Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous (Archived)

Michaell

corvette said:

I do have concerns that the early "Supercharger compatible" vehicles from other manufacturers will not work with those chargers as painlessly as Teslas.

I read an article about that - only the latest superchargers from Tesla (v3 or v4) will work with the non-Tesla models. Something like only 20-25% of all the chargers are at that level.

corvette

The newer "magic dock" ones have a built-in adapter. Supposedly, the older chargers may work with an adapter that the vehicle owner would have to supply. I suspect authentication/authorization refusal to charge issues may be more manifest on non-Tesla vehicles.

oldfarmer50

benjaminh said:

Vehicle sales in the US in millions...
2016 17.5
2017 17.1
2018 17.2
2019 17.0
2020 14.5
2021 14.9
2022 13.8
2023 15.5

https://www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/

It seems like production and sales for 2024 might be around 17 million again. If another 1.5 million vehicles hit the market this year compared to last year there should be continued downward pressure on prices.

Don’t forget the cars sold by rental companies which almost stopped during the pandemic. That’s an extra 1.5 million added to the mix.

benjaminh

Top 25 for sales in the US in 2023...

1. 751,789 Ford F-series
2. 543,319 Chevy Silverado
3. 444,926 Ram Pick-up
4. 434,943 Toyota RAV4
5. 385,900 Tesla Model Y
6. 361,457 Honda CR-V
7. 295,737 GMC Sierra
8. 290,549 Toyota Camry
9. 271,458 Nissan Rogue
10. 244,594 Jeep Grand Cherokee
11. 234,768 Toyota Tacoma
12. 232,700 Tesla Model 3
13. 232,370 Toyota Corolla
14. 212,701 Chevy Equinox
15. 209,624 Hyundai Tucson
16. 200,381 Honda Civic
17. 197,947 Honda Accord
18. 186,799 Ford Explorer
19. 169,543 Toyota Highlander
20. 161,814 Subaru Outback
21. 159,193 Subaru Crosstrek
22. 156,581 Jeep Wrangler
23. 153,808 Mazda CX-5
24. 152,566 Subaru Forester
25. 140,968 Ford Escape

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/

Sierra and Silverado combined = 839,000, and so GM actually outsells the F-series trucks, which is a bit of a surprise.

The model Y is only 50k behind the RAV4. Both will probably sell around half a million in 2024.

ab348

Strategically, the US makes need to do something to reduce their reliance on pickups. It is the only thing that makes them profitable, whereas companies like Toyota have a number of models in the top 25.

kyfdx

I'm amazed the Camry is still that high. It gets no love in our Forums

qbrozen

@kyfdx said:
I'm amazed the Camry is still that high. It gets no love in our Forums

Makes sense, though. Forums attract enthusiasts. Enthusiasts are not Camry owners.

qbrozen

@benjaminh said:
For 5 years, from 2015 to 2019, light vehicle sales in the US were around 17 million. During the pandemic and chip shortage did any vehicle factories get closed permanently? Maybe it happened, but if so I'm not remembering it at the moment. Probably capacity still exists for the non-Tesla factories to produce 17 million a year, but now Tesla can potentially add on top of that.

Back in 2019—the last 17 million year—Tesla only sold 195k vehicles in the US. Tesla's market share was about 1%. In 2023 Tesla sold about 670,000 vehicles in the US, for a share of about 5%. In 2024, with that huge new Tesla factory is Austin ramping up, Tesla will probably sell over 900,000 in the US.

Back in 2019 Tesla was still producing a relatively small number of vehicles, but this year they will probably sell 700,000 more than they did in 2019, and that's getting pretty big.

If Tesla has added that capacity, and others haven't cut factory capacity, what might happen? Now that the chip shortage and supply-chain issues seem to have passed, unemployment is low, and the stock market is up, could we go even past 17 million? Maybe. As stickguy says, there's still some pent-up demand.

Others are technically cutting capacity as they eliminate gas models from their lineups.

