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Comments
hahaha... Charlie...
The show hasn't even aired yet!
I think it makes no sense to jump to conclusions before actually seeing the show.
Personally, I will reserve judgement until I have seen it next Tuesday. Then I feel I will be in a better position to determine whether or not the presentation is BS, or factual.
TM
I definitely hope Len gets a chance to see it, because I think Len understands some of the valuation numbers and financial data better than anyone else here. Then, he would be able to tell us whether or not the analysis is factual or not.
EDIT: BTW, so far I am glad I trimmed my position in pre-market, because AAPL shares have taken a small hit today, and of course I bought some back for less than the price I sold them earlier. I wonder if they will really tank at the close, or skyrocket upwards... should be interesting.
TM
IMPORTANT EDIT: The President of the investigating company studying the working conditions in China is just now issuing a very positive report about Apple. He said that Apple has agreed to cut the number of working hours from 60 to 49 hours a week. This guy says this is unprecedented and also said that Apple has been very sincere in trying to improve working conditions. Basically, this gentleman is being very complimentary about Apple.
I mentioned a long time ago, that the amount of money a person has is not the thing `The thing is that a person cares about his money and an advisor has to keep everything in perspective`There is always someone who has ten times more than the next person, but the people are what counts..and an advisor has to treat each person with the same respect. That`s why I am pulling for all the people on our forum and wish them the best fortune regardless of their wealth....Tony
Personally, I just do the best fI can because I have a huge responsibility to my family... well, it's huge to me, at least. And I want the best opportunities for my kids, and I feel good about myslef when I know I am doing all I can to be supportive of them and my beautiful wife of 22 years.
Money is something to respect, but not worship, that's for sure. With the right perspective, it can make life better, but with the wrong perspective it can ruin a person.
I've been thinking about Easter lately... not far off.
TM
Just saw that... but I've got to leave right now for a meeting.
BTW, I think that post "Dont' Buy Apple" on CNBC was reflective of the perspective Tuesday's analysis will most likely present to us. I am not afraid or concerned with hearing negative points of view, as long as they are based upon facts... THAT's what interests me about next Tuesday. I want to see what FACTS are presented to achieve whatever point-of-view is presented by the analyst.
I think it's going to be very interesting.
TM
I saw that pig headed fool on CNBC and I'm amazed that the network didn't put a disclaimer up there like they do with Cramer saying the views were not theirs. Never does a CNBC person ask a meaningful question of someone like this - such as why do you feel so strongly given the growth is much greater than the S&P while the multiple the stock trades at is under the S&P. It just never happens which is why I have no respect for anyone on there save for a small handful of their ecomomists who discuss the broader picture and not individual stocks. It seemed where this guy was going was that his hedge fund mgr is going to introduce a concept that Apple is already draining a lot of money out of households and that the consumer is out of money to keep spending at their growth rates. That's the impression I got. But he was so stupid that he couldn't even explain a basic tenant of why he was taking the position he did. He had one of two purposes, a vendetta against Apple (which is how it came across) or an attempt to push the stock down so that whoever he represents can get in and buy at reduced prices. If I'm Apple I fire off a real nasty memo to CNBC about what happened today because that was irresponsible journalism.
I was SO disgusted with this dude, I was cussing/shouting at the TV. I also cannot believe they allowed such garbage. Apple should indeed send them something special so that they will never forget what happened today
I always thought the "1%" consists of Republicans... LOL.
Rich liberals complaining about a rich company?... Hmmm.
Makes me wonder if Warren Buffett REALLY wants to pay more taxes.
Or has Obama found a way to hypnotize the rich and successful into hating the rich and successful?... and abandon capitalism and embrace socialism?
Damn that Apple... How dare them make quality, innovative products that everyone loves, and actually make money and become successful for doing so!
It makes me think of the criticism thrown at Mitt Romney for being rich and successful. I guess it makes more sense to vote for a failure than a success!
Damn that Apple, and damn Mitt Romney... Successful bastards that they are.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
We usually do agree on these types of things.
