By accessing this website, you acknowledge that Edmunds and its third party business partners may use cookies, pixels, and similar technologies to collect information about you and your interactions with the website as described in our
Privacy Statement, and you agree that your use of the website is subject to our
Visitor Agreement.
Comments
Well, not as of April 2005 Gary. Read this:
"Honda sold a record number of hybrids: 5,579 Civic, Accord and Insight hybrids."
I can't see "not selling very well" being a fact when "they set a sales record."
Considering that Honda sold 27,215 Hybrids IN ALL OF 2004, I'd say selling 5,579 in ONE MONTH is pretty impressive, wouldn't you agree, Gary?
Here's the whole story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=atVVCSUYHTs0&refer=asia
Because people desire power/room/creature comforts over pure economy. My first 'performance' car (an '84 CRX 1.5) had a whooping 76 hp and weighed under 2000 lbs. My parents last non-Toyota (a '79 Audi 5000) made a head-spinning 100 hp. Whoa nelly.
Today even a base Toyota Echo makes 108 hp. Try selling a 76 hp car on any showroom in America. I don't want any stock in the company that attempts it.
Manufacturers DO create highly efficient 4 cyl engines. The buying public (unless absolutely FORCED to due to fuel costs) avoids them like the plague. For the vast majority of buying public (and I'm speaking globally and not just in the U.S.), "economical" = "cheap" = "I can't afford better" = "loser". This certainly does not reflect reality in all cases, but this is the perception.
In that case the public is plague addicted. Hottest growth segment of the car market in USA and up here in the great North are economical 4 cyl. engine cars. Worst segment are V8 SUVs.
Yes fuel costs are forcing buyers to reconsider their priorities as low interest rates force house buyers to keep on renovating and moving to a better houses.
Hybrid technology has a long way to go in price reductions before hybrids can be considered a frugally priced gas saver.
For today, VW Lupo TDI sounds good but VW management is not shrewd enough to introduce this model. A 2.2l diesel Honda Accord sounds like a helluva good option, especially when compared to the Hybrid Accord.
Many, many, many more people feel passion (excitement, longing, desire) for a car with performance/handling/power than people who feel passion about 50mpg.
Check out a magazine stand. How many magazines do you see devoted to the more traditional performance aspects of automobiles and how many magazines which show even a passing interest in fuel mileage?
Since this topic is about the future of hybids, my theory is that in the near term hybrids will gain the most acceptance as a means for the car buyer to increase mileage WITHOUT an appreciable sacrifice in performance/creature comforts. The Insight leaned to heavily towards the economy side of the scale, sacrificing too much performance to be appealing to most people (except of course those FEW individuals who get 'passionate' about high mpg numbers). Toyota went much more mainstream offering a car with good interior room and decent performance without trying to set some kind of mileage record.
"$1,200 savings in gas a year!!!
Uh, no. Let's compare the Prius to a 4-cyl Camry (you'll see I'm giving the benefit of doubt to the Prius). Assume the Prius at 50mpg and the Camry (driven the same way) at 28mpg. Assume 15,000 miles driven per year with gas at $3.00 (again, I'm trying to give as much benefit to the Prius as reasonable).
The Prius consumes $900 worth of gas and the Camry consumes about $1600 worth of gas. Your savings are $700/year, NOT $1200 per year.
I've said it before, I'll say it again; all you hybrid cheerleaders would have a LOT more credence if you weren't so over the top with your claims.
Interesting analogy - compare something people are doing AGAINST their will (buy fuel efficient cars due to high fuel prices) with something they WANT to do (move to a better house).
Sometimes, the logic expressed in this thread is truely astounding.... :confuse:
I don't mind people being enthusiastic, or even optimistic, about hybrids, but if they refuse to at least acknowledge genuine concerns about the technology, then they lose me. These concerns include:
1. High price premium ($3K+)
2. Can only be serviced by dealer
3. Uncertainty about highly complex electronic controlling systems
4. Uncertainty about battery
I'll listen to the person who acknowledges these concerns but decides to by a hybrid anyway because of all the positives, and realizes that hybrids are not for everyone. A single person making $80K a year is probably a good candidate. A family of four living off of $40-50K is not.
Hmmm, lucky for me you weren't trying to compare the fuel savings of a Prius to a Class 'A' Motorhome. Wouldn't it be more 'logical' to compare the fuel savings for a hybrid to a SIMILAR non-hybrid? Guess not.
