Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

mjfloyd1

This would make BEV charging easier and more convenient but the cost must be astronomical

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46010218/wireless-ev-charging-roads-detroit/?source=nl&utm_source=nl_aut&utm_medium=email&date=120423&utm_campaign=nl33574480&user_email=aa8fb836422a392012af3c9116972e4ed85fd20fd898fd1602bc92f77eeabc60&GID=aa8fb836422a392012af3c9116972e4ed85fd20fd898fd1602bc92f77eeabc60&utm_term=TEST- NEW TEST - Sending List - AM 180D Clicks, NON AM 90D Opens, Both Subbed Last 30D

breld

Come to think of it, 3 of our 4 cars have frunks! The two EVs, as may be expected, plus the Corvette. I have yet to use the frunk for any practical use, other than maybe storing the included charger.

kyfdx

breld said:

Come to think of it, 3 of our 4 cars have frunks! The two EVs, as may be expected, plus the Corvette. I have yet to use the frunk for any practical use, other than maybe storing the included charger.

I've picked up groceries in mine, twice.

breld

C&D recently did a comparison review of the new Prius and Accord Hybrid. I found it a refreshing review highlighting how practical these vehicles are in an increasingly forgotten segment. Both test examples were very well equipped (I think the Accord was the top trim) with MSRPs starting with a "3."

I just looked at the Toyota website and hadn't realized you could get the Prius in AWD in all three trim levels. Very practical indeed.

corvette

The current Prius is quite compelling. Attractive styling. I am speculating that they hit the glass ceiling on MPGs, and eking out 2 more MPG on a car that already averages 50+ doesn't make a noticeable difference at the gas pump, so they decided to give the current model a little more oomph. I think it does 0-60 around 7 seconds.

benjaminh

https://fortune.com/2023/11/29/gm-stock-buyback-10-billion-electric-cars/

"GM announces record $10 billion stock buyback—more than it’s spending on UAW raises—as its electrification push stalls."

fintail

benjaminh said:

"Musk has said Tesla was likely to reach a production rate of roughly 250,000 Cybertrucks a year in 2025."

Cybertruck production for 2024 is estimated to be 75,000, although that might be optimistic.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-falls-long-wait-cybertruck-payoff-hefty-price-tag-2023-12-01/#:~:text=Musk has said Tesla was,Cybertrucks a year in 2025.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-reservations-2-million/

Tesla has 2 million reservations for the Cybertruck, and so if even a quarter of those follow through the production will easily sell out for the first few years.

Since Musk's projected numbers rarely pan out, my guess is that Cybertruck production will actually be more like 30,000 in 2024, maybe 100,000 in 2025, and then c. 150,000 in 2026. I feel like real world demand for the Cybertruck will peak at around 150k a year, and then decline after that. But we'll see. That's still a huge number of Cybertrucks, and by 2026 we'll probably be seeing them everywhere.

For comparison, Ford will sell about 700,000 F-series trucks in the US this year.

Wannabe cool tech/fintech bros piloting vehicles of that mass and power scares me as much as typical emotional support trucks and Stepfordian big SUVs.

fintail

tifighter said:

It’s 59 degrees here and raining at nearly 10pm. The atmospheric river strikes the PNW again…

It's going to be 50 in Spokane today. We had around 4" of snow on Friday.

benjaminh

Even as the current F-150 Lightning hasn't met sales goals for this year, work continues on Blue Oval City, a huge new Ford factory in Tennessee. Blue Oval City (pictured above) was projected several months ago to have an eventual production capacity for 500,000 of the next generation Ford EV trucks and SUVs.

Since Ford is having trouble selling 50,000 EV trucks this year, this does kind of boggle the mind. Recently Ford has cut $12 billion in EV spending, which will probably cut production down to 200k or so, but that's still a lot of electric trucks to sell.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/03/24/ford-to-build-next-electric-truck--project-t3--at-blueoval-city-.html

"The electric vehicle and battery manufacturing campus in West Tennessee begins production in 2025, and will be home to Ford’s second-generation electric truck, code named Project T3, and will be capable of producing 500,000 EV trucks a year at full production...."

