Well we became smart enough to use an energy source that people were sitting on for centuries and were unaware of; and I believe that's true again.
I have to believe that is true!
Deep under the ocean’s floor and high in the Arctic’s frozen landscape, a potential solution to the world’s looming energy shortage lies trapped in ice.
I don't believe we should waste resources. I am not convinced that hybrids are a logical solution to energy conservation. Smaller, lighter, simpler vehicles make more sense to me. I don't see the hybrids moving US that direction.
Hard to see how lowering emissions and lowering fuel usage is not a "logical step" toward cleaning the environment and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels......
Hybrids are not the ONLY solution, but it's hard to justify that they are not a PART of the solution....
I think you are right that they are potentially a good solution. When I say logical, I am referring to the complexity, cost, pollution, longevity of the hybrids vs a small non-hybrid high mileage low polution vehicle. There are vehicles that fit that bill. whether the American mentality can bring themselves to buying them is another subject. If the hybrids prove to be relatively trouble free for 15 years or 200k miles I would consider that a fairly decent life span for a car. I have two 15 year old cars that run very well. They have had very good care and do not have excessive miles on them. To me keeping a car for a long time is an important conservation effort.
Gary, your personal expectancy is far greater than the average US car.
"The U.S. Department of Transportation reports that the average life span of a vehicle is just over 13 years, with a final mileage of 145,000 miles. Half of all registered vehicles are at least 8 years old, a third of them 10 years old or older. The average new-car buyer trades in the car at 55,000 miles, approximately every four years. That leaves an average life expectancy of 9 years and 90,000 miles for a 4-year-old used car. "
The Dept. of enegy shows that the U.S. will be using over 25% more energy by the year 2025, with usage of each fossil fuel increasing; http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/demand.html even though individual usage will be basically staying the same. You can't beat growth and human behavior.
Good article (#1108) gagrice. It points out how much we have to learn yet and that there is no shortage of energy in the universe such that people should have to feel guilty about their lifestyle. I don't think that the fate of future generations are dependent on whether I drive a 25 mpg or 40 mpg vehicle, or whether I stay home or drive to the beach every weekend.
People driving a hybrid are no more saving the world then I am by burning wood instead of oil to heat my house. I do it to save some money, and clean up the yard at the same time. And I put fluorescent bulbs in my lamps to save money. It is not going to save the world or make much difference in energy usage.
Hybrids have a future if and when fuel becomes expensive enough to pay for their premium cost.
As far as that Lexus SUV hybrid, I've got to laugh that people who are going to pay near $50K for a vehicle are going to be concerned with saving $10/week in gas compared to some other mid-size SUV. And if they wanted to be "green" why choose a vehicle like that in the first place. Buy an Avalon or such.
"To me keeping a car for a long time is an important conservation effort."
I whole heartedly agree with your statement.
However, the cars you didn't buy were just bought by someone else so it doesn't matter in the big picture, right? Just like it is fruitless to buy a fuel efficient vehicle because someone else just buys the gas you didn't.....right?
I don't think expecting 15 years and 200 thousand relatively trouble-free miles out of a new car is unreasonable at all.
"The U.S. Department of Transportation reports that the average life span of a vehicle is just over 13 years, with a final mileage of 145,000 miles."
Actually, I'm surprised it's that high. When you see information like that, you have to ask, "What generally takes cars OUT of service - mechanical problems too costly to fix (reliability problem) or.......an accident?"
If you eliminate accidents as the reason a car is no longer in service, I'm curious about what the average life span/mileage is for cars.
Back to the issue of reducing global air pollution by reducing U.S. oil consumption, I'll try a simple analogy:
1 big kid and 5 little kids are sitting around the table eating beans. They all love beans. Beans are good. Unfortunately, eating beans can lead to 'air pollution'. They are all eating beans out of the same pot but the big kid is mean and scares the little kids so he gets the lions share of beans. How sad.
But the big kid has taken a healthy dose of Bean-O, so he doesn't generate nearly as much 'air pollution' per bowlful as the other kids. But the big kid starts to get a conscience; "Gee", he thinks to himself, "if I cut back on my bean consumption, maybe the room wouldn't stink so bad".
So the big kid eats fewer beans. Does the room smell better or worse?
