Hybrids in the News

bigdave2

well, maybe my "normal" agressive driving isn't as anti-MPG as your normal, aggressive driving. (no flame intended)

When I am on city streets, I drive very normally. I don't speed to stop lights and roar away. But I am also conscious of the fact that there are people behind me at the now-green light who also want to get through the intersection on the same green as I. So I don't poke along to make my way through. I wonder if I could get increased city MPG by changing my habits.

As to the difference on the freeway, I am sure there is a decent MPG difference for my car between driving 80 mpgh and driving 55. There is no way it is 40%. Even the EPA estimates for my car aren't 40% higher than my "lead-footed" driving.
EPA Estimates for my car:
MPG (city) 19
MPG (highway) 27
MPG (combined) 22

My tank average fluctuates from 20 and change to 21 and change, in combined driving. Could I get it up to 25? Doubtful.

bigdave2

Someone had commented that they only want hybrids used in high MPG approaches. I think that is a mistake. There is a benefit to recruiting low MPG drivers into hybrids, and we are not going to do that by only offering them the Prius or the Civic. If we can get a guy to cross-shop the Honda Accord Hybrid when he is considering a V8 Mustang, then it would be a great success (if he buys the HAH).

I agree that it would be nice if no one bought inefficient V8. But people do. Getting them to change their tastes is not going to happen overnight (unless, of course, gas prices jump 25% overnight)

snakeweasel

I didn't know I would face the Spanish Inquisition

But Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!!!
Our weapon is surprise and fear...
huh, Our two weapons are surprise, fear and ruthless efficiency...
Huh, Our three weapons are surprise, fear, ruthless efficiency and a almost fanatical devotion to the Pope...
Huh, included in our weapons, no among our weapons... Oh lets just start this all over again.

Sorry couldn't resist. :P

gagrice

If we can get a guy to cross-shop the Honda Accord Hybrid when he is considering a V8 Mustang

I cannot imagine anyone cross shopping those two cars. As long as you mentioned them in the same breathe. The V6 Mustang has the same ULEV II rating in CA as the HAH. So the Mustang has the HAH beat in looks and matched in EPA emissions. The HAH is a lost cause. Honda blew it with that one. They should let it die. It will be special order like the Insight. The bulk of people looking at hybrids want great mileage and a free ride in the HOV lane.

bigdave2

G: I think the market will prove you wrong on this, and it looks like the manufacturers agree with me. Look at all the new hybrids coming to the market. Not ONE of them is a small, high efficency model. The Lexus RX and GS are high output approaches. So, too, are the truck-based hybrids.

Emissions is only one element of owning a car. Does the Mustang have better giddyup than that the HAH? And at what cost? Which car is faster off the line, the V6 Mustang or the HAH?

If you want to poke along in a sedan, buy the Carmy 4 cylinder. If you want some fun for the same MPG, buy the Camry hybrid.

Do we compare cars based on MPG or do we compare them based on HP, 0-60, etc.?

I like the Mustang, but the MPG sucks. If I can have the same fun (plus better ergonomics, better interior layout, though less sex appeal), but get better MPG, I am going to look at the better MPG offering, which is the HAH.

I think there are plenty of buyers who fall into the same demographic as I. Concerned about the environment, but we want something sporty.

I don't know how the automakers are going to deal with folks that need some ruggedness in the drive train, but also want hybrid technology. Those electric motors are not made for driving on gravel, etc. I don't know if Ford admonishes Mariner Hybrid drivers the same way Lexus admonishes RX400H drivers - basically, "don't take it anywherew the tires will be spinning."

I do agree with you that "the bulk" of people interested in hybrids are interested in MPG (and the HOV bonus). But there are lots of other car buyers out there.

gagrice

I think there are plenty of buyers who fall into the same demographic as I. Concerned about the environment, but we want something sporty.

I'm sure there are. I was basing my statements on the fact that Honda is practically giving the 2005 HAH away. Maybe the 2006 is a lot better looking and will sell better.

The other side is, if I buy a high performance car I want it to handle commensurate with the HP that it has. I don't think from all I have read that the HAH is a very good handling car. It is a street rod pure and simple. Great if you want to beat every one to the next stop light. There goes the MPG down the drain.

