Luxury Lounge

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  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    The thing is a 911 is still beyond reach

    Maybe not... I'm in the terrible position of needing to take any reasonable offer. :sick:

    image

    2007 Carrera S Cabriolet, only 7K miles. Original window sticker... $108,595.00

    TM
  • joshuagjoshuag Member Posts: 92
    If you have the choice between an Audi V8 and a Prius, why in the hell would you even think about a Prius. Of course the Prius would be more practical, and more economical, but the difference on how the two drive should make you forget about the Prius completely. I also heard that Audi sales are in the tank at the moment so you should be able to get a killer deal.

    But, before you make these two cars your final choices, have you thought about a Corvette. In the new Motor trend article they compare the Z06 Vette with the new Ferrari, and the Vette won the competition. The article even said it embarrasses the competition. The regular Corvette that brings 400 horsepower starts at around 45k, so make that one of the cars you test drive.
  • lexusguylexusguy Member Posts: 6,419
    I also heard that Audi sales are in the tank at the moment so you should be able to get a killer deal.

    Ask for a "killer deal" on an R8 at any Audi shop and you'll be laughed out of the place. '08 A6s yes. R8, no.

    In the new Motor trend article they compare the Z06 Vette with the new Ferrari, and the Vette won the competition.

    That's Motor Trend for you. I'm sure their ad revenue has probably been cut in half this year. How do you sell more magazines? Splash "Corvette Beats Ferrari!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" on the cover. The magazine has already blown through every last ounce of its credibility, so who cares at this point.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Josh,
    As I understood Dewey's post, he was joking around. Like Dewey, I love the R8, but in real life I'll be making more realistic choices... like the upcoming hybrid CR-Z from Honda, or other fuel-efficient car. The comparison was in fun... as I interpreted his post. Let's see what Dewey has to say about it.

    TM
  • jimbresjimbres Member Posts: 2,025
    That's a beautiful car. I'm sure that you'll have no trouble finding a new home for it.
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    "The reason I said that is because in my opinion the majority of the ES owners are just after the brand/badge/service/prestige-factor so it'll be pretty hard for them to downgrade to a Hyundai. "
    Well, I'm talking about the time when Hyundai finally have the reputation and its own luxury brand. When that happens the luxury Hyundai (whatever brand and model) will hit the value spot currently owned by ES. I'm not sure about the GS luring enthusiasts, as far as I know both ES and GS lure mostly status seekers, while the IS is the one actually attracting enthusiasts.

    "One thing, however... I do like the rear venting treatment between the exhausts better in the BMW E90 M3, which is also optionally available in the standard 3-Series convertible. "
    Not to me. I find those rear vents ugly and adds unnecessary crease to the rear end. If I can afford an M3, I'll definitely try to find a way to chop that ugly rear vent off. I'll probably choose the M3 over the S5, but its easy to choose the A5 over the 335i imo.

    "No one is going to pay $70K for Acura styling and Acura materials quality. Nobody would pay $50K for that, they already tried. "
    True. Acura missed the shot while Infiniti hit the spot, thanks to their clear mission: performance comes first. Infiniti M offers performance worthy of a BMW and adds a second shot with the value bullet. Acura tried too hard, missing all the sweet spots in process. AWD? Audi delivers best. Materials? Audi and Lexus trumps. Value? Infiniti beats them this time. Performance? FWD loses over RWD in the dry and AWD in snow. And now, planning to hit lexus LS? Whoa crazy... :P
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    true. too bad I dont like yellow.... maybe I should develop new interest in yellow. oh well, the yellowcabs dont help... :P :P
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    "... the future for prosperous Detroit is green."

    Obama's started this green thing in his campaign and apparently intended to keep it up. I personally think its a major blunder, with US's lesser dependence on foreign oil the ONLY positive result. He probably conveniently forgets that:
    1) Those batteries are costly, not to mention environmentally unfriendly (non-recyclable for now).
    2) Consumers will need at least 10 years to recoup the hybrids' and electrics' price difference over economy cars
    3) Like Dewey mentioned, even Toyota is said to make no profit from its Prius hybrids.
    4) Volt is junk. (battery lasts 40miles, cost $8-10k, needs replacement approx. every 5-8 years)
    Its like trying to help government save money while we the taxpayers have to lose more. I'm not buying it.... forget costly batteries and focus on fuel efficient economy cars.