People will ALWAYS have more passion for the faster cars. Look at Europe where traditionally gas is twice as expensive as in the U.S. Do you think Europeans are more passionate about economy cars or performance cars?
"I am proud to be a hybrid cheerleader because it's technology that works." Yes. Yes. YES. Hybrid technology works. I don't think I've ever insinuated that it DOESN'T work. But (in keeping with the gist of this thread), I think the "future" of hybrids lies with providing potential owners with SOMEWHAT better economy while maintaining the same (or better) performance.
In other words, future sales will NOT come from trying maximize economy. Future sales will come from convincing buyers they can 'have their cake AND eat it too'.
Pardon the confusion, all I meant is that most of us make our choices based on economic events! Whether it is interest rates or oil prices!
1. He could afford the price premium (he ordered a 2nd generation Prius when it was still on the showcar circuit prior to it being in such high demand). I think he paid around $21k and got a car somewhat caparable in room/comfort/performance to a base Camry. Plus, he is a technology freak and loves the powertrain management technology for it's own sake.
2. He only gets service at the dealer anyway. I don't think was even an issue.
3. Any problems with the complexity of the engine management system should show up fairly early in the cars life (within the warrantee period). I don't think he was 'afraid' to be without his car if problems arose; he still has his old Tacoma to get around in.
4. For me, the life expectancy of the battery was a major concern. He did some research and turned up many examples of 1st gen Prius's being pressed into taxi service with far in excess of 100k miles (mostly city duty which stesses the batteries the most). I kinda think of the battery issue as a crapshoot; yeah, it's a major component that can fail past the warrantee but then so can the tranny in my wife's new Ody. 15-20 years ago you would have been a nutcase for EXPECTING your car to last beyond 150k miles. I think the battery concern is just indicative to how advanced general vehicle reliablity had progressed.
I wondered when that would come to light. What they fail to mention in their slight of hand journalism, is that the Accord Hybrid was not in the mix last year. Both the Insight and Civic hybrid sold less than the same time period last year. For a car with all the hype and hoopla, I don't think any of the top brass at Honda are jumping through hoops over selling 2000 Accord Hybrids. UNLESS Honda is not interested in promoting hybrids. Getting beat out by Toyota is not what Honda likes to see. My personal opinion is that the HCH and Insight are good cars and should be promoted. I think the Prius is way too complex and the problems that are being encountered by owners bare out that assertion. After two weeks on the market the RX400h is not the success that Lexus had planned on. People that were expecting to wait for months for an RXh were surprised to find they were already able to buy one. I think the price eliminated most of the wannabe buyers. Some dealers were gouging big time. One poster paid $10k over MSRP. It leaves a bad taste in my mouth to see people anxiously awaiting to try this new technology, for the benefit of the environment, and they are screwed by greedy dealers. If you think that I am envious of that kind of treatment, you know very little about me. The only hybrid on the horizon that I would consider is the MB "R" hybrid diesel that is slated for 2006. Even then I would want some assurance that it would get significantly better mileage than a straight Mercedes diesel. If the hybrids have a future with mainstream drivers, it is still in the future.
50 mpg and above is a passion that is growing in momentum! And will continue growing when the selection of reasonable priced gas savers become more excitiong in terms of gas efficiency.
The popularity of the Prius has nothing to do with it's Boy Racer image, but its fuel economy! Still I think the Prius is overpriced in terms of its benefits(gas savings). Unless ofcourse you find it worthwhile to spend extra thousands on a car in order to achieve lower emissions---a better alternative would be to donate those extra thousands to a non-profit environmental organization. Oh yes and that donation would be tax deductible.
But if more efficient vehicles are to come, they will be hybrids for the forseeable future. Perhaps if Honda offered an economically justifiable, Civic Si hatchback hybrid .............................
For the Scion brand, Toyota surveyed and interviewed literally THOUSANDS of 18-24 year old potential car buyers to find out what they wanted in the way of customization options, and the results of that data were what drove the plethora of available dealer-installable options on the Scion brand cars.
What we want in hybrids WILL be listened to by the carmakers. You can bet they troll forums like this one and the others, looking for common requests, common complaints.
One they SURELY know about is all the people who for some reason want to believe that a Hybrid model of a car should cost nearly the same as the non-hybrid version, which to them must sound VERY SILLY. Cars which cost more to build MUST cost more to the buyer, or carmakers would be forced to close their factories.
