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The Big 3 and the domestic issues that will affect them
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Inflation was on the rise, and that's why the Fed had to raise interest rates to fight it off. With a rise in overall interest= higher interest rates on home loans, car loans= a reduce # of people rushing out to buy Big 3 cars. 52.4% is a devistating drop for the Big 3. If Asian car sales are up, most of those profits don't stay here.
Most of them are hurting too, but not nearly as bad as the Big 3.
I just hope you are right, and those economist are wrong.
Thanx for the opinion
Rocky
falconone-> icing on the cake is a understatement. I feel it's going to rise like a hot air balloon unfortunatly.
Rocky
I really think we're past the days when it was said, "
As GM goes, so goes the economy:
Well I got the fix all solution. The solution is: A 60 yr. note on a vehicle. :surprise: Hey we are up to 96 Months or better, and I expect like houses it will go up. Hell next we are going to see a "reverse mortgage" on cars.
Rocky
The cost of living however hasn't kept up with peoples wages. The avg. cost of living in the United States has rose 7% from last year. My paycheck only increased 4%. My 4% however is better than what most are getting across the board. :lemon:
The 4th Quarter in my opinion will be the tell tale sign.
Rocky
A lot of these people who get themselves in over their heads have basically done it to themselves. And they have nobody to blame but themselves. Now there ARE a lot of good, honest, hard working people who simply run into bad luck, because of health reasons, family problems, unemployment, living in an economically depressed area, etc. But there are also too many people trying to keep up with the Joneses. Well I got news for you...the Joneses just filed for bankruptcy the other day! :P
Here are my perspectives:
1. First, it isn't the big 3 anymore. I view only GM and Ford as American and Chrysler as German.
2. My perception is that foreign car buying is more than just a perception of quality now, it is also a perception of class. Several members of the "herd mentality" in the US actually view me as stupid for even bringing up the topic of purchasing an American car today.
3. GM's (in particular) current approach to resolving the problems (IMO perceived quality and what boils down to desirability (class)) seems to be with lip service. Their commercials are simply saying the vehicles get good gas mileage and are of high quailty, however, the EPA mileage ratings and Consumer Reports say differently.
Any solution will come with a price tag, however, that investment needs to be made soon. Here are my suggestions. First, extend the warranty immediately to 6 years and 80,000 miles (industry leading). If GM is confident in their quality, then it won't be an issue. If they are simply giving lip service, then they better double the panel of review engineers for each new design to go to market. Second, if the vehicles are truly the most fuel efficient, back it up. Have a third party company do a study and check the EPA ratings against actual performance for several cars across the market. Otherwise, get the excess weight out of the car and make the engine at a higher tolerance. Finally, the sport versions of each vehicle need to be available. GM's current strategy is to under-produce the vehicles that people want so that the dealers can gouge them with tack on fees.
I am also better off today, then I was 4 years ago. I do feel I am one of the minorities, especially in my family.
The Big 3 need to be class leading in alot of segments. I think Creature Feature Technology to go along with good quality would save em'. I think most folks, want RWD or AWD cars. "FWD needs to go all togeather" The Big 3 needs to eliminate all FWD vehicles immediantly. What's the point in having FWD is their are no pluses. If you want rust belt folks to buy a certain car, then darn it make it AWD !!!
Thanx
Rocky
Auto sales are still up for the year. A lot of sales got pulled forward by employee pricing. Normally at this time, previous model year cars are being sold at huge discounts to clear them off the lots. Employee pricing did that early. We had record sales numbers all summer. The 2005s are mostly gone, and the 2006s are still relatively new, and have few incentives yet.
I have listen to several economist on TV and Radio that have said that a recession is unavoidable.
Keep in mind that bad news sells better than good news. The 2001 recession was one of the mildest of all time, but the news spin was that we were in a second great depression. Doom and gloom sells. That's not to say we're not headed for a recession, but there are always some predicting bad things "right around the corner"
We buy way to many imports. We export significantly less than we import. The tariffs of other country's kill are exports. So many american company's build the stuff in foreign country's to avoid tariffs. We need to do the same.
