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Comments
At least we agree on something :-)
but certainly not with their following conclusions:
1) Diesels are likely to be more successful than hybrids in the USA because of costs.
The big problem is that their own detailed numbers are not suggesting diesel to be more successful than hybrids in growth and market adoption. Their own numbers say the current sales for diesel and hybrids are 545k and 255k respectively, and they are predicting growth to 1.5mil and 1.2mil respectively by 2012. That's roughly 1 million unit growth for each technology, with no clear winner one way or the other. In per centage terms, that's 200% growth for diesel and 470% growth for hybrids! By their own prediction, that means diesels will lose the current 2:1 sales lead almost to parity, 5:4, in the next 5 years. How did they conclude that diesels will be more successful than hybrids is classic self-contradiction. Notice, I'm not even bothering to dispute any "facts" they are presenting; their own numbers conflict with their own sensationalistic headline.
2)Diesels are far more more cost effective in bigger vehicles than hybrids. Most vehicles in the USA are big and that fact in itself suggests the sales advantages diesels will have over hybrids in the USA.
Which technology scales better with vehicle size is quite debatable. The biggest vehicles of them all, cruise ships, seem to have gone from diesel to hybrids in the last couple decades. In any case, what's truely quite amusing is how folks only a few days ago accused me of lacking common sense for suggesting that it's better to apply fuel-saving technology to large fuel guzzlers than to apply the same technology to vehicles that are fuel mizers to begin with, now all jumping on the bandwagon hypothesis that diesel works better for bigger vehicles. So much for logical consistency.
Read the darn article itself, on page 53 is where the numbers are laid out. It looks like I'm not only the one who's good with numbers, but also one of the few who actually bother to read the details, whether it's annual report or financial "analysis."
To me the bottom line is yet to be seen. That is, unless you now claim to have a crystal ball. Otherwise, no one can know with any certainty the percentages of growth in the future regarding hybrids or diesels. Its all just rhetoric as far as I'm concerned.
I didn't write the article, so don't jump all over me, pal. For all you know, the article could have been a hoax, or perhaps you just haven't figured out the method of math that was used. I can't believe you've wasted so much time trying to figure it out. Yikes! :surprise:
I'll do you a big favor, though. Here's the link to original article that I believe Dewey posted.. Go ahead and check it out and then register yourself on that website so you can post your freakin' over-obsessive comments there!! :sick:
link title
TagMan
Dewey brought the article to our attention in post #2065, with the sensationalistic tagline (from original article) reading "DIESELS SET TO OUT-STRIP HYBRIDS IN ACCELERATING US GROWTH" and graciously provided us with the link
http://www.ricardo.com/media/pressreleases/pressrelease.aspx?page=76
If you want to defend the article, go ahead and at least read it for yourself. As far as I can tell, the article doesn't even pretend to be factual. They just made a prediction, with no exacting numerical derivation presented whatsoever. I'm not even bothering to dispute that 1.5 vs. 1.2 mil number, as it is only asserted, not proven at all. The problem is with the tagline. Even if the 1.5 vs. 1.2 mil number were true, the tagline is still wrong! 1.5 vs. 1.2 mil would represent 1 million unit growth each for diesel and hybrid (see page 53 of the report), so where is this "DIESELS SET TO OUT-STRIP HYBRIDS IN ACCELERATING US GROWTH" coming from?
Where is the conflict between the headline and the article?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
On page 53, where the prediction is given, it starts off by describing the current market outline as 545k diesel sales and 255 hybrid sales. In other words, the growth for each is about 1 million units (don't even bother with that 10k units difference as that is well within the rounding error when predictions are made to be accurate only to the 100k's). So, what is the "outstrip the growth of hybrids" headline based on? It's not even supported by the body of the article itself.
I wonder which category they will put diesel hybrids in?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Does that help? Otherwise, I don't care about it. I already get the main point of the article, even if it is worded poorly.
