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That statement made no impression at all, eh?
Prius production is being increased next year by 50%. Camry-Hybrid, which has been selling very well, will begin domestic production this month. New models are on the way. And that's just from Toyota. Other automakers are making efforts to expand hybrids too.
Growth is required. Hybrids are fulfilling that.
How will diesels compete?
JOHN
That statement made no impression at all, eh? "...
Evidently, not with you!???
I am beginning to think your blind rage and bias against diesels, literally blinds you to the truth. The idea that folks on this board are "ATTACKING" the hybrid (concept) is just plain false. However, I will grant that it DOES exist in your mind. Keep in mind this function of rage and bias also keeps other alternative fueled vehicles off the road also, i.e., nat gas, electric, etc. So for example if one had a need for short trips and was ok with a short mileage(tank) range, why not be able to use nat gas that you fill up at ones' house!!??? Of course the regulators would find this an absolute nighmare, despite the fact it is commonly known that nat gas emissions are VERY CLEAN, in fact cleaner than the Prius' emissions. Why not for example nat gas/hybrid?
Again if less than 1% (.005%) of the passenger vehicle fleet population is HYBRID AND diesels ARE 2.9%, Where did the consumers (ACTUALLY ) vote "with their purses and wallets"???????? I refuse to believe you are math challenged, let alone as math challenged as your glossing over the numbers would indicate you to be.
And, I am asking: "that actually make a difference"!?
So again, if the regulators are successful in banning the sales of new car diesels....
Also keep in mind the back drop, hybrids are HEAVILY promoted, while diesels have been not promoted to heavily vilified. In fact, new diesel car sales is BANNED in 5 states.
Not to string too many concepts together BUT, my take is if the oems brought the same amount, volume and % to market they would probably sell out!!
http://www.edmunds.com/media/advice/specialreports/how.far.would.you.go.intro/fu- - el.economy.combined.pdf#search=%22mpg%20natural%20gas%22
http://www.edmunds.com/media/advice/specialreports/how.far.would.you.go.intro/fu- el.economy.combined.pdf#search=%22mpg%20natural%20gas%22
This is sweet! Ingoring the future by placing all attention on the past instead is another great example.
How will diesel increase beyond the 2.9% ?
Hybrid growth continues. Their primary selling points are emissions & efficiency. Diesel could offer the same. In that case, what would compel a person to buy a diesel instead of a hybrid?
As for the promotion claim, that's absolutely hysterical. Look who's doing a bunch of it: THE CONSUMER!
They are contributing their own resources to feed the desire for cleaner and less guzzling. They are making a difference on that front too, not just from purchases alone.
If diesel supporters to continue to settle for status quo, even that 2.9% is in jeopordy. So what are they going to do to prevent that?
JOHN
I think you think "this is sweet because" that is EXACTLY what you are doing. I think it would serve you better if you just admit it!!
Again the fact of the matter is fully 97.1% of the passenger vehicle fleet is unleaded regular and gasser continued emphasis on (gasser)/hybrids do NOTHING to change this. I think your attitudes and buyer habits makes the strongest case for continued use and growth of use and "ADDICTION" to unleaded regular(foreign) oil.
So... you've never heard of ethanol or plug-in hybrids?
No wonder the support for diesel.
JOHN
To address your "ethanol" "alternative" fuel reference, it gets app 25% less fuel efficiency (per gal) than unleaded gas.It currently also costs MORE than unleaded regular per gal. So if you got 48 mpg with a Prius (gasser)hybrid, you would probably get 36 mpg with an ethanol/hybrid. You might be "driving up hill" on this issue unless one is adamant about using ethanol or "alternative" fuel, or it is significantly cheaper per mile driven than unleaded regular. Heck I get 38/42 mpg with a Civic gasser/ NO hybrid!!! Nat gas would probably get 43 mpg, but per mile driven very cheap. Availability is potentially literally anywhere there is a HOME nat gas outlet. Diesel/hybrid would probably be 65 mpg. As for plug in hybrids, again like nat gas, electrical is available in most housing. Again see my response as to why regulators would find this a NIGHTMARE.