The article from just a couple of months ago says that the T3 project is going ahead...

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/ford-teases-next-generation-electric-pickup-truck-dubbed-project-t3-aka-millennium-falcon-222235.html

"Although the Ford F-150 Lightning was only announced in 2021, and the first trucks were delivered last year, Ford has made no secret that it's already working on the next generation. Unlike the current F-150 Lightning, built on the same technical architecture as its ICE brother, Ford's second electric pickup truck will have its dedicated platform. This is in development with the goal to optimize production and make the next-generation Lightning a lot more efficient.

Following Tesla's model, Ford also started building an EV-exclusive factory for the upcoming pickup. The new manufacturing facility is located in West Tennessee, and Ford named it BlueOval City. When it will begin operations in 2025, it will be able to produce up to 500,000 electric trucks a year. The new factory is instrumental to Ford's EV program and key to its plans to revolutionize the pickup truck. Ford CEO Jim Farley explained that the BlueOval City aims to become "the modern-day equivalent of Henry Ford's Rouge factory."

Farley described the next-generation electric pickup as "like the Millennium Falcon – with a back porch attached," a nod to the Star Wars universe. Project T3, as it was named internally, is developed to change how we operate vehicles in the digital age. T3 comes from "Trust the Truck," a code name that stuck after the development team made it their rallying cry."

stickguy

Planning like this needs a lot of lead time. Would be silly to Abort the mission because it was slow coming out of the gate. Sounds like they are doing this for the next 10-20 years or more and staying the course.

It does seem like there is a tremendous amount of research happening in battery and motor technology so it makes sense to have a dedicated facility for all that. And likely that the options even 5 years down the road could be radically different than what we have today. Should be interesting.

kyfdx

stickguy said:

Planning like this needs a lot of lead time. Would be silly to Abort the mission because it was slow coming out of the gate. Sounds like they are doing this for the next 10-20 years or more and staying the course.

It does seem like there is a tremendous amount of research happening in battery and motor technology so it makes sense to have a dedicated facility for all that. And likely that the options even 5 years down the road could be radically different than what we have today. Should be interesting.

Plus, all of those factories are joint ventures. I think the one in KY is with LG

benjaminh

A 1-minute promo from Ford about their next generation electric truck, code named T3. This was released 8 months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFb_LM57Gko

benjaminh

Ford BEV sales last month (YOY change):
Ford Mustang Mach-E: 4,294 (up 21%)
Ford F-150 Lightning: 4,393 (up 113%)
Ford E-Transit: 271 (down 59%)
Total: 8,958 (up 43%) and 6.4% share

Ford BEV sales year-to-date (YOY change):
Ford Mustang Mach-E: 35,908 (up 4%)
Ford F-150 Lightning: 20,365 (up 54%)
Ford E-Transit: 6,187 (up 6%)
Total: 62,460 (up 16%) and 3.6% share

https://insideevs.com/news/699231/ford-us-ev-sales-november-2023/

My guess is that Ford is going to blow some of the Mach-E and Lightnings out the door in December with discounts, which might give them record EV sales for the month. Even so Ford's EV sales will probably be around 80k for 2023, compared to almost 700k for Tesla. The EV car wars have really only just begun.

breld

Good lesson in how quickly the market can change with supply returning to normal. As I mentioned previously, we bought my wife's Mach E just over one year ago, when it was extremely challenging to find anything on the lot and available, much less in the color and trim desired.

We chose our timing....poorly.

For the record though, we do love our EVs.

breld

Close to 60 degrees this week in Denver, so drove the Corvette to work today.

I noticed "my" Integra Type S is still listed on the dealership's website. They're probably not happy with me, but goes to show I didn't need to be the first out of the gate on that one.

nyccarguy

@breld said:
C&D recently did a comparison review of the new Prius and Accord Hybrid. I found it a refreshing review highlighting how practical these vehicles are in an increasingly forgotten segment. Both test examples were very well equipped (I think the Accord was the top trim) with MSRPs starting with a "3."

I just looked at the Toyota website and hadn't realized you could get the Prius in AWD in all three trim levels. Very practical indeed.

