Toyota on the mend?

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Comments

  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Your statement may be a bit strong, kdh. Not only do they STILL have $5000 cash incentives on '07s here at the end of March, but they are about to cut back production because of excess inventory and a weak outlook for the Tundra. In many ways the new Tundra is easily the weakest-performing Toyota model in many years.

    Of course, we all know what they were thinking when they built the SA plant, and I don't think that is a long-term mistake. But they sure did pick the worst timing to do it, eh? Hindsight, of course, is 20/20.

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Yep as noted this year is going to be bloody. It's a good thing T has a ton of cash available to invest while not expecting a huge immediate return. I think that even at 150,000 units annually at SA that the plant will normally pay for itself in 5-7 years. It's good not to need to depend on trucks for survival ( that's the role of the Camry and Corolla....and Prius ).

    After all the SA plant 'only' cost $1.2 Billion. After 5-7 years they should have put through abut 1.0 million units. Amortization of the original investment therefore would only be $1200 per unit. That's very nominal in vehicles going for $30000, $40000 and $50000. Risky yes but not horrendously so. T still has a good balance in its lineup.

    The jump in Prius production next year should bring in mega-profits as it enters its 6th year.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    It's good not to need to depend on trucks for survival ( that's the role of the Camry and Corolla....and Prius ).

    Are you trying to tell us that Toyota makes as much money selling 150k Prius as they do selling 150k Tundra trucks? Because the Japanese are such cloak and dagger operations. We will probably not know how much the Prius makes. What happened to the plan to build the Prius in the USA? With 100k less Tundras being built they have capacity in the SA plant. I know that Toyota snubbed Ahnold when he went to Japan to try and get the Prius built in CA. If Americans had the common sense to only buy cars that are at least assembled in the USA, how would Toyota fare?
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    No what I meant was that everything in NA revolves around the Camry. Everything is done to protect this franchise and keep it as the main money maker. The Corolla is the good soldier that has always done this grunt work on behalf of the Camry but recently the Corolla has become a huge printing press for profits in its own right. Now the Yaris serves as the 'protector' of the Corolla. It serves no other purpose.

    The Prius is joining the two main money makers in the last two years. It is afterall just a 'Matrix' with a $3000 battery pack that sells for $3000 to $10000 higher than a Matrix.

    Oh, BTW the Tundra/Sequoia also make some money but not like the other 3. It's a good position to be in where the most vulnerable product isn't so important that it's a do or die situation as regards profitability ( Chrysler/Ford ). Long term profitability will come in time as volume accumulates.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Not only do they STILL have $5000 cash incentives on '07s here at the end of March,

    Edmund's has the 08 CrewMax Limited under invoice at So CA dealers. I imagine they would give you a real deal on an 07 right now. Looking at used Tundra PU trucks and I would say they hold their value pretty well. In my area there are 117 listed used starting at $19k with 6500 miles. That is a double cab SR5. 08 with same eq is $23k.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    BTW the Tundra/Sequoia also make some money but not like the other 3

    When you find a sucker to pay MSRP they make a LOT of money on the Sequoia & Tundra. Same goes for all brands and models.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Nobody pays anywhere near sticker for a Tundra. Everyone of them is a giveaway. It's just a unit to help Toyota, about the same as a Corolla or a Yaris. We as the largest Toyota truck retailer in the mid Atl region just turn them over as fast as we can. You're a buyer? You're done.

    Now T does make a lot more than the retailers do but they also have the investments to amortize and Marketing to support. I'm guessing tho that from the sheer size of the marketing effort that most of the massive profits on the vehicles are being spent to buy its way into the Big 3, for the future.
  • lemkolemko Member Posts: 15,261
    ...a plain old basic work truck, how would I fare with a Tundra vs. an F-150 or Silverado? Only have one requirement - auto transmission. Don't care if the truck even has a radio. I think I'd still come out ahead with either the Chevy or Ford despite the $5K incentive.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    "The Prius is joining the two main money makers in the last two years. It is afterall just a 'Matrix' with a $3000 battery pack that sells for $3000 to $10000 higher than a Matrix."

