Subaru's fortunes sinking - can they turn it around?

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Comments

  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Not clean enough. California mandates 100K miles of emissions performance without intervention by the consumer (plus a 150K-mile emissions performance warranty), which no-one can manage yet with respect to diesels and particulate emissions. Put a trap in there, and it gets clogged. Use urea injection as many companies are planning on doing, and it needs refilling.

    BTW, I believe we already have low-sulfur diesel in California. I know we have had low-sulfur gas for quite some time now, and it's only going to be mandated in the rest of the states at the end of this year.

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Toyota was probably hoping for the same type of fever demand that happened with the Prius. It's a lot easier to sell a vehicle for $22k than it is at $40k. Exponentially easier.

    The Escape hybrid is high 20s, $29k or so IIRC. The Saturn Vue Greenline really tosses a wrench in to the segment with a price under $23k.

    Subaru would probably be best off coming out with a hybrid off a volume model, so Outback would make most sense. They could price it at $30k (assuming it's a 2.5i + hybrid) and sell it easily, the interior is much nicer than the Escape's.

    Tribeca would be too low-volume. A niche within a niche is just too small. Forester? Might get too pricey and be compared to the Vue Greenline.

    -juice
  • grabowskygrabowsky Member Posts: 74
    Subaru won't gain any market share until they get rid of their underpowered 2.5L flat 4. For some reason they just don't want to accept that.
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    ha ha - you're joking, right? Underpowered?
  • dstew1dstew1 Member Posts: 275
    Considering the 2.5L is used across the Impreza/Forester Legacy/Outback model range, you'll have to be more specific as to in which models they should "get rid of" it.

    Sure the NA version is a bit pokey in the heavier Legacy and Outback base models, but makes the base Impreza and Forester the most powerful 4 cylinder models in their respective classes.

    As for the 2.5L turbo... I think we can assume you weren't even considering it when you made your "underpowered" assessment. :confuse:
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    is OK as a base engine in the Legacy/Outback, but not at the $25K+ base price of the Outback. No wonder they need so many incentives to sell the 2.5i not two years into the new model cycle. I see now there is a new lease promo, in addition to the very generous cash back offer. Is this model expected to run at least five years, as is the norm? How hard will they have to be pushing this thing in years 4 and 5? And this is their volume model.

    As for the Impreza line, the flip side is that the 2.5 makes that model very fast but gives it really bad fuel economy among other cars in its size class. Much faster cars make better mpg than Impreza! LESS EXPENSIVE cars that make more power make better mpgs (using FWD, of course, so it is not apples to apples, but again we run into the age-old dilemma with Subaru - how many buyers need or want the AWD enough to ante up the $2000 extra for it?)

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Subaru won't gain any market share until they get rid of their underpowered 2.5L flat 4. For some reason they just don't want to accept that.

    Whaaaat? :confuse:

    The 2.5l makes 173-175hp and pretty much is the opposite of underpowered for an engine of that displacement. Honda and Toyota have similar sized engines that make less power, and the Subie motor actually matches some lesser V6s.

    They don't want to accept that? Is that why every single model that offers the 2.5l also offers a turbo upgrade? Baja, Impreza, Forester, Legacy, and Outback. All of them.

    Your statement could not be further from the truth.

    Perhaps what you're trying to say is that the base Outback is underpowered, well then, get the H6. Or the turbo. Subaru offers not one but TWO upgrade engines for you.

    -juice
  • au1994au1994 Member Posts: 3,728
    Here's the engine specs I came up with:

    Camry 4 cyl: 158 hp 161 ft/lbs torque
    Accord 4 cyl: 166/160
    Outback 4 cyl: 175/169

    2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Limited Velvet Red over Wicker Beige
    2024 Audi Q5 Premium Plus Daytona Gray over Beige
    2017 BMW X1 Jet Black over Mocha

  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    As the base engine for the Legacy/Outback wagons, it might not be the greatest, but Juice is right. They offer not one, but two upgrades if power is what you want.

    As the base engine in their other vehicles, it is perfectly adequate in terms of power output.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Toss in Mazda6, with 160/155 from a 2.3l.

    Only Nissan matches Subaru, with 175hp from the same displacement, 2.5l.

    You know who needs works? The Suzuki Verona, with just 155hp from a 2.5l in-line six.