Depends on the supply of beans. If mom fills the pot as quick as the kids eat, then the little kids are already getting as much as they want so their consumption stays the same. Result: fewer beans consumed by the big kid means fewer beans consumed period - the air starts to clear. However........if mom doles the beans out a little bit at a time (hey, she's trying to get those beans to last), then as the big kids consumption goes down, the little kids consumption goes up, but they haven't taken any Bean-O. End result? Same amount of beans consumed, but the air is actually worse.
the fact is, if the USA "drastically cut" their consumption (one way could be Hybrids taking up 50-60% of the market), the OPEC barons would be forced to scale back production.
Like I said, there is no "minimum oil requirement" that the Saudis can enforce on the world.
Thanks for that interesting article. It appears that even the politicians are jumping on the hybrid bandwagon. I hope they consider to give tax incentives as it will only help even further.
Okay, I'll post something on-topic for a change.....
I see the biggest benefit from hybrids as a means to reduce fuel consumption for that individual owner. As fuel costs rise (from whatever reason), people in the market for a new vehicle will begin to consider fuel economy as an ever larger component in their purchase decision. There are several ways to get better fuel economy:
1. Buy a smaller, lighter vehicle with similar performance. 2. Buy the same size vehicle with reduced performance. 3. Buy a hybrid. 4. Buy a cheaper car and not worry about the cost of fuel. 5. Any combination of the above (although combining 'cheap' with 'hybrid' may be a stretch for the forseeable future).
The first commercial hybrid in the U.S. (Honda Insight if memory serves me right), went for ultimate economy given the current hybrid technology: small, light car with reduced performance and a hybrid powertrain. But to gain more and more acceptance in the American market, hybrids are being offered now in ever larger, heavier cars with the same (if not higher) performance.
In other words, it appears that current success (and acceptance) of hybrids seems to be a case of having your cake (somewhat better economy) and eating it too (no sacrifice in creature comforts or performance).
Where will hybrids go in the future? Depends on the cost of the technology vs. cost of fuel. Personally, I think the cost of the technology can only go down and hybrids will be more widely available in all segments. If the cost of fuel rises at a somewhat moderate rate, I think hybrids will mostly go towards enabling Americans to enjoy all the same room/creature comforts/performance we've become accustomed to while offering moderately better economy. If the cost of fuel rises fairly rapidly, smaller/lighter/slower hybrids with an emphasis on economy to the exclusion of all else will be more prevalent.
I continue to believe that the purchase of a hybrid should be based solely on economics and/or the desire for high-tech gizmos/'latest thing'.
For those shopping for cars in general, you should think about this to get a hybrid into your list:
1. you can afford $20K-$25K for a new car. 2. you do not need anything more than a five passenger car (until the Highlander anyway.) 3. you are not a NASCAR driver. 4. you want to have an ongoing "who cares?" attitude about where gas prices go. 5. you feel good about driving a lower emission car. 6. you feel good about getting more MPG than a comparable "gas-only" car. 7. you enjoy using technology to lower your spending.
If your criteria meets those or almost all of those, buying a Hybrid should be a no-brainer for you.
If the future of hybrids holds what they say (so many more models coming out in next 3-5 years) then there will soon be a Hybrid for virtually ANY need.
there will soon be a Hybrid for virtually ANY need.
Do you really believe that? I came onto Edmund's in 1999 looking for a small economical PU truck. Here it is 2005 and there is less than there was in 1999. From 1985 to 2005 the small Toyota 4 cylinder PU went from combined 29 MPG to 23 MPG. This is a very large segment of the PU market. I would be more than happy with a small hybrid PU that gets 35-40 MPG. I don't see any mention of that in any of the projected hybrid vehicles. Toyota is only interested in the high dollar market. I still say with the exception of the Insight & HCH, hybrids are for the upper middle class market.
Do you see any hybrids on the horizon that will sell in the $15k-$20k bracket?
And your "toyota is only interested in high dollar market" is far from reality.
Base price of Prius is $21xxx. Base Price of HH wlll be in the upper 30s, comparable to other high end smaller SUVs. There is a Tahoe which MSRPs for near $38000 in today's paper !!
And Toyota has said (repeatedly) that they plan on hybridizing their entire line. How will that be "high dollar market" only?
Since the average new car costs over 20k to begin with I think the HCH and Prius all hit the mark with affordability. Over time other types of cars and trucks with have hybrid systems. 2004 is a turning point since prior to that hybrids really weren't noticed. With the Prius that has all changed and now other manufacturers are going to bring wonderful new hybrid designs to market.
