Toyota on the mend?

imidazol97

Supplier's fault has been an excuse heard often from Toyoto with their problems. This is probably a design flaw or spec flaw. The supplier gives what Toyoto specifies and Toyoto is responsbile for checking on the compliance of item supplied.

It's probably a minimalization in design.

nippononly

It is like the pics gagrice used to post of 20-year-old 4Runners with rusted fender flares. These trucks are 20 years old people!!!

NOTHING stays rust-free forever, especially in wet and snowy climates. The only rustproof places are Cali, Texas, and Florida. :shades:

british_rover

Florida not so much plenty of saltwater to rust cars in most of florida.

nippononly

OK, forget Florida then. But you can add in the Valley of the Sun in Arizona in Florida's place. Phoenix, Tucson, etc. Of course there the problem is sun-damaged paint, not rust! :-P

mackabee

Yeah forget Florida and California too! There's lots of ocean out there and plenty of salt to rust trucks.
Mack :lemon:

british_rover

Nah plenty of Cali is far away from the ocean and warm enough that you get either little snow or none at all.

In Florida the most you can ever be away from the ocean is about a 100 miles.

gagrice

I thought it was a 1994 4Runner.... :shades:

My son says it is out along side the house needing a new engine after 165k miles. He is about to give up on Toyota.

bumpy

Your son must be the first person in history to kill a 22R in only 165,000 miles. (If it's a four-banger. He would be about the 7 millionth to kill the cruddy V6 that Toyota used back in those days.)

gagrice

It is a 1993 4RN whatever that means. I just pulled up the scan of the title.

bumpy

That's the right code for the 22R. He must have run it on Bunker C or something. :P

british_rover

and never changed the oil, oil filter, air filter, drove the truck upside down and washed it with radioactive salt water. Seriously I don't think I have ever seen a 22R or 22RE fail before 200,000 miles unless there were some extenuating circumstances.

The highest mileage 22R I can remember was in a 2wd 4runner and last time I worked on it over three years ago had 280,000 miles on it. I am pretty sure it was a 1998 and he changed the oil every 5,000 miles with Castrol 10w30.

gagrice

Alaska and Alaskans are pretty tough on cars. It was rusted and had 135k when he bought it as a repo from the credit union.

british_rover

and the other shoe drops...

I think a rusted out, repoed vehicle that was definitely abused even for Alaskan standards would qualify as extenuating circumstances.

otto8

As ALWAYS.........toyota gets a pass ...........or another excuse!

stever

Ah, Alaska's roads aren't so tough. You can find worse in Tellico. I drove my little '82 FWD Tercel all over the state for 17 years. There was a rust recall on the rear trailing arms. Often it was more overloaded than this:

lemko

Yeah, an American car can start off life as a police car, then be sold to a taxi fleet, then used in stunt show, be subsequently used in a demolition derby, be in a monster truck show, and then used as a car bomb and import lovers would say, "Those aren't extenuating circumstances! American cars are crap!"

louiswei

Nah, American cars aren't crap, they are just crappier than imports...

:P

nwng

that's just a prop for the transformer movie before gm inks the deal to provide all the vehicles.

nippononly

Now THERE was a good-looking car!

If only Toyota could make 'em all look that good these days...

louiswei

Both General Motors and Toyota have released their global sales figures for the first quarter of 2008, and for those who like to keep tabs on which automaker is the biggest in the world when it comes to sales, we have new news. The last time we convened for this discussion, both GM and Toyota were in a dead heat for the title of World's Best-Selling Automaker in 2007, though GM was eventually found to have sold more by the slimmest of margins. It seems that this time Toyota has firmly taken the lead in Q1 2008, selling 2.41 million vehicles worldwide to GM's 2.25 million. The Detroit News notes that Toyota also outsold GM in Q1 2007 before GM went on to win the year outright, which just goes to show that things can change over the next nine months. GM is actually enjoying record sales outside of the U.S. in the Asia Pacific region, Europe and Latin American, Africa and the Middle East. Its own domestic market is what continues to drag down GM's numbers, with sales off 10% in the U.S. through March. Sales in the U.S. for Toyota through March were also down, but only by 4.4%. We reiterate like we always do when talk of this global sales crown comes up – it means very little in the grand scheme of things who sells more cars globally. But titles like this can be used to good effect in marketing and for bolstering an automaker's internal morale, so don't expect either one to admit they don't want the mantle of World's Best-Selling Automaker.

