Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

jmonroe1

corvette said:

jmonroe1 said:

Speaking of punches, what’s the tally so far this year @corvette and what was last year’s?

41 in 2022.
36 so far this year, counting Sandy's wife's punch.

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Thanks. So, you’re sayin there’s a chance.

jmonroe

nyccarguy

@Sandman6472 - Mazel Tov!

stickguy

corvette said:

With regards to EVs, IMO, the manufacturers made assumptions that battery costs would decrease according to a certain, rapid, scale, and it didn't happen nearly as quickly as their assumptions, hence the death of affordable EVs like the Bolt, and manufacturers pivoting towards premium products where it's easier for them to hide the unexpectedly high battery cost.

the real breakthrough (the long game the manufacturers are likely banking on) is breakthroughs in battery tech. Seems like there is a lot of promising research is going on, just a matter of when and what. Of course, entirely possible it will obsolete current offerings (as opposed to being able to retrofit new battery types into existing platforms) but that is something the market will figure out. And also a huge reason that leasing an EV is the smart option still (and what I would do if I wanted to get one).

tjc78

Congrats Sandy!

benjaminh

After watching this 40-minute review of the Cybertruck at 2x speed, I can see why the model that's available for order is now $80k + destination. Not a vehicle I'd want, and yet as production is ramped up over the next couple of years it's clear we're going to be seeing these on the road. Sandy Munro in another video estimated that in two years production might reach 250,000 annually. Since Ford seemingly can't sell its planned production of 150k Lightnings a year, but maybe around one-third of that, 250k is obviously a big number—and seems aspirational. But it makes sense that the Tesla factory in Austin is so huge to enable mass production of this very large vehicle. Read elsewhere that some within Tesla were against the Cybertruck for financial reasons, because it's so difficult and expensive to make at scale. Even with the lofty list price, apparently they are losing lots of money on every one they make. But eventually, if they can get production to 250k, which is a big if, they might break even on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxOh12Uhg08

Sandman6472

Still think she should've gotten the 2024 Kona but those extra 6" really made her feel uncomfortable. Do think after a few days, she would've been fine though. But she's thrilled so that's all that matters really!

Like when we picked up the Accent in 2008 and 2019, I was asked to drive the vehicle home as it was night and the girls wanted their first real drive to be during the day, which was totally understandable. Luckily, we live right across the street from Coconut Creek Hyundai where she bought the Kona. I've driven so many Kona's, Accents, well, you name it, I just get in and drive. A quick change of seating position and mirrors, and I'm outta there! Since most auto tranny vehicles are the same, give or take, the learning curve is quite small except of course for the newer tech, which I still get confused with at times!

qbrozen

I believe the Lightning demand dropped rapidly after enough real world evidence surfaced demonstrating that it fails as a truck. The market demanded an electric truck, not another sedan with stupidly large trunk.

tjc78

@qbrozen said:
I believe the Lightning demand dropped rapidly after enough real world evidence surfaced demonstrating that it fails as a truck. The market demanded an electric truck, not another sedan with stupidly large trunk.

I’m really curious about the RamCharger coming out. It appears to be the real deal. All electric but the gas engine kicks in to increase range.

benjaminh

Some numbers Musk promised in 2019 for the Cybertruck didn't pan out:

"At the original Cybertruck unveiling, Tesla said the truck would start at $39,900, be available in late 2021, have a payload of 3,500 pounds in a 6.5-foot bed, a tow rating of up to 14,000 pounds, and a max range of 500+ miles for the top-end version (which was meant to start at $69,900).

As of yesterday, we know that none of those numbers are true. The truck starts at $79,990 today, has a payload of 2,500 pounds in a 6-foot bed, a tow rating of up to 11,000 pounds, and a range of 340 miles."

https://electrek.co/2023/12/01/teslas-botched-cybertruck-event-is-good-news-for-rivian-other-ev-truck-makers/

And yet, this year the Model Y will be by far the best-selling electric vehicle in the world, with around 800,000 sold worldwide, including nearly 300k in the US. With Berlin and Austin still ramping up, it seems likely that in 2024 more than one million units of the Y will be sold worldwide.

But my guess is that after a few years, once initial demand is met, that the Cybertruck will be a niche vehicle. I don't think it's going to be a big threat to the F-150. But we'll see.

tjc78

Cyber truck could be the ugliest vehicle ever produced. It looks like someone took a Pontiac Aztek and had Godzilla sit on it.