Toyota has said (repeatedly) that they plan on hybridizing their entire line
I see that statement repeated a lot. Toyota has gone for the more expensive vehicles since the Prius. And that base $21k price is not realistic. That does not even include side airbags. Does any dealer ever get a base Prius? With the side air bags the Prius pushes $24k. No fancy doodads for that price. The RX400h is $50k+ & the HH Limited is projected at about $40k. The next car on the hybrid drawing board is a Lexus GS??? probably sometime in 2006. What hybrid is on the horizon for the masses. Joe average is just not interested in paying extra for a hybrid version of their favorite car. I think the Civic & Accord hybrids are good examples. The Prius is a novelty and different. That attracts attention. If you follow the RX400 board you see several people that thought they had a long wait have already gotten their car. I don't know what that means for sure. The Highlander is a nice midsize CUV, not in a league with the Tahoe. There are rumors that GM will use the Tahoe as their hybrid test bed. Hopefully it is more practical than the hybrid PU from GM.
Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball so all we can do is speculate. It appears that the entire production run of the Lexus RX is going to be sold. The Prius can be had for discounts now with side air bags. You DO have to shop around though. It's definitely NOT a novelty so I have no idea where that idea came from. I would love to see fuel efficiency in pickups but hybrids are probably not the answer. CLEAN burning diesels would be nice but based on how the Liberty diesel is selling (not as good as they expected) it's a big if. Watching President Bush last night was scarey as even he has NO idea what to do about our current energy situation. He never once mentioned hybrids, but came close.
I know that GM has the hybrid full size PU but I don't know that much about it. Is there some way the hybid PU is less practical than the 'regular' version of the same truck?
I don't think GM's version of a hybrid is a lot different than Toyota or Honda. I believe they have a Silverado that only yields very marginal increases in mileage. I bet Toyota will be the first manufacturer with a hybrid PU. Should be interesting!
Sorry to say, I can hardly consider that a hybrid. When they add an electric motor for assist, let's talk. In the meantime just having the ability to shut down below 13mph and then start backup is hardly what I consider a hybrid. I believe it gets 1 or 2 mpg better than the standard Silverado. Truly a joke!!
Personally, I wouldn't call the pickups hybrid that does not primary use the function to improve MPG, but rather feed a couple of AC outlets for power tools.
I'd only call that a specialized alternator.
Many, many years ago a freind of mine bought a used 1968 Pontiac Ambulance. It too had a large alternator that fed outlets in the back. Guess that was a hybrid too?? :confuse:
The GM hybrid is not much to brag about. I just looked it up and the hybrid option only adds $1000 MSRP to the Silverado. You can get the extended cab for about $29k. I think the biggest selling point is the AC genset that can be used on the job.
To reassure Mercedes loyalists the Vision Grand Sports Tourer reportedly has the acceleration of a sports car — it going from zero to 100 km/h in just 6.6 seconds. The car’s top speed is electronically limited to 250 km/h.
One of the more significant reasons that a hybrid (especially Prius's) is more than useful is the ability to shut down the gas engine and operate in electric mode when I get stuck in Chicago traffic. As I sit there gazing at all the gas guzzlers sucking up and wasting fuel going nowhere, I smile at them because I'm operating in electric mode. It's sad to say but must be pointed out that we (USA) waste so many millions and millions of gallons of fuel going nowhere while stranded in stand-still traffic. I've heard it sad that the fuel wasted in these scenerios is such a huge amount that several European countries could easily make full use of the USA's wasted fuel and have an abundent level still left over. We sure could make better use of the fuel we use and not allow such wastfull tactics that have led to our present demise. Food for thought.
"For the third consecutive month, the popular Prius gas-electric hybrid mid-size sedan recorded its best-ever overall sales month with 11,345 units, an increase of 196.5 percent over April 2004."
"Rising fuel prices and increased consumer demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles led to a new all-time record result for Honda hybrid vehicles. April sales of hybrid models jumped 70.7 percent on a daily selling rate basis to 5,579 including all-time record sales of Civic Hybrid, up 9.8 percent to 3,466 units, and sales of 2,023 Accord Hybrids, the best month since its December 2004 launch. Year-to-date sales of hybrid models rose 56.7 percent to 14,604 vehicles, versus year-ago results of 9,317 hybrids. "There is no question that today's consumer is looking more closely at fuel economy as a key part of their purchase decision," said Dick Colliver, executive vice president of American Honda. "Our commitment to delivering products with superior fuel economy along with industry-leading safety performance and fun-to-drive character is clearly resonating with these buyers."
