Not a very good analysis, because this is his major point:
The batteries were not worth the extra weight. Extra power could be produced better with a second engine. The disappointing reality was that a simpler and lighter car would perform better than the sophisticated hybrid we had been so proud of.
So basically what he is saying is that we should abandon Hybrids and start giving tax credits for Chevy Aveos and Yarises. Nonsense of course.
Show me a Yaris that gets 55 MPG or in the case of the Insight up to 94 MPG for a lifetime tank average, and I will "forget hybrids."
This is his "perfect future car":
The future car should be an enclosed streamlined version of his quadcycle. It will travel 40 mph with 6 horsepower and get 100 mpg. A prototype of such a vehicle is being designed for demonstration by students at Union College.
Like a car like that would be accepted widely !!???!! Who's going to buy a 6 horsepower quadcycle that maxxes at 40 MPH? What is this guy smoking? Um, yes, that's a SOLID ANALYSIS for sure !!!
Honda has sold 137,452 hybrids since it introduced the Insight in 1999, and now offers hybrid Civic and Accord models. A Honda spokesman says the company will introduce an all-new Civic hybrid in 2009 that will be less expensive than the current model.
I did not realize there was an all-new HCH coming in 2009. Did I just miss that tidbit or is this new information?
The opinion piece to which I was referring was saying "we don't need no stinking hybrids we just need smaller engines" and my reply was "even with smaller engines (unless you get so small that nobody will buy it) gas vehicles cannot beat hybrids" and that remains true.
As far as the little Euro diesels, we have no comparable hybrids to compare it to.
The closest real comparison we have is the 2006 Civic Hybrid in the US versus the 2006 Civic 2.2 i-CTDi diesel from the UK.
In that comparison, the diesel loses in MPG by about 5 miles per gallon.
While Hybrids are steadily increasing their share (1.8 % in Aug-2006), the CUV's have already overtaken SUV's in sales.
The market went from SUV to CUV and the next step is Wagon/Hatchback. Ideally the automakers can call them MUV (Mini Utility Vehicle), since the market likes such words.
Also the Mini Van market is declining as the smaller CUV's are offering 7 seater option.
It will make sense for Honda to launch an improvised (ideally Full Hybrid) version of Civic in 2009 / 2010 instead of launching a wholly new model.
Civic is a versatile model that comes in 2,3,4 & 5 door version (atleast in Europe) and also Gasolene, Diesel, CNG and Hybrid versions.
A Hybrid version of Civic-5 Door will compete with Prius. Civic is the only Hybrid model from Honda that Sells well. Insight is going down, while Accord (with V6 engine) is not doing very well.
I think he is looking at long term ownership and simplicity of design. Neither of which we have in the hybrids. If you were to keep a hybrid the average life of a car in the USA you may find it is a maintenance nightmare. Many already have in the very short lifespan of the current hybrids. Both the HCH and Prius owners have reported paying in the $2000 range for a simple catalytic convertor replacement. Not covered by warranty. The cost of precious metals required to get that SULEV emissions rating will start showing up before long. It already has in the increased price of the cars.
I think the author was looking at cars from a practical standpoint. He had already built a complex hybrid and realized the flaws in all the added complexity. For example buying a basic Camry for $18k or a basic Camry Hybrid for $27k. You would have to drive the TCH 300k miles to make up the difference in gas cost. Not many people put 300k miles on a vehicle.
If saving fossil fuel is a high priority, a Camry hybrid is not the best choice. The TCH seems to be a decent luxo barge that gets good mileage. I don't think the author was addressing those that luxury is more important than all out fuel economy.
Gary, he was promoting a little 40 mph max speed 6 horsepower QUADCAR basically. Like I said - how "practical" is that for most of America? Not very, I'm sure you will agree.
Even if the Government subsidized them with $5000 rebates and the cars cost $15,000, I doubt they would sell very well.
Toyota has tasked it's engineers with cutting 50% of the hybrid components and has targeted a 94 MPG Prius. That's innovation at work. That's building a less costly, more efficient car that people can and WILL buy.
And your comment about the Camry - like I have said before, and that automakers and car buyers are proving in record numbers, there is more to hybrid technology than just "maxxing out the MPG." The goal is to beat the comparable gasser by hybridizing the car and thus achieving higher MPG from the same vehicle.
Last I heard, there are 12 more hybrid vehicles to be released by the end of the 2008 model year.
This is the 40 MPH car I am trying to deal on. Just plug it in and use it for the many trips to shop. As soon as they get it approved for street use in CA I will be driving one. Even all electric cars have big obstacles in this state.
But, the report concludes: ``At this time, it is recommended that no additional hybrid decals be issued beyond the 75,000 decal limit . . . given that the (carpool) demand is likely to grow further as a result of the high cost of gasoline.''
Each of the highways had free-flowing carpool lane traffic in the spring of 2005, and each had deteriorated to stop-and-go conditions by this spring.
Hybrids in carpool lanes create congestion and increase pollution!
"The carpool law was seen as a way to boost hybrid sales, thus helping to cut down on automobile emissions and increase fuel efficiency. It seems to have worked: There are around 115,000 hybrids now registered in the state, up from under 60,000 a year ago.
Schwarzenegger and his opponent this fall, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, both were sponsors of legislation two years that kicked off the state's hybrid-carpool program.
Santa Clara County Supervisor and MTC commissioner Jim Beall cautioned that hybrids may not be to blame for increased traffic delays.
``There are a lot of reasons,'' Beall said. ``More people are working, so you have more people driving.
``You need to look at the bigger picture. All cars should be hybrids or get better fuel efficiency. We need to go in that direction.''"
