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Comments
Of course, we all know what they were thinking when they built the SA plant, and I don't think that is a long-term mistake. But they sure did pick the worst timing to do it, eh? Hindsight, of course, is 20/20.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
After all the SA plant 'only' cost $1.2 Billion. After 5-7 years they should have put through abut 1.0 million units. Amortization of the original investment therefore would only be $1200 per unit. That's very nominal in vehicles going for $30000, $40000 and $50000. Risky yes but not horrendously so. T still has a good balance in its lineup.
The jump in Prius production next year should bring in mega-profits as it enters its 6th year.
Are you trying to tell us that Toyota makes as much money selling 150k Prius as they do selling 150k Tundra trucks? Because the Japanese are such cloak and dagger operations. We will probably not know how much the Prius makes. What happened to the plan to build the Prius in the USA? With 100k less Tundras being built they have capacity in the SA plant. I know that Toyota snubbed Ahnold when he went to Japan to try and get the Prius built in CA. If Americans had the common sense to only buy cars that are at least assembled in the USA, how would Toyota fare?
The Prius is joining the two main money makers in the last two years. It is afterall just a 'Matrix' with a $3000 battery pack that sells for $3000 to $10000 higher than a Matrix.
Oh, BTW the Tundra/Sequoia also make some money but not like the other 3. It's a good position to be in where the most vulnerable product isn't so important that it's a do or die situation as regards profitability ( Chrysler/Ford ). Long term profitability will come in time as volume accumulates.
Edmund's has the 08 CrewMax Limited under invoice at So CA dealers. I imagine they would give you a real deal on an 07 right now. Looking at used Tundra PU trucks and I would say they hold their value pretty well. In my area there are 117 listed used starting at $19k with 6500 miles. That is a double cab SR5. 08 with same eq is $23k.
When you find a sucker to pay MSRP they make a LOT of money on the Sequoia & Tundra. Same goes for all brands and models.
Now T does make a lot more than the retailers do but they also have the investments to amortize and Marketing to support. I'm guessing tho that from the sheer size of the marketing effort that most of the massive profits on the vehicles are being spent to buy its way into the Big 3, for the future.
Just a Matrix with a battery pack???!! C'mon Bob, you've been hitting the bottle again? Or smoking some wacky tobacky??
:shades:
But look at the two together. No they're not the same style but...
..the Pkg 2 Prius is a 5 door hatch with VSC, 6 airbags, AUX, SKS and backup camera and lists for about $23900
..the new Matrix is also a 5 door hatch with 6 airbags, AUX, VSC optional and lists for about $20000.
the Prius is a lot closer to the Matrix than to anyother vehicle in the lineup. When people say that there is no non-hybrid Prius I say look at the Matrix. Same size (approx), same configuration, similar options, similar price point.
mACK
The first question to ask here is: Do the Prius and Matrix share the platform? If not then there is no need to dig deeper.
Yes, it does. Only enthusiasts will know or care that the IS is rear drive and the ES is front drive. At anything less than 7/10, which is all the driving that 95% of everyone ever does, no-one will know the difference between the two. This is the dilemma that companies like Lexus face when trying to decide how to spend their R&D dollars.
Matrix is on the Corolla platform of course. Don't know about the Prius, but what kdh said is essentially true. Same-size cars with very similar performance and features, one with a big battery pack in the boot (and consequently an extra 300 pounds in weight).
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
The closest gasser to the Prius is the Matrix. The Camry is too big and the Corolla is too small. Neither the Camry nor the Corolla can perform the special duties that a 5 door hatch can. But the Matrix can.
The ES/IS entry level lineup is great for Lexus. The ES is the soft-riding glorified Camry which doesn't cost Lexus too much to develop and there are plenty of people who like the Buick-like ride. The IS on the other hand is Lexus' 3-series fighter and draws enthusiasts into the showroom.