For those keeping count of 2005 Hybrid sales in the USA:
me: and that's where we differ. I don't see 175,000 or even 1,000,000 a large number considering the number of cars sold and the 230M that are on the road for a number of future years.
As I said before when Ford found they had a hit on their hands with 1 model, way back in 1964, with the Mustang, they ramped up to 400,000/year within a year. Your 175,000 is with a larger car buying popuilation, buying more models, from multiple manufacturers who have been building hybrids for several years.
Again you don't explain if hybrids are such a hit and in demand why these car companies aren't building a few hundred thousand EACH next year or the year after? 175,000 is about 1% of the new car market. that is low IMO.
kernick, I'm talking about the phenomenal GROWTH of the hybrid models. Since we sell 17 million cars a year in the USA, sure it's a small percentage, but Rome was not built in a day, my friend....
But the growth of the hybrid vehicle sales numbers is not small potatoes. From 80,000 in 2004 to more than 175,000 in 2005? That's incredible and will outpace any other car sector in the USA by a huge margin.
I say large thanks to all the hybrid buyers - you are helping many problems with your intelligent purchase......
I know exactly what you're talking about. The same as I said with the Mustang - 1 model - growth from 0 to 400,000 in 1 year.
It's analogous to getting out your pom-poms and giving a rousing cheer because someone gave a hungry, homeless person 2 quarters instead of 1; it doesn't make much of a difference. Nice thought, but not much substance. Give the guy $10K and then I'll agree. Similarly when people and manufacturer's decide that there's a market for millions and millions, I'll believe they're an effect.
There's a market segment of high-powered, sport and luxury cars that are being developed and sold that negate any positive effects. The fact is that manufacturers have not moved far from their required CAFE standards. For every high mpg car built, that CAFE credit is being used to build increasingly higher-powered models.
How much of that hybrid sales was a direct result of the rocketing up of gas prices? It will be interesting so see if May is as good as April with gas prices going back down. Regular is down 25 cents in the last 2 weeks in So. CA. Some parts of the US both regular and diesel are below $2 per gallon. For some reason April was a banner month for car sales. Most of the automakers from Mercedes to Kia showed record sales for April. That is a good sign for our economy. The only hybrid with impressive sales is the Prius. If I was Honda I would consider the hybrids a flop. With 3 models they have sold less than half of the Prius sales this year. I still contend that the Prius is mostly celebrity appeal.
Car of the Year, Euro car of the year, Judged Greenest car on the planet, etc etc means nothing? 34,225 sold this year, have not seen any celeb endorsements in 2005.
quote Gagrice-"If I was Honda I would consider the hybrids a flop"-end quotes
Honda is the Greenest car maker on the Planet - they got that way by making Hybrids. They have THREE of them, in case you missed that, the most of any car maker.
First US Hybrid First 6-cylinder Hybrid First Hybrid with more HP than the gas equivalent model of the car
I don't disagree that Honda is the Greenest car maker by far. Just that they are NOT selling very well. The Greenest car on the planet and it sold 175 units in 4 months. Down 40% from last year at this time. Same for the HCH, it has sold less this year than last. Only one oddball hybrid is really close to successful. We won't know till it reaches it's saturation level just how well it will do. I know you want the hybrids to be a success and I agree they are good for the environment. I believe they are too complex and too expensive for the average driver to consider. As far as Toyota is concerned it looks like they are building just enough hybrids to keep that "Green" image. I imagine they will make money on the RX hybrid at $50k a piece. That is strictly for the fat cat buyer.
I think the '04 Prius has made a HUGE impression for the entire hybrid market. Anyone who thinks that this car is SOLEY for celebrities is sadly mistaken. Just because a few Hollywood greenies embrace this fantastic technology does not mean that everyone who buys one is a wannabe. People are embracing this technology because it WORKS!! The Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid each get nearly double the mileage of the average 4 cylinder economy car. To me, it doesn't take a highly educated consumer to realize the benefits they will get from this type of technology. It will take a few years for other manufacturers to catch up, but you are going to see more and more hybrids take the limelight. Naysayers,,, get used to it! There's a new guy on the block and HIS name is MR. HYBRID!!