    Just a Matrix with a battery pack???!! C'mon Bob, you've been hitting the bottle again? Or smoking some wacky tobacky??
    :shades:
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Maybe the latter rather than the former...

    But look at the two together. No they're not the same style but...

    ..the Pkg 2 Prius is a 5 door hatch with VSC, 6 airbags, AUX, SKS and backup camera and lists for about $23900
    ..the new Matrix is also a 5 door hatch with 6 airbags, AUX, VSC optional and lists for about $20000.

    the Prius is a lot closer to the Matrix than to anyother vehicle in the lineup. When people say that there is no non-hybrid Prius I say look at the Matrix. Same size (approx), same configuration, similar options, similar price point.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    I would go for the Corolla but not the Matrix.
    mACK
  • cooterbfdcooterbfd Member Posts: 2,770
    Um, I know I'm a little late w/ this but the '08 CTS has the 304 hp DI V-6. That is as mainstream as a 5 Series or Lexus.
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    Just because they both are hatchbacks with the 5-door configuration and about the same size doesn't mean the Prius is a Matrix with batteries!! Similar options? Geez, just about all Toyotas are having the similar options. As the matter of fact, almost (that's the key word here) all the options that are on the ES350 can be found on the IS350 on top of they also share the same configuration (sedan) and similar price point (~$40k) does that make them similar products?

    The first question to ask here is: Do the Prius and Matrix share the platform? If not then there is no need to dig deeper.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    "As the matter of fact, almost (that's the key word here) all the options that are on the ES350 can be found on the IS350 on top of they also share the same configuration (sedan) and similar price point (~$40k) does that make them similar products?"

    Yes, it does. Only enthusiasts will know or care that the IS is rear drive and the ES is front drive. At anything less than 7/10, which is all the driving that 95% of everyone ever does, no-one will know the difference between the two. This is the dilemma that companies like Lexus face when trying to decide how to spend their R&D dollars.

    Matrix is on the Corolla platform of course. Don't know about the Prius, but what kdh said is essentially true. Same-size cars with very similar performance and features, one with a big battery pack in the boot (and consequently an extra 300 pounds in weight).

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    The first statement was hyperbole of course in order to make a simple point. In the entire Toyota lineup the Matrix is the non-hybrid vehicle that's closest to the Prius. It's been said that it was brilliant of Toyota not to have a non-hybrid Prius for comparison purposes. True that, but it also creates mismatches when the Prius is compared to other vehicles. Camry vs TCH..Highlander vs HH... ??? vs Prius.

    The closest gasser to the Prius is the Matrix. The Camry is too big and the Corolla is too small. Neither the Camry nor the Corolla can perform the special duties that a 5 door hatch can. But the Matrix can.
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    This is the dilemma that companies like Lexus face when trying to decide how to spend their R&D dollars.

    The ES/IS entry level lineup is great for Lexus. The ES is the soft-riding glorified Camry which doesn't cost Lexus too much to develop and there are plenty of people who like the Buick-like ride. The IS on the other hand is Lexus' 3-series fighter and draws enthusiasts into the showroom.

    Okay now I understand what kdh was trying to say. To a customer's point of view the Prius and Matrix (or even Corolla) are indeed similar products. However, to TMC that's a different story if they do no share the platform because without it that means no reduction in cost and can't share the production line so on the manufacturer's point of view these two are very different products.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    " At anything less than 7/10, which is all the driving that 95% of everyone ever does, no-one will know the difference between the two. This is the dilemma that companies like Lexus face when trying to decide how to spend their R&D dollars. "

    Oh yes they will. You'd have to be brain dead not to notice the difference between an ES and an IS. The ES no road feel, kind of makes you wonder if it's actually on the road. The IS on the other hand gives you lots of road feel and handling.
    Mack
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    Oh mack, come on, I am pretty sure you see a lot of "brain dead" people come and go in your dealership right? ;)
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    constitute the vast majority of our great American driving force, sad to say.