However, my guess is Tesla will, if it has not already, peak, maybe decline a bit, and level off.

kyfdx

qbrozen said:

@kyfdx said:

I'm amazed the Camry is still that high. It gets no love in our Forums

Makes sense, though. Forums attract enthusiasts. Enthusiasts are not Camry owners.

Not the lease forums, here.. lol

mjfloyd1

@benjaminh said:
For many years I wanted a BMW 3-series, and in many ways the Tesla Model 3 is better than the BMW 3-series, and so I did want to get a Model 3 or Y for a while. And now the Tesla Model 3 is a lot less expensive than a BMW 3-series. Just looked it up, and it seems like a BMW 3-series base model costs these days about $700 a month to lease, compared to about $450 for a base Tesla Model 3 (although that is with a big subsidy from the feds). I really like that EVs create less air pollution, but the range issue is still there for trips, made worse by the fact that Tesla stretches its numbers. The EPA testing cycle for EVs is clearly flawed, but from what I've read Tesla works it for advertising purposes to the max they can claim. I used to admire Elon Musk a lot, but in the last three years that feeling has to some degree evaporated. Still what he and others have built with Tesla is a towering achievement.

There's a chance that in the next few years Tesla will pass Honda in the US. And Honda is not without its problems. A small percentage of the 1.5 turbos like I own in my CR-V get gasket leaks, and there has also been oil dilution problems with the 1.5. No company is perfect. But it seems like the problems with EV batteries are even bigger than that. When EV batteries fail the cost isn't like a 5k gasket job, but sometimes a 20k-40k nightmare.

When my daughter had a CRV with the 1.5T, I found it incredibly loud and its performance uninspiring. Then she whacked a Cayenne and it’s gone😂 (thankfully everything buffed out on both vehicles)

Replacement CRV hybrid with the 2.0 is much quieter and quicker (but has the CVT )but she is happy and the gas mileage is about 5 mpg better. I got her the hybrid touring because it came with front parking sensors which seemed much cheaper than another parking lot incident.

nyccarguy

@kyfdx said:
I'm amazed the Camry is still that high. It gets no love in our Forums

I’m amazed Toyota Camry outsold the Honda Accord by almost 100,000 cars! The volume of RAV4s & CRVs is impressive too!

kyfdx

nyccarguy said:

@kyfdx said:

I'm amazed the Camry is still that high. It gets no love in our Forums

I’m amazed Toyota Camry outsold the Honda Accord by almost 100,000 cars! The volume of RAV4s & CRVs is impressive too!

Everyone is shopping for a CUV, it seems

nyccarguy

Anticipating a snow storm-ish. Had to get the Tacoma washed after driving on that unpaved road last week. It came out nice!

au1994

Surprises for me…I knew the Model Y sold well but not that well. Rogue at 9? Thats a shocker. A little surprised the Accord is that low.

benjaminh

Tesla and other EVs in the next few weeks will probably be allowed to go to "point of sale" for the federal 7500 rebate.

So the base $45k Model Y is going to be $37,500. Sales will likely go up as a result. The Freemont and Austin factories will be pouring out Ys in 2024, and so supplies should be plentiful. In fact, supplies will likely be so vast that Tesla will continue to discount off msrp for in-stock Ys to move the metal. We might even see a $35k model Y this year.

Tesla can still make a profit at that price, but no one else can. The grim economic reckoning for the non-Tesla EV makers will continue.

Someone down the street from us just got a Model Y. It's almost like the Y is the Model T of EVs—they are everywhere, and we're all going to see a lot more of them in the next few years.

breld

@benjaminh - I wouldn’t be too put off by the EPA vs real-world figures on the Tesla. Rarely do any of the EVs consistently meet their published figures. Real-world tests still seem to point to Tesla generally having the best range.

As @corvette suggested, it’s so easy these days to rent a Model 3 or Y for a few days, that’s the best way to really get a feel for whether you like the driving experience. Saying a 3 is “better” than a BMW 3-series is tough…they’re just so different in overall feel. But the Tesla does indeed have strong handling characteristics.