BTW, I warned everyone yesterday morning about AAPL making a serious dip very soon, and yesterday panned out and today continues. That's why I sold a bunchg of my shares yesterday morning before the bleeding, and continued to re-position myself more defensively during the day yesterday in order to be ready for this.
EDIT: For better or worse, I just bought a whole lot of AAPL at $598/share. Depending upon what happens next, it should be an interesting session. I'll keep you posted.
EDIT 2: Flipped them for a quick gain... some when the share price went up to around $604, and then later at around $602. If the opportunity comes again, I'll likely repeat the process, depending upon the session activity. could go lower... lots of downward pressure.
TM
With my advertising background, I'd love to be a part of Romney's campaign. If I was....I'd print a gazzillion bumper stickers and place this slogan on billboards and say it on TV.
"Vote for SUCCESS... or vote for FAILURE."
TM
Great. That says it all in 7 words.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Contrast that to some people who are born with silver spoons in their mouths and they end up on drugs or dependent upon automatic income every month to feed their habits, and they never amount to anything.
I don't care what base a person comes from, so long as they use their talents successfully... and Romney has proved that he has good business sense. Unlike the guy in the White House, that's for sure.
Like I said, "Vote for success... or vote for failure."
TM
Charlie,
One thing I've noticed is the journalism on CNBC has gone way down hill since GE sold it. Jack Welch used to watch the show constantly when he was CEO as CNBC was one of his favorite assets. I think that made the on air hosts be on top of their game. Now you have no such policing and it seems to me they've lost some real good people in the process, some to other news networks and some to Fox Business.
Jounalism has gone downhill in many places, not just CNBC.
But, before we hang CNBC ove this upcoming Apple report, let's keep in perspective that before they are going to put this guy on they FIRST put on a guy that claimed AAPL shares would hit $1,650 / share.
So, in all fairness, they did put on the ultra-bull first... and it is reasonable to also put on an opposing point of view.
When I posted all about the $1,650 prediction, and even included a video, no one here had a whole lot to comment. But as soon as I posted about the upcoming show on Tuesday, we have seen the reaction here on this forum... and the show hasn't even aired yet.
I maintain that it makes sense to first see the show and then objectively try to determine the accuracy and/or inaccuracy of the presentation made by the analyst.
And, it's interesting to me that we never heard any comments here in response to the presentation by the guy that predicted $1,650 / share.
Could there be non-objective bias right here on this forum?
TM
Give me a break Tag. You think folks like us, trading the tiniest fraction of shares of the annual volume that the only thing it would change is a number about 20 places to the right of the decimal point have any influence?
I'll give you my comment on the $1650 prediction. I didn't take it seriously so I don't post to things that I don't believe, buy into or take seriously. The low end can only happen if Apple has very disappointing earnings and a bad outlook, two things I seriously doubt. In fact Apple's earnings are so great that they are carrying the S&P and are helping the S&P report significantly higher earnings than the rest of the 499 stocks. In other words take out Apple and the S&P earnings look a lot worse. As for the $1650 it can happen but that depends on how successful they are in China.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/apple-masking-weakness-stocks-economy-15- - - 3905223.html
No, of course not.
I am only referring to objectivity... and the ability to rationally hear two opposing points of view without over-reacting.
I don't post to things that I don't believe, buy into or take seriously.
Well, it doesn't come across like that... and I think it makes sense to respond to both sides of any argument, even if you don't believe one of the perspectives... not just the one that you agree with. That's just how I see it, but you are entitiled to your own POV, of course... which I always respect, and most typically agree with, but don't always agree.
The low end can only happen if Apple has very disappointing earnings and a bad outlook, two things I seriously doubt.
What about market sentiment and trends? And, the analysis of the REAL numbers might prove that the company's share price has gotten ahead of itself. And you talk about earnings? Yes, they are so very important... and you recently posted that the "cost" to make the new iPad was practically unchanged and only up a "tick", but I took issue with that and the recent news reports, and Apple's own admission, indicated that the cost to build the latest iPad is substantially higher than the prior model, and now the current changes within Foxconn could further add some cost pressures. Increased costs and pressure upon Apple's profit margins would have to affect the earnings and therefore the stock's share price.
