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Hybrids in the News

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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If any place needs them it is Mexico City.
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    larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    What I'm saying is that IF high speed driving is the MAJORITY of your driving, you will likely NOT be getting EPA from your Hybrid and should not whine about it.

    I personally have gotten 56 MPG from my Civic at times when on the highway averaging 69-72 miles per hour.

    But that is not the norm - most drivers will not get that type of MPG consistently if they drive those speeds all the time.

    If you drive high speeds all the time, you are unlikely to get EPA average MPG from your hybrid, so you might as well trade it in.

    As far as driving ANY CAR in the HOV lane, well, if you do, just keep it 5-10 MPH over the limit and let the speeders who want to go faster go around you. That's how I do it. The HOV lane is not the "FAST FAST LANE" like some people try to make it into.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I try to stay off the freeways during the heavy periods. The time frame seem to be expanding to where they are always busy. My experience is everyone gets up to about 75 MPH and all goes well till some joker cuts across 4 lanes to catch his exit. Then the whole herd comes to a near stop. Then it is high speed acceleration back up to 75 MPH which is 10 MPH over the limit on most of the freeways I use. This kind of driving is not conducive to good mileage. I don't see any good resolution to the ills in our metro areas around the country. I would prefer a slower pace such as I experience in Victoria and Hilo, Hawaii.

    You have pointed out the failures in solving these issues with mass transit. It is the same in San Diego as it is in Phoenix. Too many people and too many vehicles. No one wants to give up the freedom that comes with owning a car. It is the American way.

    As long as the hybrids are dribbled out and the prices are gouged by greedy dealers I do not see them making any positive impact.

    PS
    Most of our HOV lanes are very limited ingress and egress. So if someone is going slower than the flow it is very disruptive to the overall flow of traffic.
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    larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    quote gagrice-PS Most of our HOV lanes are very limited ingress and egress. So if someone is going slower than the flow it is very disruptive to the overall flow of traffic.-end quote

    Yes, I recall seeing that in several areas when I went to Corona Del Mar this past August. I can see how that might be a problem.

    But in my estimation, Excessive Speeding is a larger problem than holding up the flow of traffic. Just my opinion.

    This month they are testing a Photo Radar system on one of the deadliest freeway loops around Phoenix. They take a snapshot of speeders going 77 MPH or more (speed limit 65 MPH) and in just the two days over this past weekend, they snapped 2,000 drivers going 77 MPH or more. This month it's only warning tickets, then when they activate it, it's a $157 fine.

    Maybe hitting them in their pocket will help slow them down a little bit, I can only hope.
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    bigdave2bigdave2 Member Posts: 40
    Hard to believe they only snapped 2,000 pics

    then again, traffic does thin out after commute hours, so maybe you only get one every ten seconds from 10 am-3 pm

    the left-hand lane on my local freeway is at 77 for most of the commute - I say "77" because 75 is too slow (you get tailgated) and at more than 80 you are doing the tailgating.

    Driving that fast in an HOV lane is dangerous. You never know when someone in the lane to the right is going to remember "Oh, yeah, we have two people in the car. We can be in the HOV lane" and suddenly moves left

    I wholeheartedly agree that hybrid drivers need to be shot if they drive slower than the average speed of the HOV lane driver. But I don't think you can fault them if they drive at 60 mph. That's probably too fast for most HOV lanes given the danger of the nuts to the right. Maybe even 55.

    The difference in arrival time between 55 mph and 75 mph is not that much over a ten-mile HOV commute
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    mirthmirth Member Posts: 1,212
    I figured the author's bias was apparent from the fact that he writes for a Detroit newspaper. Unlikely to find objective reporting of the car industry out of Detroit.