I believe that the wording of the article is ambiguous, no doubt. But everyone here knows the point of the article, even if it is worded inappropriately. For God's sake why does everything have to be so perfect? If I treated my kids that way, they'd grow up with some sort of compulsive obsessive disorder or something. Lighten up already.
TagMan
Tag, trying to be perfect is THE characteristic of mathematicians and engineers
TM
BTW, there is no "slight outstrip" involved because the 1.5mil and 1.2mil numbers are derived from 15% of retail market, or 2.7mil units combined. That means the "graduality" of that prediction is only down to plus-minus 180k range (1% of 18 million). One would indeed have to quibble about decimal points to eek out that 10k units "slight outstrip," and that level of accuracy is simply not there in the original prediction. It's like, a 30k year old skeleton dug up today is not 30k years and one day old tomorrow :-)
You are under no obligation to help the author of that article at all. On the other hand, arguing for the sake of argument is quite evident of "compulsive obsessive disorder or something." (your own words back at you)
1.5 mil - 545k = roughly 1 mil
1.2 mil - 255k = roughly 1 mil
(rounding to 100k's because the 1.5mil and 1.2mil numbers are only accurate to 100k's)
There's no "outstripping" one way or another.
If that's how silly we are getting nowadays, I will go ahead and claim that Honda Civic outruns MB S600 in 0-60's, hey, who cares if the numbers are only 6 seconds off or something. LS460 is way faster than S550, 750Li or 760Li to 60, despite all their 0-60 numbers being about the same! Isn't that kinda plain dumb?
It's not about perfection. The central theme ceases to exist without the numbers backing it up because the whole thesis is about numbers.
The mathematician immediately recognized this as an infinite series -- you'd never get there.
The engineer understood that one could get. . .close enough.
Don't lump engineers in with accountants and other such perfectionists.
It takes 20% of the time to get 80% of the desired result. That last 20% is often not worth the effort. Sometimes it is. Then one needs to exercise what's often in short supply -- experience & judgement.
The only point necessary to derive from that article (and I wouldn't be surprised if Dewey ends up wishing he never even posted it!) is that the author expects a dramatic sales surge of diesels that would rival hybrids.
Now isn't that simple enough?
Cause I don't think anyone here really wants an overdose of mathematics or obsessive compulsive analysis.
TagMan
TM
Well, it all depends on what the definition of isn't is.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
As for the discussion here, we will all get along a lot less stressfully if we can stick to facts instead of personal attacks. "Obsessive compulsive" knee-jerk replies before even any close examination of subjects being discussed don't help either.
http://www.roadandtrack.com/article.asp?section_id=21&article_id=5319
Looks like the TDI won largely because it maximized on the loopholes in the Le Mans rules:
Le Mans rules limit horsepower by specifying intake restrictor plate diameter . . . due the desire to make races more competitive and historically low horsepower of diesels, diesel cars are granted a larger restrictor plate diameter than gasoline cars! The arbitrary enlargement factor was influenced by the old diesel inferiority. No wonder Audi R10 TDI won. . . it's the result of rules made to favor old diesel engines and give them a leg up to be competitive to gasoline cars! In other words, the TDI won because of the special allowance made for diesels, not inherent advantage of diesels!
Brightness, I haven't encountered one single poster here on this thread that is interested in telling lies or deceiving the rest of us... you included. The stress that you describe you are feeling, comes because this forum isn't just about sticking to facts and figures as you put it... it's also about people's opinions, views, beliefs, and perspectives with regards to luxury vehicles and nearly anything related to that main topic.
Again, I am convinced that everyone here is interested in truth, but sometimes it isn't necessary to pin it down to the point of such analytical precision. For example, and I'll give you a simple mathematical example, the number "1.566" can factually and truthfully be rounded to "2", or "1.6", or "1.57", depending on one's desire for exactness, and they are all legitimate representations.
Perhaps that makes the point, perhaps not... but I think it is all too obvious that it is time to allow others their OWN level of exactness... not just yours. Because, as my example points out, they can be ALL be true enough depending upon the situation... and you haven't been appointed as the one who decides for everyone else. Each person decides for themselves.