Rocky
You're from Michigan, right? Michigan is definitely in recession, and has been for years. I moved out of Michigan 6 months ago to find a job, and, in looking, discovered that the national economy is much stronger almost everywhere else. The conventional wisdom used to be "How goes GM goes the nation" I think the new wisdom should be "How goes GM, goes Michigan." The national economy today is much larger than any one company or industry.
think most folks, want RWD or AWD cars. "FWD needs to go all togeather"
I think most people don't care if a car is FWD or RWD, they want it to get them from point A to point B reliably and comfortably.
What's the point in having FWD is their are no pluses
Have you ever driven in the snow?
I agree, we should put equal retaliatory tarrifs on any country that uses them to restrict our exports. We should also add tarrifs to make up for subsidies foreign governments give their automakers. The biggest problem internationally is currency manipulation by the Japanese government. GM has repeatedly accused Japan of massive currency manipulation and claims it gives them an advantage of aboute $3000 per car.
I know a lot of people complain about torque steer with high-powered FWD cars. However, you get a RWD car with enough power, and you still get it. The only difference is that your rear-end wants to shoot off to one side instead of the front!
(because it had a lower center of gravity, which made it more stable)
I agree GM does effect Michigan the most. Michigan used to be one of the wealthiest states in the U.S. "Now Lousiana is basically better off."
I left Michigan pal for the exact same reason 3 1/2 yrs. ago. My dream of working for GM or Delphi looked promising in 97' well over the years that dream became only a memory. "I still believe in that theory, but replace GM with THE BIG 3" call me foolish, but you won't see the good paying factory jobs anymore, because greed, politics, etc has gotten into the way. Are country is ridiculously greedy, and everything is all about "ME !" Mentality. JFK was too smart.
"Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."
-John F. Kennedy
Now replace country with company, and that's what you got today.
JFK was the last of a dead breed.
GM needs a good balance like Ford.
I don't know if Chrysler is more German than American (a Germican? Or a Hybrid?), but Chrysler is at least building cars people WANT to buy, unlike GM and Ford. They always had style and were innovative, long before Daimler showed up, give them that much.
DrFill
While this may be true in general, I do not think this has much to do with the Big 3's problems. Do you really think anywhere else in the world there is a big demand for our big gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs (or in the case of DC, Hemi-powered monster cars)?
Outside the US, the only other two BIG markets are Europe and Japan. Have you ever been there? There is just no space on the roads for big trucks and SUVs, and with gas at $6 per gallon or so (in Europe), almost nobody could afford to drive them.
In these two markets, small, efficient, and nimble cars rule, and we all know that this is a particular strength of the Big 3. Not!
Well, the Japanese and Chinese governments buy loads of our debt (Treasury bonds etc), if that is what you mean. This keeps the dollar up and their currencies down, effectively helping their exports.
On the other hand, it also finances our ballooning public debt. If the Japanese and the Chinese would suddelnly stop buying our debt, we would surely go through a deep recession because the dollar would tumble and the interest rates would go through the roof. Now, AFTER this recession, our manufacturing sector MIGHT recover a bit fuelled
by the weaker dollar. Of course, almost everybodys standard of living would be lower because we'd have to pay much more for our imports (oil, for instance).
Bingo. About the only place outside of the US that has a taste for heavy (3500+ pounds), large-displacement cars is Australia and they already have their own to choose from. Full-size pickup trucks and SUVs simply don't exist in any quantity outside of North America. The small cars that sell in Europe and Asia (the Civic is the approximate equivalent of an Impala or 500 here) have much more refined interiors, drivetrains, and price tags than anything the Big 3 build here.
The Aveo is actually a rebadged Korean car, isn't it.
Your points about not wanting small cars are all well taken. I wouldn't want to drive an Aveo either
As for Europe having big cars: While you are right, they certainly exist, they are definitely a minority. Even Audi, BMW and Mercedes sell a large part of their cars with MUCH SMALLER engines than the ones we get here in the US.