"About 15 percent of cars in that lane now are solo hybrids.''
Only 15 percent of the carpool cars are solo hybrids, huh? Does not seem to indicate that they are the reason for the congestion. The other 85% of the cars have NO IMPACT while the 15 percent of solo hybrid drivers are the PROBLEM? Not logical, Mr. Spock.
My guess is that the Governator will expand the program.
In my experience, driving the freeways of Southern California, near my office, the HOV lane congestion comes from crazy idiots doing only 50 MPH while talking on their cell phones, sending a FAX and fiddling with their I-Pod's.
I suspect, but cannot verify, they are also eating granola bars as well. :P
"The carpool law was seen as a way to boost hybrid sales, thus helping to cut down on automobile emissions and increase fuel efficiency. It seems to have worked: There are around 115,000 hybrids now registered in the state, up from under 60,000 a year ago.
Do you agree or disagree that hybrids require incentives to get people to buy them?
Are hybrids such a poor choice that they need tax credit and carpool lane bribes?
Still, as the popularity of hybrids and car pooling rises with gas prices, any program that allows single-occupancy vehicles to use the state's car pool lanes is redundant and could seriously irritate commuters, said Stuart Cohen, executive director of the Transportation and Land Use Coalition.
"The problem is many of our (car pool) lanes are already slowing down to the same speed as the regular lanes," Cohen said. "And at that point we're deterring people from trying to get out of their cars and form a car pool and get on buses and we may be encouraging people to switch back and drive alone."
IMO there is nothing wrong with hybrids in carpool lanes as long as they are being used for carpooling.
Let's not get into a long diatribe about this, but here are the facts:
Most people do NOT put their money where their mouth is when it comes to buying a cleaner burning, higher mileage vehicle. GM says their market research indicates that people will not even pay $300 extra for a PZEV car.
When gas was $1.50 a gallon and the SUV craze was in it's full throes, then YES Hybrids needed incentives.
BUT NOT BECAUSE THEY WERE A POOR CHOICE.
It was mostly because the Insight and Generation 1 Prius were smallish and had reputations of being too small and too quirky for mainstream drivers. There was and still is a serious "lack of consumer education" and "higher sticker prices" coupled with "low-ish availability" which drives a lack of hybrid sales. Not to mention the flawed EPA test which leads to unrealistic MPG expectations and gets reported on constantly by the media.
So hybrids DO have a lot of issues to overcome, no doubt, but it has nothing to do with the viability of the technology.
The true test will be in the upcoming two years when these things converge:
1. Twelve more hybrid choices hit the road by the end of 2008. 2. The tax incentives (and maybe the hybrid carpool lane incentive) go away. 3. Gas prices come back down to around $2 and stay there.
If hybrids continue a strong sales curve as they have seen in the last 2+ years, then they are here to stay.
If the above three factors lead to lower sales figures, then hybrids maybe CANNOT stand on their own merit.
You know where my money lies......:) PS I'd like to add that anyone who buys a hybrid JUST and ONLY for the HOV perk - you need to move closer to your job and get a city-streets commute.
"As far as the little Euro diesels, we have no comparable hybrids to compare it to.
The closest real comparison we have is the 2006 Civic Hybrid in the US versus the 2006 Civic 2.2 i-CTDi diesel from the UK.
In that comparison, the diesel loses in MPG by about 5 miles per gallon. "
But gains in the maturity of diesel technology, and the (relative) simplicity of the diesel compared with electric/gasoline hybrids. No one has any questions about the battery on a diesel.
Only 5 MPG difference? Sign me up! Oh, that's right, they aren't available here. If they were, I think they would take up a lot of hybrid sales. The hybrids have been very slow in European sales, mostly because people "over there" prefer diesels. :shades:
CAMPBELL, Calif.--Sept. 8, 2006--PRIMEDIA's IntelliChoice.com, the leading source for automotive ownership cost and value analysis, today announced its "Best Deals of the Month" for September 2006. The list shows that hybrid vehicles are proving their value for the long haul.
"The Prius gets all the hype, but its tenure on our Best Deals list speaks volumes about hybrid technology," said James Bell, publisher of IntelliChoice.com. "It also is important to point that a number of other hybrid vehicles have consistently made our list for most of the past year. These include hybrid versions of the Toyota Highlander and Ford Escape. Throw them in with Mercedes' diesel-powered E320 CDI and you see that alternative fuel vehicles are making inroads in two segments that might surprise people: SUVs and luxury vehicles."
"There is an article on a competing forum that states sales prices are decreasing for both new and used Prius."
That is simply Economics 101. As the number in demand and the number made equalize somewhat, prices must fall....
That shows acceptance and will result in more being made, and the normal economics of the auto industry will kick in, and even more people will be able to afford buying one, once they do not have to pay full MSRP.
"That is simply Economics 101. As the number in demand and the number made equalize somewhat, prices must fall....
That shows acceptance and will result in more being made, and the normal economics of the auto industry will kick in, and even more people will be able to afford buying one, once they do not have to pay full MSRP."
It also means that people were rushing to get the tax credit while it was at maximum. I personally think this is what is causing the price decreases, as both dealers and buyers realize the credit is less (as of 1 October 2006).
However, the real question is if more people will drift into hybrids. If only a certain percentage accept the hybrid concept, sales may decline, causing price pressure.
BTW, unleaded was $2.02 in Iowa this morning. If gas doesn't remain high, hybrids will lose some appeal.
CR concluded that Ethanol costs more and is cleaner.
Ethanol is an important part of the solution to reduce dependence on petroleum. It is easy to find ethanol in some areas and nearly impossible in others. It is not THE SOLUTION, it is one small portion of many needed alternate energy sources.