TagMan
Precision matters when quantitative difference utterly changes the qualitative statement. For example, it's a farce to state that MB S600 and Honda Civic are about the same to 60 as they both can do it in less than 11 seconds. It would be odd indeed if someone incapable of keeping track of sub-10second numbers for whatever reason (perhaps someone waking up from a coma from the 50's, when almost all cars took half a minute to 60mph) start accusing us of being too precise when comparing S600 to Civic in terms of performance.
On the other hand, accusations of "mathematical tricks" when there is none and "obsessive compulsive disorder" are quite unnecessary in the carrying on of discussions around here.
Here's the story:
The world's metropolitan law-makers gathered in New York this week (14-17 May), at the C40 Climate Summit, with the aim of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. One of the routes to do that is right under their noses, however – a diesel Audi A8, shown at the summit itself, that runs on squeaky clean fuel.
The A8 TDI runs on Shell's Synfuel, a gas-to-liquid propellant manufactured from natural gas that's entirely free from sulphur and aromatics.
When burned, Synfuel produces 35 per cent less soot, 93 per cent less carbon monoxide, nine per cent less nitrogen oxides and five per cent less carbon dioxide than conventional diesel fuel. Unlike diesel, it produces no sulphur dioxide at all. And, according to Shell, it can be used in any diesel-engined Audi model without any retrofitting measures.
According to various fuel industry sources, Synfuel has various advantages compared to other alternative fuels. The raw material is available in sufficient quantities to meet global demand, it can easily be produced in petrol, diesel or kerosene form without additional steps like cracking or reforming, and it's compatible with existing engine and fuel distribution technology.
It's also been proven reliable under extreme conditions, says Audi. The company's 2006 Le Mans winning R10 TDi racer ran on a Synfuel blend.
So why isn't it available on the UK forecourts? Well, according to Shell spokeman Adam Newton, it already is, as a constituent part of the company's V-Power diesel fuel. "Gas-to-liquid diesel is already cleaning up cars in the UK, and we've committed to increasing our gas-to-liquid production ten fold by 2010," he told Autocar.
Here's the link to the article:
link title
Just as I keep saying... diesel is just at the very beginning of its success story.
TagMan
Your posts speak for themselves. They are quite representative.
TagMan
TagMan
I am adding below the author's final conclusion of that article linked at http://www.roadandtrack.com/article.asp?section_id=21&article_id=5319
I think it deserves to be quoted as well.
"The leveling of performance within the various classes has certainly produced close racing, but it does not necessarily reflect the real potential of the contenders. We will also have to wait until a potent and experienced manufacturer comes up with a state-of-the-art gasoline-engine LMP1 prototype to see if the regulations applying to turbodiesel-engine cars are too generous, as has been suggested by many. But the sanctioning ACO organization must be credited with having opened the access of its world-famous race to diesel-engine cars, which, up until now, have never had a chance to demonstrate their performance potential in a major event.
Whatever the situation, in the 2007 Vingt-quatre Heures du Mans, the focus will be on the battle between the Audi R10 TDI and the Peugeot 908 HDi, both powered by 5.5-liter V-12 turbodiesels, and that will be worth watching."
In my opinion, it is a fair conclusion.
Race scratch has never been settled on exact equality. To reach that equality is an endless matter of trial-and-error approach, it polluted with big doses of interested biases. A decade ago, diesels were not contenders. Now, they are. They can even be winners under the present conditions. We agree the inherent physic to each kind of (gas and diesel) engines are disparate. To measure the final performance is all that matters from my point of view—not only when racing but also in real life use. We should then agree, race diesels have demonstrated they may perform very well. This is my point. That all sort of diesels can additionally return less consume is then a precious advantage for daily economy, monetary and energetic. Life is experimental, isn't it? Try one of those less powerful, luxury diesels when you come to Euro(pe)land
Regards,
Jose
Yes, definately. The M10 is a looker.