    Actually, Detroit newspapers have some of the best auto reporting in the world. And they are quite tough on the domestics too, but they are also fair. So I guess if you definition of "unbiased" is "bash the domestics all the time no matter what", then they are biased.
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    bigdave2bigdave2 Member Posts: 40
    My exposure to the Detroit press is limited. I guess it shows MY bias to assume that the home town press would be biased towards the home town industrial giants.

    but the article's bias was certainly revealed by its use of the term "liberals" in that one sentence. Once the writer's bias is apparent, the rest of the article needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

    and as I pointed out, the fact that a majority of surveyed hybrid owners aren't "happy" with their MPG is not supportive of the author's position, that hybrids do not achieve EPA mpg estimates.
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    PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Which of the following best describes why you own a hybrid?

    a) to make a statement

    b) for the tax credit and other perks

    c) because they’re environmentally friendly

    d) to save money at the pump

    e) to be the first to own new technology

    Please submit a few sentences to support your response no later than Friday, January 27, 2006. Be sure to include your Forums username. Thanks! (wclarke@edmunds.com)
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Is Ford taking the lead from Toyota on being green & saving fossil fuel?

    Ford was unveiling the Escape Hybrid E85 before journalists at the Washington Auto Show on Wednesday. The vehicle combines hybrid-electric power with the capability of operating on a mixture of 15 percent gasoline and 85 percent ethanol, a corn-based additive.

    The nation's No. 2 automaker plans to produce 250,000 ethanol-capable vehicles this year, including the Ford F-150 pickup truck, Ford Crown Victoria sedan, the Mercury Grand Marquis and the Lincoln Town Car.

    Backers of ethanol say it's a clean-burning fuel that helps Midwest farmers while reducing the nation's dependence on foreign oil and cutting greenhouse gas emissions.


    http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/13704368.htm
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    moparbadmoparbad Member Posts: 3,870
    The vehicle is not currently slated for production, but Ford said it could quickly produce the vehicle if there were improvements to the infrastructure of ethanol pumps around the nation, enough ethanol production and consumer demand.

    Is Ford taking the lead? Ford leads Toyota in unveiling products, however, Ford is certainly going the opposite direction of Toyota as far as producing vehicles. Ford is all show and no go! ;)
    Every week it seems like Toyota is adding a new model or improving a current model. Ford is closing plants, eliminating jobs, and losing market share. How many generations of Tacoma have been introduced while Ford sells the same Ranger? 3?
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Ford is all show and no go!

    You mean I can't order a Super Chief? I had my heart set on it. It must be for the shows. I agree that talk is cheap. Toyota also bragged about their hybrids long before they hit the market. Many missed delivery dates on the RH & HH. We shall see about the May/June Camry hybrid.

    If Ford lives up to the Promised 250k E85 vehicles next year, they will be doing more to curb the flow of fossil fuel than Toyota.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Great businessweek article on Li-Ion hybrids. The future looks bright for improved hybrids.

    li-ion hybrids
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Yes very interesting and balanced. Thanks.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Are they for real or not? I like the Mini Cooper they converted.

    The company has made claims in the past year that both "Tonight Show" host Jay Leno and Frito Lay were to accept some of its refitted cars. But both Leno and Frito Lay say they are not customers of Hybrid.

    In an interview with the Observer, Leno said he remembers seeing a Hybrid car about a year ago. He went for a ride in one and it broke down. "I was not impressed and I left," Leno said, adding that he did not buy one.


    http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/13723296.htm

    http://www.hybridtechnologies.com/products.php?sec=3&id=6
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    mirthmirth Member Posts: 1,212
    First hands-on review of the 2007 Camry that I've read. As I predicted, they were getting 32 MPG for the hybrid rather than 43/36.

    But fuel economy probably remains the top reason for wanting the hybrid, if not being able to boast to the neighbors. It carries stellar EPA ratings of 43 city, 36 highway. While we know that hybrid models aren't quite turning out their rated mileage in the real world, we were quite impressed with the trip-computer average we saw on our Camry Hybrid test car; in the mixed, mostly stop-and-go driving loop that Toyota had set up for us, the test car was averaging about 32 mpg - not bad at all for a bunch of hot-footed journalists trying to feel out the system.

    http://www.thecarconnection.com/Vehicle_Reviews/Sedans_and_Coupes/2007_Toyota_Ca- mry.S180.A9947.html
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    PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Hybrid cars are quietly gaining in popularity
    http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/article/20060127/NEWS/101270058

    With gas prices back up to post-Hurricane Katrina levels, the buzz word is once more "hybrid."