Lastly the HAH is not SULEV II rated. You can get an Accord that is SULEV II rated. It is not a hybrid.

tagman

Hybrid Technology offers the potential for MORE power, not LESS. By ADDING the electric
motor(s), total power is increased, but the fuel efficiency is also increased, and the emissions are cleaner . . . all at the same time. It's a natural! The upcoming Lexus LS600hL will have significant horsepower BECAUSE of the HYBRID!!! . . . . expect around 500 - 520 HP! PLUS good mileage. So, the added POWER offered by hybrid technology will become more well-known in the public eye as this model and other models that emphasize performance become more commonplace. Eventually the manufacturers will focus on greater overall performance characteristics for hybrid vehicles.

This leaves TWO ways for hybrid vehicles to be marketed. Super high MPG with adequate HP and handling, or Superior HP and handling with good MPG as icing on the cake.

TagMan

backy

At least one hybrid coming later this year is a small, high-efficiency hybrid (depending on what you consider "high efficiency"): the Accent and Rio hybrids (OK, that's two I guess). The emphasis for those cars will definitely not be on power.

Must be a boring pre-game show...

tagman

Pre-game is so so. But game has just started . . .

BYE!!!!!!!!!!

dewey

This leaves TWO ways for hybrid vehicles to be marketed. Super high MPG with adequate HP and handling, or Superior HP and handling with good MPG as icing on the cake.

Do hybrids that emphasize performance sell? Do people really want to buy a hybrid primarily for performance?
Will a high performance hybrid handle well when it is bogged down by the hefty weight of a large battery and hybrid technology? I dont think so.

The following is in Weekend Wall Street Journal:

The Accord Hybrid has been among the least-successful hybrid vehicles, but it's not the only hybrid that's not zipping off the lots as fast as the Prius. As of January, the Toyota Highlander hybrid crossover wagon was taking 29 days to sell, compared with 27 days for the average gas-only Highlander, which typically sells for about $9,000 less, according to Power Information Network. The hybrid Lexus RX400h is moving off the lot in an average of 25 days, compared with 24 for the regular RX330.

Is it mere coincidence that the slowest selling hybrids are the the ones that produce the most horsepower?
Here is another paragraph from the same WSJ article:

Hybrids that focus on fuel economy -- notably the Prius and the Ford Escape hybrid -- are still selling briskly compared to their gas-only counterparts. Vehicles that use hybrid technology as a sort of turbocharger to crank up horsepower look less compelling. The stage is set for round two, in which companies compete to develop hybrids that not only make owners feel good about contributing less to global carbon-dioxide and pollution levels, but also make economic sense.

WSJ.com

dewey

Honda is practically giving the 2005 HAH away. Maybe the 2006 is a lot better looking and will sell better.

Maybe not! Read the following from WSJ.com and you will notice how unexciting the 2006 HAH is compared to a 2006 i4 Accord EX. In fact the 2005 HAH sounds better than the 2006 HAH:

A four-cylinder Accord EX sedan with automatic transmission is rated at 24 miles per gallon in the city, 34 highway. The asking price, with leather seats, is $25,500. The Accord Hybrid's asking price, for 2006, is $31,540 with freight charges. The rated mileage for the redesigned car is 25 miles per gallon in the city, and 34 highway. (That's down from 29/37 city highway because the 2006 car is heavier.)

WSJ.com

gagrice

The Accord Hybrid's asking price, for 2006, is $31,540 with freight charges

I think sales are limited to people that just love the Accord and have to have a hybrid. No other reason for it to sell. That $31k is without NAV, add 2 grand more. I would bet that Honda is not making any money at that price either. They always said they lost money on the Insight. I think their hybrid program is in place to keep the green image.

Have you heard any more on your TCH delivery date?

dpat

I don't know how the automakers are going to deal with folks that need some ruggedness in the drive train, but also want hybrid technology. Those electric motors are not made for driving on gravel, etc. I don't know if Ford admonishes Mariner Hybrid drivers the same way Lexus admonishes RX400H drivers - basically, "don't take it anywherew the tires will be spinning."

