Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

xwesx

mjfloyd1 said:

Here is a great deal if you like lemon buy back with 3 accidents on the carfax. Looks like they have had it for over a year too.

https://www.motorwerks.com/inventory/used-2019-mercedes-benz-s-class-s-63-amg®-4matic®-4d-sedan-wddug8jbxka479493/

I wonder if they'd take $42,000 for it.

corvette

Gee, I wonder why a gem like that isn’t CPO? It looks like the trouble didn’t really start until 16k miles or so, then it got bought back after only a couple of service visits?

benjaminh

From the Jan. 2023 Consumer Reports. Toyota and Lexus are again at the top of the reliability list....

roadburner

I’m finally able to report a punch.
Details tomorrow.

benjaminh

Just wasting time thinking about the next couple of years in car sales....

Looking ahead to the release of 2022 calendar year sales data, it looks like Tesla will sell about 500,000 vehicles in the US in 2022, compared to about 300k in 2021. If things go according to plan in the Austin factory, 2023 should see production and sales of 1 million Tesla vehicles in the US, giving a year over year sales increase of about 100%. By 2024 Telsa will probably be able to make 1.5 million vehicles for the US, moving Tesla above the highest sales year ever at Honda, which was during 2019, with sales 1,451,000 Hondas.

During the chip shortage, many manufacturers said they were going to limit production even after the chip shortage ended, so that their profits would stay high. Well okay. But Tesla isn't going to limit production. As long as Teslsa can get enough chips and enough materials for their batteries, which they probably can, they are going to increase production dramatically. Next is said to be a huge Tesla factory in Mexico, which will probably be able to make another 1 million Teslas by 2026 or so, with maybe half of those headed for the US.

If the other vehicle companies limit production, while Tesla is increasing production by 50-100% a year for the next few years, the non-Tesla manufacturers are going to lose large amounts of market share.

Tesla itself, however, I think is going to need to cut prices significantly sell all of those EVs. I think the only way to sell all of those Teslas is to do something similar to Ford what did with the model T from 1912-1924, which was to cut prices.

I don't think Tesla will need to cut prices as drastically as Ford did with the model T, and I don't think Tesla will be able to. But I do think those who are able to wait till 2024 might be able to get that $35k Tesla Model 3 after all.

benjaminh

The bar on the Ford sales chart above that is closest to where Tesla is now would be 1916, because in 1916 Ford sold 501,000 Model Ts. Although production reached almost three quarters of a million in 1917, the Great War, and then a severe recession, hurt production and sales for a few years. But by 1922 Ford production had reached 1.3 million, and by 1923 it hit 2 million.

Here are the sales figures for Tesla in the US, which are somewhat similar to Ford's a century ago. The 2022 figures for Tesla are for the first 9 months of the year.

jmonroe1

roadburner said:

I’m finally able to report a punch.

Details tomorrow.

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You’re a teaser.

jmonroe

28firefighter

Oh yeah! Can’t wait to hear, @roadburner!

benjaminh

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a42270163/elon-musk-political-rantings-tesla-future/

"Will Elon Musk’s Political Rantings Drive Tesla into the Ditch?
Since taking over Twitter, Musk’s antagonistic behavior threatens to turn buyers off to his cars.
BY JOE LORIO, PUBLISHED: DEC 20, 2022

....Tesla, by and large, created modern EV demand. At one time, those who were turned off by Musk's statements or behavior might nonetheless have overlooked them, owing to the dearth of EV alternatives. Today, though, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Genesis, GMC, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, Lexus, Lucid, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Polestar, Porsche, Rivian, Subaru, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo all offer electrics, with legions more heading to the on-ramp. And all of them are from automakers whose CEOs keep their politics to themselves."

qbrozen

@benjaminh said:
From the Jan. 2023 Consumer Reports. Toyota and Lexus are again at the top of the reliability list....

I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?

kyfdx

qbrozen said:

@benjaminh said:

From the Jan. 2023 Consumer Reports. Toyota and Lexus are again at the top of the reliability list....

I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?

The models are showing the best and worst reliability within each make. The score in the middle is the overall average reliability for each make

But, I don't know the parameters

ab348

henryn said:

I just received this in my email. Very interesting, it sounds like the good old days are back (almost). $10,000 off MSRP, that is almost exactly the deal I got on my 2018 F150. Except somehow I don't really trust this offer. And what's with "PRE-ORDER", are they still taking orders for 2022 models?