    Unlike Jimbres, I actually think there are good looking SUVs out there. Here are the ones I think looks great:
    The pre-2007 bmw X5 tops my list
    Range Rover in HSE trim
    Range Rover Sport (looks good outside, darn ugly inside)
    Infiniti FX (surprised?)
    Escalade (minus the chrome overkill)
    Audi Q7
    There are 2 more, Touareg and RX. Both look bland, but gorgeous inside. Just curious, jim, which part of the Range Rover is a boxed up chrome??? From what I see there's barely any chrome piece on the skin...

    (non-stop rambling thanks to slow days at work, actually its best described as stagnant, absolutely nothing to do...)
  • joshuagjoshuag Member Posts: 92
    Well, your probably right. By the way, I hope you like the CR-Z when it finally comes out. A friend of mine has a 2003 Honda Insight that he has used as a commuter car for 5 years, and he has almost 300k miles on it. It has needed the battery pack replaced twice, but Honda has replaced it both times for free, even when it had 230k miles on it, so they do stand behind their cars.
  • joshuagjoshuag Member Posts: 92
    I agree with you completely that the Hybrid thing is a bad idea, I think companies are doing it just to stay politically correct. I think Ford is heading in the right direction with the new Fiesta coming out. It's not a Hybrid and still gets 40mpg for around 14k dollars. But what about Natural Gas cars. They burn cleaner and the U.S has enough to last decades, and you could drive whatever size car, truck, or suv that you wanted.
  • lexusguylexusguy Member Posts: 6,419
    True. Acura missed the shot while Infiniti hit the spot, thanks to their clear mission: performance comes first.

    People just don't buy cars because they have weather tracking, or a built in Zagat's guide. The last Acura commercial I can remember was entirely about the NAV system. That's fine if you're Garmin or TomTom, but not if you're trying to sell a car.
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    Free battery change? Kudos to Honda. GM's volt is estimated to need battery replacement every 5 years or so (assuming "normal" use, what the heck...). Battery replacement costs an estimated $8-10k. Imagine how much time we'll need for ROI....

    Meanwhile I've just checked local "used car for sale" listings and found this eye popper:
    2007 Escalade, red on cashmere (???). Fully loaded, all options + 2 headrest mounted 2nd row dvds + professionally installed PS2. 22" chrome. 21k miles. Asking price $39,700?????
    Do Escalades really cost that low now??? That sounds like a killer deal (except the chrome wheels). Wow...

    On another note I've just received news that all employees here will be dismissed after lunch, and the office will be closed for the rest of the week. Theyre giving everyone a day off tomorrow. This, according to them, is due to slow activities (to be precise, no activities) that leads to inefficient operational costs. I'm not sure how to react, I like free breaks but the slow business means lesser bonus :sick:
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I agree with you completely that the Hybrid thing is a bad idea...

    I don't want to open up a can of worms here with some giant hybrid debate... but there's no way that I can agree with you on that statement.

    I used to think that way to some extent, and I was very pro diesel... but then I started to witness the fact that the hybrid technology will evolve into plug-in hybrid technology, and eventually cars will be running on electricity instead of fossil fuels imported from those same folks that "wish us harm" and want to destroy us.

    I also have seen the advancements in direct injection gasoline engines, which further diminishes the diesel advantage somewhat... which is good, because gasoline is less expensive than diesel.

    The math regarding "payback" does in fact work for hybrids, especially the Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid. It will work even better for the new upcoming Honda Insight. This has already been proven and published numerous times, so it isn't a subject for debate anymore. It doesn't work on larger models that do not gain enough fuel efficiency from the hybrid powertrain to make a difference that is large enough to offset the hybrid premium. Diesel seems to work better for those vehicles, but I expect that to change over time.

    My daughter's Ford Escape Limited hybrid is now averaging about 32 mpg. That is twice what my wife gets in her 16 mpg MDX. An associate at my business drives a Prius and averages into the 40's. Essentially, I see all of this as a means to cut the price of gasoline in half, whatever it's current price might be... as comparing hybrids to thirstier counterparts. In addition, part of the "recovery" or "payback" comes in the form of resale value, which seems to be very supportive of hybrid vehicles.

    All in all, I just can't agree with you regarding your position on hybrids. I expect to see more hybrid models over time, and I also expect to see them improve even further. I'm certain we will see the price of hybrids decrease, as they become more mainstream and they are produced in larger numbers. Honda is already about to prove that with its upcoming Insight.

    I look forward to buying another hybrid vehicle over time for myself to drive to and from work and wherever traffic is an issue. I am hoping that the upcoming Honda CR-V is a cool vehicle. If not, I'm certain that there will be other alternatives available shortly thereafter anyway.

    TM
  • jimbresjimbres Member Posts: 2,025
    Just curious, jim, which part of the Range Rover is a boxed up chrome???