Well, what they actually concluded is, that it is a scam, and actually significantly reduces the MPG....
"But after putting a 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe FFV through an array of fuel economy, acceleration, and emissions tests, and interviewing more than 50 experts on ethanol fuel, CR determined that E85 will cost consumers more money than gasoline and that there are concerns about whether the government’s support of FFVs is really helping the U.S. achieve energy independence. Among our findings:
*The fuel economy of the Tahoe dropped 27 percent when running on E85 compared with gasoline, from an already low 14 mpg overall to 10 mpg (rounded to the nearest mpg). This is the lowest fuel mileage we’ve gotten from any vehicle in recent years.
*With the retail pump price of E85 averaging $2.91 per gallon in August, according to the Oil Price Information Service, which tracks petroleum and other fuel prices, a 27 percent fuel-economy penalty means drivers would have paid an average of $3.99 for the energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline.
When we calculated the Tahoe’s driving range, we found that it decreased to about 300 miles on a full tank of E85 compared with about 440 on gasoline. So you have to fill up more often with E85."
A 140 mile loss per tank is something most people won't be willing to take.
Well, since you come from where you do, and have the background you do, then anyone opposed to Ethanol is suspect.
Given the facts that Consumers Union/Consumer Reports came to on their own, which only mirrors those of us in Government have known for years, I think the selling of Ethanol as some good idea certainly ranks as one of the greatest scams foisted on the public in years. :P
More from Consumers Union:
"Despite the avid support of the Bush administration and major American car companies, E85 is unlikely to fill more than a small percentage of U.S. energy needs. E85, which is 85 percent ethanol, emits less smog-causing pollutants than gasoline, but provides fewer miles per gallon, costs more, and is hard to find outside the Midwest.
*Government support for flexible-fuel vehicles, which can run on E85, is indirectly causing more gasoline consumption rather than less.
When we took our Tahoe to a state-certified emissions-test facility in Connecticut and had a standard emissions test performed, we found a significant decrease in smog-forming oxides of nitrogen when using E85. Ethanol, however, emits acetaldehyde, a probable carcinogen and something that standard emissions-testing equipment is not designed to measure. But that might be a relatively minor evil. “Acetaldehyde is bad,” says James Cannon, president of Energy Futures, an alternative-transportation publication, “but not nearly as bad as some of the emissions from gasoline.”
You could expect a similar decrease in gas mileage in any current FFV. That’s because ethanol has a lower energy content than gasoline: 75,670 British thermal units per gallon instead of 115,400, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. So you have to burn more fuel to generate the same amount of energy. In addition, FFV engines are designed to run more efficiently on gasoline. E85 fuel economy could approach that of gasoline if manufacturers optimized engines for that fuel.
When it comes to ethanol’s pros and cons, there’s no shortage of disagreement. One centers on whether ethanol is an effective petroleum substitute, because of how much energy it takes to produce it. David Pimentel, a Cornell University professor of ecology and agricultural sciences, who served on a government committee in the 1980s that studied ethanol, says it takes almost 30 percent more energy to grow corn and turn it into ethanol than the ethanol contains." :surprise:
Tad Patzek, professor of geoengineering at the University of California at Berkeley. He says the “equivalent CO2 emissions from corn ethanol are 50 percent higher than those from gasoline.”
A third debate focuses on the practice of making motor fuel out of a food crop. The government says corn is not a good long-term fuel source because it diverts corn from the food supply.
In 2005, 13.6 percent of the corn crop was used to produce ethanol, according to the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). But only industrial-corn varieties are used, not the sweet corn we eat.
Still, Bruce Noel, chairman of the NCGA’s ethanol committee, estimates that ethanol production drives up the price of corn by 5 to 10 cents a bushel. That raises the price of corn-fed beef and other foods. Today corn sells for about $2.20 per bushel. “The folks who feed corn to cattle are already expressing concerns about rising corn prices,” Washburn says. “Once corn prices approach $3, these concerns will intensify,” which will increase the demand to produce ethanol from other feedstocks.
Most experts don’t see the future of the ethanol industry taking root in America’s cornfields. A more promising long-term solution is cellulosic ethanol, which can be made from a variety of other sources such as corn stover (leaves, stalks, and other leftover parts), rye straw, wood pulp, and possibly switchgrass (commonly used for hay). In Brazil, ethanol is made from sugarcane.
“If this country is going to go big into ethanol, we need to tap into cellulosic ethanol,” says Friedman of the UCS, “because it’s cleaner and requires less fossil fuels than corn” to produce.
Cellulosic ethanol also holds the promise of much higher capacity than corn, possibly as much as 45 billion gallons. In terms of greenhouse gases, “cellulosic ethanol, we think, has the ability to reduce CO2 emissions by close to half” compared with corn ethanol, says Jerry Martin, communications director for the California EPA’s Air Resources Board.
Creating cellulosic ethanol requires expensive enzymes--about 25 cents’ worth per gallon of ethanol. But the federal government’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) expects the price to drop by half in the next few years. Iogen, a Canadian biotechnology company that produces the enzymes, says it plans to build the first full-scale commercial cellulosic ethanol plant by 2010.
A 2005 study conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that by 2030 ethanol from corn and cellulose could replace 30 percent of U.S. oil consumption--about the same as the U.S. currently imports from OPEC nations. Called the Billion Ton Study, it assumes that 1 billion tons of organic material could be used, with no loss of corn for food or feed, from resources such as forest waste and organic residue, and from energy crops such as switchgrass.
But there are major challenges. Friedman estimates that to replace one-third of gasoline demand with ethanol even by 2050 without overwhelming land use would require three times the land currently used for crops and doubling both the efficiency of making ethanol and its fuel economy--a tall order. Moreover, there is dispute over whether it is even feasible to produce ethanol from switchgrass.