    It is interesting that Lexus has chosen to make the current ES the last to be a gussied-up Camry, in light of recent discussion. I don't think it's because of criticism of the driving characteristics of the car itself however, but more to do with professional reviewers clamoring ever louder with the cry: "why buy an ES (unless you are a badge snob) when you can get a Camry Limited, the same car with a slightly different nose, for thousands of dollars less??"

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    Every day.
    You should see some of the ones we got in this week. Our store sent out this "buyback" letter to hundreds of our customers so that we may "buyback" their current vehicle at top dollar and sell them one at "employee" prices. We (the sales force) hate this kind of promotion because instead of sending it to customer who've had their cars longer thant 4or 5 years, they send them to people that just bought about a year or two. What we end up is with people that are way upside down, want to lower their payments and get a newer car (I never understood that one) etc.et.c.e.t.c.
    Mack :shades:
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    That would be a Camry XLE or Avalon Limited.
    Mack
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    I am kind of skeptical about this move by Lexus. Yeah sure it'll give the brand a bit more credibility (I say screw the reviewers) but they might lose some of the ES core buyers (those who like Buick-like rides) in the process. Also, what's the point to keep the ES in the lineup if it goes RWD, wouldn't that conflict with the GS line?
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Thank you! Yes, lots of potential conflicts there, and more's the point I was trying to make: automakers have to make very tough decisions about where to spend their R&D dollars.

    In the case of Lexus, I would say they are smarting from all the criticism that the GS is just one big snooze-mobile, after Lexus went around trumpeting what a great new sport sedan it was when they introduced it.

    So they will introduce a midsize RWD car that has the heritage of snooze-mobile (the new RWD ES in 2011 or so), and that will leave space for the GS to "be all that it can be" as a razor-sharp sport sedan! (as if)

    There will probably be more profits for them all around, as they might actually sell a few GSs if they can improve that car's performance and driving characteristics, and they can raise the price of the ES while retaining a lot of its traditional buyers. But it's all a risk in the end.

    Mack: thanks for the clarification re: Avalon Limited and Camry XLE. In the past there have been Limited packages for Camry XLE V-6s, IIRC. There isn't one now?

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    But it's all a risk in the end.

    Definitely.

    Under only one condition that the ES going RWD will be beneficial for Lexus that's to be able to keep its Buick-like rides and the maintain the pricing to be around $40k. In other words, the "brain dead" customers should not be able to detect that the ES has gone RWD. Also, I have no doubt in Lexus' ability of creating a credible 5-series fighter in the next GS but I do doubt their willingness. With the ES going RWD the next GS better be "all that it can be" because if not, instead it'll be "all the irrelevant as it can be"...

    In all fairness, the current GS is not a bad car, it is just so mediocre in just about everything. I have to agree that it was a mistake for Lexus to hype it up like they did during the introduction.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    I don't recall ever having a Camry Limited. We've had special editions like the 50th anniversary edition to commemorate Toyota's 50 years in the US. Why they didn't use the Land Cruiser is beyond me. That one was sold here in 1957. Go figure.
    The special edition Camrys are the only ones we get in the Pearl white.
    This reminds me of a story. Back in 1997 we had a Corolla DX which back then was the same as an LE but as Toyota likes to do to confuse the customers and the sales folks they scramble the letters every few years or so to keep us on our toes.
    Our GSM got creative and picked out a DX in Cashmere beige and sent it out to have leather, moonroof, alloy wheels, wood dash, gold package and rear spoiler. Marked it up to $20,990.00 and put it in the shoroom. The killer was he added an emblem from a 4runner limited to the back of the car. An elderly black couple came in a few days later and bought the thing at full pop. I did not sell it to them. A few months later they came back to trade it on another car. They were waaaayy upside down so they kept their Limited Corolla.
    Mack
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Yes, yes, YES! Wow, you and I are in 100% agreement on everything you said.