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming Tahoe and Yukon Hybrids from GM will be able to go offroad. They appear to be basing their Hybrid strategy primarily on large heavy-duty vehicles that many people use offroad, or for towing large loads, unlike the hybrids that we're getting from everyone else. I can't see them selling many if they are unable to do any heavy work.

tagman

Do hybrids that emphasize performance sell? Do people really want to buy a hybrid primarily for performance?
Will a high performance hybrid handle well when it is bogged down by the hefty weight of a large battery and hybrid technology? I dont think so.

I completely understand why you would say this . . . but . . . the hybrid cost "premium" will reduce dramatically in two more model years according to Toyota, and I believe Toyota.

The reason I mention this first is that the price of the Highlander hybrid, for example, is astronomical, to the point of being almost pointless. Especially when the Prius sits next to it on the same lot with the hatchback and accomplishes similar tasks and meets many of the same needs for massively less money. I'm not suggesting that the Prius is an SUV, but it IS a practical vehicle for so much less money and it sits on the same lot. The standard ICE Highlander is also a much better buy, but the Highlander itself is just not the right vehicle for this anyway, IMO.

The Camry, however is a totally different animal and I predict it will sell well. In addition, the new upcoming Lexus LS hybrid will achieve approximately 500-520 HP and will do so with tremendous fuel efficiency and luxury. YES, it WILL be successful. So, to answer your concerns, I think that the application has to be placed in the right vehicle. A Highlander is not a place to look for performance. It's a utiliy vehicle and the hybrid version is just way too expensive in that vehicle to justify itself, at least right now.

Also, hybrid technology hasn't found itself completely yet. It is doing well as a fuel mizer, but has not yet proved itself in the performance arena yet. Basically, there are not enough applications yet, and it hasn't even had a fair chance. Where are the cars? This will take some time, but it WILL happen and eventually the dust will settle. The "large" battery is not all that large, and will get even smaller.

Hybrids will all improve and get cheaper in the process. Just wait and see. The new LS will be a great vehicle to elevate people's perceptions of hybrid technology. People's perceptions and acceptance will evolve over the course of time as they see models like the new LS hybrid. Give it a little time, dewey, give it a little time.

TagMan

tagman

The answer for serious heavy-duty truck applications is simple . . . it's DIESEL, just like it always has been. Hybrids have their place, but DIESELS have their place too . . . and that's one of them. Absolutely.

TagMan

bigdave2

The other side is, if I buy a high performance car I want it to handle commensurate with the HP that it has. I don't think from all I have read that the HAH is a very good handling car. It is a street rod pure and simple. Great if you want to beat every one to the next stop light. There goes the MPG down the drain.

True, but now you are changing the rules of the comparo. I compared the HAH to a Mustang. Would you really call the Mustang a "performance" car?

Compare apples to apples. I didn't compare the HAH to a Porsche.

I'm not saying the HAH is perfect. And it does appear that the market has decided against it. Still, it appears we will see more cars along the lines of the HAH. The market will tell us who wins. For the consumer, it's all good - the more choices, the better. And it will be interesting to see the automakers imagination at work in this area.

bigdave2

I think the Wall Street Journal is focusing on the wrong numbers (which wouldn't be the first time). Instead of comparing the Highlander hybrid to the 4 cylinder hybrid, they should compare it to other vehicles competing with the Highlander. I bet the Yukons, Explorers, etc. sit for more than 29 days. (same comment for the Lexus RX)

kdhspyder

Here's my take in talking ( actually not talking ) to the public. The hybrid linked to the respective V6 drivetrain is a small misstep in the Toyota and the Honda strategy. As you noted about yourself, Dewey, as with myself and many many others FE is far more important than power for the bulk of the US market which is where Toyotas and Hondas live. In general for the US market those needing power are on the periphery, which is why the Detroit based makers are having such a hard time with their autos. They think that it's still 1976. The market has moved away from them.