And, lest we forget, $10k off of $54k isn't nearly as enticing as $10k off of $44k.

Up here in Kanada I am seeing similar TV ads for these with big incentives, either $10K or 15% off, something like that (I forget exactly). Of course it is a 2022 model, which they seem to have overbuilt, and it is not the "new" Ram pickup design, but the late-run version of the previous model.

oldfarmer50

Used car prices are supposed to be dropping like a stone but I was looking at cars and trucks on CL today and prices compared to two years ago are still through the roof. I mean, 20 year old domestic vehicles with 200k miles asking over $10k? Makes no sense.

When I did see an occasional car with decent price and miles I was suspicious that there was something wrong with it.

Am I expecting too much?

nyccarguy

"When I did see an occasional car with decent price and miles I was suspicious that there was something wrong with it."

As you should be suspicious of ANY used vehicle regardless of where it is listed for sale:)

benjaminh

Interesting 12-minute video tour of the factory building the Ford F-150 Lightning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8Jlod53BCU

benjaminh

qbrozen said:

I can’t quite see what is going on here. What does it say up top? What kind of reliability is this? Meaning what are the parameters? 5 years? 5 mos? And what is with the random models on each side of the line and what does the number represent?

Here's their explanation. Although the way CR measures this is flawed, it seems true that Toyota and Lexus have reliability that is way above average.

corvette

I can't pass up the opportunity to congratulate VW on obtaining the worst possible score on the Taos. That must have taken a lot of effort!

benjaminh

The Ford Maverick is top rated for small pickups. That's good news.

nyccarguy

I saw a White VW iD4 with a Black roof the other day. Very sharp looking.

qbrozen

Hasn't the Corolla Cross only been out a few months? Probably wasn't even out when they started producing that issue. So what the heck?

qbrozen

Also... the EV6 got double the score of the Ioniq 5, which are on the same platform. hmmm...

benjaminh

The 2023 Chevy Bolt EV has a 0-60 time of 6.8 seconds. MSRP starts at about $27,500, but on Jan. 1st it qualifies for the new $7500 tax credit. $20k seems like a great deal for this car.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEnZSUsDpw4

roadburner

@qbrozen said:
Also... the EV6 got double the score of the Ioniq 5, which are on the same platform. hmmm...

That happens quite a bit. I also think that it’s interesting that the reliability of a car can differ greatly from year to year when there has been no changes to the car.

nyccarguy

@roadburner - C'mon! You are killing us!

benjaminh

qbrozen said:

Hasn't the Corolla Cross only been out a few months? Probably wasn't even out when they started producing that issue. So what the heck?

The Corolla Cross came out about a year ago iirc.

corvette

I wonder whether Chevrolet will increase the price on January 1. I'm not sure about GM specifically, but it seems like price adjustments have been the norm when tax rebate eligibility changes.

tifighter

Opportunity knocks -

qbrozen

benjaminh said:

qbrozen said:

Hasn't the Corolla Cross only been out a few months? Probably wasn't even out when they started producing that issue. So what the heck?

The Corolla Cross came out about a year ago iirc.

ok, looks like north america production started a year ago ... but definitely not long enough with enough examples on the road, IMHO, to be able to rate its reliability.

Not that I have ever viewed CR as a viable source for me, but I always find issues with their data. The biggest problem with them is that they only survey CR subscribers. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that, largely speaking, those who focus on appliances will rate Toyota better than anything else. I bet if R&T or C&D polled their subscribers, the results would be quite different.

benjaminh

I agree that the CR process is flawed. But overall if a VW is at the bottom of the list, it is probably unreliable, while if a Toyota is at the top you're not likely to have problems with it.

For models that haven't been out for a long time, I think they rely on past reliability ratings for mechanically similar models.

sda

@corvette said:
I can't pass up the opportunity to congratulate VW on obtaining the worst possible score on the Taos. That must have taken a lot of effort!

I agree, very disappointing.

cdnpinhead

qbrozen said:

Not that I have ever viewed CR as a viable source for me, but I always find issues with their data. The biggest problem with them is that they only survey CR subscribers. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that, largely speaking, those who focus on appliances will rate Toyota better than anything else. I bet if R&T or C&D polled their subscribers, the results would be quite different.