I just looked at BMW's German Web page: The 3 series can be had with two four bangers making 129 and 150 hp. Of course, they also get more than 30 mpg combined!
DrFill
Without my job, I cannot go to the doctor... Without my job, I cannot go to the movies.. get it?? Without my job I cannot pay taxes to support schools, governernment. We are all connected....
The short-hand is, does buying an inferior product help you in the short-term?
No.
Does owning a car that isn't worth a damn in the long-term help the consumer?
No.
Blaming the consumer for buying the best product, thereby torpedoeing our economy, is like blaming the weatherman when it rains. All he's doing is reading the tealeaves, and forecasting based on recent personal and regional experience.
Toyota built a lot of sorry cars 30 years ago. They took the steps to have JD Power evaluate their work, and dedicated themselves to getting better. Now they are the best. Good management, a helpful government, strict discipline, and sound market strategy yields supremacy. Ask the New England Patriots if this approach is critical to success.
It's not about Vipers and Vettes, it's about making your core cars the best they can be, and duplicating that car after car, generation after generation. No hedged bets. No "badge engineering". Figure out where you are weakest, and improve. Find the best, and better it. If you are good at something, continue to listen to your customer base. Be honest.
And most of all, hire smart people! Don't throw around money just because you can.
What's Ford ROI for their Jaguar venture? Spent $5,000,000,000. Where is Jaguar now?
GM and Fiat? Helping market share in anyway?
Ford and Firestone. A 100 year partnership in ruin.
GM and Saturn. Once the light of the industry, where people actually LIKE TO SHOP! Did they invest in that? Small cars? Affordable. If they screwed up the Ion, where will they get Aura shoppers from? Are they growing any customer base?
Ford and Taurus? Ford and Contour (Expensive market defeat there! Only another couple of Billion!)
Cadillac has been dead for a generation, now only starting to awaken from it's tomb. Lexus took over their turf while they "rested"
Is Lincoln dead, or dying? I forget.
How much does Bill Ford make again? How much is his company losing? What would his grandfather say to him today?
Let's face it. The US consumer has been MORE than patient, and deserves better. And now they are buying it.
In any business, the first thing you must do is Know Your Market. Not take it for granted. Strike One!
Then listen to your consumer base to improve your product. Strike Two!
Then address competition before it addresses you. Either lead, follow or get out of the way. Only one of the Big 3 holds to that. I'm Out!
Mismanagement has crippled the US Auto Industry. They want to put it on the Unions, the workers, and the consumers, but The Man has, like a Nextel commercial, stuck it to himself! Maybe?
Maybe our government can help?
If Bush can't stop repeating history with another Vietnam, how can he save the US Auto Execs from destroying themselves? He's the icon for poor planning, misuse of power, and underachievment! :confuse:
If there are any Henry Ford's or Lee Iacocca's anymore they're in Japan. And maybe on the way to Korea!
DrFill
The Fed has been raising interest rates all year in an effort to control inflation, thus attempting to slow down the economy, or at least control growth. The auto industry will have very little effect IMO on when the next recession will hit. There are lots of reasons why the economy while growing, shows some signs of weakness.
IMO, people in general just have to much debt. With interest rates rising, it will only make things tighter for people who have over spent.
Most import fans say, "the Accord and Camry are built in the US theyre not imports". Well unfortunately the profit from every one of those cars goes right back to Japan to a company who doesnt employ unionized workers and pays their workers less and gives them less benefits than a Big 3 company would. If that Accord buyer bought an Impala instead, he would be putting all that profit right back into the North American economy, not to mention having a roomier, more powerful, more reliable, cheaper to own, better looking car.
Why are some people set on buying Hondas and Toyotas? I'm not sure, they seem to be convinced of their superiority. As a mechanic, I can tell you that Japanese cars are NOT exempt from quality issues and certainly not exempt from small repair bills. Bottom line is, buy North American, it feeds you and your neighbor no matter what you do or where you work.
This is why they have came over here to make alot of their vehicles.