I think our Model Y is the third or fourth year of production? I haven’t noticed any sort of build quality issues. I do think they have sorted out those things that were so glaring early on.

And if you have a gas-powered vehicle in the fleet still, then that relieves most of the pressure for longer trips, though the supercharger network is Tesla’s best asset.

Not surprisingly, I’m finding that going with the EV that’s been out for 2-3 years is wise, as opposed to the new hot offering that has likely been rushed to market.

And again, leasing is the way to go on an EV…tax credits generally passed through, guaranteed residual, etc.

benjaminh

I'm happy with my 2018 Acura TLX 4-cylinder, which often gets almost 40 mpg on the highway. Knock on wood, but at the moment I'm hoping to go to 150k or more with the "silver streak," as I've nick-named the car. I love the way my car drives, the sound system, and even the slight scent of the Milano leather. My wife might consider getting a new vehicle in the next year or so, but for a variety of reasons we'll probably go for something other than a Tesla. She still loves her CR-V, even with the issues that it has. Just in the last few days we've gone back and forth between keeping it and trading it in.

sda

Lucky me, an appointment that was made 6 weeks ago to service the Q5 at the dealer, meant a 30 minute drive in the pouring rain. It was coming down in buckets. For the first time I felt the rear of the vehicle twitch slightly as I ran thru some thick water on the interstate. I was in the right lane going about 60 and vehicles were flying by in the left lane. The Audi service experience was professional and efficient. They provide a video to review what was checked or replaced. Oil/filter change, tires rotated. Everything checked out fine, even the battery which I think is original to the car. They have gone up in the service pricing. An oil change is $60 more since the last service about 6 months ago. Even with some discounts applied it was $250 total. In the showroom they had a very nice A5 that would fit nicely in my garage.

ab348

nyccarguy said:

Anticipating a snow storm-ish. Had to get the Tacoma washed after driving on that unpaved road last week. It came out nice!

Shrewd move by the car wash to spread rock salt at the exit, good way to create return business!

carnaught

@kyfdx: ”Everyone is shopping for a CUV, it seems.”

Speaking of that, I have a punch to report, a new workhorse/grocery getter. The Elantra sailed off into the sunset and was replaced this last week with a 2024 Honda HR-V EX-L, pearl white over a (fairly rare) light gray leather interior. Guaranteed, I will not win any stoplight races but it is a solid and a reasonable value during these times.

BTW, @corvette , I will take 39 for my total punch pick for ‘24.

corvette

kyfdx said:

I'm amazed the Camry is still that high. It gets no love in our Forums

It's not my favorite, either. It's competent, but the ride quality in the popular SE model is firm without managing to be sporty.

tjc78

I had a recent Camry as a rental. Nothing stood out good or bad. If I needed an easy to keep vehicle for a long daily commute it would work.

nyccarguy

@tjc78 said:
I had a recent Camry as a rental. Nothing stood out good or bad. If I needed an easy to keep vehicle for a long daily commute it would work.

I kinda dig the styling. I’d rock one!

au1994

nyccarguy said:

@tjc78 said:

I had a recent Camry as a rental. Nothing stood out good or bad. If I needed an easy to keep vehicle for a long daily commute it would work.

I kinda dig the styling. I’d rock one!

There is a new one up the street and as much as it pains me to say, its nice looking in a non-descript kind of way.

benjaminh

The 2025 Camry coming out in a few months is going all hybrid. The base LE will have 232-horsepower (which probably means 0-60 in about 7 seconds), will get around 50 mpg, and should be about $31k. It looks almost good, at least in LE/XLE forms. Push-button start and blind-spot monitoring are also standard.


According to Toyota, this generation will be at least somewhat fun to drive:

"The Camry also has a retuned suspension for enhanced responsiveness and agile handling which adds a sense of thrill when taking on those twisting and turning roads. The sport grades have a specific sport-tuned suspension with increased comfort, while still providing even greater stability, handling, and confidence behind the wheel."

