Guys, lets not forget that there is no empirical evidence that anyone can "time" the market... No one.
Err, I really don't care about your emperical evidence. All I know is that I got out of this market near its top and shortly I will buy stocks for less than they otherwise would have cost. That's my own evidence and it's sure good enough for me!
The very day AIG had their massive upside swing, I was fortunate enough to make the decision to buy it right before it soared, and then I sold it right at the top... I made more money on that one stock deal than I ever dreamed possible.
No one can call it every time, that's true... but the amzing thing is that's not necessary. It only takes one really good timing call to make a fortune... a couple of good calls can be a windfall if taken advantage of.
I am not advocating "timing" as a regular process of investing, as it can lead some people to trouble... but I do wholeheartedly know that there are times it can be done.
How do I know?... quite simply because I've done it! And no matter what you say, you can't take that away.
I also think that some investors are much much better at picking stocks and understanding the market than others.
If you prefer to throw darts and keep whatever stock you land on for the long term, then you go right ahead and do so... but that's not for me.
I get a kick out of the fact that the personal finances of top level Wall St types are usually very undiversified and over leveredged with predictable results. Didn't Bear Stearns Jimmy Cayne have most of his money in Bear and just two weeks before it imploded he bought two adjoining condos at The Plaza?
Either that or they preach trading but hold index funds in their own portfolios (if they are smart).
"I see all the stockbrokers' yachts, where are their customers' yachts?"
Should Germans have to work harder so others can have easy lives? Did Germany not export to other European nations before the EU was created?
Didn't West Germany spend years of subsidy to support East Germany's reincarnation as a viable entity? Is east Germany even there yet?
I always thought the value of the EU was that there would be more strength as a competitive force by banding together (theoretically).
Using that logic, we should ditch Mississippi and Alabama, as they are relative boat anchors from an economic perspective. Think of how strong the U.S. could be if we selectively ditch the weaker states! :shades:
I don't see the EU and the US as being able to be compared directly. The EU is much more diverse, in traits that go back thousands of years.
East Germany isn't there yet, either, it lags in many areas. Decades of Soviet control will do that to a place. Germany rebuilding its forcefully removed family is not the same as aiding its semi-employed free-spending neighbor several blocks away.
The EU as a strictly trade based ideal is not bad. But now it is all-encompassing.
Should Germans have to work harder so others can have easy lives?
Why worry about the Germans having to work harder, how about you and me? A good chunk of the billions that will be contributed to Greece by the IMF will come directly out of U.S. taxpayer pockets.
We (taxpayers) have bailed out everyone else, now it's Greece. Ah, what the heck, those guys deserve 3 months paid vacation every year.
I don't want at all to make a rally of this, but I feel some facts have to be stated. :mad:
" If Germany is to provide a bailout, Germany should dictate the terms." The bailout is being furnished not only by Germany but all Eurozone members, each contributing to in proportion to its Gross Domestic Product. For instance, the Spanish Parliament has just approved to deliver the Spanish quota asked by Brussels: 9,794 Millions of Euros along three years, of which 3,672 Millions will be loaned in 2010. Even more, Great Britain does not belong to the Eurozone but is thinking in providing to the bailout as a mere EU member.
Like it or not, Germany is the heart of Europe. The EU is quickly becoming kind of a EUSSR. A weirdo mix of Soviet and fascist overtones. Only Germany being Europe's heart? This is to assume too much even for a person like me that admires Germany, but not only Germany. And if its like you say, should we EU citizens fall then under the diktat of Germany? Is not enough three disgraceful intents in the past 150 years? Germany already is the nation with more political power in the EU, which is in agreement with its economical wealth. The Euro and the European Central Bank was created under the strict surveillance of the German Central Bank. Germany has the control on which person has to be the President of the European Central Bank in every term of mandate. On the other hand, Germany was one of the founders of the EU, and has been since then freely and voluntarily pushing forward the EU treaties and the aggregation of new Countries. Last but not least, I strongly reject your opinion on Europe or the EU being a 'weirdo mix of Soviet and fascist overtones'.
If all of Europe had even a half-baked German work ethnic, it wouldn't be in the trouble it is now. Should Germans have to work harder so others can have easy lives? This is also to assume way too much, IMO. As well, it is impregnated of a stain of superiority which is not supported by facts. It is in addition offensive for all other Europeans. When living in Germany I found many examples of Germans not working so hardly (as others did). And there is also hard working ethic in European Countries other than Germany. Can I say as a way of example that in the research and superior education center I work for there are many German (as well as from other European Countries and the Americas) pre- and postgraduate students and medical doctors who come to a lazy Southern Country to learn something utile for their professional jobs?
Sorry Fintail, I feel we can only agree to disagree on those extreme political and even, I dare to say, racial/ethnic opinions of yours on the EU :confuse: :surprise: . But as I said, I do not wish that this disagreement be a discussion topic for this forum. So I propose on my part to let stay it as it is. :sick:
What??? You don't think we should bailout Chrysler an GM among with the failures that call themselves financial institutions (but can't see a bubble forming in their most profitable investments the size of Pluto)?? Where would GM sell their Taxpayer/Financed products??
Gotta love the bright side in the current market panic:
Name Price Change %Change Crude Oil Jun 10 75.11 -1.70 -2.20% Heating Oil Jun 10 2.08 -0.02 -1.12% Natural Gas Jun 10 4.02 +0.06 +1.63% RBOB Gasoline Jun 10 2.13 -0.02 -1.14%
Agreed, I finally see my wife has relaxed a bit about loosing 20K for 2 months (Oct -09 and Jan '10) but gaining the same or more for the other 10 months in the 12 month prior. Even though it's a 401K, I rode out all the storms and still enjoy watching the panics and the exuberance!