Thats even and exactly on target for about 100K again. Gotta make room the the Camry hybrid too both in the market and more importantly in the supply chain.
Beginning in Q4 - on an annualized basis 100K Prius 100K TCH 50K HH/400h
I am sure you consider Toyota everything. I wonder what you would be saying if you sold Honda? Their car sales are off dramatically. And they have very good mileage cars for sale. The hybrids in particular are not doing well at all. Honda Accord Hybrid off 79% year to date. The Civic Hybrid that took off like a rocket is down 20.8% for this year.
One of the biggest transformations for the 5,100- employee Kokomo operation could come if Delphi lands orders to make hybrid systems for the Toyota Camry sedan.
HYBRIDS would outsell diesels in Australia within 10 years but fuel cells would fail to take off, DaimlerChrysler's director of hybrid technology said last week.
Petrol-electric cars would become an everyday sight here by 2015, Dr Andreas Truckenbrodt said, with Australia likely to follow American buying patterns rather than European. However, Dr Truckenbrodt, who was here to review the two-year trial of fuel cell buses in Perth, reversed years of predictions by DaimlerChrysler by saying hydrogen power would be limited to niche vehicles.
"Your repertoire of vehicle sizes and driving styles is closer to North America than Europe," he said. "Europe will be overwhelmingly diesel, but the open question is Japan."
Forecasts pointed to the US vehicle market being 65 per cent petrol, 25 per cent hybrid and 10 per cent diesel in 2015, he said.
According to the company, hybrid buyers expect to improve fuel consumption by 21 mpg (do they think hybrids run on air?), but only achieve an improvement of 9 mpg. Interestingly, buyers of diesel cars in the USA expect an improvement of 21 mpg and achieve a 12 mpg gain.
Hybrids only improve mpg by 9 mpg?
VW is the most environmentally friendly manufacturer in the USA :surprise:
Curious statement... According to the company, hybrid buyers expect to improve fuel consumption by 21 mpg (do they think hybrids run on air?), but only achieve an improvement of 9 mpg
Going from four 4c Camry's getting about 30 mpg on average to a Prius getting 48.5 mph combined is well above the 9 mpg figure.
Those that write these statements aren't actual drivers that much is certain. In addition they do little or no research on sites like GreenHybrid, or they cherry pick their data; e.g. study onnly Camry's.. 4c vs TCH.
Of course that ignores that the 4c LE such as what I used to drive is nowhere near the same vehicle as the TCH in features or in power.
But the education process goes on, one person at a time.
Pretty neat! Great idea to save some tax money on fuel if more government departments used hybrids.
In the past fiscal year, the fleet of vehicles traveled 55,420 miles. In the Crown Victoria, such travel is estimated to consume about 5,833 gallons of gas; by comparison, the Prius only burned 1,352 gallons, an astronomical difference of about 4,500 gallons of fuel.
The switch to the Prius saved an estimated total of $15,828 in fuel costs, Finucane said. :surprise:
I think it is a good idea with all the stop and go driving. They are not as apt to go chasing people in fast cars, causing death and destruction either.
That is the second time I've seen the Camry 4cyl compared to the Prius. Edmund's also has a table doing the same thing as a way to show that hybrids make sense. Am I missing something here? Why aren't we comparing the Camry 4cyl to the Camry hybrid? Wouldn't that be a more legitimate comparison? You know, apples to apples.
Imagine this scenario. I build a car somewhat similar to a Camry in terms of interior space. But instead of 3300 lbs it weighs 2800. Instead of a 2.4L engine I put in a 1.5L that only produces about 60% the hp and torque. Instead of a 5 spd automatic I use a CVT. Now we aren't talking about any hybrid technology yet. How much better mileage would this vehicle get than the Camry? I'll bet its around 10 mpg. Now we through in some hybrid components and achieve another 10 mpg. Does it really make sense to conclude that hybrids get 20 mpg more?
That is the second time I've seen the Camry 4cyl compared to the Prius. Edmund's also has a table doing the same thing as a way to show that hybrids make sense. Am I missing something here? Why aren't we comparing the Camry 4cyl to the Camry hybrid? Wouldn't that be a more legitimate comparison? You know, apples to apples.
The Prius has no ICE counterpart so the closest vehicle to it in the Toyota line is the 4c LE Camry. Actually the closest vehicle to the Prius in size, performance and fuel economy is the Jetta TDI. Both are nearly identical.
One certainly can compare the 4c Camry to the TCH but you have to make a major adjustment in allowing some value for the power of a V6 ( TCH ) vs a 4c. In the TCH you get V6 performance and the fuel economy of a Corolla. The 4c Camry can't offer that.
Imagine this scenario. I build a car somewhat similar to a Camry in terms of interior space. But instead of 3300 lbs it weighs 2800. Instead of a 2.4L engine I put in a 1.5L that only produces about 60% the hp and torque. Instead of a 5 spd automatic I use a CVT. Now we aren't talking about any hybrid technology yet. [ yes this is the YARIS, and it does get about 39 mpg ] How much better mileage would this vehicle get than the Camry? I'll bet its around 10 mpg. Now we through in some hybrid components and achieve another 10 mpg. Does it really make sense to conclude that hybrids get 20 mpg more?
But the problem is the initial presumption. A vehicle the size of the Camry ( with all it's safety features ) weighing in at 2800#. I am certain that if it was possible to do so then Toyota and every other manufacturer would be doing it ( all aluminum/plastic? ). I was a supplier to the automotive industry for 20 years and they would fight over 1 lb of extra weight.
