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The Future Of The Manual Transmission

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  • cdnpinheadcdnpinhead Member Posts: 5,618
    Mazda publicly stated. . .that they are developing diesel engines for the U.S. market.

    This is good news indeed. Honda/Acura recently left me in the lurch when they rescinded their decision to bring a diesel TSX to North America, so perhaps Mazda will take up the slack. Plus which, Mazda still holds up their end where manual transmissions are concerned.

    BMW has elected to bring only the biggest possible diesel to the U.S., and Audi has brought nothing so far. Maybe Mazda will come through for us, with a manual diesel of a "proper" size -- that'd be somewhere between 2 and 3 litres, capable of 40+ mpg all day long.
    '08 Acura TSX, '17 Subaru Forester
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    I think manuals will be pretty much forced out over the next 5 years or so as companies continue to shift toward more electronics to meet increasing EPA and CAFE requirements. Unfortunately, the computers shift more efficiently than humans. If you want a stick shift you probably need to get one on the next few years.
  • shiposhipo Member Posts: 9,148
    While you may be correct, I personally doubt that manuals will become extinct anywhere near that soon. Why? Because I believe that diesel engines will ultimately prove out to be the future of the U.S. auto market, and you don't need a computer to shift for you to get the most out of a diesel engine.

    Best regards,
    Shipo
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    My main concern on diesels is whether they still have starting problems due to fuel gelling in cold weather. Of course, I also wonder if Hybrids and their batteries have noticeably poorer performance in cold weather? I've been in a Passat diesel and frankly I couldn't tell by driving, nor did it have the semi truck stench. Since diesels are so popular around the world now, and given the similarities with jet fuel, I also wonder if growing popularity in the US will cause the price to spike negating the economy advantages? One of the things that has held down conventional gas prices in the US is because Europe has gone so heavily into diesel lately that conventional gas supply has increased around the globe.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    Yes, The diesel's torque is the one issue most gasser drivers are usually only indirectly aware. The key is really trying to balance the variables/issues mentioned in other posts. Right now one of the best ways to manage the torque and fuel mileage is with the 6 speed manual/turbo diesel combination.

    VW 2009 Jetta TDI has the so called DSG (direct shift gearbox) It is still a "clutch pack" system, managed by computers to masquerade as a "slush box", so it can be called an "automatic". Its EPA ratings suggest DSG gets 1 mpg (across the range) less mpg than the 6 speed manual option. DSG 29/40/33 vs 6 M 30/41/34.
  • dudleyrdudleyr Member Posts: 3,469
    A computer may shift faster than a human, but it can't shift better. No way a computer can see the curve ahead and downshift just beforehand. Nor can it see the stoplight a few hundred yards ahead and slide into neutral.

    A manual is proactive an automatic is reactive.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    You're right, but those things don't affect the EPA measurements. Car companies will have to build to regs and ignore realities like this. We're entering a new era of social engineering!
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    The DSG is interesting in that when you see the curve ahead and decide to downshift just before hand,...., you can. Conversely, you can also do the whole upshift routine, or ...not

    Also the DSG was never designed to "see the stoplight a few hundred yards ahead and slide into neutral.".. However, it does go to a "no fuel draw situation" when stopped in D AND also when going down longer grades in gear (D).

    So the DSG can definitely be both proactive AND reactive.
  • morin2morin2 Member Posts: 399
    Mazda has had small diesels in the US market before. I remember that when I bought my first new truck - a 1982 Mazda B2000, you could get it in diesel for $100 or $200 more. I picked the gas model for its better (!) acceleration at Ted Britt Mazda of Fairfax VA in 1982: "Buy any new Mazda pickup for $5795".
  • shiposhipo Member Posts: 9,148
    While there may well be a spike in diesel fuel prices if diesel engined cars finally catch hold here in the States, I suspect that it won't be all that severe (especially in light of the extra economy that diesel provides), and that it will further our ability to reduce our dependency on foreign oil.. Why? Because diesel fuel (as well as jet fuel and fuel oil) is so easy to manufacture in quantity from the likes of micro-algae that once slightly higher diesel prices take hold, it will be cost justifiable to start the process of building facilities to gradually switch the U.S. fuel system over to non-petroleum based fuels. I truly believe that within 20 years there will be very little petroleum based fuel sold here in the States. Bring on the diesels!