The hybrid market is in its infancy. Rome wasn't built in a day. If people embrace this technology, you'll see it grow quite rapidly. GM is scratching its head and taken an about face on their view. Now all the execs are running around like chickens without heads! Prius alone has doubled its production and is barely keeping up with American's hunger for it's flagship hybrid. Yes folks, this is just the beginning!!!
I find it quite amusing regarding the few naysayers that frequent these boards so often. I actually find their posts without substance and quite comical. I guess fear of the unknown leads to abhorrent posts. I actually happen to not be a fan of SUVs but I never frequent any of those forums as I have no reason to. Interesting that the psychology behind these egregious posts only leads me to believe that these people genuinely want a hybrid but they just can't bring themselves to admit it. Quite sad, but also amusing. Enjoy your hybrids!!!!! Can't wait to get my GS!!!
"The Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid each get nearly double the mileage of the average 4 cylinder economy car."
Not in my experience. My dad has an '04 Prius which currently has approximately 24k miles on it. His mileage over the life of the car is about 48mpg. I've got a Celica GTS (geared more for performance than economy) with a fairly high strung motor and I've averaged about 31mpg over the last 50k miles. A 'regular' Corolla LE should average in the 34-36mpg range.
That 48 mpg is certainly NOT nearly 'double' the mileage. Is it better? Certainly. I'd say it's probably 25-35% better than a comparable car. I can't speak to the Civic Hybrid but I doubt sincerely that the Civic Hybrid gets double the mileage of a regular Civic.
You hybrid cheerleaders would have a lot more credence if your claims were less.....over the top? Just my .02.
I'm simply asking for some pro-hybrid person to do the math and using the growth rates of hybrids to tell me when they reach some significant portion of our autofleets population.
When will half (50%) of the cars/trucks/SUV's on the road be hybrids. When can 50% of the American public have the option to drive a high-mpg hybrid? 25 years from now? 35 years? If oil has or will peak very shortly, isn't this switch to hybrids too late? That is why I keep asking why aren't manufacturers en masse pumping out hybrids? Why would manufacturers continue to bring out models without hybrid powerplants? Why isn't every ACCord and Civic a hybrid, and not just 1 out of a 100?
Hybrids certainly aren't the only answer! Why don't manufacturers create highly efficient 4 cyl engines? Why does GM introduce their replacement Cavalier which will only avg in the mid 20's???? Why don't we have a clean diesel alternative? No one wants to step up to the plate. At least Toyota and Honda have.
The hybrid market will never be 50% !!! Even in my wildest dreams I see only a max of 40%, but that migh be as soon as 2012.
Remember: How many hybrids do we estimate will be sold per year when Toyota meets it's goal of hybridizing EVERY car in it's fleet, which it has said it will do?
Like any major technological advance, most things are slow to catch on and expensive in the beginning. Remember when the old IBM XT computers were $5000, for a system that could be had today for about $100? That was 20 years ago. How about portable cell phones that were $3000 and the size of a large brick in 1984 and now are almost the size of a credit card and are $29.95?
The date when Hybrids will have been in the market for 20 years will be 2017. Will hybrid technology decrease in expense by the same rate as computers and cell phones? Probably not, but it is a simple CERTAINTY that it will decrease in cost as it becomes more ubiquitous.
As more people understand that gas prices are NEVER going to go down and stay down, more people will get the news about how cheap it is to keep a hybrid fueled. My HCH has cost me 3.7 cents per mile in fuel over the last 11,477 miles, an average fuel cost of about $43 per month. That's pretty darn low amigos...:)
Here is ANOTHER instance of Toyota saying they want to make Hybridization a standard option on their cars.....
"Toyota plans to make hybrid power a routine option on most vehicles, something a buyer could choose as casually as deciding on a CD player or sunroof. U.S. production would shorten the pipeline from factory to showroom and make it easier for buyers to order hybrids."
Comments
I have to believe that is true!
Deep under the ocean’s floor and high in the Arctic’s frozen landscape, a potential solution to the world’s looming energy shortage lies trapped in ice.
http://www.ucalgary.ca/oncampus/weekly/nov7-03/grozic.html
I don't believe we should waste resources. I am not convinced that hybrids are a logical solution to energy conservation. Smaller, lighter, simpler vehicles make more sense to me. I don't see the hybrids moving US that direction.
Hybrids are not the ONLY solution, but it's hard to justify that they are not a PART of the solution....