The 1.5L ICE such as in the Prius/Yaris but being put alone into a Camry would give a woefully underpowered vehicle. It wouldn't sell to anyone and it might not get all that great fuel economy because it would be pushing a much heavier vehicle than the Yaris. Now add the HSD bringing the combined HP up to about 115 such as the Prius system and it still wouldn't sell. It's still too little power for too large a vehicle. That's why the Prius exists. It's slightly smaller and lighter than the Camry so the 1.5L + HSD works well.
The Prius has no ICE counterpart so the closest vehicle to it in the Toyota line is the 4c LE Camry.
IMO the closest vehicle to the Prius in Toyota's U.S. lineup is the Matrix. Both are 5-door hatchbacks; the Camry is a sedan. Compare size and interior space of the Prius vs. the Matrix--almost identical.
Comments
The batteries were not worth the extra weight. Extra power could be produced better with a second engine. The disappointing reality was that a simpler and lighter car would perform better than the sophisticated hybrid we had been so proud of.
So basically what he is saying is that we should abandon Hybrids and start giving tax credits for Chevy Aveos and Yarises. Nonsense of course.
Show me a Yaris that gets 55 MPG or in the case of the Insight up to 94 MPG for a lifetime tank average, and I will "forget hybrids."
This is his "perfect future car":
The future car should be an enclosed streamlined version of his quadcycle. It will travel 40 mph with 6 horsepower and get 100 mpg. A prototype of such a vehicle is being designed for demonstration by students at Union College.
Like a car like that would be accepted widely !!???!! Who's going to buy a 6 horsepower quadcycle that maxxes at 40 MPH? What is this guy smoking? Um, yes, that's a SOLID ANALYSIS for sure !!!
Honda has sold 137,452 hybrids since it introduced the Insight in 1999, and now offers hybrid Civic and Accord models. A Honda spokesman says the company will introduce an all-new Civic hybrid in 2009 that will be less expensive than the current model.
I did not realize there was an all-new HCH coming in 2009. Did I just miss that tidbit or is this new information?
Yaris 1.4L D-4D is rated at 62.8 mpg (Imperial Gallon) on combined cycle. Would be no problem at all obtaining 55 mpg lifetime avg..
As far as the little Euro diesels, we have no comparable hybrids to compare it to.
The closest real comparison we have is the 2006 Civic Hybrid in the US versus the 2006 Civic 2.2 i-CTDi diesel from the UK.
In that comparison, the diesel loses in MPG by about 5 miles per gallon.
Close but No Cigar :shades:
Aug-2006 is the record month for Hybrid sales in USA.
26,189 Units, 1.8% of LDV Market
Prius - 11,117
Camry - 4,977
Highlander - 2,581
Rx 400h - 1,514
GS 450h - 192
Civic - 3,411
Accord - 499
Insight - 109
Escape/Mariner - 1,789
Vue Hybrid - Not Known
The market went from SUV to CUV and the next step is Wagon/Hatchback. Ideally the automakers can call them MUV (Mini Utility Vehicle), since the market likes such words.
Also the Mini Van market is declining as the smaller CUV's are offering 7 seater option.
Civic is a versatile model that comes in 2,3,4 & 5 door version (atleast in Europe) and also Gasolene, Diesel, CNG and Hybrid versions.
A Hybrid version of Civic-5 Door will compete with Prius.
Civic is the only Hybrid model from Honda that Sells well. Insight is going down, while Accord (with V6 engine) is not doing very well.
I think the author was looking at cars from a practical standpoint. He had already built a complex hybrid and realized the flaws in all the added complexity. For example buying a basic Camry for $18k or a basic Camry Hybrid for $27k. You would have to drive the TCH 300k miles to make up the difference in gas cost. Not many people put 300k miles on a vehicle.
If saving fossil fuel is a high priority, a Camry hybrid is not the best choice. The TCH seems to be a decent luxo barge that gets good mileage. I don't think the author was addressing those that luxury is more important than all out fuel economy.
Even if the Government subsidized them with $5000 rebates and the cars cost $15,000, I doubt they would sell very well.
Toyota has tasked it's engineers with cutting 50% of the hybrid components and has targeted a 94 MPG Prius. That's innovation at work. That's building a less costly, more efficient car that people can and WILL buy.
And your comment about the Camry - like I have said before, and that automakers and car buyers are proving in record numbers, there is more to hybrid technology than just "maxxing out the MPG." The goal is to beat the comparable gasser by hybridizing the car and thus achieving higher MPG from the same vehicle.
Last I heard, there are 12 more hybrid vehicles to be released by the end of the 2008 model year.
Another good choice
But, the report concludes: ``At this time, it is recommended that no additional hybrid decals be issued beyond the 75,000 decal limit . . . given that the (carpool) demand is likely to grow further as a result of the high cost of gasoline.''
Each of the highways had free-flowing carpool lane traffic in the spring of 2005, and each had deteriorated to stop-and-go conditions by this spring.
Hybrids in carpool lanes create congestion and increase pollution!
"The carpool law was seen as a way to boost hybrid sales, thus helping to cut down on automobile emissions and increase fuel efficiency. It seems to have worked: There are around 115,000 hybrids now registered in the state, up from under 60,000 a year ago.
Schwarzenegger and his opponent this fall, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, both were sponsors of legislation two years that kicked off the state's hybrid-carpool program.
Santa Clara County Supervisor and MTC commissioner Jim Beall cautioned that hybrids may not be to blame for increased traffic delays.
``There are a lot of reasons,'' Beall said. ``More people are working, so you have more people driving.
``You need to look at the bigger picture. All cars should be hybrids or get better fuel efficiency. We need to go in that direction.''"