IMO these two vehicle are missteps, but tiny ones. In the WSJ article the difference in 'days-to-sell' between the ICE's and hybrids is nominal, one day. Consider, the Detroit makers would kill to have a vehicle with an 'under 30 days to sell' label - with a few exceptions.

Again IMO these two vehicles belong exclusively in the Lexus and Acura showrooms where power does sell and FE is way down the line in reasons to buy. I believe that next year 'Yota when it comes out with the new Highlander on a new platform and ICE, the 3.5L, should make the low end Highlander the hybrid linked to the 2.4L like the Camry.

Honda is in a bind though for two reasons:
1) They love the tag as 'the greenest and most innovative' carmaker. They rushed the Insight here to beat the Gen1 Prius by 6 months. It is very efficient but it really was a concept vehicle. But they can always say that they were first. Similarly the HAH beat the Camry to the US by 18 months. Yep they were here first. But these are two missteps IMO.

2) The problem is the IMA system that they use. It is just a booster like the GM version only in auto's. The HCH is perfect for this since it's a small vehicle but as per Edmunds comparo the beautiful new Civic doesnt do well versus the 3 y.o. PriusII mainly due to the hybrid system. It's neither as fast nor as efficient, although it's probably nicer than the Prius in every other way.

The HAH can't link the IMA to it's 2.4L. It just isn't powerful enough and it likely wouldnt get the FE that the new Camry will. Honda couldnt suffer the embarrassment of putting a second rate trim of the Accord against the TCH.

IMO it comes down to money. :surprise: Toyota has tons of it, duh, and can do all the R&D necessary to come up with the most advanced system before anyone else and then take the time to methodically plan how to introduce this new technology. Honda, like Nissan, GM and DC, have either less resources or are being made to play catch up with simple booster packs. Toyota and Ford did the hard R&D and got there first.

Honda's best opportunity may be just to concentrate on it's diesel development for when the ULSD is available and make it's mark there. Drop the HAH and concentrate on it's smaller hybrids which are very good.

BTW all hybrid systems are good for the environment. I've shown it before in different posts but the HH/400h saves exactly the same amount of fuel in one year as does the Prius if the driver uses the best features of the HSD!! The ratings just aren't as sexy so it's a harder sell.

The TCH is here. IMO next it's the Sienna, the Tundra, Corolla and RAV

kdhspyder

I dont think it will be any problem fot the truck-based hybrids. The hybrids are more of a booster pack loaded on very capable ICE engines/tranny's. I'll defer to gagrice who actually owns one but I dont' believe that there is any loss of capability.

snakeweasel

the hybrid cost "premium" will reduce dramatically in two more model years according to Toyota, and I believe Toyota.

As more and more models come out from more and more manufacturers economies of scale and competition will drive down prices.

Especially when the Prius sits next to it on the same lot with the hatchback and accomplishes similar tasks and meets many of the same needs for massively less money.

Here is my issue with the hybrids right now. There are many cars out there that will meet the needs of a prius and cost much less money. In many cases it will take 100K or more miles for the gas savings to cover the hybrid "premium". Of course as gas prices climb and the "premium" shrinks that will change.

the new upcoming Lexus LS hybrid will achieve approximately 500-520 HP and will do so with tremendous fuel efficiency and luxury.

I am not so sure about putting hybrids in high performance vehicles. It would seem to me that the added weight of the hybrid system would negate any increase in power (or at the very least a good portion of it).

gagrice

Would you really call the Mustang a "performance" car?

I don't think so. It just looks like a street rod. And it sells good, because it looks good. I even thought of buying one just to keep in the garage. It reminded me of the original Shelby GT350 that was a great car in it's day. I would hope that it handles better than an Accord.

gagrice

I'll defer to gagrice who actually owns one but I dont' believe that there is any loss of capability.

As has been pointed out the GM current hybrid is basically a big starter/generator. It uses regen braking and auto stop. It really has nothing to do with powering the truck. The 5.3L engine is good for light duty towing up to 8000 Lb.