    -juice
  • grabowskygrabowsky Member Posts: 74
    ha ha..no I'm not joking. For what they charge for their cars that motor is underpowered. And of course I'm not talking about the turbos. My are'nt we all defensive!I had a 2002 Impreza and enjoyed it very much. It had some mechanical issues(premature wear on bearings,computor glitches,recall for a new type of coolant I'd have to use for the life of the car because at least for that year Subaru forgot how to make head gaskets)but the car was a blast to drive.Well, except for the laughable manual transmission that felt like it came straight out of the 70,s. And if you're all going to scream about the 2.5 is more powerful than HonToy 4 bangers then lets compare the WHOLE car.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    with the AWD in every Subaru model, the 10-15 hp advantage of the Soob 2.5 is offset by the weight gain over competing models...

    My fear is that Subaru is going to get lost in the rush to AWD that all the other automakers will execute in the next dozen years. It should start to build more quirky models like days past to regain peoples' attention. No, the Baja clearly was not it. But the Brat did catch peoples' eye back in the day, so that was a good try. Now for something new...

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • dino001dino001 Member Posts: 6,191
    I think some of the "underpowered" feel may come from those automatic 4-speed transmissions that are often reported being "lazy", "lethargic", etc. They are also geared quite tall, IIRC (for fuel economy). Add weight penalty and mechanical loss on AWD and you get 4-cylinder Legacy with auto may feel significanlty slower than 4-cylinder Accord.

    About 70s manual - perhaps, I don't know. As I recall, 5-speed in 70s was quite rare. My WRX feels allright in that area. Short-throw shifter combinced with heavy duty clutch require some force or you may miss it, but rewards you with nice sporty shifts.

    2018 430i Gran Coupe

  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    about Subaru sales up strongly over last year:

    http://www.autospectator.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=4557

    although it turns out while May was a big boost vs last May, YTD sales are up only 3% (which is still better than being down! ;-))

    What caught my eye was Tribeca sales, called "strong" at 1481 in May. If they can hold that pace, that would still only amount to maybe 18K for the whole year, which is way below all hopes and dreams and forecasts for this model, isn't it? And WAY below pretty much every competing model I can think of offhand.

    I wish they had held off on the Tribeca a year or two and updated the Impreza and Forester first...which by the way are the two models with the biggest increases in sales in May. What does this tell you, eh?

    Oh yeah, and they sold 416 Bajas! :-P

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • raybearraybear Member Posts: 1,795
    For what they charge? Their cars are all AWD and have more standard features than most.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'm with raybear on this one. Subaru simply chooses not to compete in the cellar of "base" models that lack your basic features. The higher price comes with extra content, for instance ABS, AWD, and a power package are standard on every car they sell.

    May was good, but 1481 sales for the Tribeca is not. They've had much better months than that. Didn't they get near 3000 once? :confuse:

    -juice
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    Ditto. The Soobs tend to be smaller, but they make up for that by offering a very comprehensive list of goodies. The small size of most models also offsets some of the weight that is added by the AWD.
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    I think 18K was what Subaru was forecasting for the first calendar year (which was partially over at the time). 40K was the yearly forecast from there on out.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    There were several forecasts, but the one that comes to mind for me was 17k the first year (they managed 15k).

    Annually, I'd heard both 40k and 35k forecasts. Call it 3000 per month. They're not even close to sustaining that level of sales.

    The 07 will get more content and hopefully a small price drop (which the 07 Forester got). $3 gas isn't helping, I'm sure some of those shoppers are driving off with Foresters. That would explain an older model being up 18% in sales. :confuse:

    -juice
  • smittynycsmittynyc Member Posts: 289
    I just got my latest CR, and for the first time I can remember, the Forester isn't their top pick as small SUV.

    That honor goes to the new RAV 4, and the CRV remains in the 2nd spot. The reason the Forester dropped seems to be simply the lack of available stability control.

    I wouldn't imagine this will hurt the core NE/mountain state sales, and I think a lot of Forester shoppers aren't looking for something as big as the new RAV (it's pretty much apples and oranges imo), but it stinks not having that recommendation.

    I'm not sure I want to see the Forester get too much bigger, but as juice and Bob have said all along, the next redesign of the model is critical. If it stays at the same size, it has to load in even more content and either freeze or lower the sticker.
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    It needs a revolutionary change. The turbo engine did a whole lot more for it than I predicted, but adding power once more isn't going to cut it. The law of diminishing returns and all that. Whatever change they make, it should be an area where the current vehicle doesn't already excel.

    Increased size would be the obvious choice, but Soob might come up with something truly different. The first small SUV/hovercraft or something like that. :shades:
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Funny thing is they rated the '03 Forester as "Excellent", now the new one merely "Very Good". I think what happens is the scoring gets tougher and tougher, so the same car rates lower each time it's re-tested. You can't stay still.

    To be fair, they tested an X model, and if you factor in the rebates it's cheaper than the others.

    They should have at least tested an X Limited (adds EBD, rear disc brakes, limited-slip, and the all-weather package).

