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Subaru's fortunes sinking - can they turn it around?

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  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    You can get a moonroof in the WRX Limited and the STI Limited. No NAV yet, just get a Garmin c series like mine, works like a charm for 1/5th the price.

    Saw the 07s at NY:

    07 Tribeca SE: just a new chrome grille that I don't care for and memory seats, plus the iPod input. New color too. So pretty much just added options to the 07. I prefer the base grille, which is the same as last year with black inserts. Oh, the rearview camera is also new. We could not get inside to see all that.

    So a mild update that addresses the most common complaints (esp. the rear cam).

    Threats to the Tribeca? CX9 is closest in size and probably price. XL7 may overlap a little, but it's Equinox based, a mistake IMO, though the engine is all Suzuki, and 250hp too. The Hyundai Sante Fe is close in size as well. Saturn Outlook was closed up, but seems bigger, more Ford Freestyle sized.

    RAV4, Outlander, CX7, and RDX all seem smaller and likely will not overlap much.

    I predict sales will be flat. The updates will just barely offset the added competition. They'll sell 35k or so.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    A great stategy IMO. Two models with the same powertrain but appealing to very distinct buyers.

    It will sell to the more mature buyer that thought the STI was too flashy. And by deleting two wings and the BBS rims, they got costs down enough that the leather and moonroof may come in at the same price as the base STI. Smart.

    Brilliant idea.

    Still low volumes, only 800 and only 2 colors, but they will sell out quicker than the 06 spec.B did.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I loved this one, it was my favorite, Bob's too.

    The car is now a lot more "complete", not much missing since they added VDC, a Torsen, a 6 speed, memory seats, and nicer interior/exterior color schemes.

    Plus now it's a full model so they'll sell a heck of a lot more than the 500 they did last year.

    It's a no-excuses sports sedan so I predict it will sell well even though it's well beyond the $30k barrier Subaru has struggled to break. It's a legit alternative to some $45k cars. R&T's review put it in 2nd, and 1st when price was factored, and these additions would probably bump it up to the top stop.

    So basically no new cars, but 3 refreshes that should help them out. Interestingly all 3 are beyond $30k. Let's see what they do to the higher-volume models for 07.

    -juice
  • dino001dino001 Member Posts: 6,191
    The only problem with IIHS is the Gold Award is for Impreza 2.5i, not WRX (WRX has no active head restraints, which is virtually a condition for "Good" rating in rear impact. IIHS website states clearly "except WRX".

    2018 430i Gran Coupe

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    A CNNMoney article went as far as mentioning, and I quote:

    Results for the Impreza do not include the performance-oriented WRX version or the closely related Saab 9-2X Aero. Because of their propensity to be involved in more crashes and in more severe crashes, the Institute does not give "Top Safety Pick" ratings to performance-oriented cars regardless of how well they perform in crash tests, said Lund.

    Though I'm not sure if that's correct. I think the head rests are the real reason for the asterisk.

    That's just silly - WRX has better brakes and tires for at least 3 of the seasons. It would be safer in most situations.

    -juice
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    The IIHS is an industry group. While I respect the work they do, I think people need to remember they have a stake in the results of these tests. They are not strictly consumer advocates.

    Sure, forcing the manufacturers to build safer cars will lower the number of times they have to pay out for claims involving death or injury. So, that's good for them, as well as for us consumers.

    However, they also have a vested interest in making cars fail these tests. A failing vehicle gives them the evidence they need to charge higher premiums. So, they will always be raising the bar and finding ways to make their best ratings nearly impossible to achieve... whether it makes the car safer or not.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    They do have an agenda, I guess...

    They probably like to show the wrecks to scare people into driving safely. :surprise:

    Coming outright against sports cars is a bit extreme, though.

    -juice
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    I have no problem with them warning folks that sports cars have a higher rate of accidents. I just think they should report that separately. That is a factor based on the types of drivers in the demographic. It has nothing to do with the intrinsic safety of the car.

    Most people will assume their crash safety ratings are based on crash tests, not the way some yahoo will drive the car. Combining them is misleading.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    The opposite is true for Buicks. Grandpa babies it so they appear to be safer (and more reliable).

    -juice
  • prosaprosa Member Posts: 280
    A CNNMoney article went as far as mentioning, and I quote:
    Results for the Impreza do not include the performance-oriented WRX version or the closely related Saab 9-2X Aero. Because of their propensity to be involved in more crashes and in more severe crashes, the Institute does not give "Top Safety Pick" ratings to performance-oriented cars regardless of how well they perform in crash tests, said Lund.