I always believed in the markets average return of around 8 -10% over the long haul should be just fine .... for me anyway.
I don't want at all to make a rally of this, but I feel some facts have to be stated.
Jose, I always appreciate your insight into European cars and Europe. I think you might like our discussion that is more of a political nature. We wander all over the globe in this thread. No two of us agree 100%, though it is a very civil debate. We are all hoping you recover quickly from your accident. Gary
Whoa... that is no longer true and hasn't been for while. Trying to get back to even on the Dow isn't making 10% a year...and the S&P hasn't really done anything for over a decade. The Nasdaq crushed an entire generation when the dot com bubble burst.
Brokers use that ancient statistic to lure innocent investors.
The only way to truly make it big in the stock market is to be hands-on. BONDS, not stocks, are the investment of choice if you prefer a steady return that will allow you to sit back.
Here is post I can add my two cents, I've been using your stated strategy for a while, and found that it is pretty hard to hit even the low end of 8% return. So I took some option trading courses, and supercharged my returns. I found that it provide so much flexibilities in making good return on investment. My goal for all of my trades are set for 50% plus, and I've been hitting the target on a lot of them, regardless of up or down markets. The only big goof up so far was underestimating the run up made by Apple, but that was quickly corrected.
Why would Spain be providing anything seeing as Spain itself might be swept up in the debt crisis along with its neighbor to the west? Does this money actually exist, or is it just a piece of paper to be written that will be repaid when Spain itself receives a bailout which in reality will be funded by just a few nations? We'll see how much of this money is actually provided. IMO it will end up being German and Dutch money that just happened to circulate. No true gain.
Germany is Europe's heart, that's why Germany was rebuilt after 1945 - the allies knew a Europe without German industry and innovation would be far weaker. No, EU citizens should not fall under German dictation - in a best case scenario, European people would only fall under the demands of their own country of residence - aka, no EU. EU nations should participate only as deeply as Switzerland does now - the laws and control should be no deeper. Switzerland is the one nation in Europe which still has pride and control of itself. Today, a citizen of one nation can be tried for breaking a law that exists in another - committed on the soil of another! It's insane! The EU is a thought-policing censorship state, especially when influenced by German (and other) far-leftists who have had the same asinine false guilt mantra drilled into them that you seem to support. I don't want to hear about the "disgraceful incidents" of Germany - all of which have been paid for many times over and many years before I was born - when Spain itself has a history as full of blood and injustice as any nation on the planet. I don't like hypocrisy.
Germany was an EU founder, but one can argue Germany has not had a truly sovereign government since 1945, or 1933, or even 1918 - which was probably the last time the place wasn't ran by idiots. And yet it remains the industrial and technological powerhouse of the continent. This is no coincidence.
The all-encompassing laws of the EU, the Soviet style assembly, the adoration of thought crimes, the insane immigration policies, the prohibition of national identity - all make the EU hard to embrace. And none of that touches on the economic issues. Now extremist movements on the continent are starting to gain strength - this is a clear reaction to the unjustifiable and thoughtless powers of EU policy.
Not supported by facts? Should we examine the infrastructure, the industry, the technological leadership of Germany compared to others? It has eclipsed France and England several times over, all while receiving significantly less aid monies after the war, and repaying huge debts. That says enough for me. Certainly there are smart and hardworking people from every EU nation, every nation on Earth, really. Maybe even Spain :P But as a society, some work harder than others, and have for a long time. I never meant this to be about any individual person.
You are free to disagree with me, the world would be a boring place if we all agreed. I don't take anything personally. I simply don't like the direction of the EU, which becomes more controlling and less likely to provide a sustainable and progressive future with each passing year. I sorely wish the US would abandon the place militarily, then we could really see how the EU can take care of itself...or should I say, what Germany can buy next. As it is now, the EUSSR is setting a standard which is going to cause some economic darkness.
Here is post I can add my two cents, I've been using your stated strategy for a while, and found that it is pretty hard to hit even the low end of 8% return. So I took some option trading courses, and supercharged my returns. I found that it provide so much flexibilities in making good return on investment. My goal for all of my trades are set for 50% plus, and I've been hitting the target on a lot of them, regardless of up or down markets. The only big goof up so far was underestimating the run up made by Apple, but that was quickly corrected.
It is always good to increase your trading skills and it sounds like you are doing great. I haven't had the chance to get into trading so I follow the 4 rules of long term investment.
I do not expect a huge return. I knew that going in in 1996.
1. Temperament. Can you stomach a 50% loss in the value of your investment portfolio over a two- to three-year period?
2. Time frame. Can you handle 10 years of zero returns from your investments?
3. Training. Are you capable of investing in public companies, diversifying internationally, and understanding what you own?
4. Tacking on. Are you inclined to add new money along the way, particularly as prices fall?
Why would Spain be providing anything seeing as Spain itself might be swept up in the debt crisis along with its neighbor to the west? Does this money actually exist, or is it just a piece of paper to be written that will be repaid when Spain itself receives a bailout which in reality will be funded by just a few nations? We'll see how much of this money is actually provided. IMO it will end up being German and Dutch money that just happened to circulate.