As for Elon and his comments about pricing etc. I’m not surprised at all.

au1994

Yeah, the Cyber truck looks like something I drew in the 3rd grade.


$80k? no way…

nyccarguy

"but those extra 6" really made her feel uncomfortable"

Hey Now!

stickguy

@tjc78 said:

@qbrozen said:
I believe the Lightning demand dropped rapidly after enough real world evidence surfaced demonstrating that it fails as a truck. The market demanded an electric truck, not another sedan with stupidly large trunk.

I’m really curious about the RamCharger coming out. It appears to be the real deal. All electric but the gas engine kicks in to increase range.

Yeah, to, me, that’s the perfect solution. In concept!

qbrozen

benjaminh said:

Some numbers Musk promised in 2019 for the Cybertruck didn't pan out:

"At the original Cybertruck unveiling, Tesla said the truck would start at $39,900, be available in late 2021, have a payload of 3,500 pounds in a 6.5-foot bed, a tow rating of up to 14,000 pounds, and a max range of 500+ miles for the top-end version (which was meant to start at $69,900).

As of yesterday, we know that none of those numbers are true. The truck starts at $79,990 today, has a payload of 2,500 pounds in a 6-foot bed, a tow rating of up to 11,000 pounds, and a range of 340 miles."

https://electrek.co/2023/12/01/teslas-botched-cybertruck-event-is-good-news-for-rivian-other-ev-truck-makers/

And yet, this year the Model Y will be by far the best-selling electric vehicle in the world, with around 800,000 sold worldwide, including nearly 300k in the US. With Berlin and Austin still ramping up, it seems likely that in 2024 more than one million units of the Y will be sold worldwide.

But my guess is that after a few years, once initial demand is met, that the Cybertruck will be a niche vehicle. I don't think it's going to be a big threat to the F-150. But we'll see.

What?? Musk overpromised (lied) and underdelivered? Say it ain't so!

explorerx4

The Ramcharger is supposedly rated for 690 miles of range.
Battery is 150 and the other 540 is generated using the gas engine, so about 20 mpg.
You also lose the frunck and have 2 full systems to support.

tjc78

Depends on the use. I’d rarely ever need the gas engine for 90% of my driving.

explorerx4

@tjv78.
You would be lugging around all that extra weight for nothing then and there still wouldn't be a frunk.

breld

Speaking of punch counts, just want to point out that my wife passed her 1 year anniversary on the Mach-E a couple weeks ago, and is a week away from the 1 year on her MINI. Woo-hoo!

Having said that, she is starting to obsess over something new, as she claims her biological clock is ticking (not that one, the one for a new vehicle!).

tifighter

Worth a watch if you haven’t already seen it-

https://youtu.be/L6WDq0V5oBg?si=xvJQqICM1WkQaene

He seemed pretty impressed, and Cammisa isn’t easily impressed.

jmonroe1

breld said:

Speaking of punch counts, just want to point out that my wife passed her 1 year anniversary on the Mach-E a couple weeks ago, and is a week away from the 1 year on her MINI. Woo-hoo!

Having said that, she is starting to obsess over something new, as she claims her biological clock is ticking (not that one, the one for a new vehicle!).

————————————————
That’s the one that can’t be fixed with a pill.

jmonroe

pensfan83

Passed 3,000 miles on the MDX last week, so about 1,800 miles in 3 months.

The good - It's comfortable, roomy, and while not a canyon carver it acquits itself pretty good for the size vehicle it is when you throw it in Sport+ mode. On the highway, in Comfort mode, it cruises effortlessly. ELS is stellar. USB ports abound, so now tablets and phones can get charged at the same time...first world problems and all that. I'm looking into ordering the cross rails for the roof and a carrier to have on hand for those times we need 3 rows and more cargo room.

- The bad - Gas mileage, hands down, is the biggest gripe. Highest average on the highway is a little over 23MPG. Most of its use is around town where it's closer to 17-18 MPG and what the truck gets with its antiquated powertrain. Not great for a company who is (was?) known for producing great powerplants. Speaking of power, it's more than adequate 90% of the time, but it feels less responsive in the upper RPMs. Moot point though because I'm the only one who has and who will run it up that high. Wireless charger is finnicky, if the phone isn't positioned a certain way it'll start/stop charging.