    Best regards,
    Shipo
  • xwesxxwesx Member Posts: 17,681
    Let's see, coming from Fairbanks, Alaska....

    1. Hybrid performance in cold weather? Well, a Prius averaging 50 mpg during the warm six months of the year averages about 35 mpg during the cold six months. I have not heard or seen any evidence that the battery life is shortened in cold weather, but it may be too early to tell for sure.

    The fuel efficiency of any vehicle goes down in cold weather both as a result of increased idling (to heat the interior of the vehicle) and resistance in moving parts (transmission, wheel bearings, differentials, etc). So, minimized idling and better lubricants has the greatest impact on improved winter fuel economy. The Prius, unmodified, gets an average of 30% less economy in the cold months, but conventional vehicles tend to lose 25% economy in the winter here, so a hybrid does not take all that greater of a hit and it still tends to get better economy than its conventional cousin on any given day.

    2. Fuel gelling in diesels. This is only a problem if #2 diesel is used and is untreated. #1 diesel is the fuel to use in cold weather operation. The Indiana Soybean Alliance, in concert with Purdue University, recently developed a biodiesel process whose product was successfully cold weather tested in Alaska. In other words, plan for it and a diesel can operate in any temperature you care to tolerate. ;)

    That is my $0.02 from the beautiful, warm, sunny north. :shades:
    2018 Subaru Crosstrek, 2014 Audi Q7 TDI, 2013 Subaru Forester, 2013 Ford F250 Lariat D, 1976 Ford F250, 1969 Chevrolet C20, 1969 Ford Econoline 100
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    They so totally overspec the diesels currently sold that I kind of wonder if it doesn't detract from the fun of having the stick.

    236 lb-ft of torque for a 3200-pound Jetta? Available at 2000 rpm? Puh-leeze! It doesn't matter what gear that car is in - why not just have two gears total and call it a day?

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    I am actually still on the fence (6700 miles) about the way extra torque. (155# vs 236 # ft or 52.3% greater).

    As a comparison, the older TDI gets a range of 44 to 62 mpg and the 2009 so far has a range of between 39-45 mpg. You really FEEL the power there on tap ALL the time. vs having to work the gears and torque curve with the older one. It is funny for the max torque comes on at the same rpm ranges.
  • stickguystickguy Member Posts: 53,344
    Shipo beat me to my favorite point. Petro based fules (gasoline) just happen to be what was readily available 100 years ago when the whole auto age started. But that doesn't mean that the fuel of choice for the next 100 has to come from crude oil.

    And my rudimentary understanding of the chemical engineering possibilities (near and dear to my heart, as my son starts as a chem eng major in the fall!) is that bio (and other alt fules) are much easier to do in a deisel application. Jeez, if you can run a deisel on strained fry oil, damn near anything should work!

    THe basic technology is there. and as seen by the recent spike in crude prices, the financial incentive (which can certainly be manipulated by the government) should be there too.

    As to hybrids, at least most of them ont need much in the way of the battery pack. You could run a Prius jujst on the gas engine, right?

    2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.

  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    You could run a Prius jujst on the gas engine, right?

    You COULD, but that's a 110 hp engine lugging a 3400-pound car around. Not much fun to be had in that. Of course, what power there is would be put to much better use if only it had a manual transmission! :shades:

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • dudleyrdudleyr Member Posts: 3,469
    I have always wondered what a Prius would be like with an MT and no batteries. The car would have less hp but the MT and lighter weight would make up for that. It would cost a lot less as well. MPG would go down in the city, but probably up on the highway.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Since we're being honest...what will each automaker do to meet future CAFE standards?

    tongue firmly in cheek

    GM/Ford/What's left of Chrysler:
    Each will search for loopholes that allows them to produce giant trucks with GVWR that exempts them from CAFE entirely, then they'll sell a few European-made Fiestas and Fiats that actually meet the standards.