Again as a response to your "broken record, re-record, and forget historical discussions" type of posting, the 37% diesel advantage is getting real hard for CONSUMERS to ignore. This might even account some for the less than 1% gasser hybrid vs 2.9% diesel of the vehicle fleet discussion.
I am glad you read my post about alternative fuels. I would say by your quote, you might even remotely agree with my position. Now you need to read my past post/s for understanding.
The support for diesel is easy to understand. It has more power in the range needed for normal driving. It is more efficient than any of fuel I know of. When the government manages to get everyone selling ULSD it will be cleaner in many aspects than gas cars. It is now as clean as many new gas vehicles on the market. If some of your smarter citizens use their heads they will buy up the diesel cars as fast as they hit the showrooms. Drive them for a year then take them to one of the 5 CARB states and sell them for more than they paid new.
What is hard for me to understand is why anyone that really digs into the hybrids being sold would consider buying one. They are overly complex (38% more parts than a non-hybrid car). They don't get close to EPA mileage. The premium charged is borderline extortion and the list goes on.
The Prius II is just now 3 years old. Saying it is reliable is kind of a joke in my book. It has had more recalls and reports to the NHTSA ODI than just about any recent car on the market. The high rating given by owners is understandable. You pay that much for that little and then find out you got shafted, who would admit it?
This "seamless" transition was NOT true (as I remember) for the transition from leaded regular to UNleaded regular in the 70's. It was not a good idea to buy (many) unleaded regular burning vehicles till the latter half of the 80's.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
Carlos Ghosn viewpoint is that hybrid is Dud in terms of value!
Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said, "They make a nice story, but they're not a good business story yet because the value is lower than their costs."
Hybrid Altima
The restrained rollout of the Altima Hybrid reflects Ghosn's skepticism over the viability of the hybrid as a solution. However, Nissan has stated that it has the capacity to manufacture up to 50,000 hybrids in the U.S.--much more than the expected demand in the eight states.
They won't be able to smell the diesels or hear the diesels, though they will be able to see them!
If I have noticed one thing about people that are totally eaten up with the hybrid concept. They have blinders on that only see emissions as a problem. Weaning us off of fossil oil is not of interest. Making more pollution in the manufacturing stages of the automobile is inconsequential. Buying new cars every 2-3 years to get the latest emissions gadget is acceptable. These other aspects are as important to our environment as SULEV or PZEV. Yet they are dismissed as unimportant. Like the air is all that concerns them. The same ignorance that was behind the MTBE mess we are now paying dearly to repair.
But now that it's here, we still don't get the clean diesel systems.
-end
We still do not get hybrids from BMW.
We still do not get hybrids from Chrysler.
We still do not get hybrids from Mercedes.
We still do not get hybrids from Pontiac.
We still do not get hybrids from Nissan in 42 states.
We still do not get hybrids from Subaru.
We still do not get hybrids from Dodge.
We still do not get hybrids from Isuzu.
We still do not get hybrids from Suzuki.
We still do not get hybrids from Buick.
We still do not get hybrids from Hyundai.
We still do not get hybrids from Mini.
We still do not get hybrids from VW.
We still do not get hybrids from Audi.
We still do not get hybrids from Mazda.
We still do not get hybrids from Mitsubishi.
When will the above manufacturers belive in hybrid technology enough to begin offering them?
Honda, Audi, BMW, VW, Mercedes, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Subaru, Chevrolet, and Ford have all stated they will have light duty diesel vehicles on the road by 2009.
Nearly all of the manufacturers listed already sell diesels in other markets, something that can not be said for hybrid.
I think you will see people doing the same thing with the R320 CDI and ML320 CDI as they are doing with the E320 CDI and VW TDIs. Buying them used and bringing them into CA. More than one way to skin a CARB.