Not so again. Spanish debt is now lesser, both in absolute and relative terms, than that of, e.g., Great Britain. Lesser than that of Italy, Ireland, Portugal and other EU Countries, not to say Greece. Spanish debt is well below the average of EU debt altogether. Spain economy is growing again by now. Spanish Banks (remember, Santander and BBVA at the top) were and are strong; and well regulated. No Spanish Bank has needed bailout in the recent crisis. It is thoroughly false that the Spanish Gov. have been thinking on asking the EU or the FMI for a bailout. The only bad indicator is Spanish unemployment numbers. Though we are indeed getting a difficult time, you shouldn't buy all the rumors that the speculator pack can spread over a well selected Country, in particular if the economical numbers of the prey under the viewfinder are big enough to get investors still more panicked to better fit the speculator goals.
Thanks for your kind invitation to visit the other forum, and for wishing me a quick and good recovery.
I browse from time to time trough the "Forget " forum. Yet I found that as a foreigner I cannot fully understand the intricacies (even the language) of the USA politics you discuss in it. And, more importantly, you discuss them and other issues so abundantly that I cannot follow the issues properly.
What I admire in that forum is that it is indeed a very civil debate. I believe the USA civil society is as divided in political wings as the Spanish population is. But I cannot imagine such a sort of public discussion between say, conservative and liberal citizens, nowadays in Spain. After Mr Aznar years of duty :P and the newly arising issues on the Civil War (Judge Garzón infamously accused of prevarication) we have grown into a very angry society.
So, my greetings from here to all of you in that Forum, and in particular to you and Fintail. I'll continue on peeping in it from time to time. And may be I'll post, but I do not promise the latter.
And, you probably won't get one. Not by sitting back and paying no attention to your investments.
Can you stomach a 50% loss in the value of your investment portfolio over a two- to three-year period?
Why would that be preferrable to avoiding most or just some of the loss?
Can you handle 10 years of zero returns from your investments?
What a waste of 10 years worth of invesment opportunities! Just utilizing the "rule of 72" would only requirte a 7.2% annual return during those ten years to double your investment. That is certainly better than zero! In fact, zero is actually a loss when inflation is factored into the equation.
Are you capable of investing in public companies, diversifying internationally, and understanding what you own?
You should be, otherwise you have no business investing. And if you really do understand investing, you would not be satisfied with zero returns for 10 years.
Are you inclined to add new money along the way, particularly as prices fall?
Depends upon the situation, of course.
It's all yes for me!
I respect your opinion, but I guess to each his own.
So, my greetings from here to all of you in that Forum, and in particular to you and Fintail. I'll continue on peeping in it from time to time. And may be I'll post, but I do not promise the latter.
Fair enough. What I know about the EU is just what the media puts out. So that is very little. I have never traveled to Europe as Fintail has, so lack any real knowledge.
I cannot imagine Spain being any more divided than the USA right now. It is really horrible as the illegals and the leeches rob and steal from the working men and women with impunity granted by the Federal government. All the while the rich elitist sit back sipping $500 a bottle Cognac. Knowing their $billions are safe from the marauding hordes.
That's some nice stuff, and I wish Spain the best of luck, but I can understand the speculation about Spanish debt. Debt is only worth as much as the likelihood of it being repaid. On this side of the pond we are being told things are growing again too...but I don't know if I can buy it. You know the three types of lies, right? :shades:
Besides, as you say, the speculator is in control of this. Facts don't matter to the speculator, and even if Spain is totally solvent, there could be a lot of pain. I know I am not rushing to make investments in that area just yet...but I am riding out the Europe-themed funds I have invested in, as I still believe in the area itself.
The Euro has been overvalued, the EU has been given too much credit for a job that is in reality far from flawless, and now people are questioning the structure and its actions. Deservedly so. The region has just as many simmering problems as the US.
Please don't vanish...I very much like to see a continental opinion here. My personal contacts away from here are only in Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, and England (and all of them are remarkably unhappy with the state of affairs in their respective nations), so your different view interests me. No hard feelings if my opinions have irked you
Please do, Jose. I enjoy your posts & the continental point of view that they provide, here and elsewhere.
On a happier note, it was nice to see Fernando do so well today. Even though he went from 4th to 2nd by others' misfortune, it was nice to see him place so well in his home race.
Antother way to describe most Wall St types is "all flash and no cash". Sure they may have very high incomes (and equally high taxes and living expenses) but very little sustainable net worth ten to 20 years later.
Really, there isn't much difference between them and the Knicks they so love to watch.
Not so again. Spanish debt is now lesser, both in absolute and relative terms, than that of, e.g., Great Britain. Lesser than that of Italy, Ireland, Portugal and other EU Countries, not to say Greece. Spanish debt is well below the average of EU debt altogether. Spain economy is growing again by now. Spanish Banks (remember, Santander and BBVA at the top) were and are strong; and well regulated. No Spanish Bank has needed bailout in the recent crisis. It is thoroughly false that the Spanish Gov. have been thinking on asking the EU or the FMI for a bailout. The only bad indicator is Spanish unemployment numbers. Though we are indeed getting a difficult time, you shouldn't buy all the rumors that the speculator pack can spread over a well selected Country, in particular if the economical numbers of the prey under the viewfinder are big enough to get investors still more panicked to better fit the speculator goals.
Thanks SO much Jose, for this enlightening information. Here in the U.S., we have been hearing that Spain is not much better off than is Greece. Obviously, we are being fed BS by the media, etc. based on what you are telling us. That is definitely good news.
OK, I will say it right up front. I have been a real jinx almost every time I say something positive about the stock market on this forum.