    Honda/Toyota:
    Will offer 37 different hybrid models. Each.

    Subaru:
    Will eventually, sadly, sell out and offer Asymmetrical FWD.

    Mitsubishi:
    Soon enough they will only sell the EVO and just the EVO, and they'll be loved by critics but sell just 15 cars a month. They (and Suzuki) will be so small they will be exempt from CAFE anyway.

    BMW/Mercedes/VW:
    Will offer excellent clean diesels that cost $15,000 more than their gas equivalents and few will buy. They will fail to meet CAFE because they will never de-content their diesel models enough to be cost-competitive.

    Hyundai/Kia:
    They can simply lower prices on their small models and increase the prices on the Genesis. Heck, just pay the fines and don't even bother to meet new CAFE standards, people will pay extra for the Genesis anyway.

    Audi:
    Having gone from quattro to Fronttrak, soon they will offer Halftrak (c), which is one wheel drive, the other 2 wheels just trailing along for the ride.

    Nissan:
    Cube and a new-generation Wagon R eventually arrive and allow them to continue to sell a now more efficient 200Z. Yes, 200.

    Rolls Royce:
    They'll launch a hybrid version of their sedans that get 9mpg instead of 8mpg. They will also just bribe lawmakers to avoid CAFE penalties.

    Volvo:
    Will invent a new material called Safe-Lite that, incredibly, does nothing but continues the facade that they build the safest cars, which CAFE lawmakers will drive, so a new loophole will be invented for them.

    :D

    You guys got any more? This could be fun....
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."BMW/Mercedes/VW:
    Will offer excellent clean diesels that cost $15,000 more than their gas equivalents and few will buy. They will fail to meet CAFE because they will never de-content their diesel models enough to be cost-competitive."...

    Of the three, VW's 2009 50 state TDI offering is app 1,100 more than the gas equivalent. This is more down stream but VW/IRS offers the TDI 09 MY $1,300 in tax CREDITS. The mathematics indicates a minus - $200 cheaper than gas equivalent. Another downstream issue is the TDI is app $3,900 better on the aftermarket. Currently both the BMW/MB only offer conventional and seemingly well designed (mating to the turbo diesel) 6 speed AUTOMATIC slush box.

    VW as before mentioned, offers the "automatic" 6 speed manual (DSG- direct shift gear box) and the "manual" 6 speed manual. :surprise: The technology does not make this a play on words. The computer taks the place of the clutch pedal
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    "$200 cheaper than gas equivalent"

    But that's exactly what I was joking about - they force you in to getting options that you may not want, and don't have to get in a gas model.

    The Rabbit used to start at $14995 and that was retail price, imagine with some haggling. Let's see an affordable Rabbit TDI for $18 grand or less.

    To get a Jetta TDI, you're spending, what, mid 20s?

    Yeah, I know, the Jetta starts at $17k, but still.

    My beef with VW (and BMW for that matter) is that the diesel is sold as a premium model (price and feature content), when it could be economical instead.
  • xwesxxwesx Member Posts: 17,681
    Juice, that was darn funny.

    Although, for Subaru, I think they will sell out and begin selling models with "symmetrical FWD." Imagine.... The beauty of FWD. :shades:
    2018 Subaru Crosstrek, 2014 Audi Q7 TDI, 2013 Subaru Forester, 2013 Ford F250 Lariat D, 1976 Ford F250, 1969 Chevrolet C20, 1969 Ford Econoline 100
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Thanks, I was hoping for laughs.

    I think the tagline would actually be "The Ugly of FWD" though. ;)
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    This response might be off topic, but given the 2008/2009 economic conditions, huge excess vehicle inventories, taxpayer bail outs of the American gasser production companies, etc,etc,. you fault VW for not being stupid? ;) For actually making a profit? :) For actually offering a viable 6 speed manual transmission option?