    Maybe so, but it's worth noting that the IIHS's side impact test, which seems to get more attention and have more real-world relevance than the frontal test, attempts to emulate the sort of intersection crash that can - and quite surely often does - occur even to very careful drivers.
  • orangelebaronorangelebaron Member Posts: 435
    Subaru still plan on a hybrid convertible??? How about diesel Subarus in the USA...THAT would be a smart move, once clean diesel gets here later this year.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I wish.

    The B9 Scrambler, later displayed as the B9SC, was just a concept. We probably would have heard of plans by now.

    The powertrain was a 2.0l turbo + hybrid, basically an EJ20 engine with an in-line electric booster that coupled up between the engine and trans. Very compact, but perhaps too long for the relatively short wheelbases Subaru tends to use.

    Either that or they found it too costly to produce. With Miata and Solistice near $20k, Subaru could not have even come close to that price, I bet $30k plus would have been more like it.

    Not only that, but also they've shown other hybrid concepts since then, namely the TPH powertrain, or Turbo Parallel Hybrid, on the B5-TPH concept 3 door. That would seem to imply that the powertrain had evolved.

    Yet another reason - the Toyota partnership began after both of those concepts were out. So HSD is more likely than either of those hybrid systems.

    Kind of a bummer, but they can add HSD for a fraction of the cost of engineering their own hybrid system from scratch. The trick will be coupling it to Subaru's boxer engines and AWD system, both present packaging challenges since Toyota is used to FWD with transverse engines (even the RX400H is based on a FWD RX, not AWD).

    Pigs will fly before the B9SC is produced, sadly.

    Diesel is for europe, so we won't see that for at the very least another 3 years. Maybe more.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    http://blogs.edmunds.com/Straightline/.ee91054

    Top models will target the VW GTI and Audi A3, as Subaru continues to move up-market.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I think that would be a big mistake. It was for VW, so why follow them down that road?

    VW is openly admitting the GTI/Jetta costs too much to build, and the next one will be brought forward just so that they can cut some costs.

    Now Subaru wants to copy them?

    Dumb idea.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I think Subaru wants to move into that market niche—not necessarily copy VW and Audi.

    The problem with VW and Audi is they don't make especially reliable products, and haven't for some time—and most people know that. I think if Subaru can continue to build cars like they have, but offer the refinement of a GTI or A3, they will succeed.

    I would love for my WRX to have that kind of refinement. If it had the level of refinement, and was "contented" like a Legacy GT, it would be perfect IMO.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I dunno, I guess it all goes back to that "Premium" thing again. That's not where I want to see them go.

    I'm sure the pressure is coming from FHI, but they have to decide if they want higher volume or higher prices. I don't think they can get both.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    The big reason Toyota does so well is because of their gold-standard reputation for building trouble-free products, and many of their products aren't cheap either. VW and Audi are the polar opposite of that—and that's a big problem for them. Subaru, like Toyota, has a big advantage over VW and Audi in that respect. That can only help them.

    It's not so much a question of volume vs. price, but more an issue of making a profit.

    Bob
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    Luckily, what VW and Audi have is similar to what Subaru has - loyal customers.

    Yes sales have dropped off in the past few years but there are plenty of hard core VW/Audi owners. The driving dynamics is what keeps them coming back.
  • au1994au1994 Member Posts: 3,707
    I would not like to see Subaru move up market as a whole. I think they run the risk of alienating the traditional customer base and scare off potential new customers like myself.

    I would not be interested in a 30k Forester. If I was, I'd look at an A3.

    2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Limited Velvet Red over Wicker Beige
    2024 Audi Q5 Premium Plus Daytona Gray over Beige
    2017 BMW X1 Jet Black over Mocha

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    With the new Impreza due next year, and the Forester due the year after that, I fear that they are simply aiming too high on the price scale.

    If the WRX grows that much, i.e. same wheelbase as the Legacy, then they would overlap too much. And a new Legacy is a few years off. They would be each other's most direct competitor.

    Similary, an "upscale" Forester would overlap too much with the Tribeca.

    Notice that the Toyota models in short demand are the Prius and a few Scion models, none over $25k.

    -juice
  • au1994au1994 Member Posts: 3,707
    and I'd bet that 25k is the sweet spot for the overwhelming majority of consumers. That's right in mid size sedan and small SUV territory. You'd think Subaru would be aiming for that demographic rather than running away from it.