The F3 has been given the green light to production. Considering the way BMW so strongly influences styling on a global basis, we should probably expect all the future cars in the world to look like an F3.
TagMan
May be. But I rather want an M10 as a present for my next whichever anniversary :surprise:
Jose
Meanwhile, I have bragging rights to the only 545i in my community. No other 5 Series either. No 3 Series. One 7 Series. One X3 and 2 X5's...but who's counting?
Many Lexus and MB vehicles sprinkled in good measure among those cursed Cruisers.
If you recall, I originally posted the F3 on this thread, as well as the M10, and for goodness sakes, the M10 is obviously the good-looker, while the F3 is nothing more than a mutant... give it to the X-Men in their next movie.
TagMan
http://www.renault.co.uk/Productpage_home.aspx?m=meganeHatch&mm=meganeHatch
Jose
Gosh, from the looks of some of these mutant vehicles, I wonder if ANYONE of the street can become an automotive designer?... or do you first have to specialize in some sort of lunacy, or perhaps use mind-altering substances as a job requirement? What gives?
TagMan
That's a different engine. About the only thing it shares with the current 3.5L V6 is the displacement.
Put me at the 50-yard line as my starting point in a 100-yard race, I may win a few races against the world's quickest sprinters . . . give me 50 extra stroke handicap, I may even win a golf game against Tiger Woods . . . neither however prove that I'm a great sprinter or golf player.
If the diesels were given an advantage to level the playing field, but are now comfortably winning, surely the conclusion is that they may have had a 'gimme' in this race but that they have achieved parity?
If they had advantages but were losing, it would prove the diesel is inferior.
FWIW, I would love to see Citroen available over here. Would that qualify as a luxury vehicle maker? They don't have the same branding as BMW or MB but they are elegant cars.
I can probably win a chess game against Gary Kasparov if he hadicaps me with a queen and two rooks (only 3 pieces out of 16 :-). . . if I win subsequently with the help of that handicap, would anyone consider my chess playing skills at parity to the Grand Master?
I pretty sure that any advantage has been nullified by now as the the Audi has been castrated to a heavy P2 car at this point.
Whats more, the other P1's [Lola Judd, Lola Creation] aren't even competitive with the P2 Porsche's, [much less the Audi's]
At this point, there is no advantage. If there ever was, I'm sure complaining about the lack of parity pales in comparison to everyone else [actually involved in ALMS] after the gas engined R8 dominated for a much longer time period than the diesel.
Also, you can't just look at displacement, you have to look at weight, over all size, and how and where any given engine goes about making it's power.
@ kicked by the P2 Porsches, so the whole argument is irrelevant. But FWIW, I'll forward your letter to the ALMS rules committee so that they can strip Audi of there 1 championship with a diesel. I'm sure this whole revelation is a new one to them.
Citroen is trying to re-qualify itself into the (entry) luxury level with the C6
http://www.c6.citroen.com/uk/
http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/road_tests/index.htm?id=220
After DS19 and DS21 models (very successful and desired in the '60/'70), Citroen stepped out from the paradise because of the failure of its XM model, back in the '80/'90. Citroen XM was luxurious, elegant and appealing, but not reliable. Citroen could then not resist the surge of the luxury German cars. The brand changed its market strategy and looked for medium and popular cars. The new strategy proved to be good and Citroen has made a lot of money in there! As different from Renault, which is in deep trouble, PSA Group is quite wealthy. Historically, Citroen has had many good technical solutions, well ahead of its time. Now they are World Rally champions. I would celebrate if they can find again a place in the luxury galaxy.
"Sounds like circular logic."
I cannot agree more.
Regards,
Jose
Everything being 100% uniform, well that's Nascar and WWF. You can have it.
I can't imagine only being able to order the car you want. I know in England, alot of the lots are very small and can't hold much inventory, I wonder if special order only applies in the UK? Certainly is reminiscent of the DS models.