    I think they will move the GS up slightly in size, because it is clear there will never be anything remotely APPROACHING a sport LS, so the GS can fill two bills if you like: going up against the 5- and 7-series as a sort of tweener. However, I doubt their motivation to create a 5-series fighter every bit as much as you do. They have a lot of work to do to get the GS there.

    It is certain the brain dead to whom we refer are never going to detect the switch from FWD to RWD, and I am sure Lexus is mainly doing it to terminate the harping from the "gussied-up Camry" crowd.

    And while we are talking Lexus, I for one would like to see them drop the GX, which is so obviously a barely-improved and otherwise-rebadged 4Runner. And add manual-shift options to any and all -F models, starting with the IS which I am now seeing commercials for. And take the money saved from designing a next-gen GX and plow every cent into making the next-gen SC coupe a desirable car. Look at the delicious Mercedes coupes! There's no reason in the world Lexus couldn't have at least one, preferably two really nice cars in that vein.

    And whatever the Scion mavens are planning for the '09 model lineup, it can't happen fast enough. :sick:

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    What we end up is with people that are way upside down, want to lower their payments and get a newer car (I never understood that one)

    In that case you end up with Toyota management that are showing signs of being brain dead.

    I know for a fact that customers get upset when they try to trade in a 2 year old vehicle and the dealer lowballs them. I would have bought a new 2007 Denali if the trade-in were right on my 2005 GMC hybrid PU truck. Instead they offered me $7,000 less than I sold it for a year later. I took my cash and bought the new Sequoia at a fire sale price. GM lost a customer that was on their 5 truck looking to buy the 6th.
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    Yes, the GX needs to go, seriously...

    Here's what I want to see from the Lexus camp:

    1. Drop the GX, bring the RX up slightly in size to compete head to head with the X5 and introduced a compact crossover.

    2. Manual tranny throughout the IS line

    3. Manual tranny on the lower trim V6 GS

    4. Manual tranny on all -F cars

    5. Kill the current SC430 to end its misery and build the next SC based on the FT-HS. The second coupe can be the IS coupe/hardtop convertible, rumor has it that it'll be hitting the showroom floors next year.

    6. A dedicated hybrid model but please do not make a rebadged Prius...
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    That is an enormously misleading statement, as I'm sure you know. Some Lexus models in North America are just rebadged NA Toyota models, yes, which is why it will be very useful for Toyota PR when the RX and ES are redesigned as stand-alone Lexus models (and they cancel the stupid GX...and when will they finally admit it is a waste of time trying to sell the $65K Land Cruiser as a Toyota?).

    But in Japan, you can buy $75K (or more) Toyotas that dignitaries ride in. Not exactly your run-of-the-mill Toyotas, and certainly not ones you can buy here (mostly). They are designed with a specific goal in mind, and then built to a Lexus-specific spec that cars sold as Toyotas in the U.S. are not.

    As anything more than an appliance, the Prius is pathetic, which is why I am in full agreement that Toyota should NOT rebadge it as a Lexus.

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Toyota Division
    Toyota Division passenger cars recorded March sales of 114,897 units, up 1.5 percent from last March. Passenger-car sales were led by Camry, which posted best-ever March sales of 40,487, an increase of 3.2 percent over the same period last year. Camry Hybrid reported sales of 6,930 units in March, up 45 percent over March 2007. The Prius hybrid gas-electric mid-size sedan posted best-ever March sales of 20,635, an increase of 16.0 percent from last March. Yaris reported all-time best-ever sales of 12,953 units, up 83.2 percent over the year-ago month.


    Toyota reports 1st Qtr results

    Camry, the engine that never quits. Prius, chasing the big boys ( Camry & Corolla ).
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Are you reading the same report as I am. I see the total sales for March down .2% and -4.6% for the year to date. The Corolla is a big FLOP and it is because it is UGLY. Down 21% with their new model. I see the Tundra and Sequoia are doing better than the small PUs and SUVs. The new ugly designs have also wreaked havoc on the Lexus car division, down 14%.