    US MY gasser sales went from the "good" years of 16-17 M to (if they are lucky) 9.6 M? :confuse: - 40%.9.6 M units being some record historical low? VW targeted 25% diesel sales and it is probably a good guess they will sell the whole 25% or 62,500 units.

    I also notice you probably come at this from the Brazilian perspective, so if there are any un explained cultural chasms, I apologize in advance.

    There is another dynamic even us US consumers are probably not aware. The over all compact car segment is app 25% of the passenger vehicle fleet (read that in passing) . So as you can see, it is a minority position. I was also surprised to read the average age of the typical Honda new car owner is 44 years old. So again why would VW make cars (and in the volumes) that most (in the US market) would not WANT to buy, let alone AFFORD? Isn't that one of the dynamics that got us to this VAST HUGE over supply of inventory in the first place?

    In other words, they understand their demographics. Since you are in a foreign country, you get probably many more VW models as well as other models we in the US market would not have a clue about.

    So for example, I have heard about the VW Polo, 60 mpg. It makes my 50 mpg Jetta TDI look like a fuel guzzler !!! Certainly makes the 25-40 mpg Honda Civic A fuel guzzler.
  • morin2morin2 Member Posts: 399
    I think atexeira is in MD, as am I. Whether living in MD is a foreign perspective is an excellent question.

    I seriously considered the Jetta tdi wagon - but could not find one "de-contented" enough for me. Given VW's history with sunroof motors and power windows, unnecessarily expensive keys (that you can't take in a kayak), etc., I just couldn't do it - I'd worry constantly about when the power features would fail. I didn't have the same worry about buying a subaru outback - but I did avoid a sunroof, just to be safe.

    I think the tdi is great and would love to have one. But I am part of the market that VW no longer caters to - the old "basic Bug" "keep-it-simple" customer. I've had lots of basic vw's that were a lot of fun - even a 50 hp 1991 diesel Jetta bought new that could barely make headway in a strong headwind with the AC turned off. Companies evolve and sometimes lose loyal customers along the way as a result of their corporate decisions even as they prosper with a new clientele. As much as I wish it was not so, its probably the right corporate decision to ignore customers like me because their profit per "unloaded" or de-contented vehicle might be lower.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."I think atexeira is in MD, as am I. Whether living in MD is a foreign perspective is an excellent question."...

    Data (I assume he has control over) lists location as: ..." Retife PE, Brazil"...

    Having once lived in MD,... I would concur.

    It is always interesting that the NE is probably one of the biggest customers for heating oil, which is burned 24/7 in winter for up to 6 months of the year and can be from 3000 to 5,000 ppm sulfur with NO/NADA emissions mitigation and at the same time vilify TDI's which use ULSD at 15 ppm and less and is mitigated to the nines. Of course in most cases TDI's are not used 24/7 for 6 months at a time.

    As for de-contented, I would also concur. For example it is hard to have sunroof problems if you... have no sun roof, etc,.

    Civic's hardly meet the decontented definition for up to 27k per.
  • morin2morin2 Member Posts: 399
    yup - I'm pretty sure that was an Edmunds forum prank - perhaps he'll tell us why he did it.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    So if he is an MD'er, then no cross cultural chasms.

    It will be interesting from 2011 (2010 models are probably "in the can so to speak already) on which oem's go the "decontented route" now that they got the new Obama reign's marching orders (2016 35.5 mpg standards) (aka HIGHER COSTS)

    They have already confirmed the cost for "smaller" cars will go up significantly. This of course was one reason why I mentioned that 2009 will problem seem like the good ole days in terms of pricing. Presumably less folks (volume and percentage) will buy the old profit cows: pick ups and SUV's. So since all signs point to smaller cars... It would be a DUH to rule out small cars as the new "profit cow! Of course the price of gas will go up, plus higher taxation and other green fees. (didnt know car buyers will be into golf eh?)
  • xwesxxwesx Member Posts: 17,681
    It is always interesting that the NE is probably one of the biggest customers for heating oil, which is burned 24/7 in winter for up to 6 months of the year

    Diesels were vilified way back when they were noisy, stunk, and belched black smoke. People are slow to change their minds, though I think that has little to do with where they live.