    IMO, the front is awfully garish, with "R A N G E R O V E R" spelled out in oversized letters. That strikes me as dreadfully tacky.

    Then again, I just don't get the luxury SUV concept, possibly because I'm an old-school snob. To me, a Mercedes E-class or BMW 5-series wagon is just so much more stylish. If I could afford a weekend home in, say, Litchfield County, I'd pick one of those as my country "estate car", to use that slightly pretentious Brit phrase.
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    I agree with you completely that the Hybrid thing is a bad idea...

    I am going to echo what tagman said here...

    Since I don't like micro-analyzing an issue so I am going to make this simple:

    With the hybrids there is AT LEAST hope that one day we will be oil independent. With the smaill displacement engines there is no hope.

    Simple as that.
  • deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Hi Tony,

    Audi R8 is a bit too grandiose for me.
    I am kind of an understated person who would be far more comfortable in a regular Audi.
    So understated that when my father gave me his Swiss gold watch (bought in 1957) I never wore it because it was too flashy. Unfortunately some burglar broke into our house and stole the gold watch. The watch back in 1997 had a estimated value of $25,000. :sick:

    Talking about understated my 83 MB 300D is a masterpiece and I am not the only one who thinks so. Here's a hilarious article of a famous celebrity who drives a 85 MB 300D and insists that his next car will have to be another 1975 to 1985 MB 300D

    link title
  • deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    Ok, ok maybe my jokes need better delivery and a punch line.

    A Prius or a Audi R8---decisions, decisions?
  • deweydewey Member Posts: 5,251
    This car is a beaut. Gorgeous!

    I am in love with it.

    A Porsche S Cabriolet or a Toyota Prius---decisions, decisions?
  • lexusguylexusguy Member Posts: 6,419
    I used to think that way to some extent, and I was very pro diesel... but then I started to witness the fact that the hybrid technology will evolve into plug-in hybrid technology

    There is definitely interesting stuff still happening with the good old gasoline powered ICE, HCCI for one and Hyundai's Lithium Polymer powered Sonata hybrid for two. If they can keep the price to Camry hybrid levels on that car, and actually deliver it on time, watch out.

    As for the Insight, the show car version was certainly neat, but I think the production version is a bit of a let down. They just made it too bland in front.

    image
  • joshuagjoshuag Member Posts: 92
    I didn't mean to say that all Hybrids in general were a bad idea, I think though that natural gas vehicles could be a faster alternative to crude oil. And America has tons of it.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    As for the Insight, the show car version was certainly neat, but I think the production version is a bit of a let down.

    Gosh, not at all. Considering how much of the original design they retained, I'm actually impressed. We all knew the lighting effects would disappear, but most else is intact. For a $19K starting price on this new Insight, I salute Honda.

    The CR-Z will hopefully be the one with a little excitement thrown in.

    TM
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    2010 Prius > 2010 Insight.

    'Nuff said.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    TagMan,

    Now, I understand why/how you changed your thinking about hybrids. If you recall, I asked you this question when you were in the hospital and I did not realize it.

    Man, I wish LJFLX (Len) could see your post and respond. I remember the very lively discussions you and him were having about hybrids and diesels. Maybe he will read this and come in here to say hello. I miss his wisdom. I also hope that this economic disaster is not adversely affecting him. Also, I hope you are back to 100% with your health TagMan.
  • ctlctl Member Posts: 129
    Instead of a power source, it is better to think of hybrid as a supplementing technology to improve the car efficiency/mileage. You can add hybrid tech to gas, diesel, natural gas, or even hydrogen engines, assume cost not an issue of course.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Gosh... thanks a ton, Charlie!
    Yeah, I was also thinking about LJFLX just earlier today. What a coincidence! He is indeed a very smart businessman, and I share your hope that he is doing OK through this "recession". I miss his posts. When checking the archives, upon his departure he promised that if this forum showed enough "class", he would return. That said, it's clear that this place has shown a ton of class for quite some time now. I think it is definately time for our good friend from New Jersey to join us once again. His contributions would most certainly be valued and appreciated here.

    So, have I given you enough information to answer your previous question? Am I off the hook now? ;)

    TM
  • anthonypanthonyp Member Posts: 1,860
    Sorry about the watch Dewey...You are one person who knows who he is, so if things could be done over again, you with the Mercedes, wearing the gold watch, would compliment each other...Did by chance your father give you the car also??That would be a nice ending for this story :) Tony
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    And... as battery technology improves, so does the percentage of all-electric operation... further reducing the significance and demand placed upon the engine, whether it be gas, diesel, biodiesel, ethanol, ng, or anything else.

