Gee, I wonder why a gem like that isn’t CPO? It looks like the trouble didn’t really start until 16k miles or so, then it got bought back after only a couple of service visits?
Just wasting time thinking about the next couple of years in car sales....
Looking ahead to the release of 2022 calendar year sales data, it looks like Tesla will sell about 500,000 vehicles in the US in 2022, compared to about 300k in 2021. If things go according to plan in the Austin factory, 2023 should see production and sales of 1 million Tesla vehicles in the US, giving a year over year sales increase of about 100%. By 2024 Telsa will probably be able to make 1.5 million vehicles for the US, moving Tesla above the highest sales year ever at Honda, which was during 2019, with sales 1,451,000 Hondas.
During the chip shortage, many manufacturers said they were going to limit production even after the chip shortage ended, so that their profits would stay high. Well okay. But Tesla isn't going to limit production. As long as Teslsa can get enough chips and enough materials for their batteries, which they probably can, they are going to increase production dramatically. Next is said to be a huge Tesla factory in Mexico, which will probably be able to make another 1 million Teslas by 2026 or so, with maybe half of those headed for the US.
If the other vehicle companies limit production, while Tesla is increasing production by 50-100% a year for the next few years, the non-Tesla manufacturers are going to lose large amounts of market share.
Tesla itself, however, I think is going to need to cut prices significantly sell all of those EVs. I think the only way to sell all of those Teslas is to do something similar to Ford what did with the model T from 1912-1924, which was to cut prices.
I don't think Tesla will need to cut prices as drastically as Ford did with the model T, and I don't think Tesla will be able to. But I do think those who are able to wait till 2024 might be able to get that $35k Tesla Model 3 after all.
The bar on the Ford sales chart above that is closest to where Tesla is now would be 1916, because in 1916 Ford sold 501,000 Model Ts. Although production reached almost three quarters of a million in 1917, the Great War, and then a severe recession, hurt production and sales for a few years. But by 1922 Ford production had reached 1.3 million, and by 1923 it hit 2 million.
Here are the sales figures for Tesla in the US, which are somewhat similar to Ford's a century ago. The 2022 figures for Tesla are for the first 9 months of the year.
"Will Elon Musk’s Political Rantings Drive Tesla into the Ditch? Since taking over Twitter, Musk’s antagonistic behavior threatens to turn buyers off to his cars. BY JOE LORIO, PUBLISHED: DEC 20, 2022
....Tesla, by and large, created modern EV demand. At one time, those who were turned off by Musk's statements or behavior might nonetheless have overlooked them, owing to the dearth of EV alternatives. Today, though, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Genesis, GMC, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, Lexus, Lucid, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Polestar, Porsche, Rivian, Subaru, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo all offer electrics, with legions more heading to the on-ramp. And all of them are from automakers whose CEOs keep their politics to themselves."
@benjaminh said:
From the Jan. 2023 Consumer Reports. Toyota and Lexus are again at the top of the reliability list....
I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
From the Jan. 2023 Consumer Reports. Toyota and Lexus are again at the top of the reliability list....
I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?
The models are showing the best and worst reliability within each make. The score in the middle is the overall average reliability for each make
I just received this in my email. Very interesting, it sounds like the good old days are back (almost). $10,000 off MSRP, that is almost exactly the deal I got on my 2018 F150. Except somehow I don't really trust this offer. And what's with "PRE-ORDER", are they still taking orders for 2022 models?
And, lest we forget, $10k off of $54k isn't nearly as enticing as $10k off of $44k.
Up here in Kanada I am seeing similar TV ads for these with big incentives, either $10K or 15% off, something like that (I forget exactly). Of course it is a 2022 model, which they seem to have overbuilt, and it is not the "new" Ram pickup design, but the late-run version of the previous model.
Used car prices are supposed to be dropping like a stone but I was looking at cars and trucks on CL today and prices compared to two years ago are still through the roof. I mean, 20 year old domestic vehicles with 200k miles asking over $10k? Makes no sense.
When I did see an occasional car with decent price and miles I was suspicious that there was something wrong with it.
Am I expecting too much?
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?
Here's their explanation. Although the way CR measures this is flawed, it seems true that Toyota and Lexus have reliability that is way above average.
The 2023 Chevy Bolt EV has a 0-60 time of 6.8 seconds. MSRP starts at about $27,500, but on Jan. 1st it qualifies for the new $7500 tax credit. $20k seems like a great deal for this car.
@qbrozen said:
Also... the EV6 got double the score of the Ioniq 5, which are on the same platform. hmmm...