Like I said, I agree with you most of the time, but I hope it's OK with you when I don't.
TM
I think you must be under the impression that I agree with the bozos on CNBC. I totally believe in Apple and its future and that it is a remarkable company with legitimate success.
My only point is that I WANT to hear what the guy says on Tuesday, even if I disagree. I WANT to have a chance to digest the information he is supposedly going to present, to see if any of it has any validity worthy of consideration. I WANT to do that because I have an investment in AAPL, and because I occassionally day-trade very large sums of money with AAPL shares. I don't want to discard the valiadity of what he might say before he has even said it.
Again, you don't have to sell me on Apple. I am a believer. But I like to hear from all sides.
And lastly... THANK YOU for your contributions here. I honestly appreciate them 100%.
TM
Nobody has a crystal ball that can predict what the market will do. We can only listen to their opinions, look at the research and then get a 4 YO to throw a dart.
robr2... thanks and Yes... and that's pretty much what I've been posting. They are just opinions and I want to hear their different opinions, regardless of whether or not I agree. I think it's a healthy process, and sometimes I pick up a piece of information or a perspective I hadn't considered. That's why I want to hear the guy tell his Apple perspective next Tuesday.
TM
Both parties have serious problems, that's pretty darned clear, IMO. I think it's safe to say that many of our presidential elections have often been a matter of choosing the lessor of two evils... which is a shame, IMO.
But, to avoid a long and heated political debate here... the very simple point I was making was that it seems to me that it's better to have someone in the white house that understands how to be succssful in business than someone who does not. That simple.
TM
Like tag said, none of us can control who our parents are, but as parents we can certainly help to see that our children learn from our example and also enjoy some of the fruits of our labor.
Both political parties have problems, but right now there is a stark difference between the way they would govern. So right now it does make a difference, a huge difference, the difference between success and failure.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Like tag said, none of us can control who our parents are, but as parents we can certainly help to see that our children learn from our example and also enjoy some of the fruits of our labor.
Both political parties have problems, but right now there is a stark difference between the way they would govern. So right now it does make a difference, a huge difference, the difference between success and failure.
Well stated, and all true.
Have a great weekend.
TM
I think once children come into the picture, it become imperative to succeed ..and the bigger the success the better------for all concerned---:) ...You have any thoughts about the supreme court ruling on healthcare ? Tony
I wish I could see anything better in terms of economics from the opposition - it will continue on the same tracks - bend over for the offshorers, more tax breaks with empty trickle down promises, same old wasteful domestic and foreign policy. Same clown, different suit.
I disagree with this as it's too innocent a pov. It assumes everyone is honest. I think many of these people have their own agenda and are trying to influence behavior toward a stock, the market, a commodity etc. In the case of this guy he was a worker for the network, and for the network not to put a disclaimer up was blatantly irresponsible. Again they put up disclaimers with Cramer and whether you agree with Cramer or not Cramer explains things. A strong management team above him at CNBC would be grilling this guy today and IMO never would he have survived if GE still owned the business.
Hmmm. Well, I feel the same frustration, but I believe with all sincerity, that Romney is not fully appreciated for his good qualities and outlook for America. So far, he has been assaulted by his opponents and the current administration, as well as parts of the media. It leaves a distorted and incomplete picture.
Once he secures the nomination and the contest gets played closer to a level playing field, we will have a better picture. It's an important picture we all need to see, because it's an important election. I think he is a moderate conservative, overall, and I think that it's important for America to not have leadership that is too far to the right or the left (as we have now).
We can never agree with everything a candidate stands for, but let's look forward to learning Romney's vision, understanding his policies, getting to know him better personally, and seeing him debate Obama.
I predict we will be more impressed with him over time... in a genuine and legitimate way.
TM
"Apple Prepares to Release iThink
"Apple CEO Tim Cook is expected to announce a product aimed at improving the intelligence of Americans. It's called the iThink and it's about the size of a first-generation iPod but, instead of headphones, the device's wires terminate in sticky pads that are designed to be placed on the user's head. The technology is so revolutionary that it will be limited to distribution in the United States.