    I recently read that capacitors are being considered as a replacement for batteries in automotive applications. As you know, capacitors are electrical storage devices, and it makes incredible sense to consider their use.

    :)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    2010 Prius > 2010 Insight.

    Well, let's qualify that. The Toyota folks have their Prius hybrid powertrain tweaked fairly well, while the Insight clearly gets the edge with its fresher approach to what is otherwise a very similar and boring exterior architecture. The Insight clearly gets the nod for the interior.

    So, overall...

    Exterior Style... 2010 Insight > 2010 Prius. No doubt.
    Interior Style... 2010 Insight > 2010 Prius. No doubt.
    Powertrain... 2010 Prius > 2010 Insight. Very likely.
    EPA fuel economy... 2010 Prius > 2010 Insight. Very likely.
    Driving dynamics... TBD, however, most likely equally boring.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Gentlemen
    Here's the new Z4, which will have a convertible hardtop. The link and some pics. link title

    image

    Whatcha think?

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I'll let you off the hook this time :) . I completely understand your change in thinking about hybrids. It looks like it will soon be a "hybrid" world in more ways than one.
  • louisweilouiswei Member Posts: 3,715
    Like I said, I don't like micro-analyzing things so:

    2010 Prius > 2010 Insight (including exterior styling)

    Period. ;)
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I don't like micro-analyzing things...
    2010 Prius > 2010 Insight (including exterior styling)


    OK, Lou... whatever level of analyzing things you like or don't like is fine with me. Everyone has their own levels, usually depending upon what interests them. Some things I don't care much about, and some I do. When it comes to cars, though, I tend to want to know everything about 'em.

    Regarding the 2010 Prius and 2010 Insight, you indicated that you prefer the looks of the Prius over the Insight, and you now know that I prefer the looks of the new Insight over the Prius. To my eye, the new Prius looks a bit too much like a Yaris up front... sorry.

    But, IMO, neither one of those cars is going to win any beauty contest. They have a well-focused purpose... to deliver terrific fuel economy utlizing hybrid technology, and they will be among the champions. I suspect that the 2010 Prius will continue to offer superior hybrid technology. It could be argued that Toyota's approach to true hybrid might very well be better than Honda's IMA, although the Honda system is indeed very simple.
    To help compare their appearance... here's a pic of each car... right next to each other.
    image
    image

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Charlie,

    Tag posted a link to this post/thread on the LS board so I have to thank both you and him for the compliments and well wishes.

    I haven't posted or read all that much in a long time and I'm certainly not going to get into the old German vs Japan debates. Yes I always did think that hybrids would easily trump diesels here in the US. In fact I recently leased an MB GL 450 and the sales guy told me they cringed when they saw a diesel coming in because no one wanted them here in NJ.

    I also thought oil was seriously over-valued at $90 late in 2007 so seeing it run to $147 was literally senseless to me and IMO was all the work of hedge funds. I made a daring bet with my business partner when oil was at $135 for a dinner with our wives at Daniels in NYC. The bet was that oil would see $80 before it saw $150. I collected on the bet last Saturday night. Anyway those hedge fund folks should be criminally prosecuted for the mockery they made of markets and the ruination they caused. They made every market - from Uranium (the most predictably priced commodity on earth) to gold to oil and now to bonds a pyramid scheme while the managers pocketed $10bln+ a year in some cases. Some of those folks made $50bln over the past few years generating nothing for society and tons of money for themselves simply by inflating bubble after bubble in unisom. Guys like Bill Gates made their money the right way and brought a lot of benefits to society.

    I have a friend that is high up on Wall street (and I'll leave it at that) and he told me that at it's height oil futures were more than 90% in the hands of speculators and less than 10% in the hands of the trade. That is sick. The undoing of oil started with the Saudis. Remember when they said they'd pump 2mln barrels a day extra when oil was at $142. They offered that oil only to the trade at $125. The trade walked and said they had no need to buy it. The market had to collapse to under $120 at that point as it was obvious no one was going to be able to sell their $142 oil futures to the trade. So the pyramid scheme was over and the rout was on as eventually all those futures have to be sold to the trade (unless you have phenomenal storage capability). I wouldn't rule out $35 oil at this point.

    Stock market - IMO - way oversold and probably going to have a massive turn around in early 2009. You have companies ike Microsoft trading at 5X 2009 cash flow (when you net out their $25bln in cash vs their market cap). If they trade any lower they'll start buying all their stock back or intoduce a dividend that becomes a 10-15% ROI at these low prices. They certainly don't need any cash. They recently applied to the SEC for a huge bond offering. It's pretty clear they are nearing the point of buying massive amounts of their stock back at these low multiples. So it's my feeling that as well capitalized companies with low multiples start to do this you'll see a floor put on how far certain sectors, if not the whole market can fall to. You also have the start of major price recovery in financial and retail so that also tells me a big bounce is coming everywhere else. Eventually I think we enter a 10,000-11,000 trading range by mid next year.