    As for heating oil consumption, it should come as little surprise that any place with generally old housing, large populations, and cold winters will consume larger quantities of heating fuel. After building my house here in Alaska, with energy efficiency and winter comfort as a prime concern throughout the process, I am appalled when I look at houses in NW Pennsylvania. In the distant to very recent past, they just were not built with energy efficiency in mind.

    Granted, the winters are VERY mild there compared to interior Alaska, but with comparable construction as my house (which is not on the top of the heap by any stretch of the imagination), these houses could easily use a mere fraction of the energy to heat and cool them to comfortable temperatures. And, I am not Joe Builder. I am just a crazy guy who decided to build his own house, but build it well (because my family has to live there!).

    Back to manual transmissions.... how do diesel engines and manual transmission correlate? Are a higher percentage of diesels manual? I know that does not hold true for pickups these days. I bet a manual diesel is among the rarest of the rare, if they are even made any longer.
    2018 Subaru Crosstrek, 2014 Audi Q7 TDI, 2013 Subaru Forester, 2013 Ford F250 Lariat D, 1976 Ford F250, 1969 Chevrolet C20, 1969 Ford Econoline 100
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."how do diesel engines and manual transmission correlate? Are a higher percentage of diesels manual?"...

    Actually in many ways.

    Of the less than 2% of the passenger vehicle fleet that is diesel, I would guess there are more diesels mated to manuals (% wise) than percentage wise manuals mated to gassers in the 98% of gasser passenger vehicle fleet. The sheer vol of gassers mated to manuals of course is probably very obvious.

    Nippononly in msg # 5338 jokingly ( my .02 cent take anyway) made a reference. Since you mentioned PU trucks, to me a "mid sized diesel " whatever that can mean (not the BIG one's they use in the 250/2500 and 3 series) and a 6 speed manual is the absolute no brainer. "killer application" so to speak. A distant but far more likely combination will be the mid sized diesel engine mated to a 6/7 speed automatic designed FOR that sized motor. (325-650 # ft of torque)

    Here is one of the practical ways. So for the VW Jetta TDI 236 # ft of torque (max torque) comes on at a relatively low 1,750 rpms. To keep the (turbo) boost ON, 2,250 rpms. Much beyond 3,700-3800 rpms does not add much, even as the red line is @ 5100 rpms. . So a manual (correctly geared of course) matches the situation, terrain and engine speeds much better. It is usually also more durable and certainly far cheaper to repair than DSG and/or automatic. Since the TDI's are drive by wire, lifting off of the gas "pedal" going down a long grade say 7%, creates a no fuel draw condition. One down hill benefit is increased mpg, predictably.

    Another way, I just love how the the turbo (boost) lets the diesel keep pulling at altitude, say from 3000 feet to 7500 feet. A simple downshift can help to more quickly regain momentum, if you lose it or bleed it off for whatever reasons.
  • xwesxxwesx Member Posts: 17,681
    Since you mentioned PU trucks, to me a "mid sized diesel " whatever that can mean (not the BIG one's they use in the 250/2500 and 3 series) and a 6 speed manual is the absolute no brainer. "killer application" so to speak. A distant but far more likely combination will be the mid sized diesel engine mated to a 6/7 speed automatic designed FOR that sized motor. (325-650 # ft of torque)

    Very true. I was thinking about the heavy duty pickups, such as 3/4 and 1-ton series, simply because those are the trucks that currently have a diesel engine offering. I had briefly considered buying a newer pickup to replace my old '69 as a work truck, but I do not like the idea of having to settle for an auto in a pickup.