I believe that a full hybrid could pull huge loads. Look at trains and earth movers. At what cost in weight, size & $$$? Toyota realizes they cannot put the current RH & HH HSD system in a car based truck and sell it to anyone looking for heavy utility. We shall see what they come up with for the Tundra Hybrid.

mirth

This Camry Hybrid, a mid-sized car with nearly 200 hp, got about 31 mpg with a lead-footed driver. I think that is pretty darn good.

I agree with you. But will it be good enough for the price premium?

kdhspyder

Actually I think it will be a roaring success because it will attract the V6 buyer.. not the 4c buyer. The V6 Camrybuyer expects the price to be in the $25-28K range depending on equipment. I'll venture that there will be little or no premium vis-a-vis the other V6's.

Over the 4c yes there is a premium. But this is just the same as asking the current 4c owner to 'move up' to a V6. The probable answer.. Why? At 50-100K units annually I believe they are looking only at potential V6 owners not 4c 'converts'. There will be some for sure, but I'll venture most are like me and see no need for V6 power at any premium. I opted instead for the Prius.

bigdave2

I hear ya re the Prius versus the Camry, but remember that there are some folks who simply do not like the alternate look of the Prius. For these folks, who are already willing to pay a premium to get hyubrid technology, I think the Camry Hybrid will work. We'll see. I'd like to read how it drives in comparison to other vehicles.

backy

I agree. If the TCH can be priced at about what a V6 is, I think it will be a huge success. Keep in mind that the TCH has about the same power as the '06 Camry V6--plenty for most people. So from that perspective there really isn't a "price premium", unless you just have to have 268 hp. And if a lead-footer can get 30+ mpg, about 10 mpg more than for a V6, think what a light-footer might get--35+?

tagman

Here is my issue with the hybrids right now. There are many cars out there that will meet the needs of a prius and cost much less money. In many cases it will take 100K or more miles for the gas savings to cover the hybrid "premium". Of course as gas prices climb and the "premium" shrinks that will change.

Cost of ownership is a formula that partially negates the comparison of the hybrid "premium" vs. a non-hybrid. At trade-in time, the resale will be higher on the hybrid, as a reflection of the vehicles higher initial price, and when you add the potential tax incentives to the SIGNIFICANT savings in fuel economy and the higher resale, you get a decent cost of ownership that IS worth the "premium". And keep in mind that the "premium" will keep on shrinking. It will just be another powertrain option as we have now between 4 cylinder and 6 cylinder or even 8 cylinder, depending on the vehicle. Typically the larger engines have cost more. So . . . the hybrid will have a similar added value, but will GIVE BACK to the buyer SIGNIFICANT savings in fuel efficiency, whereas nowadays the larger ICE engine option actually REDUCES the fuel efficiency. That will be an important difference. IT will not take 100,000 miles to reap the benefits, due to the SIGNIFICANT fuel savings, and the improving "premium" price, and the increased resale value. Again, the cost-of-ownership will be a BENEFIT. The icing on the cake is the cleaner emissions on some of the models. And some hybrid fans believe that the environmental benefits are worth any small "premium", in terms of cleaner air and energy efficiency.

Again, as more of these hybrids make their debut, we will see even better technology. It's a "win - win".

TagMan

gagrice

And keep in mind that the "premium" will keep on shrinking.

I have heard that for several years. As long as the Prius is not readily available and dealers in the biggest market, CA, are selling for $31k plus, that premium will not be recouped, by gas savings. The first loaded Prius I drove was $20k even with an 8 year 100k mile bumper to bumper warranty. The premium has a long way to shrink.

snakeweasel

At trade-in time, the resale will be higher on the hybrid, as a reflection of the vehicles higher initial price, and when you add the potential tax incentives to the SIGNIFICANT savings in fuel economy and the higher resale, you get a decent cost of ownership that IS worth the "premium".

I would disagree after running the numbers the supposively higher resale value and tax incentives still do not warrant the higher price at this time especially when you introduce the time value of money. Secondly resale value become more and more meaningless the longer you one a car. Right now its not economically viable to purchase a hybrid over much less expensive alternatives. In the future as things progress that will change I will admit that, but its not the case now.

If you are buying a Hybrid because you want the newest toy, fine. If your buying a hybrid to pollute less, fine. But don't try to tell me you save money with one at this time.