"About 15 percent of cars in that lane now are solo hybrids.''
Only 15 percent of the carpool cars are solo hybrids, huh? Does not seem to indicate that they are the reason for the congestion. The other 85% of the cars have NO IMPACT while the 15 percent of solo hybrid drivers are the PROBLEM? Not logical, Mr. Spock.
My guess is that the Governator will expand the program.
I suspect, but cannot verify, they are also eating granola bars as well. :P
Do you agree or disagree that hybrids require incentives to get people to buy them?
Are hybrids such a poor choice that they need tax credit and carpool lane bribes?
Still, as the popularity of hybrids and car pooling rises with gas prices, any program that allows single-occupancy vehicles to use the state's car pool lanes is redundant and could seriously irritate commuters, said Stuart Cohen, executive director of the Transportation and Land Use Coalition.
"The problem is many of our (car pool) lanes are already slowing down to the same speed as the regular lanes," Cohen said. "And at that point we're deterring people from trying to get out of their cars and form a car pool and get on buses and we may be encouraging people to switch back and drive alone."
IMO there is nothing wrong with hybrids in carpool lanes as long as they are being used for carpooling.
Most people do NOT put their money where their mouth is when it comes to buying a cleaner burning, higher mileage vehicle. GM says their market research indicates that people will not even pay $300 extra for a PZEV car.
When gas was $1.50 a gallon and the SUV craze was in it's full throes, then YES Hybrids needed incentives.
BUT NOT BECAUSE THEY WERE A POOR CHOICE.
It was mostly because the Insight and Generation 1 Prius were smallish and had reputations of being too small and too quirky for mainstream drivers. There was and still is a serious "lack of consumer education" and "higher sticker prices" coupled with "low-ish availability" which drives a lack of hybrid sales. Not to mention the flawed EPA test which leads to unrealistic MPG expectations and gets reported on constantly by the media.
So hybrids DO have a lot of issues to overcome, no doubt, but it has nothing to do with the viability of the technology.
The true test will be in the upcoming two years when these things converge:
1. Twelve more hybrid choices hit the road by the end of 2008.
2. The tax incentives (and maybe the hybrid carpool lane incentive) go away.
3. Gas prices come back down to around $2 and stay there.
If hybrids continue a strong sales curve as they have seen in the last 2+ years, then they are here to stay.
If the above three factors lead to lower sales figures, then hybrids maybe CANNOT stand on their own merit.
You know where my money lies......:)
PS I'd like to add that anyone who buys a hybrid JUST and ONLY for the HOV perk - you need to move closer to your job and get a city-streets commute.
The closest real comparison we have is the 2006 Civic Hybrid in the US versus the 2006 Civic 2.2 i-CTDi diesel from the UK.
In that comparison, the diesel loses in MPG by about 5 miles per gallon. "
But gains in the maturity of diesel technology, and the (relative) simplicity of the diesel compared with electric/gasoline hybrids. No one has any questions about the battery on a diesel.
Only 5 MPG difference? Sign me up! Oh, that's right, they aren't available here. If they were, I think they would take up a lot of hybrid sales. The hybrids have been very slow in European sales, mostly because people "over there" prefer diesels. :shades:
This looks promising.
CAMPBELL, Calif.--Sept. 8, 2006--PRIMEDIA's IntelliChoice.com, the leading source for automotive ownership cost and value analysis, today announced its "Best Deals of the Month" for September 2006. The list shows that hybrid vehicles are proving their value for the long haul.
"The Prius gets all the hype, but its tenure on our Best Deals list speaks volumes about hybrid technology," said James Bell, publisher of IntelliChoice.com. "It also is important to point that a number of other hybrid vehicles have consistently made our list for most of the past year. These include hybrid versions of the Toyota Highlander and Ford Escape. Throw them in with Mercedes' diesel-powered E320 CDI and you see that alternative fuel vehicles are making inroads in two segments that might surprise people: SUVs and luxury vehicles."
There is an article on a competing forum that states sales prices are decreasing for both new and used Prius.
Fact remains that Intellichoice is tracking this stuff monthly and Prius is still top of the heap.
Hybrids well represented
More hybrids.
That is simply Economics 101. As the number in demand and the number made equalize somewhat, prices must fall....
That shows acceptance and will result in more being made, and the normal economics of the auto industry will kick in, and even more people will be able to afford buying one, once they do not have to pay full MSRP.
FYI: That is a good thing!
That shows acceptance and will result in more being made, and the normal economics of the auto industry will kick in, and even more people will be able to afford buying one, once they do not have to pay full MSRP."
It also means that people were rushing to get the tax credit while it was at maximum. I personally think this is what is causing the price decreases, as both dealers and buyers realize the credit is less (as of 1 October 2006).
However, the real question is if more people will drift into hybrids. If only a certain percentage accept the hybrid concept, sales may decline, causing price pressure.
BTW, unleaded was $2.02 in Iowa this morning. If gas doesn't remain high, hybrids will lose some appeal.
Specifically, in Reno and Northern California, it ranges from $2.90 to $3.01. :mad:
I wonder how much that stupid Ethanol is?
CA and the West Coast could always go back to the MTBE. :sick:
Or how about an E85 hybrid for the ethanol?
E85 Hybrid
The ethanol myth, Consumer Reports' E85 tests show that you’ll get cleaner emissions but poorer fuel economy ...IF you can find it!
Ethanol is an important part of the solution to reduce dependence on petroleum. It is easy to find ethanol in some areas and nearly impossible in others. It is not THE SOLUTION, it is one small portion of many needed alternate energy sources.