That happens quite a bit. I also think that it’s interesting that the reliability of a car can differ greatly from year to year when there has been no changes to the car.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
I wonder whether Chevrolet will increase the price on January 1. I'm not sure about GM specifically, but it seems like price adjustments have been the norm when tax rebate eligibility changes.
Hasn't the Corolla Cross only been out a few months? Probably wasn't even out when they started producing that issue. So what the heck?
The Corolla Cross came out about a year ago iirc.
ok, looks like north america production started a year ago ... but definitely not long enough with enough examples on the road, IMHO, to be able to rate its reliability.
Not that I have ever viewed CR as a viable source for me, but I always find issues with their data. The biggest problem with them is that they only survey CR subscribers. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that, largely speaking, those who focus on appliances will rate Toyota better than anything else. I bet if R&T or C&D polled their subscribers, the results would be quite different.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
I agree that the CR process is flawed. But overall if a VW is at the bottom of the list, it is probably unreliable, while if a Toyota is at the top you're not likely to have problems with it.
For models that haven't been out for a long time, I think they rely on past reliability ratings for mechanically similar models.
@corvette said:
I can't pass up the opportunity to congratulate VW on obtaining the worst possible score on the Taos. That must have taken a lot of effort!
I agree, very disappointing.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
Not that I have ever viewed CR as a viable source for me, but I always find issues with their data. The biggest problem with them is that they only survey CR subscribers. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that, largely speaking, those who focus on appliances will rate Toyota better than anything else. I bet if R&T or C&D polled their subscribers, the results would be quite different.
True, plus which the data are from a self-selected cohort, including those who are awfully proud of how smart they are to own such a swell vehicle and those who are especially upset with their vehicles. No way to get anything from the large group of people who don't want to be bothered with the (very) comprehensive annual survey. Annoying noise or car beside the road, dead? No telling.
In many cases, what they are tracking are “annoyances” rather than actual “reliability”. Some other sources talk about “initial quality”, which is more closely related to “annoyances”.
What would be most meaningful to me would be an actual count of the number of trips made to the service department under warranty. I have owned new cars and trucks that never went in for warranty work, and others which required several trips to the service department.
In my younger days, I drove mostly older used cars and trucks. I wanted to know if a 10 year old model with 100k miles would reliably get me to work and not leave me stranded beside the road. To this day, I still mainly think of reliability in that way. And in that regards, Honda and Toyota have always lead the pack. Closely followed by anything on the Cougar platform, and certain Buick models, such as the LeSabre.
Well, looking at their results and what is driving them, generally there isn’t anything surprising. Brands commonly known to be good or problematic tend to shake out that way.
that's crazy. I would NOT go through that. I was thinking: remove seats, maybe put a wall up behind driver, change to much larger rear door, add pull-out ramps, rattle can over the yellow, done. Would easily fit 2 vehicles and possibly 3 Kei cars.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
Farmers frequently buy those, chop the body off and turn them into flatbed haulers. To haul cars you’d need some ramps. Those usually sell for about 10% of original price and since new bus prices are up around $80-90k that one seems a bargain. https://youtu.be/F3Fh3dxphcc
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
That looks like a good option for taking the gang and all their worldly goods to the beach for a few weeks. Probably a lot less money than the hotel shuttle bus.
Around here, the ranchers used to buy delipidated school buses for really trifling sums, and scatter them around their ranch as storage for feed. Back in the day, I saw school buses go at auction for $100 to $200. Not running, but towable.
put the pajero up for sale on ebay. Had a local guy detail it today. He did a nice job. Got all the chrome looking spiffy. I'm trying for a quick sale and to keep from spending too much time on it, so I haven't fixed all that needs fixing. We'll see what happens.
Nissan buyer got their delivery today. She is very happy.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
@qbrozen said:
I suggest to the wife that, with some obvious modifications, this would make a brilliant means of transporting cars. She was not amused.
————————————————-
Gee and it doesn’t seem to be rusted out. We have a poster buddy that would like one of those just for nostalgia purposes.
jmonroe
'15 Genesis Ultimate just like jmonroe's. '18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
Comments
Gee, I wonder why a gem like that isn’t CPO? It looks like the trouble didn’t really start until 16k miles or so, then it got bought back after only a couple of service visits?
I’m finally able to report a punch.
Details tomorrow.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
Looking ahead to the release of 2022 calendar year sales data, it looks like Tesla will sell about 500,000 vehicles in the US in 2022, compared to about 300k in 2021. If things go according to plan in the Austin factory, 2023 should see production and sales of 1 million Tesla vehicles in the US, giving a year over year sales increase of about 100%. By 2024 Telsa will probably be able to make 1.5 million vehicles for the US, moving Tesla above the highest sales year ever at Honda, which was during 2019, with sales 1,451,000 Hondas.