    Businessman Lou Pierini claims to be the first person in town to own a hybrid vehicle. He bought his Toyota Prius in 2001 and might as well be a company spokesperson.

    "The emissions are cleaner than the ambient air of the Los Angeles basin," he bragged Thursday while giving a reporter a test drive in his girlfriend's new Toyota Highlander, a four-wheel-drive sport utility vehicle.

    Stopping at an intersection, the car went quiet. Turns out, hybrids turn off completely when stopped in traffic.

    And that saves a lot of gas.

    Americans burn 753 million gallons of gasoline a year idling in stop-and-go traffic, according to the Federal Highway Administration. At Thursday's California average of $2.50 a gallon, that amounts to $1.9 billion a year to sit in traffic.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    If the journalists were as hot footed as they claim to have been then the 32 MPG for the hybrid Camry is not that bad! Mind you it is not that great, either. But with light footed gas-conscious driving I am sure the Camry will do much better in terms of gas consumption.
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    dewey - I think I might have seen in a recent post that you have ordered a Camry hybrid for yourself? Yes?
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Hi Tagman,

    good to hear from you again!

    The hybrid Camry will be our family car since my wife cannot drive a car with a stick. We will be mothballing her 83 MB300D for future posterity.

    Which leaves me with the freedom to buy a future car with a manual tranny. Hopefully it will be a torquey turbodiesel BMW. Although I may have to wait a while until BMW actually does offer such vehicles. :(
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I recently read the interesting comparison between the IS350 and the 330i here on the Edmunds site. The outcome was no surprise. After the dust settles from the Camry purchase you can start to think about that Bimmer.

    On a side note, I am entertaining the '06 Civic Hybrid as a way to get in the carpool lane here in California. My family does not need another significant vehicle at this time. What do you think? M/T Car of the Year . . . North American Car of the Year . . . and it just won another award up in Canada, which you might know more about. Make sense?

    Beyond that, I, too, am waiting for more diesel models. Actually I want the Mercedes GL SUV with the diesel. It MAY come I am told in a year or so. We'll see.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    I would pick the Civic hybrid over the hybrid Camry any day. I personally prefer smaller cars. But my family situation dictates that I buy a bigger car. So definitely in your case the Civic hybrid makes a lot of sense.
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Tks for the link. It's the first one I've seen on the new Camry. It seems very balanced and positive.

    32 mpg - not bad at all for a bunch of hot-footed journalists trying to feel out the system.

    The highlighted text is key.

    All hybrids are basically ICE vehicles. Most of the time they are just like any other vehicle in it's class. The TCH is just the same as an ICE TC most of the time! The benefit of the HSD system is that it allows the ICE to shutdown frequently thereby burning no fuel. The more a driver can create times for the ICE to shutdown the less fuel will be used. It's perfectly obvious..

    Bit..
    A) in cold weather the ICE has to run more because it has more work to do ( heat the cabin, the engine fluids and the catalytic converter );
    B) in accelerating the ICE is running nearly all the time;
    C) n short trips, see A), the ICE is running for the entire time;
    D) during high-speed driving you run into significantly increased aerodynamic resistance which makes the ICE work harder.

    In all four of the situations above you are essentially driving an ICE vehicle.

    The goal as a driver of a hybrid vehicle is to maximize frequency of times and therefore the total amount of time that the ICE's can shutdown.

