Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

xwesx

henryn said:

I would expect an actuary working for a big insurance company to have an advanced degree in mathematics, and know more about probability and statistics than the average person would ever want to know. I do remember from my one semester of prob-stat that it does NOT work the way you describe.

Look at it this way: the odds on a coin toss are 50-50. Even if you hit 10 "heads" in a row, the odds on the next toss are STILL 50-50. It seems counter-intuitive, I know, but that is how it works.

It actually works just that way. It is statistically less likely (faaaaar less likely) that one will flip heads ten times in a row than any random mix of heads and tails, even though each time you flip, your chance of a heads is 50%. So, if tails is a crash, and you managed to flip heads for ten years running, the probability you will not continue to do so grows.

The rate is still quite small, but if a company loses you as a customer after that ten years and you had no claims, they locked in their earnings and their risk is now gone.

stickguy

coin flips are random. getting into accidents and getting tickets is not (though of course, you can be involved in an accident totally not your fault).

so the trick is figuring out what having either event means. Are you a bad driver that will continue to get tickets and have accidents? Or will you, after the first one, be extra careful and drive slower to make sure you don't have another? I think if you went 10-20 years without an accident, you are a pretty good bet to not have more, even if you finally did have one.

pensfan83

henryn said:

pensfan83 said:

corvette said:

Erie appears to be fairly well regarded. It appears they still use a flat dollar figure deductible on wind/hail homeowners claims, which is something a lot of carriers are phasing out in favor of making the deductible a percentage of the insured value. 

I have no complaints about them. When I was getting the Acura fixed last year the body shop I use also shared that some of the well known companies referenced here will only spring for OEM parts on collision claims for cars in the current model year or will only approve OEM for current and prior. Erie will approve OEM replacement parts for cars up to 3 model years old.

Do you really care whether that new fender is OEM or aftermarket? Is anyone ever going to know? Will it affect the resale value?

The answer, to all 3 questions, for most people, is “no”.

Most people probably wouldn't care but I personally do, especially if the vehicle isn't leased.

stickguy

on earlier seasons of wheeler dealers, when they actually had a tight budget, Edd used to talk about "Pattern Parts" all the time. Basically they were cheaper, but of inferior quality (thinner) and not exact size, so took way more fiddling to get to fit. But cheaper, often by a lot.

these days, like with windshields, it is entirely possible your aftermarket part was made by the same company on the same machines of same materials, just not labelled with the car brand. Just like I am sure Campbells cans their extra soup and slaps on a discount store label.

au1994

I do remember those early episodes with pattern parts. Some of the fits were pretty bad but ultimately with some bending, pulling and in at least one case filler they worked.

tifighter

Ok. I'll take a punch...






























Model X Performance.
The end.

28firefighter

A nearly all Tesla family! Congrats!

stickguy

that replaced the Volvo?

tifighter

This replaces the Volvo, and the Kia that gets returned at the beginning of June.

fintail

Wow, congrats, moving to the greater BelRedKirk menagerie next? (so many around here, but most of those in this neck of the woods seem to be white).

tifighter

fintail said:

Wow, congrats, moving to the greater BelRedKirk menagerie next? (so many around here, but most of those in this neck of the woods seem to be white).

No, I just picked it up there.

The deal took a bit of time to put together, but worked out in the end.

kyfdx

tifighter said:

fintail said:

Wow, congrats, moving to the greater BelRedKirk menagerie next? (so many around here, but most of those in this neck of the woods seem to be white).

No, I just picked it up there.

The deal took a bit of time to put together, but worked out in the end.

There will be no living with you, now..

au1994

Congrats! Love the Teslas!

au1994

For all of you hybrid or full electric adapters out there, are there any good calculators to use to determine if one is for you? We’ve had a conversation about getting one at some point but we may no longer be viable candidates. Both the X1 and Crosstrek do high 20’s or better in mixed driving. I commute once a week 30 miles round trip and my wife’s commute is probably not even 10 round trip daily. Around town errands and going to the kids games are maybe another 75 miles a week. The trip to the lake house is 150 miles round trip so we could do it on a charge in a Tesla?