During the chip shortage, many manufacturers said they were going to limit production even after the chip shortage ended, so that their profits would stay high. Well okay. But Tesla isn't going to limit production. As long as Teslsa can get enough chips and enough materials for their batteries, which they probably can, they are going to increase production dramatically. Next is said to be a huge Tesla factory in Mexico, which will probably be able to make another 1 million Teslas by 2026 or so, with maybe half of those headed for the US.
If the other vehicle companies limit production, while Tesla is increasing production by 50-100% a year for the next few years, the non-Tesla manufacturers are going to lose large amounts of market share.
Tesla itself, however, I think is going to need to cut prices significantly sell all of those EVs. I think the only way to sell all of those Teslas is to do something similar to Ford what did with the model T from 1912-1924, which was to cut prices.
I don't think Tesla will need to cut prices as drastically as Ford did with the model T, and I don't think Tesla will be able to. But I do think those who are able to wait till 2024 might be able to get that $35k Tesla Model 3 after all.
Here are the sales figures for Tesla in the US, which are somewhat similar to Ford's a century ago. The 2022 figures for Tesla are for the first 9 months of the year.
You’re a teaser.
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)
Oh yeah! Can’t wait to hear, @roadburner!
"Will Elon Musk’s Political Rantings Drive Tesla into the Ditch?
Since taking over Twitter, Musk’s antagonistic behavior threatens to turn buyers off to his cars.
BY JOE LORIO, PUBLISHED: DEC 20, 2022
....Tesla, by and large, created modern EV demand. At one time, those who were turned off by Musk's statements or behavior might nonetheless have overlooked them, owing to the dearth of EV alternatives. Today, though, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Genesis, GMC, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, Lexus, Lucid, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Polestar, Porsche, Rivian, Subaru, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo all offer electrics, with legions more heading to the on-ramp. And all of them are from automakers whose CEOs keep their politics to themselves."
I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?
The models are showing the best and worst reliability within each make. The score in the middle is the overall average reliability for each make
But, I don't know the parameters
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2017 Cadillac ATS Performance Premium 3.6
When I did see an occasional car with decent price and miles I was suspicious that there was something wrong with it.
Am I expecting too much?
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
As you should be suspicious of ANY used vehicle regardless of where it is listed for sale:)
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
That happens quite a bit. I also think that it’s interesting that the reliability of a car can differ greatly from year to year when there has been no changes to the car.
Mine: 1995 318ti Club Sport-2020 C43-1996 Speed Triple Challenge Cup Replica
Wife's: 2021 Sahara 4xe
Son's: 2018 330i xDrive
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
25 NX 450h+ / 24 Sienna Plat AWD / 23 Civic Type-R / 21 Boxster GTS 4.0
Not that I have ever viewed CR as a viable source for me, but I always find issues with their data. The biggest problem with them is that they only survey CR subscribers. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that, largely speaking, those who focus on appliances will rate Toyota better than anything else. I bet if R&T or C&D polled their subscribers, the results would be quite different.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
For models that haven't been out for a long time, I think they rely on past reliability ratings for mechanically similar models.
I agree, very disappointing.
2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
2001 Prelude Type SH, 2022 Highlander XLE AWD, 2025 Camry SE AWD
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
What would be most meaningful to me would be an actual count of the number of trips made to the service department under warranty. I have owned new cars and trucks that never went in for warranty work, and others which required several trips to the service department.
In my younger days, I drove mostly older used cars and trucks. I wanted to know if a 10 year old model with 100k miles would reliably get me to work and not leave me stranded beside the road. To this day, I still mainly think of reliability in that way. And in that regards, Honda and Toyota have always lead the pack. Closely followed by anything on the Cougar platform, and certain Buick models, such as the LeSabre.
Well, looking at their results and what is driving them, generally there isn’t anything surprising. Brands commonly known to be good or problematic tend to shake out that way.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
2019 Kia Soul+, 2015 Mustang GT, 2013 Ford F-150, 2000 Chrysler Sebring convertible
2017 Cadillac ATS Performance Premium 3.6
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2021 VW Arteon SEL 4-motion, 2018 VW Passat SE w/tech, 2016 Audi Q5 Premium Plus w/tech
Or, the deal fell through and doesn't want to share that with us.
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2015 Subaru Outback 3.6R / 2024 Kia Sportage Hybrid SX Prestige
Nissan buyer got their delivery today. She is very happy.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
————————————————-
Gee and it doesn’t seem to be rusted out. We have a poster buddy that would like one of those just for nostalgia purposes.
jmonroe
'18 Legacy Limited with 3.6R (Mrs. j's)