Hybrid parts, battery technology, consumer acceptance, all those factors and countless others will lead Hybrids into the future. The costs will go lower, the sales will go higher, and we will ALL be better off in the long run.
This topic is supposed to be about the future of hybrid vehicles. So let's try to stick to speculations on what's next. What technology breakthroughs might be coming down the raod? We can even get into a little sci-fi type speculation here about possible futuristic systems that might be used to enhance the performance of ICE's while reducing fuel useage.
If you want to talk about resale value of current hybrids, try the Hybrids at a premium - worth it? Will resale values hold? topic.
If you want to speculate on what vehicles might be offered in a hybrid version next, then pop into Future Hybrid Models to discuss which vehicle you think will be, or you would like to be the next to be "hybridized".
And if you want to get into the details about a specific current hybrid offering, please use the topics that have been created for each of those models. You can find them quickly by using the search tools in the left sidebar.
What we're winding up with here is a real hodgepodge of a topic that's all over the place. Some poor unsuspecting new user is going to come along, see the title, and then wonder where all the talk about the future stuff is.
You all have interesting opinions to share and it;'s great. Let's just keep it a little more organized and stick to the topics to help make this a useful resource for all!
Thanks for your cooperation and participation!
PF Flyer
Host
News & Views, Wagons, & Hybrid Vehicles
P.S. If you think we need a topic talking about the actual savings people are seeing with their hybrid, drop me an email at pf_flyer@edmunds.com and we'll get one fired up!
You have made a very good point. The reason that diesels NOT hybrids are big in Europe is performance & economy in the same vehicle. As is being discussed on the various boards, the performance hybrids are not giving both performance and high mileage at the same time. You want to cruise with traffic at 80+ MPH you are going to take a big hit on mileage with a hybrid. If you drive very conservatively you may get good mileage.
These posts ARE about the future of Hybrids. Hybrids will have no future if drivers of the current vehicles don't tell their stories. If the hybrids don't save gas, people will stop buying them. If they become difficult or expensive to service, there will be no future. I think anyone giving consideration to buying a hybrid today or two years from now will benefit from the perspectives of these people who are giving thought about whether or not the vehicles are offering any real value.
You mention speculation is appropriate. Most of these posts are speculative ... alot of non-facts. But facts and figures, MPG and cost calculations, where to service the vehicles all lead to speculation.
By the way, A hybrid is definitely in my future. I think the environmental impact is a major consideration. I will pay more than a comparably equipped Camry and not complain. I will change my own oil, service my own brakes and I will enjoy driving the vehicle, but I won't stand in line for 6 months waiting for one.
Jim W
Toyota Prius 2004+
2006 hybrid Toyota Highlander
We also have topics like:
Future Hybrid Models
Hybrids Success in the Marketplace - Hybrid Sales Numbers
Hybrid Tips: Optimizing Mileage
Hybrid Gas Mileage: Good? Bad? As Expected?
to mention a few.
I agree wholeheartedly that it's important to talk about this stuff and that future buyers can benefit from these discussions. But we also have to make it as easy to get to that information as possible. That's why we have the different topics and need to stay on topic in these discussions. If I'm looking for service info on a Highlander hybrid, this is not the topic that I'm going to check.
What this was becoming was essentially "Everything About Hybrids" and that's a bit broad.
So maybe we need to redefine or rename this topic so that we can have a sharper focus on it. I've tried to define what I THINK the topic was intended to be, but there seems to be some disagreement about it. So I'm open to thoughts on the matter.
What we can't really have is a catch all topic that's effectively a mini version of the Hybrids board.
IOW, a hypothetical post can't simply make an assertion about FUTURE sales numbers without some discussion of current sales numbers. Or FUTURE mileage/performance numbers without discussion of the current numbers. If one can't discuss current hybrid aspects, then all statements/assertions about the future of hybrids are essentially made in a vacuum with no opportunity to question the statement. The topic then devolves into a non-stop hybrid cheerleading session with no brakes.
I think that so long as any discussion is couched terms of how it relates to the future of hybrids, it should be fine.
I think I missed a few posts over lunch but I didn't think we had much topic drift today at all. Just IMO.
For sales numbers, we have the newly created Hybrids Success in the Marketplace - Hybrid Sales Numbers topic.