I know we're pretty boring by sticking with Acura again, but we've yet to be disappointed in any of them.

ab348

Automotive News is reporting that the little Jeep Renegade is leaving US and Canadian markets at the end of the year, with the Compass taking over as Jeep’s smallest model here. I haven’t seen very many Renegades on the roads around here so I guess sales are sluggish.

stickguy

I could never remember the difference between the 2 anyway so better off just having one good small model instead of 2 lousy fiat based cars.

greg128

tifighter said:

Worth a watch if you haven’t already seen it-

https://youtu.be/L6WDq0V5oBg?si=xvJQqICM1WkQaene

He seemed pretty impressed, and Cammisa isn’t easily impressed.

Despite the looks this truck is amazing. It accelerates like a Corvette E-Ray and the stainless steel panels are so rigid that no inner frame is needed. The 48 volt electrical which lowers power draw and fully electric steering are innovations which we will see more of in the future. I think there are 2 million pre-orders which would equate to $160 Billion in sales. All components are made in house by Tesla in the US.

Tesla EV technology is far ahead of any other auto manufacturer and they can produce them at scale. This shows what can be done with an engineer at the head of a company. GM, Ford and others playing catch-up are losing billions trying to meet idiotic government EV mandates.

28firefighter

Not that anyone here is ever looking or anything, but looks like VW is blowing out the ID.4 right now across the lineup. My local dealer is offering $6250 off plus rebates on a lease.

stickguy

Interesting. Should show my wife one. Too bad I’m not still in NJ where they don’t charge tax on an EV.

stickguy

Speaking of them I was just reminded of the perfect use case for an EV, especially lower powered cheap ones. The mailman just came and I always thought the post office is perfect for an EV. All local low speed driving and not many miles. And they all go back to the same place to park overnight. Likely would not have to charge more than once a week.

Just set up enough chargers to have them rotate on assigned days. Should be doing this instead of the gas powered mail truck if the future Willis seems to never arrive.

kyfdx

stickguy said:

Speaking of them I was just reminded of the perfect use case for an EV, especially lower powered cheap ones. The mailman just came and I always thought the post office is perfect for an EV. All local low speed driving and not many miles. And they all go back to the same place to park overnight. Likely would not have to charge more than once a week.

Just set up enough chargers to have them rotate on assigned days. Should be doing this instead of the gas powered mail truck if the future Willis seems to never arrive.

Any sort of delivery truck is a candidate for EV. Fedex and UPS have pilot programs.

mjfloyd1

pensfan83 said:

Passed 3,000 miles on the MDX last week, so about 1,800 miles in 3 months.

The good - It's comfortable, roomy, and while not a canyon carver it acquits itself pretty good for the size vehicle it is when you throw it in Sport+ mode. On the highway, in Comfort mode, it cruises effortlessly. ELS is stellar. USB ports abound, so now tablets and phones can get charged at the same time...first world problems and all that. I'm looking into ordering the cross rails for the roof and a carrier to have on hand for those times we need 3 rows and more cargo room.

- The bad - Gas mileage, hands down, is the biggest gripe. Highest average on the highway is a little over 23MPG. Most of its use is around town where it's closer to 17-18 MPG and what the truck gets with its antiquated powertrain. Not great for a company who is (was?) known for producing great powerplants. Speaking of power, it's more than adequate 90% of the time, but it feels less responsive in the upper RPMs. Moot point though because I'm the only one who has and who will run it up that high. Wireless charger is finnicky, if the phone isn't positioned a certain way it'll start/stop charging.

I know we're pretty boring by sticking with Acura again, but we've yet to be disappointed in any of them.

Ya gotta say “yo, the VTEC is kickin in” and the upper rpm hp comes alive😎

mjfloyd1

Congrats on the Kona @Sandman6472

mjfloyd1

breld said:

Speaking of punch counts, just want to point out that my wife passed her 1 year anniversary on the Mach-E a couple weeks ago, and is a week away from the 1 year on her MINI. Woo-hoo!

Having said that, she is starting to obsess over something new, as she claims her biological clock is ticking (not that one, the one for a new vehicle!).