"But after putting a 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe FFV through an array of fuel economy, acceleration, and emissions tests, and interviewing more than 50 experts on ethanol fuel, CR determined that E85 will cost consumers more money than gasoline and that there are concerns about whether the government’s support of FFVs is really helping the U.S. achieve energy independence. Among our findings:
*The fuel economy of the Tahoe dropped 27 percent when running on E85 compared with gasoline, from an already low 14 mpg overall to 10 mpg (rounded to the nearest mpg). This is the lowest fuel mileage we’ve gotten from any vehicle in recent years.
*With the retail pump price of E85 averaging $2.91 per gallon in August, according to the Oil Price Information Service, which tracks petroleum and other fuel prices, a 27 percent fuel-economy penalty means drivers would have paid an average of $3.99 for the energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline.
When we calculated the Tahoe’s driving range, we found that it decreased to about 300 miles on a full tank of E85 compared with about 440 on gasoline. So you have to fill up more often with E85."
A 140 mile loss per tank is something most people won't be willing to take.
Please explain how ethanol can possibly be a scam.
Be advised I've seen the entire process of ethanol production process and am from a farming background so I'm not going to accept and false info..
Given the facts that Consumers Union/Consumer Reports came to on their own, which only mirrors those of us in Government have known for years, I think the selling of Ethanol as some good idea certainly ranks as one of the greatest scams foisted on the public in years. :P
More from Consumers Union:
"Despite the avid support of the Bush administration and major American car companies, E85 is unlikely to fill more than a small percentage of U.S. energy needs. E85, which is 85 percent ethanol, emits less smog-causing pollutants than gasoline, but provides fewer miles per gallon, costs more, and is hard to find outside the Midwest.
*Government support for flexible-fuel vehicles, which can run on E85, is indirectly causing more gasoline consumption rather than less.
When we took our Tahoe to a state-certified emissions-test facility in Connecticut and had a standard emissions test performed, we found a significant decrease in smog-forming oxides of nitrogen when using E85. Ethanol, however, emits acetaldehyde, a probable carcinogen and something that standard emissions-testing equipment is not designed to measure. But that might be a relatively minor evil. “Acetaldehyde is bad,” says James Cannon, president of Energy Futures, an alternative-transportation publication, “but not nearly as bad as some of the emissions from gasoline.”
You could expect a similar decrease in gas mileage in any current FFV. That’s because ethanol has a lower energy content than gasoline: 75,670 British thermal units per gallon instead of 115,400, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. So you have to burn more fuel to generate the same amount of energy. In addition, FFV engines are designed to run more efficiently on gasoline. E85 fuel economy could approach that of gasoline if manufacturers optimized engines for that fuel.
When it comes to ethanol’s pros and cons, there’s no shortage of disagreement. One centers on whether ethanol is an effective petroleum substitute, because of how much energy it takes to produce it. David Pimentel, a Cornell University professor of ecology and agricultural sciences, who served on a government committee in the 1980s that studied ethanol, says it takes almost 30 percent more energy to grow corn and turn it into ethanol than the ethanol contains." :surprise:
Tad Patzek, professor of geoengineering at the University of California at Berkeley. He says the “equivalent CO2 emissions from corn ethanol are 50 percent higher than those from gasoline.”
A third debate focuses on the practice of making motor fuel out of a food crop. The government says corn is not a good long-term fuel source because it diverts corn from the food supply.
In 2005, 13.6 percent of the corn crop was used to produce ethanol, according to the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). But only industrial-corn varieties are used, not the sweet corn we eat.
Still, Bruce Noel, chairman of the NCGA’s ethanol committee, estimates that ethanol production drives up the price of corn by 5 to 10 cents a bushel. That raises the price of corn-fed beef and other foods. Today corn sells for about $2.20 per bushel. “The folks who feed corn to cattle are already expressing concerns about rising corn prices,” Washburn says. “Once corn prices approach $3, these concerns will intensify,” which will increase the demand to produce ethanol from other feedstocks.
Most experts don’t see the future of the ethanol industry taking root in America’s cornfields. A more promising long-term solution is cellulosic ethanol, which can be made from a variety of other sources such as corn stover (leaves, stalks, and other leftover parts), rye straw, wood pulp, and possibly switchgrass (commonly used for hay). In Brazil, ethanol is made from sugarcane.
“If this country is going to go big into ethanol, we need to tap into cellulosic ethanol,” says Friedman of the UCS, “because it’s cleaner and requires less fossil fuels than corn” to produce.
Cellulosic ethanol also holds the promise of much higher capacity than corn, possibly as much as 45 billion gallons. In terms of greenhouse gases, “cellulosic ethanol, we think, has the ability to reduce CO2 emissions by close to half” compared with corn ethanol, says Jerry Martin, communications director for the California EPA’s Air Resources Board.
Creating cellulosic ethanol requires expensive enzymes--about 25 cents’ worth per gallon of ethanol. But the federal government’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) expects the price to drop by half in the next few years. Iogen, a Canadian biotechnology company that produces the enzymes, says it plans to build the first full-scale commercial cellulosic ethanol plant by 2010.
A 2005 study conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that by 2030 ethanol from corn and cellulose could replace 30 percent of U.S. oil consumption--about the same as the U.S. currently imports from OPEC nations. Called the Billion Ton Study, it assumes that 1 billion tons of organic material could be used, with no loss of corn for food or feed, from resources such as forest waste and organic residue, and from energy crops such as switchgrass.
But there are major challenges. Friedman estimates that to replace one-third of gasoline demand with ethanol even by 2050 without overwhelming land use would require three times the land currently used for crops and doubling both the efficiency of making ethanol and its fuel economy--a tall order. Moreover, there is dispute over whether it is even feasible to produce ethanol from switchgrass.