That's because the smart money is spent on diesels in the EU. I believe if the customer is offered the same vehicle in both diesel and hybrid, they will take the diesel 9 out of 10 times if they drive both. Its a no brainer.
If Toyota is the "Green" manufacturer that cares about the environment then why not hybridize the Toyota's with the poorest mileage and highest emissions? Or are hybrids simply a pubic relations strategy to divert attention away from it's trucks that are getting bigger, and bigger and bigger. By gosh, Toyota is Texas sizing them trucks now!
Toyota does manufacture a 4WD, automatic transmission truck that obtains 28 mpg highway :surprise: , the HiLux 3.0L D4D. Sadly, Toyota does not sell it here.
Personally I think that selling the formerly 'dirty diesel' to Mom is going to be a lot harder than selling the already 'positive' hybrid concept. Ditto the diesel MDX vs the RX400h. Then when and if they bring a diesel Accord to go head to head with the TCH it will be another knock-em down battle.
Both Honda and Toyota are going both routes to keep all the options alive. Honda probably has a lead in diesel technology, at least from press reports.
That's because the smart money is spent on diesels in the EU.
-end
Yep. And it is not just the EU that spends it's money on diesels. Toyota HiLux diesel is sold in over 100 countries.
One nice side effect of the EU using diesel is that they have a surplus of refined gasoline which they export to the US so we can burn cheap gas in our gas guzzlers. We don't like diesel sippers in the US, right?
The diesel Hi-Lux is in the same limbo as the Ranger, Nissan, GM and Dakota. I would guess soon for all of these.
Toyota's current D4D diesel engines are widely believed to meet current and upcoming emissions regulations in the US.
If Toyota decides that the "winds of change" favor diesel, Toyota can bring diesels to the US nearly as easily as flipping a switch. Certainly they can ramp up diesel production much more easily than hybrid production.
Hopefully they don't jump into the PU truck HP race for diesels. I can see a 3.0L diesel PU as practical. I don't need a fire breathing 6+L diesel with 800 foot lbs of torque. I love the 5 cylinder diesel in my MB Cruiser.
Diesel Sequoia sounds good also. Maybe I'll give Toyota another chance. The money is in the bank waiting for the right vehicle. Right now the Mercedes GL320 CDI is in the lead for my attention. It could change.
but after renting one and using it in the real world, I got only 44.5 mpg....and with a nail biting experience everytime I tried to mergo onto a freeway !! ( prius 0-60 takes a long time)
so I bought a diesel yesterday..... I just could not justify the cost of a hybrid..which are really high right now....plus the upfront incrased energy used in production, and later on in processing the batteries...
You might find better converesation about the natural gas Civic over there.
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Both legitimate complaints from a true environmentalist. If all people care about is the air in their neighborhood, then a hybrid is an OK choice. If the global environment means anything, I believe hybrids are taking us down a poor path.
For the first time in 20 years fuel economy procedures will be revised in 2007 to become more realistic. Advertised hybrid city figures will drop 20 to 30%.
1/11/2006
Will hybrids gain on diesels in 2006
Hybrid sales down 30% from peak
Hybrid vehicle sales peaked in August 2005 and decline since then. Overall more than 200,000 hybrids were sold in 2005 up from 9500 in 2000. In comparison 543,000 diesel vehicles were sold last year in the USA, including many a E320 CDI, Jeep Liberty, Sprinter van and Dodge RAM.
12/15/2005
Hopefully this does not hurt my resale value.
GM to discontinue mild ISAD hybrids
According to the suppliers the mild hybrids GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado RWD with integrated starter alternator damper (ISAD) will not be carried forward to GM's new SUV models.
8/17/2006
Diesel & Hybrid trivia
in this month's motor trend, they report the R320 gets 24/30 mpg!! And the GL320 will get 22/28!!!
Certainly higher than my estimates. And, at that rating, I can't fault the choice of a GL, either. The ML actually falls in between those 2. I don't quite understand that, but maybe it has to do with drag coefficients. The R is obviously sleeker, although heavier.