Okay now I understand what kdh was trying to say. To a customer's point of view the Prius and Matrix (or even Corolla) are indeed similar products. However, to TMC that's a different story if they do no share the platform because without it that means no reduction in cost and can't share the production line so on the manufacturer's point of view these two are very different products.
Oh yes they will. You'd have to be brain dead not to notice the difference between an ES and an IS. The ES no road feel, kind of makes you wonder if it's actually on the road. The IS on the other hand gives you lots of road feel and handling.
Mack
It is interesting that Lexus has chosen to make the current ES the last to be a gussied-up Camry, in light of recent discussion. I don't think it's because of criticism of the driving characteristics of the car itself however, but more to do with professional reviewers clamoring ever louder with the cry: "why buy an ES (unless you are a badge snob) when you can get a Camry Limited, the same car with a slightly different nose, for thousands of dollars less??"
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
You should see some of the ones we got in this week. Our store sent out this "buyback" letter to hundreds of our customers so that we may "buyback" their current vehicle at top dollar and sell them one at "employee" prices. We (the sales force) hate this kind of promotion because instead of sending it to customer who've had their cars longer thant 4or 5 years, they send them to people that just bought about a year or two. What we end up is with people that are way upside down, want to lower their payments and get a newer car (I never understood that one) etc.et.c.e.t.c.
Mack :shades:
Mack
In the case of Lexus, I would say they are smarting from all the criticism that the GS is just one big snooze-mobile, after Lexus went around trumpeting what a great new sport sedan it was when they introduced it.
So they will introduce a midsize RWD car that has the heritage of snooze-mobile (the new RWD ES in 2011 or so), and that will leave space for the GS to "be all that it can be" as a razor-sharp sport sedan! (as if)
There will probably be more profits for them all around, as they might actually sell a few GSs if they can improve that car's performance and driving characteristics, and they can raise the price of the ES while retaining a lot of its traditional buyers. But it's all a risk in the end.
Mack: thanks for the clarification re: Avalon Limited and Camry XLE. In the past there have been Limited packages for Camry XLE V-6s, IIRC. There isn't one now?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Definitely.
Under only one condition that the ES going RWD will be beneficial for Lexus that's to be able to keep its Buick-like rides and the maintain the pricing to be around $40k. In other words, the "brain dead" customers should not be able to detect that the ES has gone RWD. Also, I have no doubt in Lexus' ability of creating a credible 5-series fighter in the next GS but I do doubt their willingness. With the ES going RWD the next GS better be "all that it can be" because if not, instead it'll be "all the irrelevant as it can be"...
In all fairness, the current GS is not a bad car, it is just so mediocre in just about everything. I have to agree that it was a mistake for Lexus to hype it up like they did during the introduction.
The special edition Camrys are the only ones we get in the Pearl white.
This reminds me of a story. Back in 1997 we had a Corolla DX which back then was the same as an LE but as Toyota likes to do to confuse the customers and the sales folks they scramble the letters every few years or so to keep us on our toes.
Our GSM got creative and picked out a DX in Cashmere beige and sent it out to have leather, moonroof, alloy wheels, wood dash, gold package and rear spoiler. Marked it up to $20,990.00 and put it in the shoroom. The killer was he added an emblem from a 4runner limited to the back of the car. An elderly black couple came in a few days later and bought the thing at full pop. I did not sell it to them. A few months later they came back to trade it on another car. They were waaaayy upside down so they kept their Limited Corolla.
Mack
I think they will move the GS up slightly in size, because it is clear there will never be anything remotely APPROACHING a sport LS, so the GS can fill two bills if you like: going up against the 5- and 7-series as a sort of tweener. However, I doubt their motivation to create a 5-series fighter every bit as much as you do. They have a lot of work to do to get the GS there.
It is certain the brain dead to whom we refer are never going to detect the switch from FWD to RWD, and I am sure Lexus is mainly doing it to terminate the harping from the "gussied-up Camry" crowd.