Without any or less incentives, just not sure it makes sense.

stickguy

Usage wise, you sound perfect. Money wise, that’s up to you!

tifighter

@au1994 From what you describe, an EV with 220-240 mile range could work. All of the daily commute stuff you describe might be covered with one charge per week. Maybe two depending on variables. 150 miles round trip should be easy as well, unless it is something like minus 30 outside while climbing mountain passes, which I'm guessing is, infrequent, in GA. The Bolt, Leaf plus, Niro EV could work, and they're all around the $35-40K range. In Tesla land, a 3 Standard plus would give you 240 miles range, 0-60 in 5.3s, access to the supercharger network and autopilot for $39.5K. That's before any federal or state incentives.

tifighter

kyfdx said:

tifighter said:

fintail said:

Wow, congrats, moving to the greater BelRedKirk menagerie next? (so many around here, but most of those in this neck of the woods seem to be white).

No, I just picked it up there.

The deal took a bit of time to put together, but worked out in the end.

There will be no living with you, now..

Thanks?

breld

Wow! Congrats @tifighter!

xwesx

tifighter said:

Model X Performance.
The end.

Dayum! So, are you 100% electric now, or is the Soul hybrid? And.... time for a sig line revision.

corvette

Ugh. Apparently some (all?) carriers are surcharging me on my homeowners quote due to the fire loss at the rental property, which I don’t live in. I had thought I’d get a pass since the loss didn’t occur on my own home. 

I’m going to circle the wagons and see whether my dad qualifies for USAA membership - his father served, but I’m not sure whether he had insurance through them. 

nyccarguy

CONGRATS! @tifighter

Do you have the 1st all electric fleet on the board?

tifighter

xwesx said:

tifighter said:

Model X Performance.
The end.

Dayum! So, are you 100% electric now, or is the Soul hybrid? And.... time for a sig line revision.

Yes, all electric, the Soul is an EV. And I always forget about that signature.

tifighter

nyccarguy said:

CONGRATS! @tifighter

Do you have the 1st all electric fleet on the board?

I think so. No one else is that stupid crazy yet.

nyccarguy

You and I balance out THE FORCE

You've got your 3 EVs & I've got 2 out of 3 cars that get MPG in the high teens.

Pilot went in for service yesterday. Synthetic Oil & Filter, Tire Rotation, New Struts for the Tailgate, & a new Homelink Module. Out of service for 2 days. Wife gets the Infiniti. I've been rowing my own in The Prelude for 2 days.

suydam

@tifighter — congratulations! Would love to see pics of the interior. How do the 2 Tesla’s compare drive-wise? Do you charge them at home or somewhere else?

tifighter

I've wanted to go all electric for awhile. The list of things that could fill the Volvo's role as ski trip/trailhead car with a plug are short. All electric? With some ground clearance? Pretty much a list of one.

Let's just get it said, these things aren't cheap. I've looked around for a bit; used ones hold their values too well, and new ones are new ones. Occasionally you can find a demo, so I kept an eye out for one for about 2 months. To keep the story short, this one popped up right around quarter-end. 2018 X Performance, with Ludicrous plus. Showroom model from the Bay Area. 1500 miles, full new car warranty. I didn't set out to get another performance model, it just happened to be the deal that came up. There was a strong discount on it, but I needed more. From the Tesla forums, I had heard of people having the Ludicrous mode removed at purchase (it's software), this would raise the 0-60 from 2.8sec to 3.5sec. Still seemed adequate So I contacted a sales advisor, and they agreed to it. This was a $20K line item, so it mattered. In the end, the discount from new would more then buy a nice Model 3, so it was worth waiting for the right deal to present itself. I got a trade number for the Volvo that would work. So I put a deposit down and they took care of the rest, shipping it from California. No additional shipping aside from the normal destination all cars have. Picked it up on Friday. One scratch in the plastic in the cargo area, otherwise, looks perfect.

jpp75

Congrats @tifighter !!

sda

nyccarguy said:

You and I balance out THE FORCE

You've got your 3 EVs & I've got 2 out of 3 cars that get MPG in the high teens.

Pilot went in for service yesterday. Synthetic Oil & Filter, Tire Rotation, New Struts for the Tailgate, & a new Homelink Module. Out of service for 2 days. Wife gets the Infiniti. I've been rowing my own in The Prelude for 2 days.

With the warranty work they didn’t give you a loaner? I know you enjoy having an excuse to drive the Prelude.

qbrozen

tifighter said:

Yes, all electric, the Soul is an EV. And I always forget about that signature.