    Careful.. If the 'hot-footed journalists' drove the test vehicle as they stated it's faulty logic to expand this specific situation to the general case.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Unfortunately points A to D covers about 95 percent of my driving situations.
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Good to hear your feedback. Camry will be a great car, BTW. I think that a LOT more could and should be done with the diesels on this side of the Atlantic. It's a shame, IMO. Let's just hope.
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    mirthmirth Member Posts: 1,212
    Take a look around. There's more "hot-footed journalist" types on the road than "there's a egg under the gas pedal" types. I suspect the "average" driver will be lucky to see the mid 30's, and will probably see the same 32-33 MPG that the article stated. Sure, hyper-milers will do better, but most people don't want to put that much work into driving, and prefer the A/C to sweating in the car. IMHO.
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Take a look around. There's more "hot-footed journalist" types on the road than "there's a egg under the gas pedal" types. I suspect the "average" driver will be lucky to see the mid 30's,

    I disagree here. We are talking about Camry drivers!

    Actually this is a good point you raise but IMO for a different reason. Presently 80+% of Camry drivers are 4c drivers where economy is one of the two key factors in deciding to get/stay in a Camry. If these drivers move from the conventional ICE 2.4L to the hybrid they will be doing so for economy and likely drive just as they have in the past, i.e. in a way to maximze FE. These drivers will likely get in the 40 mpg range because that is one of their key buying motives. Heck these drivers have avoided V6's for nearly 20 yrs. They have no need or desire to drive fast.

    However if the TCH wins over conquest sales from other V6 owners, say a 99 Taurus owner or a 97 Intrepid driver who are intrigued by a vehicle with more total hp than they currently drive and 40 mpg, these drivers may at first be disappointed to learn that they cannot drive the same way as they've been driving and expect to get maximum benefit from the HSD system. If they are open-minded to learn that they can get 37 mpg all day long at 63 mph on the highway then they too will be satisfied.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If they are open-minded to learn that they can get 37 mpg all day long at 63 mph on the highway then they too will be satisfied.

    That is an unrealistic speed most anywhere West of the Mississippi river. If it gets 37 MPG at 70-75 MPH they have a shot at being a practical car for the other half of the nation. If it sells for $32,990 fully equipped as the HAH, it will be a hard sell also.

    Any pricing or hard delivery dates from Toyota?
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Hard pricing not yet.. According to Inside Line it should come in about the same price as a regular V6, they stated it would be in the midrange of prices, with some options, BT, etc.. I'd guesstimate in the $26-27K range. Loaded up with leather and Navi possibly in the $31-32K range.

    I understand that the first ICE '07's will be built the week of 2-13 in KY. The TCH's will come from Japan at first likely in May/June. KY will be in hybrid production in 4th Qtr. Some Camry's will be produced at the Subie plant in Indiana.

    Regarding the TCH specifically it'll be easily be capable of doing anything up to 120 mph so 70-75 is not a concern it's just not very efficient for any vehicle. The faster one drives over 65 mph the worse your FE becomes... but that's true for all gassers or hybrids vehicles. The hybrids are after all just gassers with some hybrid benefits, if the driver choses to use them.

    Yes if you push it all the time you negate the benefits of the HSD system as I noted in the previous post. But for those who want extraordinary performance and dont mind sacrificing some FE there is the LE V6 or the SE V6 with 268 hp. All three vehicle should be in the same price range IMO. Choose which you prefer, there are lots of great options now.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    TCH specifically it'll be easily be capable of doing anything up to 120 mph so 70-75 is not a concern

    I was not concerned that it would not be capable of keeping up in normal CA traffic. The 4C Camry is more than fast enough. It is getting that extra mileage to justify the hybrid premium. The current 4C Camry is more than capable of 30+ MPG on the highway at 70 MPH. To justify a $2k to $4k premium I would want to see 36-40 MPG at 70-75 MPH. That is what I get with the Passat TDI Wagon. Even cruising at 80 MPH it only drops to 35 MPG. That is to me the competition in the Midsize sedans when diesel cars become available.
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Actually I am in full agreement with you on this which is why I did not wait for the TCH to come out, opting instead for the Prius. Even though I'd been in 4c Camry's since 1989 the price differential between the 4c ICe and the 4c TCH is for me personally not worth it. As you say getting 30+ mpg in a 4c ICE Camry at a good price is a great idea.