Source: Autoblog

Let's see if Toyota can go on to win the annual #1.

mackabee

Toyota DID beat GM in 2007. They put the figures out there and then retracted them to prevent any political on consumer backlash.
Mack

grandtotal

Let me see, who am I going to believe? Someone who posts on an internet forum or Toyota? Hmm, tough one, but I think I'll go with Toyota.

motownusa

That is a pretty significant lead. Last year this time Toyota was ahead by only 30,000 vehicle. It will be extremely unlikely this year for GM to make a comeback given their current situation with strikes and plants closing down.

mackabee

Well, I do work for a Toyota dealership and have access to plenty of information that you don't. So if you want to call me a liar which you just did then believe what you want to. Have a nice day.
Mack

grandtotal

OK, firstly you have no idea what information I may have access to. Secondly I was not calling you a liar because that implies deliberate intention to deceive which I don't think is the case.

louiswei

OK, firstly you have no idea what information I may have access to.

So what kind information you have access to? At least we know mackabee works at a Toyota dealership so right now IMO he is more convincing than you.

grandtotal

So, you think that Toyota may be lying about their sales numbers for political reasons. This despite the fact that they have shareholders who tend to take a dim view of lying by companies these days. Let's for one moment suppose that this is the case, having done that they then tell their US dealers the truth confident in the knowledge that none of their employees will leak this 'true' information. Well, they really misread one of their dealers because Mackabee has let the truth slip out.

mackabee

They didn't hide this fact from anyone. Automotive news reported it.
Mack :shades:

mackabee

"Let me see, who am I going to believe? Someone who posts on an internet forum or Toyota? Hmm, tough one, but I think I'll go with Toyota. "

You said it.
:shades:

kdhspyder

Actually over the last 4 years Toyota has had the least number of recalls of all the major 4 makers. On balance though last year GM had the lowest number, just below Toyota. Ford and Chrysler seemingly can't get out of their own way still.

However on balance most of these recalls from all makers are on vehicles built in the late 90's through 2005. But what many of the mudslingers don't comprehend is that TREAD has changed the entire automotive environment. Google it.

stever

Slump results in a five month delay in production start-up.

Toyota delays planned start for Mississippi plant (Reuters)

nippononly

The article mentions they are setting aside even more money for cash incentives for SUVs and pick-ups. Whoa, they are definitely going to reach levels tht are very much unprecedented for Toyota.

gagrice

Maybe their supply of the big stuff is where GM was in 2005 when they were just trying to get rid of inventory. They got that big new Tundra factory in San Antonio to justify to the honchos in Japan. What do you mean you spent billions on a plant for trucks nobody in the USA wants? Welcome to the fickled American buying public.

Just put those trucks and big SUVs in a storage yard. In a couple years it will be a gold mine.

nippononly

Well, to be fair nobody wants the American trucks either. GM is up to $4000 and climbing on the Silverado and Tahoe, Ford and Dodge are desperately trying to figure out how to clear out '07 and '08 inventories to make room for the revised '09 models.

I suppose Toyota will try to match them, but in the end everyone will lose, especially Ford, for whom the F-150 was the biggest cash cow in the barn and who has reinvested in their cow right at the moment half of everyone has stopped buying cows that large.

That reminds me, I was going to look up this Cobalt XFE they keep advertising on TV - 36 mpg? Is that for real? If so, kudos to GM for hearing the message and doing something about it. Now it's time for Toyota to get its heart and hands back in the FE game and produce some gas models with more mpgs that cost less than those hybrids...