The Accord Hybrid is a sharp car

xwesx

benjaminh said:

Currently EV market share in the US is about 7%. Probably that will double in the next five years or so, mainly because of Tesla, but the future after that looks uncertain.

I think it easily would if charging infrastructure wasn't such a mess. People don't have "range anxiety" so much as "charge anxiety" anymore. Notice that the delivery businesses are all still on board with testing and deploying electrics, but even that is severely hampered, at least regionally, by the ability to install (and power) sufficient charging infrastructure at their warehousing / distribution properties.

stickguy

Solar panels on All those giant flat roofs!

xwesx

mjfloyd1 said:

This would make BEV charging easier and more convenient but the cost must be astronomical

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46010218/wireless-ev-charging-roads-detroit/?source=nl&utm_source=nl_aut&utm_medium=email&date=120423&utm_campaign=nl33574480&user_email=aa8fb836422a392012af3c9116972e4ed85fd20fd898fd1602bc92f77eeabc60&GID=aa8fb836422a392012af3c9116972e4ed85fd20fd898fd1602bc92f77eeabc60&utm_term=TEST- NEW TEST - Sending List - AM 180D Clicks, NON AM 90D Opens, Both Subbed Last 30D

While I can see this as convenient, wireless charging is quite inefficient compared to a direct plug connection, so I have to wonder how much this will eat into the idea of "green driving." It's one thing to take a 70% efficient power plant and transmit 100% of its output to battery storage, but if you're losing about 40% of that through the wireless charging, now ICE vehicles don't look nearly so bad.

oldfarmer50

stickguy said:

Farmer, good news. I guaranteed no snow this year!

went out and got a couple of gallons of the premium, non-ethanol gas at Stewarts, put some staybilt in the snow blower and added some fresh gas (tank seemed empty) and it fired right up. So I am ready for the storms, so of course they won't come.

Funny you mention that. I’ve been watching some of these weather gurus on YT and they figure there’s a Nino/Nina ocean pattern that’s going to send all the storms across the south and leave the north dry. The only danger for our area are those Nor’easter which might sweep up the coast.

The big hope is that the front will stay inland we’ll get on the warm side and NY will mainly get rain while Ohio gets the snow. 😄

oldfarmer50

roadburner said:

The Renegade is built on the same platform as the Fiat 500X. The 4WD is FWD based. It's even available in Trailhawk trim. I think it's not a bad subcompact SUV, but sales were never that great.

I considered that as a comparable to my Kia but the Kia was cheaper and the Fiat underpinnings had an even worse reputation for reliability.

benjaminh

I think one of the mistakes Ford made was to raise the price of the base model F-150 Lightning from $40k to $60k in one year. Raising the price 50% turned off a lot of people. They've now cut the price back to $50k, but in the meantime they punctured the magic of "why wait for $40k Cybertruck that'll never happen, when instead you can have a good electric Ford truck today." Ford had a big waiting list for the Lightning that they destroyed with several price increases. As one customer said:

"Top comment by Roger Kinney Liked by 30 people
I had a reservation and finally received email I could order right AFTER the first big price increase for the base truck. I canceled and moved on. At the end of the day it’s just a vehicle, and I’ll just keep driving my paid off ones."

https://electrek.co/2022/12/15/ford-f-150-lightning-price-increase/

Ford was losing money at $40k. But Tesla lost money on EVs for more than a decade before they made a profit. Ford should have built their customer base up from my pov, and just waited for battery costs and economies of scale to get the costs to fall. But they've now tarnished the image of the Lightning, and that's going to be a challenge to fix.

explorerx4

I think the production stoppages and stop sales killed the sales momentum for the Lightning and Mach E.

tjc78

@explorerx4 said:
I think the production stoppages and stop sales killed the sales momentum for the Lightning and Mach E.

I don’t think the dealer’s price gouging helped either.

explorerx4

@tjc78,
Price gouging didn't help either. There was some of that on the Lightning, not so much on the Mach E.

mjfloyd1

breld said:

Close to 60 degrees this week in Denver, so drove the Corvette to work today.