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-unveils-the-powerful-and-purely-hybrid-next-generation-camry/

stickguy

they might be right, since everything I have read about the new Prius mentions it is much nicer to drive now.

28firefighter

I’m betting 37 for this year. No intentions of a punch here but we all know my word on this means nothing.

benjaminh

stickguy said:

they might be right, since everything I have read about the new Prius mentions it is much nicer to drive now.

It seems like Toyota got weary of often being called less fun to drive when compared with Honda and some others. Toyota seems to want to change that. Since they are already the most reliable brand, adding some fun to the drive might help them grow compared to Honda and others. But the main problem for Toyota is that they already can't make enough vehicles relative to demand. Maybe with overtime they can start to catch up in 2024?

benjaminh

Many vehicles these days have stop start tech, which saves a bit when it comes to fuel and exhaust. In this half-hour video the car care nut describes how it works in detail. It's more complex than I thought it would be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTBN8Ic57Gg

ab348

stickguy said:

they might be right, since everything I have read about the new Prius mentions it is much nicer to drive now.

A week or two ago I saw something that said just the opposite - that despite being faster than the previous model, this new one was a worse driving experience in every other way. Now I'll have to dig up where I saw that.

corvette

I could totally see replacing the Volt with a leased Model Y or 3 once I get closer to having the Maverick paid off, if the incentives and pricing for the Tesla are similar to how they are now. I might decide I don’t need the Maverick anymore!

nyccarguy

Im not sure what made me look this up, but a GLI is priced very similar to a Camry. Not a bad car for a low $30K MSRP.

Even a GTI S comes nicely equipped

corvette

Really liked my GLI. At the time, the GLI had some lower grade interior materials compared to the GTI, but it may be different now.

ab348

nyccarguy said:

Im not sure what made me look this up, but a GLI is priced very similar to a Camry. Not a bad car for a low $30K MSRP.

Even a GTI S comes nicely equipped

Funny that you mention the GLI. I watched a review of it last week and they were quite positive towards it. They like the changes made for the latest model.

Michaell

I test drove a GLI about the same time as @breld picked up one of his many GTI's - I think the one that @kyfdx now drives.

I agree about the quality of the interior materials of the two models.

kyfdx

My GTI is perfect. Even the clutch

Sandman6472

Even my Golf is behaving since getting the tranny cable fixed. The new 2024 Hyundai Kona is still the #1 pick for it's replacement but not running out so quick to pull the trigger. Since I'm still dealing with my health issues, getting something new has been pushed down in importance now. If I do decide to retire again, then the point will become moot as I'll keep the Golf as long a possible. Taking on a monthly payment will not be prudent without my work money coming in. The kids all think the time has come to hand in my driving gloves while the other half wants me to continue a bit longer but think she just wants me out of the house on those days. So I'm caught in the middle right now deciding what to do as I love the gig still after 11 years but the vertigo coming almost daily now makes me think the time has definitely come.

28firefighter

My sister has a ‘22 GLI. She loves it.

sda

This morning during my Sunday stroll of car lots, the VW dealer has a very nice white GTI SE 6 speed 4dr with 39k, VW certified. Got me thinking, since my wife likes GTIs, perhaps trade the Passat?? When I got home I looked it up online, $26k! New, it listed for $31k and I bet it went for less. It is 5 model years old! A fun thought quickly dashed.

jmonroe1

sda said:

This morning during my Sunday stroll of car lots, the VW dealer has a very nice white GTI SE 6 speed 4dr with 39k, VW certified. Got me thinking, since my wife likes GTIs, perhaps trade the Passat?? When I got home I looked it up online, $26k! New, it listed for $31k and I bet it went for less. It is 5 model years old! A fun thought quickly dashed.

————————————————
Sounds like the dealer is saying, “I know what i got”.

jmonroe

au1994

sda said:

This morning during my Sunday stroll of car lots, the VW dealer has a very nice white GTI SE 6 speed 4dr with 39k, VW certified. Got me thinking, since my wife likes GTIs, perhaps trade the Passat?? When I got home I looked it up online, $26k! New, it listed for $31k and I bet it went for less. It is 5 model years old! A fun thought quickly dashed.