Also, I thought I was led to believe the Grand Cherokee would be using the same engine. That is apparently not true. Its a much larger diesel, hence the abysmal mileage.
'11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S
Now a Diesel Tacoma/HiLux is probably more what you're looking for. These already exist all over the world and as moparbad noted it would only necessitate two 'minor' changes; repeal of the 'chicken tax' and/or EPA approval of the small diesel.
For the first time in 20 years fuel economy procedures will be revised in 2007 to become more realistic. Advertised hybrid city figures will drop 20 to 30%.
1/11/2006
Will hybrids gain on diesels in 2006
Hybrid sales down 30% from peak
Hybrid vehicle sales peaked in August 2005 and decline since then. Overall more than 200,000 hybrids were sold in 2005 up from 9500 in 2000. In comparison 543,000 diesel vehicles were sold last year in the USA, including many a E320 CDI, Jeep Liberty, Sprinter van and Dodge RAM.
12/15/2005"...
COMBINED with a few interesting projections....
Given published hybrid sales figures of 200,000 hybrids vs 543,000 diesel vehicles in 2005, how long does the math say to get to 12% of the vehicle fleet (235.4 M vehicles in the PVF) (similar to the SUV passenger vehicle fleet PERCENTAGE) hybrid .005%, 135.355 years vs diesel 2.9%, 39.45 years?
Interesting how hybrids are heavily promoted, while diesel at the worst case are vilified.
Hybrid vehicle sales peaked in August 2005 and decline since then. Overall more than 200,000 hybrids were sold in 2005 up from 9500 in 2000. In comparison 543,000 diesel vehicles were sold last year in the USA, including many a E320 CDI, Jeep Liberty, Sprinter van and Dodge RAM.
12/15/2005
Nit.
Do these diesel sales include the big HD rigs? If so then the data is not really relevant to the discussion of small/midsized vehicles. Comparing these sales to the relatively recent sales of a completely new power system for light vehicles shows nothing except that the century-old fuel system used here primarily for trucks is well proven - but limited - here in the US.
Next year if the diesel figure is still 500K+ vehicles then Toyota by itself will match at least half that number.
This discussion will be really relevant when there are competing vehicles in the same size and class such as there will be in 2008. My guess is that the result will be that the two systems accomplish the same goal in terms of FE at about the same cost. Choose whichever option suits you best. Choose which vehicle suits you best. Choose which manufacturer has your confidence.
Presently only the Jetta TDI / Prius and the Passat TDI / TCH compete directly.
My take is that if the market is truly opened up or the regulatory bias AGAINST diesel is mitigated, sales of diesels (passenger vehicle fleet) will far surpass hybrids. (passenger vehicle fleet)
Even with the bias against and 5 states' bans against new diesel car sales VS heavy bias FOR and heavy promotion in favor of hybrids, the historical sales ratio is better than 2.7 to one, diesel/hybrid.
I am sure that it includes the full size HD PU trucks. The reason I believe it is relevant has to do with choices. Many contractors could get by with a smaller diesel truck than a 1 ton fire breathing monster truck. Due to ignorant regulations and past deals we are not given a choice. So you take what is available. A 3/4 ton PU with a diesel gets better mileage than a 1/2 ton with a small gas engine. Even the V6 PU trucks are gas hogs by comparison.
Same goes for cars. Many who buy a hybrid also look at diesel. With the only option for the average car buyer being the VW TDI it is very limited. Many are prejudiced against VW and will buy the Toyota or Honda hybrid because of perceived reliability. Most are looking to improve mileage when looking at a hybrid or diesel. I am included. Unfortunetly nothing in the showrooms today has any appeal to me. If I bought a new vehicle today. It would be a 3/4 ton GMC crew cab with a Duramax Diesel. It is the least ugly of all the PU trucks available. I would probably keep the GMC hybrid if not for the flaky extended cab door design. Also not enough room for passenger comfort in the back seat.