I noticed "my" Integra Type S is still listed on the dealership's website. They're probably not happy with me, but goes to show I didn't need to be the first out of the gate on that one.

Jorts, long white socks and white New Balance tennis shoes?

Please give us a heads up on trades. I don’t want any hurt feelings😎

explorerx4

Speaking of gouging, some dealer is selling the Challenger 170 at MSRP with among other things, a 100K lug nut security package.

nyccarguy

Anybody check out Pinal County (AZ) Sheriff Department on YouTube. Deputy Slope is great!

Sandman6472

So far, the A3 is not missed at all! She even mentioned that when we do take it to Orlando & St. Augustine, it'll be nice not having to visit Audi of Orlando for them to top off the oil & coolant like they usually do. Don't get me wrong, when it ran well, it was a really nice vehicle but those little issues began to become annoying. And when we just couldn't depend on it anymore, think the writing was on the wall. Now, could we have taken care of the latest issues for less money somewhere else, probably so. But think she was worn out with it all at this point...I know I was & it wasn't even my d d! She had it nine years which is a good run but it was time to cut it from the herd!

Now, as long as mine "behaves" itself, it'll be staying. I do want to go test drive the new Kona to get a feel for it but think I'll hold off till the hybrid model comes out. For my driving style, think it'll be the best model for me. And am liking the Buick Encore GX more & more to be honest! When I went to Delray Buick a year ago, never drove one as I thought it was too big but have been interested since I saw it in Hobe Sound when it first came out. The dark red one she drove Sunday was a nice color but didn't like the 4 year/50K warranty as much as the Hyundai's & Kia's plus would never want a black leather interior under any circumstance. And since Sunday was her day to look, decided to forgo me taking a test drive. So, will try them both, back to back, in time. I'll know when the time is right!

Insurance only went up about $40 or so till our renewal on February 13th. Turns out, our senior driving class expires very soon but she's already sent in the paperwork that we both just took it a week or so ago. It's every three years which isn't that bad. Anything to helplower the yearly bill is worth it to us.

benjaminh

The independent Toyota mechanic in the video below shows the complex process of replacing the battery on a 2008 Camry hybrid. Cost: $5800. The owner of the car, who has had it since new and has driven it less than 10k miles a year, saved about $400 a year in gas over a regular Camry. But then with this repair all of that savings was wiped out. Plus there's now a battery that has disposal and recycling issues. Original list price in 2008 was also $5k more than a regular Camry (I looked it up).

I would have ditched the car and bought a new one, but anyway it wasn't an economic advantage in this case to have a hybrid. A regular 2008 Camry obviously wouldn't need this repair, and with good maintenance and luck might still be running okay. Environmentally some greenhouse emissions were avoided, but now there's this dead battery to deal with.

According to MIT in this note from 2023, used EV batteries are difficult to recycle, the economics are tough, and toxic materials that shouldn't go into landfills remain a problem.

Anyway, I guess I'm trying to rationalize my ownership of a gas car, by seeing that the alternatives have issues too.

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-well-can-electric-vehicle-batteries-be-recycled

"An EV battery contains much more than just nickel and cobalt, however. It is an amalgamation of plastics, copper, aluminum, and other materials, some of which won’t be recovered completely because they aren’t valuable enough to be worth the trouble. The materials that are not recycled must be sent to a landfill or, if they are too hazardous, safely stored.

To be recycled, EV batteries must first be dismantled, which is no simple task because batteries are not standardized. The packs from a Tesla, BMW, and Nissan EV are different sizes, containing differently-shaped battery cells joined together by welds and other connections that must be broken down. This complexity makes the process more expensive and dangerous."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3VFeMWINCc

Sandman6472

This is the first vehicle she's ever owned without a trunk but doubt she'll even miss it. It came with a cover like mine and think she'll eventually tint the windows but not as dark as the A3 was. She's starting to love the push button start as her key fob never has to leave her purse! And though not as high as the newer CUV's, it's just enough for her right now.

benjaminh

nyccarguy said:

Anybody check out Pinal County (AZ) Sheriff Department on YouTube. Deputy Slope is great!