"The U.S. Department of Transportation reports that the average life span of a vehicle is just over 13 years, with a final mileage of 145,000 miles. Half of all registered vehicles are at least 8 years old, a third of them 10 years old or older. The average new-car buyer trades in the car at 55,000 miles, approximately every four years. That leaves an average life expectancy of 9 years and 90,000 miles for a 4-year-old used car. "
from this page:
http://www.safecarguide.com/gui/new/neworused.htm
People driving a hybrid are no more saving the world then I am by burning wood instead of oil to heat my house. I do it to save some money, and clean up the yard at the same time. And I put fluorescent bulbs in my lamps to save money. It is not going to save the world or make much difference in energy usage.
Hybrids have a future if and when fuel becomes expensive enough to pay for their premium cost.
As far as that Lexus SUV hybrid, I've got to laugh that people who are going to pay near $50K for a vehicle are going to be concerned with saving $10/week in gas compared to some other mid-size SUV. And if they wanted to be "green" why choose a vehicle like that in the first place. Buy an Avalon or such.
I whole heartedly agree with your statement.
However, the cars you didn't buy were just bought by someone else so it doesn't matter in the big picture, right?
Just like it is fruitless to buy a fuel efficient vehicle because someone else just buys the gas you didn't.....right?
"The U.S. Department of Transportation reports that the average life span of a vehicle is just over 13 years, with a final mileage of 145,000 miles."
Actually, I'm surprised it's that high. When you see information like that, you have to ask, "What generally takes cars OUT of service - mechanical problems too costly to fix (reliability problem) or.......an accident?"
If you eliminate accidents as the reason a car is no longer in service, I'm curious about what the average life span/mileage is for cars.
Back to the issue of reducing global air pollution by reducing U.S. oil consumption, I'll try a simple analogy:
1 big kid and 5 little kids are sitting around the table eating beans. They all love beans. Beans are good. Unfortunately, eating beans can lead to 'air pollution'. They are all eating beans out of the same pot but the big kid is mean and scares the little kids so he gets the lions share of beans. How sad.
But the big kid has taken a healthy dose of Bean-O, so he doesn't generate nearly as much 'air pollution' per bowlful as the other kids. But the big kid starts to get a conscience; "Gee", he thinks to himself, "if I cut back on my bean consumption, maybe the room wouldn't stink so bad".
So the big kid eats fewer beans. Does the room smell better or worse?
Depends on the supply of beans. If mom fills the pot as quick as the kids eat, then the little kids are already getting as much as they want so their consumption stays the same. Result: fewer beans consumed by the big kid means fewer beans consumed period - the air starts to clear. However........if mom doles the beans out a little bit at a time (hey, she's trying to get those beans to last), then as the big kids consumption goes down, the little kids consumption goes up, but they haven't taken any Bean-O. End result? Same amount of beans consumed, but the air is actually worse.
Like I said, there is no "minimum oil requirement" that the Saudis can enforce on the world.
I understand that all of this stuff is intertwined, but we can't let it spin off into the void here.
PF Flyer
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News & Views, Wagons, & Hybrid Vehicles
http://www.sltrib.com/utah/ci_2695109
I see the biggest benefit from hybrids as a means to reduce fuel consumption for that individual owner. As fuel costs rise (from whatever reason), people in the market for a new vehicle will begin to consider fuel economy as an ever larger component in their purchase decision. There are several ways to get better fuel economy:
1. Buy a smaller, lighter vehicle with similar performance.
2. Buy the same size vehicle with reduced performance.
3. Buy a hybrid.
4. Buy a cheaper car and not worry about the cost of fuel.
5. Any combination of the above (although combining 'cheap' with 'hybrid' may be a stretch for the forseeable future).
The first commercial hybrid in the U.S. (Honda Insight if memory serves me right), went for ultimate economy given the current hybrid technology: small, light car with reduced performance and a hybrid powertrain. But to gain more and more acceptance in the American market, hybrids are being offered now in ever larger, heavier cars with the same (if not higher) performance.
In other words, it appears that current success (and acceptance) of hybrids seems to be a case of having your cake (somewhat better economy) and eating it too (no sacrifice in creature comforts or performance).
Where will hybrids go in the future? Depends on the cost of the technology vs. cost of fuel. Personally, I think the cost of the technology can only go down and hybrids will be more widely available in all segments. If the cost of fuel rises at a somewhat moderate rate, I think hybrids will mostly go towards enabling Americans to enjoy all the same room/creature comforts/performance we've become accustomed to while offering moderately better economy. If the cost of fuel rises fairly rapidly, smaller/lighter/slower hybrids with an emphasis on economy to the exclusion of all else will be more prevalent.