Now again as technology improve, economies of scale come into play and more competition enters the marketplace prices will drop and hybrids will most likely become economically viable, but its not the case today. Maybe in 3 or 4 years when I am ready for the new car this would be the case and a hybrid might be on my short list.

snakeweasel

The premium will shrink and most likely in the next few years as more and more hybrid models hit the market. If they don't drop they will lose sales to less expensive newer hybrids out there.

kdhspyder

If you are buying a Hybrid because you want the newest toy, fine. If your buying a hybrid to pollute less, fine. But don't try to tell me you save money with one at this time.

Correct. Buying a hybrid to soley to save money is not a good reason. Buy it because you like the vehicle or as you mention it appeals to other 'needs' you have.

As a tertiary benefit you may save money on fuel but it shouldnt be the main reason for buying the vehicle.

dewey

Have you heard any more on your TCH delivery date?

So far I am hearing May as the delievery date for the hybrid Camry. My order is contingent on the price. Did not get specifics yet on when pricing is available.

dewey

new LS will be a great vehicle to elevate people's perceptions of hybrid technology. People's perceptions and acceptance will evolve over the course of time as they see models like the new LS hybrid.

You may be right. So far Lexus will be far ahead of all luxury marques in terms of hybrid technology. The LS is a perfect car for hybrid because it is a cruiser without any pretensions of being a high performance/handling car.

I am doubtful BMW's hybrid efforts will pay off. BMW's competitive advantage is not performance but handling. And there is nothing that kills handling like weight, especially the extra pounds of hybrid technology.

dewey

Honda's best opportunity may be just to concentrate on it's diesel development for when the ULSD is available and make it's mark the

Cannot agree more. The turbodiesel Honda CRVs and Accords in Europe are high efficiency gems. I think they will sell very well here in North America.

gagrice

California Legislators bought them....

Thirty-five -- or well over a quarter -- of the state's 119 senators and Assembly members are cruising the politically correct highway, state records show.

Murray gave up his very big Lincoln Navigator for a smaller but equally pricey ($57,334) 2006 Hybrid Lexus RX400H which, according to Automobile Magazine, "accelerates with V-8 gusto and cradles its occupants in leather-lined luxury.'' It also gets a compact-like 30 mpg, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Another reformed guzzler is Assemblyman Joe Nation. The San Rafael Democrat drives a 2005 Honda Accord hybrid that gets 32 mpg, helping cut his gas bill from the Assembly-topping $3,600 he totaled in 2004.

Other hybrid owners include Assemblyman Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, who also tools around in a 2005 Accord hybrid


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/02/05/BAGINH31GP1.DTL

bobfl

I give up, your arguments that a hybrid won't pay back have convinced me. Just one thing though I need someone to calculate the payback for my new V6 option.

tagman

I have heard that for several years. As long as the Prius is not readily available and dealers in the biggest market, CA, are selling for $31k plus,

I've had MANY MANY opportunities to get a Prius without any added markup and I live in California as well. However, I am not currently in the market for a Prius. The only "premium" I've been speaking of is the added cost to the vehicle itself when compared to non-hybrid vehicles, much of which will be recouped at trade-in AND in ongoing fuel savings. Whether or not every single dollar is recouped is to be seen, but it would appear that with a small increase in gas prices at this point, and some better vehicle pricing, the benefit is upon us. Also, as the models get discounted due to greater availability, then it's a "no-brainer". And if anyone thinks that the price of gasoline won't get higher as the next few years go by . . . well . . . then they aren't paying attention anyway.

explorerx4

as a v8 mustang mustang owner, what kind of gas mileage are you getting with yours?
i do agree with you about the fun, despite less sex appeal of my pzev rated focus, that has features like a power moonroof and heated seats versus a prius. it gets about 30 mpg and a prius is 10-15k more to buy. if i ever take it on a long trip, think i can get at least 35 mpg. my sister gets about 45-48 on trips with her prius.
i do enjoy the challenge of seeing how far i can go on electric only.

gagrice

Don't give up yet. There are some great deals on the 2005 HAH. If you can wait the Camry Hybrid will be out. If it sells for the same or less than the V6 it may be a good choice for you.

