that they don't want to sell them right away. These limited availability models are not replaceable in the immediate term meaning tomorrow or next week. Often a store has to wait for it's next truck next month or 6 weeks out. If one or two of a model is all a store is going to get then the store should hold on to it to allow as many potential buyers as possible to see it.
My guess from the continued strong sales of Prius' in the $26000 - 28000 range is that the new TCH will fall initially in the $27000 area ( I had originally thought it would be in the $26000 range ). The main reason I think it will be here is because there will only be 1/3 to 1/4 as many of them as there are Prius.
I wouldn't be surprised if it could be sold at $23000 which is about $3000 above the CE model. But at this level it's just at the top of the typical 4c buyers range and it would generate huge waiting lists of possibly 20 deep at every store, not just in CA. This would be a huge marketing blunder for two reasons: it potentially alienates loyal customers having to wait(!) for 'my next Camry' and since Toyota is a for-profit business it leaves a bunch of money on the table.
FWIW
Since the demographic is well known now, the Prius may actually be thousands under the prices of alternate ICE vehicles like Audi's, Lexus', Passats, etc.
As stated many times before the economic argument is a non issue with most Prius buyers and I believe HCH buyers and 400h buyers. It's only the HH and HAH buyers that are balking presently. I can't speak for the FEH buyers.
I see the CR article trying to give some direction to the cash-strapped couple who might see a hybrid as being the solution to balancing the family budget. It will never do this. This couple should be buying a Certified USed Accord, Camry or Civic/Corolla for commuting.
However see my prior post. $26K to $28K is not a problem for the typical Prius buyer. The price doesnt have to be in the $26K range but that's what the buyers are demanding. ( side note: many Prius buyers are debt-free and pay cash; they are not in the paycheck to paycheck profile ). There is a $23300 trim but it's being ignored in favor of the $26K, the $28K and the $30K models.
So will I, and until the Prius is the only car available there is always competition to it.
Since the demographic is well known now,
But those demographics 1.) are not everyone who buys the car and 2.) will change as there are only so many people who will buy a hybrid simply for ecological reasons or because its the newest toy.
the Prius may actually be thousands under the prices of alternate ICE vehicles
I wouldn't put the Prius in the same class as most Audis or Lexus. I would put it in the same class as other moderately or low priced sedans. Most Lexus and Audi owners I know would even consider a Prius (no let me say all of them wouldn't). FWIW everyone I know that has a Prius had cars that were sub $35K cars (most under $30k).
This couple should be buying a Certified USed Accord, Camry or Civic/Corolla for commuting.
There are other models available, some would be better than the ones you listed. Not to mention other alternatives.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D
All three V6 hybrids you mention are slow movers or busts. From the comments by Honda I think they are ready to pull the plug on the HAH but the V6 hybrid belongs in the Lexus line where the buyer wants V8 power more than FE. They are selling about 4000 units a month of the 400h and HH so it's not abysmal just so-so. Now IMO the new HH next year should link the 2.4L with the HSD and drop the price from $33K to $30K and increase the FE to low 30's all the time and then the HH will be a hit. They don't need a 4c Highlander anymore the RAV V6 has taken that price slot. but like the Camry having two V6 options is a great move.
Again TCH vs 4c Camry is a non issue. It's two different segments and two different demographic profiles. Applying Mike Ditka's words about George Halas to the 4c Camry buyer: 'They throw around nickels like they were manhole covers'. That's not the profile of the few buyers of the TCH.
Your view of hybrid vehicles is certainly one of many in the market and I'm sure it's the majority for now. But since this is such a diverse and immense market there continues to be good potential for hybrid success as just another trim level in the Camry line. Why do people spend extra for leather and moonroofs and Navi's while others think all of these are frills and folly. Because they want to and they continue to want to every year in every model. The TCH just fills one more desire.
Can you imagine this. Some people pay $40000 for a truck!!!! to drive to work ... in an office. Where is the sense in that? Now which has a larger 'folly' factor?
The XLE V6 with NAV is selling in So. California for $25,720. More than $2000 under MSRP. That is the target price for a TCH with NAV to match for the wise buyer to bite. The XLE 4 cylinder (NAV not available) is going for $21,629. At $27k for the TCH WO/NAV you are looking at more than a $5000 premium. A very small increase in MPG with a 1/3 of your trunk space taken up with batteries. Heavier weight for worse handling. The XLE 4C is available as SULEV II, 9.5 EPA emissions rated. It will get 34 MPG on the highway. So what does the TCH have that is worth $5,371 more?
PS
How does the 0-60 MPH compare between the TCH and the 4C Camry?
Find me a vehicle that meets all the following criteria;
midsized, nothing smaller than a 2000 AltCamCord;
with combined FE in the mid/high 40's;
all the safety features;
similar performance to the 2000 AltCamCord;
mid $20K range.
I understand your accountant's perspective since that's my ( non-used )major as well. But those that buy the Prius don't see any competition. You can be disbelieving but it is reality. Those that don't buy it do see alternatives.
And you are off base on the vehicles being considered along with the Prius. Often it's a price category decision. 'This is what we can get in the $26-35K range what do you want?' These buyers view themselves as '$30K buyers' It's one reason that Edmunds here regroups vehicles in price ranges. These buyers are not under any circumstance 'under $20K buyers'.
I sure can. I like driving my truck because it does not hurt my back getting in and out as the sedans do. By the way the worst is our Lexus. Nice once you are in but a back breaker getting in and out.
2011 Hyundai Sonata, 2014 BMW 428i convertible, 2015 Honda CTX700D