And while we are talking Lexus, I for one would like to see them drop the GX, which is so obviously a barely-improved and otherwise-rebadged 4Runner. And add manual-shift options to any and all -F models, starting with the IS which I am now seeing commercials for. And take the money saved from designing a next-gen GX and plow every cent into making the next-gen SC coupe a desirable car. Look at the delicious Mercedes coupes! There's no reason in the world Lexus couldn't have at least one, preferably two really nice cars in that vein.
And whatever the Scion mavens are planning for the '09 model lineup, it can't happen fast enough. :sick:
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
In that case you end up with Toyota management that are showing signs of being brain dead.
I know for a fact that customers get upset when they try to trade in a 2 year old vehicle and the dealer lowballs them. I would have bought a new 2007 Denali if the trade-in were right on my 2005 GMC hybrid PU truck. Instead they offered me $7,000 less than I sold it for a year later. I took my cash and bought the new Sequoia at a fire sale price. GM lost a customer that was on their 5 truck looking to buy the 6th.
Here's what I want to see from the Lexus camp:
1. Drop the GX, bring the RX up slightly in size to compete head to head with the X5 and introduced a compact crossover.
2. Manual tranny throughout the IS line
3. Manual tranny on the lower trim V6 GS
4. Manual tranny on all -F cars
5. Kill the current SC430 to end its misery and build the next SC based on the FT-HS. The second coupe can be the IS coupe/hardtop convertible, rumor has it that it'll be hitting the showroom floors next year.
6. A dedicated hybrid model but please do not make a rebadged Prius...
But in Japan, you can buy $75K (or more) Toyotas that dignitaries ride in. Not exactly your run-of-the-mill Toyotas, and certainly not ones you can buy here (mostly). They are designed with a specific goal in mind, and then built to a Lexus-specific spec that cars sold as Toyotas in the U.S. are not.
As anything more than an appliance, the Prius is pathetic, which is why I am in full agreement that Toyota should NOT rebadge it as a Lexus.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Toyota Division passenger cars recorded March sales of 114,897 units, up 1.5 percent from last March. Passenger-car sales were led by Camry, which posted best-ever March sales of 40,487, an increase of 3.2 percent over the same period last year. Camry Hybrid reported sales of 6,930 units in March, up 45 percent over March 2007. The Prius hybrid gas-electric mid-size sedan posted best-ever March sales of 20,635, an increase of 16.0 percent from last March. Yaris reported all-time best-ever sales of 12,953 units, up 83.2 percent over the year-ago month.
Toyota reports 1st Qtr results
Camry, the engine that never quits. Prius, chasing the big boys ( Camry & Corolla ).
I don't see a lot to be proud of in that report. I guess if the other automakers tell us their figures we will see who is bleeding the worst.
auto sales for the whole NA market is going down the tubes. Take a look at GM, someone in dearborn is about to hit the panic button.
automakers who will got hurt the most this year and next (and probably be out of biz) will be the ones who relies heavily on truck sales and have a weak small to midsize car lineup. Ferrari will be doing allright.
Mackabee
No, the Lexus car division sales decrease is not due to the design but more likely due to the combination of slow economy, high gas price (they are all V6s and V8s) and a lineup that's showing its age.
The IS has been on the market for 3 years now and is in need for a refresh (but the sales is actually up 1.8%). The current gen GS was a dud from the very beginning due to mediocrity. The ES is selling strong at around 6,000 units per month and the LS is down due to the slow economy on top of a strong March '07 (The LS was brand spanking new back then). Also, the Lexus car division is down 11.6%, not 14%.
Yeah, the Corolla is down but I think that's due to the production capacity while plants are still reconfiguring to produce the new version. Also, why didn't you mention that the Yaris is UP 83.2% from last March? With the strong and shinny new competitors from Honda Accord and Chevy Malibu I think it's just amazing that the Camry is still up 3.2% in March and 2.4% year to date. Engine sludge and tranny problem... wha?