The V6 option will never payback compared to a 4 cylinder. Only if you feel you want that extra HP.

tagman

I give up, your arguments that a hybrid won't pay back have convinced me. Just one thing though I need someone to calculate the payback for my new V6 option

It's ALWAYS easier for a consumer to be convinced to do what appears to cost less. It is also easier for a consumer to make a purchase decision that justifies his/her preferences. And when it comes to an automobile purchase, consumers SHOULD buy what they want.

The assistance of a good argument that supports those preferences certainly helps to justify and reinforce the legitimacy of the consumer's preferences.

Any attempt to justify a larger or fuel-hungry engine through mathematical means is not the best approach. The best approach is to consider that the buyer wants to PAY the extra premium for the differences in performance that the engine provides.

What is interesting is that typically buyers have almost ALWAYS PAID MORE for larger ICE's that deliver more HP at the sacrifice of fuel-efficiency. It's always been fun to make an engine selection for our vehicles. But NOW we are starting to see a NEW (and better, IMO) choice in the mix . . . to pay for the hybrid power option and get BOTH greater power AND fuel efficiency.

So, as we buy our next vehicle, some of them will have expanded engine choices. Consider them for a moment . . . Is the standard ICE engine worth it? Is the larger ICE engine worth it? Is the hybrid worth it? These are preferences that have a price tag attached. Each will have different performance characteristics. Each will have a different initial cost. Each will have a different resale value, and each will have a VERY different fuel consumption.

There are arguments to support all choices. Some suggest that there is no payback for the hybrid, but some cannot justify the larger ICE. Some suggest that the standard smaller engine is too weak, and will not have good resale. Some suggest that the resale on hybrids is fantastic and that this large resale combined with the significant fuel savings and cleaner emissions IS worth it.

Bottom line . . . it is the consumer's preferences.
But just watch how those preferences will change dramatically the next time the gas prices take a big hike at the pump! And it won't be long! Can you guess what engine choice people will want then? Like I said, it won't be long.

TagMan

kdhspyder

The link below goes to the Feb issue of PM with a HH vs ICE and HCH vs ICE comparo. It has good discussions also on the EPA testing controversy.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars_trucks/2154662.html?page=1&c- - -

gagrice

Key statement in the PM article:

Still, the long-range future for hybrids is unclear, says Dave Cole, president of the Center for Auto Research. "Sure, you have the surge of early adopters buying them. But gas prices change. One [factor] that won't change is the higher cost of a hybrid. And that's fundamental." Unlike digital technology with its rapid price drops after introduction, much of a hybrid's higher price is for hardware. And hardware prices don't fall as drastically or quickly as software.

I think Toyota saying they will be cutting hybrid costs by 50% is a figment of some corporate executive's imagination.

kdhspyder

Both Toyota's statements and the one by PM can both exist.

If the extra cost is $4000 cutting that in half is certainly possible over time. No one ever said that hybrids would ever cost the same or less than the same sized ICE. Hey V6's cost more to make than 4c. As PM says hardware doesnt decline in price as quickly as software.

Here is a considerations though. What if Toyota has already done the cost cutting R&D and implemented it already. All these savings now might be going dirctly to the bottom line. Just food for thought.

If you were a business owner would you come out and say 'We've reduced our costs by $2000 per vehicle... but we're keeping it.'

tagman

I think Toyota saying they will be cutting hybrid costs by 50% is a figment of some corporate executive's imagination.

Toyota has kept EVERY promise regarding the hybrids . . . so I think you can expect lower prices on the hybrid hardware, as they have promised. I don't know it will reach 50%, but it will be significant. Count on it.

Heck, a V6 is more hardware than a 4-banger and it costs more. A V8 is more hardware than a 6-banger and it costs more. A turbo is more hardware than a non-turbo and often requires more costly maintenance and it costs more. A diesel often costs more than a gas-burner. But we pay more for all of these options because of the "benefits". There are definate benefits to the hybrid option, as well, and it actually "pays back" the buyer with its cleaner emissions and fuel efficiency. As gas prices go up, and they WILL, this fuel efficiency benefit actually INCREASES as time goes.
TagMan

dewey

Toyota has kept EVERY promise regarding the hybrids . . . so I think you can expect lower prices on the hybrid hardware, as they have promised. I don't know it will reach 50%, but it will be significant. Count on it.