So hopefully, the VERY strong action on the futures tonight will not add to my track record. The Dow futures are now up about 220 points (very nice). This is all obviously due to the Greek bailout that was finalized today by the IMF. Should I get giddy about the stocks (especially APPL) I bought last week? Len and Tag, what do you guys think? The market seems to be responding in a BIG way tonight.
Please, please, don't let this be another fake-out .
I have felt that way many times myself. I hate giving advice on buying stock. Except my wife. The stocks I have picked for her are far outgaining those by her financial advisers. Citigroup at $17 being a big one. I did have her buy more C at $4.50 to dilute her loss. My best pick for her was MCD at $14 several years ago. I am more in for the long haul and do not feel comfortable trading on a daily basis as some here do. Just me and probably limited my possibilities by being so conservative. Over the last 35 years I have done much better with real estate investments. Farms and land being the best. At least until the governments get their 25% of long term capital gains.
I am more in for the long haul and do not feel comfortable trading on a daily basis as some here do. Just me and probably limited my possibilities by being so conservative.
There is nothing at all wrong with your method. The trading methodology needs to feel comfortable for each individual. Some take more risk that others, but in all cases, NEVER, EVER invest in the stock market or commodities (especially commodities) more than you can afford to lose.
Charlie, I definitely think there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the market, and you may be right about tomorrow. But, when it comes down to it, would it be enough to get the market back on track? Or will it be yet another large swing in a highly volatile market?
I think you should feel good about your AAPL stock purchase. Congratulations on that. I hope you bought AAPL (Apple Computer) and not APPL (Appell Petroleum)...hahaha, just kidding. Anyway, you got it at a good price for the long term and I applaud your quick decisive action.
One of my concerns is that the market has not gone down enough to satisfy those that think it has run up too far too fast. I actually think a decline of at least another 1000 points would be good for the market, although please be clear that I am not predicting it, or anything else for that matter... I'm just saying I'd like to see it because I think it would put a better floor in place for the next rally.
Anyway, tomorrow might be interesting, but I am hopeful that the rest of the week will paint a clearer picture, as I still have a lot of reservations and concerns about the nature of this market.
What continues to bother me an awful lot about last week is they still d'ont know the source of the trading that dropped the market a thousand points in a minute and ACN from over $40 to a penny in that same minute. The stock has an EPS of $2.34 so it was trading at a multiple of 1/234th!! At the EBITDA level it must have beenm trading at a multiple of 1/500th. According to the NY Times Exelon actually dropped to .0001! That makes ACN at a penny look like a super expensive stock. This company has an EPS of $4.14. This stuff makes a wrestling match look more honest than the Super Bowl. I'm also not understanding the lingo by the exchanges of stricken trades that took place in that 20 minurte span. If I'm understanding the explanation right it seems that only ACN trades of over 60% of the norm just before that precipitous period (so that would be anything south of about $16) will be stricken. So if you put in a sell at market order you could have lost $24 a share. If anyone else understands the NYSE and Nasdaq statements differently, let me know. I have a neighbor high up at Nasdaq and we're having dinner next week and I'm interested to hear his views of all this. We were both busy this weekend and never saw each other.
What is also crazy here is that all the exhanges that handle high frequency trading are under different rules than the main exchanges. I know how this happened thanks to deregulation, but if you have a market than the rules should be the same no matter what exchange a trade is made on. If I'm buying a product from Amazon than I expect Amazon rules to apply no matter who fulfills a product purcahse I made. NYSE and Nasdaq have to play the role of Amazon. I've never been burned by a buy or sell at market order in my life but from here forward I will never again make such a trade, all my orders will be limit orders from now on.
Finally until better regulation comes in I'm afraid that all thoughts about economic fundamentals and trading are just totally disconnected. Never have I seen Wall street so disconnected from economic fundamentals as the past few years and this disconnect is now a major threat to the economy more and more. We've allowed so much deregulation thru that this place is a pure casino controlled by the players with the most money. Jose is dead on with his views of Soros and others IMO. And I agree with Tag, players like Soros are dangerous and for all intent and purposes IMO, they are economic terrorists, not investors.
What happened last week and the fact that they have still to figure out why it happened is definitely very unsettling, Len. I totally agree with you that placing a market order after that fiasco is dangerous to your health. If there is any honesty in the industry, they ought to find who the culprits were and string them by the "you know what". There are SO many crooks in this business.
In any case, the futures this morning are "going to the moon" as the Dow is up around 400 points due to the $1 trillion Eurozone package decision. Let's hope this is a real solution. But don't forget that I don't call myself Mr. Jinx for nothing .
This morning is looking like it will be huge. Possibly the third biggest opening gain in history.
An opening that huge might be a terrific time to sell some of my remaining stocks if they get pulled into the massive upswing this morning. Then, after the market has settled down, I can always buy them back.
For example, it looks like GE, which I still own, is poised to open on the upside over 6% this morning. I may just have to take advantage of that and sell.
I agree with Tag, players like Soros are dangerous and for all intent and purposes IMO, they are economic terrorists, not investors.
That is spot on. Soros and his Quantum Fund have wreaked havoc on several countries. He was more than likely behind the huge run-up on oil futures that netted him over $2 billion in 2008. He owns many of our politicians, not to be named here. He and those like him need to be better regulated.
An opening that huge might be a terrific time to sell some of my remaining stocks if they get pulled into the massive upswing this morning. Then, after the market has settled down, I can always buy them back.
Who am I to argue with you on this strategy? You have been spot on with the recent moves in the market.
Fernando is getting 120% out of his car, as usual. Some pilots are like 100 m athletic runners, others like Fernando are as quick as them but also like 1500 m strategists.