    Myself - business is strong. We are a media information company and in many cases our data is even more valuable in bad times thean it is in good times. We actually had a record profit and billing year.

    Cars - love the LS460L. Flawless as usual and I've gotten as much as 29mpg on longer highway runs in summer when we don't have those lousy additives. G35 has been great and I'm glad we took it. It handles very well and feels like a lux car inside. My son is driving it more and more (my wife and I less and less) and he will take it off to college next August. I may pick up a 3rd fun car for us at that point but that's a long way off. Merc1 would probably be shocked to see that I leased an MB. I always liked the GL and gave it a shot. It rides beautifully, handles very well. is quiet and luxurious. We took one with rear seat entertainment and what is very surprising is that you can play the dvd without any car power and it'll pick up right where you left off in a movie. i told the dealer that and he didn't even know it had that capability. It must charge some internal battery that retains power even with the car off. I'm hoping it is trouble free and I like the garage with an Infiniti, a Lexus and an MB in it.

    Tag - I hope your fortunes turn around and I promise to post more often. I'm glad your hospital time was quick. Where did you dine in NYC. If I knew you'd have been here I'd gave dropped you a line with my favorite restaurants. Daniels is No.1 on my list. BTW - our pool is going to be featured in NJ Design magazine next year as we finally gave in to them. But we stipulated that it simply be part of a pool issue so that our name is kept out of it.

    Hope everyone else on the board is making it through these tough times.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Tag - I hope your fortunes turn around and I promise to post more often.

    Thank you, and... thank you! I will look forward to your posts and they will be much appreciated.

    Your analysis of the oil price bubble makes me concerned to consider that so much price manipulation can be accomplished like that.

    I certainly hope the markets do in fact rebound. I got out well into the collapse, and still lost a ton in value. Then I went bottom fishing, but not in a huge way, and I still own those. I am concerned that being out of the market will cause me to miss any future rebound, and I will then lock in my losses. But I am leary of the market now.

    Your garage does have a nice blend of vehicles, and merc would certainly be glad to see a MB as one of them. There hasn't really been a whole lot of MB discussion here in quite some time. Audi and BMW have taken a lot of the spotlight, as has the general nature of the auto industry as a whole. We've made some very interesting posts now and then about the Genesis, as we've all been watching it's progress in either belief or disbelief, depending upon our different points of view. There's been intermittent hybrid and diesel discussions, which just happened to pop up again today, and that's when Charlie mentioned that you would be interested to learn that I have changed my position quite a bit on the diesel vs. hybrid debate we had a long time back.

    As far as any major knock-down German vs. Japanese debates... we haven't seen anything like that in a very, very long time. Thank goodness. Mostly just respectful comparisons now and then. I think you'll be surprised to discover what cars some of us own or are expecting to own, and our recent opinions on the most current cars and events. But, I won't spill the beans. You'll see for yourself.

    Anyway, glad you came aboard here again. You made my day! Really. And I know that others will be glad also. Yes, I do remember your beautiful pool. I am impressed that it will be featured in NJ design magazine. That's certainly something to feel good about.

    Later...

    :)

    TM
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    I wonder, is Bangle still with BMW? Cuz if he is, I dare say he's getting soft.
    First the 2009 7, then the upcoming x1, and now this.......
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    Another SUV I actually find appealing is the much forgotten Lincoln Navigator (2002-2006). Whereas Escalade is the king of bling, the Gator is an understated elegance. I'm not sure if anyone else feel the same way but I think the Navigator got this "rich but not extrovert" look, almost classy (if only Ford could drop those chrome wheels, yuck). Technologically superior, with independent rear suspension (Escalade uses solid axles), and 3rd rows fold flat into the floor (impossible to do in the Cadi). The interior was far better than any Escalade's. Good interior materials, soft touch plastic, with enough chrome and real wood.
    I expected better or at least similar quality 2007 replacement, but what I saw was a disappointing, bland looking, cheap quality product. The plastic was hard and brittle. The whole car felt fragile and underdeveloped. So sad...
    If I'm in the market for one of these giants, the 06 Navigator will most likely to place high on my list. Right after Range Rover perhaps...