"The iThink is designed to stimulate the brain's frontal lobe, the part of the brain most closely associated with reasoning, planning, parts of speech, movement, emotions, and problem solving. Cook says that the external wires will be eliminated in later versions. The company, he says, is working on a way to connect the pads to the device via Bluetooth technology but admits that a second interim step may be required—possibly a small connector attached to the back of the head.
"According to Stanford University cognitive research scientist Aprelaya Durak, who set up test panels to work with Apple to test the device, improvements in critical thinking have been substantial. The improvements are in the range of 0.5% to 0.9%.
"Apple says that it's time for Americans to think different, literally. "Apple has given Americans what it can in terms of hardware," Cook said. "Now we need smarter users and I think we have conclusively shown that the iThink will help to create those users."
"iThink will be coupled with a new desktop-based application called iMemories and a cloud-based service called iRemember. These will be used to store, replay, and share new ideas, thoughts, dreams, and possibly even nightmares if the user signs the appropriate privacy and security agreements.
"Although the device will manufactured in China, the US departments of Commerce and Justice will not allow the iThink to be exported to other countries once they are imported into the United States. "It would be disastrous if these fell into the hands of the certain hostile regimes," said Aymnut N. Stein, senior threat analyst at the Department of Justice.
"Cook says that the first generation iThink will go on sale before the end of this year and will be priced around $999. He notes that a second generation device should be ready no more than 3 months later. The iThink2 (or i2Think; the name hasn't yet been set) is expected to double the original iThink's ability to improve cognitive performance and will sell for about half the price of the original."
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
The opponents have worked to Palinize anyone who looks to have a good chance against Barry Hussein. That why the word "appears" is so meaningful in your post. The opposition has thrown up all kinds of distractions to avoid having someone talk about the economy, as in "It's the economy."
The more they have folks arguing about a dead person in Florida, the populace is not hearing about the decreasing number of jobs. If they can keep everyone debating how many new jobs and what type and debating why fewer people are applying for jobless benefits (they ran out of weeks!), the less people think about the economy.
The more the economy can be depicted in glowing terms, the more the gullible part of the people think everything is coming up rosey. E.g., gas prices going up in 2007/8 got talk about how it's hurting the housing markets distant to jobs because people don't want to buy homes farther from their work; now that same rising gas prices doesn't get talked about in terms of hurting the rest of the economy, housing, grocery purchases, new car purchases, etc.
Which leads me to my overall question: how is the economy depiction against the whiteboard of reality in the economy going to affect the market and AAPL over the new 9 months. Will everyone keep on pretending things are better until after November X, the election, and then the outlook to the future collapse for the end of the year?
While everyone is debating AAPL, I wonder how it will fit into the local economy--or is AAPL its own economy (I vote for the latter).
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
If Barry gets re-elected my bet is another big market crash, that may take years to recover from.
Well... Could be. Here's why... Top issues would be Obama's exploding deficit, and if it is not contained soon, disaster will result. Also, Obama's terrible energy policies. In addition, Obama tax policies that could slam the middle class into oblivion, hammer corporate growth, and severely punish capital investments. How about more Obama social entitlement policies. And, dangerous (potentially catastrophic) foreign policy, efforts towards wealth re-distribution, and class warfare. Continued massive unemployment and the housing crisis persist, and are just more terrible pieces of a terrible Obama puzzle.
All-in-all, a re-elected Obama could be the mother of all nightmares.
Under a re-elected Obama, an important wild card would be the Fed, and what Uncle Ben (assuming he stays) might be able to do, in order to prop up the economy and the markets. But, crutches can't last forever.
TM
Earnings that doubled in a deep recession as well as the article I posted yeaterday suggests strongly it's the latter. As well more and more growth is coming from outside the US and is very hard to quantify in projections. This supposedly super analysis on Tuesday is IMO, and based on the lead-in by the occasional CNBC host, going to be too biased to the US. BTW - if Apple stock runs to $700 in short order has CNBC openned itself up to lawsuits. Could be lawsuits either way because a network boldly stated not to buy the fastest growing large cap stock there is. Amazingly stupid move by CNBC the more you think about it.