Edit...well, indeed it seems GM has upped the FE ante: the Cobalt 5 speed manual matches the Corolla 5 speed for FE! The automatic is still quite a bit lower-rated, but even so they didn't compete so closely before. I wonder what GM changed on the Cobalt. Impressive. Of course, the new Corolla didn't help itself when it DROPPED two mpg points from the old '08 to the revised '09 model.

gagrice

There is a lesson to be learned by all of the Big 4. The first to market with a full sized truck and SUV with a small diesel engine will be back on top. No doubt in my mind. A full sized PU getting 30+ MPG on the highway will sell as fast as they can build them. They need to use a 5 or 6 cylinder diesel under 3.0 Liter. They have plenty of power to pull a 1/2 ton PU frame and a good sized trailer.

bumpy

I wonder what GM changed on the Cobalt.

Low rolling resistance tires and revised fuel maps, mainly. They didn't do anything on the automatics (yet).

nippononly

Explain, explain: revised fuel maps?

bumpy

The cell values in the ECU injector mappings. The computer has a set of values for volume and duration for each fuel injector, and it taps various sets of those values for varying conditions related to throttle input. What they most likely did was lean out the transition states (light throttle to full, mid-throttle to lift-off, etc.) to reduce the amount of fuel used, at the cost of less exuberant performance characteristics (aka "peppiness"). The tricky part for the manufacturer, versus the aftermarket tuning shop, is not leaning out the air-fuel ratio enough to violate the NOx standards.

They could have done this stuff any old time they felt like it, but they had no real incentive until now.

nippononly

that in the latest APEAL survey (the survey that basically asks customers how much they liked their purchases and how likely they would be to buy the same vehicle again) results from JD Power, Toyota as a brand was way below average? Other less-than-savory results: among luxury brands, Lexus was last except for Infiniti and Acura (if you count Acura), falling behind MB, BMW, Jag, and Porsche. 3 of its biggest-volume models, Corolla, Camry, and RAV4, weren't even in the top 3 in their respective categories.

At least Tacoma, Tundra, and Sienna made into the top 3 (in what are not large categories, especially vans), but Honda beat Tacoma and Sienna.

The good news: Toyota did manage to get 3 best-in-class with the FJ Cruiser, Sequoia, and Lexus IS. Not exactly the meat and potatoes of Toyota's profit base, but at least it wasn't empty handed...

http://www.jdpower.com/autos/articles/2008-APEAL-Study-Results

kdhspyder

Yes strange grouping of 'I love my ________'.

I think that there's a disconnect here somehow and I'm not sure what it is exactly. The 8 basic vehicles are the Camry, Corolla, RAV, Prius, Sienna, Highlander, Tundra and Tacoma. The 4 Runner would have been there but it's going the way of the other midsized BOFs.

The Corolla, Camry and Prius are all at or near record sales levels. The RAV is OK but down a little. The Sienna is a solid 1st or 2nd in the industry...but down a little. The new Highlander also seems very solid...but down a little. The Tacoma is generally considered the best small pickup in NA...but it's down a little.

2nd Qtr Summary and Outlook...( personal viewpoint of course )
Small cars
The Yaris is benefitting from a massive surge toward small vehicles. +40%
The Scions are doing decently and will likely beat last year's down numbers and possibly approach the best numbers of 2 yrs ago ( 150,000+ units ). +5%
The Corolla has regained its stride after the 3 month model changeover and in both of the last two months outsold the Camry solidly. After the Prius the Corolla seems to have the shortest time on the lot which is really impressive given the volumes involved. Spot shortages seem to be commonplace. I'd expect it to be a solid first or 2nd place auto at year end with about 400,000 to 450,000 units. It and the Civic will battle for supremacy IMO. A BIG advantage it has over the Civic is that there is much more capacity available to meet demand.
The Prius is and has been a winner since it's debut. 180,000 units is likely again, limited only by battery availability. It's the icon and still the best hybrid on the road. Production is expected to increase 60% next year but we may not get 'our share' due to currency problems. If fuel stays at $4-ish it may remain sold out all through it's short 09 MY. 09's are due here abt 10-1 but the Gen3 '10s should hit next summer ( announcement in January at NAIAS ).