I continue to believe that the purchase of a hybrid should be based solely on economics and/or the desire for high-tech gizmos/'latest thing'.
1. you can afford $20K-$25K for a new car.
2. you do not need anything more than a five passenger car (until the Highlander anyway.)
3. you are not a NASCAR driver.
4. you want to have an ongoing "who cares?" attitude about where gas prices go.
5. you feel good about driving a lower emission car.
6. you feel good about getting more MPG than a comparable "gas-only" car.
7. you enjoy using technology to lower your spending.
If your criteria meets those or almost all of those, buying a Hybrid should be a no-brainer for you.
If the future of hybrids holds what they say (so many more models coming out in next 3-5 years) then there will soon be a Hybrid for virtually ANY need.
Do you really believe that? I came onto Edmund's in 1999 looking for a small economical PU truck. Here it is 2005 and there is less than there was in 1999. From 1985 to 2005 the small Toyota 4 cylinder PU went from combined 29 MPG to 23 MPG. This is a very large segment of the PU market. I would be more than happy with a small hybrid PU that gets 35-40 MPG. I don't see any mention of that in any of the projected hybrid vehicles. Toyota is only interested in the high dollar market. I still say with the exception of the Insight & HCH, hybrids are for the upper middle class market.
Do you see any hybrids on the horizon that will sell in the $15k-$20k bracket?
And your "toyota is only interested in high dollar market" is far from reality.
Base price of Prius is $21xxx. Base Price of HH wlll be in the upper 30s, comparable to other high end smaller SUVs. There is a Tahoe which MSRPs for near $38000 in today's paper !!
And Toyota has said (repeatedly) that they plan on hybridizing their entire line. How will that be "high dollar market" only?
I see that statement repeated a lot. Toyota has gone for the more expensive vehicles since the Prius. And that base $21k price is not realistic. That does not even include side airbags. Does any dealer ever get a base Prius? With the side air bags the Prius pushes $24k. No fancy doodads for that price. The RX400h is $50k+ & the HH Limited is projected at about $40k. The next car on the hybrid drawing board is a Lexus GS??? probably sometime in 2006. What hybrid is on the horizon for the masses. Joe average is just not interested in paying extra for a hybrid version of their favorite car. I think the Civic & Accord hybrids are good examples. The Prius is a novelty and different. That attracts attention. If you follow the RX400 board you see several people that thought they had a long wait have already gotten their car. I don't know what that means for sure. The Highlander is a nice midsize CUV, not in a league with the Tahoe. There are rumors that GM will use the Tahoe as their hybrid test bed. Hopefully it is more practical than the hybrid PU from GM.
I bet Toyota will be the first manufacturer with a hybrid PU.
Ummmmmmm, isn't the Silverado hybrid a.......hybrid PU?
I guess GM just wanted to be able to put "Hybrid" somewhere on the tailgate....
I'd only call that a specialized alternator.
Many, many years ago a freind of mine bought a used 1968 Pontiac Ambulance.
It too had a large alternator that fed outlets in the back. Guess that was a hybrid too??
:confuse:
http://www.hybrid.com/modules.php?name=Mercedes_Hybrid_Cars
Interesting if they could find a way to power a hybrid with this method.
from this page:
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2005/05/03/057818.html
vehicles led to a new all-time record result for Honda hybrid vehicles. April
sales of hybrid models jumped 70.7 percent on a daily selling rate basis to
5,579 including all-time record sales of Civic Hybrid, up 9.8 percent to
3,466 units, and sales of 2,023 Accord Hybrids, the best month since its
December 2004 launch. Year-to-date sales of hybrid models rose 56.7 percent
to 14,604 vehicles, versus year-ago results of 9,317 hybrids.
"There is no question that today's consumer is looking more closely at
fuel economy as a key part of their purchase decision," said Dick Colliver,
executive vice president of American Honda. "Our commitment to delivering
products with superior fuel economy along with industry-leading safety
performance and fun-to-drive character is clearly resonating with these
buyers."
For those keeping count of 2005 Hybrid sales in the USA:
That's 34,225 Priuses YTD.
14,604 Honda hybrids.
5,700 Escape hybrids. (approximately)
That's 54,529 YTD so far. Add in the RX400h and the Highlander and US Hybrid sales is going to approach
175,000 vehicles
in 2005, shattering all expectations.