    I don't see a lot to be proud of in that report. I guess if the other automakers tell us their figures we will see who is bleeding the worst.
  • nwngnwng Member Posts: 663
    yea, look at the xA numbers, why they bother staying here?

    auto sales for the whole NA market is going down the tubes. Take a look at GM, someone in dearborn is about to hit the panic button.

    automakers who will got hurt the most this year and next (and probably be out of biz) will be the ones who relies heavily on truck sales and have a weak small to midsize car lineup. Ferrari will be doing allright.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    :shades: The Corolla is NOT a big FLOP as you put it. Now that production has ramped up we are selling as many as before. Keep in mind we ran out of 08's in mid March so of course sales were down. Same with the xA that we didn't have to sell.
    Mackabee
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    The new ugly designs have also wreaked havoc on the Lexus car division, down 14%.

    No, the Lexus car division sales decrease is not due to the design but more likely due to the combination of slow economy, high gas price (they are all V6s and V8s) and a lineup that's showing its age.

    The IS has been on the market for 3 years now and is in need for a refresh (but the sales is actually up 1.8%). The current gen GS was a dud from the very beginning due to mediocrity. The ES is selling strong at around 6,000 units per month and the LS is down due to the slow economy on top of a strong March '07 (The LS was brand spanking new back then). Also, the Lexus car division is down 11.6%, not 14%.

    Yeah, the Corolla is down but I think that's due to the production capacity while plants are still reconfiguring to produce the new version. Also, why didn't you mention that the Yaris is UP 83.2% from last March? With the strong and shinny new competitors from Honda Accord and Chevy Malibu I think it's just amazing that the Camry is still up 3.2% in March and 2.4% year to date. Engine sludge and tranny problem... wha?

    The most interesting number in the March report should be the Tundra, UP 16.8% from last March :surprise: despite the high oil price and let's not forget that March '07 was the new Tundra's first full month on sale! Overall the crossovers and SUVs were doing horribly in March but that's not much of a surprise given the gas is approaching $4 per gallon...

    Source: Toyota March 2008 Sales
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Also, the Lexus car division is down 11.6%, not 14%.

    I was looking at the -14.2% YTD numbers on Lexus. I kind of thought the Yaris stole buyers from Corolla. I think the Sequoia sales are significant while the little RAV4 tanked in sales. The FJ Cruiser going down the drain does not surprise me. It was a nothing vehicle from the outset. I think that it shows people that are going to have an SUV no matter what the price of gas will go for the solid choice. Not some foo foo 4X4.
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    The reason why the Sequoia sales is up is because it's new and that's pretty much the only reason. That's also the reason why the Land Cruise and LX570's sales are up. Due to the high gas price, people are staying away from the SUVs and crossovers, that's the case across the industry and not just for Toyota.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    As Mack noted above the Corolla is just finished it's ramp up. For most of Feb and March we've had 4-20 units on the lot when we should have had 40-60. It was the same last year with the Tundra. I do think that the pricing is optomistic given this economy but we'll see as 2nd qtr progresses and inventories build at normal levels and fuel prices either moderate or go through the roof.

    A vehicle can't be a flop after 4 weeks on the market. See ya in December and then we'll revisit the issue. As to the percentages you have to adjust them for days of selling.

    The Camry is still a wonder. In this down market it beat last year's numbers when the economy was still humming....on two less selling days. Ditto the Prius.

    But I've just finished a study of the top 5 makers and it's not pretty.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Toyota is being hit with the same affliction that all BOF manufacturers are.... rising fuel prices and a dull economy are killing BOF sales across the board. Honda with no BOF vehicles is doing relatively better. GM, Ford and Chrysler with a much higer percentage of BOF vehicles are getting eaten alive...but GM and Ford are moving in the right direction. They must or they will die.

    Toyota/Lexus midsized BOFs
    FJ........... -6200 units
    4Runner.. -8400
    GX........... - 354
    Tacoma... -6552 a surprise? well it is in it's 5th year.