    The TCH is intended I believe to appeal to V6 buyers primarily:
    V6 w/ high FE
    V6 w/ high performance, sporty ride
    V6 w/ high performance, normal Camry feel.

    or luxury versions of all three.
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Basically, what is happening is that the hybrid option is becoming available on more and more models of vehicles. As this happens it becomes more commonplace and the buyers are faced with the same choices they've always been faced with . . . and that is basically what kind of car they want or need . . . such as compact, mid-size- SUV, truck, crossover, etc. Once having chosen the vehicle type, then the hybrid becomes one more step in the selection process . . . in other words, it's another consideration when making engine choices, selecting options, and adding accessories. So . . . one buyer may decide to get a Ford Escape and then chooses the hybrid option . . . another buyer may want a Honda Civic sedan, and then chooses the hybrid option. Yet another might choose the Camry because the vehicle is the right size and then decide about the hybrid option, or the Lexus because it is the right vehicle and then decide on the hybrid option, and so on. The hybrid is rapidly becoming less rare, and therefore will just become another powertrain choice for the consumer.

    Regarding the driving habits of most drivers, consumers generally drive in typical fashion, regarless of the vehicle they are in. The exceptions to this are vehicles that are loaded with extreme performance characteristics that of their own right change the driving dynamic. Currently, some hybrid drivers are focused on squeezing out high MPG results and will work at it, but as hybrid becomes more mainstream, most people will just drive as they usually do, and whatever benefit the hybrid offers will just be realized naturally from the hybrid itself.

    TagMan
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    The hybrid is rapidly becoming less rare, and therefore will just become another powertrain choice for the consumer.

    Well stated view of the near future... now add in diesel engines potentially across the board and the buyer can have several powertrain options all within the same model family.

    As usual, Honda and Toyota have it right with very very attractive options all the way from $15000 with the new COTY Civic all the way up to the near-luxury Avalon Ltd.
    Performance, FE, Luxury, Excitement whichever the buyer chooses he/she had excellent choices.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    I agree with 85 percent of what you are saying.

    So let me focus on the 15 percent:

    1)The TCH is intended I believe to appeal to V6 buyers primarily.

    The above certainly does not apply to me. I have never considered buying a V6 Camry! If I want performance I can get it elsewhere with 3 pedals, a rear wheel drive platform and preferably an inline 6 or V8 engine.(ofcourse the V6 Camry alternatives would cost more $$$)

    So what is my reasons for buying a hybrid Camry? I can break down my reason with the following numbers:

    My wife's choice of car(she will be mainly driving it): 51 percent
    My fascintation with the technology: 25 percent
    Gas Savings: 24 percent
    Emissions: 0 percent (I hope I am not offending any environmentalists).

    If somebody told me a few weeks ago that I could be this excited about driving a hybrid, I would say they're nuts. But now I am all excited about driving one (hopefully during May or June)

    2) I heard by Canadian sources that the hybrid Camry will be priced below a base Camry XLE V6 which has a MSRP of CDN$ 33.5K. A Prius in Canada sells for an MSRP of CDN$31.2K.

    So a hybrid Camry in Canada should sell at a $1K to $2K premium over a Prius. IMO that makes the Camry hybrid price a compelling value when compared to a Prius or a hybrid Accord which sells in Canada for 37K(although I heard you can get a good discount off the MSRP).

    Only time will tell if my pricing guesstimates are correct.
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Well stated view of the near future

    Thank you.
    In response to your comment on the diesels, don't you agree that we will see more diesel choices coming from the American and European manufacturers than from the Japanese?
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    1) The value of the TCH over the ICE 4c will of course be a personal decision. I think however that the Camry V6's will all be in about the same range of US$25500 to US$27500; from lowest to highest: LE V6, SE V6, TCH 'V6'.

    2) Your info on the LE version of the TCH being just under the XLE V6 corresponds to my own guesstimates as well.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Honda did announce its intention to sell diesels in North America.