Anybody call dibs on those two vehicles yet?😂

pensfan83

@mjfloyd1 said:
Ya gotta say “yo, the VTEC is kickin in” and the upper rpm hp comes alive😎

Pleaese. I do that in the Prelude while rocking out to Offspring dressed in my Nirvana t-shirt and Airwalk shoes.

Michaell

@kyfdx said:
Any sort of delivery truck is a candidate for EV. Fedex and UPS have pilot programs.

I’ve seen the new Rivian delivery vans in my neighborhood.

oldfarmer50

corvette said:

jmonroe1 said:

Speaking of punches, what’s the tally so far this year @corvette and what was last year’s?

41 in 2022.
36 so far this year, counting Sandy's wife's punch.

I tried to get a punch, I really did. I was zeroed in on a low mile (55k) 2011 Ranger in New Hampshire and tried to get past the “come on down” nonsense but the dealer was resistant to my request for pictures before I came in.

After multiple requests I got a call and the salesman said he didn’t want to “crawl around” under a truck taking pictures but admitted that the last foot of the bed was rotted off so he assumed it had “some rust”.

stickguy

Farmer, good news. I guaranteed no snow this year!

went out and got a couple of gallons of the premium, non-ethanol gas at Stewarts, put some staybilt in the snow blower and added some fresh gas (tank seemed empty) and it fired right up. So I am ready for the storms, so of course they won't come.

jmonroe1

stickguy said:

Farmer, good news. I guaranteed no snow this year!

went out and got a couple of gallons of the premium, non-ethanol gas at Stewarts, put some staybilt in the snow blower and added some fresh gas (tank seemed empty) and it fired right up. So I am ready for the storms, so of course they won't come.

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We had the mildest Winter last year that I ever remember here in the Burgh. That spoiled me. Are there any homes for sale in your area. I could go for another “nice” Winter. And, no, I don’t want to hear about the one you trashed and are getting ready to move out of.

jmonroe

ab348

We got 8” of snow overnight. Supposed to be cold all week too. Boo hiss.

Sandman6472

NY, I admit I didn't notice what I wrote last night about those pesky "six inches" but you did make me laugh by mentioning my faux pas. No one slept really well last night as it was a busy day. I never take a new vehicle home on the same day but this is the third time the wife has done it. Bought the Tucson on a Sunday and refused to take it home till that Monday and they were happy to do it. Same with the Golf. I like to get everything in order before I drive it off the lot though it probably isn't necessary. Since it was Sunday and Janet had to work today at noon, she decided to take it home last night.

Think it'll take her a good week to figure out all the stuff it came with, she'll need to read the owners manual a bit. Once I see it in the daylight, I'll take a pic and post it. But it's a nice shade of dark gray and won't show any dirt. The sales guy told her she could stop in for a free car wash whenever she wants so we'll see if this really is true. The Audi sales guy said the same thing which turned out to be false, so she's still unsure. Told her to just go do it next week and see what they do as it's so close to our development. Turns out she's going up to St. Augustine on the 22nd & coming home on the 25th but will take the train as she doesn't want to drive four hours alone. I'd go but, daughter hasn't gotten a couch yet and not sleeping in a hotel that busy weekend. We could all stay at her apartment but the couch is a must. Also, I'm still recovering and don't really want to go on another long drive so best I stay home & rest in the quiet house!

roadburner

The Renegade is built on the same platform as the Fiat 500X. The 4WD is FWD based. It's even available in Trailhawk trim. I think it's not a bad subcompact SUV, but sales were never that great.

Sandman6472

Got into the upper 50's last week and supposed to do the same Wednesday night...a big deal for us southern folks. Wish we'd have a cool stretch as when temps get down to the high 40's at night, the cinder block construction holds in the cold for a few days so a/c is not needed. And not using the a/c for a bit is a big deal around here as it's always on. Love it when we can just use the fans to move the air around while staying cool and not sweating. Think I really need a more temperate climate to live in which is why the Northern Florida area could actually work for us. St. Augustine is nice from what I've seen and don't really want to be that far inland like Orlando.

So the current plan, Plan A, is to sell & move by the end of 2025 at this point. Figure it'll take that long to purge the place and get my wife to finally give up her part time gig in Ft. Lauderdale which she loves. The TurboTax gig can be done from anywhere so not a problem and there are Enterprise locations in the larger cities so I could possibly transfer if I don't decide to retire again. But am leaning in that direction, truth be told. That's why I want to have a new vehicle before that just in case that income does go away. And of course, we'd have to but a smaller place and hopefully bank a good $100K at least. A small 3/2 could definitely work as long as she has her own office.