Midsized / Large Autos:
Camry is the center of everything Toyota in NA. Bringing out the 09s early again like the 07s were early was a great marketing move giving a airbrush to an unchanged vehicle. It will probably lose volume to the rest of the industry beginning now as the 'Camry' Solara sales finish up. The Venza probably will not be a 'Camry' Venza so the 'Camry' model will lose about 45000 units of sales annually due to the elimination of the Solara. OTOH... with the way fuel prices are going, the defectors from the BOF segment are NOT automatically stepping down to a bare bones Yaris. The Camry may catch a lot of these defectors in its net. Word is that in addition to the 100K units offloaded to the Subaru plant that Toyota is looking at having Princeton make Camry's as well. The Camry Hybrid seems solid but also limited by battery availability. IMO it's the future for the next decade.
The Avalon is suffering from being big. The V6 is world class but the model has been moved upscale to near-Lexus in price and target. Most buyers don't even think of the $28000 XL trim. The XLE V6 Camry is a better value. Effectively it's a $34000-$38000 vehicle. It does act as a foot soldier though covering the flank of the ES350.

Utility Vehicles:
xB... see Scions
Matrix... the non-hybrid Prius. It could and should be a great hit as a less expensive option to it's hybrid 5-door hatchback cousin. It's slow to move in comparison to the show-stopping Prius and it's Corolla sibling. It should do a lot better but it doesn't have the glitz either in features or fuel economy.
The RAV4 is a solid, affordable, reliable, fun-to-drive entry level utility vehicle. Sales are starting to level off after two full years of growth and it's brushed with the tar of being a 'utility vehicle'. In fact it gets only slightly worse fuel economy than the Camry or Matrix and it's bigger than both. Maybe it's more to do with the overall economy than the vehicle itself. The new RAV plant in Canada this fall may allow some ordering flexibility and potentially increased sales. Prices range from ~$23000 to just under $30000.
.
.
Gap ( Venza due here )
.
.
The Highlander surprised me by seeming to be pricey when it first came out. In fact it isn't that much more in MSRP than the outgoing Gen1. A FWD V6 lists for under $30000 today. The big benefit, for those that need more room, is that it's a lot bigger, more powerful and more comfortable yet it has the same fuel economy as the Gen 1. With the new world class 3.5L V6 it should be very competitive with all others if utility vehicles get out of the doldrums.
The Sienna is due for a change in the Fall ( Sept? ). It's past its 5th anniversary. It's still right at the top of the list ( there's really only two now ) of all minivan shoppers. IMO though the first vehicle maker that can provide a 30+ mpg minivan will OWN that market segment. Some sort of hybrid version is desperately needed here. Families needing to save fuel costs would snap these up if priced like the TCH at a small to moderate premium.
The FJ and the 4Runner. The 4runner is too good a franchise to let slip away but this entire segment is past DOA. The funerals are being scheduled and some are in the ground already. At the minimum I think both will slip back to being just what they were originally; i.e. offroad utility vehicles for specific uses. It's days as an image-building commuter vehicle for the 'active lifestylers' are finished.
Surprisingly I think that the Sequoia like the Suburban may have a longer life as a super-sized minivan. It can do more. It can do more than a Sienna or a Highlander or a 4Runner and it's at least as nice if not nicer. For those not so concerned with fuel prices the 16 mpg rating is not that much of a concern. The Tahoe and or Yukon may disappear in favor of the GM lambda triplets but the Suburban will stay. If the Sequoia can get a diesel option and jump it's fuel rating to 25-ish mpg it would be a solid long term player ( biodiesel? )
Land Cruiser.... 'If you need to ask the price.....'

kdhspyder

Trucks
The Tacoma is also due for an update soon. Maybe next year. New safety features are being added as standard equipment a la the Tundra in the new 09s arriving now. It remains the best small truck on the market ( in the world? ). A diesel version would make it near perfect. Trucks will always be needed and this one is perfectly placed to catch defectors from the Full Sized segment.