    The entire midsized BOF SUV segment is DOA across the board at every maker. It's finished, maybe forever. Unless one is a diehard offroader this midsized-truck-bases SUV is history. Many people bought them as commuters for the panache, now they are dumping them. The TrailBlazer/Envoy/Rainier triplet is likely to disappear from GM. The Explorer has already been killed as a BOF, ditto the Pathfinder. Can the venerable 4Runner be far behind? That and the FJ will become niche vehicles.

    Land Cruiser... +535 units
    LX.................. +1095
    Sequoia.......... +912
    All new vehicles,
    The entire fullsized BOF SUV segment is on life support. Escalades, Tahoe's, Suburbans, Expeditions are all down 20-30%. The Sequoia is up only because it's new and 2007 was a 'ramp down' year. Again niche vehicles for those that truly need a large powerful tower.

    Tundra.... +11598 units
    This appears to be a good performance but since Q1 2007 was the ramp up for the new Tundra this isn't so impressive. It indicates about 150,000 units for the year which would be a 25% decline from 2007. This is the hardest hit segment with all the full sized truck makers taking it squarely on the chin.
    F-Series .. -15%
    Avalanche. -33%
    Silverado.. - 20%
    There is no joy in truckville.

    With all these down numbers what's going on? Well a lot of people are just sitting on their hands waiting ( maybe by necessity ) to see how bad the downturn is. The Top 3 BOF makers GM/F/T collectively are down about 163,000 units just in the 1st Qtr. Where did these buyers go? Some are definitely sitting this one out doing nothing, delaying a decision.

    Those that can buy ( many of those who want to buy can't because they are massively upside down in their vehicles by as much as $15000 to $25000 ) are leaving the BOF segment for more fuel efficient pastures. Been nice, but CYA.

    Crossovers, Vans and Cars
    GM's Lambda's collectively are up 22000 units
    Ford's Edge is up 11600 units
    Ford's Escape/Mariner duo is up 5300 units
    Toyota's Highlander is up 2300 units
    Honda's CR-V is up 2500 units
    The Pilot and the RAV4 are down... weird both are normally very strong.
    The Sienna at it's 5th birthday just keeps plugging away at about even
    The Odyssey at it's 4th birthday just keeps plugging away down a little.

    The Camry is just the engine that will not quit, record after record ..
    The Malibu is a rising star... +6000 units
    The Fusion, Milan, MKZ are steady and seemed to have reached a plateau
    Honda is screwing up the Accord somehow.. - 4800 units

    Big cars are all down... Avalon, Taurus, Impala.... pricey?
    Small cars are all up ( well almost all of them )
    Aveo ( blech ).. -2900 units
    Cobalt ........... +6100
    Astra too soon
    Focus ........... +9200
    Yaris ............ +11200
    Corolla .......... -21100 ( rollout/ramp up but it's down a huge number, pricey? )
    Scions........... -1000
    Prius............. +3200 more records upon records
    Civic ............. +7400
    Fit ................ +6800

    Summary:
    BOF vehicles ( SUVs and trucks ) are DOWN 163,000 units
    Large cars and sports cars are DOWN over 50,000 units
    Midsized cars are UP 24000 units ( except the Accord -4800 units )
    Small cars are UP 40000 units ( except the Corolla - 21000 units )
    Crossovers are UP 43700 units ( except the RAV and Pilot -9900 units )

    When Chrysler, Nissan, Hyundai and Mazda are factored in then the trends become stronger yet. BOFs are dying quickly. Cars and crossovers are growing even in this dead market. The consumers are reacting forcefully.
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    despite the negative results, is still doing better than Ford and GM, which got hit much worse where it hurts - their trucks.

    But who's doing notably better than Toyota? Why Honda of course. Now that I have seen the next-gen Corolla, I DO expect Civic to outsell it this year, unless Toyota slaps a 4-digit cash incentive on the Corolla for most of the year. Overpriced? Definitely.

    All the automakers that sell trucks, even Nissan/Toyota which are not typicaly overdependent on truck sales for profits, are down so far this year. And that's YTD over YTD 2007, which was already way down by that time vs the year before.