Beginning in Q4 - on an annualized basis
100K Prius
100K TCH
50K HH/400h
Everything is on target.
I am sure you consider Toyota everything. I wonder what you would be saying if you sold Honda? Their car sales are off dramatically. And they have very good mileage cars for sale. The hybrids in particular are not doing well at all. Honda Accord Hybrid off 79% year to date. The Civic Hybrid that took off like a rocket is down 20.8% for this year.
Honda sales
I still don't think that Toyota will make their 250K hybrid sales goal in the US for 2006.
Delphi comeback
HYBRIDS would outsell diesels in Australia within 10 years but fuel cells would fail to take off, DaimlerChrysler's director of hybrid technology said last week.
Petrol-electric cars would become an everyday sight here by 2015, Dr Andreas Truckenbrodt said, with Australia likely to follow American buying patterns rather than European. However, Dr Truckenbrodt, who was here to review the two-year trial of fuel cell buses in Perth, reversed years of predictions by DaimlerChrysler by saying hydrogen power would be limited to niche vehicles.
"Your repertoire of vehicle sizes and driving styles is closer to North America than Europe," he said. "Europe will be overwhelmingly diesel, but the open question is Japan."
Forecasts pointed to the US vehicle market being 65 per cent petrol, 25 per cent hybrid and 10 per cent diesel in 2015, he said.
According to the company, hybrid buyers expect to improve fuel consumption by 21 mpg (do they think hybrids run on air?), but only achieve an improvement of 9 mpg. Interestingly, buyers of diesel cars in the USA expect an improvement of 21 mpg and achieve a 12 mpg gain.
Hybrids only improve mpg by 9 mpg?
VW is the most environmentally friendly manufacturer in the USA :surprise:
Given where we are now, MPG-wise, and where Hybrids are now, an improvement of 9 MPG is absolutely HUGE!!
That would mean signifigant decreases, at current sales increases for Toyota, in gasoline consumption....
Patience!
According to the company, hybrid buyers expect to improve fuel consumption by 21 mpg (do they think hybrids run on air?), but only achieve an improvement of 9 mpg
Going from four 4c Camry's getting about 30 mpg on average to a Prius getting 48.5 mph combined is well above the 9 mpg figure.
Those that write these statements aren't actual drivers that much is certain. In addition they do little or no research on sites like GreenHybrid, or they cherry pick their data; e.g. study onnly Camry's.. 4c vs TCH.
Of course that ignores that the 4c LE such as what I used to drive is nowhere near the same vehicle as the TCH in features or in power.
But the education process goes on, one person at a time.
Pretty neat! Great idea to save some tax money on fuel if more government departments used hybrids.
In the past fiscal year, the fleet of vehicles traveled 55,420 miles. In the Crown Victoria, such travel is estimated to consume about 5,833 gallons of gas; by comparison, the Prius only burned 1,352 gallons, an astronomical difference of about 4,500 gallons of fuel.
The switch to the Prius saved an estimated total of $15,828 in fuel costs, Finucane said. :surprise:
Imagine this scenario. I build a car somewhat similar to a Camry in terms of interior space. But instead of 3300 lbs it weighs 2800. Instead of a 2.4L engine I put in a 1.5L that only produces about 60% the hp and torque. Instead of a 5 spd automatic I use a CVT. Now we aren't talking about any hybrid technology yet. How much better mileage would this vehicle get than the Camry? I'll bet its around 10 mpg. Now we through in some hybrid components and achieve another 10 mpg. Does it really make sense to conclude that hybrids get 20 mpg more?
The Prius has no ICE counterpart so the closest vehicle to it in the Toyota line is the 4c LE Camry. Actually the closest vehicle to the Prius in size, performance and fuel economy is the Jetta TDI. Both are nearly identical.
One certainly can compare the 4c Camry to the TCH but you have to make a major adjustment in allowing some value for the power of a V6 ( TCH ) vs a 4c. In the TCH you get V6 performance and the fuel economy of a Corolla. The 4c Camry can't offer that.
Imagine this scenario. I build a car somewhat similar to a Camry in terms of interior space. But instead of 3300 lbs it weighs 2800. Instead of a 2.4L engine I put in a 1.5L that only produces about 60% the hp and torque. Instead of a 5 spd automatic I use a CVT. Now we aren't talking about any hybrid technology yet. [ yes this is the YARIS, and it does get about 39 mpg ] How much better mileage would this vehicle get than the Camry? I'll bet its around 10 mpg. Now we through in some hybrid components and achieve another 10 mpg. Does it really make sense to conclude that hybrids get 20 mpg more?
But the problem is the initial presumption. A vehicle the size of the Camry ( with all it's safety features ) weighing in at 2800#. I am certain that if it was possible to do so then Toyota and every other manufacturer would be doing it ( all aluminum/plastic? ). I was a supplier to the automotive industry for 20 years and they would fight over 1 lb of extra weight.
The 1.5L ICE such as in the Prius/Yaris but being put alone into a Camry would give a woefully underpowered vehicle. It wouldn't sell to anyone and it might not get all that great fuel economy because it would be pushing a much heavier vehicle than the Yaris. Now add the HSD bringing the combined HP up to about 115 such as the Prius system and it still wouldn't sell. It's still too little power for too large a vehicle. That's why the Prius exists. It's slightly smaller and lighter than the Camry so the 1.5L + HSD works well.
IMO the closest vehicle to the Prius in Toyota's U.S. lineup is the Matrix. Both are 5-door hatchbacks; the Camry is a sedan. Compare size and interior space of the Prius vs. the Matrix--almost identical.