Gotta be a heck of a load on your panel, no? Or do you just make sure to stagger the charging? How many 220v outlets do you have in the garage? do you run cables out to your driveway? Any concerns with them getting stolen?

rayainsw

Congratulations on the punch, tifighter !
Many happy electrons to you !
- Ray
Just can't make that move just yet...

tifighter

Stagger is fine. 3 has 310 mile range, X has 289 so it would be rare that both would need full charges at the same time. We have the EVSE installed on the side of the house, inside a lockable metal enclosure. The enclosure is more for a clean look then my concern of theft; someone would get one heck of a zap if they tried to pull it.

We do have a 6.6kW solar system with full southern exposure, and it goes a long way towards covering most of our household usage. I'm sure we'll be short now with two big-battery cars plus house usage, but it will be interesting to see by how much as the year rolls on.

tifighter

Here's an example from our solar today. No charging today, partly cloudy-

Red is usage, green is energy captured.

28firefighter

Big congrats, @tifighter!  Sounds like a smoking deal. There were a handful of people over on leasehackr that were exploiting the same discounts to get crazy leases (relatively speaking - they were still expensive) on the Model S and Model X. 

tifighter

28firefighter said:

Big congrats, @tifighter!  Sounds like a smoking deal. There were a handful of people over on leasehackr that were exploiting the same discounts to get crazy leases (relatively speaking - they were still expensive) on the Model S and Model X. 

Thanks. Yeah for about a 3 week period, there were some deals to be had on showroom cars, but they went fast. A car would pop up and be taken within a few hours of going live. I heard about some S deals that were really impressive.

marcogallo1986

 Enjoyed reading all the best number for days and hear everybody, New York, glad the neighbor. I came to you about what happened with the mailbox. Went to the New York auto show Friday, nothing really interesting to see. Did post some pictures on my Facebook and Instagram. My dad really likes the Cadillac XT four, I told him there’s a dealer close by next week we should go in the striped one. And he also likes the Kia stuff, and on day two, the smaller SUVs he needs of course. Doesn’t need the bigger seven seats stuff. Wasn’t interested   In the Ford edge at all, didn’t even really want to sit in it. Do you like the CRVE also. And the new Rab for. He’s all over the place so we shall see. He said within the next year he wants to get something. Trying to push him to do it sooner ha ha Ha because that’s what we do in here. Been fighting with the New York State Commission For The Blind In Garden City Main Office Number, just a trade school type thing. Not pull out college. Went to meet with them today   Job placement woman was there too, reset on she just work school snack for you, so what I suck at math and English. Who is perfect at anything. I am bad with my spelling, it wasn’t for this technology this post will be even worse than it is with this voice dictation ha ha. Anyway have to keep on fighting that’s the update for me, got to take out the Thunderbird yesterday in the room with my cousin. Think we might hopefully go out again Saturday. Put some gas in it around for half an hour. 

marcogallo1986

 New York car guy, sorry to hear about the continuous mess insurance companies giving you. Yes once your claim is done definitely switch as soon as you can. 

marcogallo1986

 Floyd one glad your procedure went well the other day. And New York are kind awesome went to the auto show today is after me very cool. 

tjc78

Congrats, @tifighter

Mr_Shiftright

That's $3 bucks earned in California!

nyccarguy

sda said:

You and I balance out THE FORCE You've got your 3 EVs & I've got 2 out of 3 cars that get MPG in the high teens. Pilot went in for service yesterday. Synthetic Oil & Filter, Tire Rotation, New Struts for the Tailgate, & a new Homelink Module. Out of service for 2 days. Wife gets the Infiniti. I've been rowing my own in The Prelude for 2 days.

With the warranty work they didn’t give you a loaner? I know you enjoy having an excuse to drive the Prelude.

I’m always happy to have an excuse to drive my Prelude.  Although it poured last night and tonight’s commute home was a hot mess traffic wise.  I also don’t have parking at work anymore, so my car sits on the street of the South Bronx all day.

It’s my 1 gripe with Honda.  None of the Honda dealers around here give loaners.  We do have the extra car for the 2x per year (ish) that it goes in for service, so it really isn’t an inconvenience.  The thing is we both have to drop the car off, then both of us have to pick it up the next day (or 2 days later).  

tifighter

Mr_Shiftright said:

That's $3 bucks earned in California!