    Two wheelbases would be my ideal scenario for the next Forester.

    Rumor has it the Impreza might get a wheelbase stretch to where the Legacy is now, at least the B5-TPH concept did. That would be a big jump - almost 6" longer...

    Maybe too big for some.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I agree. Subaru will need to make some big moves with the next Forester. If it's built off the current Legacy platform, that's a good cost-effective way to make it roomier. The Legacy has a 105.1" wheelbase. If the Forester and Impreza get that same wheelbase, but with less overhangs, that would be great IMO. Even if they only give it a 103" or so wheelbase, that would be a big improvement over the current 99.4" wheelbase.

    Going to a longer wheelbase does not mean it will lose its "tossability." The EVO has a wheelbase of ~ 104" and it handles like a slot car. So I'm not concerned if the wheelbase grows, that it will be less fun to drive.

    Bob
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I helped move my daughter from NC to MD earlier this week. We rented a Ford E-150 cargo van and we had my daughter's '04 CRV.

    The CRV was PACKED! There's no way that our '01 Forester could have held the same amount of stuff that went into the CRV. That's what Subaru needs to aim for, something with CRV-like packability.

    Bob
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    Can't say I've ever seen "packability" on the spec sheet. :confuse: Might look good in an ad, though.
  • raybearraybear Member Posts: 1,795
    The RAV has a nice update, too bad it isn't a real AWD.
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I also just learned that the 4Motion on the latest VW Passats has also been changed to an on-demand system, like the latest RAV4s. No longer is a full-time AWD. :(

    Bob
  • raybearraybear Member Posts: 1,795
    Yee-haw! Thanks! Where can I find that info? Did Audi do the same thing?
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I was talking to a VW salesman yesterday, and he told me that. Not sure if he was correct, as I just checked the VW site, and there was no mention of that.

    http://www.vw.com/passat/passat_mini_landing/minisite/vw_passat_06.html?ic_id=pa- ssat_mini

    Bob
  • raybearraybear Member Posts: 1,795
    They usually hide it, like Volvo with the XC.
  • wmquanwmquan Member Posts: 1,817
    The current-gen Passat drops the Torsen-based AWD system. It's now simple Haldex. So it's lost some capability there.
  • cyberfire12cyberfire12 Member Posts: 18
    I purchased an '06 Outback as a replacement for my '02 Passat wagon as the closest one I could get in terms of cargo room. I really liked the Forester design but found it too small. The shock towers really intruded into the cargo area as well, taking up space. The new RAV4 had the best room available but didn't like the AWD system on it.

    If the Forester was built on the OB/Leg chassis it would really an attractive option with good usuable room in it.

    BTW, I'm happy with the 2.5i power. I can go highway speeds, exceed when necessary and get a solid 24mpg. So far the OB has excelled on the fuel economy and reliability compared to my former 1.8T VW :)
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    You might have exceeded the payload. :P

    Let's see what they do with the next CR-V. Subaru does at least have the benefit of seeing what Toyota did with the RAV4, and will at least get a peek at the CR-V, though it may be too late to change much of the Forester design. I'm sure the hard points will be set in stone.

    The catch is, if they keep the Forester small, it's going to end up competing with new, smaller entries like the Suzuki SX4 and the Jeep Patriot, both lower priced but close in terms of size.

    I've been calling for the OB's rear multi-link suspension way back since the '03 redesign. The shock towers of the strut suspension do intrude, in fact that's why they could not move the seat farther back.

    One trade-off will be the underside, though. The struts do allow for a completely clean, flat bottom. Look under a Forester at the rear axle and you'll see .... nothing! On an Outback you'll see the lateral links sticking down. Same with a RAV4 or CR-V for that matter.

    But I think that the interior should take priority over the underside in this segment, so that's a sacrifice they'll just have to make.

    Here's a pic of my Forester, note how there is nothing at all to snag on an obstacle on the rear axle. The lowest point is the front cross member, basically the cradle that holds up the engine and tranny. It'll high center before anything breaks.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Payload? It was close, I'm sure. There was a desk and chair in there, along with a bunch of boxes and soft stuff. It was filled to the roof though.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    All the VW platforms have used a Haldex.

    The last Passat was based on the Audi A4, so it had a longitudinal layout and Torsen. They called it 4Motion for marketing, but it was really Quattro.

    Conversely, the Audi TT is a VW platform, so it has a Haldex (VW 4Motion), but they call it Quattro. :confuse: Same with the Audi A3 (Golf chassis).

    Any how, now that VW put the Passat on a stretched Jetta platform, it's back to transverse layouts and a Haldex.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'd have just put stuff on the roof. ;)

    Forester has a bit more payload, and that roof can carry 150 lbs.