The Tundra is a long term project now IMO. Skyrocketing sales and spectacular shows are a thing of the past it would seem. Just surviving in a tornado would seem a more accurate picture. Ford and GM have essentially cut their capacity in half and pushed back further development. Chrysler may not survive. What used to be a 2.5 million unit market may end up as a 1.2 million unit market.
As of today the annual rate of sales is only about 1.6 million units for the entire industry. Ford and GM used to sell almost 1.0 million units themselves annually.
Ford.........550,000 units
GM..........650,000
Dodge......260,000
Toyota.....150,000

The days of the $45-$65000 truck as image-builder probably passed in May 2008. GM and Ford both indicated their intentions to shrink. What we may see are trucks that are bought to do 'truck things' nothing more. Hello 1974. Medium-sized affordable diesels seem to be a natural next step for all makers.

As many have noted previously we probably reached a watershed in the NA Automotive industry in 2nd Qtr 2008. Epochal changes are taking place and few of the vehicle makers are/were ready for them.

louiswei

Great analysis and agree with pretty much all of it.

The bottom line is that Toyota is hurting because it is a full-line auto maker unlike Subaru, Honda and Mazda. That's it.

Takes out the SUVs and trucks then Toyota's sale should look just as impressive as anybody.

nippononly

Ummm, I'm not too sure about that. I think car sales are down at Toyota as well. It's not just truck sales taking a hit.

Meanwhile, Honda's car sales continue to go up in a market going down down down. So Toyota has to watch its flank on cars more than ever. Hyundai also posted sales numbers that were slightly up, I believe. Another flank for Toyota to watch. Even Nissan's car numbers were down less than Toyota's, although their overall numbers stunk because their truck sales just fell right off a cliff, as badly or worse than the domestics'.

And while Prius and Corolla (and Civic over at Honda) are so hot they can't keep them in stock, dealers have plenty of Camry hybrids. Maybe this model is just suffering from the malaise that has now afflicted the midsize segment in general, or maybe 34 mpg just isn't good enough now. It DOES seem like kdh mentioned: that people coming out of gas pigs like large SUVs and stuff but still wanting the space would be attracted to a model like the Camry hybrid.

The FJ and the 4Runner were cool and all, but I don't really expect either one to survive after 2010 unless Toyota has an extremely fuel-efficient, top notch diesel ready for them by then.

I can't understand what is holding Toyota back from offering the Camry hybrid's powertrain in the Sienna van. The Sienna definitely needs that kind of a shot in the arm. Yes, it would be a bit slower than the regular V-6 van, but gee whiz, it would probably provide 50% or more in gas savings in driving in town.

louiswei

Ummm, I'm not too sure about that. I think car sales are down at Toyota as well. It's not just truck sales taking a hit.

Nope.

For passenger cars alone, Toyota sales are up 4.4% in June and 0.4% Year-to-Date. Here's the link for it:

http://www.clublexus.com/forums/showthread.php?t=364484

Scroll down to post 4 for the detailed Toyota sales numbers.

To me, to be able to have the sales up 0.4% for the year with the battery shortage and Corolla's model switch is pretty impressive. Lexus took a big hit in the passenger car sales but generally speaking all the luxury brand sales are down so that's not a surprise. Also, not having a single new product this year didn't help as well.

gagrice

The FJ and the 4Runner were cool and all, but I don't really expect either one to survive after 2010 unless Toyota has an extremely fuel-efficient, top notch diesel ready for them by then.


A 4Runner with a 4 cylinder diesel would be a practical vehicle. The FJ is a joke in my book. After having a PU with suicide doors, never again. Not to mention all the blind spots the Cruiser has. You want a great off road vehicle get a Wrangler.

gagrice

Do you suppose the lack of batteries for the Hybrids is planned obsolescence or just poor planning? They do not have enough to even match last years sales. The Prius is off 25% in June. My understanding is the TCH is not a good seller. Only the 4 cylinder Camry is carrying the load. And the Corolla has passed them up.