    However, a diesel in a mid-size (such as Nissan Frontier, Toyota Tacoma sized pickups) is an obvious choice. The "crewcab" versions of these pickups is an incredibly versatile automobile, especially for a "single vehicle" family of four or less. Increasing the economy and practicality of it would likely serve to dramatically increase the segment.
    2018 Subaru Crosstrek, 2014 Audi Q7 TDI, 2013 Subaru Forester, 2013 Ford F250 Lariat D, 1976 Ford F250, 1969 Chevrolet C20, 1969 Ford Econoline 100
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    I have always wondered what a Prius would be like with an MT and no batteries.

    Well, it would be a slightly heavier Matrix with a Yaris engine. Rated 29/36 in the 2300-pound Yaris, I am guessing at 25/32 in the non-hybrid Prius, unless they gear it to be suuuuuper slow to save gas. :-P

    Now of course, the 2010 Prius soon to appear at your local dealer has the 1.8L from the Corolla, so for 2010 you would be up to 130 hp, but you would have an extra 200 pounds to haul around.....

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    That diesel will replace the darling of the greenies, the hybrid, in our future? Are people placing the future of the manual on the US accepting diesels like Europe did? With GM facing BK on Monday they may or may not be a player in the issue. Chrysler may or may not be sold to Fiat for next to nothing. If not it will be disassembled. So Toyota, read hybrid, Honda, hybrid again will be the big dogs on the block? And we believe the Feds that have agreed to a deal with anti diesel Arnold will embrace a fleet of diesels?

    This I have to see. But then who would have thought everything would come crashing down as quickly as it did.

    I could see myself buying a Diesel truck or SUV to tow something with but I am pulling for a EV city car that has zero emissions. I wonder if french fri mobiles will cause fast food to go up in price? :confuse: ;)
  • andys120andys120 Member Posts: 23,670
    Jeez, if you can run a deisel on strained fry oil, damn near anything should work!

    According to what I've read, Dr. Rudolf Diesel had vegetable oil in mind as the principal fuel for his compression-ignition motor.

    2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'm from Brazil but mostly list my old hometown because we used to get those cool little flags next to our names (not any more).

    I've lived in MD for decades, though.

    You really think VW is doing well? Making profits? You sure?

    Last I heard they were bleeding red ink like crazy and Porsche keeps buying up more and more share (you'd think it would be the other way around).

    My post was tongue-in-cheek, mostly, but I do think that VW would have far greater success with diesels if they actually tried to make them more affordable. I'd much rather have a Rabbit TDI than the 2.5l gasser but the extra content on the diesel pretty much takes it out of economy car price territory.

    I guess I just don't like the diesel=premium strategy they follow. Diesels should be more economy-minded, IMHO.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."I guess I just don't like the diesel=premium strategy they follow. Diesels should be more economy-minded"...

    Well the same could be said about the declining % of stick shift "manuals". They not only are cheaper to buy, they offer among other things, better mpg "economy".

    Folks do vote with their "check" books. So if one doesn't "actually buy "them, why then the surprise, that for some reason they don't get MADE (to be bought) ?
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    To some extent, yes.

    Remember, though, that often they're just not widely available, so some people settle for an automatic they didn't necessarily want.

    I guess you could say the same for an affordable diesel - we won't know what demand could have been for an under-$20k diesel because none are availble.

    Just looked - $22k for a base Jetta TDI, I guess that's not too bad. With the credit that's actually pretty close. Still, if they can build a Rabbit for $14995 I think they can do better (lower price of entry) on the TDI, and offset it with economies of scale.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    I would say to a MAJORITY extent. Just because you ignore it doesn't make your argument valid. Now I would agree that might be your OPINION. However it is not an opinion supported by the facts/data. You can name any oem, any model and dig up the statistics on whether there are more manuals or automatics (percentage, volume... your choice) . Automatics rule the majority.

    We are seeing the result of that strategy in the Big 4 OEMS and their "offsets with economies of scale". Have you ignored msg #5348 ? ;) HUGE inventories of gassers of every stripe for sale......... Even the Japanese oem's are in hurt status. This is not to say that VW is "UN" affected. Even they forcast decreased revenues and profits.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I hear you loud and clear, I just don't agree.