    Most likely candidates would be the the TSX and the CRV(both sell as diesels in Europe)
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Somehow I'm willing to predict that we'll see diesels coming sooner from Europe and domestics. I think we'll see the hybrids coming quicker from Japan and shortly thereafter domestics as well, and finally from Europe. By the time it all starts to get saturated, the fuel cells will show up and we'll all be in for another round. Isn't technology incredible?
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    I think Toyota and Nissan are poised and ready to go full blast with trucks as soon as the fuel issue is cleaned up ;) . In addition I just saw an article in yesterday's WSJ where a Free Trade agreement with Thailand is close to being concluded with two sticking points US banking ==> Thailand and Thai ( Yota ) trucks ==> USA. Most Nissan and Toyota trucks overseas are diesels.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Before fuel cells arrive I am looking forward to seeing HCCI engine technologies, mainstream production of plug-in hybrids, hybrids with li-ion batteries , more potent turbodiesels, hybrid diesels.....I guess we have high gas prices to thank for these new endeavors. :(

    hcci

    li-ion/a>
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Let me ask you a question . . . As the overall fuel efficiency of our vehicles increases, do you believe that the oil companies will make the price of fuel go up to compensate?
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Yes absolutely. Their mission, correctly for their shareholders, is to squeeze the most profit out of their existing product line. If diesel become very very popular then I wouldnt be surprised to see diesel going for 30% more than gasoline in order to compensate for it's improved efficiency.

    But even more important is the world market. China and India are such unbelievably huge wildcards that it their growth continues they might be in a position to 'out-bid' us for all natural resources. In the last 5 yrs the prices of basic steel have doubled due to the unrelenting demand from China. Why ship to a low margin market like the US when they can move all they want in China?

    China is 5 times bigger than the US and India is 3 times bigger. The US market is mature and these other two are just toddlers. They could 'bid' everything away from us here.
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Interesting post. We'll need to stay close enough to the hybrid vehicle topic as we proceed through these discussions. Fuel consumption and availability is certainly directly related, however, particularly to one of the core incentives for hybrid technology itself . . . another being cleaner emissions.

    One of the reasons for the spike in diesel fuel that has been suggested is that the commercial trucking industry relies heavily upon diesel availability, and that any increased demand caused by additional passenger cars thereby challenges the supply. Whether that price analysis is true or not, diesel fuel is a lower product on the refinery scale, and I would think that the refineries would just need to adjust accordingly between gasoline and diesel. Hard to say, with so many other factors at play.

    Regardless of the market conditions, it is smart to become more energy-efficient, and the public awareness and acceptance of this is growing . . . finally.

    TagMan
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    yerth10yerth10 Member Posts: 431
    Last year, 5.9 million vehicles were sold in China and that put them ahead of Japan @ 5.8 million vehicles.

    So China is World # 2.

    India sold 1.3 million in 2004 which may place them somewhere around 15th. I dont know how much was sold in 2005.

    Yes, with both countries having increased vehicle sales, we have to look for more fuels.

    Its good that Toyota has started producing Prius in China.
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    ranger2001xltranger2001xlt Member Posts: 85
    'If diesel become very very popular then I wouldnt be surprised to see diesel going for 30% more than gasoline '

    The difference is that if the oil companies overprice diesel in the future, then the comsumer can run their engine on a homemade brew of bio-diesel and leave the oil companies out all together. (Diesel is already selling at a 15% premimum to gas around here).

    People whom run their car on gasoline can't due that...(safely). They are stuck sending their hard earned dollars to corporations who legally fleece the American comsumer all in the name of a catastrophe.
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    rorrrorr Member Posts: 3,630
    "As the overall fuel efficiency of our vehicles increases, do you believe that the oil companies will make the price of fuel go up to compensate?"

    :confuse:

    You seem to be imply that increased efficiency would lead to decreased domestic demand. Correct?

    You also seem to imply that the supply of oil would remain the same but that the oil companies would intentionally jack up the price to make up for that reduced demand. Correct?