Hybrid sales down 30% from peak
Hybrid vehicle sales peaked in August 2005 and decline since then. Overall more than 200,000 hybrids were sold in 2005 up from 9500 in 2000. In comparison 543,000 diesel vehicles were sold last year in the USA, including many a E320 CDI, Jeep Liberty, Sprinter van and Dodge RAM.
Diesel technology is well proven, simple and capable but comparing a 100 year headstart to a brand new 10 y.o. innovation then saying 'See....' is not a valid comparison. It's simply a snapshot as of today. If total hybrids in 2008 equal or exceed diesels does that mean that diesel technology has been proven to be a 100 y.o. dud? No, that too is just a snapshot.
Arguing from the specific to the general is always false - as are all generaliztions. :surprise:
Also, no one is forcing folks to buy hybrid and yes, the population is probably like in the USA !! ie less than 1% (.005%)
I think our fellow blogger is failing to note that hybrids are almost as old (100 years).
diesel registrations
Snippett:
In the light-duty market, diesel registrations nearly doubled (95% growth) between 2000 and 2005, climbing from 22,543 to 44,031. When given a choice between a gasoline or diesel engine, consumers purchased the diesel engine option almost half the time (45%) in 2005. By contrast, sales of light-duty gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles hit 205,749 in 2005.
../..
Medium-duty vehicles (such as the Chevrolet Silverado, Dodge Ram, Ford F-Series and GMC Sierra Trucks) represent the bulk of the light-and medium-duty diesel sales in the US: 477,853 units in 2005, or 88% of the total.
It appears that the huge majority of diesel are directed to trucks, as would be expected. Light diesel vehiles are still a very limited part of the US market.
No one is being forced, however, hybrids are not exactly part of free market economy with the government incentives to purchase hybrids and government incentives in the form of HOV stickers for single occupant hybrids.
How much of the market can hybrids maintain without taxpayer dollars as an incentive to purchase?
I am fully aware that the bulk of diesel sales are 3/4 ton PU trucks or bigger. That is what is offered to the consumer.
Do you really believe if the Camry were offered with a diesel engine that the TCH would outsell it? I know what my choice would be. And it is based on driving experience. The only thing to me that the hybrid offers is a quiet ride in town. If as many owners have posted the ICE in the hybrids runs to a high RPM when under load it would not be pleasing to my ears. Give me 2000 RPMs at 70 MPH up hill and down.
Now to your second question that's a good point of discussion. Do I think that a diesel Camry would outsell a hybrid Camry if both were offered. No. Not in the US. Not in the immediate future. It will take some doing by very good marketers to move the American public toward diesel. It can be done but it will take some time, I'm guessing 10 yrs after introduction.. say 2015 to 2020.
One of the smartest realizations that Toyota and Honda made back in the 90's was that by jumping onto hybrid technology in a big way they could gain a 10 yr headstart on the rest of the industry in the US market, their most important. In addition each would have free rein during that 10 yr period to gather all the technical knowhow - and good press - from producing the most fuel efficient, clean vehicles. Since both produce diesels all over the world eleswhere each knows the benefits of the simpler technology. The difference however was that hybrid technology could be sold everywhere in the US immediately in 2000 with no governmental limitations whereas new diesels could not. The main limiting factor was education of the public which has taken the better part of 5 years.
Basically they each took a look at what could be sold right away and still achieve the goal of better fuel efficiency. The fact that both jumped early allowed the two of them to corner the market on the technology and supply of components. Can the technology be advanced even further, such as the 60-90 mpg Gen 3 Prius? I have no idea except that I'm certain that any such advancement will come only from Toyota or Honda for the next 5-10 yrs.
Sidenote: The Prius and the TCH run dead silently at cruising speeds on the highway. RPM's are about 950 normally which is just above idle speed. This actually is the basis of most of the fuel savings on the highway ( 38 mpg TCH vs 33 mpg 4c ICE ). Put your foot into it and it's a normal-sound 4c. It's just different since we've all grown up with one type of sound and feel to our driving. The HSD vehicles are different for a different age.