    Back then I was curious as how Escalade (pre2007 also) ended up the "it" car instead of the Navigator. Sure I actually like the looks better than the current Escalade, but I mean looks alone cant sell now, can it? Then I got the revelation: Navigators (at least around here) was the choice of business execs, doctors, lawyers and the like. Meanwhile Escalade was the choice of celebrities, singers, rappers, movie stars. Escalade receives more press coverage, thus giving way to the icon status it is now. If only the Lincoln received the same iconic status, the current one might not be this trashy...

    My only remaining question is: how come they (celebs) chose Escalade in the 1st place? Was it really just because of the looks? This I'm still wondering. Maybe it's like what James May (or was it Clarkson?) said: Americans have a different idea of luxury, preferring flash over class, put their Escalade next to a Range Rover and you'll understand
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    Len (ljflx),

    It is awesome to hear from you again. I use to peak at the LS 460 forum on a daily basis for months. There was no one posting anything of any consequence. So, I basically forgot about it starting this past September/October. I had no idea that you started posting there again in early November. Just by coincidence, I asked Tag yesterday if he remembers the discussions he use to have with you about hybrids VS. diesels. I was rather amazed to learn about a month ago that Tag had a complete change in his thinking about hybrids and is now on board (I believe he purchased a Ford hybrid for his daughter recently).

    Your great insight about the oil bubble BURST was a thing of beauty. What an incredible collapse. Of course the main concern now is the world wide economic collapse that is hurting so many people. I was warned about a year ago that this was coming by someone I had been communicating with about various commodities for years. Fortunately, my wife and I sold just about all our stocks we owned (had to argue with the stock brokers that I was getting out) quite a while ago and we only have a couple of mutual funds left. My son and his wife did not take the advice and they have lost 40-50% of the value in their account. But they are young and will be OK at the end. The individual mentioned above has a huge difference of opinion with your view about the economy next year and beyond. He sees a rally of the Dow close to 10,000 during the next several weeks (month or so) and then a monumental collapse next year down to 5,000. He sees the dollar plummeting from these levels like it has never done so before while gold rallies to $2,000-3000 the next couple years. He has been buying a lot of physical gold. In my opinion (even though he has been dead on to this point), he will be proven wrong. I do not see this country going to the crapper. I have tremendous faith in our new administration. When Obama speaks, people listen. I think that you will be closer to reality than he is starting in 2009. By the way, what good is gold if it gets as bad as some think? I am not buying an once of the "junk" :). I also think that $35 or even $25 crude is within reach. Who would have thought a year ago that we would be seeing gas prices this cheap again. In my area, 10% ethanol blend was at $150 per gallon. I imagine it is a few cents lower than that as of this minute since crude and gasoline futures continue to collapase.

    It is great to hear that your business is doing well and that your family is healthy. It's also good to see that you are open minded about cars. Who would have thought a few years ago that you would own a Mercedes. In this neck of the woods, We have extended the lease on my wife's RX400H for a year (now expires at the end of April, 2009). At that point we are going to lease the next generation RX hybrid (RX450H) coming out in the spring. It will be more energy efficient and have all kinds of bells and whistles. Let's hope that you and I are right and someone else I know is very wrong about the economy for next year and beyond.

    I will post this message on the LS forum as well.
  • m4d_cowm4d_cow Member Posts: 1,491
    I still wonder why, just why Honda decides to spend billions on a new Insight with its rather complicated system when the much simpler (and cheaper) 1.5L i-Dsi is readily available. It runs on 87octane fuel, green certified in Europe, and pulls amusing 55mpg CITY (drops to 40mpg highway) in Honda Fit w/ CVT tranny. Oh well, maybe I just dont get it...
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Charlie and Tag - thanks but trust me I'm not worth those accolades.

    Charlie,

    What on earth does your friend see - a nuclear war?

    Every financial system has it's checks and balances. If you drive stocks that low companies will just buy their shares back off the market in an attempt to go back private and that will simply push prices back up in the process. At prices as low in some cases as your friend sees you'd be valuing stocks at levels that aren't much more than their cash on hand. I'd love to buy Microsoft at $60bln and find $45bln in cash and a ton of accounts receivables and a non-cash fulfillment liability of deferred revenue. I can't see what he says happening and why on earth would you even get a run-up in the first place. All this stimulus has to kick in and I maintain that once credit gets flowing many other things are fine. I went through the early 80's with much higher un-employment, run away inflation, skyrocketing oil, a 23% prime rate etc. That looked like the end of the world. I just can't even imagine his outlook verifying and what good is gold in a scenrio like that anyway. If things are that hopeless nothing will have any value.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Your analysis of the oil price bubble makes me concerned to consider that so much price manipulation can be accomplished like that.