The most interesting number in the March report should be the Tundra, UP 16.8% from last March :surprise: despite the high oil price and let's not forget that March '07 was the new Tundra's first full month on sale! Overall the crossovers and SUVs were doing horribly in March but that's not much of a surprise given the gas is approaching $4 per gallon...
Source: Toyota March 2008 Sales
I was looking at the -14.2% YTD numbers on Lexus. I kind of thought the Yaris stole buyers from Corolla. I think the Sequoia sales are significant while the little RAV4 tanked in sales. The FJ Cruiser going down the drain does not surprise me. It was a nothing vehicle from the outset. I think that it shows people that are going to have an SUV no matter what the price of gas will go for the solid choice. Not some foo foo 4X4.
A vehicle can't be a flop after 4 weeks on the market. See ya in December and then we'll revisit the issue. As to the percentages you have to adjust them for days of selling.
The Camry is still a wonder. In this down market it beat last year's numbers when the economy was still humming....on two less selling days. Ditto the Prius.
But I've just finished a study of the top 5 makers and it's not pretty.
Toyota/Lexus midsized BOFs
FJ........... -6200 units
4Runner.. -8400
GX........... - 354
Tacoma... -6552 a surprise? well it is in it's 5th year.
The entire midsized BOF SUV segment is DOA across the board at every maker. It's finished, maybe forever. Unless one is a diehard offroader this midsized-truck-bases SUV is history. Many people bought them as commuters for the panache, now they are dumping them. The TrailBlazer/Envoy/Rainier triplet is likely to disappear from GM. The Explorer has already been killed as a BOF, ditto the Pathfinder. Can the venerable 4Runner be far behind? That and the FJ will become niche vehicles.
Land Cruiser... +535 units
LX.................. +1095
Sequoia.......... +912
All new vehicles,
The entire fullsized BOF SUV segment is on life support. Escalades, Tahoe's, Suburbans, Expeditions are all down 20-30%. The Sequoia is up only because it's new and 2007 was a 'ramp down' year. Again niche vehicles for those that truly need a large powerful tower.
Tundra.... +11598 units
This appears to be a good performance but since Q1 2007 was the ramp up for the new Tundra this isn't so impressive. It indicates about 150,000 units for the year which would be a 25% decline from 2007. This is the hardest hit segment with all the full sized truck makers taking it squarely on the chin.
F-Series .. -15%
Avalanche. -33%
Silverado.. - 20%
There is no joy in truckville.
With all these down numbers what's going on? Well a lot of people are just sitting on their hands waiting ( maybe by necessity ) to see how bad the downturn is. The Top 3 BOF makers GM/F/T collectively are down about 163,000 units just in the 1st Qtr. Where did these buyers go? Some are definitely sitting this one out doing nothing, delaying a decision.
Those that can buy ( many of those who want to buy can't because they are massively upside down in their vehicles by as much as $15000 to $25000 ) are leaving the BOF segment for more fuel efficient pastures. Been nice, but CYA.
Crossovers, Vans and Cars
GM's Lambda's collectively are up 22000 units
Ford's Edge is up 11600 units
Ford's Escape/Mariner duo is up 5300 units
Toyota's Highlander is up 2300 units
Honda's CR-V is up 2500 units
The Pilot and the RAV4 are down... weird both are normally very strong.
The Sienna at it's 5th birthday just keeps plugging away at about even
The Odyssey at it's 4th birthday just keeps plugging away down a little.
The Camry is just the engine that will not quit, record after record ..
The Malibu is a rising star... +6000 units
The Fusion, Milan, MKZ are steady and seemed to have reached a plateau
Honda is screwing up the Accord somehow.. - 4800 units
Big cars are all down... Avalon, Taurus, Impala.... pricey?