With the right equipment and timing, that's over $12 in Washington.

nyccarguy

Interesting to see what other solar companies give you.  I only know how much I produce per day, not how much I use.  In CT, we aren’t allowed to be more than 100% efficient & therefore cannot sell energy back to the grid.

carnaught

Congrats on the second Tesla @tifighter. You are now our go-to guy on Tesla’s and EV’s.

xwesx

tifighter said:

From the Tesla forums, I had heard of people having the Ludicrous mode removed at purchase (it's software), this would raise the 0-60 from 2.8sec to 3.5sec. Still seemed adequate So I contacted a sales advisor, and they agreed to it. This was a $20K line item, so it mattered.

Wow! What a fleecing by Tesla on that one! I'm not sure whether this is true, but I have also heard that battery capacity on these cars is software controlled rather than physical, so the lower range models don't actually cost anything different to build... you just have to pay more to "unlock" the true battery capacity. I guess if people are willing to pay for it.... :@

corvette

xwesx, from my reading, I think you're correct. They used to produce different physical batteries with lower and higher capacities, but any time you produce different variations on a model and have to change up the production line, it increases the costs.

I do see the issue with building a car to full spec and then essentially neutering it with software unless the buyer pays extra. On the other hand, it's similar to every OEM turbocharged vehicle ever sold--why not crank the boost up another couple of pounds? It's just that battery capacity is so much more obvious, like if the car had a 15 gallon fuel tank, but you could only use 10 unless you paid extra (and it took 30 minutes or more to refuel).

I also wonder how long it will be before they get hit with a lawsuit from an accident involving a Tesla that wasn't equipped with the full Autopilot package, although it was equipped with all of the hardware, where the accident might have been prevented if the software had simply enabled the existing hardware.

tifighter

xwesx said:

tifighter said:

From the Tesla forums, I had heard of people having the Ludicrous mode removed at purchase (it's software), this would raise the 0-60 from 2.8sec to 3.5sec. Still seemed adequate So I contacted a sales advisor, and they agreed to it. This was a $20K line item, so it mattered.

Wow! What a fleecing by Tesla on that one! I'm not sure whether this is true, but I have also heard that battery capacity on these cars is software controlled rather than physical, so the lower range models don't actually cost anything different to build... you just have to pay more to "unlock" the true battery capacity. I guess if people are willing to pay for it.... :@

Ludicrous is something like an extra 150+hp, so I'm not surprised they expect some extra margin on that one. Actually, your post reminds me that I forgot to mention the funniest part of my car. It still has the Ludicrous modes on it. Tesla just today said that current owners of S/X buying a new S/X Performance would get Ludicrous included for a limited time. I don't have one of those but maybe having the 3 Performance helps the case.

As for the batteries, this is true on some cars, but not all. For example, all the standard range 3's have the same pack, all the long range have the same pack, but SR and LR are different packs.

Michaell

Some more help - BMW lessee with a question....

https://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/55580/bmw/x1/would-you-buy-this-2016-bmw-x1-after-the-3yr-lease#latest

qbrozen

nyccarguy said:

Interesting to see what other solar companies give you.  I only know how much I produce per day, not how much I use.  In CT, we aren’t allowed to be more than 100% efficient & therefore cannot sell energy back to the grid.

You and I have the same provider. I’m now jealous that ti gets to see what he uses.

tifighter

Jeez, Q. You win the panel count contest by a country mile...

henryn

nyccarguy said:

sda said:

nyccarguy said:

You and I balance out THE FORCE

You've got your 3 EVs & I've got 2 out of 3 cars that get MPG in the high teens.

Pilot went in for service yesterday. Synthetic Oil & Filter, Tire Rotation, New Struts for the Tailgate, & a new Homelink Module. Out of service for 2 days. Wife gets the Infiniti. I've been rowing my own in The Prelude for 2 days.

With the warranty work they didn’t give you a loaner? I know you enjoy having an excuse to drive the Prelude.

I’m always happy to have an excuse to drive my Prelude.  Although it poured last night and tonight’s commute home was a hot mess traffic wise.  I also don’t have parking at work anymore, so my car sits on the street of the South Bronx all day.

It’s my 1 gripe with Honda.  None of the Honda dealers around here give loaners.  We do have the extra car for the 2x per year (ish) that it goes in for service, so it really isn’t an inconvenience.  The thing is we both have to drop the car off, then both of us have to pick it up the next day (or 2 days later).  

-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- end of quoted material =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=

While I have two cars here, I live alone, so no way I can do what you're doing. I have to use Uber, going and coming, which tends to add up.