    Their competitive pricing and bang for the buck is one of the things that attacted me to the make. That and not seeing yourself at every stoplight in town.

    2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Limited Velvet Red over Wicker Beige
    2024 Audi Q5 Premium Plus Daytona Gray over Beige
    2017 BMW X1 Jet Black over Mocha

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    All I'll say is this - look how hot the RAV4 is, sales up over 100% compared to the last model. Follow that model, maybe even a pair with SWB and LWB lengths.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I don't think that will happen. The Legacy will still be longer and more luxurious.

    I think the next Impreza will match (or be close to) the current Legacy for content, but will always be the more sporting of the two. Also, as the Impreza adds content, so will the Legacy, so there will always be a gap between the two.

    Here's how I see it unfolding:

    MY 2007: New Impreza, new Forester, facelifted Legacy and Outback. That's four models, two all new and two updated, all in the same model year. So I see little overlap between the models as they transition upmarket.

    We talked about this somewhat on our trip the NY auto show. My feeling is if they pay more attention to NVH with the new Impreza, that will go a long way towards addressing the the noise issue. It's almost a sure thing that the Impreza will get the 5EAT and a 6-speed, as that's been a consistant rumor all along. I'm sure the interior will "feel" more upscale in terms of materials and look. If it's using the Legacy chassis, that means probably the multi-link rear suspension as well. Combine that all together and you're close to (or above) a current Legacy.

    Let the Legacy and Outback keep some of the foo-foo luxury items like power seats, memory seats, dual climate control, 4-position seat heaters, etc. That sort of frosting I don't think the Impreza needs, but the Legacy does.

    The Impreza does need more power outlets though, and lit visor mirrors would be nice.

    Bob
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Hehe, one of the reviewers in the Fit thread commented that that model was much quieter inside than the Impreza he has had for a couple of years...The Fit is a model that is already four years old, and stickers for 4-5 thousand dollars less than Impreza.

    And how about a stereo for Impreza that isn't totally ticky-tacky? Auto-up windows?

    If you read between the lines of the info on the next-gen WRX, you can see the $27K base price that is coming. At that price, even if they make it competitive in every way with the GTI (which I don't believe is within Subaru's capability - Soobs may run more reliably than most anything else on the road, but NOBODY tops VW short of the major luxury manufacturers in terms of interiors and driving refinement, certainly not Subaru), sales are going to drop way off from the current model. Despite years of talking about it and building better and better cars, Subaru still faces the hurdle that a great many buyers simply won't consider a $30K Subaru.

    Look at the cash incentives on the Outback now - $2000??? This model is only 18 months old, right? What will they be a year from now, $3000? And then on up from there? Heck, this is almost May - the part of the year when car sales are actually the best. What will they be doing next winter?

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Well, the entire powertrain of the Fit sits in front of the passenger cabin, there's no drive shaft or axle in the rear to add to the noise.

    Any how, Subies tend to be quiet, actually, for instance the Forester has been the quietest in every comparison test I've seen that included dB readings.

    The problem I foresee is that Subaru won't have an entry level car at all. They already start at higher prices, with the Impreza 2.5i costing a bit more than its rivals. Growing the wheelbase 6" and adding tons of content won't make it any cheaper.

    Funny thing is that I *do* think the Forester should grow, but I do not think the Impreza should.

    Maybe the R2 were sold here I'd feel different. Even then, the R2 is so much smaller than the Impreza, they'd still have a huge gap in the lineup.

    The Fit is positively HUGE next to the R2.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Yeah, they're addicted, not unlike most other makes right now.

    But if you look at transaction prices, they're still much higher than they were for the last generation. For instance, we got our '02 Legacy wagon for $17,827, you can't even come close to that today.

    Just checked, they have one sedan for $20k, but the wagon runs about a grand higher. So that's more than $3 grand more than we paid not too long ago.

    Even factoring in the added content, I'd say their profit margin on that particular car is higher.

    When Toyota starts building Camrys at the SIA plant, probably on the line where Isuzu used to build Rodeos, that'll take the pressure off of Subaru and incentives will go flat.

    There's a big shake-up going on in SoA right now. Fred Adcock left, went to Nissan but for a smaller role there, so my guess is they fired him. Our pal Sam Ingram of the E-Business group also left, that was a bummer.