After a very warm end of April, May came with cold weather and some snow. By now May beachflowers have popped up again. (To my great discomfort given my current immobility. Oh, I must say, my wife is helping me very well in suffering this! :surprise: )
Who am I to argue with you on this strategy? You have been spot on with the recent moves in the market.
Charlie,
With such a huge upswing, I sold all my remaining stocks in my portfolio this morning and have locked in today's gains. I could not resist taking advantage of one of the largest upside openings in history.
Now I must face the difficult task of considering my next purchases... what to buy, and when to buy them. I might even consider alternative investments for a while, other than stocks. I just don't know right now. I am so disgusted with this stock market lately.
The other one is a link to a Live Blog on the current Euro and EU debt crisis. I hope it is of interest for you to have input from this side of the world. The Guardian I cannot help this link is a bit British, but that is just normal, isn't it?
Finally until better regulation comes in I'm afraid that all thoughts about economic fundamentals and trading are just totally disconnected. Never have I seen Wall street so disconnected from economic fundamentals as the past few years and this disconnect is now a major threat to the economy more and more. We've allowed so much deregulation thru that this place is a pure casino controlled by the players with the most money
May I add that if this disconnection between economic fundamentals and trading persists, not only the economic production and people/country welfare but also the modern democracy will be put to an extreme test? Plutarchy in the end.
Regards, Jose Edited: May be I am in a pessimistic mood today (I am not :shades: ) but certainly I am worried in the medium/long run of this laissez faire, laissez passer.
My thinking is that as long as the Fed holds off on tightening to later in the year and has a gradual exit rather than all at once, and the normal cautionary wordings of terrorist threats avoided, is that the market has a long way to expand yet and will cross 12,000 this year. I'm expecting strong fundamentals to continue but as we saw last week we are more and more a casino now than a market that trades on fundamentals. Is there any reason for $75-85 oil when the glut keeps growing and is now a lot bigger than a year ago at this time? Look we always knew that the market had a lot of gambling action but today the market is becoming almost pure gambling with a bet more in line with what you think large hedge funds trades will do moreso than what fundamentals support they can do. In this arena technical analysis is more important than fundamentals and last weeks wild freefall (ACN to .01, PG to $46 and AAPL to $199 - did you realize it got to $199) has even screwed that up.
I think it is important that the SEC put in strict regulation on high frequency trading. That and reducing leverage in commodity markets will bring a lot more trading on fundamentals back into the market.
I hope you bought AAPL (Apple Computer) and not APPL (Appell Petroleum)...
I forget who it was now, but someone got a call from their aunt (?) asking for advice and he told her to buy some shares of Cisco. She did. A few months later he asked his aunt how she was liking the shares. She said the gains were great and she was pleased to see their trucks running all over town.
Trucks?
Turns out she had purchased Sysco and supposedly it was up even more that Cisco.
I hope it is of interest for you to have input from this side of the world.
Jose,
You are such a wonderful human being. We greatly appreciate any and all information you provide for us here on the west side of the Atlantic. I cannot believe all the truly nice people that we have gathered on this forum.
Could you please explain to me the difference between the Eurozone and the European Union? My guess is that the EU is comprised only of those nations that have the Euro as their currency but the Eurozone is a larger group (not all necessarily having the Euro as their currency) of countries. I could be all wrong, however.
I hope that your injuries are healing very quickly and properly.
BTW, I did buy AAPL and not APPL . I was SO excited last evening with the very positive news (for the stock market) that I knew not what I was typing .
Comments
Err, I really don't care about your emperical evidence. All I know is that I got out of this market near its top and shortly I will buy stocks for less than they otherwise would have cost. That's my own evidence and it's sure good enough for me!
The very day AIG had their massive upside swing, I was fortunate enough to make the decision to buy it right before it soared, and then I sold it right at the top... I made more money on that one stock deal than I ever dreamed possible.
No one can call it every time, that's true... but the amzing thing is that's not necessary. It only takes one really good timing call to make a fortune... a couple of good calls can be a windfall if taken advantage of.
I am not advocating "timing" as a regular process of investing, as it can lead some people to trouble... but I do wholeheartedly know that there are times it can be done.
How do I know?... quite simply because I've done it! And no matter what you say, you can't take that away.
I also think that some investors are much much better at picking stocks and understanding the market than others.
If you prefer to throw darts and keep whatever stock you land on for the long term, then you go right ahead and do so... but that's not for me.
TM
I get a kick out of the fact that the personal finances of top level Wall St types are usually very undiversified and over leveredged with predictable results. Didn't Bear Stearns Jimmy Cayne have most of his money in Bear and just two weeks before it imploded he bought two adjoining condos at The Plaza?
Either that or they preach trading but hold index funds in their own portfolios (if they are smart).
"I see all the stockbrokers' yachts, where are their customers' yachts?"
Didn't West Germany spend years of subsidy to support East Germany's reincarnation as a viable entity? Is east Germany even there yet?
I always thought the value of the EU was that there would be more strength as a competitive force by banding together (theoretically).
Using that logic, we should ditch Mississippi and Alabama, as they are relative boat anchors from an economic perspective. Think of how strong the U.S. could be if we selectively ditch the weaker states! :shades:
East Germany isn't there yet, either, it lags in many areas. Decades of Soviet control will do that to a place. Germany rebuilding its forcefully removed family is not the same as aiding its semi-employed free-spending neighbor several blocks away.
The EU as a strictly trade based ideal is not bad. But now it is all-encompassing.