    Tag,

    Did you see that "corner" of the October 31 oil contract when shorts were forced to cover at $130 while the November contract was sitting at $101. The manipulation going on in oil and commodities was like nothing I could even imagine. If you remember - a long time ago you and I debated oil (it was probably $75 or so at that time) and I thought it should be at $50 or lower. I just sat amazed this summer with oil gaining week after week and mastercard reporting lower and lower gas purchases of 5-10% each month. What was amazing was that mastercard was reporting those amounts in dollars so the actual gas purchased in gallons was a lot worse off than those percentages. India was flat to down and China was the bullwark (you needed something) for usage growth when in fact it was declining as well (once you adjusted for the olympics).

    Did you guys ever discuss the corner Porsche pulled on VW shorts. amazing. For a day VW became the largest market cap company on earth as a result. I think - unfortunately - a lot of folks have no trust in these markets anymore.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    I still wonder why, just why Honda decides to spend billions on a new Insight with its rather complicated system when the much simpler (and cheaper) 1.5L i-Dsi is readily available. It runs on 87octane fuel, green certified in Europe, and pulls amusing 55mpg CITY (drops to 40mpg highway) in Honda Fit w/ CVT tranny. Oh well, maybe I just dont get it...

    Reason 1... The American public's perception of "hybrid" vs. "diesel" is now very clear. Probably over time the diesel perception will improve, somewhat, due to new entries from VW, BMW, Mercedes Benz and others... but the hybrid already has a positive perception now. And it's perceived as "green", which is a bonus.

    Reason 2... Look at the buyer's behavior. It's the Prius that they have favored. The new Insight most obviously targets that car directly.

    Note: Honda's Integrated Motor Assist (IMA) hybrid system isn't really all that complicated. But it's also not very powerful. It is basically what is says... an electric motor is used to assist the gas engine, but rarely does the system run on electric alone, except under ideal conditions... flat-terrain very light cruising under approx. 30 mph can get the car to run on all electric. Toyota's hybrid synergy drive is more of a true hybrid and is more powerful. The system allows for more independent operation of the electric motor, and it can more easily accomplish running on electric alone. Additionally, marrying it to a more powerful engine still accomplishes class-leading fuel economy.

    BTW, I wouldn't actually rule out Honda's introduction of a diesel powerplant here. In fact, I think it is likely to happen in one or more of their SUVs in the near future. But it's pretty clear that the immediate money is in the hybrid, and Honda claims that they have achieved a way to produce the Insight's hybrid system for a fraction of the previous costs associated with their hybrids.

    I'm soooo anxious to see what the CR-Z will be like. I hope they don't dilute it too much. I know LG is a little disappointed with the production Insight compared to the concept. I don't think it's all that bad, but I did notice after my reply to LG that in addition to removing the cool LEDs, the wheels appear to have been downsized considerably, and that's also a shame. I just hope the CR-Z hybrid sport coupe will be a really cool vehicle. Hey, I'm first on the list to get one, or first right of refusal, depending upon how it turns out.

    Also, we should expect to see the Insight's hybrid system offered in the Fit, in the not-too-distant future. Just another example of how Honda is planning on getting even deeper into hybrids.

    And finally,
    Reason 3... Competition. Toyota has publicly pledged to offer every model with a hybrid alternative in the upcoming years. Honda cannot afford to let Toyota run away with too much of the hybrid market share, as they did with the Prius. And, there will be other manufacturers competing for the hybrid dollars as well.

    Plug-ins and all electrics are the wild cards, and we all know they are coming soon.

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    If you remember - a long time ago you and I debated oil (it was probably $75 or so at that time) and I thought it should be at $50 or lower.

    Yes, I remember I expected the price surge, but I didn't expect it to drop so dramatically. You seem to have had a better long-term outlook than I did. But I still think it's likely to go back up significantly above today's prices within the next couple of years. I think this, because the economy is stretched beyond a point of healthy balance right now, and as it recovers, increased oil prices will be a natural part of the economy regaining its balance and health. I know that's kind of simplistic, but it makes sense to me. Likewise, I expect housing prices to recover and stocks to normalize. m4dcow's friend, who he says is holding a lot of gold is going to be sorry, IMHO. All the extreme prices will normalize as we finally get the economy back on track, whether those prices need to go up OR down... also IMHO. Tell me if you think I am wrong in my thinking.

    edit: IIRC, Dewey and I, and maybe LG and Jose, made a couple of brief posts about the VW Porsche stuff, but I don't think there was much discussion at the time. If others posted about it, I don't remember now at this point. I'm sure if you were posting with us at that time, we would have had a much better discussion. ;)

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Edit to post 16621:

    When I glanced at your post, I had it in my mind that you were referring to the Honda i-DTEC diesel. Obviously you were referring to their gas engine that uses two spark plugs per cylinder, known as i-DSI, or “intelligent Dual & Sequential Ignition”.