    -juice
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    Maybe the R2 were sold here I'd feel different. Even then, the R2 is so much smaller than the Impreza, they'd still have a huge gap in the lineup.

    See the "stella" over on nabisco. Can't find a reference to it anywhere else, though. Looks like a Pleo replacement, so bigger than R2. Unfortunately, it doesn't even have as much character as the R2, let alone the R1. I can see them bring something that size here, but it's sooo boring I think it'd flop.
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    "Look at the cash incentives on the Outback now - $2000??? This model is only 18 months old, right?" - Nippon

    Holy cow. See, that's a problem. I mean, it's not like the Outback is a niche model in the Subaru line-up. I wouldn't flinch if I saw figures like that for the Legacy sedan or an older model, but the Outback is their bread and butter.

    "The problem I foresee is that Subaru won't have an entry level car at all." - Juice

    Holding back, but... can't... not... post...

    I don't think Subaru can ever be competitive in the entry level market until they built a car where AWD is an option. It adds costs which might be better spent (don't laugh) on CD players, or airbags, or chrome widgets, or ground skirts, or an alternate interior color. It takes up space, which is already at a premium (pardon apparent contradiction) in small cars. And it also cuts into fuel economy.

    AWD has plenty of advantages, but I'm not sure they're things that entry level buyers are after.

    "But if you look at transaction prices, they're still much higher than they were for the last generation. For instance, we got our '02 Legacy wagon for $17,827, you can't even come close to that today." - Juice

    Are you taking inflation and price creep into account? I mean, just about every car goes up in price from generation to generation. We even see small price increases when absolutely nothing of substance changes from year to year.
  • erics6erics6 Member Posts: 684
    I don't think Subaru can ever be competitive in the entry level market until they built a car where AWD is an option. It adds costs which might be better spent (don't laugh) on CD players, or airbags, or chrome widgets, or ground skirts, or an alternate interior color. It takes up space, which is already at a premium (pardon apparent contradiction) in small cars. And it also cuts into fuel economy.

    How about a rebaged Suzuki SX4? Subaru sold the Swift in other markets. The new Swift and the SX4 look like nice cars. Of course, the SX4 may not be much less then an Imprezza.
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    That's not a bad idea. Suzuki builds capable small cars. IIRC, the SX4 has a selectable AWD system which allows FWD-only mode for improved fuel economy. That switch doesn't eliminate the weight or packaging issues, but it's a good start.

    Only problem is that Suzuki might want to sell it here.
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    I believe Subaru will be rebadging Toyota's Yaris for sale in Europe. I'd be surprised if that vehicle will offer AWD. A Yaris hatch with Subie engine & AWD would be at the top of my list of commuter cars if it could come in under $17k or so, nicely equipped.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    If you look at 4 cylinder Accords, they come in cheaper than similar Legacys. I think price is about where it should be today.

    For instance, Browns Honda is a no-haggle dealer in the same region as Fitz Subaru, and their Accord VPs start at $17,132. Subaru doesn't sell de-contented models like that, so the LX-SE is probably closer to a base Legacy, and those start at $18,660.

    So a Legacy sedan runs about $1300 higher and adds AWD, which is worth about (drumroll please) ... $1300.

    If anything, the Honda is bigger and should cost more. Any how, the Legacy's real-world prices are about where they should be, the size of the rebate is not significant to me, nor is the MSRP.

    The cheapest Outback they have runs $21.5k. They're not losing money at those prices. That's $4400 more than the cheapest Accord.

    The mid-size segment is brutal. Look at the incentives Hyundai has on the Sonata. You can get V6 models in the $17s. Subaru would push you in to the mid 20s for the H6.

    Changing topics, remember that Suzuki is GM and Subaru just broke off from them. Plus the SX4 overlaps too much with the Outback Sport. They go after the same buyer.

    Yaris' platform would be OK if and only if they got rid of that absolutely silly gauge pod.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    AWD has plenty of advantages, but I'm not sure they're things that entry level buyers are after

    I have to agree with this.

    the earth stops rotating for a moment... ;)

    This is the biggest challenge for Subaru. In this class AWD adds about 10% to the cost of a car, a segment that is very price sensitive, and where fuel economy is among the top reasons people downsize in the first place.

    This is also why Subaru doesn't often sell de-contented models, i.e. they simply choose not to compete at the entry level of each segment.

    I think they'll need to come up with a unique solution. Perhaps a through-the-road AWD system where the engine runs the front axle and a hybrid electric motor power the rear axle, something clever like that. With a hybrid, you can charge a premium (which Subaru has to do) and still compete.