There are alot of good patriots in this forum that have given great reasons of "WHY" our North American automobile and manufactoring company's are struggling. The United States and are sister Canada both have really good economy's. We togeather are being faced with a unfair trade. You are correct danio3834 we all pretty much have a friend or relative working for a Big 3 company or supplier.
I recieved my latest MT Magazine and saw that the Nissan Xterra won Motor Trends Sport Ute of the year crown. :sick: There is no way it's a better UTE than a Mercury Mountaineer. I feel like throwing-up and cancel my subscription because of the unfair biased that MT always gives Asian Imports. :sick:
The car mags do have a huge influence on the people, and keep the wheels of perception turning.
Motor Trend explained why Nissan was the best. Would be interesting to hear, point by point, why Mountaineer is better than Nissan.
The M-Class is a better rig than either, but didn't win because it is $55-60k, and is not as good off-road as the XTerra for less than half the price.
The Xterra hits it's target market, is light on the wallet, and is probably smoother that it's trucky image portrays.
In the end, this isn't a very good crop of new SUVs this year.
To help quell your biasness argument, the Ford Fusion beat out the Camry, and nearly the Accord, in the same issue. And they favored the Ford GT over GM and Chrysler too.
Awards don't sell cars. Knowing what the market wants and delivering it the best is what counts.
DrFill
#1 The Mercury has a better sophisticated "clean" design ! The Nissan looked like deformed Fat Albert. If it had a GM brand logo on it, the design alone would of lost it the calipers. :P But as you can see, this is over looked because it's an import.
#2 The Mountaineer had more safety features as standard equipment.
#3 The Mountaineer/Explorer (by far) use better premium materials on the interior and reflects in interior comfort and polish.
#4 The option of a V-8 on Mountaineer with more towing ability.
#5 The ride of the Mountaineer was "rock solid" compared to the Xterra.
#6 one of the best 6 speed autos on the market, something you can't get on a Xterra.
#7 AWD and technology like Gyroscope roll stability etc. make it better than the Xterra (in my opinion)
Have you ever shut the door on a Nissan ???.....My goodness the plastic vibrates like a tuning fork !!!!!!
Ford: has the Mustang, and new SUV's->Mountaineer/Explorer. And there underpowered RWD large cars have caught a little flair.
Loren,
A CTS isn't entry level Cadillac ???? So many gadgets ??? :confuse: I feel the lack of gadgets is what's hurting Cadillac and many other models. Lexus and Acura's line-up are plum full of gadgets i.e. voice recognition, voice activated navigation, AC seats, DVD surround sound, etc etc. You gotts step up to STS to get a really nice "gadge filled " American car.
If you want more simplistic common gadgets and a really nice well made car, look no firther than the Lacross or Lucerne. Pontiac has the G6, a good quality car for the $$$. If you really like the entry level Cadillac brand, you are going to have to wait a yr. for the next CTS.
GM: The next generation SUV's and Trucks will start arriving in January and continue all the way to the fall of this next yr. as 2007 models. The Saturn Aura and Sky will help Saturn out. Hummer is doing great. Buick has alot of interest in the Lucerne. Chevy has the Corvette, Impala, Monte Carlo, HHR, that will be high volume sellers. Cadillac is doing great with the DTS and STS. Pontiac has the Solstice, G6. The Torrent should do ok. Saab has the 9-3 and will continue to do ok. Saab also needs to be reworked with AWD cars and alot more technology for the money they want.
These are only my opinions, based with some facts.
Rocky
The Big 3 are making huge improvements, but still have lots of redesigns to go.
Saab has alot of good heritage. Saab is a Scandanavian brand that has a good reputation for overall quality. I would take the performance levels of my trims to meet or exceed Cadillac in some areas. Add a little sport to the luxury.
GM could have 2 premium brands. However you have to distinguish them.
Cadillac would be my Lexus/Mercedes competitor. Saab would be my BMW Jet Fighter ! :surprise:
How would you fix Saab Rocky ????
#1 Longest factory warranty in the world ! AWD is standard on all models !