    Interestingly, the iDTEC diesel engine is the one actually expected to show up here in the not-too-distant future, and will be a remarkable engine for our market, assuming it actually makes it here. It's a very good reason to get excited about clean diesel engine technology... but, again, the market place here is clearly embracing hybrids, and I have recently posted why I think the hybrid technology will prevail and evolve.

    Nonetheless, the reasons why Honda is embracing hybrids still apply.

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    I believe it is precisely because of the oil speculation that the economy turned so fast. At $145 and far out of balance on the upside, this destroyed demand and drove prices higher which now is catching up in lost jobs due to higher costs/lower margins on every product category forcing corps. to cut jobs. OPEC can't cut supply enough to counter this in the short run but watch by June we will be sitting at $75 which is their target. New drilling will wane which is their hope so the tide will turn by next summer.

    U.S. auto is now getting clobbered as well as the global competition.

    Funny how oil is really the catalyst in all of this. People lost jobs then many couldn't afford their ARM's and then everything fell like a house of cards.

    Go Hybrids! Perhaps the future automotive industry in the U.S. can become the Hybrid leaders of the world! :blush:

    Regards,
    OW
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    I obviously agree with your scenario. My friend thinks that due to the $zillions of dollars being printed, that the $ will crash and burn and eventually become basically worthless. The crash happens in 2009. We got into into an unfixable situation. He sees a new world currency. He says that because of the horrible mistakes, greed, corruption over the past 10 years, a total economic collapse is at hand. To his credit, he was predicting this horrible economic crisis from about a year ago. He and his cronies (Jim Rogers for example) are saying that we are basically in a "same old, same old" scenario with Clinton appointees, etc. This nation will never be the same again.

    Obviously, I do not believe in this doom and gloom scenario. I think that your predictions will be closer to the truth. I am an optimist by nature. Anyway, great to have you back.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    How many more years will the greatest nation on earth let itself depend upon foreign oil?

    I find it interesting that "those that would wish us harm" from that Middle East region of the world, stated earlier this year that they were going to wage an economic war on the United States. They threatened to ruin our economy.

    Have they kept their word? Are they, in fact, using oil and banking to destroy us? Yes, I said banking. Check and see who is the single largest shareholder of Citigroup... it's the Saudi Prince Alwaleed. Look up the suspicious deal last year with the Gulf Arab emirate of Abu Dhabi.

    Add to that the massive trade deficit with the Chinese.
    And how many Wall Street scandals have we all been through in the last decades?

    We have had total idiots for leaders in this country for so long, it's amazing that we are still in one piece. And now, there is little support for our very own automobile industry.

    God help us all. There is no one at the helm. I pray that Obama "gets it", and puts this country on the right path, and makes the kinds of changes that will make us safe and strong, and INDEPENDENT... able to stand on our own feet, without giving foreigners who hate us the means to mess us up.

    If driving a hybrid helps, I'm more than willing to do so.

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Member Posts: 2,302
    m4dcow's friend, who he says is holding a lot of gold is going to be sorry, IMHO.

    Tag, actually that is my friend that you are referring to. As I stated above, I think it's nuts to be holding all this gold.
  • ljflxljflx Member Posts: 4,690
    Jim Rogers huh.

    You just gave me all I need to know.

    Don't any of these guys get it that the way we got out of the great depression was printing money and devaluing the dollar. Finally - as far as i'm concerned, the euro is in much worse shape than the dollar and needs to fall about 20-25% more. Deflation is a much bigger concern to me than inflation. we need some inflation right now.
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Tag, actually that is my friend that you are referring to. As I stated above, I think it's nuts to be holding all this gold.

    Oops, got the wrong friend of a friend... LOL. Oh yes, we agree. It just seems way too extreme.

    My question is this... and I address it to anyone that can answer it, and especially our resident financial gurus here to answer, like Len and Dewey.

    Are there ANY signs of improvement to the economy? Any positive indicators at all?

    TM
  • tagmantagman Member Posts: 8,441
    Deflation is a much bigger concern to me than inflation. we need some inflation right now.

    Exactly... and the government should inject a ton of money into the economy to stimulate it, at the sacrifice of increased debt. It will be well worth it, IMO. I hope they do it, do it soon, and do it big.

    Also, after injecting tons of money, make sure interest rates are lowered to extremely low levels for awhile.

    TM
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