Why worry about the Germans having to work harder, how about you and me?
A good chunk of the billions that will be contributed to Greece by the IMF will come directly out of U.S. taxpayer pockets.
We (taxpayers) have bailed out everyone else, now it's Greece. Ah, what the heck, those guys deserve 3 months paid vacation every year.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Lol, no, but there is plenty of empirical evidence that says bumble bees can't fly !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
always hard to extinguish a Greece fire...
TM
" If Germany is to provide a bailout, Germany should dictate the terms."
The bailout is being furnished not only by Germany but all Eurozone members, each contributing to in proportion to its Gross Domestic Product. For instance, the Spanish Parliament has just approved to deliver the Spanish quota asked by Brussels: 9,794 Millions of Euros along three years, of which 3,672 Millions will be loaned in 2010. Even more, Great Britain does not belong to the Eurozone but is thinking in providing to the bailout as a mere EU member.
Like it or not, Germany is the heart of Europe. The EU is quickly becoming kind of a EUSSR. A weirdo mix of Soviet and fascist overtones.
Only Germany being Europe's heart? This is to assume too much even for a person like me that admires Germany, but not only Germany. And if its like you say, should we EU citizens fall then under the diktat of Germany? Is not enough three disgraceful intents in the past 150 years? Germany already is the nation with more political power in the EU, which is in agreement with its economical wealth. The Euro and the European Central Bank was created under the strict surveillance of the German Central Bank. Germany has the control on which person has to be the President of the European Central Bank in every term of mandate. On the other hand, Germany was one of the founders of the EU, and has been since then freely and voluntarily pushing forward the EU treaties and the aggregation of new Countries. Last but not least, I strongly reject your opinion on Europe or the EU being a 'weirdo mix of Soviet and fascist overtones'.
If all of Europe had even a half-baked German work ethnic, it wouldn't be in the trouble it is now. Should Germans have to work harder so others can have easy lives?
This is also to assume way too much, IMO. As well, it is impregnated of a stain of superiority which is not supported by facts. It is in addition offensive for all other Europeans. When living in Germany I found many examples of Germans not working so hardly (as others did). And there is also hard working ethic in European Countries other than Germany. Can I say as a way of example that in the research and superior education center I work for there are many German (as well as from other European Countries and the Americas) pre- and postgraduate students and medical doctors who come to a lazy Southern Country to learn something utile for their professional jobs?
Sorry Fintail, I feel we can only agree to disagree on those extreme political and even, I dare to say, racial/ethnic opinions of yours on the EU :confuse: :surprise: . But as I said, I do not wish that this disagreement be a discussion topic for this forum. So I propose on my part to let stay it as it is. :sick:
Regards,
Jose
Gotta love the bright side in the current market panic:
Name Price Change %Change
Crude Oil Jun 10 75.11 -1.70 -2.20%
Heating Oil Jun 10 2.08 -0.02 -1.12%
Natural Gas Jun 10 4.02 +0.06 +1.63%
RBOB Gasoline Jun 10 2.13 -0.02 -1.14%
Regards,
OW
I always believed in the markets average return of around 8 -10% over the long haul should be just fine .... for me anyway.
Regards,
OW
Jose,
I always appreciate your insight into European cars and Europe. I think you might like our discussion that is more of a political nature. We wander all over the globe in this thread. No two of us agree 100%, though it is a very civil debate. We are all hoping you recover quickly from your accident.
Gary
http://townhall-talk.edmunds.com/direct/view/.f1d3f68/3875#MSG3875
Brokers use that ancient statistic to lure innocent investors.
The only way to truly make it big in the stock market is to be hands-on. BONDS, not stocks, are the investment of choice if you prefer a steady return that will allow you to sit back.
TM
Germany is Europe's heart, that's why Germany was rebuilt after 1945 - the allies knew a Europe without German industry and innovation would be far weaker. No, EU citizens should not fall under German dictation - in a best case scenario, European people would only fall under the demands of their own country of residence - aka, no EU. EU nations should participate only as deeply as Switzerland does now - the laws and control should be no deeper. Switzerland is the one nation in Europe which still has pride and control of itself. Today, a citizen of one nation can be tried for breaking a law that exists in another - committed on the soil of another! It's insane! The EU is a thought-policing censorship state, especially when influenced by German (and other) far-leftists who have had the same asinine false guilt mantra drilled into them that you seem to support. I don't want to hear about the "disgraceful incidents" of Germany - all of which have been paid for many times over and many years before I was born - when Spain itself has a history as full of blood and injustice as any nation on the planet. I don't like hypocrisy.
Germany was an EU founder, but one can argue Germany has not had a truly sovereign government since 1945, or 1933, or even 1918 - which was probably the last time the place wasn't ran by idiots. And yet it remains the industrial and technological powerhouse of the continent. This is no coincidence.
The all-encompassing laws of the EU, the Soviet style assembly, the adoration of thought crimes, the insane immigration policies, the prohibition of national identity - all make the EU hard to embrace. And none of that touches on the economic issues. Now extremist movements on the continent are starting to gain strength - this is a clear reaction to the unjustifiable and thoughtless powers of EU policy.
Not supported by facts? Should we examine the infrastructure, the industry, the technological leadership of Germany compared to others? It has eclipsed France and England several times over, all while receiving significantly less aid monies after the war, and repaying huge debts. That says enough for me. Certainly there are smart and hardworking people from every EU nation, every nation on Earth, really. Maybe even Spain :P But as a society, some work harder than others, and have for a long time. I never meant this to be about any individual person.