Another telling thing. Those wanting a Large SUV are still buying. The Sequoia sales are UP 40% and the new Land Cruiser is doing good as well. The little tinny RAV4 and Highlanders are not selling well at all. They represent mediocrity in the world of SUVs.

larsb

Gary, you have latched onto this "battery shortage" and turned it into your mantra. You really need to focus less on it.

It's definitely not "planned obsolescence" because that would be idiotic.

I think no one, Toyota included, could have predicted and planned for gas to be as high as it is. Did anyone, anywhere expect this? So how can you logically hold 'Yota execs responsible for the battery shortage based on demand that NO ONE ON THE PLANET EARF saw coming? Are they supposed to be prophets?

Name me one company which planned so well to know that gas would be this expensive and smaller cars and hybrids would be so hot right now? Not VW - if they had expected it, the 2009 50-state diesels would have been the 2008 50-state diesels. Not GM. Not Nissan. Not Honda. Who?

TOKYO: Toyota is struggling to keep up with booming demand for hybrid vehicles because it is unable to make enough batteries that are key components of the popular "green" cars, a senior executive said Monday.

The battery crunch is likely to continue for the rest of the year, since new lines cannot be added to increase production until 2009, said Takeshi Uchiyamada, executive vice president of Toyota Motor, who oversees production at the leading Japanese automaker.

"Hybrids are selling so well we are doing all we can to increase production," he said. "We need new lines."

The demand is too high for the planning. That's all. Nothing deeper than that. Nothing conspiratorial about it all.

Get over it, Gary.

kdhspyder

Like every other vehicle maker in this market I think that they got caught flat-footed by the surge to small vehicles and hybrids. Luckily for them they hit the nail squarely with the rollout of the Corolla which is made here and fairly simple to produce. The Prius is made overseas with a long supply line so making changes on the fly is a lot more difficult ( larsb post just above ). It appears to me that they planned to ship the same amount as last year, about 180,000 units, but didn't foresee a jump in demand to well over 200,000 units. Their 'pull' type of system keeps inventory and production costs to a minimum but does risk the loss of some sales when demand spikes....especially from a distance.

The TCH is doing just fine. Like the Prius it's limited by battery production/availability. It's nowhere near as visible to the public as the unique-looking Prius is but it moves off the lot faster than any other Camry trim level. I'd say 8-15 days on the lot is typical now.

The RAV is what it is. It's an entry level utility vehicle with no other aspirations. Entry level buyers understand that. Many have no need for any extra frills like sunroofs or leather or 6 CD changers or anything like that. It's basic. You can't accuse it of being what it's intended to be. Your accusatory 'mediocrity' is someone else's 'bargain'. It and the CR-V are the two best in the segment.

nippononly

No no, louis, those are DOWN. Toyota car sales are DOWN 4.4% for June, 0.4% for the year. Not bad in a WAY down market, but not as good as Honda, Nissan, or Hyundai (all up). I will accept the premise that Prius supply constrictions and the model turnover for Corolla did suppress those numbers a little. Here's the link at autonews (requires registration):

http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080701/ANA02/673241109/1078- -

If you look at the actual numbers, you will realize that for car sales totals, they forgot to put the little '-' sign in, but the numbers are down.

gagrice: Toyota has relied for way too long on Panasonic to deliver them the hybrid battery packs, and no matter how much they lean on Panasonic they can't get any more battery packs right now. That is why they announced recently that they will build additional production capacity to produce the battery packs in-house. It's thanks to that decision that they estimate they can have 60% more available by next year, as kdhspyder mentioned.

I noticed today that the Ford Escape hybrid is rated 34/31, almost identical ratings to the Camry hybrid. Maybe a lot of those folks coming out of gas hogs are just switching to a smaller, hybrid SUV, and Camry isn't catching as many of those sales as we think. I know Escape hybrid demand has been strong for some time, and is rising I believe.

louiswei

If you look at the actual numbers, you will realize that for car sales totals, they forgot to put the little '-' sign in, but the numbers are down.

No, it's actually up. up 4.4% and 0.4% is after taken the total sales day into consideration. If it is down then there will be a '-' sign in front of it.

So in other words, yes, the total sales are down but the daily average sales is actually up.