    You said " they understand their demographics" but do they, really?

    Tiguan sales are incredibly disappointing, less than half what they forecast. An insignificant also-ran in a super-hot segment.

    Yet I bet they couldn't build enough sub-$20k diesels to meet demand.

    I guess I've had a beef with VW ever since egomaniac Piech took over, and even after he left (though I'd argue he stills pulls the strings with his board seat). The guy goes after Mercedes with the Phaeton and then tells VWoA to market the Golf IV for 7-8 years after it came out. By the time I saw my first GTI Mk V in person it was already stale. Ridiculous.

    The problem with VW's upscale march is that they completely neglected the low-end of the price spectrum, in more ways than one.

    I disagree with your Big 4 OEMS argument because think about it - Chrysler got to a point where they didn't even build a truly sub-compact car, no coupe or sedan at even up to the compact segment.

    They don't have subcompacts sitting on the lots unsold because they don't sell subcompacts at all. The Caliber isn't really that small.

    Credit where credit is due - the Golf VI is arriving on schedule, and they have the right powertrains, just make the diesel available to more buyers. How 'bout putting a TDI in that Tiguan instead of in the Audi Q5? I bet that rings up $40 grand with options.

    Another lost opportunity.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    My references to VW are in the US market diesels/manuals. It was never an endorsement of the way the total company is/was run. Truth be told, I would not have a VW gasser !! In addition, IF I was in the market for a diesel SUV, the V6 TDI Touareg 2 sets the bar ever higher with 25 mpg.

    It is hard to fault a company that is making billions; while almost all the others are LOSING multi billions and some companies even threaten to take the global monetary system with it.

    Sure VW could do it ANY number of ways, but as one that is NOT on the board of directors, that is for the board of directors to decide,etc, etc.

    ..."Yet I bet they couldn't build enough sub-$20k diesels to meet demand."...

    (My .02 cents) Strictly from the sidelines with no insider or industry information, your quote remains to be seen in 2010 (increased units). As I have have posted in the past VW is well on its way to "delivering / fulfilling" on its stated goal of 2009 25% of its total production (US) or app 62,500 units being diesel. So from say 4% diesel in 2003 (9,000 units), they have more than demonstrated they can back what they assert UP.

    VW has done a number of things:

    Here are two:

    1. I have read in passing VW 2010 production with 40% being diesel
    2. build a Chattannoga, TN plant to build the "Passat" line.

    So if you thought for example 2009 diesel production should have been 40% of total production vs 25%, so be it. You or I were simply not in the chairs to regulate it, order it, or demand its execution.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    You hinted at it but I'll say it - the V10 Touareg had limited sales potential from the get-go. What did those cost, I don't even remember, but it wasn't even on my radar at that price.

    The V6 diesel would have made much more sense, and may have actually done some reasonable volume.

    Is VW really profitable right now? I didn't know that. I thought they were losing money, are you sure?

    More diesels are good, but I just hope they don't price themselves out of reach for a lot of buyers.

    I don't think the percentages could have been much higher prior to the newer clean diesel that meets CARB standards. You can't sell 40% diesels when they aren't for sale in big markets like Cali and New York.

    Now that they do meet CARB standards, the potential is there. I just hope VW doesn't build only high-end models to sell.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    OK, this is what I was thinking of, but it looks like it's Porsche, not VW, that had the cash flow problem:

    http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=148949
  • whoosierdaddywhoosierdaddy Member Posts: 76
    My local VW dealers always have a few base-base Rabbits and Jettas with manual tranny, 2.5L gas. Just few color choices.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    I am guess and indeed hoping the 2.5L engine is doing better than the 2.0 L of old. As you might guess, I do not keep up as much with the VW gasser side.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."Just over 80 percent of 1968 Corvettes were equipped with four-speed manual transmission" ...

    link title

    Edmunds.com article 2006, "65 percent of new Corvettes" do not have manual transmissions.

    link title
  • lilengineerboylilengineerboy Member Posts: 4,116
    Edmunds.com article 2006, "65 percent of new Corvettes" are driven by bald old men that bought it to show off to their trophy wife and can't drive stick.