True, plus which the data are from a self-selected cohort, including those who are awfully proud of how smart they are to own such a swell vehicle and those who are especially upset with their vehicles. No way to get anything from the large group of people who don't want to be bothered with the (very) comprehensive annual survey. Annoying noise or car beside the road, dead? No telling.

nyccarguy

Price drop on my Wrangler to $61,990

benjaminh

nyccarguy said:

Price drop on my Wrangler to $61,990

From what previous price?

explorerx4

I looked up CR's definition of reliability years ago and have not given it any credence since then.

qbrozen

I suggest to the wife that, with some obvious modifications, this would make a brilliant means of transporting cars. She was not amused.

henryn

In many cases, what they are tracking are “annoyances” rather than actual “reliability”. Some other sources talk about “initial quality”, which is more closely related to “annoyances”.

What would be most meaningful to me would be an actual count of the number of trips made to the service department under warranty. I have owned new cars and trucks that never went in for warranty work, and others which required several trips to the service department.

In my younger days, I drove mostly older used cars and trucks. I wanted to know if a 10 year old model with 100k miles would reliably get me to work and not leave me stranded beside the road. To this day, I still mainly think of reliability in that way. And in that regards, Honda and Toyota have always lead the pack. Closely followed by anything on the Cougar platform, and certain Buick models, such as the LeSabre.

stickguy

Well, looking at their results and what is driving them, generally there isn’t anything surprising. Brands commonly known to be good or problematic tend to shake out that way.

xwesx

qbrozen said:

I suggest to the wife that, with some obvious modifications, this would make a brilliant means of transporting cars. She was not amused.

Q, you're just going to have to accept that not everyone is as practical as you!

stickguy

Already being done. here is your roadmap. Though you might not want to show this to your wife.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FGN-w-tRf8

qbrozen

that's crazy. I would NOT go through that. I was thinking: remove seats, maybe put a wall up behind driver, change to much larger rear door, add pull-out ramps, rattle can over the yellow, done. Would easily fit 2 vehicles and possibly 3 Kei cars.

oldfarmer50

qbrozen said:

I suggest to the wife that, with some obvious modifications, this would make a brilliant means of transporting cars. She was not amused.

Farmers frequently buy those, chop the body off and turn them into flatbed haulers. To haul cars you’d need some ramps. Those usually sell for about 10% of original price and since new bus prices are up around $80-90k that one seems a bargain.
https://youtu.be/F3Fh3dxphcc

ab348

qbrozen said:

I suggest to the wife that, with some obvious modifications, this would make a brilliant means of transporting cars. She was not amused.

That looks like a good option for taking the gang and all their worldly goods to the beach for a few weeks. Probably a lot less money than the hotel shuttle bus.

fintail

tifighter said:

Opportunity knocks -

I wonder if that's what you get with a 75K ADM.

kyfdx

fintail said:

tifighter said:

Opportunity knocks -

I wonder if that's what you get with a 75K ADM.

How much is the "downpayment"? Because $2800/mo, is probably not that bad, for that vehicle.

henryn

Around here, the ranchers used to buy delipidated school buses for really trifling sums, and scatter them around their ranch as storage for feed. Back in the day, I saw school buses go at auction for $100 to $200. Not running, but towable.

sda

Did I somehow miss @roadburner update on his punch?

Michaell

sda said:

Did I somehow miss @roadburner update on his punch?

No - he's holding us hostage with the information.

Or, the deal fell through and doesn't want to share that with us.

xwesx

Michaell said:

No - he's holding us hostage with the information.

Or, the deal fell through and doesn't want to share that with us.

He doesn't punch very often; he's milking this thing for all it's worth!

qbrozen

put the pajero up for sale on ebay. Had a local guy detail it today. He did a nice job. Got all the chrome looking spiffy. I'm trying for a quick sale and to keep from spending too much time on it, so I haven't fixed all that needs fixing. We'll see what happens.

Nissan buyer got their delivery today. She is very happy.

jmonroe1

@qbrozen said:
I suggest to the wife that, with some obvious modifications, this would make a brilliant means of transporting cars. She was not amused.

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Gee and it doesn’t seem to be rusted out. We have a poster buddy that would like one of those just for nostalgia purposes.

jmonroe