After a horrible short-lived XM, my last Citroen was a turbocharged Xantia Activa, with an anti-roll bar electronically controlled, very much similar to that in recent sport-packaged BMWs. Not to be compared with a Bimmer, but that tasteful :lemon: was performer, and a comfort-riding car as well (Citroen means "lemon" in old French or some kind of old French dialect).
Regards,
Jose
French cars are apparently quite literally lemons, at least according to the most recent Top Gear survey.
"Which cars are fighting a losing battle against reliability? You guessed it: they're French. Eight out of the ten least reliable cars come from across the Channel, with the Peugeot 807 propping up the table.
The dismal people-ferrier is joined by two further Peugeots (the 307 and 407), a pair of Citroens (C3 and C8) and a trio of Renaults (the Megane, Espace and Scenic), with only the Range Rover and Ford S-MAX preventing a Gallic whitewash of the bottom ten."
2006 Top Gear owner survey
Not saying that it is all that bad. But the competition has moved on.
Altho the MBZ 3.5L only puts out 18 more horses than the Chrysler unit, it's miles ahead in sophistication and overall refinement. Factor in the stunning(and still best autobox on the market) 7G-tronic transmission, and this should be an indicator for the big turnaround that should boost Chrysler to become competitive on all fronts, not just bold designs such as the cool 300 alone.
The deprivation is starting to get to me. There are so many desirable diesels out there, such as the S420 CDI, 335d, Q7 3.0TDI, 740d (if it's still on sale)... the list goes on. For now, it seems, hybrid is not the answer. Nor is the diesel, and I'm not trying to hide that. But at the moment, diesel-powered cars represent the best combination of efficiency and performance, something that most Americans fail to see.
But I digress. There's nothing I can do it about it today. Perhaps some day I'll be driving my A8L 4.2TDI... for now, I might just buy my wife a "normal" A8 4.2, or an S550, or even a Jaguar XF. It's not the same.
'06 Audi A3 2.0T DSG • '05 Audi S4 Cabriolet • '04 Lexus RX330
I wouldn't say best. The 7G-tronic is among the top autoboxes, but it doesn't match revs and doesn't feel as quick (imo) as the ZF six-speed, which I would say is the best of the best. If the 911 had the ZF instead of its slow, dim-witted tip, I might've more seriously considered buying one.
Precisely right!
Post 2082
designman, "Luxury Lounge" #2068, 26 May 2007 5:46 am
Refer to my post 2082 regarding that UBS Report. So far nobody has contradicted my post since diesels are obviously a far cheaper and better alternative to hybrids especially in the case of bigger vehicles. And its not only UBS/Ricardo that knows this fact but also Honda and BMW.
So I have no regrets in posting that UBS article.
None whatsoever!
But I dont think this UBS article is worth a fight like the one pictured below (Turkish lawmakers fist fighting over constitutional changes during yesterday's session)
Sorry you are wrong.
Hybrid diesels are not incorporated in those UBS forecasts. Hybrid diesels should be treated as a wildcard incremental amount above the 1.2m hybrid and 1.5m diesel figures. Although the author doubts that hybridizing diesels will become a cost effective alternative.
Please refer to the article itself:
We do want to add in two upside ‘wild cards’ to our forecasts: the possible
introduction of the diesel hybrid, and the possible adoption of much more
aggressive regulation on both the GHG and fuel economy fronts.The diesel hybrid ‘wild card’
One interesting aspect of the hybrid versus diesel rivalry is that eventually the
two paths may converge, in the form of a hybridized diesel. We believe that the
diesel hybrid represents the best of both worlds, adding the benefits of
hybridization to the already highly efficient diesel engine. The problem of
course is cost: the penalty at the OEM level (versus simple gasoline) would
probably run to US$6,000 or more, for a full-blown hybrid. On the other hand,
the fuel economy gains would be very large. As Figure 39 illustrates, the
Ricardo Efficient-C full diesel hybrid delivers 75 miles per imperial gallon, and
this in a European-sized MPV (versus a small light sports model). Despite this
impressive performance, we do not foresee diesel hybrids on the road in the US
by 2012, unless there is a spectacular spike in the crude oil price.