Toyota may cut hybrid costs by 50 percent but that does not mean the price premium paid by hybrid customers will decrease by 50 percent.

Currently hybrids are not a high profit margin proposition for any manufacturer including Toyota. Toyota may cut manufacturing costs by 50% and use that cost reduction to increase their profits. We may expect hybrid price reductions in the future but not to the same extent as the decline in hybrid manufacturing costs .

tagman

Let's see . . . I can choose a 4-banger . . . or a V-6 . . . or a V-8 . . . or a diesel . . . or a turbo . . . or a hybrid. If I pick an upgrade it will cost more money due to the increased hardware. So, what are the benefits of each? More power? Better fuel economy? Why not BOTH!!!!! Hybrid delivers more power WITH greater fuel-efficiency! That makes it a smart alternative. Not the only one, but a good one. Good enough for Toyota, Honda, Ford, and other major manufacturers to offer more and more hybrid vehicles for sale. Will the technology improve? YES!!! That's good news, isn't it? Are people waiting on lists to get this technology? In some geographic areas on some models. WHY are people willing to wait? DUH!!!! Maybe because they see a benefit to increased power and fuel efficiency instead of choosing a larger ICE that consumes MORE fuel instead of less. Toyota and others KNOW what they are doing here. The upcoming Lexus LS600hL will be in essence an ultimate vehicle that will raise people's perceptions of hybrids beyond the econobox to the extreme level of luxury and technology. The Camry will represent a GREAT alternative to purchasing a typical family car that only gets typical mileage. Instead they will have an incredibly reliable family car that gets SUPERIOR mileage. Gee, isn't that a shame? But some of you should not get that kind of reliable fuel-efficient car. Instead, get a regular ICE and spend more money at the gas station. Maybe some of you need an even BIGGER engine so you can spend MORE money to get it AND then spend even more money at the pump, especially as gas prices rise, and maybe some of you do not think that gas prices will continue to rise. Think what you want. It's OK.
TagMan

gagrice

Toyota has kept EVERY promise regarding the hybrids.

Let's see, Jan. 2004 PROMISED by October 2004 delivered the middle of 2005. Kept people's deposits tied up for a year and a half.

thebest2003, "Lexus RX 400h" #13, 29 Jan 2004 3:49 pm

tagman

They DID deliver the goods, didn't they? Complain about the time frame, sure, but you're TRYING to find issues to support your NEGATIVE view here. Nothing's perfect, but give Toyota MAJOR credit for undertaking this transition in a short period of time . . . even if it does come with some delays. The point is that as time goes, Toyota WILL reduce the price tag to upgrade to hybrid technology. The benefits are tremendous and they will be even better! Like it or not! (and it sounds like you don't want to). But you can count on it! It's already happening. How many hybrid models were available just a couple of years ago? How many are available NOW? How many will be available within the year? See? Open your eyes to the future!
TagMan

bigdave2

who says hardware prices don't come down, but software prices do?

that's a load of crap

dewey

The Camry will represent a GREAT alternative to purchasing a typical family car that only gets typical mileage. Instead they will have an incredibly reliable family car that gets SUPERIOR mileage.

My agreement with your statement is conditional on the hybrid Camry price premium over a typical Camry. My purchase of the hybrid Camry is conditional on the price.

Paying a high amount of dollars to purchase a hybrid Camry in order to save gas costs that is significantly less than the premium you are paying for hybrid technology will TURN OFF a majority of buyers.

Oh yes I heard many in this forum say the following: People should not buy a hybrid just to save money. There are other reasons, right? Emissions and that eerie quiet sound of driving a hybrid. That may be true but if hybrids do not make economic sense than hybrids are not going to become a mainstream drivetrain alternative . In that case hybrids will just cater to a minority who claim to be environmentalists or to the few who like sound proof chambers.