I haven't, but like amusing youtube channels. Would you be willing to post an example?

benjaminh

In addition to the credit of up to $7500 on new EVs, the IRA legislation also has subsidies for EV battery recycling. As a result, some facilities to do this are now under construction in Canada and the US. Currently almost all EV battery recycling is done in China, but this is about to change.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/dead-ev-batteries-turn-to-gold-with-us-incentives.html

oldfarmer50

benjaminh said:

In addition to the credit of up to $7500 on new EVs, the IRA legislation also has subsidies for EV battery recycling. As a result, some facilities to do this are now under construction in Canada and the US. Currently almost all EV battery recycling is done in China, but this is about to change.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/dead-ev-batteries-turn-to-gold-with-us-incentives.html

From that headline it sounds like the gold comes from mining the government.

venture

benjaminh said:

In addition to the credit of up to $7500 on new EVs, the IRA legislation also has subsidies for EV battery recycling. As a result, some facilities to do this are now under construction in Canada and the US. Currently almost all EV battery recycling is done in China, but this is about to change.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/dead-ev-batteries-turn-to-gold-with-us-incentives.html

au1994

benjaminh said:

The independent Toyota mechanic in the video below shows the complex process of replacing the battery on a 2008 Camry hybrid. Cost: $5800. The owner of the car, who has had it since new and has driven it less than 10k miles a year, saved about $400 a year in gas over a regular Camry. But then with this repair all of that savings was wiped out. Plus there's now a battery that has disposal and recycling issues. Original list price in 2008 was also $5k more than a regular Camry (I looked it up).

I would have ditched the car and bought a new one, but anyway it wasn't an economic advantage in this case to have a hybrid. A regular 2008 Camry obviously wouldn't need this repair, and with good maintenance and luck might still be running okay. Environmentally some greenhouse emissions were avoided, but now there's this dead battery to deal with.

According to MIT in this note from 2023, used EV batteries are difficult to recycle, the economics are tough, and toxic materials that shouldn't go into landfills remain a problem.

Anyway, I guess I'm trying to rationalize my ownership of a gas car, by seeing that the alternatives have issues too.

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-well-can-electric-vehicle-batteries-be-recycled

"An EV battery contains much more than just nickel and cobalt, however. It is an amalgamation of plastics, copper, aluminum, and other materials, some of which won’t be recovered completely because they aren’t valuable enough to be worth the trouble. The materials that are not recycled must be sent to a landfill or, if they are too hazardous, safely stored.

To be recycled, EV batteries must first be dismantled, which is no simple task because batteries are not standardized. The packs from a Tesla, BMW, and Nissan EV are different sizes, containing differently-shaped battery cells joined together by welds and other connections that must be broken down. This complexity makes the process more expensive and dangerous."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3VFeMWINCc

I do like the MPG benefits of my hybrid but I admit I do have some concerns on the materials used, the recyclability and the long term replacement costs. Not that a CCBA’er would have to worry about the latter.

Years ago I saw the supply chain involved in Prius batteries and it wasn’t pretty. Africa to China to Japan etc.

Would any of these keep me from getting another hybrid? Hard to say. I’m more after the deal on something I like rather than chasing MPG’s. They are just a nice benefit of driving a brick and still getting 30 MPG over the life of the Jeep. I take it on road trips so it’s lower than what others get.

There’s some nasty stuff that goes into these batteries no doubt. Is it better or worse than an ICE? That debate will rage on for a while and both sides will claim to have the absolute stone cold lock data to support their side much like the Return to Office debate that is going on now.

nyccarguy

@benjaminh - yes $5,800 is an expensive repair, but you can't say without certainty that a 15 year old car that you don't know the history of will need some kind of expensive repair. Even a gas Camry of the same vintage might need a new transmission, various suspension pieces...

xwesx

All points valid here!

My argument on hybrids is just that: You have the systems in both electric and ICE vehicles to maintain over the long run. Still, they have their place.

If we were all true environmentalists, we'd probably use mass transit, ride bicycles (with no motors), or walk everywhere we need to go. All of the time. Heck, even the environmentalists don't do that! When push comes to shove, it's all a matter of managing our resources, so we make the choices that seem like the right ones given the available parameters. /shrugs

jmonroe1

xwesx said:

All points valid here!