    I drove 7 hours to the Outer Banks and carried everything you see in this picture plus 4 passengers and a dog. :surprise:

    -juice

    PS including the 2 bikes...
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    We don't have a roof rack. Besides, even if we did, it could only carry 75 pounds. :(

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'll stop here before varmint posts pics of GatorGreg's CR-V loaded up with sod. That was hysterical. His front tires almost left the ground. :D

    -juice
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    Sounds like the on-demand systems are winning the war of hearts and minds for the average buyer. Typically, competition drives manufacturers to produce "better" products. I'll let everyone here decide whether that's the case here or not.

    I will say that the improved better fuel economy and lower costs for on-demand systems sort of provide a win-win for both the buyer and the manufacturer.
  • dino001dino001 Member Posts: 6,191
    Better product is sometimes defined as "best for the given cost". Also best for one customer may mean something else for another. Fuel economy in "on demand" systems is probably better, as there is weight penalty only with small mechanical loss penalty, as opposed to those trully full-time systems.

    Microsoft's products were never best in the market, yet they prevailed over some really superior software packages. I can almost see car market being steered towards technologically inferior solutions, as they offer other advantages, not as essential to an average buyer.

    2018 430i Gran Coupe

  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I'll take a proactive full-time AWD any day of the week over a reactive on-demand AWD. IMO 4 wheels grabbing for traction is always better than 2 or sometimes 4, in spite of the slightly better MPG of the on-demand version.

    I hope Subaru never gives in to the on-demand popularity.

    Bob
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    juice - I didn't see the kitchen sink in that pic. Had you already loaded it?
  • wmquanwmquan Member Posts: 1,817
    I think the on-demand AWD systems have been improving enough so that most buyers either don't need or don't care/don't understand about the benefits of a true, full-time AWD system. It's sort of like how even a full-time AWD system can still get stuck in the right (wrong) circumstance. What's the real-world percent differential of getting stuck/having a tough time with an newer on-demand system vs. a full-time system?

    I think what Subaru can do is to focus on having fewer AWD drivetrains, and try to reduce weight and improve space efficiency of their AWD drivetrains. They can thus still maintain better winter traction than the on-demand systems. IIRC, the 4matic system in many MB sedans/wagons is space-efficient, light, and very effective.
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    True, "most" buyers could probably care less. However, "some" of us do care. :)

    Bob
  • raybearraybear Member Posts: 1,795
    Most buyers simply don't understand the difference and when it's explained to them they tend to favor full-time.
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    Most buyers simply don't understand the difference and when it's explained to them they tend to favor full-time.

    I'd challenge that. When the differences are explained to them, they'll glaze over.
  • varmintvarmint Member Posts: 6,326
    Good analogy, Dino. I wouldn't go so far as to say that one is superior than another. Both have their benefits. And, for the record, I'm not 100% sure the market is gravitating toward one or the other. It just seems like there have been more additions to the on-demand side of the fence in recent years. At least, as far as the mass market is concerned.

    To add to what Wmquan wrote, I also think stability control systems may have stolen some of the appeal of permanent AWD. Most buyers looking for AWD have done so for its foul weather benefits. While stability control doesn't offer the same benefits, it does have significant advantages in the slick stuff. That may be enough for a large percentage of buyers.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I agree, only because the type of person that will ask about it are the ones that will care enough to listen.

    Back to Subaru, though, I think the real issue is they're promoting "Symmetrical AWD", and while the powertrains are indeed symmetrical, they're still talking about at least 3 types of systems (VC, auto AWD, and VTD/VDC). They're all full-time, but even some Subaru fans get confused by the plethora of options once you add the rear LSDs, and traction and stability control, you have:

    Viscous Coupling, open diffs
    VC, rear LSD
    Auto AWD, open rear diff
    Auto AWD, rear LSD,
    VTD
    VTD + rear LSD
    VTD + Torsen rear LSD (spec.B)
    VDC
    DCCD (STI)

    And so on. I consider myself and expert and even I'm not sure if I listed all the choices.

    Plus, "Symmetrical AWD" isn't catchy like "Quattro" is. Or even "4Motion" for that matter.

    They have to consolidate. That would make it easier for consumers to understand, and easier to market, as well.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Most buyers looking for AWD have done so for its foul weather benefits.

    No argument there.

    I just prefer the approach that AWD can also be used as a driving enhancement 24/7, and not just something to get you up a snowy hill. Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, Subaru and now Acura follow this line of thinking. I'm not sure about BMW and Infiniti, but I suspect their systems are on-demand—but very good on-demand AWD systems.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    BMW is full-time, rear biased. I think Infiniti's is capable of both.

    -juice
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