Small cars are all up ( well almost all of them )
Aveo ( blech ).. -2900 units
Cobalt ........... +6100
Astra too soon
Focus ........... +9200
Yaris ............ +11200
Corolla .......... -21100 ( rollout/ramp up but it's down a huge number, pricey? )
Scions........... -1000
Prius............. +3200 more records upon records
Civic ............. +7400
Fit ................ +6800
Summary:
BOF vehicles ( SUVs and trucks ) are DOWN 163,000 units
Large cars and sports cars are DOWN over 50,000 units
Midsized cars are UP 24000 units ( except the Accord -4800 units )
Small cars are UP 40000 units ( except the Corolla - 21000 units )
Crossovers are UP 43700 units ( except the RAV and Pilot -9900 units )
When Chrysler, Nissan, Hyundai and Mazda are factored in then the trends become stronger yet. BOFs are dying quickly. Cars and crossovers are growing even in this dead market. The consumers are reacting forcefully.
But who's doing notably better than Toyota? Why Honda of course. Now that I have seen the next-gen Corolla, I DO expect Civic to outsell it this year, unless Toyota slaps a 4-digit cash incentive on the Corolla for most of the year. Overpriced? Definitely.
All the automakers that sell trucks, even Nissan/Toyota which are not typicaly overdependent on truck sales for profits, are down so far this year. And that's YTD over YTD 2007, which was already way down by that time vs the year before.
More significantly, RAV4 sales are down 20%+, while CRV just keeps on cruisin'. That new CRV definitely hit Toyota where it hurts.
I suppose unless a miracle happens and gas goes back to $1/gallon, this generation of the 4Runner will be its last. :-(
Nobody needs a truck-based SUV like the Runner any more. I wonder if they will cut back on the number they import - it comes from Japan, so sales profits are doubly hurt by the weak dollar. At least the big trucks are built in the U.S.
FJ Cruiser was always bound to be a fad-mobile, so after 2 or 3 years, however long it has been around now, it probably doesn't matter much if it gradually wanes in sales and disappears around 2010.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Dream on Nippon!
After driving the Yaris and looking at the Corolla. I would probably opt for the Yaris. They are neither one a car I would want to spend much time in. For 2-10 miles shopping would be the extent of my tolerance. Then I ask myself, WHY? I have a 19 year old LS400 that still runs fine and gets 18 MPG around town. Insurance is $200 per year. If it were to get dinged in a parking lot I could live with it. So I save the $15k - $20k and pay the price for Premium Unleaded. We did drive it more last year, nearly 3500 miles. It is still under 100k miles on the odo.
I am still not sure if I agree on the BOF vehicles all going away. I think they will narrow down the choices. I like the Explorer/4Runner/Trailblazer size as a rental when in Hawaii. I hate the Rav4/Escape/CRV size as we cannot get our luggage in the back. I would rather drive a Malibu or Camry. However the roads we travel on the Big Island will tear up a car pretty fast.
The Sequoia does not seem that big to me. Small compared to my old Suburban. I don't ever see myself in a mini SUV. Gas is too small of a percentage of our budget to worry about.
:confuse:
Body-on-Frame vehicle ( truck based ) as opposed to a unibody vehicle ( cars, vans and crossovers ).
And you are selling cars?
:P
Highlander and RAV4 have better ride, handling, and gas mileage than any of the BOF Toyotas, all for less initial outlay. But it is the current gas prices that will knock out the 4Runner. And Tundra and Sequoia, but those will be aided in survival by being domestically produced (less dollar-yen issues).
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Mack :shades:
I can't imagine that Toyota will keep the 4Runner on a BOF platform with Ford, GM, and Nissan all quitting the game with their SUVs.
And I expect that with the success of the GM Lambda crossovers, someone at Toyota will, before much longer, see the wisdom in coming out with a "Highlander XL". I just hope they have a nifty hybrid (or diesel) powertrain ready for it if so.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
They should also combine the 4Runner and FJ Cruiser to make it a niche product for the true off-roaders. Call it whatever they want but I like the sound of "FJ Runner".