As far as this topic goes, I'm trying to add a littel focus by the addition of a description up there under the topic title:
What does the future hold? What breakthroughs are just around the corner? The current hybrids are just the starting point. Let's hear your thoughts on what automotive power is going to look like in the years to come!
Again, just trying to avoid too much overlap in the topics and make it easy to home in on the info you're after. Had this one been titled The Future of Hybrid Sales, it would be a different story.
Remember that we're ALWAYS open to suggestions for topics that will help us make the forums more useful. As much as the hybrid market is starting to boom, things here will have to change as time passes to stay in step. Getting new topics going to keep things clear will be part of that process.
What I'm going to do is copy your posts over to the new topic and send you an email to make sure you find your way there to expand on hybrids and "performance".
Not being available in the future is related pretty tightly to having a future !!!
I'm glad we have a new topic related to sales though....Thanks for that.....
1. Price premimum - would rather take the $3K and stick it in my kid's education funds (which I do).
2. Dealers around me charge significantly more that my local mechanic for basic maintenance, so this is pretty much unacceptable to me.
3. Can't afford to be stranded by electronic glitches (no backup car).
4. Battery would only worry me for resale over 100K miles (I keep cars a while). Who would want to buy it if a $2-4K battery replacement was potentially coming up?
Just my personal take.
If you, or anybody else have an idea for a topic that really deserves its own space here on Hybrids, let us know about it. The changes in hybrids are happening kind of fast and we need to stay up on things!
Now if you want a futuristic idea that a bunch of people would NEVER allow, a friend of mine suggested YEARS ago that it would be interesting if we could somehow provide for all our power needs with a small nuclear fuel element. Before you scream Three Mile Island!!!, just go with the ssci-fi for a moment.
Some kind of fool proof box/cylinder/whatever that contained a small amount of nuclear material. And it fits into an opening in your house to provide power for the home, but then you move it to your car to provide a power source for the car, or to your plane, whatever. Interesting idea for a "universal power source.
Of course, everything old is new again. Since the nuclear fuel would essentially provide heat, would we wind up using steam to generate electricity to power the car? Or would we use the heat to generate steam to drive a turbine or piston to move the car? Maybe I should have held onto that Stanley Steamer stock!!
Swinging back to a more plausible future, I'm guessing the next breakthough in hybrids (which might lead to 100% electric being realistic) would be battery technology advances. Increases in efficiency, decreasing the weight of the batteries without sacrificing power output, increased battery life resulting in longer range, quicker charging times (which seem to be on the horizon). Those are thd kind of things I see shaping the future of hybrids.
Another thing I find promising is the displacement on demand concept. Coupled with the hybrid's "electric assist", I can see us getting a lot out of heading down that road as well.
This is a LOT like personal computing in a way. I recall reading in 1996 regarding modems how "most experts believe that 28,000 bps represents the ceiling for analog transmission speed", yet just a couple of years later I was dialing up at 56K.
There's ALWAYS a next level... somebody just has to think of it!
And you were not connecting at 56K; the phone lines don't support that. So this is a good example of how technology doesn't always work out.
To get back on topic: My personal take is that it is useful to hybridize most any vehicle, simply because having electric assist allows the heavy vehicles to get up to an efficient speed. I have no doubt that my Honda CR-V would get over 30 MPG in town with even the simple Honda hybrid system. But Honda isn't planning to hybridize any SUVs...
Enjoy!
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/050509/9hybrid.htm
We keep getting into issues here that are covered in other topics. Let's try to stick to what we think the advances in the technology are going to be here. Postings that belong in other existing topics will be moved to the appropriate topics.
Let's stick to how you think the technology might change and adapt, what innovations might come along. You can even toos out ideas for things that might not seem possible now, but would be great if they did happen.
If the majority of the postings that land here belong in other existing topics, we'll retire this one.
I still have concerns about electronic complexity, however. But maybe we're going to be stuck with that if we want to reduce our oil dependency in the next 20 years.
P.S. the automakers did not fail to "comply". A sorcerer who could alter physical laws failed to materialize.
Not sure that the average household would be equipped to do any real charging of batteries at the moment. The energy required to go on batteries alone for a short round trip would probably not be able to be supplied by household current in any reasonable length of time. And can you imagine the electric meter spinning off the side of your house??
Guess there's no free lunch.