You are free to disagree with me, the world would be a boring place if we all agreed. I don't take anything personally. I simply don't like the direction of the EU, which becomes more controlling and less likely to provide a sustainable and progressive future with each passing year. I sorely wish the US would abandon the place militarily, then we could really see how the EU can take care of itself...or should I say, what Germany can buy next. As it is now, the EUSSR is setting a standard which is going to cause some economic darkness.
I like your post. Thanks!
TM
I do not expect a huge return. I knew that going in in 1996.
1. Temperament. Can you stomach a 50% loss in the value of your investment portfolio over a two- to three-year period?
2. Time frame. Can you handle 10 years of zero returns from your investments?
3. Training. Are you capable of investing in public companies, diversifying internationally, and understanding what you own?
4. Tacking on. Are you inclined to add new money along the way, particularly as prices fall?
It's all yes for me!
Regards,
OW
CIA ranked world public debt by Countries
world public debt ranked in descendent order by Countries
As for the rest of your post, I'll proceed as ditto.
Regards,
Jose
Thanks for your kind invitation to visit the other forum, and for wishing me a quick and good recovery.
I browse from time to time trough the "Forget " forum. Yet I found that as a foreigner I cannot fully understand the intricacies (even the language) of the USA politics you discuss in it. And, more importantly, you discuss them and other issues so abundantly that I cannot follow the issues properly.
What I admire in that forum is that it is indeed a very civil debate. I believe the USA civil society is as divided in political wings as the Spanish population is. But I cannot imagine such a sort of public discussion between say, conservative and liberal citizens, nowadays in Spain. After Mr Aznar years of duty :P and the newly arising issues on the Civil War (Judge Garzón infamously accused of prevarication) we have grown into a very angry society.
So, my greetings from here to all of you in that Forum, and in particular to you and Fintail. I'll continue on peeping in it from time to time. And may be I'll post, but I do not promise the latter.
Regards,
Jose
And, you probably won't get one. Not by sitting back and paying no attention to your investments.
Can you stomach a 50% loss in the value of your investment portfolio over a two- to three-year period?
Why would that be preferrable to avoiding most or just some of the loss?
Can you handle 10 years of zero returns from your investments?
What a waste of 10 years worth of invesment opportunities! Just utilizing the "rule of 72" would only requirte a 7.2% annual return during those ten years to double your investment. That is certainly better than zero! In fact, zero is actually a loss when inflation is factored into the equation.
Are you capable of investing in public companies, diversifying internationally, and understanding what you own?
You should be, otherwise you have no business investing. And if you really do understand investing, you would not be satisfied with zero returns for 10 years.
Are you inclined to add new money along the way, particularly as prices fall?
Depends upon the situation, of course.
It's all yes for me!
I respect your opinion, but I guess to each his own.
TM
Fair enough. What I know about the EU is just what the media puts out. So that is very little. I have never traveled to Europe as Fintail has, so lack any real knowledge.
I cannot imagine Spain being any more divided than the USA right now. It is really horrible as the illegals and the leeches rob and steal from the working men and women with impunity granted by the Federal government. All the while the rich elitist sit back sipping $500 a bottle Cognac. Knowing their $billions are safe from the marauding hordes.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
http://townhall-talk.edmunds.com/direct/view/.f1d3f68/3877#MSG3877
Besides, as you say, the speculator is in control of this. Facts don't matter to the speculator, and even if Spain is totally solvent, there could be a lot of pain. I know I am not rushing to make investments in that area just yet...but I am riding out the Europe-themed funds I have invested in, as I still believe in the area itself.
The Euro has been overvalued, the EU has been given too much credit for a job that is in reality far from flawless, and now people are questioning the structure and its actions. Deservedly so. The region has just as many simmering problems as the US.
Please do, Jose. I enjoy your posts & the continental point of view that they provide, here and elsewhere.
On a happier note, it was nice to see Fernando do so well today. Even though he went from 4th to 2nd by others' misfortune, it was nice to see him place so well in his home race.
Really, there isn't much difference between them and the Knicks they so love to watch.
Thanks SO much Jose, for this enlightening information. Here in the U.S., we have been hearing that Spain is not much better off than is Greece. Obviously, we are being fed BS by the media, etc. based on what you are telling us. That is definitely good news.
So hopefully, the VERY strong action on the futures tonight will not add to my track record. The Dow futures are now up about 220 points (very nice). This is all obviously due to the Greek bailout that was finalized today by the IMF. Should I get giddy about the stocks (especially APPL) I bought last week? Len and Tag, what do you guys think? The market seems to be responding in a BIG way tonight.
Please, please, don't let this be another fake-out
There is nothing at all wrong with your method. The trading methodology needs to feel comfortable for each individual. Some take more risk that others, but in all cases, NEVER, EVER invest in the stock market or commodities (especially commodities) more than you can afford to lose.
Charlie, I definitely think there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the market, and you may be right about tomorrow. But, when it comes down to it, would it be enough to get the market back on track? Or will it be yet another large swing in a highly volatile market?
I think you should feel good about your AAPL stock purchase. Congratulations on that. I hope you bought AAPL (Apple Computer) and not APPL (Appell Petroleum)...hahaha, just kidding. Anyway, you got it at a good price for the long term and I applaud your quick decisive action.
One of my concerns is that the market has not gone down enough to satisfy those that think it has run up too far too fast. I actually think a decline of at least another 1000 points would be good for the market, although please be clear that I am not predicting it, or anything else for that matter... I'm just saying I'd like to see it because I think it would put a better floor in place for the next rally.