    More significantly, RAV4 sales are down 20%+, while CRV just keeps on cruisin'. That new CRV definitely hit Toyota where it hurts.

    I suppose unless a miracle happens and gas goes back to $1/gallon, this generation of the 4Runner will be its last. :-(

    Nobody needs a truck-based SUV like the Runner any more. I wonder if they will cut back on the number they import - it comes from Japan, so sales profits are doubly hurt by the weak dollar. At least the big trucks are built in the U.S.

    FJ Cruiser was always bound to be a fad-mobile, so after 2 or 3 years, however long it has been around now, it probably doesn't matter much if it gradually wanes in sales and disappears around 2010.

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    "But who's doing notably better than Toyota? Why Honda of course. Now that I have seen the next-gen Corolla, I DO expect Civic to outsell it this year, unless Toyota slaps a 4-digit cash incentive on the Corolla for most of the year. Overpriced? Definitely. "

    Dream on Nippon! image
  • 210delray210delray Member Posts: 4,721
    Great analysis, kudos!
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Very good analysis. Saves us all a lot of googling.

    After driving the Yaris and looking at the Corolla. I would probably opt for the Yaris. They are neither one a car I would want to spend much time in. For 2-10 miles shopping would be the extent of my tolerance. Then I ask myself, WHY? I have a 19 year old LS400 that still runs fine and gets 18 MPG around town. Insurance is $200 per year. If it were to get dinged in a parking lot I could live with it. So I save the $15k - $20k and pay the price for Premium Unleaded. We did drive it more last year, nearly 3500 miles. It is still under 100k miles on the odo.

    I am still not sure if I agree on the BOF vehicles all going away. I think they will narrow down the choices. I like the Explorer/4Runner/Trailblazer size as a rental when in Hawaii. I hate the Rav4/Escape/CRV size as we cannot get our luggage in the back. I would rather drive a Malibu or Camry. However the roads we travel on the Big Island will tear up a car pretty fast.

    The Sequoia does not seem that big to me. Small compared to my old Suburban. I don't ever see myself in a mini SUV. Gas is too small of a percentage of our budget to worry about.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    What on earth is a BOF?
    :confuse:
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Basic Oxygen Furnace ( wait, that was a previous life )

    Body-on-Frame vehicle ( truck based ) as opposed to a unibody vehicle ( cars, vans and crossovers ).
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    What on earth is a BOF?

    And you are selling cars?

    :P
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Sequoia, FJ Cruiser, and 4Runner are BOF (body on frame). It is the reason they are rugged but lousy on gas.

    Highlander and RAV4 have better ride, handling, and gas mileage than any of the BOF Toyotas, all for less initial outlay. But it is the current gas prices that will knock out the 4Runner. And Tundra and Sequoia, but those will be aided in survival by being domestically produced (less dollar-yen issues).

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I will have to argue with you on one statement. There is no way the RAV4 ride compares to the Sequoia. I have not been in a Highlander so cannot say. The RX300 I rode in was not up to the Sequoia either. It was mushy feeling in the corners.
  • mackabeemackabee Member Posts: 4,709
    Yes I am. And I know it all but just can't remember it all at once.
    Mack :shades:
  • nippononlynippononly Member Posts: 12,555
    Well I would say that we should compare small to small, and large to large. So it is really the Highlander we should be comparing to the BOF SUVs given their size.

    I can't imagine that Toyota will keep the 4Runner on a BOF platform with Ford, GM, and Nissan all quitting the game with their SUVs.

    And I expect that with the success of the GM Lambda crossovers, someone at Toyota will, before much longer, see the wisdom in coming out with a "Highlander XL". I just hope they have a nifty hybrid (or diesel) powertrain ready for it if so.

    2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)

  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    Toyota should just drop the BOF 4Runner and make the next 4Runner a "Highlander XL".

    They should also combine the 4Runner and FJ Cruiser to make it a niche product for the true off-roaders. Call it whatever they want but I like the sound of "FJ Runner".
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