Do I think that a diesel Camry would outsell a hybrid Camry if both were offered. No. Not in the US. Not in the immediate future. It will take some doing by very good marketers to move the American public toward diesel. It can be done but it will take some time, I'm guessing 10 yrs after introduction.. say 2015 to 2020.
-end
$1000 extra for a diesel Camry
$3000 extra for a hybrid Camry
Given the above choice, even if the amount was reduced to $2000 for hybrid, I do believe that diesel Camry would outsell the hybrid Camry.
The option for diesel in UK on an Avensis (which is the most similar model to US Camry) is less than $1000.
It is reasonable to predict that Toyota can offer D4D engines in North America for a similar cost.
Toyota has very good marketers. Very, very good. Would it really even take much more than minimal effort on the part of the sales channel to sell a vehicle that obtains 47% better mpg than the regular gasoline version, has superior torque and greater hp (and all this for $1000 extra)?
Heck, I'll go back to selling Toyota's and I'm confident I can sell Camry diesels all day every day.
If the it's not broken, why fix it. No reason at all for Toyota to introduce change into it's very well oiled machine in North America. At least not until Honda starts selling it's diesels.
I would say that they are infinitely comparable and more importantly "scale able". I would even say that the underlying assumptions are not only transparent but STATED also.
So for example to address your concern, if one does not want to correlate it with any of those underlying assumptions and say wanted to mention ONLY that hybrids sell for the price oems AND dealers wish to sell it for. They also sell most all of the stock they make, then I would probably not dis AGREE.
But if you want to give it the so called "savior" status that more than a few anti diesel folks wish to imbue the hybrid, when it comes to saving fuel (macro) statistically significantly decrease emissions due to transportation etc etc, one is SADLY MISTAKEN.
If the it's not broken, why fix it. No reason at all for Toyota to introduce change into it's very well oiled machine in North America. At least not until Honda starts selling it's diesels.
Maybe it’s time to write a letter to Toyota and let them know that “I’m in the market for a diesel passenger car. Are you going to be providing the US market with a diesel Camray? If not, I will purchase from VW or wait for the Honda diesel”.
Empty threat on my part at this time as all my spare change goes for college, but if Toyota sees enough letters pass their way with inquiries for diesels and the possibility of lost market share they might get a move on. Then again they might not have anything that will meet the new emissions standards. On this matter I’m not well informed.
Well if you persist then.. in the area of light vehicles, such as passenger cars, hybrids outsell diesel by more than 3/1 and with the advent of the TCH this year possibly as much as 5/1. This is a growing trend by the US buying public favoring hybrid technology over diesels by a wide margin ( much wider ). Before this ratio shrinks beginning in 2008 it could reach 6/1 or 7/1 in favor of hybrids.
There are only about 45,000 light diesel vehicle being registered in this country annually. It's hardly worth discussing except for the potential for growth.
45,000 !!! That's less then 6 month's sales of just the Prius.
Diesel trucks. Now there is an area that has some weight - so to speak.
My guess is that they are going to let the hybrid Camry fight these battles whenever the diesel invasion arrives. But by then it will have 3-5 years of sales and acceptance. As well as 3-5 more years to reduce the 'premium' toward zero. What if all Camry's in the next generation were hybrids, at the same price as the current ICE models?
Diesels for Europe...hybrids for the US. Let the market speak and supply it accordingly.
Not understanding the hybrid system is a problem rapidly being overcome.
People are figuring out that there are transmission repair shops all over the place... since traditional designs simply aren't as robust as they should be. They wear out.
A "full" hybrid doesn't have anything that ever engages or disengages. All there is for the transfer of thrust is a power-split-device, which works just like a traditional differential... a device with extraordinarily high reliability. And brushless electric motors never wear out or even require any routine maintenance.
What is there that isn't simple? You cannot claim the electronic controls, since there are so many already in traditional vehicles and they have much higher reliability than moving parts anyway.
Consider how often the engine doesn't run in a "full" hybrid. Not even using it will definitely extend its life.
JOHN