    Some folks in here:
    a) love to dream up 'big oil' conspiracies; and....
    b) don't fully comprehend the basic laws of supply/demand and their effect on the market price of a commodity....

    Newsflash - if you sell a commodity, you DON'T increase the price when demand goes down. Doing so only makes the demand go down further. You DECREASE the price so that demand GOES BACK UP.

    However, that's not what would happen. If (and that's a mighty big "if") we purchased enough hybrids to actually REDUCE our demand on oil, what would happen? Remember, oil is a GLOBAL commodity. And, since the U.S. is one of the largest consumers of oil, a reduced U.S. demand would lead to.....?

    Bueller? Anybody? Yes, that's right, a drop in the price (or at least a stabilization in the price) of oil on the global market. So then what? Demand for oil INCREASES (from perhaps....mmmmm....China? India?) And the price of oil goes back up.

    In the end, it's a wash. Tiny little incremental reductions in demand in the U.S. is simply offset (or more than offset) by increased demand elsewhere on the planet.

    Oil is a global commodity. The price of oil will be set by the global DEMAND for oil and the global SUPPLY of oil. Not by some little scheme cooked up on the top floors of Exxon/Mobile.
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    kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Without the sarcasm.. I think it depends much much more on what China and India do and want than how many hybrids are sold in the west. One is a 500 lb Gorilla and the other is a chimp.

    It's naive to think that global decisions affecting global pricing, supply and demand are not being schemed, modelled, planned ( choose your verb ) at the highest levels of the big multinationals. It's their job to do that. And while it's illegal here it is not illegal elsewhere to discuss these variables and plan for the most efficient results. I know for certain it happens in other international industries; oil, autos, coal, etc arent excepted.
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    gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I think you have a pretty good handle on the situation. I might add that there are several other circumstances that could affect our prices here. If Qatar gets their gas to diesel project on line that will add to the supply. Theirs is VERY large and they like us better than most in the area. I don't know if coal to diesel is in the cards for the USA. It could also impact prices. I like having a vehicle for each fuel. The price variables could go the other way with added diesel supply. Diesel was always less than gas till they started adding more tax to diesel than to gas. Look for gas to be more expensive as the rest of the states are required to use low sulfur gasoline.
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    bigdave2bigdave2 Member Posts: 40
    all very true

    and if we can just get rid of these pesky federal agencies, it will be loyal to do in the U.S.

    all in good time, all in good time

    and if you think states will have the huevos to regulate pricing....well, I guess we'll see, but I don't think many states (California? Mass.? New York?) will be doing that. And all the economic growth just might occur in the states that don't (i.e. Texas)
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    tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I only asked the question and definately did not imply anything. There were some interesting views and responses . . . yours particularly! Thanks.
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    deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    As the overall fuel efficiency of our vehicles increases, do you believe that the oil companies will make the price of fuel go up to compensate?

    Two conflicting views mentioned in this forum can be reconciled.

    1)Oil prices should remain high due to supply and demand and not because of money grubbing oil companies. Supply(most of the lowest cost oil reserves are in high risk countries) and Demand(China, India and all emerging countries are developing a huge thirst for fuel) are not a good combination for low fuel prices.

    2) It is true that hybrids and diesels as they exist today will have a miniscule effect on fuel supply and demand. BUT I do admire Toyota the most among all auto makers for being the most ambitious in improvising its hybrid technology.

    Oh yes I know that the 32 to 36 MPG real world mileage of a hybrid Camry is a joke in terms of saving the world from excessive fuel consumption. And I know the Toyota marketing for it HSD is a bit off the top in terms of credibility. BUT at least Toyota is doing a helluva a job in its first step in a disruptive technology that may revolutionize drivetrains of the future.

    The former head of the CIA( I forgot his name) mentioned that political/economic security for the USA and all Democracies are dependent on the mass production of plug-in hybrids. Many may think his views are a bit extreme, but IMO his not extreme at all.
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