    :P

    I haven't seen one at an autocross yet that wasn't equipped with a manual transmission. Not a C5 or newer anyway. The '84-93(?) are up for grabs, but I think those are basically at the bottom of the depreciation curve now anyway.

    Boulevarders can get whatever they want. I just appreciate that they keep a manual transmission for enthusiasts.
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    ..."As a result, Porsche anticipates that 70 to 80 percent of 911 owners will opt for the auto box, especially in the early going."...

    link title

    This almost sounds like a lead in, but only by coincidence....

    ..."It's the same story with the venerable Chevy Corvette. As its automatic transmissions become better and faster, more customers take the plunge. Two of every three Corvette coupe buyers choose the six-speed paddle-shifted automatic. For the convertible, 75 percent choose the clutch-free version."...

    ..."Harlan Charles, Corvette product manager, notes that the ultra-high-performance Z06 and ZR1 models don’t offer an automatic at all. And the ‘Vette purist still demands a stick. “For the Corvette, there will always be sufficient demand, so the manual is here to stay,” Charles said."...

    link title
  • boaz47boaz47 Member Posts: 2,747
    "..."Harlan Charles, Corvette product manager, notes that the ultra-high-performance Z06 and ZR1 models don’t offer an automatic at all. And the ‘Vette purist still demands a stick. “For the Corvette, there will always be sufficient demand, so the manual is here to stay,” Charles said."...

    Doesn't that assume there is A: always a GM and B: that the government doesn't own GM? I don't think if President B.O. had much to say about it there would be a bunch of HP corvettes being made by a GM owned by the government. And if they are allowed to go bankrupt will someone pick up Corvette? Let alone Mr. Charles?

    I believe we are about to see regulations that are not only aimed at better fuel mileage being mandated by the government but also cleaner vehicles and that will put anything other than EV and Hybrids under a microscope. I am not sure diesels will come through it as well as hybrids. But I also know they want to control every part of the emissions question. And like it or not the manual driver is just one more thing that they can't control. Short of adjusting the rev-limiters to the point were there is no over shifting allowed ever manuals will always be slightly less green than automatics. They don't have to be if driven properly but people simply would rather not drive them that way.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    "driven properly"???

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    I would say no to your point's A & B.& your unmarked C. I'd say yes to unmarked point D. Point E... I don't know.

    Has anything been announced to the 2016 35.5 mpg standard? The majority of American cars are truly late to the party. I have had a 48-52 mpg vehicle (50 state legal at the time) for 118,000 miles and 6/7 MY's. 2016 would make that 13 years continually exceeding the 35.5 mpg standard. The 50 state legal and higher torque 2009 Jetta TDI maual puts down 39-45 mpg numbers. That is 7 years early !!! The Corvette could probably use a touring edition twin turbo V-8 diesel engine with a 6/7 speed manual transmission. Something along those lines could do 45 mpg on RACE day and 60-70 mpg @ 65 mph !!! I say: what is not to like?
  • explorerx4explorerx4 Member Posts: 20,723
    big caveat 'at the time'.
    2024 Ford F-150 STX, 2023 Ford Explorer ST, 91 Mustang GT vert
  • ruking1ruking1 Member Posts: 19,826
    Essentially my take:

    1. the prices of American cars will go up far INXS of year to year inflation. Essentially "better mpg environmental concerns are the stated reasons.

    2. Historically a manual transmission was cheaper than an automatic. In coming years, stick shifts will command a huge premium.

    3. all in all you will get less reliable, capable and much more expensive cars that will last even shorter periods. They will be more expensive to operate

    4. the sad part: it in no way has to be that way, i.e., GREATER than 35.5 mpg cars existed in a previous post example since 2003 or by 2016 13 years before......
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