#2 Saab 9-3--> Keep the new Turbo V-6. However increase the boost of the Turbo to produce a mininum of 300 hp. Saab 9-3 would not only be regarded as the safest car in it's class, but one of them in the world at any price. Add every safety feature imaginable. Class leading interior/exterior refinement. The car needs a Quattro like All-Wheel Drive only system, and to also tell the world subaru isn't the only car company that makes AWD. The choice of a 6-speed automatic and/or manuel option will be a standard feature.
The car needs "creature features" that meet and exceed the best from Europe and Asia.
#3 Saab 9-5 Flagship--> All of the features from above only a few steps further in Technology and Creature Features. Twin Turbo the 4 cylinder to 350hp
#4 Saab 9-5-->VIGGEN (Low-Volume-->Brand Image Car) Will be a Super Sport/Luxury Sedan that has a Twin Turbo (Hybrid Performance Enhancing SAAB V-6 Engine) Producing 500-600 Horsepower. Has not only Quattro like All-Wheel Drive, but also adds 4-Wheel Steering for superior handling and control. No wood, but sporty aluminum trim. (A 8-Speed baught from Lexus) F-1 inspired automatic. A fighter pilot inspired guage cluster with a enhanced boost guage and instrument cluster. The best creature and safety features on the market. Price it at $60K MSRP and watch the Asians and Europeans
#5 Saab 9-3 Convertible and Viggen Model
(same as above depending on trim models) Convertible Finally gets a Hard Top to retract. :shades:
#6 Saab 9-7x Needs unique features such as height adjustable suspension that can be lowered for a more sedan like ride, or raised to crawl rocks and/or scale mountains and deep snow. Get rid of the 5.3 engine and install one of the above engines. needs a low range on the AWD system. Needs segment leading build quality and safety technology to distinguish it from the other GM line-ups. Also needs to be the most sophisticated in creature feature technology out of the mid size SUV's.
#7 Rebadge a Chevy Avalanche/Caddy EXT Utility Pick-up and call it a Saab 9-9x or some other name/number. (Saab Turbo V-6 Engine) It would have sportier handling characteristics than a EXT or Avalanche. Unique feature like height adjustable suspension, low range on the AWD system for going places where only Range Rovers would go. State of the Art safety and creature features. etc etc.
Finally scrap the Subaru carbon copy 9-2x line-up. It's ugly anyways. :P
This is (What I Would do) if I was in charge of the Saab brand. Saab seriously needs some desperate measures, to help restore that famous Scandanavian Image and a respectable sales volume for General Motors.
--------->Rocky
My fathers local union president from coopersville, was quoted.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AMERICAS_SUMMIT?SITE=MIDTN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DE- FAULT
It's getting voted on finally. It will be interesting to see if it passes. I personally expect it to pass in a landslide. So does my POPS.
Not to mention Goodyear is already in talks about it's upcoming contract. These might seem like small concessions, but I feel this is only the beginning.
One employee at GM said he wanted to vote no on the healthcare concessions because he felt the Government should of stepped in and address the health care cost issue. He however said he is going to give in and vote yes.
I can see why he feels that way. He's put between a Rock and a Hardplace. :lemon:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~READ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Some analysts said Toyota bought the Fuji shares in another step to help the U.S. carmaker, which is struggling with sluggish sales.
Earlier this year, a decision by Toyota to raise its vehicle prices in the U.S. market was seen by many as an attempt to help GM become more competitive.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And you guys thought GM and Toyota weren't sleeping togeather in the same bed ! :P
Rocky
I'm not sure they're sleeping but they might be "spending weekends" with Toyota when Toyo feels they have something to gain in the long run. I believe HoToy give nothing away. They're out for themselves only.
The place to start would be the rate of exchange problem that would increase the pricing of HoToy and others in this country.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
They said they are increasing the price of their cars to help GM gain some of it's market share back. I wished they would just say there "I do's" and get hitched. I however would feel sorry for everyone else in the auto industry, because they would be togeather "BY FAR" the biggest and most power company to ever exist. :shades: New Company Name TOYGEN MOTORS ????