    -juice
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    "This is also why Subaru doesn't often sell de-contented models, i.e. they simply choose not to compete at the entry level of each segment."

    I disagree.

    (The earth resume rotation...)

    Extra features are relatively inexpensive to include in the car, yet they have a high value on the sales floor. They often have a higher profit margin than the car itself (%wise).

    That's one reason why hybrids are almost always loaded. The lose money on the costly drivetrain, but try to make up for it by including lots of features.

    So, I would expect that Subaru doesn't sell stripped models because the profit margins don't give them much of a price cushion.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    If/when they do offer a small car, I think it'll be a hybrid of some sort.

    HSD, though, works with the engine and motor in parallel, so that won't lend itself easily to a through-the-road AWD system. Therein lies the rub.

    Another teething issue is how to get HSD to work with a boxer engine - that is going to be one loooong powertrain. Imagine the front overhang on that one.

    The B9SC had an elegant solution, the electric motor was sandwiched between the engine and trans, and very compact. Let's see what they end up producing.

    -juice
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    "The B9SC had an elegant solution, the electric motor was sandwiched between the engine and trans, and very compact. Let's see what they end up producing."

    That's the same basic design as the Honda hybrids. I dunno how Toyota would take to that notion.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    OK, I hope someone cares because it took me an hour to find photos of both.

    Any how, compare the B9SC's compact design to Toyota's. Subaru did a great job with packaging. Something like this will be essential to get a Subaru hybrid to market, given the short wheelbases they have.

    -juice
  • rockyleerockylee Member Posts: 14,017
    It's not looking good. The only nice ride is the Legacy with the high performance engine with the red leather seats. ;)

    Rocky
  • rockyleerockylee Member Posts: 14,017
    The Spec. B is the only interesting one of the bunch. ;)

    Rocky
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    That's the spec.B, and they only made 500 of those for MY06. They sold out so fast they're long gone by now.

    Next year those seats will be black and blue.

    FWIW, the Legacy isn't their best seller by a long shot. Outback, and recently Forester, are at the top, and Tribeca is 3rd. Legacy is only 4th in popularity.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    One of the most interesting ones, for sure. What about the STI, though? Especially the 07 STI Limited.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Obviously you haven't driven any new Subarus in order to make a ill-informed statement like that.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I think he said that slightly tongue-in-cheek. ;)

    -juice
  • zman3zman3 Member Posts: 857
    That's the spec.B, and they only made 500 of those for MY06. They sold out so fast they're long gone by now.

    Not really. There are 4 for sale within 50 miles of my house. That may not seem like a lot, but with only 500 built, that doesn't make it look like they're moving very well in my area. I have heard of others buying for under invoice.

    Not that it isn't a good car. I personally don't know since I haven't driven one. But they don't seem too difficult to obtain.

    Karl
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    MN, eh? Snow much? :shades:

    I bet the Outback sells better there.

    -juice
  • zman3zman3 Member Posts: 857
    Actually the snow isn't that bad. I think we average 50 some inches a year. It's the cold weather that sucks so badly.

    Outbacks are far more popular than any other Legacy model here. I do see quite a few WRX's though.

    Karl
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    This is why the Outback has the AWP (all-weather package) standard. Heated seats that warm up well before you have heat, heated mirrors to melt off the ice and keep them clear in the rain, and wiper de-icers so you don't have to get out and scrape.

    spec.B has those too, but the base Legacy doesn't.

    -juice
  • zman3zman3 Member Posts: 857
    Before I decided on the 3.0R OB wagon I debated getting a base Legacy. At that time I was considering a 2.5 Outback. The one thing that kept me out of a base Legacy is that I HAD to have the cold weather package after having it on my 98 Outback.

    It ended up being a pretty expensive option in the end. :blush:
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    says almost everything tongue-in-cheek! :-)

    A local dealer has been putting ads in the Friday CAR section every week for months, plastering the paper with huge discounts off Outbacks. Today he's at $4750 off MSRP (including the Subaru $2000 rebate) on all Outback 2.5i's in stock (currently 18 of them, according to the ad). And this week he added something new - free vouchers for family barbecue dinners if you buy this weekend!

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • heel2toeheel2toe Member Posts: 149
    Rocky has lamented that Motor Trend should have chosen the Chevrolet Cobalt as the 2006 Car of the Year, too.
This discussion has been closed.