Anyway, tomorrow might be interesting, but I am hopeful that the rest of the week will paint a clearer picture, as I still have a lot of reservations and concerns about the nature of this market.
TM
What is also crazy here is that all the exhanges that handle high frequency trading are under different rules than the main exchanges. I know how this happened thanks to deregulation, but if you have a market than the rules should be the same no matter what exchange a trade is made on. If I'm buying a product from Amazon than I expect Amazon rules to apply no matter who fulfills a product purcahse I made. NYSE and Nasdaq have to play the role of Amazon. I've never been burned by a buy or sell at market order in my life but from here forward I will never again make such a trade, all my orders will be limit orders from now on.
Finally until better regulation comes in I'm afraid that all thoughts about economic fundamentals and trading are just totally disconnected. Never have I seen Wall street so disconnected from economic fundamentals as the past few years and this disconnect is now a major threat to the economy more and more. We've allowed so much deregulation thru that this place is a pure casino controlled by the players with the most money. Jose is dead on with his views of Soros and others IMO. And I agree with Tag, players like Soros are dangerous and for all intent and purposes IMO, they are economic terrorists, not investors.
Definitely (thump up).
I've loaded up on BOA and Diageo options. If both stock regained 10%, I would be very very happy :shades:
In any case, the futures this morning are "going to the moon" as the Dow is up around 400 points due to the $1 trillion Eurozone package decision. Let's hope this is a real solution. But don't forget that I don't call myself Mr. Jinx for nothing
This morning is looking like it will be huge. Possibly the third biggest opening gain in history.
An opening that huge might be a terrific time to sell some of my remaining stocks if they get pulled into the massive upswing this morning. Then, after the market has settled down, I can always buy them back.
For example, it looks like GE, which I still own, is poised to open on the upside over 6% this morning. I may just have to take advantage of that and sell.
TM
That is spot on. Soros and his Quantum Fund have wreaked havoc on several countries. He was more than likely behind the huge run-up on oil futures that netted him over $2 billion in 2008. He owns many of our politicians, not to be named here. He and those like him need to be better regulated.
I think you got something here. I would not be surprised if they do indeed blame it on Chinese or Russian hackers.
Who am I to argue with you on this strategy? You have been spot on with the recent moves in the market.
Not even one nor half one
Regards,
Jose
After a very warm end of April, May came with cold weather and some snow. By now May beachflowers have popped up again. (To my great discomfort given my current immobility. Oh, I must say, my wife is helping me very well in suffering this! :surprise: )
Regards,
Jose
Charlie,
With such a huge upswing, I sold all my remaining stocks in my portfolio this morning and have locked in today's gains. I could not resist taking advantage of one of the largest upside openings in history.
Now I must face the difficult task of considering my next purchases... what to buy, and when to buy them. I might even consider alternative investments for a while, other than stocks. I just don't know right now. I am so disgusted with this stock market lately.
TM
I write below a couple of links for you (and the other gentlemen in this forum) to have some information on this side of the current crisis.
The first one is complementary to those links I wrote yesterday
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
As you know well, EU is not the same as Eurozone. Please note as well the position of Spain in relation to other countries.
The other one is a link to a Live Blog on the current Euro and EU debt crisis. I hope it is of interest for you to have input from this side of the world.
The Guardian
I cannot help this link is a bit British, but that is just normal, isn't it?
Regards,
Jose
Edited: I was having some problems posting the first link; here it is just to be copied and past if the link above is definitively not working: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
May I add that if this disconnection between economic fundamentals and trading persists, not only the economic production and people/country welfare but also the modern democracy will be put to an extreme test? Plutarchy in the end.
Regards,
Jose
Edited: May be I am in a pessimistic mood today (I am not :shades: ) but certainly I am worried in the medium/long run of this laissez faire, laissez passer.
My thinking is that as long as the Fed holds off on tightening to later in the year and has a gradual exit rather than all at once, and the normal cautionary wordings of terrorist threats avoided, is that the market has a long way to expand yet and will cross 12,000 this year. I'm expecting strong fundamentals to continue but as we saw last week we are more and more a casino now than a market that trades on fundamentals. Is there any reason for $75-85 oil when the glut keeps growing and is now a lot bigger than a year ago at this time? Look we always knew that the market had a lot of gambling action but today the market is becoming almost pure gambling with a bet more in line with what you think large hedge funds trades will do moreso than what fundamentals support they can do. In this arena technical analysis is more important than fundamentals and last weeks wild freefall (ACN to .01, PG to $46 and AAPL to $199 - did you realize it got to $199) has even screwed that up.
I think it is important that the SEC put in strict regulation on high frequency trading. That and reducing leverage in commodity markets will bring a lot more trading on fundamentals back into the market.
I forget who it was now, but someone got a call from their aunt (?) asking for advice and he told her to buy some shares of Cisco. She did. A few months later he asked his aunt how she was liking the shares. She said the gains were great and she was pleased to see their trucks running all over town.
Trucks?
Turns out she had purchased Sysco and supposedly it was up even more that Cisco.
Don't knock throwing darts, lol.
Jose,
You are such a wonderful human being. We greatly appreciate any and all information you provide for us here on the west side of the Atlantic. I cannot believe all the truly nice people that we have gathered on this forum.
Could you please explain to me the difference between the Eurozone and the European Union? My guess is that the EU is comprised only of those nations that have the Euro as their currency but the Eurozone is a larger group (not all necessarily having the Euro as their currency) of countries. I could be all wrong, however.
I hope that your injuries are healing very quickly and properly.