Give it just a little more time. Dealers are stuck with some stuff they overpaid for and are hoping for a sucker to come along and help them out.

mjfloyd1

Sandman6472 said:

Even my Golf is behaving since getting the tranny cable fixed. The new 2024 Hyundai Kona is still the #1 pick for it's replacement but not running out so quick to pull the trigger. Since I'm still dealing with my health issues, getting something new has been pushed down in importance now. If I do decide to retire again, then the point will become moot as I'll keep the Golf as long a possible. Taking on a monthly payment will not be prudent without my work money coming in. The kids all think the time has come to hand in my driving gloves while the other half wants me to continue a bit longer but think she just wants me out of the house on those days. So I'm caught in the middle right now deciding what to do as I love the gig still after 11 years but the vertigo coming almost daily now makes me think the time has definitely come.

That would be very unsafe to drive while you are feeling like everything is spinning around you. Hopefully the vertigo clears for you.

pensfan83

@au1994 said:
Give it just a little more time. Dealers are stuck with some stuff they overpaid for and are hoping for a sucker to come along and help them out.

They've been priced like that for the better part of a year though. And this one just popped up around a week ago in my Autotrader list so people must still be paying.

https://www.deanhonda.com/auto/used-2019-volkswagen-golf-gti-se-pittsburgh-pa/85279288/

stickguy

well, all reports are that auction values (and trade in, carvana, etc.) have come down, and inventories are up. But as always, the absolute last thing to come down will be dealer asking prices.

stickguy

pensfan83 said:

@au1994 said:

Give it just a little more time. Dealers are stuck with some stuff they overpaid for and are hoping for a sucker to come along and help them out.

They've been priced like that for the better part of a year though. And this one just popped up around a week ago in my Autotrader list so people must still be paying.

https://www.deanhonda.com/auto/used-2019-volkswagen-golf-gti-se-pittsburgh-pa/85279288/

love that car. But unfortunate that it is black. And of course would be much nicer with the checked cloth interior. and the price is silly. And I still get the willies looking at those rubber band tires.

OK, maybe I like that car, not love it....

explorerx4

They really went out of their way to clean it up for sale.

nyccarguy

@pensfan83 said:

@au1994 said:
Give it just a little more time. Dealers are stuck with some stuff they overpaid for and are hoping for a sucker to come along and help them out.

They've been priced like that for the better part of a year though. And this one just popped up around a week ago in my Autotrader list so people must still be paying.

https://www.deanhonda.com/auto/used-2019-volkswagen-golf-gti-se-pittsburgh-pa/85279288/

So a brand new GTI S DSG at $33,190 seems like a good deal.

nyccarguy

The local Acura Dealer has this https://www.acuraofstamford.com/used-inventory/index.htm?make=Subaru 2022 WRX Limited in that gross orange color listed for $32,500. Across the street, the Subaru dealer (same owners) has a brand new https://www.stamfordsubaru.com/new/Subaru/2023-Subaru-WRX-stamford-176adea90a0e0a943b89ecfd2339976a.htm 2023 Base WrX for $32K…

jmonroe1

nyccarguy said:

@pensfan83 said:

@au1994 said:

Give it just a little more time. Dealers are stuck with some stuff they overpaid for and are hoping for a sucker to come along and help them out.

They've been priced like that for the better part of a year though. And this one just popped up around a week ago in my Autotrader list so people must still be paying.

https://www.deanhonda.com/auto/used-2019-volkswagen-golf-gti-se-pittsburgh-pa/85279288/

So a brand new GTI S DSG at $33,190 doesn’t seems like a good deal.

————————————————
I think you said that wrong.

jmonroe

nyccarguy

@jmonroe1 said:
————————————————
I think you said that wrong.

jmonroe

Fixed! Thank-you. Posting and cooking shouldn’t be permitted!