Here's that story again if anyone missed it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/apple-masking-weakness-stocks-economy-15- - 3905223.html
Obama has already shown he is not afraid to use executive orders to get around Congress. I am not 100% thrilled with Romney. I am sure he will be more connected with the Congress and able to get meaningful reforms pushed through. Several that you have brought up to control the electronic trading are needed. Oil speculation needs an overhaul to prevent guys like Soros from running it up then shorting it on the way down.
Right now US little guys are at the mercy of the institutional traders.
The commentary strongly states, clearly, that the typical consumer is "stretched" to make ends meet, and also buy Apple products. It clearly makes the point that the REAL economy is not nearly as positive as Apple's financials would suggest, including the stock market, which is essentially partially propped up by Apple.
The disconnect between the real economy and Apple is the focus.
This all means that we can't turn a blind eye to the fact that consumers can only be stretched so far, and that even Apple needs to have an economy that supports consumers' ability to buy their products. While it is also made clear that consumers are very willing to stretch to get Apple's products (which is one reason why things have been sooooo good for Apple), it seems absurd to assume that consumers can always stretch indefinitely, to unrealistic levels.
Stretching itself is a bad indication of the prevailing conditions, and eventually too much stretching becomes over-stretching, and then it reaches a breaking point. Therefore, caution rather than complacency is required.
On a seperate note: I recall that there were some years it wasn't easy for Microsoft to get people to upgrade from Windows XP, and for Intel to get folks to upgrade from computers with Pentium-class processors. I say this because Apple's products have reached a point of being VERY good, and at some point, Apple's newer products MUST improve enough to motivate consumers to buy up from the ones they are already quite satisfied with. I only mention this because in addition to stiffer competition, this natural resistance to readily "upgrade" is something to consider. Given that iPhone sales are critical to Apple's success, it is fortunate that the cellular providers have moderate-term contracts that ultimately allow for phone "upgrades" after a certain length of time.
Anyway, thanks for the post, and those are some of my thoughts... in case you are interested.
TM
I'll have to respectfully disagree with this statement. Running a business is nothing like running a country. You can bring some of the techniques and strategies from business to government but the two do not share common goals.
Romney's expertise is in doing large buyouts and then placing a management group into postion to create wealth for a small group of stakeholders. For the most part that group is told to get it done or I'll get someone else to do it. In government, the goal of the President is to put in place a management that will placate almont 400 million stakeholders while trying to keep his job for another 4 years.
Romney was my governor for 4 years. His only claim to political fame was a failed run against Ted Kennedy for Senate. Then again, nobody could've beaten Kennedy. He was brought in to replace a weak sitting governor who could not have won re-election. In his 4 years in office, he eliminated a large deficit by raising taxes on businesses, eliminating local aid to cities and towns and raising and expanding fees on businesses and citizens. The signature achievement of his time in office was his creation of a near universal health care program - the same one he now says isn't universal health care - ala Obama.
Did he do some good things here? Yes he did. But he had to change his stripes to do so and had to be a politician to do it.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/31/is-google-better-off-killing-an- droid.aspx
Apparently Justice Kennedy will be the swing vote and I can only hope that he votes that the whole Obamacare fiasco is unconstitutional. I wish we did not have to wait until June to find out.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I still think it is un constitutional , as one takes a portion from the earnings, for the betterment of all, and the other says you have to buy something...
It is an important thing for sure....Tony
JUSTICE GINSBURG: Mr. Clement, there are so many things in this Act that are unquestionably okay.
I liked Scalia standing on the 8th Amendment. Reading all 2700 pages would be "Cruel and Unusual Punishment". I think if the justices are honest and not just party line followers they have to find the mandate Unconstitutional. HC should be a state issue. It gets too unwieldy when the Feds get involved. Look at the Dept of Education for a good example of waste with little benefit to children.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460