My argument on hybrids is just that: You have the systems in both electric and ICE vehicles to maintain over the long run. Still, they have their place.

If we were all true environmentalists, we'd probably use mass transit, ride bicycles (with no motors), or walk everywhere we need to go. All of the time. Heck, even the environmentalists don't do that! When push comes to shove, it's all a matter of managing our resources, so we make the choices that seem like the right ones given the available parameters. /shrugs

————————————————
Some folks wouldn’t make excuses for environmentalists like you have. Saying, you’re in or you’re out or there’s no such thing as being half pregnant.

jmonroe

Sandman6472

Ended up joining my health plan's Medicare Advantage Program. There were no down falls to speak of and we can go back to what we had if we're not 100% satisfied. And the monthly fee will fall to from what I gather. Need to really sit down & study it to see all the benefits. I first asked, "will I be better off in the long run by participating" as I just wanted a simple "yes" or "no". Tomorrow, the 7th, is the last day to enroll in these sort of plans until next October. First year we're trying it as I think it's the first year our health insurance is offering it.

stickguy

I thought there were rules about not being able to go back to traditional medicare once you went to plan C (advantage)? But can't say I ever analyzed the rules that close, since I have a few years yet before I become eligible!

explorerx4

You do have to get the carriers permission to exit the plan, not sure how difficult that is.
The conventional "wisdom" is to get a supplement plan if you can afford it.

stickguy

a medigap?

explorerx4

Yes, they fall under that description.

roadburner

I finally bought an extended warranty for the 4xe; a Mopar Max Care 8/75 with a $100 deductible for $1,755. I purchased it from Hayes Jeep in MI, and I think that's a good deal.

jmonroe1

explorerx4 said:

You do have to get the carriers permission to exit the plan, not sure how difficult that is.
The conventional "wisdom" is to get a supplement plan if you can afford it.

————————————————
Both of us have a supplement plan and we have never once had to pay a penny for anything. Yes, you pay a good bit more for a supplement plan compared to advantage plans that are free or practically free but if you have extensive hospital or doctors fees they are covered.

Pay now or pay later is what a few experts told us when it was time for us to make that decision. Neither of us were willing to roll the dice by getting a free advantage plan. So far, based on a few things that popped up, I know we made the right decision but like I said you pay every month without fail for it. Sorta like a lifetime unlimited mileage/unlimited years warranty with no deductible.

jmonroe

stickguy

I read some articles and watched a bunch of experts with Youtube channels to get an understanding of how it all works. My take, if you are generally real healthy and expect to stay that way, and don't plan to spend time away from home, you can do better with an advantage plan.

but if you travel a lot, or end up having a lot of medical issues, you are better off with traditional plan and a gap plan if you want to add that on.

jmonroe1

stickguy said:

I read some articles and watched a bunch of experts with Youtube channels to get an understanding of how it all works. My take, if you are generally real healthy and expect to stay that way, and don't plan to spend time away from home, you can do better with an advantage plan.

but if you travel a lot, or end up having a lot of medical issues, you are better off with traditional plan and a gap plan if you want to add that on.

————————————————
How can anyone who is healthy today expect to live out their lives like that? Those have to be the same folks who go to Vegas and say they always win.

I don’t think anywhere close to that.

jmonroe

au1994

Are there any SUV’s leasing well right now?

nyccarguy

au1994 said:

Are there any SUV’s leasing well right now?

Yes. Obviously depends on your budget. The outgoing Lexus GX has $3,500 in lease cash and is being advertised on LH for anywhere from 10 - 13% off pre-incentive. Lexus has a 27 month lease and you can give TFS MSD. Yes it is a complete pig when it comes to sucking down gas, is built on ancient architecture, & won't for on Sandy's side of the garage. Historically the GX holds its value well and you should be able to get out of the lease after a year free and clear. Lexus also offers a 7,500 mile option to keep the payment low-ish relative to the SUV's $60K+ sticker price.

Depending on your state's incentives, a Grand Cherokee 4Xe might be a good option. MDX inventory seems to be healthy as well as CX90.