I'd say the future looks brighter than ever !!
in 2005, shattering all expectations.
me: and that's where we differ. I don't see 175,000 or even 1,000,000 a large number considering the number of cars sold and the 230M that are on the road for a number of future years.
As I said before when Ford found they had a hit on their hands with 1 model, way back in 1964, with the Mustang, they ramped up to 400,000/year within a year. Your 175,000 is with a larger car buying popuilation, buying more models, from multiple manufacturers who have been building hybrids for several years.
Again you don't explain if hybrids are such a hit and in demand why these car companies aren't building a few hundred thousand EACH next year or the year after? 175,000 is about 1% of the new car market. that is low IMO.
But the growth of the hybrid vehicle sales numbers is not small potatoes. From 80,000 in 2004 to more than 175,000 in 2005? That's incredible and will outpace any other car sector in the USA by a huge margin.
I say large thanks to all the hybrid buyers - you are helping many problems with your intelligent purchase......
It's analogous to getting out your pom-poms and giving a rousing cheer because someone gave a hungry, homeless person 2 quarters instead of 1; it doesn't make much of a difference. Nice thought, but not much substance. Give the guy $10K and then I'll agree. Similarly when people and manufacturer's decide that there's a market for millions and millions, I'll believe they're an effect.
There's a market segment of high-powered, sport and luxury cars that are being developed and sold that negate any positive effects. The fact is that manufacturers have not moved far from their required CAFE standards. For every high mpg car built, that CAFE credit is being used to build increasingly higher-powered models.
The Prius stands on it's own merits.
Honda is the Greenest car maker on the Planet - they got that way by making Hybrids. They have THREE of them, in case you missed that, the most of any car maker.
First US Hybrid
First 6-cylinder Hybrid
First Hybrid with more HP than the gas equivalent model of the car
I'd say they are doing pretty good.
Remember - having an opinion on the subject is fine. Attacking and calling each other names is not.
Not in my experience. My dad has an '04 Prius which currently has approximately 24k miles on it. His mileage over the life of the car is about 48mpg. I've got a Celica GTS (geared more for performance than economy) with a fairly high strung motor and I've averaged about 31mpg over the last 50k miles. A 'regular' Corolla LE should average in the 34-36mpg range.
That 48 mpg is certainly NOT nearly 'double' the mileage. Is it better? Certainly. I'd say it's probably 25-35% better than a comparable car. I can't speak to the Civic Hybrid but I doubt sincerely that the Civic Hybrid gets double the mileage of a regular Civic.
You hybrid cheerleaders would have a lot more credence if your claims were less.....over the top? Just my .02.
When will half (50%) of the cars/trucks/SUV's on the road be hybrids. When can 50% of the American public have the option to drive a high-mpg hybrid? 25 years from now? 35 years? If oil has or will peak very shortly, isn't this switch to hybrids too late? That is why I keep asking why aren't manufacturers en masse pumping out hybrids? Why would manufacturers continue to bring out models without hybrid powerplants? Why isn't every ACCord and Civic a hybrid, and not just 1 out of a 100?
Remember: How many hybrids do we estimate will be sold per year when Toyota meets it's goal of hybridizing EVERY car in it's fleet, which it has said it will do?
Like any major technological advance, most things are slow to catch on and expensive in the beginning. Remember when the old IBM XT computers were $5000, for a system that could be had today for about $100? That was 20 years ago. How about portable cell phones that were $3000 and the size of a large brick in 1984 and now are almost the size of a credit card and are $29.95?
The date when Hybrids will have been in the market for 20 years will be 2017. Will hybrid technology decrease in expense by the same rate as computers and cell phones? Probably not, but it is a simple CERTAINTY that it will decrease in cost as it becomes more ubiquitous.
As more people understand that gas prices are NEVER going to go down and stay down, more people will get the news about how cheap it is to keep a hybrid fueled. My HCH has cost me 3.7 cents per mile in fuel over the last 11,477 miles, an average fuel cost of about $43 per month. That's pretty darn low amigos...:)
"Toyota plans to make hybrid power a routine option on most vehicles, something a buyer could choose as casually as deciding on a CD player or sunroof. U.S. production would shorten the pipeline from factory to showroom and make it easier for buyers to order hybrids."
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId=CqNHiWeiendK4oenHBxj5Bwf5yMvuB3LVD