So exciting things to look forward to just as long as I stay healthy. These past few years have been hard on my body and have started to implement some small changes. Finding out that moderation in life is the key to staying healthy b y not taking anything to the extreme. I no longer take my health for granted and just want to be normal again...whatever that is!

cdnpinhead

greg128 said:

tifighter said:

Tesla EV technology is far ahead of any other auto manufacturer and they can produce them at scale. This shows what can be done with an engineer at the head of a company. GM, Ford and others playing catch-up are losing billions trying to meet idiotic government EV mandates.

I expect that you're going to get a fair amount of flack, but your post was interesting, at least to me.

tifighter

It’s 59 degrees here and raining at nearly 10pm. The atmospheric river strikes the PNW again…

benjaminh

Ford's website still says:

"Ford is investing more than $50 billion in electric vehicles globally through 2026 to develop breakthrough EVs. The company plans to manufacture them at scale at a run rate of 600,000 electric vehicles globally by 2024 and then eventually 2 million."


https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/media-kits/2021/electric-vehicles.html.html
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/07/21/ford-battery-capacity-raw-materials-scale-evs.html

But now the projected 270,000 Mach-Es for 2024 looks like it will be around 60,000 (40k sold in the US, and another 20k sold in Europe). Ford will probably also sell about 60,000 Lightnings worldwide. The imagined 600,000 Ford EVs for 2024 will be closer to 200,000. It's difficult to see how 2 million Ford EVs a year ever happens. Will GM's EV program crash in a similar way?

A big story for the last few years has been the rise of the EV, supposedly leading to about 40% of vehicle sales in the US being EVs by 2030, and around 80% by 2035. It doesn't seem like that's going to happen.

Currently EV market share in the US is about 7%. Probably that will double in the next five years or so, mainly because of Tesla, but the future after that looks uncertain.

benjaminh

"Musk has said Tesla was likely to reach a production rate of roughly 250,000 Cybertrucks a year in 2025."

Cybertruck production for 2024 is estimated to be 75,000, although that might be optimistic.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-falls-long-wait-cybertruck-payoff-hefty-price-tag-2023-12-01/#:~:text=Musk has said Tesla was,Cybertrucks a year in 2025.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-reservations-2-million/

Tesla has 2 million reservations for the Cybertruck, and so if even a quarter of those follow through the production will easily sell out for the first few years.

Since Musk's projected numbers rarely pan out, my guess is that Cybertruck production will actually be more like 30,000 in 2024, maybe 100,000 in 2025, and then c. 150,000 in 2026. I feel like real world demand for the Cybertruck will peak at around 150k a year, and then decline after that. But we'll see. That's still a huge number of Cybertrucks, and by 2026 we'll probably be seeing them everywhere.

For comparison, Ford will sell about 700,000 F-series trucks in the US this year.

tjc78

@explorerx4 said:
@tjv78.
You would be lugging around all that extra weight for nothing then and there still wouldn't be a frunk.

Yeah the frunk is a nice thing to have. For something I’d lease and use for very little for actual truck duties, I think it is at least worth a look.

kyfdx

I have a frunk on my Cayman. It's surprisingly roomy

tjc78

@kyfdx said:
I have a frunk on my Cayman. It's surprisingly roomy

My EQE does not. There isn’t even a way to open the hood (at least obviously)

kyfdx

tjc78 said:

@kyfdx said:

I have a frunk on my Cayman. It's surprisingly roomy

My EQE does not. There isn’t even a way to open the hood (at least obviously)

I think I could fit two pieces of carry on luggage, there. It's deep.

The hatch on the other hand is super shallow. And, of course, no interior storage.

nyccarguy

kyfdx said:

tjc78 said:

@kyfdx said:

I have a frunk on my Cayman. It's surprisingly roomy

My EQE does not. There isn’t even a way to open the hood (at least obviously)

I think I could fit two pieces of carry on luggage, there. It's deep.

The hatch on the other hand is super shallow. And, of course, no interior storage.

No complaining about the Porsche

laurasdada

The battery in the A7 does compromise the hatch volume, it's a bit shallow.